Mshindi Oktoba 25 (mathematical analysis)

mbongombishi · Oct 21, 2015

Kurunzi said:
CCM kwa takwimu walizo nazo wanachama wake ni milioni 7 hebu piga kwa hesabu hiyo.

Pia CHADEMA inakadiriwa inawanachama milion 3.7 hebu piga kwa hesabu hiyo ili ili tubalance analysis yako.

Pia tupingane kisayansi si maneno ya shobo.

Mkuu Kurunzi,takwimu halisi za wanachama halisi wa CCM (Wakereketwa) bila kuweka wale waliopewa kadi na kuhongwa wakati wa mchakato wa kura za maoni majimboni na katani ni milioni 5 tu.

THUON · Oct 21, 2015

Nono said:
i. Kwamba CDM yenyewe haina wanachama?
ii. Kwamba wanachama wote wa ccm wamejiandikisha?

1. Kama hii ingekuwa "statistical model": Y_i=a_i+b_i.X (i=1,2. ikimaanisha, say CDM=1, and CCM=2, X=rika). Kwa maana hiyo, kwenye model, wewe unamaanisha kwa CDM a_1=0 (Kura za CDM ukiondoa mgawanyo wa rika ni 0), wakati kwa a_2 (ccm) ni sawa na 22% (i.e 5M). Huu ni upungufu wa kwanza.

Model yako inaweza kuimarishwa zaidi, kwa kuongeza 'variable" nyingine, say Z (eneo/kanda) amabyo mgombea anakubalika zaidi. Inawezekana kwa mfano Magufuli akakubalika zaidi kanda ya kati kulinganisha na Lowasa, na wakati huo huo Lowasa akukubalika zaidi nyanda za juu kusini. Model mpya iliyoboreshwa inaweza kuwa
Y_i=a_i+b_i.X+c_i.Z

Hii inaweza kutupa uhalisia zaidi wa nani atakuwa mshindi.

Ahsante,
Naomba nikujibu hv;

1. Hii ya idadi ya wanachama huwa ina contradiction ccm wamekuwa wakidai wana wanachama mil 8 na CDM wanadai wana wanachama zaidi ya mil 3,hii ina maana kwamba, maximum interval ya wanachama wao ni 5mil hvyo basi kutokana na madai yao ya idadi ya wanachama ukisema ccm wana 5mil nadhani ni sahihi kusema Chadema wana zero,am I right? ??hpa nimeamua ku-neglect wanachama washirika wa ukawa.

2.Nimeamua ku-base kwenye age categories generally bila ku-consider hizo regions,kwa sababu data za tume zime categorise watu kwa ages generally bila kuonesha idadi kwa age kwenye hizo regions.

m4cjb · Oct 21, 2015

Panzi Mchanga said:
Kwa wale wanaofanya analysis huwa wanakuwa na data either kwa kufanya research au kwa kutumia takwimu zilizopo. Muulizeni huyo BASIS (MSINGI) WA ASILIMIA ZAKE ALIZOTUMIA ZIMETOKA WAPI.

WATU WANAKAA BAA NA VILOBA NA KUTUPA TAKWIMU ZA MATAPTAPU (POMBE)

Hebu tuwekee zako zisizo za mataputapu! huna jipya akili yako ndogo kuliko hata piliton

Kwelitupu · Oct 21, 2015

Mkuu THUON,
Analysis yako ni nzuri na ya kisayansi, big up. Ni wazi kuwa kura za vijana 18-35 yrs ndizo critical katika kuamua nani atakuwa rais wetu ajaye. Ningependa uboreshe zaidi analysis yako kwa kundi hili by breaking it down further kwa kuangalia yafuatayo:
- mchanganuo wa wanaume vs wanawake katika kundi hili; naamini wanawake (ambao ni wengi zaidi wanamsapoti JPM)
- Geographical distribution: kuna tofauti kubwa katika kundi hili nani wanamsapoti ukiangalia kikanda au kimkoa; vijijini katika mikoa mingi (ukitoa Arusha, kilimanjaro, mbeya, Dar) vijana wengi zaidi wanamsapoti JPM, - inaweza kuwa 60% versus 40% kwa Lowasa.
Kwa hiyo hiyo jumla yako ya vijana kumsapoti Lowasa by 80% inabidi iwe revised na ndio inapelekea kuamua mshindi.
NINGEKUOMBA KWA UMAHIRI HUOHUO ULIOONYESHA KATIKA ANALYSIS YAKO, JARIBU KUDADAVUA ZAIDI HILI KUNDI TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HIZO FACTORS ZA SEX NA GEOGRAPHY.

kula kwa tindo · Oct 21, 2015

Gabriel Bisekwa said:
Haya majamaa ni machizi sana apo akionyeshwa Magufuli kashinda yatatoa matusi ya marofa subirieni oct28 Magufuli akiapishwa ndo mtajua wapumbavu wote Mnao shabikia Lowasa mumesha pimwa akili...

Lete takwimu yako

deo kyaruzi · Oct 21, 2015

Safi sana kama ni hivyo ni nzuri

Ntemi Kazwile · Oct 21, 2015

Ya kwangu ni hii hapa, ichukuliwe kama most pessimistic (yaani kama mambo yameharibika kabisa) hivi ndivyo kura zitapigwa.



Geita
Shinyanga
Mwanza
Simiyu
Mara
Tabora




Rukwa
Mbeya
Njombe
Iringa


Manyara
Kilimanjaro


Pwani

[TD="width: 92"]Region[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 93"] Voters[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Lowasa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Magufuli[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Others[/TD]
[TD="width: 95"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 81"] Lowasa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 81"] Magufuli[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 81"] Others[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Lake Zone[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Kagera[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 1,051,681[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]60%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 315,504[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 631,009[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 105,168[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 887,982[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]60%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 266,395[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 532,789[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 88,798[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 773,273[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 193,318[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 541,291[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 38,664[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 1,448,884[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 362,221[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 1,014,219[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 72,444[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 718,777[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 179,694[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 503,144[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 35,939[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 892,741[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 446,371[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 357,096[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 89,274[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 1,097,760[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 274,440[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 768,432[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 54,888[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Kigoma[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 792,551[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 317,020[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 317,020[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 158,511[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Central[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Singida[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 648,897[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 162,224[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 454,228[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 32,445[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Dodoma[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 1,071,383[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 267,846[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 749,968[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 53,569[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Southern Highlands[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Katavi[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 322,127[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 80,532[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 225,489[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 16,106[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 459,573[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 114,893[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 321,701[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 22,979[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 1,397,653[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 698,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 559,061[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 139,765[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 383,256[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 191,628[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 153,302[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 38,326[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 529,887[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 264,944[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 211,955[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 52,988[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Ruvuma[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 739,774[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 184,944[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 517,842[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 36,988[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Northern Zone[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Arusha[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 1,009,292[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 706,504[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 252,323[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 50,465[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 678,586[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 475,010[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 169,647[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 33,929[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 800,349[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 560,244[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 200,087[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 40,018[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Tanga[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 1,009,753[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 252,438[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 706,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 50,488[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Coast[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Morogoro[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 1,271,951[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 317,988[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 890,366[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 63,597[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 697,533[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 174,383[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 488,273[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 34,877[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Dar Es Salaam[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 2,775,295[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]65%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 1,803,942[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 693,824[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 277,529[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]South Zone[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Lindi[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 514,558[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 128,640[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 360,191[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 25,727[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Mtwara[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 728,981[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 182,245[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 510,287[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 36,449[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]Mgombea[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Lowasa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Magufuli[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Others[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Totals[/TD]

[TD="class: xl85"]Jumla[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] 22,702,497[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]Kura alizopata[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] 8,922,195[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] 12,130,371[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] 1,649,931[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"] 22,702,497[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]Asilimia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]40%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]53%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]100%[/TD]

Ntemi Kazwile · Oct 21, 2015

Kwelitupu said:
Mkuu THUON,
Analysis yako ni nzuri na ya kisayansi, big up. Ni wazi kuwa kura za vijana 18-35 yrs ndizo critical katika kuamua nani atakuwa rais wetu ajaye. Ningependa uboreshe zaidi analysis yako kwa kundi hili by breaking it down further kwa kuangalia yafuatayo:
- mchanganuo wa wanaume vs wanawake katika kundi hili; naamini wanawake (ambao ni wengi zaidi wanamsapoti JPM)
- Geographical distribution: kuna tofauti kubwa katika kundi hili nani wanamsapoti ukiangalia kikanda au kimkoa; vijijini katika mikoa mingi (ukitoa Arusha, kilimanjaro, mbeya, Dar) vijana wengi zaidi wanamsapoti JPM, - inaweza kuwa 60% versus 40% kwa Lowasa.
Kwa hiyo hiyo jumla yako ya vijana kumsapoti Lowasa by 80% inabidi iwe revised na ndio inapelekea kuamua mshindi.
NINGEKUOMBA KWA UMAHIRI HUOHUO ULIOONYESHA KATIKA ANALYSIS YAKO, JARIBU KUDADAVUA ZAIDI HILI KUNDI TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HIZO FACTORS ZA SEX NA GEOGRAPHY.

Hilo ni kweli kabisa, CCM walimaliza uchaguzi baada ya kumpendekeza Magufuli. Kanda ya ziwa ndiyo kanda yenye wapiga kura wengi kuliko eneo lolote na Magufuli ni miongoni mwa wanaCCM wachache walikuwa na uwezo wa kuchagua jimbo lolote wakagombea ubunge na wakashinda, na kwa yeyote anayedhani Lowasa atapata zaidi ya 35% kanda ya ziwa inabidi afikilie upya, kuna watu vijijini usukumani ambao wanaamini kuwa kumchagua Lowasa ni kuchagua kuiingiza nchi kwenye migogoro.... wamekuwa wakiambiwa hili tangu siasa za vyama vingi zianze na sasa mtu anayelisema hili ni miongoni mwa watu wanaowaamini sana, Magufuli.
Siyo hilo tu bali Magufuli na timu yake ya kampeni wamefanikiwa kutumia kete ya kabila lake kupenyeza dhana ya kuwa hii ni zamu yetu, asilimia kubwa ya wapiga kura wasukuma (zaidi ya 80%) watampigia kura Magufuli kwa sababu ya Usukuma wake, hili tukubali tusikuli huu ndio ukweli.

jamiif · Oct 21, 2015

In Shaa Allah itakuwa hivyo...!

THUON · Oct 21, 2015

Kwelitupu said:
Mkuu THUON,
Analysis yako ni nzuri na ya kisayansi, big up. Ni wazi kuwa kura za vijana 18-35 yrs ndizo critical katika kuamua nani atakuwa rais wetu ajaye. Ningependa uboreshe zaidi analysis yako kwa kundi hili by breaking it down further kwa kuangalia yafuatayo:
- mchanganuo wa wanaume vs wanawake katika kundi hili; naamini wanawake (ambao ni wengi zaidi wanamsapoti JPM)
- Geographical distribution: kuna tofauti kubwa katika kundi hili nani wanamsapoti ukiangalia kikanda au kimkoa; vijijini katika mikoa mingi (ukitoa Arusha, kilimanjaro, mbeya, Dar) vijana wengi zaidi wanamsapoti JPM, - inaweza kuwa 60% versus 40% kwa Lowasa.
Kwa hiyo hiyo jumla yako ya vijana kumsapoti Lowasa by 80% inabidi iwe revised na ndio inapelekea kuamua mshindi.
NINGEKUOMBA KWA UMAHIRI HUOHUO ULIOONYESHA KATIKA ANALYSIS YAKO, JARIBU KUDADAVUA ZAIDI HILI KUNDI TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HIZO FACTORS ZA SEX NA GEOGRAPHY.

Mkuu naweza kufanya hivyo endapo nitapata data(percentage) za wagombea wanavyokubalika kwa wapiga kura basing on their Gender and Geographical positions.kama utafanya research na kunipatia data sahihi niko tayari kufanya hivyo.

THUON · Oct 21, 2015

pembe said:
Ni kazi nyepesi assum hata kma itauwa 80% hiyo ifanye 100%

You are right.

Mringi.. · Oct 21, 2015

Gud analysis but try to characterize it against gender. I have noticed that the assumption u have taken on the age of voters reflects only the male population.
For all things women enjoy greater numbers than men as demostrated in the recent NEC statistics.
I also see the turnout of women voting is also must better than their male counter parts, because the nature of demographics men tend to travel alot and are easily short of patience when it comes to long ques in the voting stations.
And Am very positive most women are going to vote for Magufuli than Lowassa especially those aged 18-50 and they are already mothers as they are more afraid of chaos and tranquility. In circumstances like these I dont see Lowassa winning with all those larger numbers of sure ccm voter casting their votes in the ballot boxes that day.

Clkey · Oct 21, 2015

Nenda kwa mangi akupe soda baridiiiiiiiiiiiii,ntaja mpa mbesa mbesa safi sana mkuu nmeipenda tunaomba iwe hvyo

THUON · Oct 21, 2015

Mringi.. said:
Gud analysis but try to characterize it against gender. I have noticed that the assumption u have taken on the age of voters reflects only the male population.
For all things women enjoy greater numbers than men as demostrated in the recent NEC statistics.
I also see the turnout of women voting is also must better than their male counter parts, because the nature of demographics men tend to travel alot and are easily short of patience when it comes to long ques in the voting stations.
And Am very positive most women are going to vote for Magufuli than Lowassa especially those aged 18-50 and they are already mothers as they are more afraid of chaos and tranquility. In circumstances like these I dont see Lowassa winning with all those larger numbers of sure ccm voter casting their votes in the ballot boxes that day.

This election will be decided by the group aged 18-36,any candidate having high influence in this group can win the election.

The assumption I made reflects both sex,not only male as you said.

jiwe jeusi · Oct 21, 2015

na iwe hivyo mkuu..

IPILIMO · Oct 21, 2015

hakika Numbers don't lie!!

THUON · Oct 21, 2015

Clkey said:
Nenda kwa mangi akupe soda baridiiiiiiiiiiiii,ntaja mpa mbesa mbesa safi sana mkuu nmeipenda tunaomba iwe hvyo

Nashukuru

Shark · Oct 21, 2015

Nimependa analysis yako. Hii inaitwa "Kama Huelewi njia basi kariri jibu

kibogo · Oct 21, 2015

Ntemi Kazwile said:
Ya kwangu ni hii hapa, ichukuliwe kama most pessimistic (yaani kama mambo yameharibika kabisa) hivi ndivyo kura zitapigwa.

Region
Geita
Shinyanga
Mwanza
Simiyu
Mara
Tabora
Rukwa
Mbeya
Njombe
Iringa
Manyara
Kilimanjaro
Pwani

[TD="class: xl66"] Voters[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Lowasa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Magufuli[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"] Others[/TD]
[TD="width: 95"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 81"] Lowasa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 81"] Magufuli[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 81"] Others[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Lake Zone[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Kagera[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 1,051,681[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]60%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 315,504[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 631,009[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 105,168[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 887,982[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]60%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 266,395[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 532,789[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 88,798[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 773,273[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 193,318[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 541,291[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 38,664[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 1,448,884[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 362,221[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 1,014,219[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 72,444[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 718,777[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 179,694[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 503,144[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 35,939[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 892,741[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 446,371[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 357,096[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 89,274[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 1,097,760[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 274,440[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 768,432[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 54,888[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Kigoma[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 792,551[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 317,020[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 317,020[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 158,511[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Central[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Singida[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 648,897[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 162,224[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 454,228[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 32,445[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Dodoma[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 1,071,383[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 267,846[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 749,968[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 53,569[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Southern Highlands[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Katavi[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 322,127[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 80,532[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 225,489[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 16,106[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 459,573[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 114,893[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 321,701[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 22,979[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 1,397,653[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 698,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 559,061[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 139,765[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 383,256[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 191,628[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 153,302[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 38,326[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 529,887[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]10%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 264,944[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 211,955[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 52,988[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Ruvuma[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 739,774[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 184,944[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 517,842[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 36,988[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Northern Zone[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Arusha[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 1,009,292[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 706,504[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 252,323[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 50,465[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 678,586[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 475,010[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 169,647[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 33,929[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 800,349[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 560,244[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 200,087[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 40,018[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Tanga[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 1,009,753[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 252,438[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 706,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 50,488[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]Coast[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Morogoro[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 1,271,951[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 317,988[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 890,366[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 63,597[/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 697,533[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, align: right"]5%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] 174,383[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] 488,273[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] 34,877[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Dar Es Salaam[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 2,775,295[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]65%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 1,803,942[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 693,824[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 277,529[/TD]

[TD="class: xl72"]South Zone[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]Lindi[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 514,558[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 128,640[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] 360,191[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"] 25,727[/TD]

[TD="class: xl80"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"]Mtwara[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 728,981[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83, align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl81"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 182,245[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82"] 510,287[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"] 36,449[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]Mgombea[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Lowasa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Magufuli[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Others[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] Totals[/TD]

[TD="class: xl85"]Jumla[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] 22,702,497[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]Kura alizopata[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] 8,922,195[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] 12,130,371[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] 1,649,931[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"] 22,702,497[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]Asilimia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]53%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"]100%[/TD]

Yaani umekaa kwenye ka excel kako na kuingiza viasilimia vyako na kujifanya eti na wewe ni mchambuzi kumbe ni mchambuzi MBUZI.

THUON · Oct 21, 2015

Shark said:
Nimependa analysis yako. Hii inaitwa "Kama Huelewi njia basi kariri jibu

Ahsante

Mshindi Oktoba 25 (mathematical analysis)

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