Madafu Yakatangebe Dola, ni ya kudumu au?


U

Ufunuo wa Yohana

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Ufunuo wa Yohana

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Jamani angalieni jinsi shilingi inavyopata nguvu haraka zidi ya foreign curency, sijui ndiyo itadumu au ni ya muda tu!!

http://www.moneylinktz.com/rates.htm

Au ndiyo pesa za misaada zimeanza kushuka kutoka ughaibuni
tutaishi kwa misaada mpaka lini?

Tahadhari:
ikija kushuti sasa mpaka 1500 Tsh mtaniambia kwa dola
 
Dua

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Usijali shillingi kupata nguvu hivi sasa, dollar ya marekani iko kwenye mgogoro mkubwa inabadilishwa kwa mfano £1.00 = $ 2.00 hivi sasa. Compare na mwanzo wa mwaka £1.00 = $ 1.45 (kama sikosei) kwa hiyo ukiangalia kwa haraka haraka tu wamepoteza almost 50% ya value yake mwanzoni mwa mwaka. Angalia vile vile Euro imekuwa very strong against the USD.

Sifikirii BOT wana-mechanism nzuri ya kulinganisha thamani ya shillingi.

Soma hapa
 
Insurgent

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Usijali shillingi kupata nguvu hivi sasa, dollar ya marekani iko kwenye mgogoro mkubwa inabadilishwa kwa mfano £1.00 = $ 2.00 hivi sasa. Compare na mwanzo wa mwaka £1.00 = $ 1.45 (kama sikosei) kwa hiyo ukiangalia kwa haraka haraka tu wamepoteza almost 50% ya value yake mwanzoni mwa mwaka. Angalia vile vile Euro imekuwa very strong against the USD.

Sifikirii BOT wana-mechanism nzuri ya kulinganisha thamani ya shillingi.

Soma hapa
Sio kweli dollar imepoteza 50% ya value yake kutokea mwanzo wa mwaka huu.
Value ya exchange ilikuwa £1.00 = US$ 1.9581 (January 2007) na sasa ni £1.00 = US$ 2.033
Kwa hiyo dollar imepoteza 3.8% ya value yake.(JAN TO NOW)

Sasa tukija kwa TShs,
Mwanzoni mwa mwaka huu 1US$ = 1261.73TShs
Sasa hivi 1US$ = 1146.97TShs
Kwa hiyo shilingi imegain kwa 9.1%(JAN TO NOW)

Ukiangalia haraka haraka utaona shilingi imegain 3.8% kutokana na dollar kudepreciate lakini imegain 5.3% more not related to dollar depreciation. Tuvute Subra...
 
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mapinno

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Kupanda thamani kwa Tshs ni suala la muda tu na sio akisi ya hali halisi. endapo taasisi ya fedha ya nchi itaacha kuwa ya kisiasa na ikawa ya kitaaluma hapo tutaweza kuwa na imani na watakayoyasema kwa uchache.
__________________
Kwa nini kuku alivuka barabara?
 
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Rwabugiri

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Kupanda thamani kwa Tshs ni suala la muda tu na sio akisi ya hali halisi. endapo taasisi ya fedha ya nchi itaacha kuwa ya kisiasa na ikawa ya kitaaluma hapo tutaweza kuwa na imani na watakayoyasema kwa uchache.
__________________
Kwa nini kuku alivuka barabara?
Mapinno ,
Nakubaliana nawewe, kupanda kwa shilingi sasa hivi kumeingiliwa na mkono wa siasa kupitia BOT ili kupunguza kelele za inflation, mpango huu hauwezi kuwa wa muda mrefu kwani uwezo huo BOT haina, kwahiyo mambo yatarudi kule kule very soon!
 
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Strong shilling slows down Tanzania export market.

STAFF WRITER The EastAfrican said:

The Bank of Tanzania is buying too much foreign exchange in the market and consequently driving up interest rates in the economy. And, if the trend continues the Tanzania shilling will continue appreciating against other hard currencies thereby undermining the country’s export competitiveness.

These are the conclusion of a new report by the Economic Division of banking conglomerate Standard Chartered Bank.
Lately, the money market in Tanzania has been unusually tight, a sign that there isn’t enough money circulating in the market.
The tell-tale signs are the manner in which both interest rates and the Tanzania shilling has been behaving. The overnight lending rate — which is the rate at which banks with flush cash lend out to those in a deficit position at the end of a day’s trading — has spiked to a high of 25 per cent while the dollar rate has plunged from levels of 1,235/45 at the end of September, to levels of 1,130/40 this week.

Indeed, the money market in Tanzania is going through an unprecedented volatility. Standard Chartered Bank has advanced two reasons for the tightness of the money market.

First, that part of it stems from the traditional end-quarter tightening of Tanzania shilling liquidity, as corporates make tax payments to the fiscal authorities. Second, that the situation has been made worse by the announcement by the Bank of Tanzania that it would continue to sterilise domestic liquidity by selling foreign exchange.

Despite making significant progress with domestic revenue collection in recent years, Tanzania remains dependent on donors for the financing of its Budget. This year, development partners will finance around 42 per cent of the Budget. As a result, Tanzania sees sizeable inflows, which are typically converted to local currency disbursed to various ministries, and spent. The report by Standard Chartered suggests that these flows need to be sterilised in order to keep domestic money supply growth under control.

Traditionally, there have been two ways of doing this. First, issuance of T-bills and, second, foreign exchange sales.
However, Tanzania appears to have expressed a preference for foreign exchange sales. With interest rates already at a high level, Finance Minister Zakia Meghji pledged in this year’s Budget speech not to “compromise” macroeconomic stability by issuing debt securities to finance the Budget.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest consultation with Tanzania also gave its support to “increased reliance on foreign exchange sales to contain liquidity,” noting that this would help to ease pressure on T-bill yields, although stressing that the “appropriate balance” in the use of liquidity management instruments will still need to be found. Since last year’s drought, inflation has remained above the Bank of Tanzania’s targeted 5 per cent level, and the effort to mop up liquidity has intensified. As a means of liquidity control, the IMF has urged the transfer of government deposits from commercial banks to the Central bank — which has added to the market tightness.

Could Tanzania do what Uganda did recently to address the volatility in the market? When the Uganda shilling was appreciating unpredictably in June of this year, the authorities in the more-liberalised country cancelled two consecutive T-bill auctions over the course of a month. The resulting injection of liquidity into the economy was sufficient to reverse the sharp appreciation of the Uganda shilling.

But can Tanzania temporarily abandon its sterilisation effort until more normal liquidity conditions are restored?
The conclusion of the report is that this is unlikely to happen in Tanzania because of the shallowness of its markets and less experience with managing such situations.
“Until decisive action is taken by the BoT, and if it continues to engage in much more dollar buying than we have seen in the recent past, further strengthening of the Tanzania shilling is likely”, says the report.
The other day they said we don't export enough, today we aren't competetive because of the strong shilling........ what next?

BTW who wants a weaker shilling? I wonder.
 
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Ufunuo wa Yohana

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Ufunuo wa Yohana

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Wasiwasi ni pale ambapo ile 42% itakapokuwa tayari imeishakubadilishwa ktk Tshs, shillingi itashuka tena sana dhidi ya fedha za kigeni. By February inaweza kuwa dola 1=1500
 
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Strong shilling slows down Tanzania export market.



The other day they said we don't export enough, today we aren't competetive because of the strong shilling........ what next?

BTW who wants a weaker shilling? I wonder.
Hawa watu ni businessmen(commercial Banks) na wangain alot of money pale fedha inaposhuka thamani, na kwa sababu wao wanunua Forex T Bills when the interst goes up wao wanaloose. Ndio maana wanadiscourage approach serikali iliyotumia.

However, that is always temporary situation na lazima ziwe supported na other fiscal and monetary policies.

Other reasons ambazo hazijasemwa ni kwamba:
1. Most of traditional crops zinauzwa kipindi hiki so more Forex inflow

2. July to Sept ndio kipindi kina wageni wengi wanaokuja kama tourist.

3. Inasemakana pia kuna effect ya tangazo la serikali siku za hivi karibuni kwamba ni kosa la (sijui ni jinai a ua la)kwa wafanya biashara kumcharge mteja in term of FOREX. thus hela ambazo zilikua kwa watu zimerudi kwenye financial institutions (including Bureaul de Change)
n. k
 
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Kinachofanyika bongo,ukiona dola imeshuka tena mara nyingi si zaidi ya wiki inapanda tena,huwa bot wanauza dola kwenye inter-banking, na iliufanywa hilikupunguza kasi ya kupanda kwa bei ya dola katika soko la ndani,tanzania inapata kiasi kidogo sana cha dola kutoka nje kwa njia ya watalii.
ila watanzania wanapeleka nje dola nyingi sana kwa ajili ya kununulia bidhaa mbalimbali kwa ajili ya matumizi ya ndani.fanya utafiti mdogo tu pale kariakoo bidhaa ktk maduka yote pale ni imported je wanapatawapi pesa ya kigeni kwa ajili ya kununulia hizo bidhaa ?pia jaribu kuangalia mara nyingi dola inapanda kwa kasi mwishoni mwa wiki kwa sababu wafanyabiashara wengi huwa wanasafiri kwenda nje ya nchi, na mieze mitatu kabla ya sikukuu za idi na x mas hiki ni kipindi cha kuagiza mali kwa ajili ya sikukuu na muda huu pia dola upanda sana.januari pia dola hupanda pia kwa sababu wafanyabiashara wengi wanakuwa na pesa ya madafu mikononi lakini mwezi wa pili dola inashuka kwa kutumia hivyo vigezo.
 
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..globally across the board dollar is weakening,from cable,euro zote ziko all time high against the dollar...shillings is not exceptional lazima iwe strong tuu na it nothing to do with our economy..lakini sometimes weak shillings is not bad na ina reflect kukua kwa uchumi lakini factor out inflation
 
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Meghji: Shilingi inazidi kupata nguvu




na Ratifa Baranyikwa



WAZIRI wa Fedha, Zakhia Meghji amesema kuwa shilingi ya Tanzania ina nguvu na itakuwa na nguvu zaidi endapo wazalishaji watazalisha kwa kutumia sarafu hiyo mwenyeji.
Meghji aliyasema hayo juzi wakati akifungua tawi jipya la Benki ya Standard Chartered lililoko eneo la Kariakoo katika Mtaa wa Narung’ombe, Jijini Dar es Salaam.

“Shilingi yetu sasa ipo strong (ina nguvu) kutokana na kukua kwa uchumi wetu… zalisheni kwa kutumia shilingi, hela yetu itakuwa na nguvu, msitumie shilingi kwa kuingiza bidhaa tu, tumieni pia kwa kuzalisha ili iendelee kupata thamani,” alisema.

Aidha, alisema kuwa kuongezeka kwa mabenki nchini kunaonyesha ishara ya kukua kwa uchumi na aliipongeza benki hiyo ambayo ni mahususi kwa kuendeleza wafanyabiashara wadogo na wa kati na kusema kuwa mabenki mengi nchini yamekuwa yakihudumia wafanyabiashara wakubwa.

Alisema kuna haja ya kuongeza benki za aina hiyo ili kuwapa hamasa wafanyabiashara wadogo ambao ni wengi nchini.

Ofisa Mkuu Mtendaji wa benki hiyo wa Afrika, Mike Hart alisema kuwa tawi hilo ni la saba kufunguliwa hapa nchini. Alisema benki hiyo imejidhatiti katika kukuza uchumi kupitia sekta ya wafanyabiashara wadogo na wa kati (SME), ambao wanachangia asilimia 30 ya ukuaji wa pato la taifa (GDP).
Hili nalo linahitaji mjadala.
Imekuwaje shilingi ikapanda thamani? Je ni kutokana na mkwara wa waziri Meghji kuwa watu waache kutumia dola hata katika manunuzi ya ndani ya nchi? Ma kuna sababu nyingine!
 
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...haha haha hahah huyu mama asinifanye nicheke hapa,naona anatake advantage ya dollar crisis kuchukua sifa ambazo hazipo,ukweli ni kwamba strong shillings kwa sasa has nothing to do na internal factor za Tanzania...kwa ufupi across the board dollar is weak,kama kweli na anachosema angalia pound ilivyo gain kwa shillings,anyway sometimes strong shillings sio nzuri kwa economy yetu na wala sio factor ya kukua kwa uchumi...important ni inflation iwe chini mengine yote mazuri yata fall in!
 
Idimi

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...haha haha hahah huyu mama asinifanye nicheke hapa,naona anatake advantage ya dollar crisis kuchukua sifa ambazo hazipo,ukweli ni kwamba strong shillings kwa sasa has nothing to do na internal factor za Tanzania...kwa ufupi across the board dollar is weak,kama kweli na anachosema angalia pound ilivyo gain kwa shillings,anyway sometimes strong shillings sio nzuri kwa economy yetu na wala sio factor ya kukua kwa uchumi...important ni inflation iwe chini mengine yote mazuri yata fall in!
Tatizo la viongozi wetu ni kwamba huwa tarifa technical kama hizo ulizosema hapo huwa wanazifanya ni siasa. Kila kitu siasa!
 
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Huyu mama, mimi simwamini kabisaa!!!!!!!!!!! Nadhani wako wengi wanaoweza ongoza wizara nyeti kama ile, wanaompita huyo mama uwezo kwa mbaaali sana...
 
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Hili nalo linahitaji mjadala.
Imekuwaje shilingi ikapanda thamani? Je ni kutokana na mkwara wa waziri Meghji kuwa watu waache kutumia dola hata katika manunuzi ya ndani ya nchi? Ma kuna sababu nyingine!

Katika kipindi cha miaka mitano thamani ya dollar ya kimarekani imeshuka sana. Kwa mfano, si muda mrefu US 1 = 1.5 Canadian Dollar, US 1 = 1 Euro, 1 UK Pound = US 1.5.

Sasa hivi, US 1 = 1 Canadian Dollar, US 1 = 1.5 Euro, 1 UK Pound = US 1.8 au 2.

Kwa kuwa dollar inatumika katika biashara nyingi za kimataifa, kuna uwezekano mkubwa kuwa kukuwa kwa thamani ya shilling kunatokana na kupungua kwa thamani ya dollar ya kimarekani.

Kwa upande wangu sioni umuhimu mkubwa wa kukua kwa thamani ya shillingi. Naona umuhimu ni kuwa na pesa yenye stability ya thamani.
 
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Tatizo la viongozi wetu ni kwamba huwa tarifa technical kama hizo ulizosema hapo huwa wanazifanya ni siasa. Kila kitu siasa!
Nafikiri thread za dollar VS shilling zingekuwa merged AU watu wangekuwa wanasoma kilichoandikwa kabla kungekuwa hakuna haja ya kuleta Siasa katika mijadala hii.

Sio kweli dollar imepoteza 50% ya value yake kutokea mwanzo wa mwaka huu.
Value ya exchange ilikuwa £1.00 = US$ 1.9581 (January 2007) na sasa ni £1.00 = US$ 2.033
Kwa hiyo dollar imepoteza 3.8% ya value yake.(JAN TO NOW)

Sasa tukija kwa TShs,
Mwanzoni mwa mwaka huu 1US$ = 1261.73TShs
Sasa hivi 1US$ = 1146.97TShs
Kwa hiyo shilingi imegain kwa 9.1%(JAN TO NOW)

Ukiangalia haraka haraka utaona shilingi imegain 3.8% kutokana na dollar kudepreciate lakini imegain 5.3% more not related to dollar depreciation. Tuvute Subra...
Sio kweli TShs imegain ONLY sababu dollar imeshuka thamani.
Fanyeni Utafiti kabla ya kupost.
 
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Dar exports up, as construction boom drives Zanzibar economy
WILFRED EDWIN Special Correspondent said:

Tanzania exported goods and services worth $14.9 million in August, compared with exports valued $5.7 million recorded in June, ending months of low performance. According to the latest Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, the surge in trade is attributed to a sharp rise in export volumes of cash crops such as coffee, cotton, sisal and tea.

The BoT report says that “impressive performance was recorded in cotton as the volume exported increased from 1,514 tonnes in July 2007 to 9,821 tonnes in August.” Although the increase in volumes was consistent with the onset of the exports season for most of the traditional exports, the prices of most of the commodities on the world market improved during the season under review.

But the report warns that on annual basis, export performance was rated as dismal since total earnings were only $277.5 million in contrast to $351.8 million recorded in the previous year. The report states that the depressed annual export performance was largely caused by a significant drop in export volumes of cotton and cashewnuts during the period under review. Bad weather was to blame for the declining cotton exports to 32,587 tonnes compared with 108,638 tonnes that were exported in the previous year. “Similarly, the export volume of cashewnuts declined by 32.4 per cent to 57,000 tonnes following price disagreement between buyers and producers,” says the report.
The cashewnut Board of Tanzania had since, the beginning of buying season in October 2006, set the $0.6 per kilo as the official buying price, but the buyers were reluctant to buy the crop at the price.

Instead, they offered $0.4 per kilogramme, causing dispute in the market. The report says non-traditional exports decreased marginally to $138.6 million from the $143 million ranked in the previous month. The poor performance was attributed to poor show by the country’s manufacturing sector, particularly the sugar exports caused by the country’s exhaustion of its export quota to the European Union market.

On an annual basis, non-traditional exports recorded an increase of 14.9 per cent to $1,603.1 million as most sub-categories of non-traditional exports recorded growth. Gold exports, for example, increased to $802.8 million from $714.6 million in the previous year largely due to the increase in prices in the world market as export volumes remained almost unchanged. Manufactured exports increased by 35.7 per cent to $254.9 million supported by the increased demands from neighbouring landlocked countries, according to the BoT report. In Zanzibar, the report notes that the construction and transport sectors were the major economic drivers in the period under review. Importation of capital goods for the raising domestic demand in the construction industry pushed importation of capital goods on the isles.

Imports of goods to Zanzibar in the month of August increased to $6.8 million, from $5.6 million in the previous month, mainly due to expanding construction and transportation projects.
Hapo juu walisema hatuwezi ku-export kwa sababu ya kuwa na strong shilling sasa week moja wanasema tumeuza zaidi - Makubwa haya wivu tu unawasumbua. Lets put our house in order.
 
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Dar exports up, as construction boom drives Zanzibar economy


Hapo juu walisema hatuwezi ku-export kwa sababu ya kuwa na strong shilling sasa week moja wanasema tumeuza zaidi - Makubwa haya wivu tu unawasumbua. Lets put our house in order.
Mkuu, ni wapi hapo walisema kwamba hatuwezi ku-export kwa sababu ya shiling kuwa strong? Naona umewahukumu bila kosa lolote, au haujasoma hizo postings kwa umakini.

Post ya kwanza walisema kwamba endapo shilingi itaendelea ku-appreciate ita undermine competitiveness. Hii haina maana kwamba fedha inapo appreciate export za nchi hiyo haziwezi kuongezeka. Kumbuka kwamba kuuzika kwa bidhaa zetu sio function ya bei[thamani ya shiling]tu, bali ni function ya mambo mengi ikiwamo ubora wa bidhaa, taste za wanununuzi,upatikanaji au ukosefu wa bidhaa za substitute,mahitaji ya wanunuzi wa bidhaa zetu, nk. Hivyo basi kama shilingi yetu imepanda dhidi ya fedha nyingine, bado tunaweza kuuza zaidi na zaidi, endapo mambo mengine yanaendelea kuchochea mahitaji ya bidhaa zetu kwa wanunuzi. Naona mkuu hapa unahukumu innocents; hakuna chembe la kosa lililofanyika.
 
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MgonjwaUkimwi

last week

Strong shilling slows down Tanzania export market.

.....................And, if the trend continues the Tanzania shilling will continue appreciating against other hard currencies thereby undermining the country's export competitiveness. ................

As a means of liquidity control, the IMF has urged the transfer of government deposits from commercial banks to the Central bank - which has added to the market tightness.
Naona nimewahukumu vizuri kabisa kwani unapokuwa na strong currency bidhaa zako zinakuwa hazinunuliwi kwa wingi na wanunuzi, wengi wanakimbilia kwenye soko nafuu kwa kujipatia huduma. (Kama bidhaa hizo zipo katika standard ambayo mnunuzi anaitaka). Kwa ukweli kama mahindi yanapatikana Tanzania na SA na bei yetu ikawa kubwa kupita kiasi sidhani Kenya ama nchi nyingine yoyote itanunua mahindi yetu, yatadoda tu. Swala la usafiri na competitiveness linakuja kama kuna substitute ya bidhaa kama hakuna unakuwa unabembeleza source yako. Nafikiri haya ni machozi ya mamba.

Uko right kutokana na kusema kwamba kuna vitu vingi vinachangia kutokuuza bidhaa zako, tatizo letu kubwa Tanzania limekuwa la ubora wa packing kwenye standard inayokubalika kimataifa (ingawaje kuna improvement). Ukweli wa mambo kuna watu wachache ambao wanafaidi sana kwa shilligi yetu kuwa weak na ndio hawa wanapiga kelele kutaka kuona kwamba status quo inaendelea ili waendelee kufaidi, inabidi tuwe macho na hilo ili tuweze kuwasaidia wazalishaji na WTZ wote kwa ujumla.

BTW mbona siku hizi umepotea sana tunahitaji nondo zako mkuu.
 
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Mkuu Dua, nipo nipo. Si unajuwa tena kazi na dawa! Nikiwa na muda wakucheza naingia JF, nisipokuwa nao itabidi tu nipigike ili kuhakikisha naongeza mahudhurio ya maliwatoni.

Tukirejea kwenye kukata issue, bado mkuu naona umehukumu pasipo kosa. Upo uwezekano mkubwa kwamba shilingi ika appreciate na bado export zikaongezeka katika kipindi fulani. Yapo mengi yanayosababisha hili kutokea na mambo haya nilishayaeleza hapo awali. Ila la muhimu ambalo sikuliongelea awali ni time-lag; ambapo wanunuzi wa bidhaa zetu ambazo tayari walishafanya committment za kununua bidhaa watahitaji muda ili wabadiri purchase pattens zao ili ku-reflect thamani mpya ya shilingi.

Mfano dola ya Canada sasa imeipita ya US, bado bei za vitu Canada zipo pale pale, kwa sababu itachukuwa muda kua-djust. Kadhalika kupanda kwa shilingi theoretically "kunategemewa" kupunguza export volume, lakini hii itachukuwa muda. Time-lag wakati mwingine inasababishwa na imani za wanunuzi, kama wanaona kupanda kwa shilingi ni mvua za rasha-rasha tu, wala hawatapunguza manunuzi ya bidhaa zetu. Kadhalika wakiona kwamba shilingi itaendelea kupanda kwa kipindi kirefu wataongeza manunuzi yao leo ili ku-hedge hasara wanazoweza kupata mbeleni. Hivyo ni very possible kwamba shilingi inaweza kupaa na bado exports zetu zikaongezeka in short-run, kama posting zilivyosema.
 

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