Maoni ya Juma Mwapachu kuhusu maslahi ya Tanzania katika EAC

[Kijakazi]

The last official census recording the population of Tanzania occurred in 2012 and showed there were 44,928,923 people living in the country. Of this total population, 1.3 million reside on the islands of Zanzibar. This equates to a population density of 47.5 people per square kilometer (123.1 people per square mile). The population is now estimated at over 51 million, as Tanzania has one of the highest birth rates in the world and more than 44% of the population is under the age of 15. The total fertility rate is 5.01 children born per woman, which is the 18th highest of any country.

Sasa unafikiri na hao wengine hawakui? Wote wanazaana kama TZ tu, Uganda, Kenya Rwanda nao pia grafu yao inakwenda Juu! Haiwezekani TZ kuweza kuwa na asilimia 50% ya watu waishio hili Eneo labda hizo nchi nyingine za Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda na Burundi ziangukiwe na kimondo nakuteketeza Watu!

 

[Kijakazi]

I know, but still a majority fourty something percent.

Hivi wewe Mshikaji Ulisoma Hisabati Kweli? TZ haiwezi kuwa na asilimia 40 ya Idadi ya watu wanaoishi AM kama Kenya peke yake wako Milioni 45, Uganda wanakaribia milioni 40 iweje TZ itengeneze asilimia 40 ya idadi ya watu waishi AM?

 

[Kijakazi]

I beg to differ. The backbone of any modern economy ni infrastructure na sio kilimo as we have been led falsely to believe. Tutumie mapato yetu ya gesi (estimated at $2.5-$3billion annually) kuunda a special infrastructure fund (as Mwapachu has stated) itakayofinance major port, road, rail and energy projects in the country.
Hii dhana ya kuwa waTZ ni wazembe ni ya kipumbavu sana na sikubaliani nao. Amka tu siku moja as early as 3am uone jinsi watu wanavyochakarika kwenda makazini! Kuna report (nitaweka link baadae) ilisema African workers are just as productive as Chinese workers, but the difference is in what happens outside the factories (miundombinu)
Ukijenga kwa mfano road network nzuri na extensive, electrified standard gauge railway network na kufungulia private sector ioperate high speed trains labda kutoka Kigoma hadi Dar in 4hrs, miradi mikubwa ya umeme ukapunguza bei za umeme na maji wawekezaji watajileta wenyewe tu. Hatutakuwa na haja ya kwenda kuwaomba waje. Sector zote za uchumi kuanzia kilimo ulichokitaja hadi utalii zitaimarika. its a ripple effect.
Tuige mfano wa Ethiopia. Ethiopia is investing massively in infrastructure na ndio maana umaskini kule umepungua by a whooping 34% in just ten years!
Nashukuru January Makamba ana idea kama hiyo niliyo outline hapo juu!

Hayo ni mapato tunayoyategemea hapo baadaye au ni Mapato ambayo tayari tunakusanya?

 

[msemakweli]

Hayo ni mapato tunayoyategemea hapo baadaye au ni Mapato ambayo tayari tunakusanya?

Is this a rhetorical qstn?

 

[JokaKuu]

Kwa hiyo nimekujibu bila kusoma post yako?

Post yako nimeisoma ndo maana nimekujibu kwa kila sentensi.

Kama ulikuwa umeisikiliza video nzima ya Mwapachu usingeanzisha uzi wa mistari miwili.



Then start by walking the talking.

Wewe kuanzisha uzi kwa kubase argument yako kwenye maneno ya mwisho ya Mwapachu sawa lakini mie kukujibu kila sentensi yako shida.

To others, every word counts so you better be careful na unachoandika hasa pale ulichoandika kwenye sentensi moja kinapojicontradict na kile ulichoandika kwenye sentensi inayofuata.

So, be responsible for what you write bse wengine huwa tunasoma na kujibu neno kwa neno.

Hatusomi juu juu. Ila kama hupendi attention to details, I am more than happy kukaa kando ili nisiharibu huu mjadala.

..bila shaka hukunielewa.

..lakini mjadala wetu, na zaidi michango yako, ni muhimu.

..hivyo basi nakuomba tuendelee na mjadala wetu.

 

[Kijakazi]

Is this a rhetorical qstn?

Sijakuelewa napenda kujua, kuhusu hayo mapato yatokanayo na Gesi kama tayari tunakusanya ama tunategema kukusanya!

 

[msemakweli]

Sijakuelewa napenda kujua, kuhusu hayo mapato yatokanayo na Gesi kama tayari tunakusanya ama tunategema kukusanya!

Hayo ndiyo mapato ambayo world bank imeestimate serikali ya TZ itakuwa inapata kwa mwaka pindi gesi ya Mtwara ikianza kuchimbwa na kuuzwa.
Hivi kwenye hili shirikisho la EA suala la mafuta na gesi litakuaje? Ni mali ya individual states au mali ya shirikisho? JokaKuu IAfrika jMali

 

[JokaKuu]

I beg to differ. The backbone of any modern economy ni infrastructure na sio kilimo as we have been led falsely to believe. Tutumie mapato yetu ya gesi (estimated at $2.5-$3billion annually) kuunda a special infrastructure fund (as Mwapachu has stated) itakayofinance major port, road, rail and energy projects in the country.
Hii dhana ya kuwa waTZ ni wazembe ni ya kipumbavu sana na sikubaliani nao. Amka tu siku moja as early as 3am uone jinsi watu wanavyochakarika kwenda makazini! Kuna report (nitaweka link baadae) ilisema African workers are just as productive as Chinese workers, but the difference is in what happens outside the factories (miundombinu)
Ukijenga kwa mfano road network nzuri na extensive, electrified standard gauge railway network na kufungulia private sector ioperate high speed trains labda kutoka Kigoma hadi Dar in 4hrs, miradi mikubwa ya umeme ukapunguza bei za umeme na maji wawekezaji watajileta wenyewe tu. Hatutakuwa na haja ya kwenda kuwaomba waje. Sector zote za uchumi kuanzia kilimo ulichokitaja hadi utalii zitaimarika. its a ripple effect.
Tuige mfano wa Ethiopia. Ethiopia is investing massively in infrastructure na ndio maana umaskini kule umepungua by a whooping 34% in just ten years!
Nashukuru January Makamba ana idea kama hiyo niliyo outline hapo juu!

..thank u.

..kuna jamaa mmoja anaitwa Kibona niliwahi kumsoma ameandika kuhusu masuala ya kiuchumi yanayohusu Ethiopia.

..huyu anaweza kutusaidia hapa.

 

[Kijakazi]

Hayo ndiyo mapato ambayo world bank imeestimate serikali ya TZ itakuwa inapata kwa mwaka pindi gesi ya Mtwara ikianza kuchimbwa na kuuzwa.
Hivi kwenye hili shirikisho la EA suala la mafuta na gesi litakuaje? Ni mali ya individual states au mali ya shirikisho? JokaKuu IAfrika jMali

Sasa si unaona nimekuelwa vizuri kabisa kwa Kiswahili, saa zingine Lugha pia huficha mengi, kwa Kiswahili mada inaeleweka vizuri zaidi!

 

[Tokyo40]

I beg to differ. The backbone of any modern economy ni infrastructure na sio kilimo as we have been led falsely to believe. Tutumie mapato yetu ya gesi (estimated at $2.5-$3billion annually) kuunda a special infrastructure fund (as Mwapachu has stated) itakayofinance major port, road, rail and energy projects in the country.
Hii dhana ya kuwa waTZ ni wazembe ni ya kipumbavu sana na sikubaliani nao. Amka tu siku moja as early as 3am uone jinsi watu wanavyochakarika kwenda makazini! Kuna report (nitaweka link baadae) ilisema African workers are just as productive as Chinese workers, but the difference is in what happens outside the factories (miundombinu)
Ukijenga kwa mfano road network nzuri na extensive, electrified standard gauge railway network na kufungulia private sector ioperate high speed trains labda kutoka Kigoma hadi Dar in 4hrs, miradi mikubwa ya umeme ukapunguza bei za umeme na maji wawekezaji watajileta wenyewe tu. Hatutakuwa na haja ya kwenda kuwaomba waje. Sector zote za uchumi kuanzia kilimo ulichokitaja hadi utalii zitaimarika. its a ripple effect.
Tuige mfano wa Ethiopia. Ethiopia is investing massively in infrastructure na ndio maana umaskini kule umepungua by a whooping 34% in just ten years!
Nashukuru January Makamba ana idea kama hiyo niliyo outline hapo juu!

GDP per capita China - US$ 7000
GDP per capita TZ - US$ 700

Mkuu, don't compare apples and oranges.

Productivity is the amount of output per hour of labor. Gross domestic product is the value of final goods and services produced. GDP and productivity have a positive relationship, generally the greater the productivity growth, the greater the per capita GDP is. Industrialized countries usually have a fairly high productivity level and therefore have a high per capita GDP and standard of living. Developing nations have a lower productivity level because they don’t have a large supply of equipment, tools, educated and experienced workers, and technology. Since their workers aren’t especially productive, these nations do not have a lot of goods to sell or trade for, and their citizens have a fairly low standard of living.

The governments of developing nations can do several things to help the people of their country to boost productivity. Govenments should promote property rights and political stability. Political stability encourages foreign investors to buy capital, and thus provide resources that will help the developing nation to increase their capital stock. Governments should try to trade with other countries, because an even an unproductive country can have a comparative advantage in trading a certain good. Encouraging education will result in more skilled workers who may have new ideas about production.

If developing nations make some of these changes, it could help bring their economies out of a viscious cycle and level the global playing field even more. Currently, nations such as China and India are experiencing the catch-up effect.

Source: world press, economist.com, imf.com

PS- When the day arrives when simple things like sewage system functions, then we can claim that we are not wavivu wa kazi. Whatever happened to our highly educated engineers? It has only been 50 years! Can't a private sector do this job? Surely the government failed.

Why can't we use all these Ph.D brainpower to fix simple things?

 

[Nguruvi3]

(1)Watanzania ni waoga mno wa mabadiliko ya kisiasa na hawaoni mbele sana kutokana na fikra mgando.

(2)Wananchi wanategemea serikali iwatoe kwenye umasikini wakati uzalishaji na upokeaji wa kodi ni mdogo.
Watanzania wengi ni wavivu wa kazi na wakwepaji wa kodi. Starehe tumeiweka mbele.
Kila siku tunazalisha aina mpya ya pombe badala ya kuzalisha kompyuta na madawa ya kujikinga na magonjwa.

(3)Sisi bado tunasubiri kuonyeshwa na serikali jinsi ya kuzalisha kama wakati wa ujamaa.
Kuna wengine hapa JF pia wanadai sera za Ujamaa ndio nzuri zaidi kwa Watanzania.
Wameshasahau njaa na shida za ukosefu wa bidhaa chini ya siasa ya ujamaa na kujitegemea ya Nyerere. Tunasubiri kulishwa, kuvishwa, kuelimishwa na kutajirishwa na serikali yetu badala ya kujituma wenyewe.

(4)Wakati wenzetu na nchi nyingine duniani wameruhusu Uraia pacha, sisi bado tunang'ang'ania eti itaathiri usalama wa taifa. Sababu kubwa ya kupinga sio usalama wa taifa bali ni kutoona mbele kutokana na fikra mgando. Upingangaji wa uraia pacha unaenda kinyume na mambo ya dunia ya kileo. Mbingu hazijashuka Kenya wala Uganda waliporuhusu uraia pacha!

(5)Swala la ardhi ndio kabisa usilishike. Jamii ya Tanzania inategemea kuwa wakulima wadogo wadogo, masikini na wenye elimu duni ya kilimo ndio njia pekee ya kuilisha jamii. Kuna ardhi kubwa tunashindwa kuitumia kwa kuwa hatuna uwezo wa kulima kitalaamu kwa kutumia matrekta na mbegu za kisasa. Ndio maana mpaka leo tunanunua matunda nje badala ya kuzalisha nchini. Watanzania watailalamikia serikali kwa ujinga huu lakini ukweli ni kuwa hawako tayari kumpa bepari ardhi ili alime kwa wingi. Wako tayari kumlipa bepari mwingine anayoishi Afrika Kusini asiowapa ajira wala kodi, ili mradi asiiguse ardhi yao.

(6)Tusifikiri ukubwa wa watu na ardhi, pamoja na rasilimali ndio itatuletea maendeleo zaidi ya wenzetu. Utajiri ni elimu bora, kwenda na wakati katika mambo ya Uzalishaji, utamaduni wa kuchapa kazi na siasa bora. Mfano hai: Singapore.

Ndugu yangu naona umejibu kwa jazba zaidi kuliko kuangalia uhalisia wa mambo. Naomba nikujibu nukta zako kama nilivyo zianisha hapo juu.

1. Ni kweli Watanzania ni waoga katika hii EAC. Je, uoga wao ni wa kipuuzi au una maana?

Mwaka 1967 ilianzishwa EAC. Tulikubali kila kitu kiwe cha EAC bila kuwa na msingi wa umoja uliojengwa na wananchi na wala si viongozi. Asubuhi moja Charles Njonjo akaaamua kuzuia kila kitu.

Tanzania hatukuwa na kitu, thanks to China, Bulgaria, na marafiki zetu kama Msumbiji waliokuja kutuokoa. Je huoni kuna kila sababu ya kuchukua tahadhari. Fool me once you, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

2. Hakuna wananchi wa taifa lolote duniani waliojikomboa katika umasikini bila serikali za nchi au maeneo yao kuwa na mipango mizuri. Jana, Rais wa Marekani Obama alitoa state of the union speech.

Alichokiongelea kama asilimia 85 ni jinsi ya kupunguza umasikini kule Marekani kwa masikini ambao wao wanawaita middle class.
Hao Kenya, Uganda n.k. hawaamki tu kama kondoo, kama yapo mafanikio, hayo ni matokeo ya mipango ya serikali zao.
Kuna maendeleo ya mtu mmoja mmoja, lakini huwezi kukwepa mipango ya pamoja. Ndio maana tuna serikali na si zizi la ng'ombe

3. Kenya waliwahi kukabiliana na njaa, si mara moja au mbili. Hawakuwa wajamaa.
Malawi wamekabiliana na njaa, si mara moja au mbili. Hawakuwa wajamaa
Nchi zote zina matatizo, hivyo ujamaa usiwe kisingizio.

Mapigano ya Kenya hawakusababishwa na ujamaa, huoni kama hilo ni tatizo kama mengine. Rwanda hawakuwahi

Na muhimu katika hoja ni kuwa, hebu tueleze ni taifa gani duniani lisilotekeleza ujamaa? Tutajie moja tu.

4. Kuruhusu Urais pacha si tatio ni suala la kutangaza tu. Tatizo ni matatizo yatakayotokana na hilo.
Sijui mwenzangu una mtazamo gani, hata mimi ningependa Uraia pacha.

Inapotokea hakuna hata nationa ID kama mataifa mengine unayosema dunia huoni kuna walakini.
Au labda ungeruhusu tu kila mtu wa taifa lingine awe raia kwavile hatutumii akili zetu bali kufanya mambo kama wengine.

Hao waliopo tayari wana matayarisho yao. Suala hapa ni kuwa jambo hili umeliangalia kutoka angle zote au ni kwa vile Uganda wanayo basi ni kudandia treni, utaamua unakwenda wapi baadaye.

5. Ardhi, leo unasema hivyo kwavile unayo. Waulize Kenya, wanachinjana kwasababu gani?
Nenda Kilosa na Arusha uone nini kinaendelea kwa wakulima na wafugaji. Wewe bado huoni tatizo unataka tatizo zaidi

Kama Nyerere angeitoa kama njugu pengine leo wewe usingekuwa na hatahatua kumi.
Lazima utembee duniani uone matatizo ya ardhi. Si suala la kulima, ni zaidi ya hapo

Zimbabwe kuna ugomvi wa ardhi. Waulize Rwanda kwanini wanakuja kuishi Tanzania.
Waulize Kenya, asilimia 10 ya population inapomiliki asilimia 90 ya ardhi maana yake ni nini.

Kama unadhani ardhi si muhimu, iweje wenzetu waone ni umuhimu katika EAC. Kwanini basi wasiache tu kwa vile si muhimu.

Waulize Waisrael na Wapalestina, na fuatili migogoro ya dunia ukue chanzo chake ni nini.

Hapo middle east wanapigana binamu ambao wote wamepokea manabii na mitume.
Ugomvi mkubwa si imani, ni ardhi.

Hapa huna hoja kabisa, walioishi wakati wa masetla ya kigiriki na ukoloni wanjua.
Wewe huoni maana ya ardhi kwasababu unayo au inawezekana ni Mkenya huna.
Kwa wenye kutumia vichwa, hapa watakuwa wabatabasamu kama si kukucheka

(6) well la elimu ni sawa, lakini hayo si mambo ya ndani?
Na hao wenzetu wa EAC elimu imewasaidiaje kumaliza umasikini.
Unaweza kutueleza ubora wa masikini wa Uganda/Kenya Vs Tanzania ili tujue?

 

[Tokyo40]

I know. I take that back. But we will still be a majority.
Tanzania
(51/150)*100 = 34%
Kenya
(45/150)*100 = 30%
Uganda
(39/150)*100 = 26%
This means that the EA parliament will have a majority of Tanzanians in it.

I salute you for accepting a mistake, few do it so humbly here.

Now, a majority in the parliament means nothing as far as economic development is concerned. Blocking economic reforms or not cooperating with regional leaders will only lead to isolation. EAC of today is not that of 1970. It will go ahead with or without Tanzania. It will not BREAK apart.

 

[PLOII]

critical argument but it is foolish in real context

 

[Tokyo40]

Ndugu yangu naona umejibu kwa jazba zaidi kuliko kuangalia uhalisia wa mambo. Naomba nikujibu nukta zako kama nilivyo zianisha hapo juu.

1. Ni kweli Watanzania ni waoga katika hii EAC. Je, uoga wao ni wa kipuuzi au una maana?

Mwaka 1967 ilianzishwa EAC. Tulikubali kila kitu kiwe cha EAC bila kuwa na msingi wa umoja uliojengwa na wananchi na wala si viongozi. Asubuhi moja Charles Njonjo akaaamua kuzuia kila kitu.

Tanzania hatukuwa na kitu, thanks to China, Bulgaria, na marafiki zetu kama Msumbiji waliokuja kutuokoa. Je huoni kuna kila sababu ya kuchukua tahadhari. Fool me once you, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

2. Hakuna wananchi wa taifa lolote duniani waliojikomboa katika umasikini bila serikali za nchi au maeneo yao kuwa na mipango mizuri. Jana, Rais wa Marekani Obama alitoa state of the union speech.

Alichokiongelea kama asilimia 85 ni jinsi ya kupunguza umasikini kule Marekani kwa masikini ambao wao wanawaita middle class.
Hao Kenya, Uganda n.k. hawaamki tu kama kondoo, kama yapo mafanikio, hayo ni matokeo ya mipango ya serikali zao.
Kuna maendeleo ya mtu mmoja mmoja, lakini huwezi kukwepa mipango ya pamoja. Ndio maana tuna serikali na si zizi la ng'ombe

3. Kenya waliwahi kukabiliana na njaa, si mara moja au mbili. Hawakuwa wajamaa.
Malawi wamekabiliana na njaa, si mara moja au mbili. Hawakuwa wajamaa
Nchi zote zina matatizo, hivyo ujamaa usiwe kisingizio.

Mapigano ya Kenya hawakusababishwa na ujamaa, huoni kama hilo ni tatizo kama mengine. Rwanda hawakuwahi

Na muhimu katika hoja ni kuwa, hebu tueleze ni taifa gani duniani lisilotekeleza ujamaa? Tutajie moja tu.

4. Kuruhusu Urais pacha si tatio ni suala la kutangaza tu. Tatizo ni matatizo yatakayotokana na hilo.
Sijui mwenzangu una mtazamo gani, hata mimi ningependa Uraia pacha.

Inapotokea hakuna hata nationa ID kama mataifa mengine unayosema dunia huoni kuna walakini.
Au labda ungeruhusu tu kila mtu wa taifa lingine awe raia kwavile hatutumii akili zetu bali kufanya mambo kama wengine.

Hao waliopo tayari wana matayarisho yao. Suala hapa ni kuwa jambo hili umeliangalia kutoka angle zote au ni kwa vile Uganda wanayo basi ni kudandia treni, utaamua unakwenda wapi baadaye.

5. Ardhi, leo unasema hivyo kwavile unayo. Waulize Kenya, wanachinjana kwasababu gani?
Nenda Kilosa na Arusha uone nini kinaendelea kwa wakulima na wafugaji. Wewe bado huoni tatizo unataka tatizo zaidi

Kama Nyerere angeitoa kama njugu pengine leo wewe usingekuwa na hatahatua kumi.
Lazima utembee duniani uone matatizo ya ardhi. Si suala la kulima, ni zaidi ya hapo

Zimbabwe kuna ugomvi wa ardhi. Waulize Rwanda kwanini wanakuja kuishi Tanzania.
Waulize Kenya, asilimia 10 ya population inapomiliki asilimia 90 ya ardhi maana yake ni nini.

Kama unadhani ardhi si muhimu, iweje wenzetu waone ni umuhimu katika EAC. Kwanini basi wasiache tu kwa vile si muhimu.

Waulize Waisrael na Wapalestina, na fuatili migogoro ya dunia ukue chanzo chake ni nini.

Hapo middle east wanapigana binamu ambao wote wamepokea manabii na mitume.
Ugomvi mkubwa si imani, ni ardhi.

Hapa huna hoja kabisa, walioishi wakati wa masetla ya kigiriki na ukoloni wanjua.
Wewe huoni maana ya ardhi kwasababu unayo au inawezekana ni Mkenya huna.
Kwa wenye kutumia vichwa, hapa watakuwa wabatabasamu kama si kukucheka

(6) well la elimu ni sawa, lakini hayo si mambo ya ndani?
Na hao wenzetu wa EAC elimu imewasaidiaje kumaliza umasikini.
Unaweza kutueleza ubora wa masikini wa Uganda/Kenya Vs Tanzania ili tujue?

Mkuu, nashukuru kwa maoni yako. Naomba nikujibu.

1. EAC ya miaka ya madikteta sio EAC ya leo. Watanzania kama wewe na mimi tuna sauti ya kutoa maoni yetu kuhusu huu umoja. Kwa nionavyo mimi kama mfanyabiashara na mlipe kodi, Tanzania ndani ya EAC ina faida kuliko nje.

Kwa kuwa uzalishaji wetu ni mdogo, Viwanda vya Kenya vimetusaidia kupata bidhaa kwa bei nafuu kwa kuwa wana ofisi huku sasa na gharama zimepungua. Hii ni moja tu ya faida ya umoja huu.

Mimi siamini kuwa Tanzania itapata faida kuliko hasara kama itakwenda pole pole na muungano huu. Dunia ya 1967 sio sawa sawa na dunia ya 2015. Kama mfuataji wa habari za dunia, unaelewa kuwa Uiingereza wameshaambiwa kuwa hawatabembelezwa kuwa wanachama wa EU. Wako huru kutoka. Tanzania vile vile hawatabembelezwa kama watapinga sera amazo nchi nyingine zinataka kufuata katika huu umoja kama Haki ya raia wa EAC kufanya kazi kokote bila ya kibali. Sioni kwa nini sisi tukatae. Tuna Mengi ya kujifunza kwa wenzetu maofisini na viwandani kwetu. Sifa za wafanyakazi wa Kenya Tanzania zinajulikana na hata uzalishaji wao kwa mtu mmoja ni kubwa kuliko sisi. Watoto wetu wengi wanasoma Kwao pia.

Kwa kukujibu, uoga wao ni wa kipuuzi.

2. Watanzania wajifunze kutafuta kazi bila ya kutegemea serikali kwa kila kitu. Ukisoma magazeti, watu wanauliza kwa nini Maisha yao ni duni wakati tuna mali? Hawafahamu au hawataki kuambiwa kuwa migodi ina gharama kubwa kuliko uwezo wa serikali yao. Nilimaanisha kuwa wawekezaji wa nje ndio wenye uwezo wa kufanya hio kazi hio na hamna Mtanzania aliyojitokeza kwa kuwa gharama za biashara hizo ni kubwa mno. Tunaongelea $300 million kama mtaji wa chini. Serikali itaweza vipi kumsaidia Mtanzania zaidi hapo zaidi ya kumlipisha mwekezaji kodi na kupokea share yake?

Serikali itaweza vipi kutafuta kazi kwa jamii ambayo haina utamaduni wa kujisomesha? Asilimia ngapi ya Watanzania wana elimu ya juu?

Wakenya wamesoma na wanakula matunda yao. Sisi ndio kwanza leo tunajifunza Somo la MBA. Kama wao wamejipanga, kwa nini sisi hatujipangi?

3. Kuhusu njaa, nilizungumzia njaa ya Tanzania iliyoletwa na siasa ya Kijamaa ya kutoruhusu watu binafsi wazalishe. Tulikuwa na upungufu wa kila kitu, kinyume na uzalishaji wa viwanda vya Kenya. Uko huru kumtetea Nyerere na ujamaa wake na mimi niko huru kusema kuwa ujamaa umeua uzalishaji wa mali Tanzania ya Nyerere. Tutofautishe njaa ya kukosa mvua na njaa na kutoweza nchi kulisha raia wake kutokana na siasa sio " kazi ya Mungu".

Ujamaa ninaoupinga mimi ni ule wa Nyerere wa kuzuia uzalishaji wa biashara binafsi na utaifishaji wa mali za watu bila malipo. Sijapinga sehemu yoyote ujamaa wa kusaidia wananchi wa hali ya chini kupata tiba bure au fedha kutoka serikalini kama huko Marekani au ulaya.

4. Kuhusu uraia pacha. Kama hatuna national ID ni uzembe wa nani? Ofisi zipo wazi kuomba ID. Pia, kuna vyeti vya kuzaliwa. Kwa vyovyote, kama raia wa Kiafrika wa Kenya na Ghana kuweza kuruhusu uraia pacha, sisi kutoruhusu ni kinyume. Kwa vyovyote, Wazawa wengi wameshachukua uraia mwingine ili waweze kupata kazi bora, Maisha bora na kusafiri bila ya kizuizi cha kuomba viza. Ni ujinga raia hao hao kuomba viza kama wageni katika nchi yao. Na nakuhakikishia kama kuchukua uraia mwingine ili upewe kazi ya $150,000 kwa mwaka, hamna Mtanzania atakaokataa Dili hiyo. Tumbo linatangulia kabla ya Uzalendo.

5. Wewe unaongelea ardhi kama tuko vitani. Mimi nataka ardhi itumike ili ipatikane economies of scale kibiashara. Kama serikali haitaruhusu bepari kutumia ardhi kubwa kulima, basi haitaweza kuzalisha mazao kwa faida nyingi. No access to large track of land = no economies of scale = low productivity . Simple as that.

Kama wakulima na wafugaji wanagombana, basi kuna matatizo katika jamii sio kosa la mkulima bepari kutaka kulima kwa wingi, kwa faida na kutumia kilimo na vifaa vya kisasa.


Bila shaka, ukizungumzia Palestina, wamepokonywa ardhi na Wayahudi lakini haihusiani na kilimo nyumbani. Aidha wape ardhi wakulima wadogo na sahau mazao ya kusafirisha nje kupata forex au Mpe ardhi kubwa bepari aweze kulima kwa faida na kwa uwezo mkubwa na wa Kisasa . There is no alternative.

Mimi naunga mkono sera za kibepari. Leo tunazalisha $40 bilioni na kupanda pole pole. Je, wakati wa ujamaa, tulizalisha kiasi gani?

Umasikini upo katika kila uchumi duniani lakini bado haijapatikana sera inayoweza kuutokomeza umasikini haraka kuliko sera ya kibepari. Leo Kenya wana uchumi mkubwa na wanatuuzia bidhaa nyingi kwa sababu waliruhusiwa siku nyingi kufanya biashara binafsi. Elimu yao inawasaidia kuona mbali. Angalia walivyojipanga Kenya, Uganda na Rwanda. Inanikumbusha walivyojipanga Ufaransa, Ujerumani na Italia ilipozaliwa EEC pamoja na nchi nyingine ndogo tatu. Wengine wakabaki kuomba omba nje ya kambi huku watu ndani wanakagua maombi kwa muda wao EEC ilipostawi.

 

[Kibona]

..thank u.

..kuna jamaa mmoja anaitwa Kibona niliwahi kumsoma ameandika kuhusu masuala ya kiuchumi yanayohusu Ethiopia.

..huyu anaweza kutusaidia hapa.

Mkuu Jokakuu nianze kwa kusema nakubaliana na Msemakweli kwa 100%. Sasa ili nieleweke vizuri nitoe mifano miwili itakayokuwa msingi wa hoja. moja ni kampuni ya Apple na pili ni Adidas. Apple ni kampuni la kimarekani ambalo kwasasa limechukua usukani ktk elekronic industry, lakini tofauti na watu wanavyofikiri Apple haitengenezi kwa 100% product zake kama simu na computer, kimsingi apple wanatengeneza parts ambazo sio zaidi ya 10% ya simu nzima. Parts zingine zote wameoutsorce kwa makampuni mengine ambayo asilimia kubwa yako nje ya marekani. Sababu ni kuwa production costs ktk marekani ni kubwa hivyo wanaona wakioutsorce kwa makampuni ambayo asilimia kubwa yako china na India.Wanachofanya wao wanainnovate products brands mpya na wakati mwingine wananunua innovations ambazo zinauzwa na makampuni yaliyoamua kuspecialize ktk innovations kama International Business Machines (IBM) halafu wanatoa specifications kwa partners wanaotengeneza parts ili watengeneze vile Apple wanavyotaka. Sasa sababu kwanini makampuni haya yanayozalisha IT parts yanakimbilia china na India ni kwasababu ya production costs kama energy, raw materials na human resorces ziko chini. Kwa hiyo Apple wao wameconcentrate ktk marketing na hapa wameajiri maengineer na marketing managers wengi kutoka India kwasababu wahindi wameonekana wako vizuri ktk masuala ya IT kwa karibu sawa na waisrael na wale wa marekani na ulaya lakini sasa wahindi ni cheap zaidi hivyo wameamua kumaximize profit. Ukiangalia bei ya iphone 5 na versions zingine mpaka latest version ya iphone ktk electronic supermarkets kubwa za ulaya kama Mediamarkt na Saturn inaanzia Euro 600 na kuendelea hadi zaidi ya Euro 1000. lakini production cost ya kila iphone 5 ni Euro 149 tu, hapo partners wote waliotengeza parts kama Kodak, Intel n.k wameshalipwa. Ina maana hela inayobaki inaenda kwa kampuni ya Apple na serikali ya marekani kama kodi (ndio maana juzi tu hapa Obama kasema uchumi wa marekani hautegemei mafuta pekee bali kuna ipads, google, IBM n.k)
Adidas ni kampuni la kijerumani lakini haliangaiki na kuagiza pamba wala kuzalisha nguo Ujerumani bali wanachofanya wanadesign fashion ya nguo halafu wanawapa wazalishaji ambao wengi walikuwa china na India lakini sasa wanakimbilia Bangladesh kwasababu production costs ziko chini zaidi. Gharama ya kutengeneza shati moja Bangladesh ni Euro 7 tu lakini shati hilo likiingia sokoni ulaya na marekani linauzwa kuanzia Euro 20 mpaka hata Euro 100. Jacket linatengenezwa kwa Euro 16 linauzwa ulaya kuanzia Euro 40 mpaka Euro 200. hapo utaona jinsi wanavyojitahidi kuminimize production costs
Sasa hizo value chains za multinational companies zipo nyingi na wao formula ni moja minimize cost maximize profit. Sie waafrika tuna options mbili moja ni kuamua kukataa kabisa free economy na utandawazi na pili ni kuhakikisha tunakuwa sehemu ya hizo value chains. La kwanza haliwezekani maana ndio ulikuwa mtazamo wa viongozi kama akina Nyerere na likashindikana, lililobaki ni kuhakikisha basi tunastruggle kuwa sehemu ya kila value chain na ili tuweze kuwa sehemu yao basi pa kuanzia ni kuhakikisha ktk nchi yetu gharama za uzalishaji ziko chini. Gharama zitapungua kama tutaweza kuimarisha uzalishaji wa umeme wa kutosha, miundombinu ya barabara, reli, bandari, viwanja vya ndege na kuwa na shirika la ndege linaloeleweka. Haya yote tukiyafanya sio tu tutavutia makampuni ya kimataifa bali pia tutachochea ujasiriamali ktk nchi ikiwa ni pamoja na ujasiriamali ktk sekta ya kilimo hivyo na kilimo kitakua kwa kasi. Ethiopia wameonesha mwelekeo mzuri maana wameamua kuadress tatizo la energy na miundombinu pamoja na kuhamasisha sekta ya viwanda. Sie hata shirika la ndege linatusumbua na hii ni kwasababu bado kizazi cha mawazo ya kijamaa kina nguvu; huwezi kumchukua mtu aliyeshindwa kusimamia NIC ukampeleka kufufua ATCL, huo ni utani. Serikali makini ingeamua kufanya PPP (publi private partnership) yaani ingebaki na hisa 50% na 50% wangepewa watu binafsi na management ingekuwa inaendeshwa kwa misingi ya shirika binafsi ili ili kuondoa tatizo la usimamizi,siku hizi mashirika mengi yanayofanya vizuri yanaendeshwa kwa ubia baina ya serikali na sekta binafsi kwasababu ushindani ktk sekta hiyo umekuwa mkubwa kiasi kwamba kwa utaratibu wa serikali inavyoendesha mambo yake haitawezekana kuwa na shirika lenye nguvu. kwasasa ndio maana shirika halina kitu lakini lina wafanyakazi zaidi ya mara mbili ya Precision. Au kama wanaona shida kufufua ATCL wangekubali kununua share za Precision kama walivyoshauriwa lakini wakakataa. Madhara ya kutokuwa na shirika la ndege lenye nguvu ni makubwa; mfano ktk biashara ya maua duniani wazalishaji wakubwa ni Uholanzi, Colombia na Kenya lakini ukiangalia utakuta watanzania wako ktk nafasi ya kuzalisha zaidi na pamoja na kutokuwa na shirika la ndege wanazalisha na kwenda kusafirisha kwa kutumia uwanja wa jomo kenyatta, wakenya walipojisikia tu wakapiga marufuku kutumia uwanja wao, utalii pia unaathirika hili nadhani mmeliona hata juzijuzi tu kenya walichokifanya.
Kuna figure nyingi ambazo mtu yeyote anayeitakia mema Tanzania zitamgusa sana akizifahamu, ila la msingi tu ni kuanzia hapo baada ya kupunguza gharama za uzalishaji na kuvutia makampuni makubwa ndio tuanze kujenga makampuni yetu kama ambavyo china sasa hivi wana makampuni kama Tekno n.k. maana nao walianza kwanza kutengeneza mazingira na wakavutia wawekezaji halafu ndio wakajenga uwezo wa kujenga makampuni yao.
Pia tujue kuwa hakuna Multinational company litakalovutiwa na tax holiday kama serikali inavyofikiri, makampuni hayo yanaangalia faida watakayozalisha ktk mazingira fulani, hawawezi kuwekeza mahali penye gharama kubwa za uzalishaji kisa eti kuna tax holiday. Ingekuwa issue ni tax holiday wangebaki kwenye nchi zao na wakaomba tax holiday na wakapewa. Wanachoangali ni competitive advantage ya nchi husika kulinganisha na nchi zingine. Kampuni nyingi zinazofuata tax holiday sio kampuni za kutusaidia kuimarisha uchumi maana nyingi zinastruggle tu hazina nguvu wala hazina brand names za kueleweka na ndio maana tax holiday ikielekea kuisha wanafunga virago au wanabadili jina na kujifanya wanaondoka hivyo anakuja mwekezaji mwingine ili sasa aanze upya kuinjoy tax holiday. Haiwezekani kampuni kama BMW la ujerumani lenye viwanda 27 vya kutengeneza magari vilivyo ktk nchi mbalimbali duniani ije ibadili jina kwaajili ya kurefusha tax holiday.
Mwisho ni vizuri tukajua kitu kimoja kuwa Kuungana sio guarantee ya kuwa na nguvu ya kimaendeleo. Mpaka sasa Business Models zinaonesha kuwa kuwa na soko kubwa ni factor moja wapo ya kuendelea kiuchumi, lakini pia hakuna nchi iliyoendelea kwasababu tu imeungana. US imeendelea kutokana na factor nyingi na muungano uliwezekana kwasababu wakati ule masuala ya sovereignity yalikuwa bado hivyo ilikuwa rahisi hata kulazimisha muungano. Kwa dunia ya sasa ni vizuri tunapointegrate tusiwe na mawazo ya kusacrifice nchi tukitarajia eti kuna siku tutakuwa shirikisho hicho kitu sio rahisi. Tunatakiwa tuconcetrate kwenye kuongeza efficiency ktk uzalishaji na human resorces hayo mengine ni siasa maana kama issue ni wingi wa resorce na wingi wa watu basi DRC na Nigeria zisingekuwa hapo zilipo. na pia tujue kitu kimoja wakati wowote unapoongoza nchi ndogo na management inakuwa rahisi kuliko nchi kubwa, sasa kama tumeshindwa kuendeleza nchi moja moja kiuchumi itawezekana vipi watu wale wale wakaweza kuongoza kwa mafanikio shirikisho la nchi tano? Hiyo ni sawa na mtu kushindwa kufanya biashara ya mtaji wa milion moja halafu akawa anaomba milion 100 akiahidi ataweza kuendesha hiyo biashara yenye mtaji mkubwa.

 

[IAfrika]

Hayo ndiyo mapato ambayo world bank imeestimate serikali ya TZ itakuwa inapata kwa mwaka pindi gesi ya Mtwara ikianza kuchimbwa na kuuzwa.
Hivi kwenye hili shirikisho la EA suala la mafuta na gesi litakuaje? Ni mali ya individual states au mali ya shirikisho? JokaKuu IAfrika jMali

Duh! Sijaona watu wakimwaga knowledge kuhusu EA kama kwa hii thread, leave for some few threadblockers.

I have been following the debate the entire day and I have seen some great contributions to this topic.

On your query, msemakweli, up to now I have not seen anyone advocating for natural resources like gas and oil to be part of EAC issues or its future successors. I personally think that it would be a bad idea to have land and natural resources as regional issues.

I have picked up a few main talking points from the posts here mainly on infrastructure, agriculture and why integration when we are good individually?

Nothing opens up economies like infrastructure be they internal or external. Whether you are linking resources to markets, connecting communities to hospitals and schools, providing electricity to help preserve agricultural produce or communication of vital information to people or between people. Infrastructure results in mobilization of more resources around those infrastructure projects like agriculture and real estate resulting in thriving rural areas, markets, trade centers, towns and cities. The question is how do you fund them and pay for them? The Ambassador in that video says that now if you ask AFDB to fund a road in TZ they will turn your request down but if you tell them that you want connect TZ with a market in EA they will fund it. The case in point here is viability and feasibility of these infrastructure projects. A recent meeting to lobby funds for EAC infrastructure projects had people all over the world falling over themselves in eagerness to fund EAC infrastructure projects that require $100billion in the next 10years. This is big money for an EAC that is about $100billion in GDP, meaning that you can not even contemplate borrowing this funds here in EA without major inflationary effects and starving the private sector money for development thus foreign financiers. Now that we know we can get money is easily available when we are EAC how do we pay for this loans? This is a huge burden for anyone especially individual countries. The burden is more bearable for a more integrated EAC of $100billion (10% per year) than a separate and economically constrained EA. Some few cautions to this infrastructure projects is that just make sure you not building roads and bridges to nowhere. If you building houses build where the jobs are so that you don't end up like this town in China, is it Shanghai where there are 1.5million unoccupied houses because the jobs are in a different town. Others are corruption and shoddy work.

When it comes to Agriculture, Africa that has 60% of arable land in the world spends $35Billion per year on food imports, you can imagine what can happen to our Balance of Payments by just growing enough food for ourselves even before we start talking about manufacturing. Heck even Thailand exports more food than Africa! Back to EA, I am for empowering farmers to do farming as opposed to this approach that many African governments are doing of giving land to other people like Brazil (Mozambique a third of it ) and S.Arabia (Ethiopia) to do farming for them. Amb Mwapachu says TZ is only utilizing 14% of potential arable land for Agriculture, bringing it to full utilization will see benefits for farmers especially in an EA market that extends to S.Sudan, S.Sudan because I have seen a report that continued conflict in. S.Sudan will impact Tanzania GDP negatively within years. I have seen changes in your in your proposed constitution on land, I don't know if it will help / is enough. I am talking about agriculture because I don't think fresh produce would be affordable in Nairobi if we were not getting vegetables and fruits supplies from Uganda and Tanzania. There still plenty of opportunities in agriculture, we are in a region that has a milk deficit and also a sugar deficit although Uganda has a sugar supplus which they were happy to export to Kenya due to unrestricted markets in EAC.

Wale watu ambao wanashinda wakisema jumuiya itatuathiri vibaya hebu sasa watoe ushahidi wao kwasababu ni miaka kumi na mitano sasa baada ya jumuiya kuanzishwa. Amb Mwapachu anasema ukitumia mwaka wa 2005 kama base year ukiwa mwaka ambao Customs Union iliaanzishwa, inaonyesha kuwa TZ export kwa EAC imeongezeka kuliko Kenya. Hii haimanishi kuna inchi EAC imekiwa first world economy kwa sababu ya EAC wala hakuna inchi itakayokuwa first world economy in a fort night kwa sababu ya EAC lakini ni lazima uanzie mahali kama vile US of America iliponza na inchi 9(13kwa sababu ya katiba yao).

Alafu kuhusu ubepari (capitalism) ni kuwa ni kitu ambacho raia wanapaswa kuchungana nayo. Mimi hupenda kutumia soko huru badala ya ubepari. Ubepari huwa hatari ambapo mabepari wanafika mahali hawataki kulipa ushuru au regulations zozote kama kule Marekani ambapo big corporations that make billions in profit hawalipi ushuru wowote kwa sababu wamewanunua wanasiasa ambao wanapaswa kuwatoza ushuru na kufanya regulations kuwalinda raiya dhidi ya madhara mabaya ya hizi kampuni kubwa. Kukiwa na wananchi ambao wako macho soko huru ni la faida kwao ikiwa watahakikisha kampuni kubwa zinalipa ushuru, zinakuwa regulated na hazitumii tax havens wala kuwa na oligopolies au monopolies.

 

[Kobello]

Tanzania hainufaiki na EAC, Trade balance imekuwa ikipanda tangu mwaka 2005 na kuendelea. Trade balance ilikuwa ikishuka tangu 1998 to 2004.
Mwapachu amezikoroga data.

 

[Kimweri]

Sidhani kama amesema hivyo. Anasema ukilinganisha na nchi nyingine za EAC, sisi tuna arable land kubwa zaidi lakini hatuitumii ipasavyo. We're not utilizing this arable land effectively.

Anasema kama tungeitumia hii ardhi ipasavyo kwa kuzalisha mazao ya chakula tuu, Tanzania inge-catch up. Bahati mbaya hatufanyi hivyo. Tunaongelea Kilimo Kwanza on the paper, but very little is happening on the ground.

Anasema infrastructure ni mbaya na anatoa mifano ya reli zetu na kuwa hata barabara ya kutoka Morogoro hadi Dodoma itabidi ijengwe tena upya miaka miwili ijayo kutokana na kutumiwa na magari mengi ya mzigo kisa reli ya kati tumeitupa.

Tuna source boom ambayo ingeweza kuifanya Tanzania ijiongezee kipato na kuweza kuwekeza kwenye logistics, miundombinu, nk lakini hatu-reinvest mapato yatokanayo na hizi resources.

Haya yote yangeisadia Tanzania kuwa confident in itself na kufungua milango yake kiuchumi. Lakini we are not really opened up economically kwa sababu sisi wenyewe tunajihisi kuwa we are bad in terms of let say in utilizing our arable land na our infrastructure. Tunaona ni bora tubakie hivi hivi tuu.

Kwa maana nyingine anasema kuwa tumeona ni bora zaidi kuendelea kukalia upumbavu wetu kwa kutofanya lolote kutuinia hapa tulipo ili tuweze kufunguka kiuchumi. Kwa sababu ya kuendelea kukalia upumbavu ndo maana tunaongopa kufungunga kwa sababu upumbavu wetu utakuwa exposed.

Anasema "we can only catch up if we improve our infrastructure...Tanzania needs to thinks more positively about the resouces that it is sitting on. That if we were to unleash those resources, that if we can improve our infrastructure, if we can develop confident young population that are not afraid that our jobs will be taken by Kenyans (this is because our education system has not really responded to the demands of the new knowledge economy. That is why our youngsters are so much afraid of Kenyans), ... we need to build better quality education here and out of that... we will be able to move away from this zero mind set ...which even today imposes a lot of fears or perceptions about the advantages of a deeper integration".

Hapo hasemi kuwa tukubali "kuliwa" halafu baadae tutakula. Bali anasema badala ya kuendelea kukalia upumbavu wetu, tuondokane na huo upumbavu kwanza ili tuwe confident na hivyo kuweza kufunguka kwa mtu yoyote bila kuwa na woga wa aina yoyote.

This is pretty much a 1940's Tanzanian expressions of what he thinks not remembering that average age in Tanzania is well below 30 years which implies that wishes of someone born in the 40's are good in a country like Japan with high old age population not Tanzania.

Tanzania infrastructures are just fine, our rail network is underutilized, our roads are superior to most around EA. Our ports and planned ports are better and bigger.our planned airstrips and airports are many and very well distributed, our resources are under utilized, our human resources are under used. Thanks to these folks from the 30's- 40's. It's high time they step down and let run Tanzanians run things. They had their experimentation at EAC and it did not end up well, unfortunately for them they left behind valuable lessons that they shouldn't blame on the younger generations for reading too much into.

I am more for EU type of integration, with limits in movements. Why, well we saw what happened when Paris shootings happened, it took a few hours for suspects to traverse to Syria through turkey, because the borders are porous. Seeing that we have less than secure countries in the EAC, this has to be taken care of.

For some of us living in the old continent, we all know how despised and unpopular this has become, poles and Baltic nations are treated like second grade EU citizens. while Germans and french can roam the UK without much negative sentiments, this means economy precedes integration. NO one likes to see their neighborhood ravaged by immigrants even if they have the rights to live there.especially for economic reasons.So until all countries are equal, it's wise to keep movement on check. harmonize trade and financial regulations to make the region attractive outwards.

At the moment EAC Huge population is not a positive and adding together more mouths to feed does not make a Strong Union if there is literally nothing produced by these 100M people other than consuming day in day out. China would have been far richer if it didn't have 1.3B people, and EAC population is not an advantage now that we are not even in industrial stage.It's a huge burden.

I do not think Tanzanians are foolish as portrayed by the old man, they are just smarter and more careful.when you look at important statistics in their fine details, you would realize that, there is nothing important that separates EA countries. All these country are basically in the same mess, economically.

 

[Kimweri]

Nothing opens up economies like infrastructure be they internal or external. Whether you are linking resources to markets, connecting communities to hospitals and schools, providing electricity to help preserve agricultural produce or communication of vital information to people or between people. Infrastructure results in mobilization of more resources around those infrastructure projects like agriculture and real estate resulting in thriving rural areas, markets, trade centers, towns and cities. The question is how do you fund them and pay for them? The Ambassador in that video says that now if you ask AFDB to fund a road in TZ they will turn your request down but if you tell them that you want connect TZ with a market in EA they will fund it. The case in point here is viability and feasibility of these infrastructure projects. A recent meeting to lobby funds for EAC infrastructure projects had people all over the world falling over themselves in eagerness to fund EAC infrastructure projects that require $100billion in the next 10years. This is big money for an EAC that is about $100billion in GDP, meaning that you can not even contemplate borrowing this funds here in EA without major inflationary effects and starving the private sector money for development thus foreign financiers. Now that we know we can get money is easily available when we are EAC how do we pay for this loans? This is a huge burden for anyone especially individual countries. The burden is more bearable for a more integrated EAC of $100billion (10% per year) than a separate and economically constrained EA. Some few cautions to this infrastructure projects is that just make sure you not building roads and bridges to nowhere. If you building houses build where the jobs are so that you don't end up like this town in China, is it Shanghai where there are 1.5million unoccupied houses because the jobs are in a different town. Others are corruption and shoddy work.

Investors think slightly different than a mere combination of population when investing, things like geopolitical stability and security for their investments is also important.
Fewer investor put their money in DRC even though they have more natural resources and higher population, BUT unstable politics.
So putting together numbers will not be the only thing that attracts investors, these have to be the correct numbers.Infrastructures can be improved without political integration. Current structure + more integrated financial and trade regulations systems is about right.

When it comes to Agriculture, Africa that has 60% of arable land in the world spends $35Billion per year on food imports, you can imagine what can happen to our Balance of Payments by just growing enough food for ourselves even before we start talking about manufacturing. Heck even Thailand exports more food than Africa! Back to EA, I am for empowering farmers to do farming as opposed to this approach that many African governments are doing of giving land to other people like Brazil (Mozambique a third of it ) and S.Arabia (Ethiopia) to do farming for them. Amb Mwapachu says TZ is only utilizing 14% of potential arable land for Agriculture, bringing it to full utilization will see benefits for farmers especially in an EA market that extends to S.Sudan, S.Sudan because I have seen a report that continued conflict in. S.Sudan will impact Tanzania GDP negatively within years. I have seen changes in your in your proposed constitution on land, I don't know if it will help / is enough. I am talking about agriculture because I don't think fresh produce would be affordable in Nairobi if we were not getting vegetables and fruits supplies from Uganda and Tanzania. There still plenty of opportunities in agriculture, we are in a region that has a milk deficit and also a sugar deficit although Uganda has a sugar supplus which they were happy to export to Kenya due to unrestricted markets in EAC.

What these people always conveniently leave behind is that 40-50% of Tanzanian Arable Land is of-limits due to conservation reasons. I am more for small utilized land with higher yield, than running through our entire land reserve just to make our statistics look good. So if you factor in many factors, Tanzania utilized more than 14% of the land it can actually use for agriculture. Anyone telling you otherwise is a politician massaging data.

Wale watu ambao wanashinda wakisema jumuiya itatuathiri vibaya hebu sasa watoe ushahidi wao kwasababu ni miaka kumi na mitano sasa baada ya jumuiya kuanzishwa. Amb Mwapachu anasema ukitumia mwaka wa 2005 kama base year ukiwa mwaka ambao Customs Union iliaanzishwa, inaonyesha kuwa TZ export kwa EAC imeongezeka kuliko Kenya. Hii haimanishi kuna inchi EAC imekiwa first world economy kwa sababu ya EAC wala hakuna inchi itakayokuwa first world economy in a fort night kwa sababu ya EAC lakini ni lazima uanzie mahali kama vile US of America iliponza na inchi 9(13kwa sababu ya katiba yao).

Mafanikio ya TZ sio sababu ya EAC,na sidhani kama tungefeli tungeisingizia EAC pia.kinachotokea Tanzania ni responsibility ya watanzania. Period.

Alafu kuhusu ubepari (capitalism) ni kuwa ni kitu ambacho raia wanapaswa kuchungana nayo. Mimi hupenda kutumia soko huru badala ya ubepari. Ubepari huwa hatari ambapo mabepari wanafika mahali hawataki kulipa ushuru au regulations zozote kama kule Marekani ambapo big corporations that make billions in profit hawalipi ushuru wowote kwa sababu wamewanunua wanasiasa ambao wanapaswa kuwatoza ushuru na kufanya regulations kuwalinda raiya dhidi ya madhara mabaya ya hizi kampuni kubwa. Kukiwa na wananchi ambao wako macho soko huru ni la faida kwao ikiwa watahakikisha kampuni kubwa zinalipa ushuru, zinakuwa regulated na hazitumii tax havens wala kuwa na oligopolies au monopolies.

Ukiyavulia maji nguo huna budi kuyaoga, hivyo kukubali soko huru na kukataa ubepari ni kuchanganya madawa.Ukwepaji wa kodi, lobbying, na maximization of profits ni moja ya nguzo za mabepari.

 

[Kimweri]

Mkuu Jokakuu nianze kwa kusema nakubaliana na Msemakweli kwa 100%. Sasa ili nieleweke vizuri nitoe mifano miwili itakayokuwa msingi wa hoja. moja ni kampuni ya Apple na pili ni Adidas. Apple ni kampuni la kimarekani ambalo kwasasa limechukua usukani ktk elekronic industry, lakini tofauti na watu wanavyofikiri Apple haitengenezi kwa 100% product zake kama simu na computer, kimsingi apple wanatengeneza parts ambazo sio zaidi ya 10% ya simu nzima. Parts zingine zote wameoutsorce kwa makampuni mengine ambayo asilimia kubwa yako nje ya marekani. Sababu ni kuwa production costs ktk marekani ni kubwa hivyo wanaona wakioutsorce kwa makampuni ambayo asilimia kubwa yako china na India.Wanachofanya wao wanainnovate products brands mpya na wakati mwingine wananunua innovations ambazo zinauzwa na makampuni yaliyoamua kuspecialize ktk innovations kama International Business Machines (IBM) halafu wanatoa specifications kwa partners wanaotengeneza parts ili watengeneze vile Apple wanavyotaka. Sasa sababu kwanini makampuni haya yanayozalisha IT parts yanakimbilia china na India ni kwasababu ya production costs kama energy, raw materials na human resorces ziko chini. Kwa hiyo Apple wao wameconcentrate ktk marketing na hapa wameajiri maengineer na marketing managers wengi kutoka India kwasababu wahindi wameonekana wako vizuri ktk masuala ya IT kwa karibu sawa na waisrael na wale wa marekani na ulaya lakini sasa wahindi ni cheap zaidi hivyo wameamua kumaximize profit. Ukiangalia bei ya iphone 5 na versions zingine mpaka latest version ya iphone ktk electronic supermarkets kubwa za ulaya kama Mediamarkt na Saturn inaanzia Euro 600 na kuendelea hadi zaidi ya Euro 1000. lakini production cost ya kila iphone 5 ni Euro 149 tu, hapo partners wote waliotengeza parts kama Kodak, Intel n.k wameshalipwa. Ina maana hela inayobaki inaenda kwa kampuni ya Apple na serikali ya marekani kama kodi (ndio maana juzi tu hapa Obama kasema uchumi wa marekani hautegemei mafuta pekee bali kuna ipads, google, IBM n.k)
Adidas ni kampuni la kijerumani lakini haliangaiki na kuagiza pamba wala kuzalisha nguo Ujerumani bali wanachofanya wanadesign fashion ya nguo halafu wanawapa wazalishaji ambao wengi walikuwa china na India lakini sasa wanakimbilia Bangladesh kwasababu production costs ziko chini zaidi. Gharama ya kutengeneza shati moja Bangladesh ni Euro 7 tu lakini shati hilo likiingia sokoni ulaya na marekani linauzwa kuanzia Euro 20 mpaka hata Euro 100. Jacket linatengenezwa kwa Euro 16 linauzwa ulaya kuanzia Euro 40 mpaka Euro 200. hapo utaona jinsi wanavyojitahidi kuminimize production costs
Sasa hizo value chains za multinational companies zipo nyingi na wao formula ni moja minimize cost maximize profit. Sie waafrika tuna options mbili moja ni kuamua kukataa kabisa free economy na utandawazi na pili ni kuhakikisha tunakuwa sehemu ya hizo value chains. La kwanza haliwezekani maana ndio ulikuwa mtazamo wa viongozi kama akina Nyerere na likashindikana, lililobaki ni kuhakikisha basi tunastruggle kuwa sehemu ya kila value chain na ili tuweze kuwa sehemu yao basi pa kuanzia ni kuhakikisha ktk nchi yetu gharama za uzalishaji ziko chini. Gharama zitapungua kama tutaweza kuimarisha uzalishaji wa umeme wa kutosha, miundombinu ya barabara, reli, bandari, viwanja vya ndege na kuwa na shirika la ndege linaloeleweka. Haya yote tukiyafanya sio tu tutavutia makampuni ya kimataifa bali pia tutachochea ujasiriamali ktk nchi ikiwa ni pamoja na ujasiriamali ktk sekta ya kilimo hivyo na kilimo kitakua kwa kasi. Ethiopia wameonesha mwelekeo mzuri maana wameamua kuadress tatizo la energy na miundombinu pamoja na kuhamasisha sekta ya viwanda. Sie hata shirika la ndege linatusumbua na hii ni kwasababu bado kizazi cha mawazo ya kijamaa kina nguvu; huwezi kumchukua mtu aliyeshindwa kusimamia NIC ukampeleka kufufua ATCL, huo ni utani. Serikali makini ingeamua kufanya PPP (publi private partnership) yaani ingebaki na hisa 50% na 50% wangepewa watu binafsi na management ingekuwa inaendeshwa kwa misingi ya shirika binafsi ili ili kuondoa tatizo la usimamizi,siku hizi mashirika mengi yanayofanya vizuri yanaendeshwa kwa ubia baina ya serikali na sekta binafsi kwasababu ushindani ktk sekta hiyo umekuwa mkubwa kiasi kwamba kwa utaratibu wa serikali inavyoendesha mambo yake haitawezekana kuwa na shirika lenye nguvu. kwasasa ndio maana shirika halina kitu lakini lina wafanyakazi zaidi ya mara mbili ya Precision. Au kama wanaona shida kufufua ATCL wangekubali kununua share za Precision kama walivyoshauriwa lakini wakakataa. Madhara ya kutokuwa na shirika la ndege lenye nguvu ni makubwa; mfano ktk biashara ya maua duniani wazalishaji wakubwa ni Uholanzi, Colombia na Kenya lakini ukiangalia utakuta watanzania wako ktk nafasi ya kuzalisha zaidi na pamoja na kutokuwa na shirika la ndege wanazalisha na kwenda kusafirisha kwa kutumia uwanja wa jomo kenyatta, wakenya walipojisikia tu wakapiga marufuku kutumia uwanja wao, utalii pia unaathirika hili nadhani mmeliona hata juzijuzi tu kenya walichokifanya.
Kuna figure nyingi ambazo mtu yeyote anayeitakia mema Tanzania zitamgusa sana akizifahamu, ila la msingi tu ni kuanzia hapo baada ya kupunguza gharama za uzalishaji na kuvutia makampuni makubwa ndio tuanze kujenga makampuni yetu kama ambavyo china sasa hivi wana makampuni kama Tekno n.k. maana nao walianza kwanza kutengeneza mazingira na wakavutia wawekezaji halafu ndio wakajenga uwezo wa kujenga makampuni yao.
Pia tujue kuwa hakuna Multinational company litakalovutiwa na tax holiday kama serikali inavyofikiri, makampuni hayo yanaangalia faida watakayozalisha ktk mazingira fulani, hawawezi kuwekeza mahali penye gharama kubwa za uzalishaji kisa eti kuna tax holiday. Ingekuwa issue ni tax holiday wangebaki kwenye nchi zao na wakaomba tax holiday na wakapewa. Wanachoangali ni competitive advantage ya nchi husika kulinganisha na nchi zingine. Kampuni nyingi zinazofuata tax holiday sio kampuni za kutusaidia kuimarisha uchumi maana nyingi zinastruggle tu hazina nguvu wala hazina brand names za kueleweka na ndio maana tax holiday ikielekea kuisha wanafunga virago au wanabadili jina na kujifanya wanaondoka hivyo anakuja mwekezaji mwingine ili sasa aanze upya kuinjoy tax holiday. Haiwezekani kampuni kama BMW la ujerumani lenye viwanda 27 vya kutengeneza magari vilivyo ktk nchi mbalimbali duniani ije ibadili jina kwaajili ya kurefusha tax holiday.
Mwisho ni vizuri tukajua kitu kimoja kuwa Kuungana sio guarantee ya kuwa na nguvu ya kimaendeleo. Mpaka sasa Business Models zinaonesha kuwa kuwa na soko kubwa ni factor moja wapo ya kuendelea kiuchumi, lakini pia hakuna nchi iliyoendelea kwasababu tu imeungana. US imeendelea kutokana na factor nyingi na muungano uliwezekana kwasababu wakati ule masuala ya sovereignity yalikuwa bado hivyo ilikuwa rahisi hata kulazimisha muungano. Kwa dunia ya sasa ni vizuri tunapointegrate tusiwe na mawazo ya kusacrifice nchi tukitarajia eti kuna siku tutakuwa shirikisho hicho kitu sio rahisi. Tunatakiwa tuconcetrate kwenye kuongeza efficiency ktk uzalishaji na human resorces hayo mengine ni siasa maana kama issue ni wingi wa resorce na wingi wa watu basi DRC na Nigeria zisingekuwa hapo zilipo. na pia tujue kitu kimoja wakati wowote unapoongoza nchi ndogo na management inakuwa rahisi kuliko nchi kubwa, sasa kama tumeshindwa kuendeleza nchi moja moja kiuchumi itawezekana vipi watu wale wale wakaweza kuongoza kwa mafanikio shirikisho la nchi tano? Hiyo ni sawa na mtu kushindwa kufanya biashara ya mtaji wa milion moja halafu akawa anaomba milion 100 akiahidi ataweza kuendesha hiyo biashara yenye mtaji mkubwa.

Nakubaliana na wewe asilimia nyingi sana. Actually mimi ni advocate wa hii concept ya competitive advantage. Dunia ya sasa haijalishi uchumi wako au siasa zako ziko vipi, as long as you hav esomething to offer, people will come. SO far Tanzania hatujatengeneza competitive advantage zaidi ya zile tulizozikuta.

Ukitazama EAC ni yale yale, hakuna competititve advantage yoyote inayotokana na muungano, zaidi ya Museveni kupata nafasi ya kuitwa raisi wa EAC, na ndugu zetu wa Kenya kusolve matatizo yao ya ardhi. Huu si muungano mzuri. Muungano mzuri utakuja wakati tunaungana tukiwa on equal footing na tuna lengo linalofanana. Kinyume na hapo ni utapeli.

watu wa TIC etc, wanatakiwa kufikiria radically, sio kuwaza kama hawa kina mwapachu from 1930 kweusi. Dunia imebadilika, mabilionea wako tayari ku-renounce US citizenship just to gain advantages, which mean royalty lies with what you have to offer.

Kuna haja ya kumega sehemu kama mafia au mtwara na kuifanya Economic zone where multinationals could set up their financial operations with competitiveness not seen anywhere in Africa, we have to learn how Mauritius was able to achieve that.

Hakuna mtu atakayeleta kiwanda hata kama mko milioni elfu moja kama hakuna la maana mnachofanya. Atazalisha thailand au bangladesh na atafurahia vya kutosha kuwageuza wateja wake wa uhakika. What do you do to make them produce for those hundreds of million in the same country?Make them offers only certified madmen would refuse.And make that offer fast.