Tatizo la Overproduction; Where do we Go From Here..... (A Chinese Case Study)

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Feb 26, 2014
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Pre-amble: Naongelea Dunia kwa Ujumla na Sio Nchi / Taifa

Ni kawaida kwenye Ubepari kutokea tatizo la overproduction; na hili likitokea wazalishaji wanapunguza uzalishaji jambo ambalo linasababisha uchumi wa wakati huo kushuka na matatizo ya ajira... Kinadharia Over Production inasababisha ushukaji wa bei kwa vitu kukosa demand lakini ki-uhalisia overproduction inatengeneza ukosefu wa ajira pia...

Kwa Ufupi nimechukua article Kuhusu kinachoikumba China kwa sasa na dunia kuilaumu kwamba inatengeneza zaidi ya uhitaji jambo ambalo linaweza kuleta Protectionism (na sababu we have been here before) na kufanya hivyo hakukuleta tija...... Nadhani ni wakati wa kujiuliza ni kipi kifanyike (Automation imebadilisha Rules of the Game)

The West says China makes too much. Its workers disagree​

By Laura Bicker,China Correspondent, BBC News

Ren Wenbing is reluctant to leave the hollowed-out brick shell which was once a thriving factory in China's manufacturing hub of Dongguan.

"All the workers feel astonished," says the 54-year-old as he points out where he once assembled furniture and where everyone would gather to eat lunch.

The owner of the company has moved production to South East Asia to cut costs. Mr Ren says he is owed more than 80,000 RMB ($11,000; £8,800) in redundancy pay, which could take him years to earn.

"We are disappointed, and we grieve," he adds, as a machine takes a sledgehammer to the windows.

Mr Ren is not just mourning the loss of a furniture firm. He grieves for the passing of China's once unstoppable economy, which is making it harder for millions of workers to find a job.

For people like him, not enough is now made in China.

But the West has been accusing China of making far too much - it was the dominant message during US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's recent visit. She chided Beijing for "unfair economic practices," for producing more than it needs or the world could afford to absorb.

The "Made in China" brand that is etched, sewn or branded on t-shirts, tables and TVs in so many homes around the world is changing. It is now at the heart of the electric cars that are pouring into Germany, and the solar panels that are powering Europe's renewable policies. And that is worrying the West.

Rising trade tensions with the United States, strict Covid lockdowns and a global downturn mean some manufacturers who once flocked to Chinese shores are looking elsewhere. Foreign investment in the country is at a 30-year low.

But now the old industrial pillars of furniture, clothing and electrical goods are struggling, Beijing is looking to its "new productive forces": solar panels, lithium batteries and electric cars.

"We are exporting to the UK, Belgium, Germany, mostly European countries, but also to Africa, Australia, South America, North America and also South East Asia," salesperson Yan Mu says as he shows off the company's storage batteries.

His is one of the stalls at an exhibition held by hundreds of green energy storage companies in a refurbished and repurposed steel plant on the edge of Beijing.

"I think Chinese companies are leading the whole energy storage market. With innovation, with new technologies, battery sales, PCS [power conversion systems]... well, everything. Right now, I think 80% to 90% of the energy storage equipment are designed and manufactured in China."

A few hours' drive from Dongguan, there are more signs of the scale of this industry: there are solar panels as far as the eye can see.

China has installed more solar panels in the last year than the United States has managed to build in a decade, the mass manufacturing going on here driving the cost down to half of what it was last year.

Manufacturers across Europe are struggling to compete. In 2023, 97% of the solar panels installed across Europe came from China.

But China's new industries are far less labour-intensive than the ones that once fuelled its spectacular growth - and they require specialised, high-skilled workers and, increasingly, robots. While China's youth unemployment has made the bigger headlines, its overall urban unemployment rate is still over 5%.

The US and the European Union believe this is how China is trying to save its economy - producing cut-price and state-subsidised green technology to sell abroad. They say it's a tactic that is driving down the cost of solar panels and other emerging technology and driving Western firms out of business.

China says its success is down to innovation, not state subsidies and there is a demand for their exports as countries transition from fossil fuels to more climate-friendly sources of energy.

Out with the old​

But Mr Ren can't find a job in China's new success story.

He left his family farm in Henan as a teenager and moved to Dongguan, a city in the southern coastal Guangdong province with so many manufacturers it has become known as the "factory of the world". On one occasion, he didn't return home for 11 years.

He is one of nearly 300 million migrant workers who've moved from villages across China to major cities in search of work. Most leave their families behind: Mr Ren's children are being raised by their grandparents while he and his wife live in Dongguan, where three-quarters of the city's 10 million residents are thought to be migrants.

"My children of course miss me," he says, adding he and his wife "had no choice".

"We didn't earn much. After the daily costs of living, the money we sent home for our parents, the money for our children's education... we didn't have much left."

"All the migrant workers face this," he continues. "If we want to provide for our elderly and our children, we have to live away from our loved ones and work in other provinces. This is the reality."

Now, as China's future sits at a crossroads, so too do their lives.

Ren and his wife now live in a room that can fit only one bed and a side table. That is where he sits as he scrolls through his phone looking for job advertisements. Most factories are offering less than the 16RMB ($2.50; £2) per hour minimum wage. One advert offered only 13RMB an hour.

He needs his redundancy money and has gone to court to get it. But the owner appears to have left the country, leaving him and some 300 former colleagues in limbo.


"We witnessed the changes in Dongguan and have strong feelings for this land. This is our second home. We'd feel very sad and lost if we need to leave here. We won't forget what the local government did trying to give us more benefits. It's because of the government policies which gave us jobs and we were able to earn a living."

From around the mid-1980s, just after China opened to the world, Dongguan became the country's leading export and manufacturing base. It churned out cheap clothes, toys and shoes.

Back then, tens of thousands of workers would have queued at the gates to start their shift making shoes to export to the United States.

But in more recent years, workers began to demand higher wages, while companies began cutting prices in order to win contracts, squeezing profits further. Then Donald Trump arrived in the White House, slapping tariffs on Chinese products - including shoes. Firms - searching for cheaper running costs and protection from the US-China trade wars - began to look elsewhere.

Now in one almost abandoned quarter of Dongguan, there are miles of empty low-rise buildings which look like ghost factories. The only inhabitant is a solitary security guard waving away any curious onlookers.

The constant hum of sewing machines has been replaced by a chorus of birdsong and the stubborn roots of banyan trees have worked their way under the concrete skeletons of buildings. The warm and often humid southern climate is helping nature take over what man has left behind.

In with the new​

Dongguan is not giving up though: it is trying to transform itself as a high-tech hub to try to restore some of its former glory. On the edge of Songshan Lake, the technology giant Huawei has been building a campus to house 25,000 employees. There's a new science park and a string of hotels.

Alan Lee is sleeping in his freshly-painted office as he tries to capitalise on the city's new direction. The 32-year-old - having survived the economic downturn to start his business - has set his sights on exporting high-tech machinery to Europe.

"Lots of people lost their jobs in recent years. People went into debt and were forced to sell their properties. We see that many companies suffer declining demands in exports. The managers face a lot of financial pressure and even have to close their factories. We chose to focus on trade so we don't have pressure on production."

But these jobs require knowledge of the new tech skills which people like Mr Ren have yet to acquire. His hopes of receiving the money he is owed are fading.

He thinks about what he will tell his children about why their father stayed away.

"I don't know how to give a good answer. I could simply say - your mother and I are away because we want to give a better life and better education. We hope you can learn things so that in future you don't need to work as hard as us."
 
Well, huwezi kuzuia mvua
'You can't stop the waves, but you can learn to surf.'

Huu ni wakati wa Automation na Information Technology efficiency imeongezeka maradufu na nguvu kazi haina uhitaji tena... kwahio models zilizotufaa kipindi cha uzalishaji duni au industrial revolution haziwezi kufaa leo hii...

The World Systems needs to be Overhauled and as what is happening now is not fit for purpose....

Kitakachotokea ni kwamba nchi zitaanza Protectionism (China sasa hivi ni kama ana-supply solar panels na electronics nyingine zaidi ya asilimia 90 ya World Supply; Nchi za western can not compete kwahio unakuta huko wanakosa ajira, na kufunga viwanda vyao...; Watakachofanya na kitakuwa hakina faida kwa Dunia ni kuzuia Bidhaa za China kwao ili walinde ajira lakini mtu wa mwisho itabidi anunue kwa Bei kubwa na China akikosa wateja itabidi watu kule wakose kazi - Lose - Lose Situation
 
Soko la bidhaa za china ni kubwa sana especially ulimwengu wa tatu, hiyo overproduction ya china ni propaganda za west
Ulimwengu wa 3,biashara mnayofanya na china ni kama kununua miswaki supermarket,west wao wananunua fridge,tv,redio,oven,AC.

Yaani thamani yenu ni ndogo sana ktk biashara na china.
 
Pre-amble: Naongelea Dunia kwa Ujumla na Sio Nchi / Taifa

Ni kawaida kwenye Ubepari kutokea tatizo la overproduction; na hili likitokea wazalishaji wanapunguza uzalishaji jambo ambalo linasababisha uchumi wa wakati huo kushuka na matatizo ya ajira... Kinadharia Over Production inasababisha ushukaji wa bei kwa vitu kukosa demand lakini ki-uhalisia overproduction inatengeneza ukosefu wa ajira pia...

Kwa Ufupi nimechukua article Kuhusu kinachoikumba China kwa sasa na dunia kuilaumu kwamba inatengeneza zaidi ya uhitaji jambo ambalo linaweza kuleta Protectionism (na sababu we have been here before) na kufanya hivyo hakukuleta tija...... Nadhani ni wakati wa kujiuliza ni kipi kifanyike (Automation imebadilisha Rules of the Game)
Lakini ni hyo overproduction ndo ilofanya china ikaendelea !!

Imezalisha vitu vya kuitosha dunia na kubaki
 
Lakini ni hyo overproduction ndo ilofanya china ikaendelea !!

Imezalisha vitu vya kuitosha dunia na kubaki
Ndio sababu wanaonywa,kwamba matokeo yake ni nini!!!!

Leo hii watu wanatabiri kwa kasi ya china ukuaji wa uchumi kuna hatari huko mbele ikasimama kabisa.

Fikiria kila nchi ikiiga move zake ambazo ni rahisi tu,nani atanunua bidhaa zake??
 
'You can't stop the waves, but you can learn to surf.'

Huu ni wakati wa Automation na Information Technology efficiency imeongezeka maradufu na nguvu kazi haina uhitaji tena... kwahio models zilizotufaa kipindi cha uzalishaji duni au industrial revolution haziwezi kufaa leo hii...

The World Systems needs to be Overhauled and as what is happening now is not fit for purpose....

Kitakachotokea ni kwamba nchi zitaanza Protectionism (China sasa hivi ni kama ana-supply solar panels na electronics nyingine zaidi ya asilimia 90 ya World Supply; Nchi za western can not compete kwahio unakuta huko wanakosa ajira, na kufunga viwanda vyao...; Watakachofanya na kitakuwa hakina faida kwa Dunia ni kuzuia Bidhaa za China kwao ili walinde ajira lakini mtu wa mwisho itabidi anunue kwa Bei kubwa na China akikosa wateja itabidi watu kule wakose kazi - Lose - Lose Situation
Prtotectionism haikwepeki, unakumbuka kipindi cha nyuma mafundi seremala hapa bongo walivyoanza kufunga workshop zao? Ila baada ya Magu kuamrisha kodi nzito kwa furniture toke nje ndio sasa tunaona workshop za mafundi seremala wa Vitanda , Masofa nk. kwa sasa zimerudi, na faida kubwa ni kwamba material wanazotumia wabongo ni mbao halisi, kule China walikuwa wanatumia chenga za maranda ya mbao.., poor quality ila good looks. Huku ni poor looks ila durable
 
Lakini ni hyo overproduction ndo ilofanya china ikaendelea !!

Imezalisha vitu vya kuitosha dunia na kubaki
Ndio maana mwanzo nimesema siongelei China pekee (China ni Case Study ambapo hata wao kuna Ukosefu wa Ajira) naongelea Dunia - Wala kwa China sio Overproduction sababu China ina-supply ulimwengu ila kwa zile nchi zinazoagiza ambazo hawawezi ku-compete na China kwao inabidi waache hizo production sababu Bei zao zinakuwa kubwa zaidi (ni rahisi kuagiza kuliko kutengeneza)

Kwahio hizo nchi zinaweza kwa kupoza hii shida kuamua kuongeza kodi bidhaa za China au kukataza zisiingie Jambo ambalo ni hatari kwa dunia nzima...., unaweza kujikuta unavaa shati bei mara kumi na quality mbovu ukivaa mara mbili limechanika...., Unaweza kunganganiza watu wanunue TanBond kwa kukataa Blueband ila je Tan bond ni bora kuliko hio Blueband (na kama sio bora nani anafaidika hapo)
 
Ndio sababu wanaonywa,kwamba matokeo yake ni nini!!!!
Wanaonywa na West sababu sio West wala nchi yoyote inaweza kushindana na China..., Wachina ni wachapakazi, wanachukua ujira mdogo, sio wabishi na wanaweza ku-adapt kwa kasi sana..., Unadhani kwanini Viwanda vya Iphone vipo China au India na sio USA ? Jibu ni Production Cost....
Leo hii watu wanatabiri kwa kasi ya china ukuaji wa uchumi kuna hatari huko mbele ikasimama kabisa.
Uchumi wa Dunia (Capitalism as we know it) inabidi ubadilike sio China tu..., Capitalism can not Survive hii Efficiency inayoletwa na automation hivyo kutokuwa na uhitaji wa nguvu kazi... Watu watapata wapi pesa ya kuendelea kufanya manunuzi ? Na manunuzi Consumerism ndio fuel inayoendesha Capitalism
Fikiria kila nchi ikiiga move zake ambazo ni rahisi tu,nani atanunua bidhaa zake??
Hakuna nchi inayoweza kufanya kama China tungeweza hata nguo tu na viatu tungeweza kufanya wenyewe ila ndio hivyo hata toothpick ni cheaper kuitoa China kuliko wewe kutengeneza
 
Prtotectionism haikwepeki, unakumbuka kipindi cha nyuma mafundi seremala hapa bongo walivyoanza kufunga workshop zao? Ila baada ya Magu kuamrisha kodi nzito kwa furniture toke nje ndio sasa tunaona workshop za mafundi seremala wa Vitanda , Masofa nk. kwa sasa zimerudi, na faida kubwa ni kwamba material wanazotumia wabongo ni mbao halisi, kule China walikuwa wanatumia chenga za maranda ya mbao.., poor quality ila good looks. Huku ni poor looks ila durable
Protectionism ilifanyika sana kipindi cha nyuma ila kilichotokea ni hasara kwa Dunia nzima..., Kuna kipindi USA alikuwa ndio jemedari wa kutengeneza magari na innovation za kina Ford.., baada ya kufanya Protectionism kina Toyota kwa kufanya kazi na wengine na kuruhusu competition ikapelekea innovation......

Leo ukatae furniture za mchina na yeye akisema hataki parachichi zako ? Kama kweli furniture za Bongo ni nzuri kuliko mchina kwanini mteja anunue mchina.... Am all for self reliance lakini more than that ninajua Mr Adam alimaanisha nini aliposema......

It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.

Kama hatuwezi kuengeneza furniture cheaply basi tujikite tunachoweza zaidi / mfano labda hospitality kule Serengeti (Mchina hawezi akatengeneza Serengeti yake) Au tuige kwanini wao zinakuwa cheap hivyo tutengeneze huku na kuuza cheap (sababu kutakuwa hakuna transport cost wala kodi)
 
Wanaonywa na West sababu sio West wala nchi yoyote inaweza kushindana na China..., Wachina ni wachapakazi, wanachukua ujira mdogo, sio wabishi na wanaweza ku-adapt kwa kasi sana..., Unadhani kwanini Viwanda vya Iphone vipo China au India na sio USA ? Jibu ni Production Cost....
Uchumi sio kampeni za siasa ni matokeo ya kazi zenye thamani,na huwa una kanuni zake,huwezi kuzifunja kwa namna yako wewe.hao wachina wanaofuatwa kwa gharama ndogo za uzalishaji,unajua kwamba wanatakiwa kuongezwa malipo kutokana na gharama za maisha kukua??huoni kwamba wanarudi kule kule iliko US??
Uchumi wa Dunia (Capitalism as we know it) inabidi ubadilike sio China tu..., Capitalism can not Survive hii Efficiency inayoletwa na automation hivyo kutokuwa na uhitaji wa nguvu kazi... Watu watapata wapi pesa ya kuendelea kufanya manunuzi ? Na manunuzi Consumerism ndio fuel inayoendesha Capitalism
Kumbe sio uongo anachoambiwa china ni kitu halisi.
Hakuna nchi inayoweza kufanya kama China tungeweza hata nguo tu na viatu tungeweza kufanya wenyewe ila ndio hivyo hata toothpick ni cheaper kuitoa China kuliko wewe kutengeneza
Kama wewe huwezi usiseme haiwezekani,unajua india ni ya ngapi kiuchumi duniani??ina mikakati gani ya kimaendeleo??
Walikopita china india ndiko huko wanafata,viwanda kama vga Apple tayari vimenza hatua za kuhamia india maana china kumeshaanza kuchacha na pili kumekuwa si kwa kutabirika kutokana na misuguano ya mara kwa mara na magahribu.
 
Uchumi sio kampeni za siasa ni matokeo ya kazi zenye thamani,na huwa una kanuni zake,huwezi kuzifunja kwa namna yako wewe.hao wachina wanaofuatwa kwa gharama ndogo za uzalishaji,unajua kwamba wanatakiwa kuongezwa malipo kutokana na gharama za maisha kukua??huoni kwamba wanarudi kule kule iliko US??
Wanatakiwa kuongezewa pesa na nani ? Capitalism ni Profit at all costs sio Welfare..., (Ingawa China a Market Socialist) angalau kuna some State companies nyingi ila muwekezaji mwingine yeye yupo answerable kwa shareholder kwahio kama kuna uwezekano wa kupata mtu kwa pesa ndogo hawezi kukupa wewe pesa zaidi...

Na hapa kuna issue ya Automation ambayo tunapoelekea wala mtu hatahitajika tena let alone mtu wa ujira mdogo....
Kumbe sio uongo anachoambiwa china ni kitu halisi.
Overproduction kwa dunia kuisambazia bidhaa zake ila kwa wachina bado kuna wahitaji wa kazi / shughuli hivyo kwao wanaona hio sio overproduction ; pili automation inapunguza uhitaji wa hao watu hata kama production ikibakia constant na mwisho kabisa bado uhitaji wa bidhaa za China upo (Ina-supply more than 90% ya solar panels za dunia na inafanya hivyo cheaper than anyone can....
Kama wewe huwezi usiseme haiwezekani,unajua india ni ya ngapi kiuchumi duniani??ina mikakati gani ya kimaendeleo??
Tusiongelee kwanza Uchumi wa kwenye makaratasi India pamoja na huo uchumi wao ni nchi yenye masikini wengi wa kutupwa na ajira bado ni tatizo na hata hivyo bado unajijibu western hawewezi kupambana na nchi ambazo zina production cost ndogo; kwahio huwezi kushindana na watu kama China kutokana na ukweli kwamba Production cost kule ni ndogo....
Walikopita china india ndiko huko wanafata,viwanda kama vga Apple tayari vimenza hatua za kuhamia india maana china kumeshaanza kuchacha na pili kumekuwa si kwa kutabirika kutokana na misuguano ya mara kwa mara na magahribu.
Corporations hazina nchi zinaweza kuhama wakati wowote kama tu wanapokwenda kutakuwa na a Better Bottom Line.....; Na hio better bottom line inatokana na cheap labor..., wewe unaongelea leo Viwanda vya Adidas na Nike vimekuwepo India tangu enzi na enzi..., kwanini sababu watu wanakaa kwenye ma-domitory na kulipwa peanuts kulinganisha na kama kingekuwepo USA
1713518779925.png

Lakini with automation huenda hata hao waliokuwa wanapata hizo peanuts hivyo kuweza kutuma vijisenti makwao hio ikawa historia....
 
Protectionism ilifanyika sana kipindi cha nyuma ila kilichotokea ni hasara kwa Dunia nzima..., Kuna kipindi USA alikuwa ndio jemedari wa kutengeneza magari na innovation za kina Ford.., baada ya kufanya Protectionism kina Toyota kwa kufanya kazi na wengine na kuruhusu competition ikapelekea innovation......

Leo ukatae furniture za mchina na yeye akisema hataki parachichi zako ? Kama kweli furniture za Bongo ni nzuri kuliko mchina kwanini mteja anunue mchina.... Am all for self reliance lakini more than that ninajua Mr Adam alimaanisha nini aliposema......

It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.

Kama hatuwezi kuengeneza furniture cheaply basi tujikite tunachoweza zaidi / mfano labda hospitality kule Serengeti (Mchina hawezi akatengeneza Serengeti yake) Au tuige kwanini wao zinakuwa cheap hivyo tutengeneze huku na kuuza cheap (sababu kutakuwa hakuna transport cost wala kodi)
Okay, Magu alijua kwamba huwezi zalisja vitu cheaply kama nishati ni expensive mara 10 ya mpinzani wako kwenye soko, hivyo akajenga Rufiji, cha ajabu huyu Mama anakuja kusema hashushi bei, ni vile tu mwanasheria wangu yupo likizo, ila…
 
Okay, Magu alijua kwamba huwezi zalisja vitu cheaply kama nishati ni expensive mara 10 ya mpinzani wako kwenye soko, hivyo akajenga Rufiji, cha ajabu huyu Mama anakuja kusema hashushi bei, ni vile tu mwanasheria wangu yupo likizo, ila…
Magu angalau alikuwa na Vision Like him or hate Him lakini alikuwa mtendaji na mchapakazi (the guy would have made a great Prime Minister)

Nishati ikishuka bei hata tusipozalisha na kuuza angalau tutatumia majiko yetu ya umeme kupikia hence tutapunguza kununua LPG ambayo inazidi kutu-cost...; Anyway sasa hivi tumeamua kuingia mikataba na EU kufungulia kila kitu ni kwamba tutakuwa flooded na junks kutoka huko na sisi hatuwezi kupeleka junks zetu (tutaambiwa we can not meet the quality standard)

Na vile ambavyo tungeweza hata kukodi experts ili tuweze kubaki na 100 % (Bandari et al) na vyenyewe tunawapa so called wawekezaji... Nachelea kusema Kesho yetu itakuwa ngumu sana....
 
Magu angalau alikuwa na Vision Like him or hate Him lakini alikuwa mtendaji na mchapakazi (the guy would have made a great Prime Minister)

Nishati ikishuka bei hata tusipozalisha na kuuza angalau tutatumia majiko yetu ya umeme kupikia hence tutapunguza kununua LPG ambayo inazidi kutu-cost...; Anyway sasa hivi tumeamua kuingia mikataba na EU kufungulia kila kitu ni kwamba tutakuwa flooded na junks kutoka huko na sisi hatuwezi kupeleka junks zetu (tutaambiwa we can not meet the quality standard)

Na vile ambavyo tungeweza hata kukodi experts ili tuweze kubaki na 100 % (Bandari et al) na vyenyewe tunawapa so called wawekezaji... Nachelea kusema Kesho yetu itakuwa ngumu sana....
Actually, we are done for.., i don knw, labda Mungu anakusudi lake kutuletea huyu mama, atuchemshe kabisa ili akili zizibuke , who knows..
 
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