Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

[Simple]

I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

 

[Watu8]

CCM: around 5 million
Chadema\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

Swali jepesi tu kwako...

Je Zitto ana kigezo cha umri kumruhusu kuwa mgombea Urais 2015?

 

[kbm]

Zitto!
"Kwa upande wangu sina imani tena na zitto namuona kama maji kwenye moto uliowashwa kumuangamiza nyoka anayetesa na kutafuna vijusi vidogo visivyo na hatia".

 

[Tindo]

Kwa jinsi ulivyomalizia uzi wako wewe mleta mada unaonekana kama unajishuku hivi. Hiyo mifano unayotolea kuhusu Kenya sidhani kama ungeitolea kwenye upande wa maendeleo.

Ni hivi hapa naona kama umekuja kuandaa watu kisaikolojia kwamba Ukawa watashindwa na unalazimisha sababu iwe ni Zitto.

Kama kweli unachokisema ni hicho mbona hao CHADEMA hawakushinda urais 2010 wakati Zitto akiwa bado cdm?

Umeweka na idadi kabisa ya wapiga kura kwa mujibu wa mtazamo wako, lakini ukiangalia ni kama vile mada yako inalazimisha kwamba bila Zitto basi Ukawa hawawezi kushinda urais!!

Hivi ni nani unaweza kumdaganya tena kwa hisia za kwamba bila Zitto CHADEMA hakuna. Wote wanaomini mtazamo wako wanatoka ccm na kwao ni faraja bila uhalisia.

Naomba nikupe mfano mrahisi wa karibuni, hivi majuzi kumefanyika uchaguzi wa serekali za mitaa, ukiachia mbali zoezi kuendeshwa kwa hila na mapungufu mengi, CHADEMA wamezoa viti vingi sana bila mchango wowote wa Zitto.

Sasa nashangaa unalazimisha data za mwaka 2010 unaacha za hivi karibuni kabisa na madhara yake kwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao.

Kama ni kweli usemacho nilitarajia uchaguzi huu uliopita miezi michache ndio ingekuwa sehemu ya wewe kujengea hoja na sio mwaka 2010 ambapo hata aina ya matokeo yalipatikana kwa vitisho na ugomvi mkubwa.

Kama unataka kumtetea Zitto wewe mtetee kwa njia nyingine na sio zaidi ya hapo.

 

[Zanzibar-ASP]

Poor analysis and calculation.
Why?
1/Zitto Kabwe was never been a costant factor for winning of CCM or CHADEMA in any presidental race, so it is not right to compare with Willium Ruto.

2/CHADEMA is more powerful and Popular than any Individual part member of CHADEMA. That why CHADEMA fired Kaborou, Zitto ets and still remained stable and popular.

3/CHADEMA in Kigoma was there before Zitto Kabwe, and still more popular than Zitto Kabwe, now and before. To prove that go to 2010 General Election results.

4/UKAWA is collition agenda from different Parties not a single person that why it hits the nation in every angle.

 

[Larusai Mux]

Good analysis ila umekosea ulivyompa zzk 1.5 ml votes!..bila kujua washangiliagi wengi unaowaona upande wa zzk ni wapambe wa ccm,pia umesahau kuweka idadi ya kura ya either toka 2010 chadema imeloose au imegain and ccm,cuf nccr too!..,pia hujaweza kutoa makadirio ya kura za 2015 za ukawa as organization zaid ya kudili na chadema tu!,
Umetumia sana qualitative methods dhani quantitative methods,imeipa ccm 4mil permanent votes bila kuchek kwa makin tofauti matokeo ya 2005,2010 ili upate time treand series analysis nzuri kwa 2015!.
Ni vyema pia ukaweka maanani kwa factors muhimu zilizo na zinazobadilika km
1.techology eg simu,na mawasiliano effects kwa voters to ccm vs ukawa
2.Ages and deaths effects kwa voters to ccm vs ukawa
3.political situations to voters to ccm vs ukaw
4.nk,nk,nk

Logic

 

[Simple]

Poor analysis and calculation.
Why?
1/Zitto Kabwe was never been a costant factor for winning of CCM or CHADEMA in any presidental race, so it is not right to compare with Willium Ruto.

2/CHADEMA is more powerful and Popular than any Individual part member of CHADEMA. That why CHADEMA fired Kaborou, Zitto ets and still remained stable and popular.

3/CHADEMA in Kigoma was there before Zitto Kabwe, and still more popular than Zitto Kabwe, now and before. To prove that go to 2010 General Election results.

4/UKAWA is collition agenda from different Parties not a single person that why it hits the nation in every angle.

I have doubts with point number 2 and 3.
Its impossible to challenge Mbowe at Chadema, nobody will dare to do it,,not Lissu not Mnyika. They have seen and learnt what happens when you do it: Lets be honest there:Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema,period:

Popularity of Chadema in Kigoma has been after their people.( Kaborou and Zitto). You can see already why ACT is gaining popularity there,,sababu they support their own.

Follow closely political history of Ruto and that of Zitto, similarities are clearly there🙁 Political Confidence)

 

[Simple]

Kwa jinsi ulivyomalizia uzi wako wewe mleta mada unaonekana kama unajishuku hivi. Hiyo mifano unayotolea kuhusu Kenya sidhani kama ungeitolea kwenye upande wa maendeleo. Ni hivi hapa naona kama umekuja kuandaa watu kisaikolojia kwamba Ukawa watashindwa na unalazimisha sababu iwe ni Zitto. Kama kweli unachokisema ni hicho mbona hao cdm hawakushinda urais 2010 wakati Zitto akiwa bado cdm? Umeweka na idadi kabisa ya wapiga kura kwa mujibu wa mtazamo wako, lakini ukiangalia ni kama vile mada yako inalazimisha kwamba bila Zitto basi Ukawa hawawezi kushinda urais!! Hivi ni nani unaweza kumdaganya tena kwa hisia za kwamba bila Zitto cdm hakuna. Wote wanaomini mtazamo wako wanatoka ccm na kwao ni faraja bila uhalisia.

Naomba nikupe mfano mrahisi wa karibuni, hivi majuzi kumefanyika uchaguzi wa serekali za mitaa, ukiachia mbali zoezi kuendeshwa kwa hila na mapungufu mengi, cdm wamezoa viti vingi sana bila mchango wowote wa Zitto. Sasa nashangaa unalazimisha data za mwaka 2010 unaacha za hivi karibuni kabisa na madhara yake kwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao. Kama ni kweli usemacho nilitarajia uchaguzi huu uliopita miezi michache ndio ingekuwa sehemu ya wewe kujengea hoja na sio mwaka 2010 ambapo hata aina ya matokeo yalipatikana kwa vitisho na ugomvi mkubwa. Kama unataka kumtetea Zitto wewe mtetee kwa njia nyingine na sio zaidi ya hapo.

Ndugu Tindo,

By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu:

Ukawa watashindwa kwa sababu hizi:
- zitto
-kutokupata wapiga kura wapya🙁new voters)
-Tamaa za viongozi wa Ukawa

UKAWA hawatashindwa sababu ya CCM:

 

[Larusai Mux]

I have doubts with point number 2 and 3.
Its impossible to challenge Mbowe at Chadema, nobody will dare to do it,,not Lissu not Mnyika. They have seen and learnt what happens when you do it: Lets be honest there:Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema,period:

Popularity of Chadema in Kigoma has been after their people.( Kaborou and Zitto). You can see already why ACT is gaining popularity there,,sababu they support their own.

Follow closely political history of Ruto and that of Zitto, similarities are clearly there🙁 Political Confidence)

"'mbowe is chadema,and chadema is mbowe'',,you ar too wrong bro!..,this is new episode never seen in Tz political arena,nw it is "UKAWA",muunganiko wa 4 political parties having mp's all around tz!..,washangiliaji wa zzk ni ccm as ''adui mwombee njaa'' for chadema,,
zzk ana washangiliaji tuu,wrong analysis.,

 

[Mathias Lyamunda]

Na Nyie na Zitto wenu tumewachoka.

 

[Mathias Lyamunda]

I have doubts with point number 2 and 3.
Its impossible to challenge Mbowe at Chadema, nobody will dare to do it,,not Lissu not Mnyika. They have seen and learnt what happens when you do it: Lets be honest there:Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema,period:

Popularity of Chadema in Kigoma has been after their people.( Kaborou and Zitto). You can see already why ACT is gaining popularity there,,sababu they support their own.

Follow closely political history of Ruto and that of Zitto, similarities are clearly there🙁 Political Confidence)

Wewe ni mfuasi wa Zitto hauna lolote. Analysis yako iko shallow mno.

 

[Larusai Mux]

Ndugu Tindo,

By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu:

Ukawa watashindwa kwa sababu hizi:
- zitto
-kutokupata wapiga kura wapya🙁new voters)
-Tamaa za viongozi wa Ukawa

UKAWA hawatashindwa sababu ya CCM:

Kumbe kweli hukuja kutoa uchambuzi bali kulazimisha kuwa ukawa bila zzk haitashinda!...
Uchaguz wa s/m is too critical to determine general election as to measure chama kinakubalika namna gan mitaani kwa wanainchi wa kawaida!..
Poor analyst

 

[Simple]

"'mbowe is chadema,and chadema is mbowe'',,you ar too wrong bro!..,this is new episode never seen in Tz political arena,nw it is "UKAWA",muunganiko wa 4 political parties having mp's all around tz!..,washangiliaji wa zzk ni ccm as ''adui mwombee njaa'' for chadema,,
zzk ana washangiliaji tuu,wrong analysis.,

Vyama vya upinzania vimeshawahi kuungana before in Tanzania,,nothing is new there: Walivunjika sababu ya tamaa za viongozi wa vyama vya upinzani:
UKAWA was formed in order to oppose the new proposed katiba,,and not kwa ajili ya uchaguzi mkuu: They have to sit down and draw new strategy: Jinsi ya kuchagua mgombea uraisi; Wabunge: rasilimali za kampeni: It will be tough:

ZZK ana uwezo wa kujieleza na kueleweka na mwananchi wa kawaida: Now Chadema has to fight both, CCM and Zitto.

Yes I said, Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema..same kama ACT is Zitto and Zitto is ACT. bythe way,,Zitto only learnt this from his tutor(Mbowe).

 

[Larusai Mux]

umekosea ulivyompa zzk 1.5 ml votes!..bila kujua washangiliagi wengi unaowaona upande wa zzk ni wapambe wa ccm,pia umesahau kuweka idadi ya kura ya either toka 2010 chadema imeloose au imegain and ccm,cuf nccr too!..,pia hujaweza kutoa makadirio ya kura za 2015 za ukawa as organization zaid ya kudili na chadema tu!,
Umetumia sana qualitative methods dhani quantitative methods,imeipa ccm 4mil permanent votes bila kuchek kwa makin tofauti matokeo ya 2005,2010 ili upate time treand series analysis nzuri kwa 2015!.
Ni vyema pia ukaweka maanani kwa factors muhimu zilizo na zinazobadilika km

1.techology eg simu,na mawasiliano effects kwa voters to ccm vs ukawa

2.Ages and deaths effects kwa voters to ccm vs ukawa

3.political situations to voters to ccm vs ukaw

4.nk,nk,nk

Logic

 

[Claudio]

Kiingereza kwako ni shida si uandike tu Kiswahili. Unajua tofauti ya loose na lose?

 

[Simple]

Kumbe kweli hukuja kutoa uchambuzi bali kulazimisha kuwa ukawa bila zzk haitashinda!...
Uchaguz wa s/m is too critical to determine general election as to measure chama kinakubalika namna gan mitaani kwa wanainchi wa kawaida!..
Poor analyst

Please make your NOT poor analysis: POLITICS IS A GAME: To win it you have to have a strategy, CCM has a strategy year after year thats why they are winning,,not because they are popular or people like them: I gave you three reasons why UKAWA watashindwa,,not having Zitto on board is one of them,,zipo nyingi tu sababu:

 

[Larusai Mux]

Please make your NOT poor analysis: POLITICS IS A GAME: To win it you have to have a strategy, CCM has a strategy year after year thats why they are winning,,not because they are popular or people like them: I gave you three reasons why UKAWA watashindwa,,not having Zitto on board is one of them,,zipo nyingi tu sababu:

ifike pahala tusichangie posts za ACT,ni kupotezeana muda ,gaining nothing

 

[Bobuk]

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate.

Very interesting in deed! Eti kama Lipumba au Slaa atagombea urais wa JMT basi Zitto angekuwa running mate! Oooh Gosh my foot.

Wewe utakuwa ni MRUNDI unayejiita MUHA ndiyo maana hujui hata katiba ya JMT.

 

[Simple]

Wewe ni mfuasi wa Zitto hauna lolote. Analysis yako iko shallow mno.

Mimi ni mfuasi wa Tanzania: Muumini wa haki na demokrasia. Tafadhari fanya analysis yako iliyo deep ili nijifunze kutoka kwako.

 

[imanihope]

I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

If course yes
Good idea brother