Mchambuzi
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 24, 2007
- 4,850
- 9,434
Sehemu kubwa ya mijadala kuhusiana na uchaguzi mkuu 2015 inatawaliwa na hoja zinazohusiana na personalities – ‘choices' za baadhi ya wanachama lakini hasa viongozi wakuu wa vyama vya siasa na wapambe wao; Chini kwa chini makundi mbalimbali kutoka vyama vyote vikuu vya siasa pia yamekuwa yakiendela kuimarisha hoja zao kuhusiana na nani wanadhani ndio chaguo bora la watanzania kumpokea kijiti Rais Jakaya Kikwete October 2015; Katika makundi haya, wapo watu ambao tayari wameshajiridhisha kwamba chaguo lao/mgombea wao (sio chaguo la wananchi walio wengi) tayari ameshapita, na kinachosubiriwa ni muda tu wa kuapishwa; Mtazamo wa watu hawa unalipeleka taifa letu katika hatari kubwa kwani iwapo matokeo ya uchaguzi wa Rais 2015 yatakuwa ni kinyume na matarajio yao, hata kama uchaguzi mkuu utathibitika kufanyika katika hali ya Wazi na Haki, bila ya uangalifu, makundi haya ndio yatakuwa ni chanzo cha vurugu nchini kwani watachochea wananchi kukataa matokeo ya uchaguzi wa Urais; Hili ni jambo la hatari, hasa ikizingatiwa kwamba logic na vigezo vinavyotumika na wahusika kujiaminisha juu ya ushindi wa wagombea wao vinapwaya, hasa kutokana na kutozingatia hali halisi iliyopo kwenye electorate ;
Nia ya mada yangu ya leo ni kuziba ombwe lililopo katika mijadala ya urais kuelekea 2015, hasa kupanua zaidi mjadala kuhusiana na ‘choices' walizonazo watanzania 2015, badala ya choices walizonazo viongozi wa vyama vya siasa pamoja na wapambe wao;
Miaka 27 iliyopita (1985), Baba wa Taifa Mwalimu Nyerere alitamka maneno yafuatayo (Gazeti la Citizen, 19 Februari 2005):
"So my prayer to the socialists God is to get to have the American one party system in Tanzania...So my hope is that you can have another party; You can have two parties in Tanzania, both believing in the essentials of the Arusha Declaration. Then try to see which is going to be more efficient in implementing it. But one Socialist party, One Capitalist party, theoretically Yes, but i don't know how it can Work"
Maneno haya ya Baba wa Taifa yalikuja miaka michache kabla ya kuanza kwa mjadala wa vyama vingi Tanzania, hasa kufuatia uteuzi wa Tume ya Nyalali iliyozunguka nchi nzima kuchukua maoni ya wananchi kuhusiana na mfumo wa siasa unaowafaa. Mwalimu alienda mbali zaidi na kutumia tamthili/ufanani (analogy) ya mfumo wa taifa la Marekani ambapo alisema ingawa Marekani ina vyama viwili vya siasa:
"...But they are really one party. Both Parties agree on the basic national objectives. Internally, both of them are highly capitalist. Externally, both of them are imperialist".
Mwalimu nyerere pia akaelezea matumaini yake kwamba siku moja CCM itameguka na kuzaa Vyama Viwili vikubwa na vyenye nguvu - both Socialist and Both Nationalist;
Kwa bahati mbaya au nzuri kutegemeana na mtazamo wa mtu, Mungu wa Ujamaa hakujibu sala za Mwalimu Nyerere kwani - badala ya CCM kumeguka na kuwa vyama viwili vikuu vyenye nguvu, CCM ikaamua kulizika azimio la Arusha, lakini pia kuzika Nationalism (Utaifa) na Socialism (Ujamaa); Lakini muhimu zaidi ni kwamba vyama vyenye nguvu ya kupambana na CCM ni chama tofauti na vile alivyotabiri Mwalimu kwa kutumia analogy yake ya mfumo wa kisiasa wa marekani kwani Chadema na CUF vytoe sio Socialist na bado vina safari ndefu ya kuwa true nationalists; Vinginevyo nje ya hapo, ni vyama vitatu tu nchini kati ya karibia vyama ishirini ambavyo vina sifa ya kuitwa vyama vya siasa. Vyama hivyo ni CCM, Chadema na CUF kwani tofauti na vyama vingine, ni hivi vitatu tu ndio kwa zaidi ya miaka kumi vimeonyesha 'consistency', 'organisation na 'institutionalization';
Lakini pamoja na haya, vyama hivi vitatu kimsingi vinakabiliwa na tatizo moja kubwa – havina utofauti wowote wa maana in terms of Vision, Outlook & Major Policies; Hata CCM ambayo inajisifia kuwa na sera bora, sera zake zimeshindwa kuleta manufaa ya maana kwa wananchi walio wengi (vijijini). Mbaya zaidi, vyama vyote hivi vitatu vinategemea wahisani (donor – dependent); Pili, vyama vyote hivi vina abudu sera za uliberali mamboleo - liberalisation, privatization, marketization bila ya mchujo na matokeo yake ni ‘Maisha Bora Kwa Walio Wachache' kwani huo ndio msingi wa ‘Washington Consensus'; Wasiwasi unakuwa mkubwa zzaidi pale mtu unapobaini kwamba hakuna hata chama kimoja kinachoweka wazi jinsi gani kinajenga dira mbadala ya taifa ambayo ni home - driven (badala ya donor - driven), na havina mikakati ‘elaborate' ya kujenga ‘a democratic economy'; Katika suala la kujenga mfumo wa utawala ambao utakuwa na manufaa ya watanzania walio wengi i.e. wanavijiji, pengine Chadema kidogo imeonyesha nia kupitia sera yake ya majimbo na pia uasisi wa mabadiliko ya katiba mpya;
Swali linalofuatia ni - Je, katika mazingira ya namna hii, tunapoelekea Uchaguzi mkuu wa 2015, wapiga kura wa Tanzania wanaenda kupigia kura kitu gani hasa/kuchagua kitu gani hasa?
Mwaka 2005, Profesa Issa Shivji alichapisha makala moja ambayo ililenga kuchambua choices walizokuwa nazo watanzania kuelekea uchaguzi mkuu wa 2005; Katika uchambuzi wake, aligawanya ‘choices' za watanzania katika makundi makuu matatu. Nina amini kwamba uchambuzi huu wa Profesa Shivji bado ni relevant kwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao (2015). Shivji alijadili choices za watanzania katika makundi yafuatayo:
1. The Common Sense Choice
2. The Pragmatic Choice
3. The Rational Choice
Huku akisema kwamba kuna jingine – ‘The principled Choice', lipo kinadharia zaidi kuliko kivitendo. Kwa mujibu wa Shivji, mvuto kwa kundi hili ni ‘unique principles and policies' za vyama husika na anajadili kwamba ‘principled choice' kwa bahati mbaya bado haipo Tanzania na hoja ya msingi katika hili ni kwamba kimsingi hauwezi kutofautisha sera za vyama vyote vikuu vya siasa Tanzania vya - CCM, Chadema na CUF (rejea mjadala hapo juu kuhusu vyama vya siasa kuwa donor – driven). Kwa muktadha huu, Shivji anajadili choice kuu tatu zilizopo Tanzania ni kama ifuatavyo:
Hili ni kundi la kwanza kwa mujibu wa Shivji. Njia rahisi inayowekwa na Shivji kutusaidia kuelewa nature ya kundi hili ni kulifikiria katika muktadha wa dhana maarufu isemayo kwamba:
"Better the devil you know than the devil you do not know";
Lakini haraka haraka, Shivji anasema kwamba – 'Common Sense, however is not always Good Sense', na kuzidi kufafanua kwamba:
"If you continue to strengthen the devil you know, there is a likelihood that he may be further emboldened to become even more devilish. These overwhelming electoral victories or what are called ‘ushindi wa kishindo', or with an even more ominous connotation ‘ushindi wa tsunami', have their consequences. Few parties and still fewer individuals who have got into the political seats with 70 – 80 percent of the vote can resist the arrogance of power. Self control in the exercise of power is a rare phenomenon."
2. The Pragmatic Choice
Kundi la pili kwa mujibu wa Shivji ni ‘Pragmatic' na anajadili kwamba kundi hili halipigi kura kufuatana na ‘instinct', ‘principle' au ‘reason'; Badala yake, Shivji anasema kundi hili linaendeshwa na ‘self interest' – bribes and favours, regional, racial, religious or gender prejudice and bias. Vile vile anasema kwamba kundi hili ndio kubwa kuliko makundi yote ya wapiga kura yaliyopo nchini, huku akisisitiza:
"We have already seen it in the internal nomination processes of the parties and should prepare ourselves to see more of it during the elections. Supposedly, there are watchdogs like the electoral commissions who are supposed to check such parties. But who watches the watchdogs"?
3. Rational Choice
Kwa mujibu wa Shivji, hili ni kundi la tatu na analijadili kwamba:
‘In absence of availability of principled choice, the most rational choice would be for a political configuration that assures stability, security, basic freedoms and checks on gross misuse of power. In our situation, theoretically speaking, it means a Union Parliament which would have a strong presence of the opposition; say 40% of the seats. As for the presidency, ideally, the winning candidate should end up with a slightly over 50% of the votes. In other words, ‘ushindi wa kishindo' should disappear from our political scene"
Lakini Shivji anajenga hoja kwamba watanzania kuwa na ‘rational choice' haina maana kwamba its a principled choice (rejea maana ya principled choice huko juu); Conclusion tunayoweza kuipata kwa shivji katika hili ni kwamba kwa vile Tanzania haina principled choice, watanzania wenye nia ya kutumia haki yao ya kujiletea mabadiliko watapigia kura Mgombea Urais kwa mtindo wa ‘rational choice', na wpiga kura wa namna hii hawatakuwa wengi sana ikifananishwa na wa makundi mengine – yani the ‘common sense and/or pragmatic';
Swali la kufungua mjadala: Je, madhara ya hali hii kwa CCM na Chadema kuelekea 2015 ni Yepi?
Hitimisho
Nikianza na Chadema - ni rahisi kubaini kwanini uchaguzi ujao (2015) Chadema haitapata kura za kutosha kuingia ikulu kwani mtaji mkubwa wa Chadema ni ‘rational votes' ambazo kwa bahati mbaya au nzuri kutegemea mtu upo upande upi wa hoja, kwa ngazi ya urais, ‘rational votes' hazitakuwa nyingi uchaguzi wa 2015 ikifananishwa na ‘common sense' and ‘pragmatic votes'; Lakini huko mbeleni (beyond 2015), kuna uwezekano mkubwa wa rational votes kuongezeka hasa kutegemeana na Umoja, Mshikamano, Uvumilivu na Ukomavu wa Chadema Kisiasa; Huu ndio mtaji mkubwa wa Chadema huko mbeleni, hasa iwapo wataweza kuepuka mtego wa kukataa matokeo 2015, kwani kitendo cha kupinga matokeo 2015 kitaleta vurugu na kuzidi kutengeneza ‘common sense' and ‘pragmatic voters' (hasa vijijini)ambao ndio imekuwa ni nguzo kuu ya CCM; Kwa maana hii, iwapo Chadema itashindwa ngazi ya Urais 2015, itakuwa muhimu sana waepuke kuitwa chama cha vurugu kwa kukataa matokeo na kuifanya nchi isitawalike; Pamoja na uchache wa Rational votes ngazi ya Urais Tanzania ya leo, hili ndio tanuri la vyama makini kuzalisha principled voters, hasa iwapo vitafanikiwa kuja na sera mbadala za uliberali mamboleo ambao hauna msaada wowote kwa watanzania walio wengi;
Nikimalizia na CCM, ni muhimu CCM ibadilike sasa, vinginevyo iwapo CCM itaendelea kukataa kubadilika, basi itambue kwamba ingawa uwezekano wake kushinda Urais 2015 ni mkubwa kupitia kwa common sense & pragmatic votes, suala la kutegemea such votes is a short lived strategy and it is more of a POLITICAL LIABILITY kuliko POLITICAL ASSET; Baada ya uchaguzi wa 2015, ni dhahiri kwamba Rais yoyote wa kupitia CCM Chini ya CCM iliyokataa mabadiliko hatoweza kuleta mabadiliko yoyote ya maana kwa watanzania walio wengi (vijijini), hivyo the real value katika siasa za nchi will continue to be on rational voters na hawa watazidi kuongezeka na vyama makini vitakuwa na fursa ya kuwatumia vyema kuwabadilisha kuwa principled voters, huku sala za Mwalimu Nyerere to the Socialist God zikizidi kujibiwa;
Nia ya mada yangu ya leo ni kuziba ombwe lililopo katika mijadala ya urais kuelekea 2015, hasa kupanua zaidi mjadala kuhusiana na ‘choices' walizonazo watanzania 2015, badala ya choices walizonazo viongozi wa vyama vya siasa pamoja na wapambe wao;
Miaka 27 iliyopita (1985), Baba wa Taifa Mwalimu Nyerere alitamka maneno yafuatayo (Gazeti la Citizen, 19 Februari 2005):
"So my prayer to the socialists God is to get to have the American one party system in Tanzania...So my hope is that you can have another party; You can have two parties in Tanzania, both believing in the essentials of the Arusha Declaration. Then try to see which is going to be more efficient in implementing it. But one Socialist party, One Capitalist party, theoretically Yes, but i don't know how it can Work"
Maneno haya ya Baba wa Taifa yalikuja miaka michache kabla ya kuanza kwa mjadala wa vyama vingi Tanzania, hasa kufuatia uteuzi wa Tume ya Nyalali iliyozunguka nchi nzima kuchukua maoni ya wananchi kuhusiana na mfumo wa siasa unaowafaa. Mwalimu alienda mbali zaidi na kutumia tamthili/ufanani (analogy) ya mfumo wa taifa la Marekani ambapo alisema ingawa Marekani ina vyama viwili vya siasa:
"...But they are really one party. Both Parties agree on the basic national objectives. Internally, both of them are highly capitalist. Externally, both of them are imperialist".
Mwalimu nyerere pia akaelezea matumaini yake kwamba siku moja CCM itameguka na kuzaa Vyama Viwili vikubwa na vyenye nguvu - both Socialist and Both Nationalist;
Kwa bahati mbaya au nzuri kutegemeana na mtazamo wa mtu, Mungu wa Ujamaa hakujibu sala za Mwalimu Nyerere kwani - badala ya CCM kumeguka na kuwa vyama viwili vikuu vyenye nguvu, CCM ikaamua kulizika azimio la Arusha, lakini pia kuzika Nationalism (Utaifa) na Socialism (Ujamaa); Lakini muhimu zaidi ni kwamba vyama vyenye nguvu ya kupambana na CCM ni chama tofauti na vile alivyotabiri Mwalimu kwa kutumia analogy yake ya mfumo wa kisiasa wa marekani kwani Chadema na CUF vytoe sio Socialist na bado vina safari ndefu ya kuwa true nationalists; Vinginevyo nje ya hapo, ni vyama vitatu tu nchini kati ya karibia vyama ishirini ambavyo vina sifa ya kuitwa vyama vya siasa. Vyama hivyo ni CCM, Chadema na CUF kwani tofauti na vyama vingine, ni hivi vitatu tu ndio kwa zaidi ya miaka kumi vimeonyesha 'consistency', 'organisation na 'institutionalization';
Lakini pamoja na haya, vyama hivi vitatu kimsingi vinakabiliwa na tatizo moja kubwa – havina utofauti wowote wa maana in terms of Vision, Outlook & Major Policies; Hata CCM ambayo inajisifia kuwa na sera bora, sera zake zimeshindwa kuleta manufaa ya maana kwa wananchi walio wengi (vijijini). Mbaya zaidi, vyama vyote hivi vitatu vinategemea wahisani (donor – dependent); Pili, vyama vyote hivi vina abudu sera za uliberali mamboleo - liberalisation, privatization, marketization bila ya mchujo na matokeo yake ni ‘Maisha Bora Kwa Walio Wachache' kwani huo ndio msingi wa ‘Washington Consensus'; Wasiwasi unakuwa mkubwa zzaidi pale mtu unapobaini kwamba hakuna hata chama kimoja kinachoweka wazi jinsi gani kinajenga dira mbadala ya taifa ambayo ni home - driven (badala ya donor - driven), na havina mikakati ‘elaborate' ya kujenga ‘a democratic economy'; Katika suala la kujenga mfumo wa utawala ambao utakuwa na manufaa ya watanzania walio wengi i.e. wanavijiji, pengine Chadema kidogo imeonyesha nia kupitia sera yake ya majimbo na pia uasisi wa mabadiliko ya katiba mpya;
Swali linalofuatia ni - Je, katika mazingira ya namna hii, tunapoelekea Uchaguzi mkuu wa 2015, wapiga kura wa Tanzania wanaenda kupigia kura kitu gani hasa/kuchagua kitu gani hasa?
Mwaka 2005, Profesa Issa Shivji alichapisha makala moja ambayo ililenga kuchambua choices walizokuwa nazo watanzania kuelekea uchaguzi mkuu wa 2005; Katika uchambuzi wake, aligawanya ‘choices' za watanzania katika makundi makuu matatu. Nina amini kwamba uchambuzi huu wa Profesa Shivji bado ni relevant kwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao (2015). Shivji alijadili choices za watanzania katika makundi yafuatayo:
1. The Common Sense Choice
2. The Pragmatic Choice
3. The Rational Choice
Huku akisema kwamba kuna jingine – ‘The principled Choice', lipo kinadharia zaidi kuliko kivitendo. Kwa mujibu wa Shivji, mvuto kwa kundi hili ni ‘unique principles and policies' za vyama husika na anajadili kwamba ‘principled choice' kwa bahati mbaya bado haipo Tanzania na hoja ya msingi katika hili ni kwamba kimsingi hauwezi kutofautisha sera za vyama vyote vikuu vya siasa Tanzania vya - CCM, Chadema na CUF (rejea mjadala hapo juu kuhusu vyama vya siasa kuwa donor – driven). Kwa muktadha huu, Shivji anajadili choice kuu tatu zilizopo Tanzania ni kama ifuatavyo:
- The Common Sense Choice
Hili ni kundi la kwanza kwa mujibu wa Shivji. Njia rahisi inayowekwa na Shivji kutusaidia kuelewa nature ya kundi hili ni kulifikiria katika muktadha wa dhana maarufu isemayo kwamba:
"Better the devil you know than the devil you do not know";
Lakini haraka haraka, Shivji anasema kwamba – 'Common Sense, however is not always Good Sense', na kuzidi kufafanua kwamba:
"If you continue to strengthen the devil you know, there is a likelihood that he may be further emboldened to become even more devilish. These overwhelming electoral victories or what are called ‘ushindi wa kishindo', or with an even more ominous connotation ‘ushindi wa tsunami', have their consequences. Few parties and still fewer individuals who have got into the political seats with 70 – 80 percent of the vote can resist the arrogance of power. Self control in the exercise of power is a rare phenomenon."
2. The Pragmatic Choice
Kundi la pili kwa mujibu wa Shivji ni ‘Pragmatic' na anajadili kwamba kundi hili halipigi kura kufuatana na ‘instinct', ‘principle' au ‘reason'; Badala yake, Shivji anasema kundi hili linaendeshwa na ‘self interest' – bribes and favours, regional, racial, religious or gender prejudice and bias. Vile vile anasema kwamba kundi hili ndio kubwa kuliko makundi yote ya wapiga kura yaliyopo nchini, huku akisisitiza:
"We have already seen it in the internal nomination processes of the parties and should prepare ourselves to see more of it during the elections. Supposedly, there are watchdogs like the electoral commissions who are supposed to check such parties. But who watches the watchdogs"?
3. Rational Choice
Kwa mujibu wa Shivji, hili ni kundi la tatu na analijadili kwamba:
‘In absence of availability of principled choice, the most rational choice would be for a political configuration that assures stability, security, basic freedoms and checks on gross misuse of power. In our situation, theoretically speaking, it means a Union Parliament which would have a strong presence of the opposition; say 40% of the seats. As for the presidency, ideally, the winning candidate should end up with a slightly over 50% of the votes. In other words, ‘ushindi wa kishindo' should disappear from our political scene"
Lakini Shivji anajenga hoja kwamba watanzania kuwa na ‘rational choice' haina maana kwamba its a principled choice (rejea maana ya principled choice huko juu); Conclusion tunayoweza kuipata kwa shivji katika hili ni kwamba kwa vile Tanzania haina principled choice, watanzania wenye nia ya kutumia haki yao ya kujiletea mabadiliko watapigia kura Mgombea Urais kwa mtindo wa ‘rational choice', na wpiga kura wa namna hii hawatakuwa wengi sana ikifananishwa na wa makundi mengine – yani the ‘common sense and/or pragmatic';
Swali la kufungua mjadala: Je, madhara ya hali hii kwa CCM na Chadema kuelekea 2015 ni Yepi?
- Kwa upande mmoja - kuhusiana na CCM na ni kwamba iwapo CCM itarudi Ikulu 2015, basi itakuwa kupitia kura za aina mbili tulizojadili yani – The Common Sense & Pragmatic Choices;
- Kwa upande mwingine - kuhusiana na Chadema ni kwamba iwapo Chadema itafanikiwa kuingia ikulu 2015, basi itakuwa kupitia aina moja tu ya kura - the Rational Choice;
Hitimisho
Nikianza na Chadema - ni rahisi kubaini kwanini uchaguzi ujao (2015) Chadema haitapata kura za kutosha kuingia ikulu kwani mtaji mkubwa wa Chadema ni ‘rational votes' ambazo kwa bahati mbaya au nzuri kutegemea mtu upo upande upi wa hoja, kwa ngazi ya urais, ‘rational votes' hazitakuwa nyingi uchaguzi wa 2015 ikifananishwa na ‘common sense' and ‘pragmatic votes'; Lakini huko mbeleni (beyond 2015), kuna uwezekano mkubwa wa rational votes kuongezeka hasa kutegemeana na Umoja, Mshikamano, Uvumilivu na Ukomavu wa Chadema Kisiasa; Huu ndio mtaji mkubwa wa Chadema huko mbeleni, hasa iwapo wataweza kuepuka mtego wa kukataa matokeo 2015, kwani kitendo cha kupinga matokeo 2015 kitaleta vurugu na kuzidi kutengeneza ‘common sense' and ‘pragmatic voters' (hasa vijijini)ambao ndio imekuwa ni nguzo kuu ya CCM; Kwa maana hii, iwapo Chadema itashindwa ngazi ya Urais 2015, itakuwa muhimu sana waepuke kuitwa chama cha vurugu kwa kukataa matokeo na kuifanya nchi isitawalike; Pamoja na uchache wa Rational votes ngazi ya Urais Tanzania ya leo, hili ndio tanuri la vyama makini kuzalisha principled voters, hasa iwapo vitafanikiwa kuja na sera mbadala za uliberali mamboleo ambao hauna msaada wowote kwa watanzania walio wengi;
Nikimalizia na CCM, ni muhimu CCM ibadilike sasa, vinginevyo iwapo CCM itaendelea kukataa kubadilika, basi itambue kwamba ingawa uwezekano wake kushinda Urais 2015 ni mkubwa kupitia kwa common sense & pragmatic votes, suala la kutegemea such votes is a short lived strategy and it is more of a POLITICAL LIABILITY kuliko POLITICAL ASSET; Baada ya uchaguzi wa 2015, ni dhahiri kwamba Rais yoyote wa kupitia CCM Chini ya CCM iliyokataa mabadiliko hatoweza kuleta mabadiliko yoyote ya maana kwa watanzania walio wengi (vijijini), hivyo the real value katika siasa za nchi will continue to be on rational voters na hawa watazidi kuongezeka na vyama makini vitakuwa na fursa ya kuwatumia vyema kuwabadilisha kuwa principled voters, huku sala za Mwalimu Nyerere to the Socialist God zikizidi kujibiwa;
