For Investors: Analysis for CRDB stock at DSE (May)

[Davion Delmonte Jr.]

I. Price Chart

II. Average Price Watch

The Average Price Watch is solely to determine how price deviate from the closing price. If the closing price is higher than the average, it implies the market is bullish because investors value the stock far than the previous last period prices shown by the average SMA5 and SMA10.

Vice versa is true, whenever the closing price is lower than the average it implies investors are bearish on the stock and they value it less than they did in previous time period.

As it stands the market yesterday closes at a price of Tzs. 370 which is the lowest for the month and with all SMA5 and SMA10 to their monthly lowest.


- 5 and 10 Days Simple Moving Average (SMA)

- 5 Days SMA presented by the Red Line (SMA5)

- 10 Days SMA presented by the Green Line (SMA10)

- Closing price presented by the Blue Line

III. Technical Analysis

Combining the three
- Demand and Supply zones on a price chart

- Price cycles/Ideal waves

- Average price watch

- T.A Verdict

a) Demand and Supply zones on a price chart.

The price chart has produced some strong zones of demand and supply which were potential for price reversals during the whole month of May.

The price of Tzs. 400 was the highest high for the month and was the strongest supply zone in which when tested the price reversed as there were many sellers’ offers that pull the price down. This price marks the critical zone though there was other local supply zone at price Tzs. 390 observed during week one and the last week that ended yesterday.

The chart has also produced strong demand zone at price Tzs. 375 during first 3 weeks of the month in which price reversed after test the zone implying there were increasing bid competition among buyers that pushed price up. But in the week ended yesterday there produced another demand zone at a price Tzs. 370 which was the lowest low for the month and implied that the bears are still growling loud. This is the very critical price to watch as the pullback could imply bullish rally that could test the supply zones at price 390 and eventually price 400, whereas the breakout of this price further down could see decline in price to the region around 350 in next two weeks.

a) Price cycles/ ideal waves

This wave approach states that, price always moves in waves and in repetition. Its implication is that the peak price in a series will be followed by recession and then bottomed which we find lowest price. In the bottom where there is a lowest price the process will recycle and project back to the peak.

The price action of the CRDB stock has produced series of those repetitive cycles. In wave analysis the complete structure has 5 waves which is wave 1 to 5. The first series of wave completes wave 5 at the highest price of 400 before correction waves series occur. In correction wave series the price is seen cycled until completes the wave 5 at the monthly lowest price of 370 which close the market on Friday.

From just that piece of information above, if we assume the assumption of waves to hold. If the price will tend to recycle from highest to lowest over the trading period, it implies that from the lowest price of 370 that closed the week session, the probability is high that the repetition is about to begin that could see price project towards the peak at prices 385, 390 and 400.

But the overall verdict of this stock based on waves is much centered on bullish that could see price project produce another upward wave, given no breakout will happen that can see the price continue to drop further down.

c) Average Price Watch

Analysis based on average price as was discussed early weighed the deviation of real price from the average. From the above chart of average prices, the stock price closed the day below average prices and from 16th May it was trading below its 10 Days moving average.

All these circumstances implies that the stock is now undervalued as its trading below average price and its now sold at discount as compared to the 2 weeks in the beginning of May where its price was high and was trading above its 5 and 10 days moving average.

In this perspective it is worth buying because the stock is sold cheap and at a discount and any price dip below 370 will widen buying opportunity as stock will be sold at a cheap price.

Therefore on technical ground the verdict can be summarized simply on this chart.

IV. Fundamental Analysis

This one am still researching as it needs description of some news and events plus investigating what is there in CRDB balance sheet. Very soon i will come up with that. I will also appreciate if other members will contribute with any info which can be ideal for what am doing, that can help fostering financial markets in Tanzania. Thanks


Cc. Bavaria

 

[njiwa]

Analysis nzuri

 

[Jane Lowassa]

Too technical to be understood by an average person

 

[Bavaria]

You are good dog.

Sell and buy, hukosi hela ya kula.

Then, Fanya utafiti wa Swissport uone maajabu yake.

 

[Tabutupu]

good

 

[Helios]

shukran for analysis ila its too technical. hivi bei inaweza fika 1000? kwa nini bei ya hiza za CRDB zinapanda taratibu and stuck at 500 or less sio kama NMB. tupe shule mkuu

 

[Larkin]

Good analysis. I am of the view that you also need to analyze type of investors in CRDB stock. Probably some of investors hold few shares who at a time would wish to dispose them at whatever price available. Such few stocks will obvious not attract institutional investors and will tend to put unnecessary pressure on the price. You can also consider the impact of recent right issue as the investors may now be off loading shares acquired in the issue.

In terms of performance, especially profitability, CRDB seems to be doing fine that may have attracted big investors such as IFC to come in, but how about it's balance sheet especially loan portfolio that takes more that 70% of the bank's assets? We may need further analysis to determine corroletion between the bank's share price and quality of the assets taking into account level of non performing loans. Sectoral analysis of loans and other assets vs level of non perfoming assets in each sector may put more light on the quality of bank assets. Also test the ability of the bank's assets to generate income by computing ratios such as ROA and ROE and compare with other big banks such as NMB, Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank.

All the best in your research. Please share your final findings

 

[Naanto Mushi]

Good analysis. I am of the view that you also need to analyze type of investors in CRDB stock. Probably some of investors hold few shares who at a time would wish to dispose them at whatever price available. Such few stocks will obvious not attract institutional investors and will tend to put unnecessary pressure on the price. You can also consider the impact of recent right issue as the investors may now be off loading shares acquired in the issue.

In terms of performance, especially profitability, CRDB seems to be doing fine that may have attracted big investors such as IFC to come in, but how about it's balance sheet especially loan portfolio that takes more that 70% of the bank's assets? We may need further analysis to determine corroletion between the bank's share price and quality of the assets taking into account level of non performing loans. Sectoral analysis of loans and other assets vs level of non perfoming assets in each sector may put more light on the quality of bank assets. Also test the ability of the bank's assets to generate income by computing ratios such as ROA and ROE and compare with other big banks such as NMB, Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank.

All the best in your research. Please share your final findings

Upo vizur mkuu. kudos. Haya mambo mnajulia wapi

 

[Larkin]

Upo vizur mkuu. kudos. Haya mambo mnajulia wapi

Ekambe Mushi hahah

 

[The Invincible]

Good analysis. I am of the view that you also need to analyze type of investors in CRDB stock. Probably some of investors hold few shares who at a time would wish to dispose them at whatever price available. Such few stocks will obvious not attract institutional investors and will tend to put unnecessary pressure on the price. You can also consider the impact of recent right issue as the investors may now be off loading shares acquired in the issue.

In terms of performance, especially profitability, CRDB seems to be doing fine that may have attracted big investors such as IFC to come in, but how about it's balance sheet especially loan portfolio that takes more that 70% of the bank's assets? We may need further analysis to determine corroletion between the bank's share price and quality of the assets taking into account level of non performing loans. Sectoral analysis of loans and other assets vs level of non perfoming assets in each sector may put more light on the quality of bank assets. Also test the ability of the bank's assets to generate income by computing ratios such as ROA and ROE and compare with other big banks such as NMB, Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank.

All the best in your research. Please share your final findings

Highlighted...Mhhh! Mambo yanaweza kuwa si mazuri kihivyo huko CRDB?
Just thinking aloud.

 

[NANDERA]

Nimejaribu kutoa macho lakini mmh.... Nitarudi tena nikitulia. Tatizo nimezoea kuchambua kiima na kiarifu.

 

[qurious]

Vipi hisa za Swissport wakuu

 

[Ngwananzengo]

"Think globally act locally"

Ni jambo lililo wazi na bayana kuwa watu wengi wenye fedha (matajiri) ima wameunga Unga shule au hawakuweza kufika mbali kielimu. Unapoamua kutoa maarifa ni vizuri ukatoa maarifa huku ukiepuka "barrier of communication". Vingenevyo tutakuchukulia kama umekariri.

 

[aminiusiamini]

Good analysis. I am of the view that you also need to analyze type of investors in CRDB stock. Probably some of investors hold few shares who at a time would wish to dispose them at whatever price available. Such few stocks will obvious not attract institutional investors and will tend to put unnecessary pressure on the price. You can also consider the impact of recent right issue as the investors may now be off loading shares acquired in the issue.

In terms of performance, especially profitability, CRDB seems to be doing fine that may have attracted big investors such as IFC to come in, but how about it's balance sheet especially loan portfolio that takes more that 70% of the bank's assets? We may need further analysis to determine corroletion between the bank's share price and quality of the assets taking into account level of non performing loans. Sectoral analysis of loans and other assets vs level of non perfoming assets in each sector may put more light on the quality of bank assets. Also test the ability of the bank's assets to generate income by computing ratios such as ROA and ROE and compare with other big banks such as NMB, Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank.

All the best in your research. Please share your final findings

Kama hujatoka nje kusoma haya mambo huwezi kujua.

 

[Davion Delmonte Jr.]

"Think globally act locally"

Ni jambo lililo wazi na bayana kuwa watu wengi wenye fedha (matajiri) ima wameunga Unga shule au hawakuweza kufika mbali kielimu. Unapoamua kutoa maarifa ni vizuri ukatoa maarifa huku ukiepuka "barrier of communication". Vingenevyo tutakuchukulia kama umekariri.

Ningependa sana kuandika kwa kiswahili kwa lengo la wengi waelewe lakini kama ningeamua kuandika kwa kiswahili kuna mambo mawili yangeweza kujitokeza
1. Maudhui niliyoyakusudia kuyaandika yasingekamilika.
2. Walengwa niliowatarget wasingenielewa.

unajua kuna field na mada nyingine mkuu huwezi kukwepa kutumia English. Na mimi huwa naangalia na mada, mada kama hii ya analysis ni vigumu kutumia kiswahili. Nadhani umenipata mkuu.

 

[Davion Delmonte Jr.]

Vipi hisa za Swissport wakuu

Nita update hapa hapa maana bado nipo kwenye kukusanya data. Sema inahitaji mda kidogo lakini najitahidi ikiwa tayar ntaweka.

 

[Davion Delmonte Jr.]

Good analysis. I am of the view that you also need to analyze type of investors in CRDB stock. Probably some of investors hold few shares who at a time would wish to dispose them at whatever price available. Such few stocks will obvious not attract institutional investors and will tend to put unnecessary pressure on the price. You can also consider the impact of recent right issue as the investors may now be off loading shares acquired in the issue.

In terms of performance, especially profitability, CRDB seems to be doing fine that may have attracted big investors such as IFC to come in, but how about it's balance sheet especially loan portfolio that takes more that 70% of the bank's assets? We may need further analysis to determine corroletion between the bank's share price and quality of the assets taking into account level of non performing loans. Sectoral analysis of loans and other assets vs level of non perfoming assets in each sector may put more light on the quality of bank assets. Also test the ability of the bank's assets to generate income by computing ratios such as ROA and ROE and compare with other big banks such as NMB, Standard Chartered Bank and Citibank.

All the best in your research. Please share your final findings

Nice view bro. upo vizuri accounting? Hapo kwenye ratios ndo napahitaji ili niweze kuichambua balance sheet yao vizur

 

[Davion Delmonte Jr.]

shukran for analysis ila its too technical. hivi bei inaweza fika 1000? kwa nini bei ya hiza za CRDB zinapanda taratibu and stuck at 500 or less sio kama NMB. tupe shule mkuu

Ntakujibu hilo swali mkuu. Ila kwanza kinacho sababisha bei kushuka na kupanda ni investors wenyewe jinsi wanavoi view kampuni husika. Wakiwa bullish watakuwa wananunua kwa wingi so demand itaenda juu na bei pia itapanda and vice versa is true wakiwa bearish.

 

[Cjtranter]

Tafadhali taarifa kama hizi wekeni katika lugha rahisi hili sisi vilaza tuelewe na tuone faida ya hivi vitu, sasa hizo lugha zenu sisi vilaza tunaweza kuwekeza kweli.

 

[Helios]

Ntakujibu hilo swali mkuu. Ila kwanza kinacho sababisha bei kushuka na kupanda ni investors wenyewe jinsi wanavoi view kampuni husika. Wakiwa bullish watakuwa wananunua kwa wingi so demand itaenda juu na bei pia itapanda and vice versa is true wakiwa bearish.

ukiangalia outlook ya company je inafanya vizuri financially? kwa uwekezaji wa muda mrefu ni nzuri? maana hata NMB iliyokuwa naitegemea nayo shares zimeshuka sana. hii sababu ya kuwa foreign investors got jitters after new administrations ni kweli so they sold shares en mass?