[h=1]Mitt Romney's 'firing people' blunder offers gift to rivals on eve of primary[/h] Republican frontrunner's statement that 'I like being able to fire people' likely to be seized on in attack ads
Mitt Romney makes calls to likely voters at his campaign headquarters in New Hampshire. His comment about 'firing people' coincides with rival campaign ads labelling him a heartless corporate raider. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney offered his political rivals a gift on Monday when he volunteered that he liked firing people an unfortunate remark just as his opponents launched millions of dollars in campaign ads labelling him a heartless corporate raider.
Speaking on the eve of Tuesday's Republican primary in New Hampshire, he said: "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me." He was referring not to making workers redundant but defending the free market, the ability to swap providers if service is poor. But, given the cynical way ads have been distorted so far in the 2012 campaign, there is a strong chance his remarks will be seized upon for use in attack ads, using just the words "I like being able to fire people".
It is a potential election bonus not just for the Democratic party but for the remaining Republicans in the race for the party's nominations. It came as supporters of one of Romney's fiercest and angriest Republican rivals, former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich, released a trailer for an ad which will cost a staggering $3.4m to air. The ad paid for by one of the new breed of super political action committees (super PACs), which have unrestricted spending limits as a result of a supreme court ruling details the devastation allegedly caused by layoffs in firms taken over by Romney when he was chief executive of the Bain investment company.
The ad is revenge for Gingrich, who was on the receiving end of a $3.5m ad onslaught in Iowa by Romney and his super PAC over the Christmas and New Year period that helped demolish Gingrich's poll lead in the state.
New Hampshire goes to the polls on Tuesday in the first of a series of primaries to be held following last week's Iowa caucuses. The overall winner takes on Barack Obama for the White House in November. Romney, recording 41% in a University of New Hampshire poll a clear lead is on course to add New Hampshire to his narrow win in Iowa. In the fight for second place, Texas congressman Ron Paul is on 17%, with Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and the most moderate of the conservatives in the race, enjoying a late surge to tie with Rick Santorum, the most deeply conservative candidate in the race, on 11%. Gingrich is on 8% and the Texas governor Rick Perry is on 1%.
New Hampshire was always a foregone conclusion but the next contest, South Carolina, is shaping up as a bruiser. The state is deeply conservative, which is not natural territory for Romney, and might favour opponents such as Gingrich and Santorum.
Gingrich's ad, which runs to 25 minutes, is being targeted just at voters in South Carolina. When Mitt Romney Came To Town describes how Romney and his Bain company allegedly raided smaller firms and destroyed the American dream for thousands of Americans and their families. The trailer for the ad says: "Nothing was spared, nothing mattered but greed Mitt Romney became chief executive officer of Bain Capital the day the company was formed. His mission: to reap massive rewards for himself and his investors. For tens of thousands of Americans, the suffering began when Mitt Romney came to town." The $3.4m from the super PAC Winning Our Future will allow Gingrich to swamp the airwaves in South Carolina, where ads are much cheaper than in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
The Democratic national committee, which has been targeting Romney for months in expectation that he will be the eventual winner, put out a web video on Monday disputing Romney's claim that he created 100,000 jobs while at Bain Capital. Romney's opponents have repeatedly said that the 100,000 does not take account of the numbers he laid off. Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney's spokesman, counters that many more than 100,000 were created but the number comes down to 100,000 after the layoffs have been deducted.
The Wall Street Journal has analysed the 77 companies Bain invested in, concluding that it was a mixed bag, with 22% filing for bankruptcy and an additional 8% getting into so much trouble they lost all the money invested by Bain.
Speaking at the chamber of commerce in Nashua, where he made the "firing" remark, Romney continued the theme he has been pursuing in recent days, trying to switch the view of him from heartless businessman to just an ordinary Joe. He told the hundreds present at the breakfast he had not, as was wrongly assumed, started at the top. "I think some people imagine I went directly to the top level," he said. "I started off at the entry level."
In companies such as the stationery giant Staples, he claimed he had been up all night stacking shelves for the first store in the chain to open. On Sunday, pursuing the same theme, he said he could relate to people worried about receiving a "pink slip". But that has rung hollow with voters well aware that he comes from a family with millions of dollars behind them and that he himself, at least now, has a personal fortune of upwards of $200m.
[h=1]Jon Huntsman hopes for late surge in moderate New Hampshire[/h] Republican presidential candidate aiming to take advantage of perceived extremism of some of his rivals
Jon Huntsman speaks to voters as his wife Mary Kaye listens at Crosby's Bakery during a campaign stop in Nashua, New Hampshire. Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty
Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman is hoping for a late surge in support in the New Hampshire primary from independents dismayed by what they see as the extremism of some of his rivals.
Republican moderates and independents attending Huntsman campaign events over the last 24 hours expressed alarm over views expressed by candidates such as Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Rick Perry.
New Hampshire, which holds the first primary of the Republican race on Tuesday, could be the last stand for Huntsman, who opted against competing in the Iowa caucuses, seeing little chance of support among the state's social conservatives. Instead he has devoted himself to New Hampshire, where he has held 160 campaign events.
Anything less than a second place finish would amount to failure for him, and might seem him quit the race.
The Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, has a clear lead, though it is shrinking, according to a poll for WMUR-TV. But the second place battle is tightening, with Paul on 20% and Huntsman climbing to 13%. Gingrich is on 11% and Santorum on 10%. Perry's support is almost non-existent, running at about 1%.
Huntsman did a tour of diners and bakeries on his last full day of campaign, following the time-tested strategy of political operatives of choosing small locations, with the inevitable overflow of supporters and the media to create an impression for television pictures of a candidate being mobbed.
On Sunday night, at a meeting in Bedford, 45-year-old Katherine Philbin, an independent, said after hearing Huntsman speak: "I will vote for him. I like him because he is not extreme."
Independents, who make up a big pool of voters in New Hampshire, can vote in the primary, as well as Republicans. Philbin expressed concern over the lack of moderates in the Republican field.
"I would never vote for Rick Perry, not in 1,000 years. I do not think he is very intelligent. He just did not strike me as a person with a lot of brains. His debate performances were so bad," she said.
Outside of Crosby's bakery, Nashua, a campaign stop on Tuesday, Bill Mauser, 70, shared Philbin's concerns about the Republican candidates.
He too intends to vote for Huntsman. "Rick Perry and Rick Santorum's views are a bit too extreme for my liking. This is the only candidate I can connect with," Mauser said.
According to the polls, about 40% of likely voters are still undecided, offering hope of a last-minute surge for Huntsman.
[h=1]New Hampshire primary results - live coverage[/h] • Exit polls show win for Mitt Romney in New Hampshire
• Fox News project a second place for Ron Paul
• Signs emerge of a dirty fight in South Carolina • Follow the numbers on our live-updating results page
This page will update automatically every minute: On | Off
Supporters celebrate as Mitt Romney is named winner of the New Hampshire primary. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
9.31pm:Ewen MacAskill sums up the mood at Romney party headquarters thus:
Other reporters at the Romney celebrations describe his supporters as "pumped up" and "delirious". And supporters leaving after Romney's speech were declaring themselves to be ecstatic. But to me it did not seem that big a deal, at least not in comparison with the atmosphere at similar Obama victory speeches in 2008.
Here's why Ewen is right to be sceptical: Republican turnout was actually down compared with 2008, suggesting that there isn't a huge groundswell of enthusiasm out there. It may be that Romney actually gets more or less the same number of votes as he got in 2008. 9.20pm:Ron Paul was talking to a very, very enthusiastic crowd just now. He only has to give the word and Ben Bernanke will be defenestrated. 9.10pm: Stuart Millar is in Manchester at the election party of Jon Huntsman, where supporters are in subdued mood following the former ambassador's projected third place.
At Jon Huntsman's packed primary night party in the Black Brimmer pub, Manchester, supporters were struggling to put a brave face on his third place finish. As the result filtered out to the boisterous crowd, a few started chanting "Country first", the Huntsman slogan.
"I'm disappointed and relieved," said Connie from Manchester, who would only give her first name. "A few weeks ago I would have been happy with third, but I had started to think he might come second." But she believes that Huntsman is right to stay in the race. "He absolutely should keep going. He's starting to get traction now, and he wasn't getting it at all before."
Brendan Powers, a 28-year-old history teacher from Peabody, Massachusetts, agreed: "He's the only sane person in the race. He has to keep going, even though he will get crushed in South Carolina. But he's just prepping for 2016 and he'll come back stronger."
He insisted third place in New Hampshire was a decent result: "He's always said he wanted to outperform market expectations and he has done that tonight, even though he's barely managed it."
Powers, who said he had started supporting Huntsman after becoming disillusioned with Barack Obama. But when the inevitable happens and Huntsman drops out, would he vote for Mitt Romney? "I would have to dwell on that," he said.
9.00pm: The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt is at Ron Paul's watch party, where the mood is jubilant after the exit polls suggest a strong second place for the Republican maverick.
Ron Paul's results party at the Executive Court, near Manchester, is warming up quickly with about 400 people packed into the venue.
A spontaneous chant of "President Paul" broke out just now, with star-spangled banners and Ron Paul paraphernalia being waved aloft – only for a campaign official to ask that the banners be lowered to allow television cameras a view of the stage.
Joan Bastek, 47, was loitering beside the free buffet with a big smile on her face. "This is great," she said, clarifying that he was referring to the atmosphere. "I think he'll do great."
But can he beat Romney? "Yes, I think he can. This is so much better than 2008. I think [the polls] are wrong. They've been wrong before."
Brandon Ashley, 28, was wearing a white Ron Paul baseball cap. "It's gonna be close," he said. "If he doesn't win, there's now a clear movement, and I would consider that a win, people realising that Ron Paul is a viable candidate."
8.50pm: The Guardian has correspondents at the results parties of the top three placed candidates. Let's get the mood at all of them, starting with Ewen MacAskill at the Mitt Romney event.
The Romney campaign is celebrating in the dining centre of at a university campus on the outskirts of Manchester. Although it looks noisy and crowded on television – the main purpose for these things – it was strangely subdued, partly because of tight restrictions on entry. The Romney campaign blamed fire marshals for restricting the numbers.
Romney supporters said they were undismayed by the attacks on the candidates in recent days over his time as chief executive at Bain Capital, laying off thousands of workers. Terry Stewart, 53), who runs a small business and lives in Hudson, New Hampshire, was among those denied entry and was heading for home. But it did not dampen her enthusiasm for the candidate.
"I think he is the best person to turn the country round," she said. As for Bain company, she was unconcerned. "This is what business is about. As a small business owner, I know we have to make hard decisions to turn a company round."
Romney as a Mormon does not drink either coffee or alcohol. Journalists, though, had access to both.
8.43pm: Interesting point: back in 2008, John McCain won the New Hampshire primary with 38% of the vote. Can Romney beat that?
With 22% of the precincts in, Romney's on 35%, just 10 points ahead of Ron Paul on 25%. If that gap erodes, Romney's victory looks less and less impressive. 8.40pm:Mitt Romney is on stage now and milking, as you'd expect, veering between Reaganesque shining-cities-on-the-hills and Obama-bashing.
"President Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial and in the last few days we've seen a few desperate Republicans willing to help him," says Romney, in rather a dull monotone.
Mitt is just giving the Mitt Romney General Election Speech, with plenty of nonsense about Obama being a Euro-socialist. We may be hearing this many many times between now and November, so get used to it. 8.30pm: So for the second week in a row Rick Santorum is locked in an epic, too-tight-to-call, contest. Except that last time it was with Mitt Romney for first place in Iowa. Tonight it's for fourth place against Newt Gingrich. A week really is a long time in politics.
At the moment Gingrich is ahead by 77 votes. So it's just like Iowa, except that it isn't.
Ron Paul in Manchester, New Hampshire. Photograph: Andrew Burton/Getty Images 8.24pm: The slowcoaches at CNN are now also projecting that Ron Paul gets the silver medal and Huntsman comes third, a good 20 minutes after Fox News did the same thing. 8.21pm: The Guardian's Gary Younge emails to ask: "When's the last time a Republican nominee won both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested campaign?"
According to AP, "A Romney victory would make him the first Republican to sweep the first two contests in a competitive race since Iowa gained the lead-off spot in presidential campaigns in 1976."
But the records show that in 1976, Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, so I'm not sure what Romneyesque word play AP means exactly. 8.14pm: CNN has some more detail on its exit polls and this is more interesting: according to the exits, Mitt Romney gets 36%. Underwhelming if not awful. Among Republican voters alone Romney got 45% so that's better, in terms of making headway with winning over Republicans grassroots. 8.00pm:As the poll close, Fox News and CNN have called the New Hampshire race for Mitt Romney. Fox is projecting a "significant" win, and that Ron Paul will finished second, and Jon Hunstman third.
Fox News is also calling Rick Perry a big fat loser and finishing last. So as far as Fox is concerned, the big drama is whether Gingrich or Santorum will finish fourth. Seriously. 7.58pm: Proof that Mitt Romney is going downhill:
Another win for Buzzfeed Politics. As Butch Cassidy once said: Who are these guys? 7.52pm: With 5% of precincts counted, so far President Obama is floundering with a mere 73% of the vote, followed by a candidate named Total Write-Ins with 15%. Somewhere, Obama campaign boss Bill Burton is already giving off-the-record briefings to Politico, saying that Total Write-Ins is "a kook" with ties to Ralph Nader and Dennis Kucinich. 7.49pm: Staples ads are currently running on Fox News during its primary coverage – so that's another Super Pac for Romney I suppose.
(Staples was one of the companies funded by Bain Capital while Romney was chief executive, when Romney wasn't between diving into a Scrooge McDuck-style swimming pool full of money from downsizing and outsourcing.) 7.47pm: The Guardian's Stuart Millar reports an "air of anticipation" at the Jon Huntsman watch party in New Hampshire.
7.40pm: Who would want to be chair in history at the University of Southern New Hampshire after reading this tweet from a Washington Post blogger?
Aaron Blake @FixAaron
Congrats on the University of Southern New Hampshire for finding the most uncomfortable chairs in history. Dying in Romney filing center.
Oh, not that sort of chair. Carry on. 7.39pm: The first actual results are coming in from places were polls closed earlier. Mitt Romney has steamed ahead with results from the first three precincts showing him on 38%, followed by Ron Paul with 23%, Jon Huntsman with 16%, Newt Gingrich with 11% and Rick Santorum on 9%.
Early days! That's three out of 301 precincts. 7.32pm: We have live updating results from New Hampshire – and a recap of the Iowa poll – here. 7.14pm: In the traditional manner of American elections, the television networks and the Associated Press will call the result when they have enough information from the count to match their exit polls and forecasting.
In case like this one, my guess is that the networks will call the primary for Mitt Romney within nanoseconds of the polls closing at 8pm ET. That's usually the end of things. But not tonight.
Brian Stelter
✔
@brianstelter
Network execs privately say they expect to be able to call NH for Romney at 8pm sharp. The race for 2nd will take longer.
7.12pm: Our contest to predict the result of the Iowa caucuses was such a runaway success that we have decided to repeat it tonight. I can reveal that among the prizes is a "Why Women Love Rick Santorum" button badge, as well as the obligatory Guardian pencil. Take part now.
Placards in Manchester, New Hampshire. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images 7.03pm: To make sense of the result tonight, think of it as four individual elections: 1. Mitt Romney versus Mitt Romney
Will Romney 2012 edition do better than the Romney 2008 edition? In 2008 Mitt got 32%, finishing second to John McCain. If he repeats that result then he is in trouble. 2. Ron Paul versus Jon Huntsman
Jon Huntsman desperately needs a second place finish to stay credible and win some airtime, and to do so he needs to overtake Ron Paul. Paul flattered to deceive in Iowa, consistantly polling second but finishing third. Will he do so again? And does Paul have a 20% ceiling that he just can't break in terms of support? 3. Rick Santorum versus Newt Gingrich
A fifth place finish would be a disaster for Santorum, since it would reinforce the idea that his Iowa result was a one-off, thanks to the conservative eco-system of Iowa and his focus there, and nothing to do with Santorum as a possible candidate. Gingrich too needs to do better, to show that his Occupy Mitt Romney routine carries any weight with Republican voters. 4. Rick Perry versus Buddy Roemer
Perry had a miserable result in Iowa and according to the polls is due for an even worse result this time out. Maybe he should have stayed in Texas. If he loses to the submarine-profiled Buddy Roemer then the voices calling on him to quit will grow louder, even before South Carolina.
Polls don't officially close until 8pm but many will have closed at 7pm – and the exit polls are starting to come through, so here we go. 7.00pm: It's New Hampshire primary result night – and you could cut the tension with a baseball bat. As Newt Gingrich would say, let's be frank: barring an upset of apocalyptic proportions Mitt Romney not only has this in the bag but is already half-way to South Carolina.
But politics is a complex beast and just winning in New Hampshire isn't enough – it's by how much and over who that makes tonight's results important.
We could speculate on the possibilities of Romney losing but they are so slim that we may as well discuss the awesomeness of unicorns.
For the candidates not named Romney, it's not the winning but the taking part that counts.
[h=1]Republican candidates chase Mitt Romney in South Carolina[/h] If Romney wins in the south next week, his nomination is all but locked up which is why the rest of the pack is throwing everything they've got at him
Rick Perry, who skipped New Hampshire to focus on South Carolina, poses the owner of Brock's Department Store in Pickens, South Carolina. The stuffed bear was killed by Brock's son. Photograph: Rainier Ehrhardt/REUTERS
Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney predicted his party rivals will throw everything at him to prevent him delivering a knockout blow in next week's South Carolina primary.
Having won the New Hampshire on Tuesday night and the Iowa caucuses the previous week, the first Republican non-incumbent to do the double, he is well placed to effectively wrap up the nomination in South Carolina and face Barack Obama in November.
But his rivals are preparing to devote millions of dollars in ads to issues ranging from his tenure at Bain Capital, branding him a vulture capitalist, and abortion, a vote-losing issue in deeply conservative South Carolina. His Mormonism is also likely to feature, a religion viewed with suspicion among Christian evangelicals.
One of his biggest opponents, former House speaker Newt Gingrich, acknowledged that South Carolina is the make-or-break state, the last chance to stop Romney. Gingrich, talking about his own chances, described South Carolina as "a must-win" state.
Romney won easily in New Hampshire with 39% of the vote, his nearest rival, Texas congressman Ron Paul, pulled 23%, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman 17%, Gingrich 9.4%, former senator Rick Santorum 9.3% and Texas governor Rick Perry 0.7%.
It was a strong performance for Paul, whose campaign against US intervention abroad is resonating with young voters, but a bad night for Huntsman, the most moderate candidate in the field who had staked everything on a second-place finish. It was an especially poor performance by Santorum, who narrowly took second place in Iowa but whose anti-gay, traditional family values message failed to connect in more liberal New Hampshire.
Romney, in a round of interviews on Wednesday morning, accused his opponents of doing Obama's work for him by hammering him over Bain Capital, where he says he created 100,000 new jobs but where his rivals say he laid off tens of thousands of others in order to maximise profits.
In his most acidic response on the issue, Romney accused his rivals of helping to get the president re-elected. "I understand that president Obama is going to put free enterprise on trial and I realise that Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry are going to be witnesses for the prosecution," Romney told CNN.
The portrayal of Romney as a heartless capitalist could be dangerous for him in South Carolina, where the unemployment rate is almost double that of New Hampshire and Iowa, and higher than the national average.
Dangerous, too, is his previous support for choice on abortion when he was campaigning to be governor of Massachusetts, one of the most liberal states in the country. Gingrich's campaign is running ads in South Carolina about Romney's former abortion stance.
Romney, asked if he was worried about how this will play in South Carolina, said: "I am not worried in the slightest. Like Ronald Reagan, I have changed from pro-choice to pro-life. I know Speaker Gingrich is going to throw everything at me."
In a sign of the nastiness to come in South Carolina ahead of the 21 January vote, the pro-Romney super political action committee, Restore Our Future, which has raised millions of dollars in campaign funds, has paid for two flyers to counter Gingrich, claiming he co-sponsored a bill with Democrats to fund abortions in China through the United Nations Population Fund.
Although the primary is more than a week away, with so much at stake, Romney and the others have already headed for the state to begin campaigning and opening new offices. Perry was already there, having skipped New Hampshire to get a head start in South Carolina, where he described Romney as a "vulture capitalist".
Romney's two wins give him momentum going into South Carolina. There have been few polls so far, but the Real Clear Politics website, averaging them out, puts Romney ahead with 31% to Santorum's 21%, Gingrich's 20%, Paul's 11%, Perry's 5% and Huntsman's 2%.
Romney also has a big fund advantage, having taken in $25m in the last quarter, easily outstripping his rivals. On top of that, his super political action committee, nominally separate from his campaign, also has millions on dollars available for him.
But there are a lot of negatives for him in South Carolina, not least a big Christian evangelical presence in the state. Santorum has already been endorsed by one of its most influential figures, Gary Bauer, president of American Values.
If Romney wins South Carolina, he basically has the nomination, though the race could drag on for months after that, with Paul likely to stay in to accumulate as many delegates as possible to take a bloc to the party convention in Florida come August, when the nominee is formally declared.
Democrats on Obama's re-election campaign will have taken heart from the relatively low turn-out in New Hampshire, a hint that there is not that much enthusiasm in the Republican field for the present crop of candidates. Largely absent too were Tea Party supporters, who Democrats had worried might energise the Republican base.
[h=1]Michelle Obama rejects claims of backroom conflict at White House[/h] First lady rebuts 'angry black woman' allegations in new book as election campaign gains momentum
Michelle and Barack Obama. The first lady has dismissed claims she is 'frustrated and insecure'. Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP
She is a brooding, "unrecognised force" in the White House, a new book claims; in frequent conflict with her husband's aides and quick to impose her disapproving views on the presidential staff.
Not so, according to Michelle Obama, who spoke out yesterday to dismiss the allegations, saying this was merely the latest attempt to paint her as "some kind of angry black woman".
The first lady chose to speak out following the publication of The Obamas, an unauthorised biography of the president and his wife by the New York Times reporter Jodi Kantor.
The book blames a "deeply frustrated and insecure" Mrs Obama for frequent tension within her husband's inner circle, and details ill-tempered run-ins with his former chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and former press secretary Robert Gibbs.
But in an interview with CBS News, Mrs Obama said she and Emanuel had "never had a cross word". "I don't have conversations with my husband's staff. I don't go to the meetings. Our staffs work together really well. So if it were ever an issue it would go through that channel anyway.
"I guess it's just more interesting to imagine this conflicted situation here," she said. "That's been an image people have tried to paint of me since the day Barack announced, that I'm some kind of angry black woman."
Kantor's book, which she says is based on interviews with 33 White House staffers, describes a "grim situation" in early 2010, after the Democrats lost Edward Kennedy's seat on the Senate to the Republicans, with "a president whose agenda had hit the rocks, a first lady who disapproved of the turn the White House had taken, and a chief of staff who chafed against her influence".
It claims Mrs Obama, whose husband will seek re-election in November, let it be known she felt the administration's "rudder isn't set right", to which Emanuel reacted "indignantly", and that she was furious when he promised her presence at an event without consulting her, responding by refusing to commit to campaigning for the midterm elections later that year. Emanuel left his position in September 2010 and was later elected mayor of Chicago. Mrs Obama said he and his wife were "some of our dearest friends".
Asked by the CBS reporter Gayle King if she had felt frustrated or unhappy in her position, she said: "I love this job. It has been a privilege from day one … If there's any anxiety that I feel it's because I want to make sure that my girls come out of this the other end whole. But me and Barack, we're grownups, all the ups and downs, we take it on."
On another occasion detailed in the book, Gibbs is alleged to have "cursed" the first lady, after another staffer said she had been unhappy with his response to a claim in a book, denied by Mrs Obama, that she had told Carla Bruni-Sarkozy that living in the White House was hell.
Asked about the incident, Mrs Obama said: "I'm sure we could go day to day and find the things people wish they didn't say to each other. People stumble, people make mistakes." Gibbs, she said, was "a trusted adviser … and remains so. He's been a good friend."
Mrs Obama had initially "bristled" at the confinements of her new role, according to Kantor, having given up her own career during her husband's campaign. An early plan to return to the family home in Chicago had to be abandoned when the security demands of their position made it impractical.
Kantor writes that she also "wanted everything to be flawless and sophisticated" as, according to a former aide, she felt "everyone was waiting for a black woman to make a mistake". But, she writes, she grew into her role, becoming more confident and popular as her husband's political agenda faltered at times.
Speaking to King, Mrs Obama did not dispute that her time in the office had been a "learning curve", particularly when it came to issues she has campaigned on, such as childhood obesity. "You start out with these ideas but you have no idea whether what you want to do with them is going to go anywhere. So then you're a little hesitant, you're careful, you're doing more planning and learning than you are doing."
The first lady had agreed to the interview before Christmas, King said, and she spoke with one eye on her husband's re-election campaign, saying: "If I take my 'Michelle-the-wife' hat off, we need this man in office, and he's doing a phenomenal job." Asked about those who felt disappointed by his presidency so far, she said: "They just don't know. This campaign is going to be about making sure people understand about what's been accomplished, I think people are confused … about how much has been accomplished, but that's what you do in a campaign."
[h=1]Barack Obama's strategists find rich pickings as feuding Republicans attack Mitt Romney[/h] The GOP frontrunner's rivals portray him as a heartless financier. If Mitt Romney does win in South Carolina, the Democrats are ready to exploit that image
Mitt Romney greets his supporters last week as he campaigns in South Carolina. Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters
The fierce fight for the Republican presidential nomination, which is likely to see Mitt Romney emerge as the party's candidate, is offering an arsenal of potential ammunition for the Democrats. As the bitter struggle has unfolded, an array of social conservatives has lined up to oppose the more moderate former Massachusetts governor, while Democratic strategists are drawing up potential lines of attack to use against Romney.
They are identifying various areas in which they believe Romney should he practically wrap up the Republican nomination with victory in South Carolina on 21 January is vulnerable. They include his work as a financier at a firm that shut down companies and laid off workers, his vast Wall Street wealth, and a history of changing his opinions.
"The White House will argue that he is a cold-blooded, out-of-touch millionaire with a questionable jobs record," said Larry Haas, a political commentator and former aide in the Bill Clinton White House. "The White House will likely put it forward that Romney is not on the side of ordinary Americans," Haas added.
Republican infighting has already done much of that work for President Barack Obama and his re-election planners. Over the past week two of Romney's major rivals, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas governor Rick Perry, have brutally attacked Romney's time as head of Bain Capital.
Perry has repeatedly gone after Romney's time at Bain, often using bloodcurdling language that even liberal Democrats might shy away from. Perry said Romney was a "vulture" whose style of business fed on the "carcasses" of American workers. He has already raised two specific cases in South Carolina, where local firms were closed down by Bain, in an attempt to stir up anti-Romney feelings.
Perry has been joined in the fight by Gingrich and his supporters. In a remarkable flip for a figure normally associated with a muscular defence of American-style capitalism, Gingrich too has been lambasting Romney's time at Bain Capital as an immoral pursuit of wealth above all else.
But Gingrich's supporters, in the shape of a group called Winning Our Future, have gone much further. WOF, an organisation known as a super PAC (political action committee) that can spend unlimited money on causes but is banned from co-ordinating with a candidate's campaign, has financed a half-hour film called When Mitt Romney Came to Town. The documentary examines Romney's work at Bain and features emotional interviews with people who lost their jobs as Bain closed down their companies. WOF has released the film through the internet and has cut parts of it into numerous TV attack ads that are flooding the airwaves in South Carolina, paid for by a multimillion-dollar donation from a casino mogul.
One is called "King of Bain". In the ad one man refers to Romney by saying: "He pulled the rug out from under our plant." It closes with a woman saying: "I feel that is the man that destroyed us."
The civil war is disturbing the Republican establishment, too, who are concerned that Perry, Gingrich and their allies are doing the Democrats' work and causing huge damage to the Republican name. In South Carolina, even some of Gingrich's main backers have been shocked.
Paul Anderko, a vice-president with GPS Conservatives for Action in the state, told the Observer the attacks on Bain were a sign of Gingrich's desperation. "Republicans are making a mistake attacking him [Romney] in the way they are doing over this. All they are doing is giving fuel to Obama's campaign," Anderko said.
It is not just Bain that Democrats will be planning to attack Romney on if he does emerge from the bruising South Carolina battle as the Republican nominee. In order to woo social conservatives in the Republican base, Romney has embraced an anti-abortion stance and come out strongly against gay marriage. However, as governor of Massachusetts Romney had quite different and much more moderate positions. Such "flip-flops" are a powerful weapon to be used in any election campaign and Romney has become notorious, even among Republicans, as someone who has switched beliefs for political gain.
Again, it is something that Romney's conservative opponents have been hitting him with in South Carolina. Gingrich has even run an ad saying Romney cannot be trusted. Such negativity is common in the state's notoriously dirty politics. But what is new is the openness of it, especially via the super PACs. "Usually the dirty politics is a whispering campaign. But not this year," said Professor Mark Tompkins,a political scientist at the University of South Carolina.
The really significant story about the 2012 fight between the Republicans and Obama might, however, be unfolding outside South Carolina, as the US economy gradually but noticeably revives. "Obama has managed to move the ship of the economy in the right direction," said Haas. If the upturn lasts, the anti-Romney playbook already being devised will continue to write itself.
[h=1]The Obamas: A Mission, A Marriage by Jodi Kantor review[/h] A revealing portrayal of President Obama highlights the personal failings of his first term in office
The Obamas and guests watch the Super Bowl at the White House in 2009. Photograph: Pete Souza/Getty Images
On the day that Barack Obama was elected president only one newspaper, the satirical daily the Onion, really grasped the rich ambiguity of this moment of history. "Black man given nation's worst job," was its headline.
And so it has turned out. Not everything Barack Obama has tried to do has failed, but even the president's friends admit that this has not been the transformational administration promised in 2008. He may well get another chance to seal the deal in his second term, but the chance comes courtesy of the weakness of his opponents rather than the driving force of his own achievements. He has not reworked the nation in his image.
This book is one of the first to give us a sense of why that might be. What were the reasons for the stumbles, the drift, the malaise that many of his own supporters believe has hung over Barack Obama since the day he came to power?
An early scene gives a clue. It's the Super Bowl the great showdown of American football that stops the nation in its tracks in early February. In 2009, this was the first chance the Obamas had to entertain chez nous on Pennsylvania Avenue. The game is to be watched in the White House cinema, with waiters serving hotdogs.
Obama's staff invited a selection of guests: wounded soldiers, potentially useful politicians, and friends. It was an opportunity for the new president to connect.
He flunked it. As Jodi Kantor writes: "The host greeted everyone and shook hands, but as soon as the game started he settled into his seat, a big velvet chair in front, marked off by a little name card."
A Democratic congressman who was there tells Kantor: "He was sitting up front, he was watching the game, and he didn't move."
The disappointment of the Super Bowl was carried forward into those crucial first months in the White House. Part of the reason Obama wanted to become president, Kantor writes, was to see more of his family. Years as a Chicago senator and as a campaigning candidate had seen him away more often than not. Now his family lived upstairs at last and he and they wanted to make the most of it.
So he refused to miss dinner with his children more than twice a week. This was a firm rule. Kantor writes: "Though Obama was relatively new to Washington, he wasn't going to spend his evenings getting to know people there; the White House turned down virtually every dinner party or gala invitation the president got."
Even phone calls went unmade. Years ago one of Reagan's chiefs of staff told me why he had taken the job. At first he had refused. His wife had refused. His current employer had refused. Reagan rang him. One of his children answered the phone: "It's the president, for you."
He took the job.
So the revelation in this book that a tool used by presidents since its invention to cajole and impress and flatter went unused by Barack Obama is quite a piece of news. It explains a lot. The job was delegated, an insider says, to staff. That's not the same.
Now you may say, good for him! He was a serious chap with a serious agenda and when he talked about his love of his family he actually meant it. He preferred to talk to Michelle and the kids than some blowhard nitwit in his 50th term in a congressional safe seat. Bravo.
You might be right. But politically the Obama approach was little short of disastrous. It left him, when the going got tough, short of friends, short of people who owed him, short of people who felt that the White House was interested in them. It doesn't take much for a president to impress a fellow American, but for this president it has, too often, been too much.
This is about more than a natural reticence. Obama does not give the impression that he really likes folks that much. As Kantor puts it: "Being in the White House seemed to intensify one of his best traits, his natural seriousness, along with one of his worst, his conviction that he was more serious than anyone else."
His own staff, we are told, often come out of the Oval Office so thrilled by the conversations they have just taken part in that they relive them, "going over the best parts out loud".
This mindset may help to explain the odd decision the White House took to accept the Nobel peace prize in late 2009, before actually achieving any peace. They did not need to: a friend of mine who worked for Obama said they seriously considered politely turning it down, thus gaining kudos without the risk of looking silly. (My friend said they joked about getting the prize for chemistry as well with the citation: "He's got great chemistry.")
In other words, they knew this was potentially a bit suspect but they decided to go with it anyway.
Kantor writes of the trip to Oslo: "For one day the Obamas lived the dream version of their presidency instead of the depressing reality." Friends who had travelled with them marvelled at how the members of the Nobel committee had read all the president's books. They knew about his policies too.
Kantor makes little of it but the trip to Oslo and the ill-concealed suggestion that the Obamas were happier there than in Washington or Cleveland or St Louis was an unnecessary political own goal, coming as it did in the midst of efforts to get his healthcare reforms passed by Congress.
The Obamas come across in this book as humane and decent and well-meaning but as naive and isolated. Their story is not yet finally written but Jodi Kantor's early draft of history should serve as a warning. Pick up the phone, Mr Prez. Justin Webb's latest book, Notes on Them and Us, is published by Short Books
[h=1]Condemnation of Afghanistan video over the top, says Rick Perry[/h] Republican presidential hopeful said that marines purportedly shown urinating on corpses should not be prosecuted
Video allegedly showing US troops urinating on bodies of Taliban fighters (contains graphic images). Link to this video The Republican presidential hopeful Rick Perry has accused the Obama administration of "over-the-top rhetoric" and "disdain for the military" with its condemnation of a video that purportedly shows four US marines urinating on corpses in Afghanistan.
Perry's comments also put him at odds with Senator John McCain, the top Republican on the Senate armed services committee.
Perry said the marines involved should be reprimanded but not prosecuted on criminal charges.
The Texas governor said on CNN's State of the Union programme: "Obviously, 18 and 19-year-old kids make stupid mistakes all too often. And that's what's occurred here.
"What's really disturbing to me is the kind of over-the-top rhetoric from this administration and their disdain for the military."
McCain, who expressed concern that the images could damage the war effort, had said: "The Marine Corps prides itself that we don't lower ourselves to the level of the enemy. So it makes me sad more than anything else, because … I can't tell you how wonderful these people [marines] are. And it hurts their reputation and their image."
No one has been charged in the case but officials in the US and abroad have called for swift punishment of the four marines. The defence secretary, Leon Panetta, has said that he worried the video could be used by the Taliban to undermine Afghan peace talks.
A military criminal investigation and an internal Marine Corps review are under way. The Geneva conventions forbid the desecration of the dead.
Later, appearing on the same show, as Perry, McCain said: "We're trying to win the hearts and minds" of the Afghanistan population. "And when something like that comes up, it obviously harms that ability."
Meanwhile, another Republican presidential candidate, Rick Santorum, has boasted of an 11th-hour endorsement from conservative Christian leaders for his bid, in the runup to South Carolina's crucial primary vote – but it appeared to have little influence on churchgoers.
Time is running short for Santorum and other Republican candidates who hope to slow frontrunner Mitt Romney's drive towards the Republican presidential nomination.
Santorum said that Saturday's endorsement by evangelical leaders proved he was a better choice than Romney to take on President Barack Obama.
"They know I'm the consistent conservative," Santorum said on the programme Fox News Sunday. "They saw me as someone who has the best chance of winning."
The backing appeared to have little impact among evangelicals, who account for more than half of South Carolina's Republican voters.
"I make decisions for myself and I don't listen to what a bunch of leaders say to do," said Victoria Jaworowski, who was attending the Cathedral of Praise mega-church in North Charleston.
The Christian leaders meeting in Texas only endorsed Santorum narrowly in a vote that went to a third ballot. It is not clear how they will help the former Pennsylvania senator in terms of money or campaign staff .
Romney has opened up a 21-point lead in the state ahead of the primary as the conservative vote remains splintered, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday.
Many voters say they are willing to overlook Romney's moderate past in order to unite behind a candidate who can beat Obama.
Jon Huntsman, flanked by his wife, Mary Kaye, announces he is quitting the presidential race. Photograph: Mark Wilson/Getty Images
10.00am: Good morning and welcome to our continuing live coverage of the US Republican presidential race: and yes, we're still in South Carolina and Richard Adams is still in the UK, so this is Matt Wells with the main developments today:
Jon Huntsman is quitting the Republican presidential race and will endorse the frontrunner, Mitt Romney. The former Utah governor and ex China ambassador told aides he did not have a chance of beating Romney. He will make a statement later today. The remaining candidates will take part in a debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, tonight. Fox News has changed the rules for the debate, allowing them more time to answer each question. Rick Santorum has won the backing over the weekend of a coalition of Conservative campaigns. After a meeting in Texas, the group of leading Conservative groups backed the former Pennsylvania senator with what has been described as an "unexpected supermajority". Mitt Romney is the clear frontrunner in the polls. A Fox News survey, out today, puts Romney at 40%, up 17 points on the month, followed by Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at 13%. 10.14am: In the battle of the talkshows at the weekend, Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, attempted to brush off the Conservative backing given to Santorum, and claimed he was the only "true conservative" left in the race.
Newt Gingrich on Meet the Press 10.22am: Pity The State newspaper, "South Carolina's homepage", which on Sunday threw its weight behind Jon Huntsman. Its article of endorsement is still the lead item on its opinion page. (Oh well, it is MLK day. They must be short staffed.)
You'd think that even if they don't like it, those on the extremes would respect the fact that those of us in the sensible center decide general elections and seek out a candidate who appeals to us. But the unhealthy demand for ideological purity obscures a hopeful fact about the GOP presidential field: There are actually two sensible, experienced grownups. And while Mr. Romney is far more appealing than any of the other choices, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is more principled, has a far more impressive resume and offers a significantly more important message.
The headline reads: "Huntsman could bring us back together". All they need to do is add: "... in 2016" and it would be fine. 10.29am: The New York Times has been running a series of articles recently trying to chip away at Rick Santorum. None of them have quite hit the mark but today's is probably the most pointed. It claims that during his sentate career Santorum secured more than $1bn in "earmarks" "the practice by which members of Congress set aside money in federal spending bills for what critics often denounce as pet projects back home". The Times says:
An examination of Mr. Santorum's earmark record sheds light on another aspect of his political personality, one that is at odds with the reformer image he has tried to convey on the trail: his prowess as a Washington insider.
A review of some of his earmarks, viewed alongside his political donations, suggests that the river of federal money Mr. Santorum helped direct to Pennsylvania paid off handsomely in the form of campaign cash.
Among those who benefited were Piasecki Aircraft, which got a $3.5m federal grant to help it test a new helicopter propeller technology. The Times reported that during the 2006 election cycle, members of the Piasecki family donated more than $16,000 to Santorum's campaign.
He was very much by the book," said Mr. Piasecki, who added that the timing of his family's contributions to Mr. Santorum had to do with the election cycle, not the federal award. "We supported Rick Santorum on his own merits, and he was a very effective advocate on our behalf as well.
Of course he was. 11.19am:Jon Huntsman is speaking now in South Carolina, where he's flanked as usual by his daughters, and a clutch of other supporters. 11.22am: He opens with a withering attack on his rivals, saying they should suspend their attacks in each other and instead present a positive campaign to electors. Republicans' "common goal" is to restore "bold and principled" leadership in the White House, he said.
But instead of advancing that common goal, the race has collapsed into infighting, he says.
This race has degenerated into an onslaught of negative personal attacks not worthy of the American people and not worthy of this critical time in our nation's history.
He added: "The current toxic forum for political discourse is not helping our cause."
Jon Huntsman and family wave to supporters after quitting the presidential race. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images 11.29am: Huntsman goes on to endorse Mitt Romney, and says he will continue to fight for the causes he espouses, such as reforming the tax code and to "stop nationbuilding overseas and to rebuild our own nation".
Huntsman did not exactly give a full-throated endorsement. He simply said that Romney was the best candidate, and qualified it by acknowledging "the differences and the space between us on some of the issues". 11.32am: Huntsman refused to take questions from the reporters at his press conference. Journalists were naturally keen to find out why, after criticising Romney so strongly in earlier public forums, Huntsman now believed he was the best candidate.
Ashley Parker @AshleyRParker
Huntsman doesn't take questions all mainly of the "You TRASHED Mitt Romney, what changed?" variety
12.08pm: The comedian Stephen Colbert last week handed control of his super pac Americans for a Better Tomorrow Tomorrow to his Comedy Central cohort Jon Stewart, in order to circumvent campaign finance rules that prevent candidates from co-ordinating with campaign committees. The super pac has launched its first "attack ad", buying spots in South Carolina.
It portrays Mitt Romeny as a "serial killer" of US corporations that are "America's greatest institution".
12.13pm: Our DC bureau chief Ewen MacAskill is on the campaign trail in South Carolina and was monitoring Huntsman's withdrawal speech. He sends this analysis:
Huntsman's quit statement was far from a full endorsement of Romney and Romney was not even there to acknowledge it. It may be that Romney, assuming Huntsman's votes will come to him anyway, is courting the right and does not want to be associated with Huntsman. More likely, it is that Huntsman last week said Romney was unelectable and had no core principles.
That would be embarrassing. Some reporters shouted questions along these lines to Huntsman who chose to ignore them. Would have been much worse with Romney beside him. Maybe Romney will gracefully accept the endorsement in Myrtle Beach later today.
The other thing is that though both from similar backgrounds both Mormons and extremely wealthy, there is a long history of rivalry and resentment between the two families. Huntsman rarely let this come through but he did last week in a debate when he berated Romney for criticising him for serving as ambassador under Obama.
This is not the end of Huntsman. Expect him to run again in 2016. In spite of saying he had run out of money, he has a personal fortune of $50m. His dad was at press conference and is worth $900m. Enough to finance another run.
12.16pm:Mitt Romney has acknowledged the Huntsman endorsement in a generous statement on Twitter.
Mitt Romney
✔
@MittRomney
I salute Jon Huntsman & his wife Mary Kaye. He ran a campaign based on unity not division, & love of country. I appreciate his support.
12.27pm: Our reporter Matt Williams has been on the phone to one of the senior editors at The State newspaper, which as we learned earlier, endorsed Jon Huntsman only yesterday. She was sanguine about his decision.
Cindi Scoppe, associate editor of The State, said Huntsman's decision has left the newspaper feeling like a spurned lover.
Scoppe, who penned the endorsement piece on the former Utah governor that was published a day before he dropped out, said: "It is rather like having gone through a courtship for some period of time and finally making love with a man, for him to suddenly turn around and say, 'you know what, I think I'm gay'."
She said Mitt Romeny enjoyed South Carolina's largest newspaper's "implied endorsement", now that Huntsman had dropped out. "We intended to make clear that Romney was our second choice. But whether we write a formal endorsement or not we haven't figured it out yet."
The editorial piece in praise of Huntsman remained on The State's website Monday, prompting a slew of comments from readers poking fun of the newspaper.
One reader posted: "Since we have established it takes only 24 hours for an endorsement by The State to lead to withdrawal, I urge The State to endorse Barack Obama for president at once."
12.49pm: Here's Huntsman's withdrawal statement in full. 12.53pm:Jon Huntsman's daughters have hinted on Twitter that their father is eyeing another run at the Republican nomination in 2016.
Huntsman Daughters
✔
@Jon2012girls
Many flames burn out in politics, our Dad's has just been ignited. What an incredible journey for our family. Thanks for all the support!
Ah, the naivete of youth. 12.58pm: I characterised Romney's acknowledgement of Huntsman's support as "generous" earlier. Others don't see it that way. The Hill says the Romney campaign has been "notably slow to promote Jon Huntsman's endorsement, a sign they don't see it as much of an asset in a Republican primary". 1.08pm:Ron Paul's supporters often complain the media doesn't give him enough attention. Well, the Associated Press clearly taken this to heart and come up with a story that suggests the congressman is routinely flies first class when he travels on taxpayer-funded flights, despite his oft-repeated hawkishness on federal spending. 2.09pm: An adviser to Jon Huntsman's super pac tells Matt Williams he thinks he is an unlikely vice presidential pick, and doubts a push for the main job in 2016.
Dan Judy, of Ayres, McHenry & Associates a polling firm that worked directly for the former Utah governor before switching to Our Destiny pac said a decision to drop out was on the cards ever since last week's result in New Hampshire.
"He under performed in terms of what he needed to do in New Hampshire, he really needed a second place finish to have any momentum," Judy said.
The Republican pollster added: "He was polling down below 5% in South Carolina with little money to get on the air it was always going to be hard."
As to Huntsman's future plans, the strength of fellow moderate conservative Mitt Romney will make it hard for him to make a claim for the vice president slot. "I do not think he is in contention for VP. If Romney gets the nomination, I do not know what he can bring."
Judy also thinks a future charge towards the White House may have been damaged by Huntsman's inability to raise enough cash this time around. "It is hard to run again when you have ran a campaign that wasn't able to raise a lot of money, or make inroads outside New Hampshire."
The pollster added: "I think a 2016 run would be a challenge. He ran this race as a pragmatic, moderate candidate. That is not the kind of candidate the Republicans are looking for. In four years time? Who knows. But it will be a challenge."
2.15pm: Here's a summary of developments today, compiled by our reporter Ryan Devereaux.
Jon Huntsman formally abandoned his bid for president Monday morning and immediately offered his support for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Addressing his supporters at a Myrtle Beach convention centre in South Carolina, Huntsman acknowledged an ideological "space," between himself and Romney on certain issues, but added, "it is now time for our party to unite around the candidate best equipped to defeat Barack Obama." The former Utah governor argued the 2012 race for the Republican nomination has "degenerated into an onslaught of negative attacks not worthy of the American people and not worthy of this critical time." Huntsman went on to claim that President Obama has further divided the nation by engaging in "class warfare for political gain." Huntsman's conciliatory tone stood in stark contrast to comments he made just a week earlier when he described Romney as "pretty much unelectable." Romney was not present for the announcement but issued a muted statement later in the afternoon. "I salute Jon Huntsman and his wife Mary Kaye. Jon ran a spirited campaign based on unity not division, and love of country. I appreciate his friendship and support." The impact of Huntsman's departure remains to be seen, though it could alter the tone of tonight's Republican debate. His absence could allow the remaining five candidates Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich more time to appeal to voters. Latest polling puts Romney well ahead. According to the latest Gallup tracker, 37% of registered Republican voters currently support former governor Romney while his next closest challengers, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, are tied at 14%. Ron Paul trails with 12%. Meanwhile, a newly-released Fox News poll suggests a hypothetical match-up between Romney and president Obama would result in a near-tie. According to Fox's findings 46% of voters would back Obama if the elections were held today, while 45% would lend their support to Romney. Political satirist Stephen Colbert has breathed humor into the South Carolina contest. Colbert's "super pac"- alternately referred to as Americans for a Better Tomorrow Tomorrow or The Definitely Not Coordinating With Stephen Colbert Super Pac has released a new television ad in South Carolina in which Mitt Romeny is described as a serial killer. The ad does not explicitly suggest voters should back Colbert, but instead argues they cast their ballots for "not Mitt Romney." 3.05pm: News from the campaign trail: Newt Gingrich is in Myrtle Beach, where tonight's Fox News TV debate is being held. At a campaign stop at the Rioz steakhouse, his stump speech apparently went down a strom. Speaking to reporters later, he criticised Rick Sanotrum's campaigning record, saying he set an all-time record for defeat when he was voted out as Pennsylvania senator.
Rick Perry has been speaking at a prayer breakfast in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, organised by the Faith and Freedom coalition, and later attended an event ogranised by the Cafe Mom online parenting community. He spoke about how he met his wife, Anita, and how his faith had deepened during the campaign.
Arlette Saenz @ArletteSaenz
Perry: My life and my spiritual life has even strengthened. I've matured as a Christian as I've gone through this process in past 6 months.
3.21pm: The Washington Post's poltical blog The Fix reports that the Huntsman campaign has been busy erasing as much evidence as they can of the former Utah governor's often-outspoken attacks on Mitt Romney, the candidate he now endorses.
In a smart post, they go through the material that's left online.
In October, Huntsman called Romney a "perfectly lubricated weather vane on the important issues of the day," who "has been missing in action in terms of showing any kind of leadership."
Buzzfeed reports that those minxes at the Democratic National Committee archived much of the now-deleted material and is now making hay with it. 4.12pm: I'd meant to flag this earlier. The New York Times reported this morning on the ad-buying frenzy in South Carolina including the interesting fact that some TV advertising, known as "pre-emptable", is sold at a discount. But it comes with the caveat that the slot could be taken by another buyer offering a higher price later which is exactly what some of the campaigns have been doing in South Carolina.
The Times quotes Scott Sanders, general sales manager for WIS, the NBC station in Columbia, South Carolina, saying that the week ahead will be a trying one for his viewers, given the number of political ads: "People are probably going to be miserable watching TV." 4.30pm:Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post says reports of an evangelical consensus behind Rick Santorum "seem to have been greatly exaggerated".
Orgainser Tony Perkins said the final vote showed a "clear majority of support for a single conservative candidate", but Tumulty has spoken to others present who said it was a "more divided group than the final ballot indicated". In particular, some Gingrich supporters had left before the final ballot due to travel commitments.
The group had agreed that its minimum threshold to support a candidate was a three-quarters vote. However, the balloting on the first round was far closer than that, with Santorum receiving 57 votes; Gingrich, 48; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 13; former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 3; and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 1.
In the second round, in which participants chose between the top two finishers on the first ballot, Santorum received 70 votes to Gingrich's 49.
It was not until the third ballot, after some of Gingrich's supporters left, that Santorum cleared the three-quarters threshold, receiving 85 votes, to Gingrich's 29.
Read her full report here. 5.21pm:Rick Santorum's campaign has launched its latest attack ad in South Carolina, and it aims both barrels at Mitt Romney.
The latest Rick Santorum ad Here's the script, as transcribed by Mark Halperin of Time maagzine. Obama supported the Wall Street bailouts So did Romney. Obama gave us radical Obamacare that was based on Romneycare. Obama's a liberal on social issues. Romney once bragged he's even more liberal than Ted Kennedy on social issues. Why would we ever vote for someone who is just like Obama?
[h=1]This US election is all about money and class[/h] Last time the key issue was race. It's not been mentioned in this campaign so far - but race and class are deeply knotted together
Exceptional President Obama. Photograph: Kamil Krzaczynski/EPA
With a synchronicity that borders on the cinematic, just days before Martin Luther King Day a report was released that could could be seen as the realisation of Dr King's dream. Race is no longer seen as the greatest source of tension in American society. Don't celebrate yet. Instead, the number one defining social conflict in the eyes of American people, according to this report, is the divide between the rich and the poor. Like I said, hold the balloons.
This shift is reflected perfectly in the increasingly weird presidential election. If a society gets the celebrities it deserves, then America generally gets the election that sums up its zeitgeist.
The issue that defined the 2008 election was race. This was inevitable, given that it ended with the first African-American president, a concept that only one election previously would have been pretty much unimaginable. Obama's speech about race during that campaign and his candidacy as a whole look in retrospect like the culmination of the racial frustration and anxiety that the Bush administration had exploited and exploded with its histrionic language about terrorists and foreigners.
Well, Obama is still black and, as yet, that non-issue has not been mentioned in this election, although the background of the candidates will be a central tenet. But it's not their race that's going to be the issue it's their class and how it reflects the inequalities in American society.
Clearly, race and class are deeply knotted together in America, as Rick Santorum accidentally reminded people in the first week of this year when it sounded very much like the sweater-vested former senator said that he didn't want "to make black people's lives better by giving them someone else's money". As it happens, nationally, 39% of welfare recipients are white and 37% are black (the rest are, in decreasing order, Hispanic, Asian and other) and, in any case, Santorum eventually insisted that he said "blah people", not "black". Because "blah people" are totally a thing, right? Although I don't have the figures for how many of them are on welfare.
But that flutter aside, casual racism has been notably absent so far from this campaign. The demonised demographic is the wealthy, or, to be specific, wealthy Mitt Romney, with his $250m bank account, private equity firm and the now infamous photo of him clutching dollar bills. Amazingly, much of this attention has come from his own party, not a group known for its aversion to rich folk.
Considering how much the right wing has vilified the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement, it has been quite something to hear its rhetoric adopted by certain members of the GOP. , and for their arguments about income inequality in America to shape the national election.
Last week, two of the Republican party's leading if dimmer lights, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, moved to the left of the Democrats in their virulent attacks on Romney's time at Bain Capital, styling him as a modern-day Mr Potter, the town-destroying capitalist in It's a Wonderful Life. So keen were Romney's rivals to cast the town of Gaffney, South Carolina, as Romney's Bedford Falls, destroyed by his evil capitalist company's evilness, that the townfolk were forced to say that this story wasn't actually true. Thus we are presented with the strange tale of Republican presidential candidates exaggerating the evils of capitalism to the point that they were reprimanded by their own party.
And while the party was right to do so in one sense ragging on Romney's wealth and record in the private sector is something of a betrayal of the Republican's wealthy base in another, Gingrich and Perry stumbled on to something with their attacks on Romney's wealth (never mind that if such talk came from Obama's mouth they'd call it "class warfare".)
According to a study by the Pew Research Centre, two thirds of Americans feel there is a strong conflict between the rich and the poor, and who can blame them? At least five recent studies prove that Americans now have less economic and social mobility than those in other English-speaking and western European countries and, yes, that includes Britain, which, the New York Times keenly emphasised, "is a country famous for its class constraints". There are many reasons for this: the prohibitive cost of higher education and healthcare are two of the most obvious.
After the OWS protests, it would be impossible for any politician not to notice the frustration in this country and while the other GOP candidates Romney and Santorum, mainly are trying to spin this as being more about social mobility than the income inequality between the 1% and the 99%, the two are obviously as intermeshed as class and race. According to the Pew Report, 62% of Americans raised in the top fifth of incomes stay in the top two-fifths; 65% born in the bottom fifth stay in the bottom two-fifths. That sound you hear is the death of the American dream. As race used to and arguably still does, tThe class you are born into in America largely defines your life, and it is next to impossible to break out of it. The few exceptions to this such as the man in the Oval Office serve as reminders that only the exceptional can do so. "God never intended one group of people to live in superfluous inordinate wealth, while others live in abject poverty," wrote Martin Luther King Jr. We might have an African-American president, but Dr King's dream is not realised at all.
[h=1]Mitt Romney admits: I pay 15% tax on $200m personal fortune[/h] Criticism grows as GOP frontrunner discloses information about his finances and says he will wait until April to publish tax returns
Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally in Florence, South Carolina. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney highlighted the gap between himself and average Americans on Tuesday when he maintained he did not make "very much" from speaking fees, even though the $370,000 earned in a single year would be considered a fortune by many middle-class Americans.
His comments came at a press conference while out campaigning in South Carolina ahead of its potentially decisive primary on Saturday. Romney is the favourite to win in South Carolina, enjoying a double-digit poll lead over his nearest rival, former speaker Newt Gingrich.
At the press conference in Florence, he disclosed that he pays a tax rate of only 15% in spite of having an estimated wealth of $200m.
Romney has so far resisted offering details about his financial dealings but, during the presidential debate in Myrtle Beach on Monday night, he finally bowed to pressure and said he would "probably" release his tax returns in April.
He told reporters: "What's the effective rate I've been paying? It's probably closer to the 15% rate than anything."
He said his income came mainly from post-retirement investments. In addition, he said there were speaking engagements: "And then I get speakers' fees from time to time, but not very much." These fees, which he has already disclosed, amounted to $370,000 in the course of one year. The "not very much" could haunt him in a general election.
Romney's remark recalled a previous GOP debate in which he offered Texas governor Rick Perry $10,000 in a bet, an incident that played into the portrayal of him as extremely wealthy and unable to relate to ordinary Americans.
Gingrich, also out campaigning on Tuesday, reiterated the tax issue, asking why Romney had to wait until April and claiming South Carolinian voters had a right to know before the primary. Gingrich has promised to release his tax returns on Thursday.
Gingrich, who feels Romney was weakened in the debate, particularly on the tax issue, told CBS: "If you're a South Carolinian, you say: 'Wait a second, why don't you want me to know about it? Why are you going to wait until after I've voted?' Last night he conceded in principle that he owes it to the public to share it. Strikes me he ought to do it before South Carolina votes."
The criticism of Romney and the potential release of his tax returns in April could help the Democrats gearing up for Barack Obama's re-election campaign. Obama has adopted as one of his main campaign themes that the Republicans are the party of the wealthy, protecting the tax cuts of the rich, rather than helping working- and middle-class Americans.
The multi-millionaire investor Warren Buffet, among others, has argued that the wealthy should pay more in tax and not just the same as, or often less, than ordinary Americans.
Romney is also being criticised by Republicans and Democrats alike over his stewardship of Bain Capital, the private equity firm that invested in companies and, in some cases, laid off thousands of workers. The 15% tax is on income that includes post-retirement investment and profits from Bain Capital.
"My income comes overwhelmingly from some investments made in the past, whether ordinary income or earned annually. I got a little bit of income from my book, but I gave that all away," Romney said.
Romney also discussed the job losses while at Bain Capital.
"Four companies created 120,000 jobs. It's very simple," he said "Four companies created 120,000. Staples, Bright Horizons, Steel Dynamics, and … which one am I missing? Sports Authority."
About 10,000 jobs were lost elsewhere. That amounts to more than 100,000 jobs he created, he said.
The latest poll in South Carolina, by Monmouth University, has Romney on 33%, Gingrich 22%, Rick Santorum 14%, Ron Paul 14%, and Rick Perry 12%.
This is increasingly looking like a Romney vs. Obama race, and with that Obama's chances are increasing.
The GOP has failed to capitalize on the economy to corner a once very vulnerable Obama, and if the economy recovers some more - a big if, granted- Obama would look increasingly the safe bet.
[h=1]South Carolina primary race: Boos for Ron Paul's foreign policy – live[/h] Knives are out for Ron Paul in South Carolina as campaigning continues after the latest Republican debate - live coverage
Mitt Romney speaks as Newt Gingrich listens at the South Carolina Republican presidential debate in Myrtle Beach. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP
10am: Good morning and welcome to our continuing coverage of the South Carolina primary race. Here's a summary of last night's fiery debate from Ryan Devereaux:
Republican presidential hopefuls set their sights on Mitt Romney in one of the more raucous debates yet this year. With just five days remaining before the South Carolina primary, Romney's challengers called the frontrunner's tax history, business ties and character into question. Newt Gingrich, who trailed Romney by 8 percentage points in the polls coming into Monday's debate, was widely considered to have performed strongly in the contest. Mitt Romney, who is normally known for his calm and collected demeanor appeared to be on the defensive for much of the evening. Texas governor Rick Perry challenged Romney to release his tax records – after much prodding, Romney said he might release his financial history in April, when the contest for the Republican nomination may well be over. The 3,000-strong, mostly white audience booed when moderator Juan Williams suggested Gingrich's characterization of President Obama as a "food stamp president" may be viewed as belittling to the poor and racial minorities. In a charged exchange, Gingrich seized on the criticism, claiming "more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history" – a fact that is numerically correct but does not take account of the economic reality President Obama inherited in 2008. The crowd also voiced its displeasure when, during a discussion of immigration, it was mentioned that Mitt Romney's father was born in Mexico. Ron Paul was also booed when he attempted to explain why the US did not need secretly to enter Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden. Paul pointed out that the US had managed to capture Saddam Hussein alive,
and that the Iraqi government had put him on trial. The line did not
go down well with the audience or his Republican rivals. Campaigning continues in South Carolina today. Mitt Romney's spokesman has said that he expects Jon Huntsman, who dropped out of the race yesterday and endorsed the frontrunner, to campaign with him "at some point".
Here's the Guardian's video package of debate highlights: 10.10am: Another harbinger of Mitt Romney's Creeping Inevitability Tendency – sounds like a post-punk 1990s band somehow – comes in this new ABC/Washington Post poll out this morning:
Romney wins the support of 35% of all Republicans and GOP-leaners nationwide, with former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul neck and neck with about half the support Romney enjoys. Former senator Rick Santorum, who surged to a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, checks in at 13%, his highest level of the campaign.
Here's the thing: questions of approval and electability in national polls such as this tend to rise and fall alongside a candidate's performances in the primaries. Candidate chicken and primary egg, if you will. 10.30am: Let's go out and about with the candidates today, shall we?
Everyone is in South Carolina, apart from Mitt Romney, who is smoking big cigars in New York City lit using $100 bills while brushing his teeth in champagne: • Mitt Romney
8.30am: Held a rally to discusses jobs and the economy, Florence Civic Center, Florence, South Carolina.
6pm: Attends a campaign fundraising event, with event organizers including Steve Schwarzman, co-chairman of the Blackstone Group, Sheraton New York Hotel, New York • Ron Paul
10am: Holds a news conference. South Carolina State House, Columbia
2pm: Holds a town hall, Spartanburg
4.30pm: Holds a town hall, Rock Hill • Rick Santorum
8.30am: Held a news conference aboard the USS Yorktown, Charleston, followed by a "national security town hall"
11.30am: Addresses the Aiken Republican Club, Aiken
2pm: Holds a town hall, Lexington
5.45pm: Participates in the South Carolina BIPEC 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Forum, Columbia
8pm: Holds a campaign rally at Fuddruckers, Anderson • Newt Gingrich
10am: Holds Florence Town Hall Meeting, Florence
Noon: Attends US Global Leadership Coalition Foreign Policy Forum and Luncheon, Columbia
1.30pm: Holds South Carolina Farmer's Market town hall. West Columbia
4pm: Holds an "Ask Newt" tele-townhall: 1-877-218-6543
5.30pm: Participates in South Carolina BIPEC 2012 GOP Primary Candiates Forum, Columbia
7.30pm: Speaks at Greater CSRA Conservative Coalition Presidential Forum. USC-Aiken Convocation Center, Aiken • Rick Perry
9.30am: Held town hall meeting. VFW, Murrells Inlet
5pm: Participates in BIPEC Forum, Columbia
8pm: Speaks at The Response, Greenville • Jon Huntsman
10am: Has a long lie-in
10.12am: Thinks about doing New York Times crossword
10.18am: Hums
10.30am: Receives updated orders from Chinese paymasters
10.47am: Finally tears off latex mask disguise
11.30pm: Waits for submarine to surface off coast of California 11am: What effect last night's Republican debate had on the fate of Mitt Romney remains to be seen. But the conservative blogs and channels lit up on the subject of Ron Paul and his view of the US role in foreign policy.
This video shows one of the contentious debates between Ron Paul and everyone else, including the bulk of the audience based on the jeers and boos.
Here's the transcript of Ron Paul's comments, after being asked about his opposition to the US assassination of Osama bin Laden:
There is proper procedures rather than digging bigger holes for ourselves. That's what we have been doing in the Middle East, digging bigger and bigger holes for ourselves and it's so hard for us to get out of that mess. And we have a long ways to go. We are still in Iraq and that's getting worse and we are not leaving Afghanistan and the American people are sick and tired of it, 80% of the American people want us out of there. I am just suggesting that we work within the rule of law. Like only going to war when you declare the law.
Responding to Gingrich, Paul went on to say:
My point is, if another country does to us what we do others, we're not going to like it very much. So I would say that maybe we ought to consider a golden rule in foreign policy. Don't do to other nations... [Boos]
... what we don't want to have them do to us. So we endlessly bomb these countries and then we wonder, wonder why they get upset with us? And yet it continues on and on. I mean, this idea that we can't debate foreign policy, then all we have to do is start another war?
I mean, it's warmongering. They're building up for another war against Iran, and people can't wait to get in another war. This country doesn't need another war. We need to quit the ones we're in. We need to save the money and bring our troops home.
This is not what a Republican audience is used to hearing – hence the boos and jeers at an unprecedented level for a GOP debate. Yet Paul continues to poll well despite his heretical views.
In a sign of their concern, the war wing of the Republican party has started deploying its big guns against Ron Paul: on Fox News, Liz Cheney was rolled out to more or less accuse Ron Paul of being a terrorist sympathiser. 11.22am: So Mitt Romney has decided to firm up his "maybe, I don't know, whatever, time will tell" position on publishing his tax returns – and now says he will publish them in April.
This comes at an unscheduled news conference held by Romney in South Carolina, trying to stop his unpublished tax returns from becoming a bigger news story after he flanneled last night under questioning during the debate.
Now Romney says firmly that he will publish them – assuming at that point he's the nominee, one imagines – and also reveals that his overall tax rate is just 15%. Or as Romney's periphrasic syntax would have it:
It's probably closer to the 15% rate than anything. Because my last 10 years, my income comes overwhelmingly from some investments made in the past, whether ordinary income or earned annually. I got a little bit of income from my book, but I gave that all away. And then I get speaker's fees from time to time, but not very much.
Those "some investments" are worth about $200m we think, perhaps more, while the "not very much" in speaking fees amounted to $374,000 last year, getting about $41,000 a time. If you think that's "not very much" then ... you have a lot of money already.
(Having said that I'm sure the latest tax year sees less in the way of speaking fees for Romney, since his presidential campaign means he's giving away his words of wisdom for free.)
Here's an explanation of why Romney's "some investments" returns attract just 15% in tax.
In case you were wondering: the Obama family's effective tax rate is 26%. 11.46am: Compare and contrast the audience reaction from last night's GOP debate on foreign policy:
A. Demand that the US stop getting involved in foreign wars and treat other countries as it would be treated? Boooooooo
B. Call the government of Turkey "Islamic terrorists" and suggest it be kicked out of Nato? Yaaaaaay 12.06pm: The Democrats aren't wasting anytime waiting for Mitt Romney to release his tax filings.
This web ad is a taste of things to come later this year in the likely event that Romney is the Republican nominee. 12.27pm: Ha. The New York Times reports on a new robocall to voters in South Carolina from the Romney campaign that cunningly repeats Rick Santorum's endorsement of Mitt Romney in the 2008 Republican primary:
Audio: This is an urgent message from the Romney campaign. In 2008, Rick Santorum made the following announcement on Laura Ingraham's radio program." Laura Ingraham: Joining us now with an important announcement, you're not going to want to miss this, former senator from the great state of Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum. Rick Santorum: If you're a conservative, there really is only one place to go right now. I would even argue farther than that. If you're a Republican, if you're a Republican in the broadest sense, there is only one place to go right now, and that's Mitt Romney.
12.49pm: The Turkish government has responded to Rick Perry's remarks suggesting that is a nest of "Islamic terrorists" – and is, as you might expect, not impressed at such "misplaced and ill-advised criticism":
Turkey is a secular democracy that has for decades been an essential and trusted partner of the US. Our bilateral relations are based on the common values of democracy and respect for human rights, rule of law, and free market economy. Whether in the fight against terrorism or violent extremism, in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria or against the proliferation of WMD, we stand side by side to tackle the many common threats and challenges of our times.
Through Nato and bilaterally, Turkey and the US will continue to cooperate day in day out to establish peace, security and prosperity around the world.
Contrary to statements during the debate, Turkey receives no significant sums of foreign aid dollars from the US. Indeed, Turkey is a strong and growing trading partner with the US in general, and with Texas in particular creating thousands of jobs throughout that state.
Texas, you say? Fancy. 1.08pm: Assuming Ron Paul continues to rack up delegates over the coming primary season, we'll all be wondering what Ron Paul wants.
He has a Plan B, it seems, according to his campaign manager Jesse Benton, who tells ABC News:
If the campaign comes up short at the convention, Benton says the plan is to use all the delegates awarded to Paul as a bargaining chip to force the Republican Party to stick to its limited government platform.
Benton says this could include auditing the Federal Reserve and winding back several parts of the Patriot Act, including roving wire taps which he says were originally written with the intent of expiring.
1.19pm: It's real: Stephen Colbert's Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow Super Pac's official filing with the Federal Elections Committee. 1.41pm: Non-South Carolina political news: over in Wisconsin the petition efforts to recall controversial Republican governor Scott Walker are reaching fruition today (via AP):
The signature drive started two months ago, largely in reaction to a law pushed by the governor last year that ended nearly all collective bargaining rights for most public workers. Organizers say they have gathered far more than the 540,208 signatures required to force the election against both Walker and GOP Lt Gov Rebecca Kleefisch.
Recall organizers on Tuesday morning already had turned in 23% more signatures than necessary to force a recall election against state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, a Republican and staunch supporter of Walker's agenda.
Walker is far away from Madison, the state capital, when the organisers submit their petition: he's said to be fundraising in New York. 2pm: So where did Jon Huntsman's supporters go after he withdrew from the GOP primary. Straight into Mitt Romney's arms in South Carolina, according to Rasmussen Reports in a poll conducted just before last night's debate: Mitt Romney 35%
Newt Gingrich 21%
Ron Paul 16%
Rick Santorum 16%
Rick Perry 5%
So Santorum and Gingrich are neatly splitting the anti-Romney vote between tham, allowing Romney to sail through the middle. 2.18pm: Fun fact: Stephen Colbert has a higher approval rating than any of the Republican candidates, according to the serious poll from PPP:
36% of voters have a favorable opinion of [Colbert] to 28% with a negative one. His 36% favorability is better than the entire GOP field. Romney's at 35%, Santorum at 30%, Paul at 27%, Gingrich at 26%, and Perry at 21%. Colbert's popular with Democrats (47/21) and independents (43/26) but not with Republicans (18/39) despite his best efforts to run as one of their Presidential candidates.
Let's not forget that Stephen Colbert isn't actually running for president ... but to cheer up Republicans, if Colbert did run he'd take support away from Obama in a three-way with Romney. And hey, iof a guy who ran a pizza company can be a serious candidate for five minutes, why can't a comedian?
The poll's national match-up shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul have identical performances against Obama, with both trailing him by five percentage points. 2.30pm: Barack Obama will give his acceptance speech on the last day of the Democratic National Convention outdoors at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
That's a reprise of his 2008 acceptance speech venue at Denver's Mile High Stadium, but with a catchy corporate sponsor's name. 2.43pm: Polling guru Nate Silver of the New York Times has been slaughtering goats, reading entrails and so forth, and now estimates that Mitt Romney only has a narrow 91% chance of winning the South Carolina primary. 3pm: The Turkish Coalition of America is none too pleased about Rick Perry's "Islamic terrorist" description of Turkey's government and "respectfully requests that Governor Perry apologize for his divisive and uneducated remarks". That should do the trick I imagine.
In a statement, TCA president Lincoln McCurdy said:
Turkey is one of the largest contributors of support to US efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, including providing the second-largest Nato army on the ground, leading the Nato troops in Afghanistan three times, and providing over 70% of the international logistics support to US troops in Iraq.
In Governor Perry's own state, exports to Turkey have increased over 215% in the last four years, and Texas is home to a thriving Turkish American community.
The level of ignorance shown by the governor of such an important state as Texas is appalling. How can we expect to have friends in the international world if our leaders show this level of ignorance and narrow mindedness in trying to score political points?
3.25pm: The Guardian's Chris McGreal is in Greenville, the centre of conservative Republicanism in South Carolina.
He finds many Republican voters in the area are not delighted about the amount of electioneering going on:
People around here in Greenville are telling me they are getting 15 to 20 robocalls a day from the Republican presidential candidates. Some have just taken to leaving their answering machines or voicemail on, and no longer bothering to pick up the phone.
One guy said to me that he'd had so many calls from Mitt Romney's campaign that he considered to be basically dishonest that he's thinking of not voting for Romney.
4.48pm: This is Matt Wells taking over from Richard Adams for the rest of the day. Interesting TV ad news: according to NBC, the Obama campaign has approached TV stations to request rates for a "potential and significant TV ad buy".
The lifting of restrictions on political action committee funding has meant that in primary and caucus states, voters are being deluged by political messages. And of course, in many cases, these messages are anti-Obama. 5.34pm: There are signs that Romney's "not very much" reference, when talking about speaker fees that totalled more than $370,000 in the course of one year, could come to haunt him.
The Washington Post's blog The Fix says the problem is not that he's rich, per se – Obama's book sales have brought him wealth too – but that it makes him seem out of touch with ordinary people.
Voters want to feel as though they are electing someone who feels their pain (hellooo Bill Clinton!), someone who, at some point in his life, has walked in their shoes.
Being rich isn't the problem. Being unaware that lots and lots of other people aren't (and what that means in real terms) is.
5.36pm: One of the "moments" in last night's TV debate was the racially charged exchanged between Newt Gingrich and one of the moderators, Juan Williams. Gingrich isn't remotely embarassed by it – in fact, he's turned it into a TV ad. 5.45pm: We're bringing this live blog to an end for today, but we'll be back with more tomorrow. Thanks for reading and commenting.
[h=1]Keystone XL pipeline: Obama rejects controversial project[/h] Republicans set up election-year showdown by blasting Obama for decision, saying thousands of jobs have been lost
John Boehner, surrounded by other House Republicans, decries the state department's announcement that the US will not proceed with the controversial Keystone Pipeline. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
Barack Obama rejected the controversial Keystone tar sands pipeline on Wednesday, making good on a promise not to give in to a Republican ultimatum on the project.
The announcement from the state department which was expected was hailed by environmentalists as a victory.
But it sets up an election-year confrontation over the pipeline, which was to carry carbon-heavy crude from the tar sands of Alberta across the American heartland to refineries on the Texas coast.
However, TransCanada, the Canadian company which was seeking to build the pipeline, will be allowed to re-apply for permission to go ahead with the project. Jones, in the conference call, said there was a chance officials could use information from the original application, speeding up the permit process.
But she would not commit to a specific time frame for reviewing a new TransCanada pipeline project.
"The Department's denial of the permit application does not preclude any subsequent permit application or applications for similar projects," the state department said in a statement said.
Obama, in his statement, pinned the blame for the decision on the Republicans for trying to push the administration to an earlier deadline. "The rushed and arbitrary deadline insisted on by congressional Republicans prevented a full assessment of the pipeline's impact, he said. "This announcement is not a judgment on the merits of the pipeline, but the arbitrary nature of a deadline that prevented the state department from gathering the information necessary to approve the project and protect the American people."
He said officials would continue to explore new pipeline routes
Environmental groups immediately hailed the decision as David versus Goliath victory for an unlikely coalition between national activists and Nebraska landowners opposed to the pipeline's route across an ecologically sensitive area known as the Sand Hills.
Industry groups and Republicans said the decision showed Obama did not care about jobs. There was also disappointment from the Canadian government, which had pushed hard for the pipeline.
As news spread on Wednesday of a forthcoming announcement, Bill McKibben, the environmentalist who galvanised opposition to the pipeline, said: "Assuming that what we're hearing is true, this isn't just the right call, it's the brave call. The knock on Barack Obama from many quarters has been that he's too conciliatory. But here, in the face of a naked threat from Big Oil to exact 'huge political consequences' he's stood up strong."
Damon Moglen, the climate campaigner of Friends of the Earth, cast the decision as an epic victory. When the project was first proposed, in August 2008, "No one thought we could win," he said
Industry groups said Obama was squandering a chance to create jobs through pipeline construction, and warned he would rue his decision come election day.
"This political decision offers hard evidence that creating jobs is not a high priority for this administration," said Tom Donohue, president of the Chamber of Commerce, which has pushed hard for the pipeline.
Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunner, said the decision showed a "lack of seriousness" about bringing down unemployment, and that Obama was pandering to his political base.
Republicans in Congress echoed the jobs argument, and said they would try and put forward new legislation to push the project forward.
"President Obama is about to destroy tens of thousands of American jobs," a spokesman for Republican house speaker John Boehner said.
Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper has also pushed hard for the pipeline, telling the CBC earlier this week that the administration's earlier delays were made for "very bad political reasons".
In an extraordinary rant this month, the natural resources minister, Joe Oliver, lashed out at opponents of the pipeline as foreign radicals and jet-setting celebrities.
However, administration officials argued that Republicans would have to take some of the blame for the cancellation of the project.
The White House had warned repeatedly that it would be forced to turn down the nearly 1,700 mile pipeline, after Congress voted last month to give the administration a tight 60-day deadline to render its decision.
White House spokesman Jay Carney made it clear on Tuesday that Obama would not be stampeded into approving the project. "There was an attempt to short-circut the review process in a way that does not allow the kind of careful consideration of all the competing criteria here that needs to be done," he said. "It's a fallacy to suggest that the president would sign into law something when there isn't even an alternate route identified in Nebraska," he said.
Kerri-Ann Jones, the state department official overseeing the pipeline application, rejected the idea that Obama's decision would compromise America's energy security, or that the decision was politically motivated. "This decision today doesn't make our commitment to energy independence and energy security any less of a priority," she told a conference call with reporters.
Instead, she like the White House put the blame squarely on Congress setting a February 21 deadline on a decision. "We felt the imposition of a deadline would complicate the process," Jones said. "The legislation really did not give us enough time to do a responsible evaluation."
The state department had earlier delayed a decision for up to a year, saying it needed to review additional routes through Nebraska.
That decision, which the state department attributed to intense grassroots opposition from Nebraska, was a political gift to Obama, saving him from making a decision on a project which had been cast as a choice between jobs or the environment.
The state department said at the time that the review, including a search for alternate routes across Nebraska, would likely delay a final decision until 2013.
TransCanada had begun to work with officials in Nebraska on finding a new path around the Sand Hills, adding about 100 additional miles to the route. Officials had indicated earlier they were close to agreeing on a new route.
But activists in Nebraska and Washington warned that they would be as ready to fight off a new tar sands pipeline. "If they do reapply, TransCanada will face the same valid public concerns and fierce opposition as the first time," said Susan Casey-Lefkowitz, a campaigner for the Natural Resources Defence Council in Washington. "If they do reapply, TransCanada will face the same valid public concerns and fierce opposition as the first time."
[h=1]Newt Gingrich: I would ignore supreme court as president[/h] Republican presidential candidate would order military to defy judges' ruling extending legal rights to terror suspects
Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich listens to a question during the Personhood USA presidential forum in Greenville, South Carolina Photograph: Chris Keane/REUTERS
Newt Gingrich has pledged that on his first day as president he will set up a constitutional showdown by ordering the military to defy a supreme court ruling extending some legal rights to foreign terrorism suspects and captured enemy combatants in US custody.
The Republican contender told a forum of anti-abortion activists ahead of South Carolina's primary election that as president he would ignore supreme court rulings he regards as legally flawed. He implied that would also extend to the 1973 decision, Roe vs Wade, legalising abortion.
"If the court makes a fundamentally wrong decision, the president can in fact ignore it," said Gingrich to cheers.
The Republican contender, who has made no secret of his disdain for the judiciary, said that as president he would expect to have repeated showdowns with the supreme court. He said the court would lose because it is the least powerful and least accountable arm of government.
Gingrich said that the first confrontation would be over its historic ruling, known as the Boumediene decision, that foreign terrorism suspects held at Guantánamo Bay have the right to challenge their detention in US courts.
"I fully expect as president that there will be several occasions when we will collide. The first one, which is actually foreign policy, the Boumediene decision which extends American legal rights to enemy combatants on the battlefield is such an outrageous extension of the court in to the commander in chief's role.
"I will issue an instruction on the opening day, first day I'm sworn in, I will issue an executive order to the national security apparatus that it will not enforce Boumediene and it will regard it as null and void because it is an absurd extension of the supreme court in to the commander in chief's (authority)."
Gingrich has said before that he regards the president as above the court when the two branches have fundamentally differing views but he went further in committing himself to setting up a constitutional crisis on his first day in office.
The Republican candidate cited what he said were precedents, including Abraham Lincoln's refusal to accept the Dred Scott decision denying that former slaves were citizens.
Gingrich's interpretations have previously been met with disdain. President George W Bush's attorney general, Michael Mukasey, has said that a president selectively ignoring supreme court decisions would turn the US in to a banana republic.
At the same election forum, Rick Perry, the Texas governor, did not go so far as Gingrich but he did say that as president he would seek to pack the supreme court with judges who would overturn the ruling legalising abortion.
"When we have a president that appoints two or three more supreme court justices - that's what the next president of the United States is liable to do - those from my perspective should be individuals who are strict constructionists who look at the constitution and interpret it in a way that our founding fathers wrote it," he said. "Therefore Roe vs Wade would be overturned."
While that comment was less contentious than Gingrich's approach, Perry created his own ripple of controversy by once again speaking ill of a foreign country.
"Think about 35,000 children every day are aborted in China. That country is destined for the ash heap of history unless it changes its values," he said.
[h=2]Elections 2012 live[/h] [h=1]South Carolina primary: Mitt Romney's rivals ask taxing questions[/h] The GOP contest for South Carolina intensifies, with frontrunner Mitt Romney under pressure over his wealth
Mitt Romney disclosed he pays a tax rate of just 15% on his estimated wealth of $200m. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
7.30pm: Here's a summary of today's activity on the campaign trail in South Carolina: • Republican front-runner Mitt Romney continued to attract criticism for his tax returns and income, especially his dismissal of $374,000 in speaking fees as "not very much". Further revelations of millions of dollars invested by Romney in the Cayman Islands tax haven are only likely to fuel the issue • The war of words between Romney and Newt Gingrich intensified with three days remaining until the South Carolina primary, with the Romney campaign attacking Gingrich over his record while Speaker of the House and Gingrich accusing Romney of an "unendingly dirty and dishonest" campaign • New national and South Carolina polls appeared to show Newt Gingrich gaining support since the GOP debate on Monday, with Gingrich eating into Romney's large lead. Meanwhile the heat of the campaign appears t have damaged Romney's standing with independent voters • The Republican candidates were quick to assail the Obama administration for its decision to turn down approve for the Keystone oil pipeline project from Canada, accusing the White House of costing jobs • Rick Santorum could still emerge as the winner of the Iowa caucuses when the final vote tallies are certified and published on Thursday morning. Mitt Romney was thought to have won with a slender eight vote lead but that result could be overturned • One of Rick Perry's most influential backers called on the Texas governor to pull out of the South Carolina primary and endorse Newt Gingrich
More from us tomorrow as we cover all the comings and goings in South Carolina on the final two days of campaigning before Saturday's primary. 7.14pm: Apparently ABC News has an interview with Marianne Gingrich – the lucky second Mrs Gingrich – in the can, which it may screen tomorrow.
Marianne gave an interview to Esquire in 2010 which wasn't that exciting.
Buzzfeed fillets it for "The 5 Nastiest Things Marianne Gingrich Has Ever Said About Newt". Update: According to the Associated Press, ABC News now says it does plan to air the interview tomorrow – Thursday – night on Nightline at 11.30pm. Newt Gingrich's daughters in response have sent a letter to ABC, and the Huffington Post has a copy:
ABC News or other campaigns may want to talk about the past, just days before an important primary election. But Newt is going to talk to the people of South Carolina about the future – about job creation, lower taxes, and about who can defeat Barack Obama by providing the sharpest contrast to his damaging, extreme liberalism. We are confident this is the conversation the people of South Carolina are interested in having.
Mitt Romney: head scratcher. Photograph: Mark Wilson/Getty Images 7pm: There's something utterly contradictory about Mitt Romney denying claims by Newt Gingrich for creating jobs while himself claiming that he – Mitt Romney – can create jobs as president.
Here's what Romney said today:
The Speaker the other day at the debate was talking about how he created millions of jobs when he was working with the Reagan administration. Well he'd been in Congress two years when Ronald Reagan came into office. That'd be like saying 435 congressmen were all responsible for those jobs. Government doesn't create jobs. It's the private sector that creates jobs.
Congressmen taking responsibility or taking credit for helping create jobs is like Al Gore taking credit for the Internet. Look, you're the guys in America that put Americans to work. Not Congressmen, not even presidents.
Leaving aside whether Gingrich can claim credit for jobs created during the Reagan administration – he can't, really – Romney here is denying that even the sainted (in Republican eyes) Reagan administration didn't "create jobs". He even says "not even presidents" can do it. And yet Romney is running for president on a platform that he would create jobs.
Here's what Romney said last month:
What I can promise you is this – when you get out of college, if I'm president you'll have a job. If President Obama is reelected, you will not be able to get a job.
Most of the video is a fake interview between the Huntsman Girls and Mitt Romney (played by a bobblehead doll on Wall Street).... In another part of this new video, the Huntsman Girls say, "You've said before that your hunting experience is limited to small varmints. If you were attacked say by a honey badger, would you be able to defend yourself?"
The Romney bobblehead vigorously shakes its head no.
The bobblehead did a better job than Mitt did in last Monday's debate. 6.32pm: Over at Cif America, Ana Marie Cox seeks to explain what is behind Sarah Palin's mysterious semi-endorsement of Newt Gingrich:
Either Newt has successfully shed his years-long association with Washington culture, or Palin – like many Newt supporters – is so angry with the Obama administration that she doesn't care if Gingrich's values genuinely match up with hers; she just wants fireworks. Preferably M80s. Thrown in the White House commodes.
6.14pm: The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt is in South Carolina catching up with Rick Santorum's latest appearance – one that featured the reality TV family the Duggars doing warm-up:
A half-full function room here in Spartanburg at Rick Santorum's town hall event. It's a quiet crowd, but Santrum has earned applause for promising not to cut military spending and for a carefully rehearsed line: "People say I'm so extreme that I believe life begins at conception. I actually don't believe life begins at conception. I know life begins at conception."
Santorum has also accused Obama of siding with "extreme environmentalists" in deciding against approving the Keystone pipeline from Canada, again to applause.
Largely, though, the crowd has seemed a little underwhelmed. Not huge numbers, and not a huge press turn out either. But then it is a nearly four hours drive from where most of the media are based in Charleston.
Mike O'Brien @mpoindc
Romney spox Saul: Romneys' investments in funds in the Caymans "taxed in the very same way they would be if those funds were est. in the US"
According to Mike O'Brien of MSNBC, the Romney campaign is looking for a correction. That should be interesting, unless they have some more detail to release on the subject.
The Romney campaign is also saying: "These are not tax havens and it is false to say so."
To be clear, ABC News is not accusing Mitt Romney of breaking any laws or evading taxes. And the article even quotes the Romney campaign as saying that Romney "has paid all US taxes on income derived from those investments". So, what's the problem exactly?
The difference is not the tax that Romney pays on income he derives from those Cayman Island-based funds, but what taxes the funds themselves pay, compared to those paid by a similar fund based in the US.
The other question is: if Romney leaves his dividends from such funds offshore in the Cayman Islands, rather than moving them onshore to the US, does he pay US tax rates on them? Until he releases his tax records in full disclosure, there is no way of knowing. 5.43pm: Hot on the heels of news of Mitt Romney's Cayman Islands tax haven investments comes this report from Reuters, explaining how Romney got tax advantages from donating shares from Bain Capital deals to the Mormon church:
The analysts said that if Romney and others at Bain got a stock cheap and eventually donated it to a church or charity without cashing in the stock, then they could get two tax benefits.
First, they would not have to pay capital gains tax on the appreciated value of the stock, which they would have to do if they sold the stock and either pocketed or donated the proceeds.
Second, they might be able to deduct all, or at least part of, the value of the donated stock from their taxable income.
Such a move can save wealthy donors millions of dollars, the analysts said.
Among the donations, it seems, was nearly $2m in Burger King stock in February 2007 generated by a Bain deal. 5.23pm: Buzzfeed offers the top 50 highlights from the 200-page McCain campaign opposition research book on Mitt Romney, including (at number 31) that "Romney also proposed imposing a fee on the mentally retarded," whatever that means. 5.09pm: Another reason Mitt Romney isn't keen on publishing his tax returns: they may reveal that a chunk of his personal wealth is stashed away in the Cayman Islands tax haven, as ABC News is now reporting:
Romney has used a variety of techniques to help minimize the taxes on his estimated $250 million fortune. In addition to paying the lower tax rate on his investment income, Romney has as much as $8 million invested in at least 12 funds listed on a Cayman Islands registry. Another investment, which Romney reports as being worth between $5 million and $25 million, shows up on securities records as having been domiciled in the Caymans.
Official documents reviewed by ABC News show that Bain Capital, the private equity partnership Romney once ran, has set up some 138 secretive offshore funds in the Caymans.
In 2007, when Romney was running in the Republican primaries, the Los Angeles Times took a detailed look at his involvement with tax-exempt investments through Cayman Island holding companies. 4.44pm: All the Ron Paul fans who send in emails complaining that Ron Paul doesn't get enough coverage in the media should read this media coverage research by the Pew Research Centre's Project for Excellence in Journalism:
After months in which he was better known for not being covered, Ron Paul can claim being ignored no longer. He was the third most covered candidate after Romney and Gingrich, a significant presence in 15% of the stories studied.
But he enjoyed his widest differential between positive (45%) and negative coverage (12%) of any candidate last week. And it was his best week by that metric since the campaign began, dating back in this analysis to July.
4.28pm: Ashley Parker of the New York Times has a neat piece summing up Mitt Romney's "bumps in South Carolina":
This week, the Romney campaign convened a meeting with a small group of potential donors and supporters in South Carolina that it hoped to bring on board, said someone with knowledge of the gathering. There, the donors – some of whom left still uncommitted – were told that the campaign was polling and holding focus groups to determine who Mr Romney's biggest rival was here, and that they were prepared to go after whomever that rival was.
Isn't that great? They have "focus groups to determine who Mr Romney's biggest rival was". 4.15pm: "Race for South Carolina tightening," says a CNN headline of a new poll just out this afternoon – and it's right, up to a point.
Two weeks ago, the same poll gave Mitt Romney a 19 percentage point lead. Now it's just 10 points:
A CNN/Time/ORC International poll indicates that 33% of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they are backing Romney, with 23% supporting Gingrich. The former Massachusetts governor's 10 point advantage over the former House speaker is down from a 19 point lead two weeks ago. According to the survey, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is at 16%, Ron Paul of Texas is at 13%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry stands at 6%.
Honestly, since Romney's expectations of winning in South Carolina were pretty thin just a month or two ago, a win of any size is good enough for him.
The bulk of the calls for this poll was done before Monday night's debate, and it may be that Gingrich has improved his position since then. 3.46pm: The Iowa caucus result has still not been certified – and so there remains the possibility that Mitt Romney could retrospectively lose Iowa to Rick Santorum.
Today's the day for official totals from caucus night to be certified – and the Iowa Republican party has released this statement:
Timeline for Public Release of Results & Inspection of Form E Certification Documents:
The Iowa GOP will publicly release the certified vote totals of the 2012 Republican Caucuses at 8.15am (CST) on Thursday, January 19. The certified "Form E" precinct documents will then be made available for inspection by presidential campaign representatives at 9am (CST) at the Republican Party of Iowa Headquarters in Des Moines. The certified "Form E" precinct documents will then be made available for inspection by members of the news media starting at 11am (CST).
So, 9.15am ET tomorrow, I think, we'll know how won the Iowa caucuses. It's not quite hanging chads and Florida 2000, but still.
On the night, Romney held a fragile eight-vote lead over Santorum. Since then, recounts and recalculations have muddied the water – and Santorum keeps saying in public that he might end up the winner.
This could be bad news for Romney if, two days before the primary in South Carolina, he gets some of his winner's sheen scraped off.
After a debate in which Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney faced attacks from all sides, the Romney campaign says it has not yet accepted invitations to participate in two high-profile debates leading up to the January 31 Florida primary, and a key Romney adviser is expressing fatigue and frustration over what he sees as a never-ending series of GOP debates.
Can Romney afford not to debate? It's an interesting thought. York points out that there's a debate tomorrow night. Then, 48 hours after the polls close in South Carolina, there is be another debate in Tampa, Florida. Seventy-two hours later, there is another debate scheduled in Florida.
Rick Perry on the campaign trail today in Greer, South Carolina. Photograph: Erik Lesser/EPA 3.06pm: Even as some influential Republicans call on him to step out of the race, Rick Perry is still making his case in upstate South Carolina, where the Guardian's Chris McGreal watches him this afternoon:
Perry gave a rousing speech at the Southern Thymes cafe in Greer that pushed some of the right buttons for the areas conservatives. God was in there along with the usual attacks on Obama for "not putting America's interests first".
"We have a president more interested in the next election than the next generation," he said.
Perry went on to remind everyone of his contentious claim to have created half a million jobs in Texas.
"We don't need a lighter version of Obama. We need a powerful contrast between what Obama's done to this economy and what I've been able to help do in Texas by those job creations," he said.
The audience have apparently heard it all before and there was little response. But the voters did respond with enthusiasm to Perry's warning to potential foes not to cross America, although he didn't list any of them, which is probably a relief to Turkey.
"As the president of the United States we will use every tool in our arsenal before we risk the lives of our young men and women. But if that is what's required then that hardest decision that a president makes to send our young men and women in to combat to protect America's interests, when we do, we will unleash all hell on those who crossed America. and we will go fast and we will go hard and we will be victorious and then we will come home.
3pm: A big poll out from Pew shows Mitt Romney continues to have a big lead among Republicans – but that his image with voters overall continues to languish:
Mitt Romney's gains in the GOP horserace have not been accompanied by an improvement in his personal image. Among all voters, his favorability rating has slipped since November, from 38% to 33%. That is primarily because of a decline among Democratic voters (from 25% then to 14% today).
Romney's favorability has changed little in recent months among Republican and independent voters. Currently, 61% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Romney, compared with 25% who have an unfavorable view. That is about the same as in November (58% favorable, 28% unfavorable). Among independent voters, 32% have a favorable opinion of Romney while significantly more (45%) have an unfavorable view.
2.47pm: One of Rick Perry's biggest allies on the internet has been Erick Erickson, co-founder of the influential RedState website. But now Erickson thinks Perry should do the decent thing – pull out now and endorse Newt Gingrich before the South Carolina primary on Saturday:
Rick Perry's campaign has come to an end. But he could leave on an unexpected high note - helping conservatives unite around one not-Romney in a way no one else has been able to. Rick Perry could be the catalyst and kingmaker so many have been looking for, even as other conservatives have stood by, unwilling to endorse in the face of long odds.
Newt Gingrich in Warrenville today: Romney campaign will be 'dirty and dishonest'. Photograph: Eric Thayer/Reuters 2.25pm: Here we go again: Newt Gingrich, speaking in Warrenville, South Carolina, says Romney "will do anything" to win in South Carolina:
I fully expect the Romney campaign to be unendingly dirty and dishonest for the next four days because they're desperate.... They thought they could buy this. They're discovering they can't buy this.
I think they have internal polls that show them losing. And I think they will do anything at any level and I need your help. People power will beat money power, and I need your help to beat Romney.
2pm:Rick Perry is doggedly continuing his campaign in the heartland of South Carolina.
Chris McGreal of the Guardian is following Perry on his walkabout and noting the tepid response the candidate is drawing today:
Rick Perry blew off a visit to the ultra-Christian Bob Jones University in Greenville for a walkabout on main street of Greer, the heart of conservative and evangelical South Carolina.
The turnout was small at his early stops at the Wild Ace Pizza where he resisted the temptation to order a pint of Gaelic ale and instead opted for coffee down the street. At the chamber of commerce, Perry observed that Greer is a "very clean town".
The customers at each of his stops were polite but his political problem was there for all to see – very few were openly committing to him. Some questioned whether he could beat Obama, a big issue for a lot of voters. Others questioned whether he could beat Romney and said they would go for Gingrich.
Some said the economy is the issue and Romney is a better man on that. One voter, Don Brown, a retired car salesman, said he thought Perry was a better person than Romney and a true Christian.
True Christian? "I'm not for Mormons," said Brown.
1.38pm: More South Carolina nastiness in the Romney versus Gingrich air war:
This is a web-only ad issued today from the Romney campaign, starring former congresswoman Susan Molinari and labeling the former speaker as "undisciplined". Molinari finishes with this line:
I worry about the Republican party's chances to defeat President Obama if Newt Gingrich is the nominee
That's nice: "I worry" is a safer option than saying anything definitive that might be held to have hurt the party.
That ad comes after a conference call organised by the Romney campaign with Molinari and former senator Jim Talent this morning:
He's not reliable," said Talent, ripping Gingrich for his criticism of Paul Ryan's budget plan and attacks on Romney's history at Bain Capital. "Yes, he can say exciting things. He also says things that undermine the conservative movement."
Added Molinari: "I can only describe his style as leadership by chaos. Clearly, when Newt is in the room, Newt becomes the focus.
My only question is so what did Mitt Romney do? Who did he help elect? What was he doing during those years. Show us how many Republicans you helped elect in the '80s when you weren't for Reagan and Bush. Show us how many Republicans you helped elect in '92 when you were voting as a Democrat for Paul Tsongas.
1.19pm: Yesterday we reported how South Carolina residents were getting annoyed at the weight of robocalls from the Romney campaign – here's the Huffington Post with details on how Romney is out-dialing his opponents by five to one in the robocall stakes:
Robocalls tend to be one of the least-effective methods in moving voters. But according to Dakin, the Romney campaign has begun applying new technologies to tactic, with calls featuring the former governor greeting the recipient by name before launching into the actual script.
"It is probably the most sophisticated robocall strategy they have used this cycle," said Dakin, who suspects that the campaign either had Romney record a number of common names or used audio technology to make it sound like his voice.
See: Romney "used audio technology to make it sound like his voice". More evidence for the RomneyBot 2000 Cyborg model.
The HuffPost also includes audio links to the robocalls themselves. 1.02pm:Newt Gingrich fails to turn up at his own press conference in Columbia just now, reports the Guardian's Ewen MacAskill live at the scene:
Newt Gingrich was a no-show for a press conference in Columbia, South Carolina, scheduled for 11.30-12.30. There was a large press pack, including the national networks, in place outside the imposing state capitol building. Gingrich had planned to speak on the steps, with the dramatic backdrop of the capitol building.
Gingrich has not been speaking to the press much in the last 24 hours, other than for just ten minutes on Tuesday. It may be that his campaign staff have decided that he has the momentum coming out of the debate Wednesday and would be mistake to let him mouth off at a press conference, only for some gaffe to emerge for Romney to pounce on.
Just was well he cancelled. The location, with the Confederate flag flying a few feet from where he would have been standing, was badly chosen, unless of course his campaign team had discounted the African-American vote and was making a cynical appeal for rednecks.
At least one journalist would have raised the flag controversy, an issue in the 2000 election campaign, and Gingrich, author of Civil War books, might well have gone on a long rant about how the Civil War was misunderstood.
12.33pm: It's getting close and nasty in South Carolina.
This is the latest ad from the pro-Gingrich Winning Our Future super pac, although the cartoon makes Mitt Romney seem more lifelike and animated.
The Gingrich campaign proper is sending around attack mailshots on Romney's shifting abortion stances over the years: "Massachusetts Moderate Mitt Romney: a pro-abortion record".
Mitt Romney "can't be trusted to protect life," it concludes. 12.06pm: How do we know that Mitt Romney is starting to get nervous about Newt Gingrich's surge in South Carolina? Because Mr 15% has dropped some of his well-worn Obama attacks and inserted some shots at Gingrich during his event in South Carolina just now.
Specifically, Romney went after Gingrich for taking credit for creating jobs while he was Speaker of the House:
The Speaker the other day at the debate was talking about how he created millions of jobs when he was working with the Reagan administration…. Congressmen taking responsibility or taking credit for helping create jobs is like Al Gore taking credit for the Internet.
Is this not a bit rich coming from a man who claims to have created jobs in companies many years after he left the venture capital firm that funded only 10% of the company's capital? Such as Staples, which Romney has been claiming that he "helped create":
Bain may have provided management expertise or money when others would not, but a company such as Staples - one of the biggest contributors to Romney's job figures - was largely the brainchild of entrepreneur Tom Stemberg. Stemberg presumably should get most of the credit for inventing a killer new business category.
12 noon: Breaking non-Republican primary news: the White House will announce this afternoon it is rejecting the Keystone pipeline application, says the Washington Post:
The Obama administration will announce this afternoon it is rejecting a Canadian firm's application for a permit to build and operate a massive oil pipeline across the US-Canada border, according to sources who have been briefed on the matter.
However the administration will allow TransCanada to reapply after it develops an alternate route through the sensitive habitat of Nebraska's Sandhills. Deputy Secretary of State William J Burns will make the announcement, which comes in response to a congressionally-mandated deadline of February 21 for action on the proposed Keystone pipeline.
11.42am:Newt Gingrich: Mouth for hire! Paul Levy, managing partner at the private equity firm JLL Partners, told Bloomberg Television this morning:
Newt Gingrich spoke at my annual meeting two years ago, we paid him $40,000, and this gentleman praised private equity more fulsomely than I could ever do it. I can give you a copy of the check. We paid to the Washington Speakers Bureau for Newt Gingrich to come and speak. He was great. He gave a great evening. Everybody had fun. He fielded a lot of questions. He gave us a lot of time. But nobody praised private equity, risk taking, capital more fulsomely than Newt Gingrich.
So if you give Newt a cheque for $40,000, he'd praise whatever you want?
OK, Paul Levy doesn't appear to know what "fulsome" means. Here's the Guardian's style guide:
fulsome: another example of a word that is almost never used correctly, it means "cloying, excessive, disgusting by excess" (and is not, as some appear to believe, a clever word for full); so "fulsome praise" should not be used in a complimentary sense
Let's take Mr Levy at his word and assume Newt Gingrich praised private equity cloyingly, excessively, disgustingly. That works too. 11.30am: Many people have already enjoyed this piece by Jonathan Chait in New York magazine. But this is the Mitt Romney bit to note carefully:
He is nowhere near as formidable as John McCain was four years before. The latest poll from PPP has his favorability rating at a miserable 35% positive, 53% negative. He may win – he probably will win if the economy dips back into recession – but he is a weak candidate who in many ways embodies the public's distrust of his party.
Got it? Even though Mitt Romney is a flip-flopper with the spine of a jellyfish and the morals of ... something without many morals ... he can still win the general election in 2012 against Obama.
Key point: the "Massachusetts moderate" s-h-1-t being thrown at Romney now is a weakness in the Republican primary. That same stuff will be a strength for Romney in the general election. 11.25am: The well-oiled Romney machine starting to look slightly under-oiled. First there was the "Hey $300,000 is pocket money" remark by Rommers yesterday, now this:
Ashley Parker @AshleyRParker
Amateur hour at the Romney campaign: Press bus "forgets" NYT, WaPo, WSJ, Bloomberg, Globe, Fox, ABC, NBC at airport, missing event.
You know it was an accident because the Romney campaign wouldn't have left Fox News and the WSJ on the tarmac by design. The rest they would happily throw under the bus, not just off it. 11.15am: Those cunning devils over at Buzzfeed Politics – specifically, Andrew Kaczynski – have uncovered something juicy:
A document found online by BuzzFeed appears to be John McCain's entire, 200-page opposition research file – or "book" – on Mitt Romney from 2008, the year they were bitter rivals. Segments of the book have been posted on RedState.com, but this the first time the document has been shared for public consumption in its entirety.
Feel free to sit down and trawl through this and email us the best bits. Seriously, we'd be grateful for any titbits you come across. 11am: It sounds as if Newt Gingrich did get a boost from his debate performance on Monday night. A new Rasmussen Reportsnational telephone robo-poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Mitt Romney with 30% support and Newt Gingrich with 27%, Rick Santorum on 15%, Ron Paul on 13% and Rick Perry in last place with 4%:
But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich's jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney's support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul's and Perry's support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned 4% of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.
But once again: national polls in primary races are like chocolate teapots: nice to look at and fun for a while but not much use.
Rick Perry delivers a prayer at the Response evangelical event in South Carolina. Photograph: Bob Daemmrich/Corbis 10.41am: The Guardian's Chris McGreal went to see Rick Perry at a religious event in South Carolina last night – but one which was surprisingly non-political:
Rick Perry bounded into a meeting of the Response – which began as a day of fasting and prayer and fasting in August initiated by the Texas governor – in Greenville last night as he attempted to win over sceptical evangelists. He didn't deliver a campaign speech and stuck instead to 10 minutes of preaching and prayer.
The audience had already been primed with preachers hectoring against "wickedness" and "the degeneration of the family". One called for the country to be led by leaders defined by "humility and repentance".
Then Perry appeared. Against a roll of thunder overhead, the Texas governor preached the supremacy of the Lord, saying "His agenda is not a political agenda" – something you might not realise listening to the other Republican contenders and some of their supporters. Then Perry led a prayer for the jobless and the president.
Full marks to Perry for having the class to include a prayer for the president. 10.30am: Speaking at his Columbia press conference, Newt Gingrich reveals that he pays an effective tax rate of 31% – in contrast to Mitt Romney's 15%, as revealed yesterday.
"Newt really must have a crappy accountant," observes Doug Mataconis.
Gingrich also says that Rick Perry and Rick Santorum should drop out so that he can beat Mitt Romney. Hmm. 10am: The Guardian's Ewen MacAskill is off to hear Newt Gingrich's press conference on steps of Columbia State Capitol building, and sends along his thoughts about Sarah Palin's sidelong endorsement of Gingrich:
Lots of people think Sarah Palin does not matter much anymore, having opted against joining the race for the nomination. But she is still one of the best-known names in the Republican party and a lot of grassroots Republicans retain affection for her. By not standing, she has not been pulled apart, her flakier views exposed.
In short, her endorsement of Gingrich, and it is an endorsement, one that Gingrich is turning into an ad, will help in South Carolina. Romney has the endorsement of South Carolina's governor, Nikki Haley, who is an impressive politician with a future in the party beyond the state. But Haley has annoyed some – many? – conservatives by (a) backing Romney and (b) doing so whole-heartedly.
Ironically Haley owes much of success in South Carolina to Palin's endorsement of her in the 2010 Republican primary.
Santorum did speak out against another Romney revelation: The former Massachusetts governor said he receives "speaker's fees from time to time, but not very much." The amount, however, turned out to be over $362,000 in one year, USA Today reported in August.
"To make a statement that I made a couple of extra bucks giving speeches when that couple of extra bucks was over $300,000 - I mean, that to me says a little bit more about Governor Romney and his connection with the American people than his tax rate," Santorum said.
Santorum's right. For all Romney's message discipline, he has a bad record of making off-key comments when unscripted. 9.30am: Good morning and welcome to our continuing coverage of the South Carolina primary race. Here's a summary of today's main news lines so far, compiled by Ryan Devereaux.
Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney continues to face pressure over his wealth and tax affairs. Speaking at a campaign stop in South Carolina on Tuesday, Romney said that he pays roughly 15% in annual taxes on his massive personal wealth, and underscored the gap between himself and most members of the general public by claiming the $374,327 he earned in speaking fees last year was "not very much." He said he would not disclose his full returns until April. Newt Gingrich is expected to release his tax history on Thursday. The pressure on Romney undescores the increased focus on income inequality and taxation in the campaign. Jay Carney, spokesman for President Barack Obama, said Romney's acknowledgement that he pays a 15% tax rate illustrates an unfairness in the system that the president is concerned about. Gingrich, who has described the race in South Carolina as a "do or die" contest, has received the tacit endorsement of former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. Palin said that, if she were voting in South Carolina, she would vote for the former House speaker. Texas congressman Ron Paul is taking today off from the campaign trail to vote against an increase in the nation's debt ceiling in Washington. Paul is expected to return to South Carolina early Thursday and continue campaigning through Saturday's primary. Rick Santorum, meanwhile, reportedly plans to continue his bid for the nomination regardless of where he's placed in Saturday's results, taking his campaign to Florida.
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Mitt Romney makes calls to likely voters at his campaign headquarters in New Hampshire. His comment about 'firing people' coincides with rival campaign ads labelling him a heartless corporate raider. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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