Sarafu Moja Afrika Mashariki?

Exaud J. Makyao said:

Mawazo mazuri.
Naamini wachambuzi wa masuala ya uchumi watakuwa na neno la kusema.
Hata hivyo utabiri wa kuanguka kwa GBP utategemea sana athari zitakazo tokana na juhudi za kuchochea uchumi zianazofanywa na Uingereza na mataifa yale yenye strong Economies.

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Katika uchumi ambao hali yake bado ni tete ni UK. Maana kama utakumbuka kwamba bado wao wanaongeza pesa kwenye mzunguko na matumaini yako mbali. Wanatumia approach inayoitwa quantitative easing. Km utakumbuka vyema pia Governor wa EU miezi kadhaa iliyopita alisema anaiona UK sasa inaelekea kujiunga na EMU. Uchumi wa kuchangia unakuwa na nguvu.
Back to EA, suala la sarafu ni jema pia kwa Watanzania. Tanzania wanaplenty urable land, inayofaa kwenye kilimo, wanafursa kwenye madini, low level of political risks nk. Ingawa kuna matatizo pia kama inadquate skills nk. Lakini suala la kushare currency ni muhim saana.

bnhai said:

Katika uchumi ambao hali yake bado ni tete ni UK. Maana kama utakumbuka kwamba bado wao wanaongeza pesa kwenye mzunguko na matumaini yako mbali. Wanatumia approach inayoitwa quantitative easing. Km utakumbuka vyema pia Governor wa EU miezi kadhaa iliyopita alisema anaiona UK sasa inaelekea kujiunga na EMU. Uchumi wa kuchangia unakuwa na nguvu.
Back to EA, suala la sarafu ni jema pia kwa Watanzania. Tanzania wanaplenty urable land, inayofaa kwenye kilimo, wanafursa kwenye madini, low level of political risks nk. Ingawa kuna matatizo pia kama inadquate skills nk. Lakini suala la kushare currency ni muhim saana.

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Je sera za Uchumi zinazoongoza nchi ya Tanzania kwa sasa zinaupeleka uchumi kuliko tarajiwa?

Exaud J. Makyao said:

Je sera za Uchumi zinazoongoza nchi ya Tanzania kwa sasa zinaupeleka uchumi kuliko tarajiwa?

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Kwa issue ya uchumi sasa hivi ni complex maana kama suala ni sera hakuna sera iliyosalimika mwaka huu kwenye crisis hata nchi kubwa ziliyumba vibaya saana. Hakuna cha kiongozi madhubuti wala weak. Utakumbuka mfumo wa kibepari ulionekana ndio unafaa kupambana na uchumi lakini recently tumeshuhudia mataifa makubwa yakifanya bail out na nationalisation. Kwahiyo suala la sera linakuwa ni nzuri au mbaya ceteris peribus hakuna mtetemeko.
Halafu zaidi ya hilo tunahitaji thread nyingine maana issue sio sera peke yake, tuendelee na sarafu kwenye thread hii ndio ushauri wangu

bnhai said:

Kwa issue ya uchumi sasa hivi ni complex maana kama suala ni sera hakuna sera iliyosalimika mwaka huu kwenye crisis hata nchi kubwa ziliyumba vibaya saana. Hakuna cha kiongozi madhubuti wala weak. Utakumbuka mfumo wa kibepari ulionekana ndio unafaa kupambana na uchumi lakini recently tumeshuhudia mataifa makubwa yakifanya bail out na nationalisation. Kwahiyo suala la sera linakuwa ni nzuri au mbaya ceteris peribus hakuna mtetemeko.
Halafu zaidi ya hilo tunahitaji thread nyingine maana issue sio sera peke yake, tuendelee na sarafu kwenye thread hii ndio ushauri wangu

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Mkuu BNHAI
Shilingi ya Kenya bado inaonekana kama ina nguvu zaidi ya ile ya TZ na Uganda kwa karibu ratio hii< 1:17:27
Tukiwa na sarafu moja kitaeleweka kweli?

Exaud J. Makyao said:

Mkuu BNHAI
Shilingi ya Kenya bado inaonekana kama ina nguvu zaidi ya ile ya TZ na Uganda kwa karibu ratio hii< 1:17:27
Tukiwa na sarafu moja kitaeleweka kweli?

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Yeni Japan ina thamani kidogo kuliko Rand: unataka kusema Japan uchumi wao dhaifu kuliko SA??

Muhimu ni change over time..say je kwa miaka 5 je shilingi ya Tz imeshuka kiasi gani kwa Kshs?

Ndo maana Paundi inafulia ukilinganisha na EURO kwani unashuka kwa kasi mno!

Mimi nafikiri kwanza wangezingatia faida na hasara za kuwa na hio sarafu moja.

Kwa mimi sifikirii kwamba Tanzania itanufaika na mpango huo kwa sasa kwa kuzingatia uchumi wake ambao naona ni tofauti kulinganisha na Kenya na Uganda.

Hata hivyo si vibaya tukaangalia faida za kuwa na sarafu moja.

Faida:

1. Sarafu moja itarekebisha tatizo la mwanguko wa sarafu kwa kila nchi kwa kuwa na "exchange rate" moja na itakuwa ina sifa kwamba ni sarafu pekee katika Afrika mashariki na hakutakuwa na safaru ingine ambayo itatumika. Hii pia itawasaidia waagizaji bidhaa kutoka nje kuwa na uhakika wa kutumia sarafu moja.

2. Itasaidia wasafiri katika Afrika Mashariki kuwa na sarafu moja ambayo wataitumia kuvuka nayo katika mipaka yetu bila kuwa na matatizo ya transactions kwani itakuwa ni hio moja tu.

3. Sarafu moja itasaidia wafanya biashara kuondokana na matatizo ya "paperwork" katika kubadilisha pesa na muda.

4. Sarafu moja itasababisha "interest rate" kushuka kwa kuangalia ni nchi gani yenye uchumi imara katia ya hizo na kutumia model ya uchumi wake. Hali hii itapelekea kuwa na sarafu imara na yenye kutambulika kimataifa na ndani ya Afrika Mashariki kutakuwa na ongezeko la ajira na uwekezaji kutoka wa wajasiri mali wa nchi hizo.

5. Suala la lugha litasaidia sana kwani kiswahili kitawekwa katika sarafu hio na itaeleweka kote katika Afrika Mashariki.

Hasara.

Haijulikani pesa itatoka wapi ya kutumika kuelimisha wananchi, kurekebisha pesa hio, kununua computers, kubadilisha mashine za kulipia fwedha hio na kadhalika. Au zitaombwa kutoka katika central bank kwa mfano BOT?

Pili, kupoteza utaifa kwa kuwa nyuma ya nchi zingine kama Kenya na Uganda ambazo uchumi wao ni bora kuliko wa Tanzania hasa kwenye maeneo kama kutunga sera za uchumi za Afrika Mashariki. je nani atasimamia?

Tatu, benki kuu ya nchi gani itasimamia inflation? Na ikumbukwe kwamba BOT haiwezi kusimamia mfumuko wa bei kwa kuangalia Benki Kuu za Uganda na Kenya.

Kuna sabau zingine ambazo wengine mnaweza kuongezea.

Mzalendohalisi said:

Yeni Japan ina thamani kidogo kuliko Rand: unataka kusema Japan uchumi wao dhaifu kuliko SA??

Muhimu ni change over time..say je kwa miaka 5 je shilingi ya Tz imeshuka kiasi gani kwa Kshs?

Ndo maana Paundi inafulia ukilinganisha na EURO kwani unashuka kwa kasi mno!

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Uchumi mzuri hautafsiri kwa measure ya one currency against another. Kuna viashiria vingi saana kuanzia consumer index, inflation, GDP etc. Mfano ukiitazama Kenya vizuri, utaona kuwa pesa yao bado inanguvu kuliko ya TZS na UGS lakini Kenya katika kipindi cha miaka hii miwili uchumi wake umekuwa tete hasa baada ya machafuko, political risks imeongezeka kwa hiyo hata potential investors wanahitaji return kubwa kucompensate kwa hiyo risks. Ndio maana kama ukitafuatilia takwimu za East Africa zinaonyesha mwaka huu angalau Tanzania imejitahidi saana kuuza bidhaa East Africa.
Tatizo jingine ni hili la balance of payment( Nadhani inaitwa Urari sina hakika). Hapa sasa ratio ya export na import nayo inadefine saana uimara wa uchumi na akiba ya fedha ya kigeni ambayo ni muhim saana kwa Taifa na mara nyingi ndio chanzo cha kuporomoka kwa Tsh. Mf kama consumer taste towards US dollar itaongezeka, yaani wafanyabiashara woote watoze kwa USD inamaana demand ya hiyo currency itaongezea in the end TSh ina depreciate ile currency inaappreciate. Ndio maana utaona miezi ya kuanzia July mpaka Nov shs huwa inafanya vizuri maana hatuagizi saana (low consumer tastes) na tunapata remitances ambazo zinaongeza pesa za kigeni na kashilingi kanapumua.
Kuhusu change overtime inaweza isiwe kipimo tosha. Nchi za Asia km Japan kumekuwa na intervention nyingi saana kwahiyo currency yenyewe haiwi determine na soko. Na kwa China mfano wao hawapo kwenye floating wanatumia fixed ndio maana mataifa mengine yanalalamika value za shares na other financial assets hazireflect uhalisia kwa China

Richard said:

Mimi nafikiri kwanza wangezingatia faida na hasara za kuwa na hio sarafu moja.

Kwa mimi sifikirii kwamba Tanzania itanufaika na mpango huo kwa sasa kwa kuzingatia uchumi wake ambao naona ni tofauti kulinganisha na Kenya na Uganda.

Hata hivyo si vibaya tukaangalia faida za kuwa na sarafu moja.

Faida:

1. Sarafu moja itarekebisha tatizo la mwanguko wa sarafu kwa kila nchi kwa kuwa na "exchange rate" moja na itakuwa ina sifa kwamba ni sarafu pekee katika Afrika mashariki na hakutakuwa na safaru ingine ambayo itatumika. Hii pia itawasaidia waagizaji bidhaa kutoka nje kuwa na uhakika wa kutumia sarafu moja.

2. Itasaidia wasafiri katika Afrika Mashariki kuwa na sarafu moja ambayo wataitumia kuvuka nayo katika mipaka yetu bila kuwa na matatizo ya transactions kwani itakuwa ni hio moja tu.

3. Sarafu moja itasaidia wafanya biashara kuondokana na matatizo ya "paperwork" katika kubadilisha pesa na muda.

4. Sarafu moja itasababisha "interest rate" kushuka kwa kuangalia ni nchi gani yenye uchumi imara katia ya hizo na kutumia model ya uchumi wake. Hali hii itapelekea kuwa na sarafu imara na yenye kutambulika kimataifa na ndani ya Afrika Mashariki kutakuwa na ongezeko la ajira na uwekezaji kutoka wa wajasiri mali wa nchi hizo.

5. Suala la lugha litasaidia sana kwani kiswahili kitawekwa katika sarafu hio na itaeleweka kote katika Afrika Mashariki.

Hasara.

Haijulikani pesa itatoka wapi ya kutumika kuelimisha wananchi, kurekebisha pesa hio, kununua computers, kubadilisha mashine za kulipia fwedha hio na kadhalika. Au zitaombwa kutoka katika central bank kwa mfano BOT?

Pili, kupoteza utaifa kwa kuwa nyuma ya nchi zingine kama Kenya na Uganda ambazo uchumi wao ni bora kuliko wa Tanzania hasa kwenye maeneo kama kutunga sera za uchumi za Afrika Mashariki. je nani atasimamia?

Tatu, benki kuu ya nchi gani itasimamia inflation? Na ikumbukwe kwamba BOT haiwezi kusimamia mfumuko wa bei kwa kuangalia Benki Kuu za Uganda na Kenya.

Kuna sabau zingine ambazo wengine mnaweza kuongezea.

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Suala la usimamizi wa uchumi EA ni wa nchi zote. Ulaya wao wanabank kwa ajili hiyo. Ipo Brussels km sijakosea. Kwahiyo watacentralise hizo shughuli ingawa si kwamba nchi zitanyang'anywa majukum yao, hapana kila nchi itabaki na automony. Na hii ni sequntial process not overnight process ndio maana unasikia bado kuna Dutch Gilder, Deutch Mark etc. Ni taratibu wataset rate ambayo tutaconvert kwenye hiyo pesa taratibu in the end system nzima ya local currency ya kila Taifa itamezwa.
Definetly currency moja inafaida kubwa zaidi kuliko ilivyo sasa. Tena wakiondoa restrictions na kwenye financial markets tutapaa zaidi. Hebu angalia DSE, linganisha na NSE, ni aibu tupu. Tafuta inf za DSE kwenye international database, utakimbia. Labda tutaamka maana mh???

remember money is only a medium of exchange, hivyo it does not dictate much on the economy au sivyo japan washingekua ni moja ya nchi zenye uchumi mkubwa duniani.

to summarize kwa hivyo the value of money rises due to scarcity of it. printing too much money and the value goes down with it, there are other economics mambo jambos also contribute but the central government plays a huge role, especially when it falls short of cash it needs. they normally rely on selling their bonds but lenders look at the interest rate if its best to invest else where than buying those bonds. the government resolts to printing money this is when the value declines in exchange market if it was high because of its scarcity it dont make sense anymore because much as been printed so the rates of exchange rises in simple tone. this is why you saw at the height of UK economic crisis the pound was so law as the government resolted to printing money to bail out those banks.

to the business side of the EAC tanzania has to look on how it is going to benefit in the long run. under the current circumstances Kenya has lots of industries that produces high quality goods than us. so not much for us to offer them in terms of industrial goods apart from them asking for raw produce and bringing the final goods to our shores. the benefit of this is that it might help lower prices of the goods in already, but it would kill our own industries.

what we can really offer these nations at the moment tanzania are our natural assets. but to be honest we are not going to get the best value out of them from these poor nations. it will only help a few rich kenyans, ugandans, rwandasand burundis obtain these assets easily and out of government hassle as they are our trading patners and free to trade in tz as tanzanians.

what we need to look at is who has what in their hands and measure the pros and cons and what benefit they offer in each society or else kenya will end a total winner due to its industrial advantages. that is not to say we can not trade but we have to think hard and draw a line of what we need the most out of each others, lets leave that to our ministries they have all the data of outsputs or else tutajilopkea tu.

Juma Contena said:

remember money is only a medium of exchange, hivyo it does not dictate much on the economy au sivyo japan washingekua ni moja ya nchi zenye uchumi mkubwa duniani.

to summarize kwa hivyo the value of money rises due to scarcity of it. printing too much money and the value goes down with it, there are other economics mambo jambos also contribute but the central government plays a huge role, especially when it falls short of cash it needs. they normally rely on selling their bonds but lenders look at the interest rate if its best to invest else where than buying those bonds. the government resolts to printing money this is when the value declines in exchange market if it was high because of its scarcity it dont make sense anymore because much as been printed so the rates of exchange rises in simple tone. this is why you saw at the height of UK economic crisis the pound was so law as the government resolted to printing money to bail out those banks.

to the business side of the EAC tanzania has to look on how it is going to benefit in the long run. under the current circumstances Kenya has lots of industries that produces high quality goods than us. so not much for us to offer them in terms of industrial goods apart from them asking for raw produce and bringing the final goods to our shores. the benefit of this is that it might help lower prices of the goods in already, but it would kill our own industries.

what we can really offer these nations at the moment tanzania are our natural assets. but to be honest we are not going to get the best value out of them from these poor nations. it will only help a few rich kenyans, ugandans, rwandasand burundis obtain these assets easily and out of government hassle as they are our trading patners and free to trade in tz as tanzanians.

what we need to look at is who has what in their hands and measure the pros and cons and what benefit they offer in each society or else kenya will end a total winner due to its industrial advantages. that is not to say we can not trade but we have to think hard and draw a line of what we need the most out of each others, lets leave that to our ministries they have all the data of outsputs or else tutajilopkea tu.

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Kama tutajiropokea then hakuna linalojadilika hapa JF. Nenda kwenye web ya serikali ya takwim na world bank, nadhani utagundua tunaweza kujadili kama huna access kwenye database.

Measures should be taken to address the huge economic differences between the member states as well as equal distribution of natural resources.Its a big step towards the formation of one huge supra national entity but all draw backs should be addressed before we come to this otherwiise what happened to the former EAC Community will happen again.

Marais wa afrika mashariki wanakutana arusha kesho.
Suala la sarafu moja afrika mashariki litazungumziwa?

Mimi nafikiri hakuna shida yeyote kuwa na sarafu moja east africa, na vile vile kuwa na matumizi ya pamoja other economic resources in this case land..wakenya hawatishi kama ambavyo wanasiasa wanataka tuamini iwe kibiashara na hata ki elimu...we are just in the more less in the same boat...
Nchi za cameroun, congo, gabon na central africa wanatumia sarafu moja...na pesa zao zinatengenezwa kutoka republic of central africa..nafikiri hayo mambo mengine ni very operational (experts wanaweza kujua vipi wagawane tender za kufanya kazi hiyo kwa nchi za east africa).
wakati in short run kenya wanaweza kutuzidi (pengine) lakini in long run tunaweza kuwashika na hata kuwapita..

Tumain said:

Mimi nafikiri hakuna shida yeyote kuwa na sarafu moja east africa, na vile vile kuwa na matumizi ya pamoja other economic resources in this case land..wakenya hawatishi kama ambavyo wanasiasa wanataka tuamini iwe kibiashara na hata ki elimu...we are just in the more less in the same boat...
Nchi za cameroun, congo, gabon na central africa wanatumia sarafu moja...na pesa zao zinatengenezwa kutoka republic of central africa..nafikiri hayo mambo mengine ni very operational (experts wanaweza kujua vipi wagawane tender za kufanya kazi hiyo kwa nchi za east africa).
wakati in short run kenya wanaweza kutuzidi (pengine) lakini in long run tunaweza kuwashika na hata kuwapita..

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Inshallah ndugu yangu,

Tumain said:

Mimi nafikiri hakuna shida yeyote kuwa na sarafu moja east africa,........wakenya hawatishi kama ambavyo wanasiasa wanataka tuamini iwe kibiashara na hata ki elimu...we are just in the more less in the same boat...
..

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Tumaini, Smatta na wengine.
Angalia viwango vya kubadilisha fedha kati ya Shilingi ya kenya na zile za TZ na Uganda.
As per Central Bank of Kenya.on 20.11.09

UGANDA SH. VS Ksh exchange rate 25.2275




TZ SH. Vs Ksh exchange rate 17.7954


Tusijidanganye.
Je bado tuko kwenye more less in the same boat?
Kazi kwenu wana JF.

Enjoy Ya

Tumain said:

Mimi nafikiri hakuna shida yeyote kuwa na sarafu moja east africa,........wakenya hawatishi kama ambavyo wanasiasa wanataka tuamini iwe kibiashara na hata ki elimu...we are just in the more less in the same boat...
..

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Tumaini, Smatta na wengine.
Angalia viwango vya kubadilisha fedha kati ya Shilingi ya kenya na zile za TZ na Uganda.
As per Central Bank of Kenya.on 20.11.09

UGANDA SH. VS Ksh exchange rate 25.2275




TZ SH. Vs Ksh exchange rate 17.7954


Tusijidanganye.
Je bado tuko kwenye more less in the same boat?
Kazi kwenu wana JF.

sihafiki suala la kuwa na 'sarafu moja' EAC

Journal Pape said:

sihafiki suala la kuwa na 'sarafu moja' EAC

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Kiswahili dada, wengine wetu ukitumia lugha ngumu hivyo hatuelewi. fafanua jamani.

Smatta

Re: Sarafu Moja Afrika Mashariki?
Kiswahili dada, wengine wetu ukitumia lugha ngumu hivyo hatuelewi. fafanua jamani.

Smatta'
Journal anamaanisha hakubaliani na wazo la SARAFU moja kwa Afrika mashariki.