First and foremost, other than reading The Economist and Financial Times, I know very little about Economics. That said, I have more questions than answers in this topic.
Inflation rate as at July 2011 was about 11%, and as at May 2012 was about 18%. Therefore ongezeko halisi la budget ni around 0.105 trillion, i.e. 1.5 * (18%-11%). I stand to be corrected here.
Pia, ongezeko katika capital expenditure ni ONLY 0.1 trillion compared to 1.4 trillion ya revenue expenditure. It is evident we are spending very little on capital items, hivyo in the future there will be little return to finance our investments, hence a nation of beggars – indeed the apple doesn't fall very far from the tree (JK).
On the other note, how did we raise that 15 trillion? TRA wamekusanya ngapi? Mikopo kiasi gani na misaada kiasi gani?
Kwa upande wa ukusanyaji kodi, ni kiasi gani tumepoteza kutokana na misamaha ya madeni? Ni kampuni gani na watu gani waliosamehewa hayo madeni? Na kodi kubwa hukusanywa kutoka sehemu gani? Rasimali zetu zina mchango kiasi gani?
Upande wa mikopo, je tunakopa wapi? Kama ni mabenki, what is the interest rate charged? Nauliza hivyo kwa sababu, kwa mahesabu madogo tu, ukitumia the amount used to service our debts to the national debt, i.e 2.7/22 * 100 utapata around 12%. Tuseme tuchukue half of that to be the interest rate, which is 6%, utaona hii ni kubwa sana. Nchi ya ulaya inayokopa at that rate ni Spain ambayo ni bankrupt.
Pia kama tunakopa kwenye mabenki ya ndani (read commercial banks), can we please know these banks? Maana serikali inaweza kuwa inatumia ubabe kukopa pesa ambayo probability ya kurudi ni ndogo na mwisho wa siku hizi benki zitafeli – public will suffer, not CEOs nor the finance minister. Sasa can we know these "Bankias" zinazokopesha Serikali?
Upande wa misaada, kuna habari kwamba donors walifurahishwa na "utendaji na uwajibikaji" wa serikali, kwa hiyo hao donors ndio wamejipinda mpaka mwisho na kusaidia ongezeko la 1.5 trillion? $1bn?! Au zile zilikua stories tu..
Kitu kingine ninachohofia, tena sana, ni kwamba serikali ina matatizo ya pesa na wameombaomba mpaka wamechokwa, hivyo basi wameanza kula pesa za pensheni. This speaks volumes on how the pension funds have been spending their money lately. Hapo hapo, je ni kiasi gani cha fedha serikali inadaiwa na hizi pension funds in total? Juzi hapa NSSF imesema inaidai serikali 14bn kwenye ujenzi wa UDOM, most likely hiyo pesa haitarudi. Hili suala la kula pensheni solution kwa serikali itakua simple, wataongeza retirement age to 90 years, afu watatuambia tufunge mkanda. Hawashindwi! Hii ndiyo Tanzania, sijui ni Tanganyika, hata sijui but you get the drill..
Huko kwenye recurrent expenditure, jaribu kuuiliza "What are those recurrent expenditures?", the government is too big and careless. Hivi, hawa mawaziri waliotemwa na wanaoachia uwaziri wanapata benefits za wastaafu? Kidumu chama!!
Bado kuna wanaoongelea suala la EAC na matumizi ya sarafu moja. Huku gavana anasema uchumi umekua. Where is the firing squad?
Hakuna vision, ni bora liende na usanii tu. Hakuna future hapa.
Yes, I am a pessimist and I am abandoning ship!