Review: Demographics, Population and Youth Leadership


Roulette

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I here attach the presentation done by Ndugu January Makamba at the National CCM Youth Leadership Council. I would want us to review it kidogo.

I like the presentation because it has data that can be traced and quoted by others, but also because it raises crucial questions on the demographics of Tanzania, and the dangers ahead if we don't do anything now.
Some DYK:
  • Did You Know the number of young people today is more than the entire population of Tanzania in 2003
    36.3m (Total Population in 2003 37.9m and Number of people under the age of 35 in 2013)
  • Tanzania population is doubling in size every 25 years (1980: 19M, 2005: 38M, projection 2030: 76M)
  • Between 2013 and 2020, over one million Tanzanians, mostly young people, will move into cities each year putting pressure on services and ressources (Transport, water, housing, energy etc)
  • only 11,593,078 of youth were in school in 2012 (by school he means from pre-primary to higher education)That is 25 percent of the population
  • with 25,827,518 mobile phone suscribers, Tanzania has 5,311,218 ( EMT, this made me think of you)

Namaliza kwa kuweka last slide content:
Way Forward: Reaping the Demographic Dividend
1. Transform Education System
• Skills-based primary education/age?
• Teach for the economy and society not just jobs – Entrepreneurship. (Values? /Ethics?/Patriotism?)
• Financing education – "free education?", student loans structure
• Technical education

2. Transform Economic System
• Inclusive growth, shared benefits
• Start-up culture, venture capitalism, access to finance 3. Transform Political System
• The youth and the "national project"
• Cost of entering and staying in politics
• Let young people create the future they desire

Na hizi picha ambazo kwa kweli ZINATISHA. Duniani kote politicians can't compete with shining musicians but this should be a call...


What I did not like about the presentation: anae ipata online kama mimi hapati yale maelezo yaliyo sindikiza the actual presentation. Maybe it's worth having a text (but the graphics speak loudly I guess).
 

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gfsonwin

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now i got the concept,
Kimsingi shule za kata zililetwa ili ziweze kucounteract hii effect ya massive popn growth. manake 4 yr delay ya girl kutojiingiza kwenye mambo ya uzazi inamsaidia kwamba aje kuzaa akiwa na utimamu wa mwili zaid na pia inapunguza popn.

lkn sasa ieleweke kwamba pia swala la family planning liko restricted kwa females but kwa male haliko hivyo perhaps that is the reason ya kuwa na growth ya namna hii.

to me with such kind of popn growth then socio economic paramiters zingetakiwa zikue 3 times popn yenyewe ili atleast kupunguza pressure.

halafu kuna jambo nilisahau kusema ni kwamba watu siku zote hupenda zile habari ambazo zimekaa kiumbea umbea ama zinazoleta vicheko maskioni mwao.

yale mambo ambayo humfanya mtu atumie ubongo wake ipasavyo huwa hayapendwi as yanakatisha tamaa na huleta uchungu. sasa basi sishangai hata kidogo kuona gazeti la udaku linauzika zaid kuliko la habari za siasa ama uchumi. wala sishanai kwenye mikutano ya kijiji washiriki kuwa wachache lkn kwenye onyesho la mziki ukumbi ukajaa.

hii ipo hata tu mashulen some few students will opt for the so called difficult courses the rest will opt for the easy one and which have good returns.
 
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halafu kuna jambo nilisahau kusema ni kwamba watu siku zote hupenda zile habari ambazo zimekaa kiumbea umbea ama zinazoleta vicheko maskioni mwao.

yale mambo ambayo humfanya mtu atumie ubongo wake ipasavyo huwa hayapendwi as yanakatisha tamaa na huleta uchungu. sasa basi sishangai hata kidogo kuona gazeti la udaku linauzika zaid kuliko la habari za siasa ama uchumi. wala sishanai kwenye mikutano ya kijiji washiriki kuwa wachache lkn kwenye onyesho la mziki ukumbi ukajaa.

hii ipo hata tu mashulen some few students will opt for the so called difficult courses the rest will opt for the easy one and which have good returns.
Reading this presentation, I think of the time bomb that a ressource-rich country like Tanzania is facing. According to the young bulge theory "A large proportion of young adults and rapid rate of growth in the working-age population tends to exacerbate unemployment, prolong dependency on parents and disminish self-esteem and fuel frustration" ~ Gunar Heinsohn
Now read this:

[FONT=&amp]"A new study by Population Action International (PAI), a Washington-based private advocacy group, suggests a strong correlation between countries prone to civil conflicts and those with burgeoning youth populations. Social scientists label this demographic profile "youth bulge," and its potential to destabilize countries in the developing world is gaining wider acceptance among the American foreign policy community. The theory contends that societies with rapidly growing young populations often end up with rampant unemployment and large pools of disaffected youths who are more susceptible to recruitment into rebel or terrorist groups. Countries with weak political institutions are most vulnerable to youth-bulge-related violence and social unrest."

Nikiona haya naaza kufikiria ya Mtwara, ya Arusha na I have this painful feeling that it is just the biggining of a series, that cannot be stopped easily.[/FONT]



 
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now i got the concept,
Kimsingi shule za kata zililetwa ili ziweze kucounteract hii effect ya massive popn growth. manake 4 yr delay ya girl kutojiingiza kwenye mambo ya uzazi inamsaidia kwamba aje kuzaa akiwa na utimamu wa mwili zaid na pia inapunguza popn.

lkn sasa ieleweke kwamba pia swala la family planning liko restricted kwa females but kwa male haliko hivyo perhaps that is the reason ya kuwa na growth ya namna hii.

to me with such kind of popn growth then socio economic paramiters zingetakiwa zikue 3 times popn yenyewe ili atleast kupunguza pressure.
Sio wa mwili tu. Educated women tend to have fewer children (source) , and are more active actors in the economy of a country as even when they don't produce, they at least save (sina source hapa karibu, I save this space as I go in my archives).
 
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Reading this presentation, I think of the time bomb that a ressource-rich country like Tanzania is facing. According to the young bulge theory "A large proportion of young adults and rapid rate of growth in the working-age population tends to exacerbate unemployment, prolong dependency on parents and disminish self-esteem and fuel frustration" ~ Gunar Heinsohn
Now read this:

"A new study by Population Action International (PAI), a Washington-based private advocacy group, suggests a strong correlation between countries prone to civil conflicts and those with burgeoning youth populations. Social scientists label this demographic profile "youth bulge," and its potential to destabilize countries in the developing world is gaining wider acceptance among the American foreign policy community. The theory contends that societies with rapidly growing young populations often end up with rampant unemployment and large pools of disaffected youths who are more susceptible to recruitment into rebel or terrorist groups. Countries with weak political institutions are most vulnerable to youth-bulge-related violence and social unrest."

Nikiona haya naaza kufikiria ya Mtwara, ya Arusha na I have this painful feeling that it is just the biggining of a series, that cannot be stopped easily.



ni ukweli usiopingika kwamba ugumu wa maisha, elimu, et al husababaisha watu kuwa frustrated na mwishowe to get into violence and other behaviours ambazo ni mbaya kwenye jamii. njia mojawapo ya kupunguza haya ni pamoja na watu kusoma udaku, kushiriki kwenye mabonanza na shoo za miziki and the like. hii hupoteza muda ambao wangekaa vijiwen na kuwaza kufanya uovu.

ngoja nikwambie kitu, umeshawah kufanya survey kwenye househol mida ya mchana ambapo wadada wa kazi za ndani, house wives na hata jobless people wanachokua wanakifanya?? basi wengi siku hizi utawakuta waangalia filam za kibongo, na kusoma magazeti ya udaku kutwa nzima. sasa who is paying for their bills i.e umeme na maji?? and where do they get money?? ndipo utata unapokuja.

kwa binti wa kazi utasema ana salary, kwa mama wa nyumban utasema kapata hela ya kununua baada ya kubana bajeti je wale ambao ni jobless je wamepata wapi??

kwa upande mmoja hivi vitu viepunguza impact kwenye uovu, ama niseme vimesuppliment muda wa mtu kuwa mwovu kwa namna fulan lkn kwa upande mwingine vimefungua milango haram ya kutafutia pesa.

haya sina source yake ni from my anecdote tu so isonekane kwamba nimereference mahali.
 
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Wengi wameongelea sana elimu na ajira kama mahitaji muhimu sana kwa watoto na vijana. But their right to participate in decision-making is either undervalued or they are not empowered to participate in decision-making at all. Tunapoongelea "participation in decision-making" aka the voice of children and young people in decision-making, tuna maana gani hasa?

Participation is a broad process covering many things. Kwa mfano, tunawahusisha watoto na vijana katika maamuzi ya ngazi ipi? Focus na nature ya participation ikoje? Ni shughuli zipi na mara ngapi huwa tunawahusisha watoto na vijana katika maamuzi?

Nimejikita zaidi kwa watoto maana watu wengi na hasa wazazi hawawahusishi watoto wao katika maamuzi hata yale ya familia. Nakumbuka nilishabishana na member mmoja hapa aliyekuwa kama anadai kuwa huwezi kumhusisha mtoto kwenye maamuzi. Ilikuwa ni kuhusu mchakato wa katiba mpya ambapo Bocho alihoji:

Hivi kweli CHADEMA walikuwa wanatarajia watoto nao washirikishwe kwenye mchakato wa katiba?
Kwa kejeli akasema kuwa:

Mwanangu wa miezi sita alikwenda kutoa maoni mazuri sana kwenye tume ya katiba mpya.
So, you can see when it comes to crucial decision-makings watoto hawafikiriwi na baadhi yetu. Hawa watoto wanapokua na kuwa vijana, hawajui how to participate in decision-making maana hawajawahi kuhusishwa huko nyumba. They will keep thinking they are people out there who will make decisions for them. They don't need to worry.

And probably wakipita ujana wao, they will not involve children or other people in decision-making kwa sababu wenyewe hawajawahi kushirikishwa.

Wengine wakiwa wakubwa wanaweza kuwa na hata woga wa kufanya maamuzi magumu, because they don't know how to go about making them. Wakati mwingine huwa tunatengeneza madikteta bila hata kujua. Tunakuza watoto ambao they won't listen to anyone watakapokuwa wakubwa.

But children and young people have a right to participate in decision-making as individuals as well as a group. Mtoto yoyote regardless ya umri wake anayo haki ya kushirikishwa kwenye maamuzi yoyote yanayo-affect maisha yake.

Ziko taratibu mahususi za kuwashikirisha watoto hata wale wadogo kwenye kwenye maamuzi. Lakini sidhani kama wazazi au hata watawala wanazijua au kama wanazijua whether wanazitumia ipasavyo kuwashirikisha watoto katika maamuzi.

Tuanzie mwanzo kabisa kwenye the first institution of the society, which is the family. When was the last time you involved a child in a family decision or even in decision which affect the child directly? Then, kuanzia hapo tupande juu mpaka kwenye ngazi ya taifa.
 
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Sio wa mwili tu. Educated women tend to have fewer children (source) , and are more active actors in the economy of a country as even when they don't produce, they at least save (sina source hapa karibu, I save this space as I go in my archives).
you are very right Roulette, but ngoja nikuulize swali why that the situation is not the same kwa wanaume?? why wanaume hata wawe wamesoma huwa wanatend kuzaa watoto wengi?? na pia wanawake wasomi huoni kwamba kwa kuzaa watoto wachache wanakuwa kama vile wanawalazimisha waume zao and that brings conflict to the family??
 
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ni ukweli usiopingika kwamba ugumu wa maisha, elimu, et al husababaisha watu kuwa frustrated na mwishowe to get into violence and other behaviours ambazo ni mbaya kwenye jamii. njia mojawapo ya kupunguza haya ni pamoja na watu kusoma udaku, kushiriki kwenye mabonanza na shoo za miziki and the like. hii hupoteza muda ambao wangekaa vijiwen na kuwaza kufanya uovu.

ngoja nikwambie kitu, umeshawah kufanya survey kwenye househol mida ya mchana ambapo wadada wa kazi za ndani, house wives na hata jobless people wanachokua wanakifanya?? basi wengi siku hizi utawakuta waangalia filam za kibongo, na kusoma magazeti ya udaku kutwa nzima. sasa who is paying for their bills i.e umeme na maji?? and where do they get money?? ndipo utata unapokuja.

kwa binti wa kazi utasema ana salary, kwa mama wa nyumban utasema kapata hela ya kununua baada ya kubana bajeti je wale ambao ni jobless je wamepata wapi??

kwa upande mmoja hivi vitu viepunguza impact kwenye uovu, ama niseme vimesuppliment muda wa mtu kuwa mwovu kwa namna fulan lkn kwa upande mwingine vimefungua milango haram ya kutafutia pesa.

haya sina source yake ni from my anecdote tu so isonekane kwamba nimereference mahali.
Kuna PhD fulani anaitwa Dr. Eli Twineyo Kamugisha, anapendekeza financial awareness iwe ni focus maalum ya nchi zote, watu wawe trained kama kwa HIV/AIDS awareness ambapo kuna Teachers of Trainers kila wilaya, then a trainer kila kata, na huyo trainer ana train pair educators kwa kila offisi, kila shule, kila kikundi etc.

Just like for HIV, mtu huyo atakua na kazi ya kuwaeleza vijana (na wazee) kwanini watu wanatakiwa kusave, how to save, what to save, how to invest, the impact of saving at micro and micro economic level, relevance of taxation, financial accountability nk.

A population that would be THIS aware will necessarilly participate in the economic development of their countries. sasa na mimi naongeza kua a population that would be this aware might not drop out of school easily, they might hold the government more accountable, they might actually read more of Mwalimu's writting than diamon's fan page etc. watu hawajui kwanini wasome the citizen and not gazeti la sani, sababu wanashindwa ku-link yaliomo na maisha yao ya kawaida.
 
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you are very right Roulette, but ngoja nikuulize swali why that the situation is not the same kwa wanaume?? why wanaume hata wawe wamesoma huwa wanatend kuzaa watoto wengi?? na pia wanawake wasomi huoni kwamba kwa kuzaa watoto wachache wanakuwa kama vile wanawalazimisha waume zao and that brings conflict to the family??
hapo labda tuanze kwa kujibu KWANINI wanawake wanao soma sana hawazai sana? jibu ni kwamba muda wa masomo unakua umesha kula most of her "fertility" period. Pia ni kwamba mwanamke akianza kuzaa anataka "afatishe" kwa muda, so alie anza at 20, it is rare afunge at 30. atafunga tu around 40 or even 45 kama mwenzie alie anza at 30.
Zaidi ya hapo kuna suala nzima la kuelewa madhara ya kuzaa sana. mwenye elim yake yupo more likely to be exposed to this truth and understand it, than yule ambae hajasoma who is under family pressure, au anadhani mwenye kumpa hii habari anataka kumuiba mume wake sijui.
Wanaume hawapunguzi kuzaa probably because wanaume HAWAZAI. wanaume wana-participate to the conception, but hawazai wenyewe, so madhara mengi hawayapati. it won"t damage their health or disrupt their career. ila kuna wanaume wanaelewa it will be financially and emotionaly costly, and I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are educated (source: mimi mwenyewe, lol)
 
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Reading this presentation, I think of the time bomb that a ressource-rich country like Tanzania is facing. According to the young bulge theory "A large proportion of young adults and rapid rate of growth in the working-age population tends to exacerbate unemployment, prolong dependency on parents and disminish self-esteem and fuel frustration" ~ Gunar Heinsohn
Taking this a bit further, at the moment we think of the needs of children and young people.

We're not yet thinking of how we will feed them when they become pensioners.

Angalia jinsi nchi za Ulaya zinavyopaniki kwa kuzidi kuongezeka kwa idadi ya wazee.

We have to prepare now maana hawa watoto na vijana wakifikia umri ya kustaafu (kama wapo wataokuwa na kazi) kuna uwezekano wakawa ni burden kubwa sana kwa taifa.
 
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Taking this a bit further, at the moment we think of the needs of children and young people.

We're not yet thinking of how we will feed them when they become pensioners.

Angalia jinsi nchi za Ulaya zinavyopaniki kwa kuzidi kuongezeka kwa idadi ya wazee.

We have to prepare now maana hawa watoto na vijana wakifikia umri ya kustaafu (kama wapo wataokuwa na kazi) kuna uwezekano wakawa ni burden kubwa sana kwa taifa.
Our life expectancy is such as tunakufa kabla hatujawa mzigo kwa taifa. How many of us will live to receive more than we contributed for our pensions? kweli wengi don't even contribute, but vile vile they don't claim it...
 
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Kuna PhD fulani anaitwa Dr. Eli Twineyo Kamugisha, anapendekeza financial awareness iwe ni focus maalum ya nchi zote, watu wawe trained kama kwa HIV/AIDS awareness ambapo kuna Teachers of Trainers kila wilaya, then a trainer kila kata, na huyo trainer ana train pair educators kwa kila offisi, kila shule, kila kikundi etc.

Just like for HIV, mtu huyo atakua na kazi ya kuwaeleza vijana (na wazee) kwanini watu wanatakiwa kusave, how to save, what to save, how to invest, the impact of saving at micro and micro economic level, relevance of taxation, financial accountability nk.

A population that would be THIS aware will necessarilly participate in the economic development of their countries. sasa na mimi naongeza kua a population that would be this aware might not drop out of school easily, they might hold the government more accountable, they might actually read more of Mwalimu's writting than diamon's fan page etc. watu hawajui kwanini wasome the citizen and not gazeti la sani, sababu wanashindwa ku-link yaliomo na maisha yao ya kawaida.
yap i do agree with Dr.Kamugisha ila i take it as one solution, others be people should have intrinsic motivation, yaani apart from being tought how to serve and the like but awe na nia ya dhat kabisa kwamba anataka maisha yabadilike.

kama anaona kwamba kumsoma Diamond na hadithi zake, hakumsaidii chochote ni wazi kwamba atatafuta kitu mbadala cha kufanya na hii si lazima mtu akufundishe bali lapaswa kuanza moyoni mwako. mfano leo hii kuna baadhi ya familia nyingi tu baba/mama anarudi jioni na gazeti la udaku, ambalo huuzwa 500 why not kununua mwananchi ama nipashe ambayo huuzwa 800?? je wafikiri ni kwasababu hana mia 3 ya kuongezea?

mimi nafikiri ni kwasabbu hawako intrisically motivated tu, na pia haoni umuhimu na sidhani kama kuna mtu anatakiwa awape motisha?? je wafikiri hata wakipewa hiyo elimu pasi utayari itasaidia??

kuna theory moja ya kwenye elimu husema hivi ''readness fosters learning'' so kama mtu hayuko tayari na prepared hawez akapata elimu kusudiwa.

however ni good start kwa huu ushauri wa Dr Kamugisha and i think ufike wakati sasa watunga sera watumie mishango ya watafiti wetu ili kuboresha maisha
 
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hapo labda tuanze kwa kujibu KWANINI wanawake wanao soma sana hawazai sana? jibu ni kwamba muda wa masomo unakua umesha kula most of her "fertility" period. Pia ni kwamba mwanamke akianza kuzaa anataka "afatishe" kwa muda, so alie anza at 20, it is rare afunge at 30. atafunga tu around 40 or even 45 kama mwenzie alie anza at 30.
Zaidi ya hapo kuna suala nzima la kuelewa madhara ya kuzaa sana. mwenye elim yake yupo more likely to be exposed to this truth and understand it, than yule ambae hajasoma who is under family pressure, au anadhani mwenye kumpa hii habari anataka kumuiba mume wake sijui.
Wanaume hawapunguzi kuzaa probably because wanaume HAWAZAI. wanaume wana-participate to the conception, but hawazai wenyewe, so madhara mengi hawayapati. it won"t damage their health or disrupt their career. ila kuna wanaume wanaelewa it will be financially and emotionaly costly, and I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are educated (source: mimi mwenyewe, lol)
nazipenda urgument zako manake zinanifungua akili upande mwingine stay blessed !!

haya ukweli ni kwamba education process huwa ni delay ya kuzaa hasa kwa wanawake, na hili hupelekea kuwa na limitation kwenye uzazi wao.

as fofr me upande wa wanaume sidhan kama sabbau ni kutokuzaa la hasha ila nadhani sabbu kubwa kwao ni kule kutojali matokeo ya kile wanachokifanya ama la ni ile tamaa ambayo wanayo kwamba they need many kids. istoshe hata family planning haiku focus kwenye kuwasaidia wanaume wapunguze kuzaa bali kwa wanawake ambao hata kama hajasoma akizaa sana atazaa watoto 4 kwa maisha ya kileo.

lakin nafikiri kwamba ifike mahali iwe deduced kwamba wanaume ni chanzo cha popn growth na Roulette imagine watoto wengi huesabiwa kwa nani?? ni wazi kwamba ni kwa mama na hata kwenye kaaadi imeandikwa kwamba mimba ya 5 kuendelea ni kidokezo cha hatari so hili humfanya mwanamke ahesabiwe idadi ya watoto anaozaa.

sasa on the other side kuna mwanaume ambaye hakuna anaye muhesabia na huyu ndio mbaya zaid. pata picha mtu ana wake 3 anazalisha kila mke watoto 2 hawa kwa mwanamke wataonekana wako ndani ya range na tutampongeza kumbe mumewe anao wanne zaid, na kwakua haonekani klinic basi hakuna anayeona impact yake kwenye popn growth.

to me kuna ulazima wa kuanzisha sera ya idadi ya watoto wanaozaliwa kwa baba na mtu akaizidisha hapo basi apigwe faini ya kuongezewa muda wa kazi ili kufidia iyo burden.
 
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Wengi wameongelea sana elimu na ajira kama mahitaji muhimu sana kwa watoto na vijana. But their right to participate in decision-making is either undervalued or they are not empowered to participate in decision-making at all. Tunapoongelea "participation in decision-making" aka the voice of children and young people in decision-making, tuna maana gani hasa?

Participation is a broad process covering many things. Kwa mfano, tunawahusisha watoto na vijana katika maamuzi ya ngazi ipi? Focus na nature ya participation ikoje? Ni shughuli zipi na mara ngapi huwa tunawahusisha watoto na vijana katika maamuzi?

Nimejikita zaidi kwa watoto maana watu wengi na hasa wazazi hawawahusishi watoto wao katika maamuzi hata yale ya familia. Nakumbuka nilishabishana na member mmoja hapa aliyekuwa kama anadai kuwa huwezi kumhusisha mtoto kwenye maamuzi. Ilikuwa ni kuhusu mchakato wa katiba mpya ambapo Bocho alihoji:



Kwa kejeli akasema kuwa:



So, you can see when it comes to crucial decision-makings watoto hawafikiriwi na baadhi yetu. Hawa watoto wanapokua na kuwa vijana, hawajui how to participate in decision-making maana hawajawahi kuhusishwa huko nyumba. They will keep thinking they are people out there who will make decisions for them. They don't need to worry.

And probably wakipita ujana wao, they will not involve children or other people in decision-making kwa sababu wenyewe hawajawahi kushirikishwa.

Wengine wakiwa wakubwa wanaweza kuwa na hata woga wa kufanya maamuzi magumu, because they don't know how to go about making them. Wakati mwingine huwa tunatengeneza madikteta bila hata kujua. Tunakuza watoto ambao they won't listen to anyone watakapokuwa wakubwa.

But children and young people have a right to participate in decision-making as individuals as well as a group. Mtoto yoyote regardless ya umri wake anayo haki ya kushirikishwa kwenye maamuzi yoyote yanayo-affect maisha yake.

Ziko taratibu mahususi za kuwashikirisha watoto hata wale wadogo kwenye kwenye maamuzi. Lakini sidhani kama wazazi au hata watawala wanazijua au kama wanazijua whether wanazitumia ipasavyo kuwashirikisha watoto katika maamuzi.

Tuanzie mwanzo kabisa kwenye the first institution of the society, which is the family. When was the last time you involved a child in a family decision or even in decision which affect the child directly? Then, kuanzia hapo tupande juu mpaka kwenye ngazi ya taifa.
he dad this slide, i did the highlights
 
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Our life expectancy is such as tunakufa kabla hatujawa mzigo kwa taifa. How many of us will live to receive more than we contributed for our pensions? kweli wengi don't even contribute, but vile vile they don't claim it...
Roulette niko nafanya study moja ambayo tunajaribu kuproject life expectancy na with this world of technology we are expecting to see quite dramatic increment ya maisha ya binadamu. tell me how??

kwasasa hivi we are in the nanotechology world and we have started to deal with nanomedicine so zile factors ambazo zilikuwa ni kikwazo kama free drug tumezipunguza kabisa bado tumeincrease theraputics and nanodiagnosis. with the world of nanotech transgenic zinatupatia mazao bomba na meng zaid, water can now be treated easly miundombinu ndo kabisa.

siwez kupreempty hii kazi yote hapa b4 publication but soon you will be seen it kwenye scientific journals na how far nanoatechnology have gone kwenye kubadilisha maisha ya watu. usishangae 5yrs to come ikawa expectancy ni 70+ yrs.
 
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The Demographic Divide

The radically different demographic situation between developed and developing countries illustrates the "demographic divide": the vast gulf in birth and death rates among the world's countries. On one side of this divide are mostly poor countries with relatively high birth rates and low life expectancies. On the other side are mostly wealthy countries with birth rates so low that population decline is all but guaranteed and where average life expectancy extends past age 75, creating rapidly aging populations

Even though Tanzania and Spain have almost the same population size today, Tanzania is projected to more than double its population from 48 million to 138 million in 2050. Spain's population will only slightly increase, from 46 million today to 48 million by 2050. The cause of this enormous difference is lifetime births per woman. Tanzania's total fertility rate of 5.4 children per woman is almost four times greater than Spain's rate of 1.4.

The table shows just how wide these gaps have become.
[HR][/HR][TABLE="width: 570"]
[TR="bgcolor: #E6EBF1"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Tanzania[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Spain[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Population (2012)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48 million[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46 million[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Projected Population (2050)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138 million[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48 million[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lifetime Births per Woman[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Annual Births[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9 million[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]483,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Population Below Age 15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Population Ages 65+[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Population Ages 65+ (2050)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Life Expectancy at Birth[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57 years[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]82 years[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Annual Number of Infant Deaths[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98,000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Adults Ages 15-49 With HIV/AIDS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Source: http://www.prb.org/Publications/Dat...n-data-sheet/fact-sheet-world-population.aspx
 
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nazipenda urgument zako manake zinanifungua akili upande mwingine stay blessed !!

haya ukweli ni kwamba education process huwa ni delay ya kuzaa hasa kwa wanawake, na hili hupelekea kuwa na limitation kwenye uzazi wao.

as fofr me upande wa wanaume sidhan kama sabbau ni kutokuzaa la hasha ila nadhani sabbu kubwa kwao ni kule kutojali matokeo ya kile wanachokifanya ama la ni ile tamaa ambayo wanayo kwamba they need many kids. istoshe hata family planning haiku focus kwenye kuwasaidia wanaume wapunguze kuzaa bali kwa wanawake ambao hata kama hajasoma akizaa sana atazaa watoto 4 kwa maisha ya kileo.

lakin nafikiri kwamba ifike mahali iwe deduced kwamba wanaume ni chanzo cha popn growth na Roulette imagine watoto wengi huesabiwa kwa nani?? ni wazi kwamba ni kwa mama na hata kwenye kaaadi imeandikwa kwamba mimba ya 5 kuendelea ni kidokezo cha hatari so hili humfanya mwanamke ahesabiwe idadi ya watoto anaozaa.

sasa on the other side kuna mwanaume ambaye hakuna anaye muhesabia na huyu ndio mbaya zaid. pata picha mtu ana wake 3 anazalisha kila mke watoto 2 hawa kwa mwanamke wataonekana wako ndani ya range na tutampongeza kumbe mumewe anao wanne zaid, na kwakua haonekani klinic basi hakuna anayeona impact yake kwenye popn growth.

to me kuna ulazima wa kuanzisha sera ya idadi ya watoto wanaozaliwa kwa baba na mtu akaizidisha hapo basi apigwe faini ya kuongezewa muda wa kazi ili kufidia iyo burden.
Hata mimi najifunza mengi kadri ninavozidi kukusoma na kutafuta namna ya kukujibu (maana narudi tena kwenye search, lol). Niliposema mwanaume hazai ndio nilimaanisha yeye hana impact yoyote, na kwa vile hana impact anataka kuwazalisha wenzie bila mpango. Nakwambia wanaume wangekua wanazaa na wanapata tabu tunayo ipata wanawake, ujauzito ungekua umesha ingia kwenye orodha ya STD! (just kidding, half kidding lakini).

Kwa wazo lako la kusema tuhesabu watoto kufatana na baba yes and no. Kwa vile kuzaa huko hakuna impact kwenye maisha yake wala career yake ni sawa tuendelee kuhesabu kwa mama ili tuweze ku-monitor, ila pia ikija suala la kuangalia economic impact maybe tuwe tunahesabu watoto kwa "provider" wao. yaani nani analipa masomo, nani ananunua chakula, nani anawapeleka leave etc. from there tutaweza kuona how mwanaume wa watto 5 anaprovide less per chil compared to yule wa 3 childs, on the same salary. yaani not how many kids a man has got but how many kids the PROVIDER has got (sometimes the provider is a woman)
 
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The Demographic Divide

The radically different demographic situation between developed and developing countries illustrates the "demographic divide": the vast gulf in birth and death rates among the world's countries. On one side of this divide are mostly poor countries with relatively high birth rates and low life expectancies. On the other side are mostly wealthy countries with birth rates so low that population decline is all but guaranteed and where average life expectancy extends past age 75, creating rapidly aging populations

Even though Tanzania and Spain have almost the same population size today, Tanzania is projected to more than double its population from 48 million to 138 million in 2050. Spain's population will only slightly increase, from 46 million today to 48 million by 2050. The cause of this enormous difference is lifetime births per woman. Tanzania's total fertility rate of 5.4 children per woman is almost four times greater than Spain's rate of 1.4.

The table shows just how wide these gaps have become.
[HR][/HR][TABLE="width: 570"]
[TR="bgcolor: #E6EBF1"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Tanzania[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Spain[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Population (2012)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48 million[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46 million[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Projected Population (2050)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138 million[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48 million[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lifetime Births per Woman[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Annual Births[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9 million[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]483,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Population Below Age 15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Population Ages 65+[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Population Ages 65+ (2050)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Life Expectancy at Birth[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57 years[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]82 years[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Annual Number of Infant Deaths[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98,000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Percent of Adults Ages 15-49 With HIV/AIDS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Source: Fact Sheet: World Population Trends 2012 - Population Reference Bureau
Kwa mujibu wa post yangu #6 hapo juu, we could cut significantly the total fertility rate by investing in education. Ila sasa miaka hii ya nyuma we have doubled the expediture in education, but we have also more than doubled the failure rate and doubled the dropout rate:




sijui hizi pesa tuli-invest in the education sector zinafanya nini kwa kweli...
 
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Hata mimi najifunza mengi kadri ninavozidi kukusoma na kutafuta namna ya kukujibu (maana narudi tena kwenye search, lol). Niliposema mwanaume hazai ndio nilimaanisha yeye hana impact yoyote, na kwa vile hana impact anataka kuwazalisha wenzie bila mpango. Nakwambia wanaume wangekua wanazaa na wanapata tabu tunayo ipata wanawake, ujauzito ungekua umesha ingia kwenye orodha ya STD! (just kidding, half kidding lakini).

Kwa wazo lako la kusema tuhesabu watoto kufatana na baba yes and no. Kwa vile kuzaa huko hakuna impact kwenye maisha yake wala career yake ni sawa tuendelee kuhesabu kwa mama ili tuweze ku-monitor, ila pia ikija suala la kuangalia economic impact maybe tuwe tunahesabu watoto kwa "provider" wao. yaani nani analipa masomo, nani ananunua chakula, nani anawapeleka leave etc. from there tutaweza kuona how mwanaume wa watto 5 anaprovide less per chil compared to yule wa 3 childs, on the same salary. yaani not how many kids a man has got but how many kids the PROVIDER has got (sometimes the provider is a woman)
thanks!!
unajua Roulette kama tukiangalia kwa provider hapo ndipo tutakapokuwa tumewapa hawa wanaume likizo ya milele. why saying so................ wanaume wengi siku hizi wametuachia mzigo wanawake, think of wanwake ndio wazalisha mali wa familia na ndio wazazi kwa maisha ya sasa. mwanaume amebaki na jukumu moja tu la uzalishaji mali na ambalo pia he does't play it 100% most of the times tunashare financing of which we like na tunaona fahari.

kama ndivyo basi wahesabiwe idadi ya watoto ya kuwa nao kama ambavyo kwa wanawake inavyofanywa. mimi nasema hivi nikichukulia kwamba kuna wakati wanaume ni wazalisha tu ila hawalei hawa watoto so mwisho wa siku watoto wanateseka. pia hili lingepunguza migogoro hasa ya kuwa na blended families et al (now talking as sociologist lol!)
 
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he dad this slide, i did the highlights
View attachment 97999
Hizi rules zina-apply equally kwa kila leader? Nilisoma review moja ya hiki kitabu alichotumia ilikuwa inauliza kama ni asilimia ngapi kila rule inatakiwa itumike kwenye ngazi mbalimbali za leadership.

Kwa mfano ni muhimu kwa leaders kuwa strategists lakini an enterprise leader anatakiwa afikirie more strategically kuliko team leader.

But chapter one of the book is good.
 

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