The 100Megawatt Syndrome

Tom said:

Unanikumbusha pale ambapo East China juzi tu wamejenga THREE GEORGES project wakidhani ndio mwisho wa mgao wa umeme lakini leo hii wanakosa umeme wakati West China wana umeme hawajui waufanyie nini. Mimi naona Projects za 100MW ni bei nafuu na zinatufaa, cha maana zinapojengwa basi zifanye kazi kweli. Jinsi uchumi utovyokua ni kweli vema project kubwa zaidi zikafikiriwa.

Ili tatizo la umeme liishe, TZ itahitaji vichwa safi na sio CHAMA CHA MAGAMBA - wanaojivua gamba kama si wao kila wapatapo msukosuko.

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Tom,

Kama hizi 100mw zingekuwa ni miradi ya Tanesco na kwa kumilikiwa na Tanesco, I will second your points kuwa tujenge 100mw station kila mkoa, lakini hizi 100mw ninazozungumzi ani hizi short term goals za kuwalipa wengine.

Ukiangalia what was the cost ya mitambo ya Richmond kuzalisha hizo 100mw, utatapika na utajiuliza kwa nini tulikimbilia ku-subcontract na si kununua hiyo mitambo sisi wenyewe iwe mali yetu?

Hivi, wakati Kikwete alipotoa stimulus package ya uchumi ya karibu Shilingi Trilioni moja, hizo fedha zilitoka wapi na zilitumika vipi? Kwa nini zisingewekewa kwenye umeme?

Mkuu umezungumzia umeme; lakini mie naona kuna matatizo katika kila nyanja na kwa kiasi kikubwa yanafanana. Watu waliopewa dhamana hawajui majibu ya kazi zao, na mara nyingi hukaa na kukurupuka pale mambo yanapo haribika.

This is only indicator of how we are nose diving to total failure! Na tatizo kubwa hapa ni uongozi, FULL STOP. Wengi wa viongozi katika taasisi za umma kama Tanesco, wanapewa majukumu si kwa uwezo, bali kama fadhila kwa utiifu wao kwa wanasiasa, na hii imetuingiza katika gharama ambazo vinginevyo tungeziepuka.

zomba said:

Mnaongelea ilani za chadema, cha kushangaza ni kuwa kwa nini chadema wasiwekeze kwenye umeme? wanangoja nini? nani aliyewazuia na wao ni chama chenye wafuasi wengi na bajeti nzuri tu wanayo? ya kupewa hapa na serikali na ya kuletewa na chama cha demokrasia cha kikristo cha ujerumani.

Haiingii akilini chama hakina kutekeleza japo kimoja ya wanayoyalalamikia siku zote. Mngeanza kuonesha japo kwenye majimbo yenu ya uchaguzi tu, mkawapa umeme usiokatika saa zote, maji safi kaya zote, shule zilizosheheni waalimu, madawati, vyoo vya kisasa, maabara, mngeweka hospitali za kisasa kwenye jimbo lenu hata moja tu.

Mnabaki kulalama, kususa, kuandamana. Tuonesheni vitu hai ili tujuwe kweli nyinyi ni zaidi ya serikali ya sasa ili tuwape kura zetu haraka haraka. Nani asiyetaka maendeleo? mnatuchosha na mulalama kwenu kusiko kwisha bila kuonesha mfano hata mdogo tu. Bora hata mrema alikwenda kuileta kuileta kampuni ya umeme poa, ingawa haijafanikisha lakini tuliona kawaleta, alionesha jitihada za vitendo na si kulalamika tu saa zote.

Kama uongozi rahisi si tungeona ile hospitali anaeongoza katibu mkuu wenu ikiwa kama mfano wa kuigwa? kiko wapi? ukienda pale ni foleni kuanzia asubuhi mpaka saa kumi jioni lakini ukitoa kitu kidogo unapelelkwa kumuona dokta mbio mbio, au hamlijui hilo? Na ndio katibu mkuu wenu kiongozi wa pale, au kaacha kwa kugombea urais alioukosa?

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Zomba ijapokuwa hii posti umeiweka kisiasa lakini mie naomba nikujibu kitaaluma zaidi.

Umesema watu wamebakia kulalama lakini hawatoi njia za kufanya kufikia malengo mie nakupa mfano mmoja wa solution ya hili tatizo nao ni ukata wa fedha.

Stiegler Gorge project yenye kuzalisha 2100 MW inakisiwa kugharimu si chini ya $2 Billion (Reuters, Dec 2010). Tunaambiwa Brazil watashiriki ujenz by 2015 tutaanza kuenjoy (statement iliyotolewa na Mh Bernard Membe na Somebody Aloyce Masanja (mwaka jana)).

Kabla serikali haijaenda kukopa huko inaweza kuzipata hizo $2 Billion kwa kubana matumizi yake ya uendeshaji wa serikali na bunge. Sehemu moja ni posho za wabunge na viti maalum.
Inakisiwa mbunge anapata 70,000 akiwa kwenye vikao vya bunge= Bunge la Budget hukaa vikao 73 na hivyo kila kikao Jumla ya gharama za Bunge na Serikali ni Tshs 1.788 Billion per year = 1.788 x 5 = 8.9425 billion / $1=Tshs 1608 = Final figure after 5 years assuming exchange rate is constant is $ 5.561 Million serikali will save.

Viti maalum kuna wabunge 102 ambao kila mbunge hulipwa stahiki ya Tshs 7.3 Million kila mwezi. Wakiamua kufuta viti hivi maalumu (jambo lililo ndani ya uwezo wao itakuwa kama ifuatavyo:-
102 x 7, 300,000 = 744,600,000 kila mwezi.

Mwaka = 8,935,200,000

Miaka 5 = 44,676,000,000

Sawa na USD =44,676,000,000/1,608 = $27,783,582 + $5, 561, 000 = $33, 344,582 mpaka hapa

Matumizi magari ya mawaziri pia yatasaidiwa kupunguza gharama za serikali . Landcruiser V8 linakisiwa kugharimu milioni 250. Kuna wizara zaidi ya 29 ambazo zina mawaziri , manaibu waziri wawili hadi watatu, na makatibu wakuu. Tuchukulie a standard ratio ya naibu waziri mmoja .

250,000,000 x 87 (29 x 3 (waziri, naibu na katibu wake))= 21,750,000,000 (mawaziri hawa wanaweza kukopeshwa hela wanunue magari yao binafsi au watumie usafiri wa jamii au madaladala au mabasi kama nchi za ulaya wanavyofanya) mfano Waziri wa biashara na viwanda Uingereza Vince Cable anaendesha baiskeli kwenda kazini)). Hivyo tunasave:-
21,750,000,000 /1608 = $13,526,119 =13, 526, 119 + $33,344, 582 =$46,870,701

Pia Ukimuisha na usimamizi mbovu wa matumizi ya serikali kwa mwaka unaokisiwa kufikia 2,415,670,026,437/ 1608 = $1.5 Billion

Total saving tunazipata ni $1.5 Billion + $0.046 = $1.55 Billion - $2 Billion (gharama za ujenzi) = tunabakia na $450,000,000 (kiasi kinachoweza kupatikana kwa kubana matumizi kwenye kila wizara na idara ya serikali.

Hivyo Zomba mradi huu tunaweza kuulipia wenyewe pasina msaada wa Brazil wala World Bank. Serikali inaendesha shughuli zake , kodi itakusanywa na pesa za kujenga Dam ya Rufiji zitapatikana kwenye kusimamia pesa za serikali na kubana matumizi. Labda nikuulize je serikali hii iko tayari kwa hilo. Tatizo la umeme linaweza kusababisha serikali hii ifilisike kama hawatakuwa waangalifu. Hatulalamiki ila tunajaribu kutahadharisha mwenye akili atatafakari asie nazo hatajali ila siku janga likifika tutakaoumia ni sote.

Mdondoaji, tell it my brother, thanks for ukokotoaji, you have just simplify my day on how to show Watanzania kuwa fedha tunazo!

Kuna mtu hapa ameleta alichosema Ngeleja, na kuwa ni mipango ambayo itakamilika in next 5-6 years, swali ni hili, kama hili la emergency linatushinda na tunadai hakuna fedha za kutosha, where in hell are we going to get money for all those other projects? Je kwa nini hakuna mbunge au media inayombana Ngeleja na grand project anazozitoa kwenye hotuba kwa kudai atoe pia gharama zake na wapi atapata fedha?

Hivi tuna watu bongolala namna hii? Tunakubali hotuba na majibu mepesimepesi yaliyojaa tarakimu uchwara?

Mdondoaji said:

Eng Nsiande,
Unataka kutuambia proposals ziko wizarani kujibiwa hazijibiwi? If yes then nafikiri akina Zitto watajua lakufanya kwasababu proposal za waziri Ngeleja to me does not make any sense at all!!!! Ngoja nikupe dondoo zake katika hotuba yake namnukuu:-
"
Alitaja miradi 16 akisema ni miongoni mwa ile itakayotekelezwa na Serikali ili kuongeza uzalishaji wa umeme, kupanua na kuboresha njia za umeme, kuendeleza na kupanua miundombinu ya gesi asilia.


Miongoni mwa miradi aliyoitaja Ngeleja ni ule wa mitambo ya kufua umeme ya megawati 100 jijini Dar es Salaam ambao alisema utakamilika Desemba mwaka huu na megawati 60 jijini Mwanza ambao utakamilika Juni mwakani.


Miradi mingine pamoja na muda wa kukamilika kwenye mabano ni Kinyerezi (Dar es Salaam) wa megawati 240 (2013/14), Mnazi Bay (Mtwara) wa megawati 300 (2013/14), Somanga Fungu (Kilwa), megawati 230 (2013/14)Ruhudji, megawati 358 (2015/16).


Mingine ni mgodi wa makaa ya mawe Kiwira (Mbeya) megawati 200 (2013/14), Ngaka wa megawati 400 (2014/15), Mchuchuma megawati 600 (2014/15), Murongo/Kikagati (Kagerea) wa megawati 16 ambao utategemea kukamilika kwa makubaliano kati ya Serikali ya Uganda na Tanzania.

Aliitaja miradi mingine kuwa ni Rusumo (Kagera) wa megawati 63 ambao upo kwenye taratibu za kutafutiwa fedha, Stiegler's Gorge (Pwani) wa megawati 2,100 na Mpanga wa megawati 165 (2015/16).


Pia, aliitaja mingine kuwa ni Rumakali wa megawati 222 (2018), Dar es Salaam-Tanga ambayo ni ya dharura ikijumuiasha Symbion (megawati 112.5), Aggreko (megawati 100), ununuzi wa mitambo itakayofungwa Majani Mapana, Tanga wa megawati 70 na ule wa gesi wa IPTL, Tegeta jijini Dar es Salaam."


Hebu nifafanulie waziri alikuwa anamaanisha kitu gani?

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Total power produced by 15 of these 16 projects is 3024 megawats, that is besides Steigler Gorge which is 2100 megawats alone for the total output of 5124 megawatts by 2016.

THe question is where is the money come from?

Can he list cost of each project and the current stage of the project?

Kwa maelezo yote haya siku tutakapo fikia kuwa na umeme wa megawatts 5,000 nchi nzima itakuwa imeuzwa kama Palestine!

Mdondoaji said:

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Matumizi magari ya mawaziri pia yatasaidiwa kupunguza gharama za serikali . Landcruiser V8 linakisiwa kugharimu milioni 250. Kuna wizara zaidi ya 29 ambazo zina mawaziri , manaibu waziri wawili hadi watatu, na makatibu wakuu. Tuchukulie a standard ratio ya naibu waziri mmoja .

250,000,000 x 87 (29 x 3 (waziri, naibu na katibu wake))= 21,750,000,000 (mawaziri hawa wanaweza kukopeshwa hela wanunue magari yao binafsi au watumie usafiri wa jamii au madaladala au mabasi kama nchi za ulaya wanavyofanya) mfano Waziri wa biashara na viwanda Uingereza Vince Cable anaendesha baiskeli kwenda kazini)). Hivyo tunasave:-
21,750,000,000 /1608 = $13,526,119 =13, 526, 119 + $33,344, 582 =$46,870,701 ...........................

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Mdondoaji nice analysis na sio hivyo tu

Japo Nilifeli hesabu hawa mawaziri na predesntial appoitnement hizo v8 zinahitaji lita karibu 200 kila wiki. Sasa sujui kwa kila V8 la waziri naibu waziri. Ma RC, DC wakurungezi wa idara.kwa wiki ni kiais gani kinatumika kwenye fuel.
Wakitumia hata vitara matumizi ya mafuta yanaweza kuwekewa kikomo cha lita 100 kwa wiki. Ni iasi gani kitaokoloewa . kwa hesbau rahisi fuel expenditure ya serikali inaweza kupungua kwa zaidi ya 40%.

Sijui kwa sasa matumizi ya fuel kwenye bajeti nzima ya serikali ni kiasi gani. Wachambuzi wa bajeti wanaojua kusoma vifungu vya matumizi watusadiie

So hata wakiendelea kutumia gari za serikali zenye kuonyesha wanajali matumizi basi ni pesa nyingi zitaokoloewa.

Mfano Nashangaaa mpaka sasa waziri anayehusika na mazingira hijaagiza japo gari moja la umeme kulitumia kwa ajili ya majirbio kuona litaokoa kisai gani cha matumizi na litasiaidaje kupunguza carbon emission . Je wizara ya mazingira inasimamia nini.? Nadhani viongozi wengi wadhani na wana hisia status na efficinecy ya uongozi wao inaendana na size au ukubwa wa gari?

Yaani ukiwaweka kwenye vitara au Mark II we should expext the Worse na tunachoona sasa. Teh teh teh

Yaani imekuwa kama standard sasa hata gavana wa BOT, wakurugenzi wa mashirika kama TRA, PPF NSSF ni kama wao kuwa na ma V8 ndio Icon ya cheo. wakati safari za mikoani wanapaaaa.

Wizara ya ujenzi na haina standards nyumba za watendaji wa serikali ziweje. matokeo yake nyingine ina vyumba kumi nyingine nane. Nyingine ina swimming pool nyingine haina. Kujenga nyumba ya DC inagharimu zaidi ya nyumba ya RC. Japo tuna serikali inaonenakana no one is in control

Hapa ndipo unapoata jibu ukiona hata Tanesco penyewe na wizara ya Nishati kuna standby genrator ujue hakuna nia ya dhati kutatua tatizo la umeme.

It is obvious we are all pissed off.
Pissed off at this situation we are in.
I am tired of kulalamika sababu hali inazidi kuwa mbaya by the day.
Je, what will be the best solution or best way forward out of this mess?
Does anyone know what is the govt short term and long term planning for umeme?
Knowing serikali yetu, wanafanyaga mambo kisirisiri na yakiibuka ndio utasikia mambo ya Richmond/Dowans handover crap.
I honestly feel hopeless and very angry right now for not knowing if things are going to change soon.
At this moment, I really don't want to hear anymore politician, sana sana wabunge, wakilalama kuhusu Ngeleja. I want to hear their solutions.
I want to hear the answers to the following:
1. Is it possible to get at least 300MW within a month?
2. What would be required to make it happen?
3. If the above is not possible how about tax exemptions on generators fuel for all major minings and big factories? (If this is to be allowed, itabidi kuhakikisha anyone who abuse the privilege is fined heavily (such as ananunua kama ya generator but anauza kwenye petro station) mafuta ya mgao yatumike kwa migao tu!

Mdondoaji thanks for good data. Inaudhi kuona jinsi wanasiasa wetu na priorities zao.
Kama kweli wanauchungu wa nchi na wamepata nafasi ili kututumikia sie, basi huu ni wakati wa wao kutuonyesha kwa matendo.
VXs na some posho go to be axed on this budget session!

Mkandara said:

Kwa maelezo yote haya siku tutakapo fikia kuwa na umeme wa megawatts 5,000 nchi nzima itakuwa imeuzwa kama Palestine!

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Mkandara kwa mwendo tunaokwned nao 5,000 sio kazi maana kwa style ya decentralisation ya 100 MGW au hata 50 MGW syndrome basi ni mikoa kumi ikiwa na hivi vimiradi vya umeme wa mafungu tutakuwa na 5,000. kazi itakuwa maintanace na operation cost.

Otheriwse uzuri wa hizi 50 MGW syndorome labda tatizo la ubungo halitasabbaisha mgao mwanza na shinyanga. the teh teh teh

The Mockingjay said:

It is obvious we are all pissed off.
Pissed off at this situation we are in.
I am tired of kulalamika sababu hali inazidi kuwa mbaya by the day.
Je, what will be the best solution or best way forward out of this mess?
Does anyone know what is the govt short term and long term planning for umeme?
Knowing serikali yetu, wanafanyaga mambo kisirisiri na yakiibuka ndio utasikia mambo ya Richmond/Dowans handover crap.
I honestly feel hopeless and very angry right now for not knowing if things are going to change soon.
At this moment, I really don't want to hear anymore politician, sana sana wabunge, wakilalama kuhusu Ngeleja. I want to hear their solutions.
I want to hear the answers to the following:
1. Is it possible to get at least 300MW within a month?
2. What would be required to make it happen?
3. If the above is not possible how about tax exemptions on generators fuel for all major minings and big factories? (If this is to be allowed, itabidi kuhakikisha anyone who abuse the privilege is fined heavily (such as ananunua kama ya generator but anauza kwenye petro station) mafuta ya mgao yatumike kwa migao tu!

Mdondoaji thanks for good data. Inaudhi kuona jinsi wanasiasa wetu na priorities zao.
Kama kweli wanauchungu wa nchi na wamepata nafasi ili kututumikia sie, basi huu ni wakati wa wao kutuonyesha kwa matendo.
VXs na some posho go to be axed on this budget session!

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The Mockingjay,

Most of us have already issued alternative and practical solutions which do not need tume, kamati or uratibu. It simply needs someone to listen, digest, and act to implement a thousand solutions being offered.

However, our government has created a clout of bureaucracy whereas they need time to sit on their asses to figure out what has been presented to them and create a team to examine a solution offered to see if it is a viable solution.

Steigler Gorge project started in 70's during Nyerere's time, it was shot down due to various reasons and we have undergone several planning and project to put it back in action since then.

THe Kikwete government, rather than pickingup what other feasibility studies were done on the SG project, they have decided that they are starting a new mchakato (mind you RUBADA and NDC have already completed their project and all they need is go ahead and funding) to see what we can to do realize the potential of Steigler Gorge as a solution to our electricity crisis!

Then as usual , Mchungaji would ask, what in the heck did Kikwete do in the 6 years as minister at Madini and Nishati? Wasn't he aware of this or put it in the sight of a great project to be executed? If one would ask me at this present day, the changes needed would be the budget and technological portion if there has been an advance methodology in running hydro power plant with the size of Rufiji.

But then if the water levels of Mtera and Kidatu, plus kudura za Mungu hakuna mvua are the case, why not invest to other alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, solid waste and even coal and gas?

How much time do we need for maamuzi magumu kufanyika?

The reluctancy of Kikwete and his administration to pull this one off, validates Lowassa argument that Serikali inaogopa kufanya maamuzi magumu.

Rev. Kishoka said:

Total power produced by 15 of these 16 projects is 3024 megawats, that is besides Steigler Gorge which is 2100 megawats alone for the total output of 5124 megawatts by 2016.

THe question is where is the money come from?

Can he list cost of each project and the current stage of the project?

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Rev Kishoka asante kwa kung'amua hilo ndio sababu nikamuuliza Eng Nsiande atueleze hizi project wizara wamepata wapi ujasiri wa kufanyia maamuzi lakini mradi wa Stiegler Gorge unapigwa danadana kila siku?

Vile vile umeulizwa swali zuri sana wamefikia stage gani kwani I feel that unaweza kukuta hizi ni project katika makaratasi. Ila swali la muhimu labda mkuu ni kuuliza project ya Stiegler Gorge kwanini inatupwa pembeni? Tanesco wanasema mahitaji ya nchi nzima ni 800 MW. Stiegler gorge itazalisha 2100 MW. In a common sense katika ya viproject vya 100MW na 2100 MW project gani inaweza kutatua shida yako ya umeme??? May be I donot understand nieleweshwe!

sblandes said:

Kujenga mitambo ya kufua umeme zaidi ya matumizi iendane na ukarabati wa miundo mbinu ya kusafirisha umeme,kwani kiasi kikubwa kinapotea njiani, kutokana na uchakavu wa miundo mbinu au ikiwezekana tuanze kujenga smart grid.
Gasi nayozalishwa kwa sasa ni ndogo kutoka kwenye gas processing plant,haitoshi kukidhi mahitaji ya mitambo itayoongezwa na matumizi ya viwanda,hivyo basi inatakiwa kujenga gas processing plant kubwa ili tuweze kufunga mabomba makubwa ya kusafirisha gesi hadi kwenye vinu vya kufua gesi
Geothermal energy is abundant katika Bonde la ufa .Kenya wanatumia nishati hiyo haichafui mazingira na ipo ya kutosha,tulivalie miwani.

Incourage small power generation kwenye sehemu kama vijiji,ili wananchi watokane na hadha ya kukosa umeme.
Power generation kutoka nuklia haitajiki kwa sasa kwanza matumizi yetu hayajafika hata 5000MW,pili safety standard ziko juu sana,kwa nchi yetu ambayo hata kuhifadhi mabomu kwenye ghala ni big issue tuachane nayo.

Mwenyezi Mungu katupa jua linawaka masaa 12 kila siku,mpango makusudi wa kuwezesha kuwavutia wekezaji wa solar power iimarishwe

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Twende nuclear, acha woga, so far life expectancy tz ni 47. Wapeni warusi au wamarekani wamanage hizo plants kwa standard unazosema kwani nakubaliana nawe tanesco hawawezi, watakaomanage plant tuwalipe kwa umeme wanautupa, ili kwa makubaliane yanayoeleweka, siyo kama haya ya IPTL (WIZI MTUPU). Nuclear plant moja tu inapower Tanzania nzima, na productivity viwandani ndo usiseme.

Rev Kishoka,

I hear you out mkuu.

What I know about this government is that majority of the folks there are vilaza and not qualified to make some decisions. Especially technical/economical decisions like Steigler Gorge. Kwanza wengi hawana technical background to read and understandd the studies. Wao wanaangalia numbers. Number zinazovutia ni zile wanazoweza pata wao. Also, it is too of a long term and hakuna mlo sababu by the time the project is completed, they will not be in the position kuchuna vyao Kama IPTL, etc.
But maajabu ni kwamba JK was the minister of the very same ministry for 6 whole years. Sure he should know a thing or two to make maamuzi sahihi, but he is not.
I am not sure if the guy is not smart or simply anaangalia maslahi. It has to be one or the other and neither is good.

Back to the 3 questions above. Maji ndio yameshamwagika and we don't have much choice kama ni kweli Mtera and Kidatu will shut down after 60 days as per the Guardian...

1. Can we get at least 300MW substitute in time?
2. What would be required to make it happen?
3. If the above are not possible, can the govt consider tax exemptions on generator fuels for the big mines and factories?

Rev. Kishoka said:

The Mockingjay,

Most of us have already issued alternative and practical solutions which do not need tume, kamati or uratibu. It simply needs someone to listen, digest, and act to implement a thousand solutions being offered.

However, our government has created a clout of bureaucracy whereas they need time to sit on their asses to figure out what has been presented to them and create a team to examine a solution offered to see if it is a viable solution.

Steigler Gorge project started in 70's during Nyerere's time, it was shot down due to various reasons and we have undergone several planning and project to put it back in action since then.

THe Kikwete government, rather than pickingup what other feasibility studies were done on the SG project, they have decided that they are starting a new mchakato (mind you RUBADA and NDC have already completed their project and all they need is go ahead and funding) to see what we can to do realize the potential of Steigler Gorge as a solution to our electricity crisis!

Then as usual , Mchungaji would ask, what in the heck did Kikwete do in the 6 years as minister at Madini and Nishati? Wasn't he aware of this or put it in the sight of a great project to be executed? If one would ask me at this present day, the changes needed would be the budget and technological portion if there has been an advance methodology in running hydro power plant with the size of Rufiji.

But then if the water levels of Mtera and Kidatu, plus kudura za Mungu hakuna mvua are the case, why not invest to other alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, solid waste and even coal and gas?

How much time do we need for maamuzi magumu kufanyika?

The reluctancy of Kikwete and his administration to pull this one off, validates Lowassa argument that Serikali inaogopa kufanya maamuzi magumu.

Click to expand...

Mkuu,

Kwa nukuu za kitaalamu umeme wa Upepo (windfarm), Solar , Nuclear , renewable na Nishati ya Bahari are extremely expensive kwa nchi yetu ya Tanzania hatuna pesa za kuwekeza huko kama tunataka kupanuka kiuchumi (zaidi gharama za matunzo ndio zinaweza kutumaliza). Umeme wa bei rahisi kwetu ni maji (Hydro), Coal ambao tunaweza kufaidika nao.

Kwasababu gani nasema Hydro na Coal ni bei rahisi zaidi kutokana na uzalishaji wa nishati husika na gharama za uzalishaji ziko chini ikiwa gharama ziko chini basi na gharama ya umeme inapungua. Ikipungua gharama ya umeme gharama za maisha Tanzania zitashuka, uzalishaji kuongezeka na mfumuko wa bei nchini utapungua (inflation). Tuna mito isiyotegemea mvua ni Mto Ruvuma, Rufiji na Mto Malagarasi pamoja na River Nile Kaskazini ya Ziwa Victoria. Mito niliyoitaja vina vyake ni chemchem na haviitaji kudura ya mmungu mvua inyeshe.

Mto Ruvuma ni mto tambarare (sio haufai kujenga River Dam, kwani USA wametengeneza Hydro Electric Dam from plain river). Mto Rufiji ndio Stiegler gorge study imefanyika. Mto mwengine unaofaa ni mto Malagarasi. Tukiweza kujenga Hydro Electric Dam Mto Rufiji (Stiegler Gorge), River Malagarasi na Hydro Dam zilizopo tunaweza kuzalisha umeme wa zaidi ya 5,000 MW. Tukiongeza na umeme wa makaa ya mawe coal tatizo la umeme nchini linasahaulika. Umeme ukiwa mwingi nchini bei ya umeme itapungua na gharama za maisha zitapungua.

Kudai twende Solar panels au Wind farm au Nuclear wakati tuna vyanzo vya umeme wa bei rahisi wa makaa ya mawe na maji tutajutia uamuzi huo.

The Mockingjay said:

Rev Kishoka,

I hear you out mkuu.

What I know about this government is that majority of the folks there are vilaza and not qualified to make some decisions. Especially technical/economical decisions like Steigler Gorge. Kwanza wengi hawana technical background to read and understandd the studies. Wao wanaangalia numbers. Number zinazovutia ni zile wanazoweza pata wao. Also, it is too of a long term and hakuna mlo sababu by the time the project is completed, they will not be in the position kuchuna vyao Kama IPTL, etc.
But maajabu ni kwamba JK was the minister of the very same ministry for 6 whole years. Sure he should know a thing or two to make maamuzi sahihi, but he is not.
I am not sure if the guy is not smart or simply anaangalia maslahi. It has to be one or the other and neither is good.

Back to the 3 questions above. Maji ndio yameshamwagika and we don't have much choice kama ni kweli Mtera and Kidatu will shut down after 60 days as per the Guardian...

1. Can we get at least 300MW substitute in time?
2. What would be required to make it happen?
3. If the above are not possible, can the govt consider tax exemptions on generator fuels for the big mines and factories?

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Mie naomba nafasi nijibu haya maswali:-
a. Short term solutions (Umeme wa magenereta (IPTL, Symbion na wengineo), Umeme wa songosongo na pia tunaweza kununua umeme kutoka Zambia na Uganda for 5 years).
b. Long term solutions (Tujenge Stiegler gorge, Two more hydro dams na vinu vya umeme wa kutumia makaa ya mawe).

Tax exemptions wakati huu wa hali mbaya ya uchumi wa kidunia itakosesha serikali mapato na kuongeza ugumu wa maisha ya mtanzania.

Mdondoaji said:

Mkuu,

Kwa nukuu za kitaalamu umeme wa Upepo (windfarm), Solar , Nuclear , renewable na Nishati ya Bahari are extremely expensive kwa nchi yetu ya Tanzania hatuna pesa za kuwekeza huko kama tunataka kupanuka kiuchumi (zaidi gharama za matunzo ndio zinaweza kutumaliza). Umeme wa bei rahisi kwetu ni maji (Hydro), Coal ambao tunaweza kufaidika nao.
.

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Mdondoaji,

Suala ni expensiveness of a project and cost or uzembe wetu kufany awhat is necessary to get stuff done?

Mbona Mtera na Kidatu ambazo ni least expensive zinatutoa kamasi kila mwaka? Do we even have a cuture of taking care of what we have like scheduled maintenance without opting to buy a new replacement unit?

Angalia magari ya Wabunge na Serikali, nobody really takes care yakapate full maximum utilization, kila 5 years tunadai gari limechoka tunataka jipya, where in the regulations of public goods we are accepting tear and wear and write off something in less than 5 years?

That is another problem, we buy and build stuff but we do are not taking care of them after the grand opening and wazee wa mikasi kukata tepe!

If my memory recollects well, it was somewhere between 1086-1989, when Tanesco communicated to Serikali an need to undertake a scheduled maintenance of Mtera and Kidatu and Serikali said NO, keep pumping the turbines...next thing I recall is massive importation of generators like swarm of Nzige and Unspecified Power Interruptions since then...25 years later we are yet to find a solution rather we are compounding problem after problem and short term after another and as always, we find these short term solutions are flawed and filled with corruption in addition to ridiculous pricetags!

Mdondoaji,

You have offered one critical solution, buy the damn elctricity from Kenya, Uganda, Congo and Mozambique, it is ready made we will simply be paying a unit consumed cost and not the crappy capacity charges or whatsoever!

Shida yetu tunaogopa kuwatajirisha Kenyasco, Ugandasco, Msumbijisco and other but at the same time, we are not making any progress kwa kuwa giza ni tororo na mshumaa na vibatari haviwezi zalisha hata wati moja ya kuchemsha maji kwa dakika moja!

Mdondoaji said:

Mie naomba nafasi nijibu haya maswali:-a. Short term solutions (Umeme wa magenereta (IPTL, Symbion na wengineo), Umeme wa songosongo na pia tunaweza kununua umeme kutoka Zambia na Uganda for 5 years).b. Long term solutions (Tujenge Stiegler gorge, Two more hydro dams na vinu vya umeme wa kutumia makaa ya mawe).Tax exemptions wakati huu wa hali mbaya ya uchumi wa kidunia itakosesha serikali mapato na kuongeza ugumu wa maisha ya mtanzania.

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Mdondoaji,Asante sana kwa majibu yako. Sasa, kwa nini tunateseka bure wakati tunaweza nunua umeme Zambia or Uganda? Je, Zambia na Uganda wana surplus ya umeme? Je, kununua umeme Zambia au Uganda ni bei ya juu zaidi ya kina Aggreko na Jacobsen? Au tatizo hapa na ego za viongozi wetu kuomba kununua umeme kwa jirani?If I was JK, I would examine these options and make a call. We can just buy the damn umeme kwa jirani if it is cheaper then work on implementing Steigler Gorge project once and for all.