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Mkulo for crisis meeting as inflation nears 17pc |
Monday, 17 October 2011 22:57 |
digg By Alawi Masare The Citizen Reporter Dar es Salaam. Finance and Economic Affairs minister Mustafa Mkulo has called a crisis meeting to find ways of taming the high cost of living indicated by rising inflation rate that has reached 16.8 per cent, the highest in a decade.With the freefalling shilling, unreliable electricity supply and food shortages, the rising commodity prices have eroded the purchasing power of Tanzanias low income earners, pushing inflation levels to double digit since June. Mr Mkulo said a meeting scheduled for this week will bring together experts from the Treasury, central bank and other key government departments to plan on how to bring relief to the citizenry in the face of spiralling prices. The matter is serious. The central bank governor (Benno Ndulu) and I will both attend the meeting to see what we can do to address the situation, he told The Citizen yesterday in a telephone interview. The annual headline inflation rate for the year ended September increased from 14.1 per cent in August and economists worry that the rate would reach 20 per cent by the end of the year unless appropriate steps, including stabilising the shilling and putting an end to the power crisis, are not taken. The highest inflation rate in the last ten years was in March 2009 when it reached 13 per cent. Things started going awry in June at the height of the power crisis and food shortages when inflation reached a double digit of 10.9 per cent after a 15-month reign of a single digit inflation rate. Food and energy prices exerted the most pressure on the inflation with food inflation rising to 21.3 per cent from the 17.4 per cent in August. Food items that contributed to the increase in prices include sugar, maize, meat, bread, pastry, fish, milk, cooking fat, cassava flour and fruit juices. The rate of price increase of sugar was the highest at 16.4 per cent followed by fish at 6.0 per cent, maize and meat at 5.0 per cent. For non-food items namely gas and charcoal had a higher rate of price increase than the rest at 11 and 8.3 per cent respectively. Prof Marjorie Mbilinyi, an economist, blamed the rising prices on the weakening shilling, which has been left free falling to protect the interests of few exporters. The central bank governor said recently the depreciation of the shilling is good for exporters, even if it is contributing to the rising cost of living, and a fall in peoples standard of living and rising food insecurity. But what if the rising cost of living results into riots in the streets? she noted. She said food is a substantial part of the measure of the cost of living because the poor spend proportionately more on food than the rich. To get a single US dollar, you now require Sh1,765, which is a drop in the shillings value by a whopping 14 per cent since the start of the year. Experts predict the exchange rate reaching Sh2,000 by the end of the year. Dr Honest Ngowi, a Mzumbe University economics lecturer, projects that the situation could worsen as the shilling remains weak against the dollar while food and oil prices are high. According to Prof Mbilinyi, export dependence of Tanzanias economy has meant that our financial system is also locked into the global fiscal system. Right now there is a major crisis looming in the global economy, which is expected to be far worse than that of 2008. Examples include the crisis in EU; the failure of the American economy to increase employment thus shrinking the market for goods produced both in USA and elsewhere. She adds that the failure of the government and the private sector to create more jobs and strengthen small-scale agriculture, livestock keeping included, is another major cause of inflation. Without it, it is impossible to expand the domestic market and trade because of low purchasing power. The small elite class that depends on shopping malls has a preference for imported goods and services and that contributes to inflation, said the Prof. What is needed is the expansion of local production for local consumption, which depends on having masses of people who are employed and have dispensable incomes to purchase not only food but other necessities, argues Prof Mbilinyi. The Uganda annual headline inflation rate for the year-ending September 2011 increased to 28.3 per cent from 21.4 per cent at the end of August 2011. Kenyas overall inflation rate increased to 17.32 per cent in September 2011 from 16.67 per cent recorded in August 2011. The increase is attributed to higher food inflation rate (24.37 per cent) registered in year ending in September 2011. |