Tariff war initiated by Donald Trump; who will win, America or China?

Tariff war initiated by Donald Trump; who will win, America or China?

dhi62

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Donald Trump was re-elected as the 47th President of the United States of America with the promise of making America Great Again. It sounds wonderful right? It is true that over years American peoples have suffered a lot from rising costs of living, stagnated wages, rising housing prices and employment challenges. On another hand American government has waged countless wars spending trillions of American taxpayers’ money to finance these wars. Guess who benefited the most from these wars, the American Corporations and the Wall Street Moguls. What the middle and working class benefited most? More taxes and austerity measures.

During this time no strong program implemented to improve industrial production and enhance competitiveness of American products (the so called made in America) on international markets expect handsome contracts to defence firms likes of Boeing, Raytheon, Lochhead Martins etc. To make the matter worse, the Wall Street CEOs shifted the American manufacturing jobs to China. Outsourcing more than 90% of what is produced in America and America turned into assembly and logo parching before dispatching the product to the market. I hope you know big brands like Hermes, Gucci, LV just to mention few; all these big brands manufacture their products in China not in America or Europe. Over time, the Chinese people amassed skills, workmanship, generated jobs, and incomes and the American CEOs accumulated huge profits and shooting corporations indices on the Wall Street Market.

Then come the 47th President with the promise to rectify all these. He was elected on these promises and as he set foot in office, he come up with more tariffs to the partner and foe/rogue countries (as they call), from China to EU. Not even Canadian were left out. In these tariff wars, the MAGA supporters believed every country will bow to the pressure and surrender to the American Demands. In the process something seemed off, America lacked strategy and plan to execute their tariff war!! Instead of seeking better trade terms it seemed much like bullying other Countries. To complicate the matter, Donald Trump declared intention to take over Canada, Greenland, Panama, change the name of Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America, take down Iran, cut American security umbrella to the European country, put on hold American support to international organisations like WHO, cut off Federal Workers (layoffs) and defunding American High learning Institutions.

After the announcement of tariffs, different countries come up with retaliatory tariffs on American goods and some backed down surrendering to the American President Mercy. Out of targeted Countries, China put in place retaliatory tariffs on American goods without the blink of an eye. At first Donald Trump impose 10% tariff on China, introduced another 10% to make it 20% and the Chinese seemed to be ok but when Trump added another 34% to make it 54%, the Chinese seemed to realise these were not just mere tariffs but bullying and disruption Chinese development. The Chinese retaliated with 34% tariff on all American goods. Trump added another 50% to make it 104% and the Chinese made the same move and added 50% to make it 84%. The race didn’t end there, Trump added another 41% to make it 145% and the Chinese added 41% to make it 125%. Chinese went beyond tariff, restricting sale of rare metals to America and restricting Chinese carriers from acquiring Boeing planes.

It seemed the race will go on, but the wall Street CEO the trusted allies of Trump Administration felt the pressure; the stock market plummeted losing trillions in value over few days, outsourced parts tariff jeopardised the competitive tech giants‘ products like Apple’s flagship product iPhone 16 pro.

To ease this pressure Donald Trump paused tariff on smartphones and computer parts from China but Chinese did not waver or take mirrored actions. While the world is still digesting this and figure the end situation; China is weaponizing the Social media like Tik tok, videos of Chinese manufacturers and factory workers showcasing different products like luxury bags made in China only to be shipped to America and Europe for being log and put into market. This is not only humiliating these big luxury brands but may have far reaching effects and affect these companies beyond tariff scope!!

May take;-

Even the Americans now are worrying and seem to realise Donald Trump didn’t have plan and strategy to navigate this self-initiated war. In addition, what Americans believed was their victory cards now seemed on the hands of the competitor!! What will happen?

  1. The American world hegemony will shake and change status quo. It may not be overnight, but the journey has begun.
  2. While the America showcasing bullying behaviour, China is showing restraint and leadership to further cooperation and shared development.
  3. The American dollar dominance and store of value status is declining.
  4. American partner countries reassessing their partnership and diversifying to reduce overdependence on American (Canada stretching hand to Europe, Europe increasing their defence budgets for self-reliance), some American Partner countries extending cooperation gesture to China).
  5. Made in America is far from simple task to achieve, it needs groundwork to restore the lacking infrastructures before actual shifting manufacturing back to American and make products made in America competitive.
  6. Americans are bracing for high costs of goods that are linked to China reflecting tariff impacts.
  7. Wall Streets Moguls are adjusting to the reality of possible recession or something worse.
Overall, these will hurt global supply chain and affection manufacturing and trade patterns. Consumers will be affected more than producers. The world economy makes experience short term recession and slowed production coupled with rising rates of unemployment.
 
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