Hili limeshakuwa tatizo: Dola sasa ni zaidi ya TZS 2,350/= Kikwete, Ndulu, Wizara wapo kimya!

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Jun 10, 2014
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The shilling continues to lose ground against the USD! Depreciation of 7 percent since the start of the year! Where are we heading? Do we have any reserves? Or its depeleted or disappeared too with escrow money? Uganda and kenya have intervened to crub volatility. Why not Bank of Tanzania?

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Courtesy: CRDB Bank

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Morning All, Angalieni USD inavyopaa

Our rates for today 24 April 2015:

CurrencyBuySell
USD1945 1970
USD Sml 1935 1965
USD 1,215001965
EUR20402120
GBP 2790 2950
ZAR150 165
KES19.6 20.3
UGX0.5 0.65


THE shilling continued to weaken against the US dollar on Monday, maintaining its downward trajectory against major currencies.

Financial analysts said the struggling of the local currency was due to an increased demand for the US dollars from the energy sector and big oil importers.

It is anticipated that the shilling will continue to suffer against the dollar unless there is sufficient inflow of the greenback to withstand its growing demand.

According to Standard Chartered Bank said the shilling continued to suffer losses against the dollar last week as dollar demand exceeded inflows by far.

"We anticipate the local currency to again suffer the same fate this week unless the market sees significant dollar inflows sufficient to cover current demand," the bank said in its daily market outlook report.

At midday on Monday NMB quoted the shilling at 1715/1842 against the dollar. It traded on the same level with the dollar on Saturday.

CRDB bank said in its daily financial market highlights that the shilling depreciated against the greenback during early trading hours of yesterday from 1772/1782 to 1780/1790.

Meanwhile, the Kenyan shilling was unchanged on Monday as firms prepared to pay their monthly taxes, curbing demand for foreign exchange. At 0655 GMT, commercial banks posted the shilling at 91.45/55 per dollar, unchanged from Friday's close. "This is explained by taxes going out tomorrow.

We might see demand (for dollars) come off until the tax payments go through," said a trader with a commercial bank. The trader added demand could pick up afterwards as importers buy dollars towards the end of the month to meet their obligations.

The shilling is down 1.22 per cent this year mainly due to a broadly firmer dollar. Authorities asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a precautionary loan of about $750 million last week to help them deal with any shocks in the future.

In Kampala, the Uganda Shilling depreciated touching a record low of 2,895/2,905 despite the Central Bank's intervention in an effort to stem the trend.

Bank of Uganda director for research Adam Mugume said: "A total of $80 million (about Shs 232 billion) was injected into the market in the first two weeks of January."

He, however, added: "The intervention was basically to control the level volatility and not to control the depreciation.? Analysts, however, say robust demand from telecommunications, manufacturing, oil and energy firms, coupled with offshore names exiting local assets, has far outstripped supply, leading the market prices to move up.

Standard Chartered Bank head of financial market James Mutuku said: "The Shilling has so far dropped just about 4 per cent in 2015 and looks set to remain weak as the year progresses."

"The Central Bank announced last week their interest to ensure orderly price movements in the market and we expect them to take measures to achieve that," Mr Mutuku added.

Experts predict the US dollar-Uganda shilling to trade in the 2870-2915 range in the coming week with the possibility of appreciating in the medium term.

Looking at other currencies, the Kenya shilling registered a slight depreciation closing 91.50/60 from the previous close of 91.15/25 last week.

At the monetary policy committee meeting, the Central Bank Rate was held at 8.50 per cent, with the Banks Reference Rate KEBRR (for pricing commercial loans) set at 8.54 per cent from 9.13 per cent. With Uganda's economy mainly dependent on imports, the Shilling depreciation means traders are now spending more to buy the dollars thus making the cost of doing business high.

However, experts believe dropping international oil prices will see Uganda's oil import bill declining. "Uganda spends on average $100-125 million (about Shs365 billion) per month on oil related imports; this could decline by 50 per cent in the coming months, which would give boost to trade balance," Dr Mugume observed.

Furthermore, since oil is an input in several economic activities such as transportation, this would result in lowering of input costs to the production process.

On the negative side, however, Uganda is a prospecting producer of oil and therefore this could derail the investment prospects in the oil sector.

Source:dailynews





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Waziri Kivuli wa Fedha, James Mbatia

29th April 2015

Waziri Kivuli wa Fedha, James Mbatia (pichani), ameitaka serikali na Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT), kuchukua hatua haraka na madhubuti kunusuru kuporomoka kwa thamani ya Shilingi ya Tanzania dhidi ya Dola ya Marekani ambayo imeporomoka kwa asilimia 21.

Akizungumza na waandishi wa habari jijini Dar es Salaam jana, Mbatia alisema sababu zilizochangia kuporomoka kwa Shilingi ni Bajeti tegemezi kwa wafadhili, mauzo kidogo kutoka ndani kwenda nje ya nchi, manunuzi makubwa kutoka nje kuja ndani na siasa zisizokuwa na hofu ya Mungu.

"Ndani ya mwezi mmoja Shilingi yetu imeporomoka kwa zaidi ya asilimia 20 hadi 21 kutoka Sh. 1,650 kwa Dola moja ya Kimarekani hadi Sh. 2,010 kwa takwimu za juzi, poromoko hili ni tishio kwa uchumi. Sayansi anuai inatuonyesha kwamba nguvu ya mporomoko wa kiasi hiki inaweza kutikisa vibaya mfumo wa uchumi kama hatua za kifedha hazitachukuliwa haraka iwezekanavyo," alisema.

Mbatia alisema bajeti ya Taifa kwa kiasi kikubwa, zaidi ya asilimia 30 inategemea fedha za wafadhili wa miradi mbalimbali ambao wanapoamua kushikilia fedha zao, poromoko la Shilingi hutokea na inapokuwa kinyume wanashikilia fedha yao.

Alisema ni lazima BoT itoe matumaini kwa Watanzania kuhusu hali ya uchumi kabla hali haijawa mbaya zaidi.

"Uchumi ni kushirikiana katika kutumia rasilimali za dunia ili kuishi katika hali ya utu tuliokirimiwa na Mungu. Tunao wajibu wa kushiriki kikamilifu katika uchumi wa dunia kwa sababu rasilimali tulizonazo juu ya ardhi na ndani ya ardhi, ushirikiano wa kibiashara ni sehemu ya maisha," alieleza Mbatia ambaye pia ni Mbunge wa kuteuliwa na Mwenyekiti wa Taifa wa NCCR-Mageuzi.

Alisema ni lazima Tanzania ijitambulishe kwa Shilingi yake kwa kuhakikisha inalindwa isiporomoke dhidi ya Dola ya Marekani.

Mbatia alisema uwezo wa kuongeza mapato ya Tanzania kutoka mauzo ya nje ni mkubwa kwa kupitia sekta za uvuvi, utalii na usafirishaji wa anga na kwamba zinaweza kutumika ili kuongeza fedha kutoka nje na kukabili poromoko hilo.

"Kanuni kuu ya maisha ni mpende jirani yako kama unavyojipenda mwenyewe, naomba tujiulize kwanini tunatumia Dola katika shughuli zetu za kibiashara ndani ya nchi? Hii inaitwa ‘dollarization', athari zake ni kubwa kwa uchumi na wananchi. Ni lazima tuwe na sheria ya kuzuia ‘dollarization', na huu ndiyo muda mwafaka kwa usalama wa nchi yetu," alisema.

Alisema kwa hali ilivyo nchini kwa sasa, Mtanzania anayepokea Sh. milioni moja, thamani yake ni Sh. 800,000, huku posho za viongozi wanaposafiri nje ya nchi kwa kutumia ndege kwa daraja la kwanza na pili kwa siku ni Dola 504 ambayo awali ingekuwa Sh. 600,000, lakini kwa sasa ni milioni moja kwa siku.

Alisema atapeleka hoja bungeni ya kuitaka serikali kuchukua hatua ikiwamo kuacha kuagiza samani na bidhaa nyingine ambazo zinaweza kupatikana nchini kutoka nje ya nchi.

Mbatia alisema hali inazidi kuwa mbaya nchini pale serikali inapokwenda kukopa kwenye taasisi binafsi za fedha na watu binafsi pia kufanya hivyo na kuzifanya taasisi hizo kuitunishia misuli serikali.

"Tuendako na hali ikiachwa kuwa hivi, nchi inaweza isitawalike, wafanyabiashara wakubwa wanaacha kuwekeza nchini na kuzalisha bidhaa za kuuza nje, bali wananunua nje na kuuza ndani kwa wingi," alisema.

WAZIRI WA FEDHA
NIPASHE ilipomtafuta Waziri wa Fedha, Saada Salum Mkuya, kujibu kauli za Mbatia, alisema kiasi cha Dola kilichopo kwenye mzunguko siyo cha kudhuru uchumi na kwamba athari zinazojitokeza kwa Shilingi haiko Tanzania pekee bali imezikumba nchi nyingi ikiwamo Uganda na nyingine zinazotumia Euro na paundi.

Alisema kuporomoka kwa Shilingi kunasababishwa na kuimarika kwa uchumi wa Marekani na kudorora kwa biashara ya utalii ambayo ndiyo inayoingiza fedha nyingi za kigeni.

Mkuya alitaja sababu nyingine kuwa ni tishio la ugaidi na kuagiza bidhaa zaidi kutoka nje kuliko kuuza nje na wafanyabiashara wakubwa kuamini kuwa na Dola nyingi ndiyo faida kubwa.

"Kuonekana Dola ni nyingi sokoni na kupanda bei kunasababishwa pia na watu wengi wakiwamo wafanyabiashara wakubwa wanakwenda kwenye benki moja wakihitaji Dola nyingi, akikosa ataenda benki mbili hadi tatu, hivyo kuonyesha kuwa mahitaji ya Dola ni makubwa," alisema na kuongeza:

"Tunachofanya kwa sasa kila siku kama kuna mwenye haja ya Dola anaipata kama ilivyo ili asionyeshe kuwa kuna mahitaji makubwa ya Dola."

Gavana wa BoT, Prof. Benno Ndulu, alipotafutwa, simu yake ya kiganjani iliita bila kupokelewa.


CHANZO: NIPASHE
 

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The shilling continues to lose ground against the USD! Depreciation of 7 percent sinve the start of the year! Where are we heading? Do we have any reserves? Or its depeleted or disappeared too with escrow money? Uganda and kenya have intervened to crub volatility. Why not Bank of Tanzania?
If our President cannot defend our currency who will. Yeye anaiita hela ya madafu unategemea nini.
 
The shilling continues to lose ground against the USD! Depreciation of 7 percent sinve the start of the year! Where are we heading? Do we have any reserves? Or its depeleted or disappeared too with escrow money? Uganda and kenya have intervened to crub volatility. Why not Bank of Tanzania?
Hapo ndipo ninapoishangaa hii nchi! The massive depreciation of Tsh againt U.S $ haijawahi kutokea katika nchi hii kiasi hiki!hii nchi sio Somalia au Congo ambako vita vinaweza kabisa to bring this kind of depreciation, ajabu, Hazina na BOT wako kimya!

Hali hii inadhoofisha uchumi wa nchi na hata uchumi wa mtu mmoja mmoja! Miaka ya nyuma, BOT walikuwa wanaitisha press confress naku address whats happening! Na above all wao watafanya nini kusababibisha Tsh i appreciate! Kwa hili Govenor wa BOT anastahili kujiuzulu kwani ni more serious than escrow account...
 
Jamani, ni wiki tatu na nusu toka jamaa aamuru fungu lingine la fedha litengenezwe na kuletwa kwa ndege ya wasaudia B747, ikiwa ni mfano wa alichokua akikifanya hayati Idd Amin Dada, aliyekuwa rais wa nchi ya Uganda.

Kwamba matumizi yalikuwa mabaya ya madaraka na ilipoonekana kwamba hakuna fedha alikuwa anazifyatua tu bila kujali kuwa angelipoteza thamani ya fedha ya Uganda, kitu ambacho kimeifanya pesa hiyo ya Uganda kutokuwa na thamani tena mpaka leo.

Madeni yamekuwa mengi kwenye kila taasisi, mfano NSSF n.k. Ni suala la kumuomba MUNGU huyu jamaa amalize tu aondoke tupate rais mzalendo wa kweli, lakini si vinginevyo!
 
This is the ripple effect of Escrow scandal! Someone had warned about this late last year, $2000 is looming!
 
Tumieni fursa msafirishe bidhaa nje ya Tanzania. Badala ya kulalama. Wakati ndiyo huu.
Tatizo kubwa ni kwy monetary, economic and fiscal policy ni mbaya nchi hii imekuwa tegemezi sana we cannot continue spending more than what we bring in. huwezi kuwa na revenue ya bil 900 lakini unaspend 1.2-1.5 trilion monthly that is a lethal to any economy and not sustainable in long run.

Dawa(solution)
1. grow economy using our own resources by investing more on agriculture sector
2. cut spending to the bones on un necessary spending like foreign trips and marupurupu
3. cut interest rate close to zero to encourage small scale entrepreneurship to borrow to invest on their business
4. stop growing the govt by starting new programs kila kukicha, keep closer eye on existing programs
kama ukiona they are not effective kill them and re locate money somewhere else where is critical.
5. shughulikia tatizo la rushwa na ufisadi kwani utakatishaji fedha money laundering nao unachangia kuanguka
kwa shillingi.
 
You do know that the dollar is also appreciating on the world market, measures that BoT can not control.

Juzi nilikuwa naangalia transfer za hela fulani kutoka Euro kwenda dollar nikafikiri benki wamekosea, maana euro na dollar karibu sawa. Ikabidi niangalie exchange rate kuhakikisha sijapunjwa, kuangalia exchange rate naona euro na dolar sasa karibu sawa, wakati kuna wakati mwaka jana euro moja ilikuwa sawa na dollar moja na nusu.

Kama tunataka kulinganisha currencies tulinganishe na index ya a basket of currencies, sio na dollar. Kama tunalinganisha na dollar hata nchi zote zinazotumiq euro zimeporomoka sana.
 
Juzi nilikuwa naangalia transfer za hela fulani kutoka Euro kwenda dollar nikafikiri benki wamekosea, maana euro na dollar karibu sawa. Ikabidi niangalie exchange rate kuhakikisha sijapunjwa, kuangalia exchange rate naona euro na dolar sasa karibu sawa, wakati kuna wakati mwaka jana euro moja ilikuwa sawa na dollar moja na nusu.

Kama tunataka kulinganisha currencies tulinganishe na index ya a basket of currencies, sio na dollar. Kama tunalinganisha na dollar hata nchi zote zinazotumiq euro zimeporomoka sana.
Dollar is raising due to expected federal government interest rise some time this year. Therefore businesses are cautious to spend at the moment money movement is a bit tight kama unafuatilia biz news a lot of american based businesses with operation oversee are forecasting less profit after exchanges due to the rising dollar.

Nadhani its part of the policy not to encourage unnecessary oversee venture na kubakiza ajira kwao.
 
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