Mchambuzi
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 24, 2007
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Nina mchango kidogo juu ya bajeti yetu ya 2011-2012. Kama budget yetu imedhamiria kutumika kama chombo cha ku-stimulate or induce economic growth with equity (i.e. pro – poor growth), then our current budget is a failure. Imegeuka zaidi kuwa bajeti ya kushabikia ukuaji wa uchumi ambao kwanza ni matokeo ya soko huria ambalo wanaojidai nalo sio zaidi ya asilimia kumi (yani watanzania milioni 4); na pili, ukuaji huu wa uchumi haujatokana na mikakati thabiti iliyowekwa na serikali ili kukuza uchumi shirikishi kwa maana ya kwamba benefits to trickle down to the poor, badala yake, kwa kiasi kikubwa ni kwamba maskini (zaidi ya watanzania milioni 36) wakifaidika ni kwa bahati sana kwani kimsingi hawakulengwa (zaidi ya kutajwa tu); nitajaribu kuyafafanua baadae;
Bajeti ya mwaka huu imejadiliwa na mengi yameshasemwa kwahiyo sio hekima kuyarudia. Ningependa kuchukua nafasi hii kuwapongeza wale wote ndani ya CCM na upinzania ambao wamefanikisha bajeti hii kurudishwa ilipotoka ikafanyiwe marekebisho. Nitajaribu kugusia maeneo kadhaa tu kama ifuatavyo.
Such persistence incidence of poverty inamaanisha kwamba bajeti zetu (sio hii tu) zimefeli to meet the development needs and development challenges of our country.
Kwa ajili ya Maendeleo kama vile elimu, afya, maji, miundo mbinu, zimetengwa trilioni 4.9 tu kati ya bajeti nzima ya trilioni 13.5. Kwa maana nyingine na rahisi – wale waliokuwa na ajira rasmi serikalini na taasisi za umma wametengewa kama posho na mishahara shilling trillion 3.2 kati ya bajeti nzima ya 13.5 trillion and some of these funds zinatokana na mapato ya kodi wanazotozwa wakulima na kina mama wanaouza vitumbua barabarani; wakulima na maskini hawa wasio kwenye sekta rasmi, wao wanategemewa wanufaike na 4.9 trilioni kwa njia ya huduma za kijamii ambazo zinaishia kufaidiwa zaidi na wenye uwezo na pia walio mijini kwani huduma za kijamii vijijini ni nadra sana; vile vile pesa nyingi zinazotengwa kwa ajili ya huduma za kijamii imekuwa ni jadi kusikia zinayeyuka huko kwenye halmashauri zetu na wanaokula ni wale ambao wanafaidi lile fungu la 3.2 trilioni la mishahara na posho ambayo kwa kiasi kikubwa inatokana na kodi wanazotozwa maskini; na ndio wao waliopewa jukumu la kusimamia fedha na miradi ya Maendeleo yani zile 4.9 trilioni; matokeo huwa aidha hazifanyi shughuli iliyokusudiwa kutokana ukweli kwamba huduma nyingi zinapelekwa mijini wakati maskini wapo wengi vijijini au huduma hizi za 4.9 trillioni kwa kiasi kikubwa zinaishia kuwanufaisha watendaji ambao wanazichakachua. Suala hili limewekwa bayana na kamati ya bunge ya hesabu za serikali za mitaa inayoongozwa na Mh. Mrema na Mh. Iddi Azzan. Sababu mbili hizi ndio chanzo kikubwa cha the vicious cycle of poverty and corruption.
Katika bajeti ya 2011-2012, pia Waziri ametamka kwamba mkakati uliopo ni kuhakikisha ndani ya miaka minne (by 2015) tunapunguza external dependency ya budget yetu, lengo ikiwa kiwango hicho kisizidi asilimia 10% ya bajeti by 2015 (kwa sasa ni kama asilimia 36); swali la msingi hapa ni je, kwa hali hii ambayo maskini wanatengewa fedha kidogo kwahivyo kutoinuliwa kijamii na kiuchumi ili waweze kuchangia pato la taifa lao kwa kasi zaidi, wataendelea kunyonywa kupitia ongezeko la kodi wasizoona faida yake ili mradi tufanikishe lengo la kupunguza dependency ya donor funds on our budget by 2015? Sababu kama tunataka tuwe na bajeti ya kujitegemea, ni lazima tukijikite zaidi kuongeza mapato ya ndani. Je huku kutatokana na ubunifu wa vyanzo vipya vya mapato ya serikali? Kwani hadi sasa hakuna ushahidi juu ya jitiaza ya ubunifu huu; kinachoonekana ni serikali kujaribu kuzikimbia sekta zinazogusa maslahi ya wawekezaji na pia kuzikimbia sekta ambazo inaziona ili kuzifanikisha ziwe zinachangia pato la taifa, zitaileta serikali gharama kabla ya mafanikio, ndio maana mwisho wa siku huwa ni kukimbilia kwenye vyanzo ambavyo vipo wazi, na visivyohitaji nguvu ya ziada zaidi ya kuviwekea rules and regulations mfano VAT; Na kama punguzo la dependency on donors juu ya bajeti zetu kufikia chini ya 10% by 2015 litatokana na kodi toka sekta ya madini ambapo tumekuwa tunapigania sana kodi toka kwenye madini ili tuanze kunufaika na rasilimali zetu, mbona suala hili halijaguswa katika bajeti?
Ni muhimu tueleweshwe zaidi juu ya mikakati hii ya kupunguza kuwategemea wahisani.
Tukirudi nyuma kidogo katika historia ya nchi yetu, mawaziri wa fedha wa Mwalimu Nyerere walisifiwa sana kwa utendaji wao kwani walikuwa ni wataalamu, waelewa na waliojali na kuwatumikia wananchi – hawa walikuwa Amir Jamal, Paul Bomani na Edwin Mtei. Bajeti ya kwanza ya Tanganyika huru ilikuwa ni ile ya 1962/63 chini ya waziri Paul Bomani lakini iliyoanza kwa kazi nzuri ilikuwa ni ile ya mwaka 1963/4 chini ya marehemu Amiri Jamal. Bajeti yake ya T.sh milioni 939 ilisifiwa sana kuwa ya kwanza na ya aina yake kwa maana ya kwamba matumizi ya serikali yalikuwa chini ya mapato ya serikali na hazina had a surplus of 1 million shillings zikiwa hazijapangiwa matumizi yoyote kwa kipindi chote cha 1963/1964. This is what we call fiscal discipline. Kwa miaka ya sasa nidhamu kama hii ni haba kwani imekuwa ni tabia ya watendai wetu wakishirikiana na wahasibu wao kuhakikisha salio lolote lililobakia katika idara mbali mbali linatafutiwa matumizi hata kama sio ya lazima ili bajeti mpya ikija fedha nyingine ziingie; huku ni kudumaza Maendeleo; Tumesikia mara nyingi watunza fedha (wahasibu wa taasisi na idara kadhaa) wakijipangia matumizi mengi ya ovyo ili akaunti zao ziwe tupu bajeti mpya ikiwadia; kwa watu hawa, wanaona kama vile ni kosa au dhambi kubwa sana kubakisha au kurudisha hazina salio lolote. Na ni kawaida sana kwa hazina nao kutofuatilia kwa umakini. Tukumbuke masalio ya bajeti kama haya yanatokana na kodi inayolipwa na maskini ambao wao hutengewa trilioni 4.9 katika bajeti indirectly kupitia huduma za kijamii wakati wanaoifilisi bajeti na wanaofuja hela zao ni watendaji waliotengewa 3.2 trilion ambazo zinaenda moja kwa moja mifukoni mwao kama misharaha na posho; role of public expenditure reviews ni muhimu sana hapa;
Tukirudi katika historia, mwaka 1964/65 Amiri Jamal akiwa bado waziri wa fedha, i, pia aliweka rekodi ya kipekee kwa mwaka huo wa fedha. Tulikuwa na bajeti ya paundi million 35. Matumizi ya kawaida yalikuwa paundi 12.4 milioni na yale ya Maendeleo yakiwa 22 milion pounds; Hii ilikuwa ni bajeti ya kwanza ya Maendeleo kwani ilikuwa ni ya kwanza na ya pekee ambapo matumizi ya Maendeleo yalizidi yale ya kawaida. Asilimia 63 ya bajeti ilikwenda kwenye matumizi ya Maendeleo na asilimia kama 37 ndio ilikwenda kwenye posho na mishahara. This is a typical fiscal discipline. Today, hii ratio ni the opposite.
Edwin Mtei akiwa waziri wa fedha kati ya mwaka 1976 – 1979 alihakikisha kwamba fungu la Maendeleo na lile la matumizi ya kawaida kama mishahara na posho hayatofautiani sana pamoja na kwamba kulikuwa na challenge kwamba public sector was the only employer at that time na sera ilikuwa full employment – kila mtu mwenye uwezo wa kufanya kazi ni lazima afanye na apate kazi was the order of the day; Chini ya Mtei, kwa wastani, fungu la Maendeleo lilikuwa sio chini ya asilimia 42 katika kipindi chake chote alipokuwa waziri wa fedha; Baada ya enzi hizi za Amir Jamal na Edwin Mtei, hatujawahi tena kuwa na bajeti inayomweka maskini at the centre. Mawaziri wa fedha wa Nyerere hawa wawili walifanikisha hilo kwa kiasi kikubwa. Na ni wakati huu ambapo tuliona mtanzania akipata Maendeleo makubwa ya kijamii kama vile elimu na afya; changamoto kubwa ilibakia katika Maendeleo ya kiuchumi; We remain to wonder what if Mwalimu Nyerere angeamua kutumia rasilimali kama madini, kwa umakini na Uzalendo aliokuwa nao, sio siri kwamba maendeleo ya uchumi kwa mtanzania yangeboreshwa zaidi;
Chini ya Mwinyi, longest serving minister wa fedha alikuwa ni Msuya (kwani Malima, Kibona na JK walikaa muda mfupi); wakati wa Msuya kati ya 1985 na 1990, kwa wastani, maskini walitengewa asilimia 21 ya bajeti (ukifananisha na wastani wa karibia asilimia 40 wakati wa Nyerere). Kipindi cha baada ya 1985 maskini alitupwa kuliko kipindi chochote cha historia ya nchi yetu kiasi cha kuifanya Tanzania kuwa nchi ya tatu toka mwisho kwa umaskini duniani. Kipindi cha Mheshimiwa Mkapa waziri wa muda mrefu alikuwa Daniel Yona (kwani Mbilinyi na mramba walikaa muda mfupi); Yona alijaribu kurejesha maskini to the centre kwani allocation ya budget for development ilipanda kidogo na kufikia wastani wa 30% of the total budget.
Leo hii tumefikia hatua muhimu kwani wabunge wetu walimeona tatizo lililopo katika bajeti zetu kwani imekuwa ni utamaduni kuwa na porojo juu ya maskini bila ya vitendo;
Ili bajeti yetu kwa 2011-2011 iwe credible, inahitaji to meet the following:
The MTEF should become a comprehensive document covering all sources of revenue and all public sector expenditures in Tanzania. Tatizo huwa linajitokeza kwamba sometimes the central Government has very incomplete information for instance on donor aid, significant revenue resources are off-budget and not centrally reported, resulting in an MTEF which gives only a partial picture of total public expenditure. Donors nao huwa wanachangia mapungufu katika MTEF, so it is extremely important for donors to respect the MTEF disciplines, watoe reports on their commitments thus enabling their spending to be prioritized as part of the MTEF process, even if, for reasons of accountability, wakiendelea to retain their own disbursement procedures.
In order for public expenditure to better serve the poor, pande zote mbili meaning serikali na upinzani need to realize that ‘POLITICAL WILL' to confront difficult choices is necessary but not sufficient; public expenditure needs to be aligned to more effective public expenditure management, macroeconomic and budget stability. A budget system that turn policy analysis into actual cash releases to implement the intended policies need to be in place.
An effective link between policy and budgeting is necessary. Kuwa na budget ambayo inakuwa implemented as planned will not lead into policy effectiveness if budget plans do not reflect priorities. This budgeting failure occurs hapa Tanzania especially when kunapokuwa na weak linkages kati ya budgeting and policy making, such as when they are conducted in separate institutions, or separate structures in the same institution, au when haziwi linked on time.
Mwisho kabisa, policies should be linked directly to the needs and priorities of the poor. Bajeti ya mwaka huu lazima ije na a detailed framework on how the priority sectors of Umeme, Maji, Miundombinu, Kilimo + Umwagiliaji and expansion of private were chosen together with the performance review based on earlier allocation of resources towards these sectors;
Ni muhimu wawakilishi wetu bungeni wasisahau ya kwamba they have the final say and responsibility for making our budget iwe pro- poor in a sustainable manner;
Bajeti ya mwaka huu imejadiliwa na mengi yameshasemwa kwahiyo sio hekima kuyarudia. Ningependa kuchukua nafasi hii kuwapongeza wale wote ndani ya CCM na upinzania ambao wamefanikisha bajeti hii kurudishwa ilipotoka ikafanyiwe marekebisho. Nitajaribu kugusia maeneo kadhaa tu kama ifuatavyo.
- Tumekuwa tunajipongeza sana kwamba tunavunja rekodi ya GDP growth rates mfano ile ya over 6.5% kati ya mwaka 2000 na mwaka huu wa 2010. Tunazidi kujidai kwamba GDP per capita yetu inakimbilia dollar 500 na eti hatupo mbali sana kufikia kuwa nchi ya Maendeleo ya kati (kama Africa ya kusini, Misri, Vietnam n.k) na sio nchi maskini tena kwani ili kuwa kwenye ligi ya Maendeleo ya kati, GDP per capita yako lazima ifikie $999. Kufikia GDP per capita ya kiwango hiki kwa mtindo wa kuachia mfano sekta ya madini (kwani ndio imekuwa kiini cha GDP growth since 2000) iendeshe mambo inavyotaka ili mradi pato la taifa liongezeke sio kazi ngumu kwani GDP per capita is an illusional measure of well – being ya wananchi ambayo inagawanya tu pato la taifa la mwaka kwa idadi ya watu (population). Ni muhimu tuachane na kipimo hiki cha ovyo cha Maendeleo cha World Bank kwani viongozi na watunga sera wetu wakijipanga kwa mtindo huu, hatutafanikisha malengo ya kufuta umaskini kwani hata hiyo GDP per capita ya dollar 500 ya leo sio kwamba ni wananchi wanapewa mifukoni bali ni reflection ya ongezeko la pato la taifa ambalo halimnufaishi maskini.
Such persistence incidence of poverty inamaanisha kwamba bajeti zetu (sio hii tu) zimefeli to meet the development needs and development challenges of our country.
- Kwa kutazama haraka haraka, tuangalie, je bajeti ya 2011-2012 inataja key words muhimu kama hizi mara ngapi? Umaskini, Vijijini, Vijana, Watoto, Wanawake? Matokeo ni kama ifuatavyo:
- Umaskini imetajwa 7 times kwa juu juu sana;
- Vijijini imetajwa 3 times ingawa huko ndio kuna zaidi ya asilimia 65 ya watanzania. Vijijini imetajwa zaidi kuhusu utekelezaji wa southern agricultural growth wakati vijiji Tanzania vipo northen, eastern, na western pia.
- Watoto imetajwa only once na its only on watoto yatima na kijuu juu sana.
- Vijana imetajwa mara 3. Ikumbukwe kwamba vijana na watoto kwa sasa ni asilimia 70% ya watanzania milioni 40 na ushee. Mtindo wa kuwataja vijana kwenye bajeti mwaka huu chini na mikakati ya AJIRA, VETA, SIDO hauna tofauti kubwa sana na miaka iliyopita ambapo hakujazaa matunda yoyote ya maana kwani AJIRA, VETA na SIDO ni kama vile inaogopa vijiji kama ukoma. Kilichotofauti hasa hasa juu ya vijana na bajeti mwaka huu ni juu ya punguzo la kodi kwa vijana wanaojiajiri na biashara ya kuuza majokofu kama mkakati wa kuwaondoa toka kwenye umaskini. Punguzo la kodi kwa wafanyabishara wa majokofu ni kutona 25% to 10%. Mantiki ya kulenga wajokofu badala ya vijana machinga ni ngumu kuielewa kwani ajira ya vijana wengi ni machinga na wengi zaidi hawana ajira yoyote; majokofu yanalenga wenye matumizi ya umeme Tanzania ambao hawazidi asilimia 15 ya watanzania, na haizidi asilimia 4 ya watanzaa vijijini.
- Neno wanawake katika bajeti ya mwaka huu halijatajwa kabisa ingawa kumekuwa na mikakati ya kuwawezesha kina mama kiuchumi, kijamii, kisiasa (udiwani, ubunge, na sasa urais). Hata kuelezea masikitiko yangu juu ya hili suala la wanawake kutotajwa katika bajeti mama, kina mama ambao ndio nguvu kazi mashambani kuliko wanaume (wakulima), walezi wa watoto wetu, wapiga kura wenzi zaidi, naishiwa nguvu kabisa kulielezea.
- Aggregate fiscal discipline;
- Resource allocation based on strategic priorities
- Efficient and effective utilization of resources.
- Watanzania pamoja na kuwa wanazidi kulipa kodi nyingi sana – measured as revenue to GDP ratio – ambapo sasa inakimbilia 18% huku serikali ikiweka malengo ya kukusanya kwa aslimia ya juu zaidi, watanzania have rarely gotten value for their money; Bajeti hii imezidi kupeleka fedha kidogo towards development expenditures kwani most of the funds zimezidi kwenda to recurrent expenditures (Mishahara na posho kwa watumishi wa serikali). Hii inakuja wakati huduma za msingi za kijamii bado ni duni na economic opportunities kwa maskini bado ni kikwazo; Leo hii asilimia ya watanzania wanaioshi kwenye umaskini uliopilitiza (ambao hawana tofauti na kuwa omba omba) 36% (au milioni 16); hali hii haijabadilika kwa miaka mingi sana; na kama tulivyokwisha ona, zaidi ya watanzania milioni 35 kati ya 40 na ushee wanaishi chini ya shillingi 1,500 kwa siku huku gharama za maisha zikizidi kupanda;
- Budget deficit imezidi kuwa endemic kwani inapelekea deni kubwa sana la ndani ambalo serikali imekuwa likili entertain and which end up depressing uzalishaji nchini; deni hili mwananchi hana taarifa kwamba ina maanisha kwamba hata vitukuu vyake vitaishi maisha ya umaskini kama ya kwake kama hatua za haraka hazitachukuliwa;
- Bajeti inatoa ishara zote kwamba imekuwa vigumu kwa national development goals to be realized. Bajeti inajichanganya sana kuhusu framework ipi ndio inapewa mkakati na resources na kwa kiasi gani na kwa muda gani ili kusaidia kupunguza umaskini. Tumeshindwa kabisa ku deal vizuri na masuala muhimu katika hili ambayo siri yake ni ndogo tu: a link between budgeting, policy and planning. Tuna framework za Maendeleo nyingi na haziendani wala kushirikiana kwa ukaribu, ni kama zinashindana. Mfano PRSP/PRGF/Mkurabita, Vision 2025, National Poverty Eradication Sratetegy (1998) etc etc zinazidi kutuchanganya na kupoteza resources zetu;
- Disproportionate spending - kati ya matumizi ya kawaida na matumizi ya Maendeleo katika bajeti yetu limekuwa ni tatizo kubwa sana linalozidi kuchangia kuzorota kwa Maendeleo ya mtanzania. Kila mwaka fungu la Maendeleo ya kawaida (recurrent expenditures - kwa ajili ya mishahara, posho always ni kubwa sana compared to fungu kwa ajili ya maendeleo au la kuinua watanzania toka kwenye umaskini (kama vile elimu, afya, maji, miundombinu n.k). Tutalitzama hili kwa undani baadae kidogo;
- Vile vile, misuse of public resources is still rampant kama inavyoanishwa wakati wote na CAG; anachokieleza kila CAG na ripoti zake kila mwaka, kitu amhacho watanzania wengi wanashindwa kuelewa ni kwamba - kila mwaka, the return we get kutoka kwenye kodi zetu ni way below acceptable level.
- Sasa kwa sababu yameshachambuliwa mengi na wengine, mimi nitalenga kitu kimoja tu ambacho ni disproportionate spending - kati ya matumizi ya kuendeleza umaskini i.e. matumizi ya kawaida ya serikali/recurrent (yani mishahara, posho na marupurupu) versus matumizi muhimu kupunguza umaskini i.e. development expenditures (yani maji, afya, elimu, miundo mbinu, n.k).
Kwa ajili ya Maendeleo kama vile elimu, afya, maji, miundo mbinu, zimetengwa trilioni 4.9 tu kati ya bajeti nzima ya trilioni 13.5. Kwa maana nyingine na rahisi – wale waliokuwa na ajira rasmi serikalini na taasisi za umma wametengewa kama posho na mishahara shilling trillion 3.2 kati ya bajeti nzima ya 13.5 trillion and some of these funds zinatokana na mapato ya kodi wanazotozwa wakulima na kina mama wanaouza vitumbua barabarani; wakulima na maskini hawa wasio kwenye sekta rasmi, wao wanategemewa wanufaike na 4.9 trilioni kwa njia ya huduma za kijamii ambazo zinaishia kufaidiwa zaidi na wenye uwezo na pia walio mijini kwani huduma za kijamii vijijini ni nadra sana; vile vile pesa nyingi zinazotengwa kwa ajili ya huduma za kijamii imekuwa ni jadi kusikia zinayeyuka huko kwenye halmashauri zetu na wanaokula ni wale ambao wanafaidi lile fungu la 3.2 trilioni la mishahara na posho ambayo kwa kiasi kikubwa inatokana na kodi wanazotozwa maskini; na ndio wao waliopewa jukumu la kusimamia fedha na miradi ya Maendeleo yani zile 4.9 trilioni; matokeo huwa aidha hazifanyi shughuli iliyokusudiwa kutokana ukweli kwamba huduma nyingi zinapelekwa mijini wakati maskini wapo wengi vijijini au huduma hizi za 4.9 trillioni kwa kiasi kikubwa zinaishia kuwanufaisha watendaji ambao wanazichakachua. Suala hili limewekwa bayana na kamati ya bunge ya hesabu za serikali za mitaa inayoongozwa na Mh. Mrema na Mh. Iddi Azzan. Sababu mbili hizi ndio chanzo kikubwa cha the vicious cycle of poverty and corruption.
Katika bajeti ya 2011-2012, pia Waziri ametamka kwamba mkakati uliopo ni kuhakikisha ndani ya miaka minne (by 2015) tunapunguza external dependency ya budget yetu, lengo ikiwa kiwango hicho kisizidi asilimia 10% ya bajeti by 2015 (kwa sasa ni kama asilimia 36); swali la msingi hapa ni je, kwa hali hii ambayo maskini wanatengewa fedha kidogo kwahivyo kutoinuliwa kijamii na kiuchumi ili waweze kuchangia pato la taifa lao kwa kasi zaidi, wataendelea kunyonywa kupitia ongezeko la kodi wasizoona faida yake ili mradi tufanikishe lengo la kupunguza dependency ya donor funds on our budget by 2015? Sababu kama tunataka tuwe na bajeti ya kujitegemea, ni lazima tukijikite zaidi kuongeza mapato ya ndani. Je huku kutatokana na ubunifu wa vyanzo vipya vya mapato ya serikali? Kwani hadi sasa hakuna ushahidi juu ya jitiaza ya ubunifu huu; kinachoonekana ni serikali kujaribu kuzikimbia sekta zinazogusa maslahi ya wawekezaji na pia kuzikimbia sekta ambazo inaziona ili kuzifanikisha ziwe zinachangia pato la taifa, zitaileta serikali gharama kabla ya mafanikio, ndio maana mwisho wa siku huwa ni kukimbilia kwenye vyanzo ambavyo vipo wazi, na visivyohitaji nguvu ya ziada zaidi ya kuviwekea rules and regulations mfano VAT; Na kama punguzo la dependency on donors juu ya bajeti zetu kufikia chini ya 10% by 2015 litatokana na kodi toka sekta ya madini ambapo tumekuwa tunapigania sana kodi toka kwenye madini ili tuanze kunufaika na rasilimali zetu, mbona suala hili halijaguswa katika bajeti?
Ni muhimu tueleweshwe zaidi juu ya mikakati hii ya kupunguza kuwategemea wahisani.
Tukirudi nyuma kidogo katika historia ya nchi yetu, mawaziri wa fedha wa Mwalimu Nyerere walisifiwa sana kwa utendaji wao kwani walikuwa ni wataalamu, waelewa na waliojali na kuwatumikia wananchi – hawa walikuwa Amir Jamal, Paul Bomani na Edwin Mtei. Bajeti ya kwanza ya Tanganyika huru ilikuwa ni ile ya 1962/63 chini ya waziri Paul Bomani lakini iliyoanza kwa kazi nzuri ilikuwa ni ile ya mwaka 1963/4 chini ya marehemu Amiri Jamal. Bajeti yake ya T.sh milioni 939 ilisifiwa sana kuwa ya kwanza na ya aina yake kwa maana ya kwamba matumizi ya serikali yalikuwa chini ya mapato ya serikali na hazina had a surplus of 1 million shillings zikiwa hazijapangiwa matumizi yoyote kwa kipindi chote cha 1963/1964. This is what we call fiscal discipline. Kwa miaka ya sasa nidhamu kama hii ni haba kwani imekuwa ni tabia ya watendai wetu wakishirikiana na wahasibu wao kuhakikisha salio lolote lililobakia katika idara mbali mbali linatafutiwa matumizi hata kama sio ya lazima ili bajeti mpya ikija fedha nyingine ziingie; huku ni kudumaza Maendeleo; Tumesikia mara nyingi watunza fedha (wahasibu wa taasisi na idara kadhaa) wakijipangia matumizi mengi ya ovyo ili akaunti zao ziwe tupu bajeti mpya ikiwadia; kwa watu hawa, wanaona kama vile ni kosa au dhambi kubwa sana kubakisha au kurudisha hazina salio lolote. Na ni kawaida sana kwa hazina nao kutofuatilia kwa umakini. Tukumbuke masalio ya bajeti kama haya yanatokana na kodi inayolipwa na maskini ambao wao hutengewa trilioni 4.9 katika bajeti indirectly kupitia huduma za kijamii wakati wanaoifilisi bajeti na wanaofuja hela zao ni watendaji waliotengewa 3.2 trilion ambazo zinaenda moja kwa moja mifukoni mwao kama misharaha na posho; role of public expenditure reviews ni muhimu sana hapa;
Tukirudi katika historia, mwaka 1964/65 Amiri Jamal akiwa bado waziri wa fedha, i, pia aliweka rekodi ya kipekee kwa mwaka huo wa fedha. Tulikuwa na bajeti ya paundi million 35. Matumizi ya kawaida yalikuwa paundi 12.4 milioni na yale ya Maendeleo yakiwa 22 milion pounds; Hii ilikuwa ni bajeti ya kwanza ya Maendeleo kwani ilikuwa ni ya kwanza na ya pekee ambapo matumizi ya Maendeleo yalizidi yale ya kawaida. Asilimia 63 ya bajeti ilikwenda kwenye matumizi ya Maendeleo na asilimia kama 37 ndio ilikwenda kwenye posho na mishahara. This is a typical fiscal discipline. Today, hii ratio ni the opposite.
Edwin Mtei akiwa waziri wa fedha kati ya mwaka 1976 – 1979 alihakikisha kwamba fungu la Maendeleo na lile la matumizi ya kawaida kama mishahara na posho hayatofautiani sana pamoja na kwamba kulikuwa na challenge kwamba public sector was the only employer at that time na sera ilikuwa full employment – kila mtu mwenye uwezo wa kufanya kazi ni lazima afanye na apate kazi was the order of the day; Chini ya Mtei, kwa wastani, fungu la Maendeleo lilikuwa sio chini ya asilimia 42 katika kipindi chake chote alipokuwa waziri wa fedha; Baada ya enzi hizi za Amir Jamal na Edwin Mtei, hatujawahi tena kuwa na bajeti inayomweka maskini at the centre. Mawaziri wa fedha wa Nyerere hawa wawili walifanikisha hilo kwa kiasi kikubwa. Na ni wakati huu ambapo tuliona mtanzania akipata Maendeleo makubwa ya kijamii kama vile elimu na afya; changamoto kubwa ilibakia katika Maendeleo ya kiuchumi; We remain to wonder what if Mwalimu Nyerere angeamua kutumia rasilimali kama madini, kwa umakini na Uzalendo aliokuwa nao, sio siri kwamba maendeleo ya uchumi kwa mtanzania yangeboreshwa zaidi;
Chini ya Mwinyi, longest serving minister wa fedha alikuwa ni Msuya (kwani Malima, Kibona na JK walikaa muda mfupi); wakati wa Msuya kati ya 1985 na 1990, kwa wastani, maskini walitengewa asilimia 21 ya bajeti (ukifananisha na wastani wa karibia asilimia 40 wakati wa Nyerere). Kipindi cha baada ya 1985 maskini alitupwa kuliko kipindi chochote cha historia ya nchi yetu kiasi cha kuifanya Tanzania kuwa nchi ya tatu toka mwisho kwa umaskini duniani. Kipindi cha Mheshimiwa Mkapa waziri wa muda mrefu alikuwa Daniel Yona (kwani Mbilinyi na mramba walikaa muda mfupi); Yona alijaribu kurejesha maskini to the centre kwani allocation ya budget for development ilipanda kidogo na kufikia wastani wa 30% of the total budget.
Leo hii tumefikia hatua muhimu kwani wabunge wetu walimeona tatizo lililopo katika bajeti zetu kwani imekuwa ni utamaduni kuwa na porojo juu ya maskini bila ya vitendo;
Ili bajeti yetu kwa 2011-2011 iwe credible, inahitaji to meet the following:
- Kwanza na awali ya yote, lazima ituonyeshe how the poor were involved in the preparation process kwani budgeting is all about revenue and expendire – ni vizuri tujue upande wa pili wa revenue ambao ni wa walipa kodi walishirikishwa vipi katika kuweka priorities n.k;
- Pili, lazima budget iwe based on sound economic forecasts and targets, sio ubabaishaji (.e.g. inflation on bidhaa muhimu, GDP growth, poverty reduction targets) combined with robust resource inflow forecast;
- Tatu, lazima pawe na harmonization, alignment, transparency and predictability of donor funds; hapa kumekuwa na kuyumba sana;
- Nne, lazima budget iwe na framework that provides greater flexibility of policy and affordable expenditure plans; pia budget iwe forward thinking in terms of policies and expenditure plans;
- Tano, kuwepo na budget execution system that aligns actual and planned spending; inasemekana kuna tabia ya serikali kutumia au kuchota fedha katikati ya mwaka under the window ya dharura; kama ni kweli, hili liachwe; window hii itumike only when patatokea unforeseen and unpredictable conditions;
- Sita, budget lazima iwe performance oriented – it should encourage strategic allocation of resources at all levels and emphasize on efficiency and effectiveness in allocation and use of resources;
- Saba, there has to be an incentive framework with rules that are predictable and processes that change behaviours za watendaji hususan wasimamizi wa fedha za maendeleo; the budget should not only promote compliance among watendaji, but pia commitment na dedication;
- Nane, budget ikuze transparency and access to information as well as mechanism for accountability;
- Tisa, bajeti lazima iwe trustworthy – it should minimize tofauti kati ya fedha zitazotengwa kwa ajili ya Maendeleo and the actual expenditures kwani hili huwa ni tatizo kubwa katika bajeti zetu nyingi; tumeona mifano mingi ambapo wizara zinatengewa fedha kiasi gani lani actual expenditures zinakuwa short na hizo fedha hazirudi hazina na wanaozifuja hawachukuliwi hatua zozote za kisheria;
- Na kumi Bajeti lazima iwe na three Cs – Commitment, Clarity and Consistency;
The MTEF should become a comprehensive document covering all sources of revenue and all public sector expenditures in Tanzania. Tatizo huwa linajitokeza kwamba sometimes the central Government has very incomplete information for instance on donor aid, significant revenue resources are off-budget and not centrally reported, resulting in an MTEF which gives only a partial picture of total public expenditure. Donors nao huwa wanachangia mapungufu katika MTEF, so it is extremely important for donors to respect the MTEF disciplines, watoe reports on their commitments thus enabling their spending to be prioritized as part of the MTEF process, even if, for reasons of accountability, wakiendelea to retain their own disbursement procedures.
In order for public expenditure to better serve the poor, pande zote mbili meaning serikali na upinzani need to realize that ‘POLITICAL WILL' to confront difficult choices is necessary but not sufficient; public expenditure needs to be aligned to more effective public expenditure management, macroeconomic and budget stability. A budget system that turn policy analysis into actual cash releases to implement the intended policies need to be in place.
An effective link between policy and budgeting is necessary. Kuwa na budget ambayo inakuwa implemented as planned will not lead into policy effectiveness if budget plans do not reflect priorities. This budgeting failure occurs hapa Tanzania especially when kunapokuwa na weak linkages kati ya budgeting and policy making, such as when they are conducted in separate institutions, or separate structures in the same institution, au when haziwi linked on time.
Mwisho kabisa, policies should be linked directly to the needs and priorities of the poor. Bajeti ya mwaka huu lazima ije na a detailed framework on how the priority sectors of Umeme, Maji, Miundombinu, Kilimo + Umwagiliaji and expansion of private were chosen together with the performance review based on earlier allocation of resources towards these sectors;
Ni muhimu wawakilishi wetu bungeni wasisahau ya kwamba they have the final say and responsibility for making our budget iwe pro- poor in a sustainable manner;
