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- Apr 29, 2010
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Ukraine wameishiwa na watu wa kuwasajili jeshini na wakati hauko rafiki nao.
Kwa maoni ya wachambuzi wa kijeshi wa The Telegraph, haya mapigo ya droni yanayotangazwa na Ukraine hayawezi kabisa kubadili kushindwa kwa taifa hilo mbele ya Urusi.
Ukraine imetangaza kuteka kijiji cha Robotyne kuelekea bahari ya Azov, lakini muda hauko upande wao na hata kama watafika bahari hiyo, hawana nyenzo za kubaki kuligawa jeshi la Urusi baina ya Crimea na Urusi bara.
Jeshi la Urusi lilianza na askari milioni moja au chini yake kidogo, hata ikiwa wamepungua wengi kwa sababu yoyote ile, bado wamebakiwa na kundi kubwa la watu milioni 7 wanaoweza kuingizwa jeshini, wenye umri kati ya miaka 18 mpaka 26, juu ya kwamba umri wa kuingia jeshini umepandishwa mpaka miaka 31.
Kwa upande wa Ukraine, iliyokuwa na raia milioni 44, milioni 6 kati yao wamekimbia vita kwenda nje ya nchi. Jeshi lake lilikuwa na wapiganaji 200,000 tu na kundi lililokuwa na hamasa ya kupigana lote limeshafanya hivyo mwaka wa mwanzo wa vita. Wamebaki vijana 1.5 milioni tu ambao wamekuwa waoga sana kwenda vitani chini ya bango "it’s OK to be afraid". Hii ni baada ya askari 70,000 kufa au kuumia na kutoweza kupigana tena na ni jibu kwa raisi Zelensky mwenyewe ambaye hivi karibuni alipohudhuria mafunzo ya kijeshi kwa wanajeshi wapya vijana aliwaambia wasiwe na woga kupigana kuilinda nchi yao.
Hayo yakitokea kwa mujibu wa The Telegraph, hali ya hewa inayofuatia itaizuia Ukraine kusonga mbele, na wale waliosonga mbele wako hatarini kushambuliwa, huku nchi marafiki wa Ukraine wakiwa wazito kuendelea kuisaidia silaha, nchi hiyo mbali na ahadi za kila siku.
Wakati Marekani ikiahidi kutoa silaha, lakini katika nguvu kazi ya kupigana hawawezi kufanya hivyo.Wakati huo huo kampeni za uchaguzi mwakani zimeanza nchini humu huku waktitokea wagombea ambao wanapinga kuendelea kutoa misaada kwa Ukraine inayoelekea kushindwa wakitaja kuwa Marekani inahitaji kujilinda yenyewe kwanza dhidi ya kuvamiwa huko nyumbani na kwamba mali zinazopelekwa Ukraine zinahitajika sana kwa uchumi wa ndani,
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The war in Ukraine is now one of attrition, fought on terms that increasingly favour Moscow. Kyiv has dealt admirably with shortages of Western equipment so far, but a shortage of manpower – which it is already having to confront – may prove fatal.
Broadly speaking, Kyiv’s highly anticipated counter-offensive has gathered much-needed momentum in recent weeks, with hard-fought gains around the strategically important village of Robotyne. If this falls, the road to the Azov sea will be in sight. If Ukrainian forces can reach the coast, they will split the land-bridge connecting Russia with Crimea, potentially routing Moscow’s troops.
Ukraine’s forces, however, are not just fighting massed defences and artillery fire. They are also fighting against time. Having first penetrated the formidable Russian minefields four weeks ago, Kyiv is desperate to exploit its early successes before mounting casualties and autumn rains destroy its fighting capability.
The summer has been wet, and the autumn months traditionally bring heavy rains which turn the soft ground of eastern Europe into a thick mud as tanks, armour and artillery churn the battlefield. This can all but halt meaningful advances, locking armies into place and buying the Russians time to add to the deeply dug trench networks and multi-layered minefields that have made retaking lost territory such hard going.
Perhaps more important, however, is the heavy toll the fighting is taking on the people of Ukraine. The Russian armed forces began the war with an official strength of one million, and a true strength estimated by some analysts at between 700,000 and 800,000.
A further two million men – former conscripts and contract servicemen – were available in the reserves, and some seven million men of conscription age (18-26) left to draw on, even before the Kremlin raised the age limit to 31.
Ukraine, meanwhile, had a pre-war population of 44 million. By the end of the first year of the war, some six million had fled abroad. The armed forces number around 200,000 active personnel, roughly the same again in reserve, and can draw on another 1.5 million fighting-age males.
It’s a brutal but simple calculation: Kyiv is running out of men. US sources have calculated that its armed forces have lost as many as 70,000 killed in action, with another 100,000 injured. While Russian casualties are higher still, the ratio nevertheless favours Moscow, as Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers in the face of a seemingly endless supply of conscripts.
Volunteers are no longer coming forward in numbers sufficient to keep the army at fighting strength: those most willing to fight signed up years ago. The latest recruitment slogan is “it’s OK to be afraid”, but there are still many attempting to dodge being drafted to fight on the front lines.
For all the difficulties the Kremlin has faced in its forced conscriptions, it still has hundreds of thousands of men to draw upon. This is a resource Ukraine simply cannot match, and one that the West cannot supply.
For Vladimir Putin, victory may at last be in sight as Western support begins to waver. If Kyiv cannot break through the Russian lines now, it may never be able to. If it runs out of willing men to recruit, the West cannot help.
Robert Clark is director of the Defence and Security Unit at Civitas
Source: The Telegraph
Kwa maoni ya wachambuzi wa kijeshi wa The Telegraph, haya mapigo ya droni yanayotangazwa na Ukraine hayawezi kabisa kubadili kushindwa kwa taifa hilo mbele ya Urusi.
Ukraine imetangaza kuteka kijiji cha Robotyne kuelekea bahari ya Azov, lakini muda hauko upande wao na hata kama watafika bahari hiyo, hawana nyenzo za kubaki kuligawa jeshi la Urusi baina ya Crimea na Urusi bara.
Jeshi la Urusi lilianza na askari milioni moja au chini yake kidogo, hata ikiwa wamepungua wengi kwa sababu yoyote ile, bado wamebakiwa na kundi kubwa la watu milioni 7 wanaoweza kuingizwa jeshini, wenye umri kati ya miaka 18 mpaka 26, juu ya kwamba umri wa kuingia jeshini umepandishwa mpaka miaka 31.
Kwa upande wa Ukraine, iliyokuwa na raia milioni 44, milioni 6 kati yao wamekimbia vita kwenda nje ya nchi. Jeshi lake lilikuwa na wapiganaji 200,000 tu na kundi lililokuwa na hamasa ya kupigana lote limeshafanya hivyo mwaka wa mwanzo wa vita. Wamebaki vijana 1.5 milioni tu ambao wamekuwa waoga sana kwenda vitani chini ya bango "it’s OK to be afraid". Hii ni baada ya askari 70,000 kufa au kuumia na kutoweza kupigana tena na ni jibu kwa raisi Zelensky mwenyewe ambaye hivi karibuni alipohudhuria mafunzo ya kijeshi kwa wanajeshi wapya vijana aliwaambia wasiwe na woga kupigana kuilinda nchi yao.
Hayo yakitokea kwa mujibu wa The Telegraph, hali ya hewa inayofuatia itaizuia Ukraine kusonga mbele, na wale waliosonga mbele wako hatarini kushambuliwa, huku nchi marafiki wa Ukraine wakiwa wazito kuendelea kuisaidia silaha, nchi hiyo mbali na ahadi za kila siku.
Wakati Marekani ikiahidi kutoa silaha, lakini katika nguvu kazi ya kupigana hawawezi kufanya hivyo.Wakati huo huo kampeni za uchaguzi mwakani zimeanza nchini humu huku waktitokea wagombea ambao wanapinga kuendelea kutoa misaada kwa Ukraine inayoelekea kushindwa wakitaja kuwa Marekani inahitaji kujilinda yenyewe kwanza dhidi ya kuvamiwa huko nyumbani na kwamba mali zinazopelekwa Ukraine zinahitajika sana kwa uchumi wa ndani,
=========
The war in Ukraine is now one of attrition, fought on terms that increasingly favour Moscow. Kyiv has dealt admirably with shortages of Western equipment so far, but a shortage of manpower – which it is already having to confront – may prove fatal.
Broadly speaking, Kyiv’s highly anticipated counter-offensive has gathered much-needed momentum in recent weeks, with hard-fought gains around the strategically important village of Robotyne. If this falls, the road to the Azov sea will be in sight. If Ukrainian forces can reach the coast, they will split the land-bridge connecting Russia with Crimea, potentially routing Moscow’s troops.
Ukraine’s forces, however, are not just fighting massed defences and artillery fire. They are also fighting against time. Having first penetrated the formidable Russian minefields four weeks ago, Kyiv is desperate to exploit its early successes before mounting casualties and autumn rains destroy its fighting capability.
The summer has been wet, and the autumn months traditionally bring heavy rains which turn the soft ground of eastern Europe into a thick mud as tanks, armour and artillery churn the battlefield. This can all but halt meaningful advances, locking armies into place and buying the Russians time to add to the deeply dug trench networks and multi-layered minefields that have made retaking lost territory such hard going.
Perhaps more important, however, is the heavy toll the fighting is taking on the people of Ukraine. The Russian armed forces began the war with an official strength of one million, and a true strength estimated by some analysts at between 700,000 and 800,000.
A further two million men – former conscripts and contract servicemen – were available in the reserves, and some seven million men of conscription age (18-26) left to draw on, even before the Kremlin raised the age limit to 31.
Ukraine, meanwhile, had a pre-war population of 44 million. By the end of the first year of the war, some six million had fled abroad. The armed forces number around 200,000 active personnel, roughly the same again in reserve, and can draw on another 1.5 million fighting-age males.
It’s a brutal but simple calculation: Kyiv is running out of men. US sources have calculated that its armed forces have lost as many as 70,000 killed in action, with another 100,000 injured. While Russian casualties are higher still, the ratio nevertheless favours Moscow, as Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers in the face of a seemingly endless supply of conscripts.
Volunteers are no longer coming forward in numbers sufficient to keep the army at fighting strength: those most willing to fight signed up years ago. The latest recruitment slogan is “it’s OK to be afraid”, but there are still many attempting to dodge being drafted to fight on the front lines.
For all the difficulties the Kremlin has faced in its forced conscriptions, it still has hundreds of thousands of men to draw upon. This is a resource Ukraine simply cannot match, and one that the West cannot supply.
For Vladimir Putin, victory may at last be in sight as Western support begins to waver. If Kyiv cannot break through the Russian lines now, it may never be able to. If it runs out of willing men to recruit, the West cannot help.
Robert Clark is director of the Defence and Security Unit at Civitas
Source: The Telegraph
