Will a weakened America emerge victorious against communist China?

MALCOM LUMUMBA

JF-Expert Member
Jul 26, 2012
17,440
2,000
I recently watched a Symposium hosted by Central European University, and the speaker was none other than the eminent and legendary Joseph Nye from Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

The topic was about a new cloud in the horizon, a potential storm, The Rising China and the fate of the United States led global order established right after 1945.

He succinctly assured his audience that, despite all the setbacks and challenges cascading the Western World, America will eventually emerge as an undisputed master of the 21st Century ahead of China. But is it so ??? Well, let's delve into the corridors of history.

Professor Nye reiterated a position held dearly by typical American liberals, bureaucrats and technocrats: America is not only scientifically ahead of both China and Russia in terms of GDP, but also a custodian of all the cutting edge technologies that may prove disruptive, yet revolutionize mankind for centuries to come.

He boasted of America being ahead in critical research and nascent fields like Nano-technology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, space technology and medicine.

To an avid student of foreign relations, the statement sounds too familiar thou often under-looked by the Mainstream Media: President Xi Jinping on his "Chinese Rejuvenation Speech" of 2012 assured the Communist Party of China that by 2035 China will be a technological behemoth.

And really they have put up an effort in this thou abysmally low compared to that of the United States. In 2018 China scholars published more scientific works than the United States.

We may blush and shun these statistic, but the figures are enough to startle an ordinary thinking individual. Technology is pivotal to the development of any civilized society, let alone sustains the very fabric of the socio-economic and socio-political tenets of the modern state. It was technology that made morphed the 300 Germanic states led by Prussia into what came to be known as Imperial Germany in 1871.

Notable historians state that up until 1914 Great Britain and USA had 6000 and 20000 notable engineers respectively, while Imperial Germany had 60000 notable engineers.

Making a dialectical progression reflecting what I wrote, critics would argue and even some castigate my analogy, that China is not Imperial Germany which was a more democratic and a civilized state in the heart of Europe.

Such intellectuals are in open denial against the harsh realities of history: The Soviet Union being an authoritarian nation it was, used technology to transform a once ramshackle plutocracy headed by the Romanovs into a nuclear state that manhandled The dreaded Nazi War Machine (The Wehrmacht) during the Second World War.

The worse part is, Prof Michio Kaku says that unlike China, 50% of American Intellectuals with PhD's are foreign born, most of whom bear Green-Cards. All this being said and done, one point remains: Technology pays off.

More often than not, intellectuals like John Mearsheimer would make normally exclaim that America's role of throwing global powers like Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, The Former Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and The British Empire into the scrap heaps of history.

And like his counterpart Joseph Nye, he believes that America would sink deep into unprecedented levels to ensure that China is also thrown into a dustbin of history.

Kishore Mahbubani disagrees with such assurances, he reminds Americans like John Mearsheimer what George F Kenan (One of the architects of Containment Policy) used say: The success of America's foreign policy depends much on domestic spiritual vitality, reliable alliances and attitude of America as a superpower towards other nations. Kenan's advice is an anathema to Washington's political establishment, being precise to people like Donald J Trump.

From Kenan's assessment America would be sailing into uncharted waters when her domestic spiritual vitality has fallen short.

America has to be united both at home and across the Atlantic if she is to emerge victorious in The Great Game against China. Counter to this, some would argue that America has a very resilient political system which has taken lots of deadly blows in her 245 years life span.

The 19th and 20th Centuries American politics were haunted by an awful specter manifesting through surreal events like wars , slavery, assassinations and economic depressions.

Through it all even when divided at home as it is now, America dared to obliterate the Spanish-Empire in 1898 and made concessions to acquire Cuba and the Philippines from a declining European power.

But can a divided America, diminishing allies and vanishing economic prowess still stand tall against the Chinese Colossus ??? American Intellectuals like Graham T. Allison also from The Harvard Kennedy School of Government thinks not. Graham believes that China has already undertaken America in many aspects of development like infrastructure and international trade.

In his famous book Destined For War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap he makes a great point that, China may be ahead of America but that may not herald the fall of America.

Reinforcing this argument Kishore Mahbubani says China will win against America only in some aspects, because this world is multipolar and interdependent.

Graham goes further to advice both America and China to make painful adjustments in order to avert the possibility of a looming war.

One Graham's visible point from the entire book is The Thucydides Trap: A theory which explains that when a new nation arises to prominence threatening the status quo of the predominant power, then war is inevitable.

In our case the rising power is China and the predominant power is the USA, and the war will be The Third World War. Supporting his theory he gave historical example of this between Imperial Germany VS The British Empire, The Soviet Union Vs The United States, The British Empire Vs The United States, The Spanish Empire Vs England.

So to finish this piece, the late Prof Stephen Cohen said that a country's greatness is measured on how it responds to chaos within it's borders.

Things like outbreaks of disease, wars, natural disasters and economic shocks. Recently, the world borne witness of how America's ability to handle chaos has diminished, while some says it's Trump's fault but the reality is grin. Just look at Corona Outbreak, The raiding of the Capital, breakouts at Texas etc.

Saying America will still emerge a the undisputed master of the 21th Century is an overstatement that's in vogue.

Yet, realities paint a different picture: This global power struggle will adversely affect the position of Africa, but that's a topic for another day.
 

Jasmoni Tegga

JF-Expert Member
Oct 28, 2020
4,967
2,000
People should never underestimate the power ambayo US imejinyakulia hadi sasa ulimwenguni -- when US ikifikia mwisho wake, ikianza kuonesha weakness kama tunazoziona, people must know for SURE that something incredible, beyond mere human is about to happen. Don't tell me I am kidding; kids have got their rights, too :)
 

MALCOM LUMUMBA

JF-Expert Member
Jul 26, 2012
17,440
2,000
People should never underestimate the power ambayo US umejinyakulia hadi sasa ulimwenguni -- when US ikifikia mwisho wake, ikianza kuonesha weakness kama tunazoziona, people must know for SURE that something incredible, beyond mere human is about to happen. Don't tell me I am kidding; kids have got their rights, too :)
America is relatively declining.
 

Jasmoni Tegga

JF-Expert Member
Oct 28, 2020
4,967
2,000
America is relatively declining.


America has been on the very path of deterioration almost since time immemorial -- when she started tampering with her wonderful hard-fought Independence, Constitution, Democracy, Rule of Law, Justice for All, Equitability, Equality, Human Rights and Respect for & Protection of Every Single Life, and her path of peace and place of God and morality in the society both locally and worldwide. What we curiously witness now in America, and indeed, in the world, is the LATEST SYMPTOM of the decline & desintegration which has been in sure & steady progress for a very long time now -- a token, a sign which should have woken up and re-orient a new all slumbering minds.
 

Cole Williams

JF-Expert Member
Jun 1, 2016
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Tatizo laanza pale tunapojifanya twaijua Marekani kuliko Marekani yenyewe

IMG_2826.jpg
 

FRANC THE GREAT

JF-Expert Member
May 27, 2016
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Huu mjadala kuhusu "weakened America" sanjari na mijadala mingine inayofanana na huu haijaanza leo. Wamarekani na wasomi/wanazuoni mashuhuri wakiwemo kina Samuel Huntington walikuwa wakijadili kuhusu "kudhoofika kwa Marekani" tangu miaka ya 50. Kama mitandao ya kijamii ingekuwepo kuanzia kipindi hicho ikiwemo JamiiForums yetu, ni dhahiri nasi tungekuwa tumekwisha jadili humu muda mrefu sana kuhusiana na suala hili.

Mjadala huu umekuwa sasa kama utamaduni wa mara kwa mara wa Wamarekani. Tangu kipindi cha uimara wa Umoja wa Kisovieti (USSR) uliochochea mapinduzi makubwa ya kiyasayansi zikiwemo operesheni mbalimbali za anga za mbali, kuwepo kwa migogoro mbalimbali ukiwemo ule wa mafuta wa mwaka 73 pamoja na kuwepo kwa vita mbalimbali zilizoihusisha Marekani tangu miaka ya 50, mjadala huu na mingine inayofanana na huu imekuwa ikishamiri.

Katika kipindi chote hicho, wanazuoni walikuwa wakiutazama mwenendo wa utawala wa Marekani katika masuala mbalimbali ya kidunia na kuilinganisha nchi hiyo na mataifa mengine duniani. Leo hii tunaizungumzia China kama mpinzani mkuu wa Marekani katika masuala mbalimbali ya kidunia. Lakini, kipindi cha miaka ya 50 mpaka miaka ya 70 mwishoni, Umoja wa Kisovieti ama USSR ndiyo nchi iliyokuwa akitazamwa kama mpinzani mkuu atakaye pelekea "anguko la Marekani" kwa miaka kadhaa ijayo.

Baada ya USSR kuanza kudhoofika miaka ya 80, wasomi wetu haohao wakahamia kwa Mjapani na kumtaja kama mpinzani mkuu wa Marekani katika masuala mbalimbali hasa kiuchumi. Wasomi, kina Stanley Hoffmann na wengineo walikuwa miongoni mwa wapinzani wakubwa sana wa sera za Marekani miaka ya 80 na walituambia kuhusu habari hiihii ya "anguko la Marekani" huku wakilitumia anguko la USSR kama mfano. Mwaka 1990 na kuendelea, Japan ikaangukia katika mgogoro wa kiuchumi, habari ya Japan ikaishia hapo.

Hivi sasa, wasomi wetu wamehamia kwa Mchina. China sasa inatajwa kama mpinzani mkuu wa Marekani katika muktadha uleule wa kina Japan pamoja na USSR.

Ninachotaka kusema ni kuwa, mjadala huu si jambo geni. Umekuwa ni mjadala wa kujirudia kila baada ya wakati fulani. Wasomi wa miaka ya 50 waliujadili, wasomi wa miaka ya 70-80 wakauendeleza mjadala. Na hivi sasa, wasomi wa miaka hii nao wanajadili kitu kilekile na huenda mjadala ukaendelezwa na wasomi wa miongo kadhaa ijayo na kuendelea. Who knows! Lakini kama ni suala la "weakened America to emerge victorious against communist China" ama kinyume na hapo, muda utatupatia majibu sahihi. Tofauti na hapo, acha tuendelee tu kuuendeleza mjadala.

Asante!
 

MALCOM LUMUMBA

JF-Expert Member
Jul 26, 2012
17,440
2,000
Ninachotaka kusema ni kuwa, mjadala huu si jambo geni. Umekuwa ni mjadala wa kujirudia kila baada ya wakati fulani. Wasomi wa miaka ya 50 waliujadili, wasomi wa miaka ya 70-80 wakauendeleza mjadala. Na hivi sasa, wasomi wa miaka hii nao wanajadili kitu kilekile na huenda mjadala ukaendelezwa na wasomi wa miongo kadhaa ijayo na kuendelea. Who knows! Lakini kama ni suala la "weakened America to emerge victorious against communist China" ama kinyume na hapo, muda utatupatia majibu sahihi. Tofauti na hapo, acha tuendelee tu kuuendeleza mjadala.

Asante!
Uko sahihi kabisa lakini kitu kimoja ambacho nadhani unasahau kukisema kwa hayo mataifa yote ambayo yaliwahi kulinganishwa na Marekani: Ujerumani Magharibi, Umoja wa Kisovieti na Japan hazijawahi kuwa na uchumi mkubwa kuliko Marekani wala kumshinda nguvu ya soko. Umoja wa kisovieti katika ubora wake miaka ya 60's ilikuwa ni asilimia 30 hadi 40 ya GDP ya Marekani. Marekani alikuwa bora katika GDP, PPP na muuzaji mkubwa wa bidhaa na huduma.

Sasa tukichambua uchumi na historia, Marekani alikuwa taifa lenye nguvu duniani kiuchumi mwaka 1872 baada ya kuwa na PPP kubwa kuliko mataifa yote duniani. Hadi kufika mwaka 1900 PPP ikamuwezesha Marekani kuwa taifa lenye uchumi imara kuliko yote. Mwaka 2009 Uchina ndiyo likawa taifa lenye PPP kubwa kuliko Marekani, sasa nadhani tukizungumza Uchumi, PPP huleta faida kibao kwa taifa lolote duniani lile linalofuata mfumo wa soko huru.

Kingine ni kwamba Japan, USSR na Ujerumani Magharibi hayajawahi kuwa The Biggest Exporters of Merchandise hadi kuweza kumtishia Marekani. Mataifa ambayo yamewahi kushika hii nafasi ni Imperial Germany mwaka 1900 na Dola la Muingereza kabla ya 1900. Taifa linalokuwa tajiri kuliko yote duniani ni lile ambalo linauza bidhaa nyingi pamoja na huduma kuliko taifa jingine lolote lile duniani, Marekani imeshika nafasi hii tokea mwaka 1945. Mwaka 2014 IMF ikatangaza kwamba Uchina ndiyo The Greatest Exporter of Merchandise. Marekani amefika hapo alipo kwasababu ya soko lililojengwa kuanzia kipindi cha The Gilded Age na World Wars.

Nafurahi sana kwamba umewalete wakina Huntington na Hoffman: Sasa kama umesoma vizuri, matatizo haya yalianza na Charles De Gaulle baada ya Marekani kuachana na The Gold Standard na kuanza kutumia Fiat Money. Watu kama Charles De Gaulle wakasema kwamba Marekani imefilisika na utajiri wake wote umeisha: Wakina Huntington walifanya chambuzi wakizingatia hili.

Ukweli mchungu ni kwamba Marekani imefika miaka ya 80 ikiwa na hali mbaya sana kiuchumi na Ronald Raegan alikopa sana pesa kutoka taasisi za ndani na nchi za nje. Swali lao hawa wasomi wote ni hili: Siku mataifa makubwa yanaacha kutumia dollar (The Fiat Money) unadhani Marekani itapona ??? Swali hili halijatolewa majibu mpaka leo.

Hoja kubwa ya Graham T Allison, Kishore Mahbubani na Joseph Nye siyo The Decline of America kama wakina Huntington wanavyosema kwenye The Clash of Civilization, but rather The Relative Decline of America. Marekani anaweza kuwa na uchumi huu-huu ambao anao sasa lakini Uchina akiendelea kukua kwa kasi hii basi atakuwa na uchumi mkubwa mara mbili ya Marekani hadi kufika 2070. Suala zima la Relative Decline halikuguswa kabisa na Huntington wala Hoffman, kama kuna sehemu wamelizungumzia tuoneshane.

Ahsante sana.
 

Muuza viatu

JF-Expert Member
May 14, 2020
1,844
2,000
I recently watched a Symposium hosted by Central European University, and the speaker was none other than the eminent and legendary Joseph Nye from Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

The topic was about a new cloud in the horizon, a potential storm, The Rising China and the fate of the United States led global order established right after 1945.

He succinctly assured his audience that, despite all the setbacks and challenges cascading the Western World, America will eventually emerge as an undisputed master of the 21st Century ahead of China. But is it so ??? Well, let's delve into the corridors of history.

Professor Nye reiterated a position held dearly by typical American liberals, bureaucrats and technocrats: America is not only scientifically ahead of both China and Russia in terms of GDP, but also a custodian of all the cutting edge technologies that may prove disruptive, yet revolutionize mankind for centuries to come.

He boasted of America being ahead in critical research and nascent fields like Nano-technology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, space technology and medicine.

To an avid student of foreign relations, the statement sounds too familiar thou often under-looked by the Mainstream Media: President Xi Jinping on his "Chinese Rejuvenation Speech" of 2012 assured the Communist Party of China that by 2035 China will be a technological behemoth.

And really they have put up an effort in this thou abysmally low compared to that of the United States. In 2018 China scholars published more scientific works than the United States.

We may blush and shun these statistic, but the figures are enough to startle an ordinary thinking individual. Technology is pivotal to the development of any civilized society, let alone sustains the very fabric of the socio-economic and socio-political tenets of the modern state. It was technology that made morphed the 300 Germanic states led by Prussia into what came to be known as Imperial Germany in 1871.

Notable historians state that up until 1914 Great Britain and USA had 6000 and 20000 notable engineers respectively, while Imperial Germany had 60000 notable engineers.

Making a dialectical progression reflecting what I wrote, critics would argue and even some castigate my analogy, that China is not Imperial Germany which was a more democratic and a civilized state in the heart of Europe.

Such intellectuals are in open denial against the harsh realities of history: The Soviet Union being an authoritarian nation it was, used technology to transform a once ramshackle plutocracy headed by the Romanovs into a nuclear state that manhandled The dreaded Nazi War Machine (The Wehrmacht) during the Second World War.

The worse part is, Prof Michio Kaku says that unlike China, 50% of American Intellectuals with PhD's are foreign born, most of whom bear Green-Cards. All this being said and done, one point remains: Technology pays off.

More often than not, intellectuals like John Mearsheimer would make normally exclaim that America's role of throwing global powers like Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, The Former Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and The British Empire into the scrap heaps of history.

And like his counterpart Joseph Nye, he believes that America would sink deep into unprecedented levels to ensure that China is also thrown into a dustbin of history.

Kishore Mahbubani disagrees with such assurances, he reminds Americans like John Mearsheimer what George F Kenan (One of the architects of Containment Policy) used say: The success of America's foreign policy depends much on domestic spiritual vitality, reliable alliances and attitude of America as a superpower towards other nations. Kenan's advice is an anathema to Washington's political establishment, being precise to people like Donald J Trump.

From Kenan's assessment America would be sailing into uncharted waters when her domestic spiritual vitality has fallen short.

America has to be united both at home and across the Atlantic if she is to emerge victorious in The Great Game against China. Counter to this, some would argue that America has a very resilient political system which has taken lots of deadly blows in her 245 years life span.

The 19th and 20th Centuries American politics were haunted by an awful specter manifesting through surreal events like wars , slavery, assassinations and economic depressions.

Through it all even when divided at home as it is now, America dared to obliterate the Spanish-Empire in 1898 and made concessions to acquire Cuba and the Philippines from a declining European power.

But can a divided America, diminishing allies and vanishing economic prowess still stand tall against the Chinese Colossus ??? American Intellectuals like Graham T. Allison also from The Harvard Kennedy School of Government thinks not. Graham believes that China has already undertaken America in many aspects of development like infrastructure and international trade.

In his famous book Destined For War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap he makes a great point that, China may be ahead of America but that may not herald the fall of America.

Reinforcing this argument Kishore Mahbubani says China will win against America only in some aspects, because this world is multipolar and interdependent.

Graham goes further to advice both America and China to make painful adjustments in order to avert the possibility of a looming war.

One Graham's visible point from the entire book is The Thucydides Trap: A theory which explains that when a new nation arises to prominence threatening the status quo of the predominant power, then war is inevitable.

In our case the rising power is China and the predominant power is the USA, and the war will be The Third World War. Supporting his theory he gave historical example of this between Imperial Germany VS The British Empire, The Soviet Union Vs The United States, The British Empire Vs The United States, The Spanish Empire Vs England.

So to finish this piece, the late Prof Stephen Cohen said that a country's greatness is measured on how it responds to chaos within it's borders.

Things like outbreaks of disease, wars, natural disasters and economic shocks. Recently, the world borne witness of how America's ability to handle chaos has diminished, while some says it's Trump's fault but the reality is grin. Just look at Corona Outbreak, The raiding of the Capital, breakouts at Texas etc.

Saying America will still emerge a the undisputed master of the 21th Century is an overstatement that's in vogue.

Yet, realities paint a different picture: This global power struggle will adversely affect the position of Africa, but that's a topic for another day.
Dooo!!! Mchawi lugha
 

T14 Armata

JF-Expert Member
Mar 7, 2017
4,245
2,000
Kwangu naona US kaimarika zaidi kwenye systems zake za kidunia na kwa vile ndio muaisi wa Globalization bado anagusa kila sekta muhimu duniani na anahusika na kila kitu hata ambacho hakimuhusu. Sina rejea za wasomi ila nina sababu kama hizi:

Teknolojia zote.
US anaongoza kuwekeza kwenye tech mpya itakayoongoza dunia. Space inashindaniwa zaidi na makampuni ya Kimarekani kama SpaceX na Blue Origin. Nano technology na Artificial Intelligence bado US yuko mbele. Nchi zote zilizotawala au kuongoza dunia ziliongoza kiteknolojia, China bado.

Kwenye electronics.
Tukiachana na uzalishaji ambao umegusia hasa tuje kwenye nani anamiliki hizo teknolojia za uzalishaji. Mwaka jana US alipoiwekea Huawei vikwazo nikashangaa kuona TSMC ya Taiwan inayoongoza kwenye foundry duniani nayo imelazimika kuendana na vikwazo kwa kigezo cha kutumia core American technology. Kampuni za processors, mifumo ya kompyuta, etc nyingi zaidi ziko US au ziko modeled kwenye mfumo wa US. Huawei na Samsung ziko vile kwa sababu ya kutumia American technology, wao ndio wanaruhusu competition wakiamua wanazuia.

Utulivu wa ndani.
CCP ndio inaongoza China tangu 1940s, hawa hawajakomaa lolote kisiasa bali wanatumia intimidation na nguvu nyingi. US wamekomaa sana hata hizi issue za BLM ni utoto mbele ya utengamano wao. China ina matatizo na Taiwan na Hong Kong, haina demokrasia wala mifumo imara na inategemea uwezo wa aliyepo madarakani. Nchi isiyo na utulivu haiwezi kuwa superpower.

Usafirishaji.
Magari ya umeme bado US anaongoza ingawa kwa China kama kina Nio wanakuja kasi. Usafirishaji kwa ujumla bado US ana edge, hakuna kampuni ya China inaweza kuipindua Boeing. Pale US kuna kampuni nyingi za kijeshi zinaweza tengeneza ndege za kiraia ila China hakuna hata moja.

Energy.
US anajitosheleza kwenye energy kuliko China. Japan ilipigwa WW2 sababu mojawapo ikiwa ni kuzuiwa kusafirisha mafuta. US ina teknolojia mbadala kama fracking kwenye mafuta na ina washirika wa kuiuzia mafuta kwa uhakika. Kwenye nuclear energy bado US anaongoza tena hapo China hajaifikia Japan.

Mifumo ya fedha.
PayPal, MasterCard, VISA, etc tunajua ni za wapi. Hizo kina Alipay zinatumika ukouko China. $ inaongoza kutumiwa, haitishiwi na yeyote kwa sasa sio crypto, gold wala fedha ya nchi nyingine. Mwaka 2008 uchumi wa dunia uliyumba kwa sababu ya taasisi za Marekani, hii inamaanisha nguvu waliyonayo. China itafanya nini mpaka uchumi wa dunia utetereke? Tukiachana na magonjwa ambayo hata shit country inaweza yatoa dunia ikatetereka.

Kijeshi.
Bado China haijakaribia hata kuifikia Marekani. Bado inajaribu kumfikia Russia ila sidhani kama ni within this 20 years. US ana makumi ya bases dunia nzima, ana allies wengi sana na silaha za kutosha. China ina maadui kama India, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines na hata Australia.

Kimataifa.
China haijawa na ushawishi wa kuikaribia Marekani kwenye EU, Asia-Pacific wala Middle East. Huu ushawishi kwa Africa ni mdogo duniani. Mashirika ya kimataifa kama WB, IMF na UN nzima yamekaa Kimarekani zaidi.

China inaizidi Marekani mbali kwenye population. Ni soko la uhakika na nguvukazi kubwa ya uzalishaji. Pia hii idadi kubwa inatoa mchujo mzuri sana wa vipaji kukiwepo elimu stahiki. Bado hatujaona vyuo vya China vikifanya breakthrough kubwa kama zinazofanyika kwenye vyuo vya Marekani.

Sioni dalili yoyote kubwa ya China kuipiku Marekani. Dalili chache kama PPP zote ni kutokana na population ya China wala sio mbinu, uwezo wala mikakati.
Wamarekani wana tabia ya kuishusha na kuitia hofu nchi yao, sio kama Warusi wenye brags na Wachina wenye historia ya kujipa moyo. Bado US ni strong
 

MALCOM LUMUMBA

JF-Expert Member
Jul 26, 2012
17,440
2,000
Kwangu naona US kaimarika zaidi kwenye systems zake za kidunia na kwa vile ndio muaisi wa Globalization bado anagusa kila sekta muhimu duniani na anahusika na kila kitu hata ambacho hakimuhusu. Sina rejea za wasomi ila nina sababu kama hizi:

Teknolojia zote.
US anaongoza kuwekeza kwenye tech mpya itakayoongoza dunia. Space inashindaniwa zaidi na makampuni ya Kimarekani kama SpaceX na Blue Origin. Nano technology na Artificial Intelligence bado US yuko mbele. Nchi zote zilizotawala au kuongoza dunia ziliongoza kiteknolojia, China bado.

Kwenye electronics.
Tukiachana na uzalishaji ambao umegusia hasa tuje kwenye nani anamiliki hizo teknolojia za uzalishaji. Mwaka jana US alipoiwekea Huawei vikwazo nikashangaa kuona TSMC ya Taiwan inayoongoza kwenye foundry duniani nayo imelazimika kuendana na vikwazo kwa kigezo cha kutumia core American technology. Kampuni za processors, mifumo ya kompyuta, etc nyingi zaidi ziko US au ziko modeled kwenye mfumo wa US. Huawei na Samsung ziko vile kwa sababu ya kutumia American technology, wao ndio wanaruhusu competition wakiamua wanazuia.

Utulivu wa ndani.
CCP ndio inaongoza China tangu 1940s, hawa hawajakomaa lolote kisiasa bali wanatumia intimidation na nguvu nyingi. US wamekomaa sana hata hizi issue za BLM ni utoto mbele ya utengamano wao. China ina matatizo na Taiwan na Hong Kong, haina demokrasia wala mifumo imara na inategemea uwezo wa aliyepo madarakani. Nchi isiyo na utulivu haiwezi kuwa superpower.

Usafirishaji.
Magari ya umeme bado US anaongoza ingawa kwa China kama kina Nio wanakuja kasi. Usafirishaji kwa ujumla bado US ana edge, hakuna kampuni ya China inaweza kuipindua Boeing. Pale US kuna kampuni nyingi za kijeshi zinaweza tengeneza ndege za kiraia ila China hakuna hata moja.

Energy.
US anajitosheleza kwenye energy kuliko China. Japan ilipigwa WW2 sababu mojawapo ikiwa ni kuzuiwa kusafirisha mafuta. US ina teknolojia mbadala kama fracking kwenye mafuta na ina washirika wa kuiuzia mafuta kwa uhakika. Kwenye nuclear energy bado US anaongoza tena hapo China hajaifikia Japan.

Mifumo ya fedha.
PayPal, MasterCard, VISA, etc tunajua ni za wapi. Hizo kina Alipay zinatumika ukouko China. $ inaongoza kutumiwa, haitishiwi na yeyote kwa sasa sio crypto, gold wala fedha ya nchi nyingine. Mwaka 2008 uchumi wa dunia uliyumba kwa sababu ya taasisi za Marekani, hii inamaanisha nguvu waliyonayo. China itafanya nini mpaka uchumi wa dunia utetereke? Tukiachana na magonjwa ambayo hata shit country inaweza yatoa dunia ikatetereka.

Kijeshi.
Bado China haijakaribia hata kuifikia Marekani. Bado inajaribu kumfikia Russia ila sidhani kama ni within this 20 years. US ana makumi ya bases dunia nzima, ana allies wengi sana na silaha za kutosha. China ina maadui kama India, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines na hata Australia.

Kimataifa.
China haijawa na ushawishi wa kuikaribia Marekani kwenye EU, Asia-Pacific wala Middle East. Huu ushawishi kwa Africa ni mdogo duniani. Mashirika ya kimataifa kama WB, IMF na UN nzima yamekaa Kimarekani zaidi.

China inaizidi Marekani mbali kwenye population. Ni soko la uhakika na nguvukazi kubwa ya uzalishaji. Pia hii idadi kubwa inatoa mchujo mzuri sana wa vipaji kukiwepo elimu stahiki. Bado hatujaona vyuo vya China vikifanya breakthrough kubwa kama zinazofanyika kwenye vyuo vya Marekani.

Sioni dalili yoyote kubwa ya China kuipiku Marekani. Dalili chache kama PPP zote ni kutokana na population ya China wala sio mbinu, uwezo wala mikakati.
Wamarekani wana tabia ya kuishusha na kuitia hofu nchi yao, sio kama Warusi wenye brags na Wachina wenye historia ya kujipa moyo. Bado US ni strong
Ewaaah, wewe umeongea vitu muhimu sana na kuonesha mifano hai kabisa: Marekani iko mbele sana japo kitaalamu wanasema iko kwenye Relative Decline Phase. Sasa kwenye hoja yako nimeona mambo mengi ambayo ntayaweka kwenye makundi matatu, ili kuweza kuyachambua vizuri.

Mosi, The Western Institutional Advantage: Hapa tunazungumzia ushawishi wa taasisi kubwa za kimataifa ambazo aidha zilianzishwa kwa mchango au ushawishi wa Marekani. Mfano UN, IMF, WB, UE, WTO, NATO, TPP ambazo Marekani huzitumia kuendesha na kufanikisha mambo yake. Mbali na hapo, taasisi hizi zinaaminika sana na nchi mbalimbali za duniani kwasababu ya uwazi na mchango ambao zimetoa kwa nchi nyingi.

Pili, The Service Market: Uchina amemshinda Marekani kwenye uuzaji wa bidhaa (merchandise) na siyo huduma. Linapokuja suala la huduma, nadhani Marekani na Canada ndiyo wako mbele kuliko nchi zote duniani. Kila taasisi kubwa ambayo inatoa huduma aidha itakuwa ni ya Marekani, ina hisa za Marekani au inatumia Platform za kimarekani. Kama ulivyosema huduma za kimtandao (Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter), huduma za kielimu (Harvard, Stanford, Yale), burudani (Hollywood), usafirishaji (uber). Ikumbukwe haya makampuni kama Google yanatoa huduma dunia nzima bila kulipa kodi hivyo kumtajirisha sana Marekani.

Tatu, Military and Alliance Network: Marekani ana jeshi kubwa sana lenye nguvu japo sidhani kama yeye peke yake anaweza kumfanya Uchina jambo lolote kipindi hiki. Kinachombeba Marekani ni kwamba mpaka leo hii ana mikataba zaidi ya 60 ya ulinzi na mataifa mbalimbali duniani. Mikataba mikubwa ndiyo kama ile ya NATO, ANZUS, US-JAPAN na US-KOREA hivyo ana mkono mrefu kuliko Uchina.

Sasa suala la teknolojia mpya kama (Nano-Tech, AI)naomba niliweke hivi: Bado hizi teknolojia hazijaingia sokoni rasmi hata tufahamu mshindi ni nani. Hebu angalia mfano huu, wanasema teknolojia ya 5G ni ya kimapinduzi sana na muhimu sana katika kufanya tafiti za AI. Dunia ilitegemea Marekani angekuwa wa kwanza lakini bahati mbaya sana Uchina ndiyo anayeongoza mpaka sasa.

Kuhusu Huawei vikwazo vyote bado havijazuia kampuni kusonga mbele, na haimaanishi kwamba Uchina alikuwa hawezi kutengeneza Conductors. La hasha, yeye naye anaokoa gharama kubwa zitokanazo na tafiti na uzalishaji (Comparative Advantage). Lakini kubwa la kuliangalia ni kwamba Uchina ya leo imefika mahala pakubwa kiteknolojia kiasi kwamba hata baada ya mlipuko wa CORONA wao walikuwa moja kati ya nchi za kwanza kabisa duniani kufanikiwa kudhibiti ugonjwa na kutengeneza chanjo.

Mwisho kabisa, navyosema Relative Decline namaanisha nini: Kwamba wewe mkuu T14 Armata unaweza ukawa ndiyo mtu mrefu sana Tanzania mwenye futi 8. Lakini akatokea MALCOM LUMUMBA akawa ana futi 9, hili halimaanishi wewe ni mfupi bali wewe ni mfupi kuliko MALCOM LUMUMBA. Hivyo Marekani ni taifa lenye nguvu na mifumo yake ni imara sana lakini ukweli mchungu ni kwamba kuna sehemu nyingi ambazo ameanza kuachwa na Uchina kutokana na ukuaji wa kasi wa Uchina.

NB: Masuala ya nishati hasahasa Fracking (The Shale Revolution) are undisputed, America has energy security.
Lakini suala la Ukubwa wa PPP kuchangiwa pekee na wingi wa watu nadhani halijakaa sawa sana hivyo lipitie upya.
 

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