Despite Opposition Unity, Tanzania's CCM Likely to Keep Grip on Power
Michael Jennings Thursday, Sept. 24, 2015
With President Jakaya Kikwete due to step down next month after his constitutionally limited two terms, all eyes in Tanzania have been on the succession. For the past 18 months, two front-runners representing opposing factions within the ever-fractious ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, have dominated headlines: former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and former Foreign Minister Bernard Membe.
But in a surprise in July, the CCM, which has ruled Tanzania since its independence in 1961, selected Minister of Public Works John Magufuli as its official presidential candidate. Lowassa, who had attracted the ire of CCM bigwigs for starting his campaign early and had raised concerns over his implication in a corruption scandal that led to his resignation as prime minister in 2008, was left off the final shortlist of candidates.
Stung by his exclusion, Lowassa, in another twist, quit the party and joined forces with Chadema, one of Tanzania's four main opposition parties that had come together to run as a coalition in the Oct. 25th elections. Then, in early August, the opposition coalition rallied around its own surprise single presidential candidate: Lowassa. The shuffling has raised questions about the strength and state of the CCM and hopes for the opposition ahead of what looks to be a closely contested election.
With few real policy differences between its candidates, the CCM selected Magufuli for two main reasons. First, he was not linked to either of its two main factions and played no role in the infighting that has done so much to divide the party over the past few years. He was seen as the best hope for unifying the CCM in the face of a potential stronger challenge from the opposition.
Second, by choosing someone untainted by past corruption scandals, the party hoped that international donors, who have in recent years put pressure on the state to do more to tackle graft, would be persuaded that it is getting serious about doing so. Of course, both Kikwete and his predecessor, Benjamin Mkapa, started their terms with similar promises to prosecute officials and root out corruption.
Despite internal divisions, the relative weakness of Kikwete and the consequent lack of his government's direction, especially during his second term, the CCM remains a powerful and genuinely popular party. It has considerable strength in rural areas, and in last December's local elections it won 77 percent of the votes.
Yet the share of the CCM's vote in the presidential and local elections has been on a downward trend, reflecting the growing success of the opposition parties and their moves toward greater unity. In 2005, Kikwete secured over 80 percent of votes for his presidency; by 2010 that had fallen to 61 percent. But if that might give hope to opposition parties, the CCM domination of parliament is stronger: It won 78 percent of parliamentary seats in the 2010 elections.
Even if the party fails to overwhelmingly dominate, as it did up to a decade ago, Magufuli still looks set to win this October, and the CCM's share of the presidential vote could increase on the appeal of a new candidate. The CCM will almost certainly form the largest bloc within parliament, probably by a significant majority. The CCM's selection of a former member of Zanzibar's power-sharing government, Samai Suluhu Hassan, as its vice presidential candidate also looks like a particularly smart move in its efforts to regain control of the semi-autonomous island, where it will face a stiff challenge from the opposition Civic United Front, which has a stronghold there.
Over the past year, the Civic United Front and the three other main opposition parties-Chadema, the National Convention for Construction and Reform-Mageuzi and the National League for Democracy-have held negotiations over establishing a coalition, called Ukawa, to fight CCM in October. Borrowing from the experience of Kenya, where such a coalition successfully ended the Kenya African National Union's four decades of post-independence dominance, opposition leaders hope their unity could unsettle and perhaps even defeat the CCM incumbent.
Such commitments for a unified opposition have been made before, however, only to collapse amid personal animosities, rivalries and ambitions. Opposition politics in Tanzania remains focused on individuals rather than on sharp policy differences. All too often, personal ambition for the position of principle opposition leader has pulled delicately established coalitions apart. Greater unity in last December's local elections suggested this attempt might be more successful than others.
But Lowassa is the wild card. His admission into the party was followed by the departure of Chadema's erstwhile leader, Willibroad Slaa, who had been widely tipped to be the coalition unity candidate for the presidential election. Slaa had, unsurprisingly, objected to Lowassa's parachuting in and assumption of the nomination.
A former CCM bigwig and one of the most divisive politicians in Tanzania, Lowassa has quickly started speaking like a long-time opposition leader. Launching his campaign late last month, he pledged to rid the country of corruption and a regime that had led to "poverty, massive unemployment and wanton plunder of the country's natural resources." But can he secure a surprise win over his former party and end the CCM's hegemony?
Probably not. First, the CCM's popularity has not rested on the popularity of individuals-its first leader, Julius Nyerere, aside-but on the legacy of the party as a whole. And it remains popular, as seen in parliamentary and recent local elections.
Second, Lowassa is highly divisive; not only did Slaa resign from Chadema in protest at Lowassa's nomination, but he has continued to slam his old party, saying it has lost public credibility and trust. Moreover, Lowassa's politics remain opaque, and many will be concerned about his links to past corruption scandals and what impact his election could have on international donors. While he may be a big name and bring a certain star quality to the opposition, he has already alienated some within it and could alienate many more over the next month. The opposition may have a difficult job maintaining its unity while being led by someone at the center of events and disputes that threatened to tear the CCM apart.
Third, there are now two major opposition politicians outside the coalition: Slaa and former Chadema MP Zitto Kabwe, whom Slaa earlier forced out of the party. Although neither is running next month, they could draw support away from the coalition in key seats with their criticisms of Chadema, increasing the CCM's chance for victory.
The CCM still has a clear edge, and Magufuli will probably be the next president, despite another high-profile defection from the party last month to the opposition that could tighten the race. But expect the opposition to make inroads against the CCM's dominance. And if the fragile opposition coalition can be maintained, even in defeat it will have something to build on for the 2020 elections, in its next challenge to the CCM's grip on politics in Tanzania.
Michael Jennings is a senior lecturer in the department of development studies at SOAS, University of London.
Source : Despite Opposition Unity, Tanzania’s CCM Likely to Keep Grip on Power
Michael Jennings Thursday, Sept. 24, 2015
With President Jakaya Kikwete due to step down next month after his constitutionally limited two terms, all eyes in Tanzania have been on the succession. For the past 18 months, two front-runners representing opposing factions within the ever-fractious ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, have dominated headlines: former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and former Foreign Minister Bernard Membe.
But in a surprise in July, the CCM, which has ruled Tanzania since its independence in 1961, selected Minister of Public Works John Magufuli as its official presidential candidate. Lowassa, who had attracted the ire of CCM bigwigs for starting his campaign early and had raised concerns over his implication in a corruption scandal that led to his resignation as prime minister in 2008, was left off the final shortlist of candidates.
Stung by his exclusion, Lowassa, in another twist, quit the party and joined forces with Chadema, one of Tanzania's four main opposition parties that had come together to run as a coalition in the Oct. 25th elections. Then, in early August, the opposition coalition rallied around its own surprise single presidential candidate: Lowassa. The shuffling has raised questions about the strength and state of the CCM and hopes for the opposition ahead of what looks to be a closely contested election.
With few real policy differences between its candidates, the CCM selected Magufuli for two main reasons. First, he was not linked to either of its two main factions and played no role in the infighting that has done so much to divide the party over the past few years. He was seen as the best hope for unifying the CCM in the face of a potential stronger challenge from the opposition.
Second, by choosing someone untainted by past corruption scandals, the party hoped that international donors, who have in recent years put pressure on the state to do more to tackle graft, would be persuaded that it is getting serious about doing so. Of course, both Kikwete and his predecessor, Benjamin Mkapa, started their terms with similar promises to prosecute officials and root out corruption.
Despite internal divisions, the relative weakness of Kikwete and the consequent lack of his government's direction, especially during his second term, the CCM remains a powerful and genuinely popular party. It has considerable strength in rural areas, and in last December's local elections it won 77 percent of the votes.
Yet the share of the CCM's vote in the presidential and local elections has been on a downward trend, reflecting the growing success of the opposition parties and their moves toward greater unity. In 2005, Kikwete secured over 80 percent of votes for his presidency; by 2010 that had fallen to 61 percent. But if that might give hope to opposition parties, the CCM domination of parliament is stronger: It won 78 percent of parliamentary seats in the 2010 elections.
Even if the party fails to overwhelmingly dominate, as it did up to a decade ago, Magufuli still looks set to win this October, and the CCM's share of the presidential vote could increase on the appeal of a new candidate. The CCM will almost certainly form the largest bloc within parliament, probably by a significant majority. The CCM's selection of a former member of Zanzibar's power-sharing government, Samai Suluhu Hassan, as its vice presidential candidate also looks like a particularly smart move in its efforts to regain control of the semi-autonomous island, where it will face a stiff challenge from the opposition Civic United Front, which has a stronghold there.
Over the past year, the Civic United Front and the three other main opposition parties-Chadema, the National Convention for Construction and Reform-Mageuzi and the National League for Democracy-have held negotiations over establishing a coalition, called Ukawa, to fight CCM in October. Borrowing from the experience of Kenya, where such a coalition successfully ended the Kenya African National Union's four decades of post-independence dominance, opposition leaders hope their unity could unsettle and perhaps even defeat the CCM incumbent.
Such commitments for a unified opposition have been made before, however, only to collapse amid personal animosities, rivalries and ambitions. Opposition politics in Tanzania remains focused on individuals rather than on sharp policy differences. All too often, personal ambition for the position of principle opposition leader has pulled delicately established coalitions apart. Greater unity in last December's local elections suggested this attempt might be more successful than others.
But Lowassa is the wild card. His admission into the party was followed by the departure of Chadema's erstwhile leader, Willibroad Slaa, who had been widely tipped to be the coalition unity candidate for the presidential election. Slaa had, unsurprisingly, objected to Lowassa's parachuting in and assumption of the nomination.
A former CCM bigwig and one of the most divisive politicians in Tanzania, Lowassa has quickly started speaking like a long-time opposition leader. Launching his campaign late last month, he pledged to rid the country of corruption and a regime that had led to "poverty, massive unemployment and wanton plunder of the country's natural resources." But can he secure a surprise win over his former party and end the CCM's hegemony?
Probably not. First, the CCM's popularity has not rested on the popularity of individuals-its first leader, Julius Nyerere, aside-but on the legacy of the party as a whole. And it remains popular, as seen in parliamentary and recent local elections.
Second, Lowassa is highly divisive; not only did Slaa resign from Chadema in protest at Lowassa's nomination, but he has continued to slam his old party, saying it has lost public credibility and trust. Moreover, Lowassa's politics remain opaque, and many will be concerned about his links to past corruption scandals and what impact his election could have on international donors. While he may be a big name and bring a certain star quality to the opposition, he has already alienated some within it and could alienate many more over the next month. The opposition may have a difficult job maintaining its unity while being led by someone at the center of events and disputes that threatened to tear the CCM apart.
Third, there are now two major opposition politicians outside the coalition: Slaa and former Chadema MP Zitto Kabwe, whom Slaa earlier forced out of the party. Although neither is running next month, they could draw support away from the coalition in key seats with their criticisms of Chadema, increasing the CCM's chance for victory.
The CCM still has a clear edge, and Magufuli will probably be the next president, despite another high-profile defection from the party last month to the opposition that could tighten the race. But expect the opposition to make inroads against the CCM's dominance. And if the fragile opposition coalition can be maintained, even in defeat it will have something to build on for the 2020 elections, in its next challenge to the CCM's grip on politics in Tanzania.
Michael Jennings is a senior lecturer in the department of development studies at SOAS, University of London.
Source : Despite Opposition Unity, Tanzania’s CCM Likely to Keep Grip on Power
