Mutation rates in viruses zina predict pandemic kama hii ya coronavirus to strike back with time

Retired

JF-Expert Member
Jul 22, 2016
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If you can not make sense out of it just skip, usitukane!

Kwa wanaoelewa hivi vitu angalau kwa kiasi fulani, pandemic kama hizi ziko likely kutokea in the future.

Publication hii inatoa mwanga kuwa haya ya Covid-19 kwa wanasayansi yalitegemewa. It is no wonder this fatal coronavirus evolved a result of a mutation from a non-fatal strain

Read the following extract from publication in China.

Nimejaribu kufupisha take home message

Research article Open Access

Moderate mutation rate in the SARS coronavirus genome and its implications

Abstract
Background:
The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused a severe global epidemic in 2003 which led to hundreds of deaths and many thousands of hospitalizations. The virus causing SARS was identified as a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and multiple genomic sequences have been revealed since mid-April, 2003. After a quiet summer and fall in 2003, the newly emerged SARS cases in Asia, particularly the latest cases in China, are reinforcing a wide-spread belief that the SARS epidemic would strike back.

With the understanding that SARS-CoV might be with humans for years to come, knowledge of the evolutionary mechanism of the SARS-CoV, including its mutation rate and emergence time, is fundamental to battle this deadly pathogen. To date, the speed at which the deadly virus evolved in nature and the elapsed time before it was transmitted to humans remains poorly understood.

The mutation rate in the SARS-CoV genome was estimated to be 0.80 – 2.38 × 10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year which is in the same order of magnitude as other RNA viruses. The non-synonymous and synonymous substitution rates were estimated to be 1.16 – 3.30 × 10-3 and 1.67 – 4.67 × 10-3 per site per year, respectively. The most recent common ancestor of the 16 sequences was inferred to be present as early as the spring of 2002.

Conclusions: The estimated mutation rates in the SARS-CoV using multiple strategies were not unusual among coronaviruses and moderate compared to those in other RNA viruses. All estimates of mutation rates led to the inference that the SARS-CoV could have been with humans in the spring of 2002 without causing a severe epidemic.
 

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Gama

JF-Expert Member
Jan 9, 2010
12,455
2,000
If you can not make sense out of it just skip, usitukane!

Kwa wanaoelewa hivi vitu angalau kwa kiasi fulani, pandemic kama hizi ziko likely kutokea in the future.

Publication hii inatoa mwanga kuwa haya ya Covid-19 kwa wanasayansi yalitegemewa. It is no wonder this fatal coronavirus evolved a result of a mutation from a non-fatal strain

Read the following extract from publication in China.

Nimejaribu kufupisha take home message

Research article Open Access

Moderate mutation rate in the SARS coronavirus genome and its implications

Abstract
Background:
The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused a severe global epidemic in 2003 which led to hundreds of deaths and many thousands of hospitalizations. The virus causing SARS was identified as a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and multiple genomic sequences have been revealed since mid-April, 2003. After a quiet summer and fall in 2003, the newly emerged SARS cases in Asia, particularly the latest cases in China, are reinforcing a wide-spread belief that the SARS epidemic would strike back.

With the understanding that SARS-CoV might be with humans for years to come, knowledge of the evolutionary mechanism of the SARS-CoV, including its mutation rate and emergence time, is fundamental to battle this deadly pathogen. To date, the speed at which the deadly virus evolved in nature and the elapsed time before it was transmitted to humans remains poorly understood.

The mutation rate in the SARS-CoV genome was estimated to be 0.80 – 2.38 × 10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year which is in the same order of magnitude as other RNA viruses. The non-synonymous and synonymous substitution rates were estimated to be 1.16 – 3.30 × 10-3 and 1.67 – 4.67 × 10-3 per site per year, respectively. The most recent common ancestor of the 16 sequences was inferred to be present as early as the spring of 2002.

Conclusions: The estimated mutation rates in the SARS-CoV using multiple strategies were not unusual among coronaviruses and moderate compared to those in other RNA viruses. All estimates of mutation rates led to the inference that the SARS-CoV could have been with humans in the spring of 2002 without causing a severe epidemic.
Inference yangu ni kuwa hata SARS COV naye alitengenezwa; na kwamba; naye ameonekana ku undergo mutation kwa speed kubwa mbo; na kwamba ; sasa amepotea.


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