HNIC
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 6, 2011
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Kila mwana JF na hasa kwenye hill jukwaa la siasa kufight back against TROLLS from BAVICHA na UVCCM ambao wanakuja hapa na kutuletea threads ambazo hazina tija kwa maendeleo ya hii nchi
Sasa turudi kwenye hii ya SGR na naomba tusaidiane kuchambua huu mradi in out na wengine tutaleta supporting docs from 3rd sources ku support arguments zetu.
Sisi kama members wa Jamiiforums tunawakilisha mawazo ya watanzania zaidi ya milioni 50 na hii imekuwa ikituweka kwenye nafasi ngumu mpaka makamanda wetu sasa hivi wamewekwa ndani na wana pay the price kwa kudiriki kutupatia uhuru wa kutumia hii platform
In the wake Gas projects kama ya Mtwara -Dar, upanuzi wa Bandari ya Dar, Bandari ya Bagamoyo na bila kusahau sasa hivi TANESCO wanawalipa kampuni ya Richmond (na watt wake) shilling milioni 400 per day za walalahoi so its rightly for us to be suspicious of any large infrastructure project proposed by our ruing elites. Silly because of USIRI nd bitter experience of money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephants kama ya akina Mtwara Gas n.k
In addition, kuna maswali ambayo lazima tuweke wazi na tunaweza kutumia figures za USD na TSH lakini kunaweza kukawepo mabadiiko as we go along.
Pili kuna generic info ambazo zinaweza kuwa mwongozo wetu kwenye haya mambo:
PROJECT:
Hii project ni kwa ajili ya capacity to finance, design, construct, operate and maintain the proposed 1661km kutoka Dar Es Salaam-Isaka-Kigali/Keza-Musongati (DIIKM) kwa njia ya public-private partnership (PPP).
PROJECT DIVERS
Ma Propagandists wetu (wanasiasa) wamekuwa wakisema the obvious stuff kuwa huu mradi utatufanya tutimize ile Tanzania Vision 2025 (ambayo kwa kiasi kikubwa haiendani na zama tulizo nazo), MKUKUTA etc. Kingine ni Paul Kagame Factor (huyu jamaa ametupatia challenge kubwa ili kutimiza ile ndoto ya kutumia Bandari ya Dar etc). Kingpin ni kupunguza hizo costs za transportation (hii of course inaingilia Cartel ya wanasiasa na ruling elites ambao wana biashara za malori), and the other usual stuff kama kuifanya TZ kuwa ni attractoive for DFI's na kupunguza tariffs per tone-km. Ohh how can I forget kuwa Mr Infrastructure hataki baranara zake ziharibiwe na malori na bila kusahau sera ya Viwanda itakuwa raihisi kutekelezeka....
RELI YA ZAMANI:
Hii project ni mchanganyiko : Kwanza ni kufanya upgrading to the existing 970km narrow-gauge railway from Dar es Salaam to Isaka na ya pili ni construction of a brand new 494km extension to Kigali and a 197km branch from Keza in northwest Tanzania to Musongati in Burundi.
USAGE:
The line will be built primarily for freight trains with a 32.4 tonne axle load proposed although some passenger services will be available (hivyo hapa nadhani manelewa why wanasiasa na matajiri wenye malori wanafanya kila jitihada ku sabotage hii project)
FEASIBILITY STUDY:
mwaka 2014 kampuni makubwa ya reli kama Canarail na Gibb Africa ilifanya (wali update) feasibility study iliyofanywa mwaka 2009 na kampuni ya DB International and BNSF ambazo kwa kiwango kikubwa walihimiza na kusisitiza kuwa serikali yetu inaweza optimize alignments to reduce capital expenditure (na hapa ndiko wapiti dili walikasirika kwani kuna mapesa yako at stake). Hali kadhalika FS report ya CR&GA ilisema kuwa kuna huge potential traffic for the line, kwani hii reli itabeba mizigo ya tani million 10 kwa mwaka ikifika mkwaka na itaendelea mpaka tani milioni 30 ikifika mwaka 2050
SCOPE OF THE WORK
(Nitaleta taarifa zaidi kuhusu hii baadae)
CHALLENGES
Tumeambiwa kuwa kuna challenges nyingi sana kujenga hii reli kama vile ragged terrain ambazo zitakuwa mitigated by long viaducts (hawakuwa specific on how many kilometres), passages kwa wanyama kwenye mbuga nk Pia waliangalia barabara (za zamani na mpya) na pia kuna hao watu wa OSHA nao wanasisitiza kazi ifanywe kwa kuzingatia uslama na afya za wafanyakazi hivyo kutakuwepo kwa senyenge kwenye baadhi ya maeneo kuzuia wanyama nk. Pia kwa kuwa itajengwa kwa standards za kisasa ina maana kutahitajika kuchukua ardhi kubwa zaidi baadhi ya maeneo na itabidi watu walipwe...na hii inaweza kuleta construction delays. Hali kadhalika kutahitajika stations nyingi along the way na bila kusahau mamba ya umeme, maji na vifaa kadhaa wa kadhaa. Pia tusisahau mambo ya locomotives na hizo rolling stock
OPERATIONAL STATS ( data incomplete)
Operational expectations na stats ni estimates lakini list haiku exhaustive hivyo nitajaza kadri muda unavyozidi kwenda.
Load per freight train-4,000 and
Load per passenger train-2,000 passengers
Number of passenger trains-/6 day initially
Average speed freight trains-80 km/hour (?)
Average speed passenger trains-120 km/h (?)
Line capacity-10 million tones/annum
Infrastructure cost (?? )-USD (?)million/km of track (utata mkubwa uko hapa)
Total cost of turnkey project- $7.2 billion (including civil works, facilities, locomotives and rolling stock)
FINANCIALS:
Kifedha serikali ya awamu iliyopita na hii ziko hoi bin taaban, Ndio maana tukalipishwa pesa na TPA/TRA kwa kila bidhaa inayoingia nchini kuchangia ujenzi wa reli na bado tukakwama ndio tukaamua kupeleka kwa Multilateral agencies kama World Bank na Africa Development Bank na bila kusahau Mwakyembe aliened kuongea na Commercial Banks za nje watukopeshe pesa tujenge hii reli.
Option nyingine ilikuwa kwenda kwenye CASH POINT aka BEIJING wa wachina na huu ulikuwa ni ushauri kwa JK kuwa Wa China ni ndugu zetu hivyo tungepewa pesa via EXIM BANK under government-to-government (G2G) arrangement. Pia kipindi kile kulikuwa na mapesa mengi ya miaka 3-5 toka PRC kwa nchi za Africa kupitia mpango wa Forum on China – Africa Corporation (FOCAC) na nakumbuka mwaka jana Makamo wa Rais bibi Samia Suluhu alituwakilisha kwenye mkutano wa FOCAC uliofanyika South Africa.
Basically PRC walitenga kiasi cha USD 20 billion, ambayo ni mapesa ya FOCAC kati ya mwaka 2012 – 2015 kwa jili mikopo kwa nchi za Africa ili ku support baadhi ya miradi ambayo in principle kampuni za kichina (makampuni karibuni yote yao ni ya serikali au ya jeshi lao) kama hao akina CRJE etc wapewe contract kwa njia ya EPC huku Africa na Tanzania ilikuwa ni mmojawapo wa hizo nchi.
Nikirudi nyumba kidogo... mwaka 2014 tuliambiwa na aliyekuwa waziri wa Fedha chini ya serikali ya JK bibi SAADA MKUYA alisema kuwa huu MRADI UTAHITAJI DOLA BILLION 14.2 .
Source:
UPDATE 2-Tanzania to spend $14 bln on railways, eyes regional hub status
Serikali ika introduce import tax kwa jail ya huu mradi pasipo kuwaambia wananchi detailed info on the project na financials na hasa kiasi gani kishapatikana kwenye hiyo kodi toka ilipokuwa introduced . Baada ya hapo kama kawaida yetu yakatokea mazingaombwe ya kila namna yakiongozwa na wapiti dili wakubwa Tanzania (Mawaziri na Wabunge na vijikampuni vyao ambavyo vilikuwa vinawania vipewe subcontracts za kila namna wakati hata hizo pesa za kufanya hiyo project hazijapatikana
Alipoingia Rais Magufuli akapiga chini zile estimate za serikali ya JK za DOLA BILLION 14 na sasa the actual tag ni DOLA BILLION 7.6 sasa hatujaelezwa imewezekana vipi pesa zikapungua kiasi hiko? na zile dola billion 7 za mwanzo ilikuwa ziende kwenye mifuko ya nana?
CHINA Export Import Bank (EXIM BANK) -Kwenye hii tafuteni threads za member mwenzetu PASCO. Alianzisha several threads kadhaa zinazoelezea mikopo hii ya kachina na uhuni unaofanyika
Kumekuwepo kwa propaganda kuwa Tanzania inapt msaada/aid toka bank ya EXIM bank yaChina. Ukweli ni kuwa HATUPATI na HATUJAPATA msaada isipokuwa serikali yetu tukufu iilikuwa ina mango wa kuomba MKOPO wenye riba ya bei nafuu toka serikali ya China. There is actually no aid offered, japokuwa (based on nyaraka zilizopo ) ni kuwa serikali yetu tukufu imekuwa iki lobby tupewe preferential export credit of $ 5 billion ambayo balozi wa china hapa Dar, na every tom dick and harry aliopo sirikali amekuwa akijibu akiiulizwa kuhusu financing the SRG railway. Baada ya malalamiko ndio ikaamuliwa kuwa tutafute pesa za mkopo toka kwa mashirika ya fed ya kimataifa na baadhi ya nchi ili tuufanye huu mradi.
Taarifa ambazo wanataka kuzificha japo wenyewe wamekuwa kimbelembele kila siku ku preach ammabo ya OPEN GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP (OGP) ili kuweka wazi taarifa za matumizi ya pesa za serikali kwenye mitandao yao. Sasa kama hawataki TRANSPARENCY itabidi wajiulize inawezekana vipi sie watu wa Kimara tunazo taarifa za huu mkopo?
Anyway,
As it stands ni kuwa total cost of the project is USD 7.6 billion. Na loan iliyoombwa from EXIM Bank (80-85 %) lakini hawakufikia makubaliano ni percentage ngapi ndio maana ikaletwa hoja ya kuwatisha jmamcho kufumba kuwa hata hata watu wa UBATANI (Uturuki) na wengine wanaweza kutupatia loan kwa favourable terms.
Initially ile loan toka kwa EXIM BANK (ambayo bado hawakukubaliana) ingegawanyika into 2 parts:
1.Ingekuwa ni concessional loan na ingekuwa na 2 % interest per annum with a grace period 7-10 years. The repayment period is ni between 20-25 years.
2. Ingekuwa ni commercial loan na LIBOR + 360 base point interest per annum na grace period ingekuwa not less than 5 years with a repayment period of around 10 years.
Tusisahau kuwa kuna element ya insurance ya hiyo commercial loan ambayo ingekuwa almost 7% ya thamani ya huo mkopo na ingelipwa kwa 3 au 4 annual instalments. Ohhh kitu kingpin ni kuwa interest payment katika kipindi hicho cha grace period ingekuwa covered na Sirikali yetu Tukufu kupitia hizo budgetary allocations na yale mapesa tunayotozwa kuingiza mizigo ndani ya nchi. Katika plans zao walitaka kuwa repayments ziwe covered na mapesa yatakayopatikana kwenye operations za hii reli. Bila kusahau kuwa serikali ingesaidia kugenerate traffic na kazi kwenye hii reli (marufuku ya malori barararani na kushawishi nchi jirani watumie hii reli kusafirisha mizigo yao) ili serikali ipate revenues ku cover operations na loans/interest payments tunazodaiwa
Kuna jambo nilisahau kuwa Sovereign Guarantee ambayo ni ngumu kupata kuliko jasho la mbu ingetoka tuu (zipo threads humu JF zinazoulizia kwa nini Tanzania haya mambo ya kutoa SG hayajawekwa wazi na nani ana mamlaka ya kuongeza debt limit ya serikali)
WANACHOTAKA EXIM BANK TOKA KWETU
Wichita (EXIM BANK) wao kama kawaida ya mkopaji yoyote yule mwenye nia ya kurudishiwa pesa zake na faida juu hakuna cha bure bure, masharti yao sio siri wanataka yafuatayo toka kwetu:
1. Construction Standards ziwe za kwao China/Chinese standards
2. Operator wa hii reli lazima awe familiar na lender (in this case itakuwa hao hao Wachina)
3. Insurance lazima ifanywe na kampuni yao sinosure na habari zao zinapatikana hapa:
http://www.sinosure.com.cn/sinosure/english/English.html
4. Baada ya ujenzi serikali lazima iguarantee traffic ili mradi we na faida
5. Escrow account itafunguliwa na itakuwa operated jointly kati ya serikali na EXIM Bank na proposed scheduled charges zitakuwa kama ifuatavyo:
a) ya kwanza itakuwa ya operations
b) ya pili itakuwa ni ya payment ya mikopo na riba (interests)
b) ya tatu na final charge itakuwa kwa jaili ya capital projects.
6.Serikali inategemewa na kutarajiwa kuwa itatoa sovereign guarantee ya huo mkopo
7. Serikali pia toe uhakiki wa pesa za ununua ardhi, kulipa fidia na kuwahamisha wananchi watakao athirika
8. Serikali lazima pia itoe confirmation kuwa wanazo pesa za percentage ya contribution yake (inaweza ikawa 30%,20% au 15%)
DESIGN STANDARDS
(hizi ni estimates tuu kwa sababu kumekuwa na mabadiiko mara kwa mara toka upande wetu)
Gauge-1,435 mm
Design standard-Chinese
Class of railway-Class 1 design, maintenance and operation
Number of tracks-Single initially (civil infrastructure prepared for future doubling)
Length of crossing loops- (?)
Rail-International union of railways (UIC) 60 (60 kg/m)
Switches-Electrically operated
Minimum horizontal curve radius-1,200 meters; difficult sections 900 meters
Minimum vertical curve radius-10,000 meters
Maximum gradient-1.2% (?)
Power type-Diesel initially (kumekuwepo kwa hoja kuwa gesi ipo why tusipige umeme all the way?)
Type of locomotives-Passenger: ( ?)
Loading gauge-Double stack containers and future electrification kwa sababu ya umeme wa gas
Axel load-25 tonnes (minimum)
DR. JOHN POMBE MAGUFULI aka MR INFRASTRUCTURE:
Mheshimiwa Rais by profession ni mpenzi mkubwa sana wa infrastructure projects na sifa yake nyingine kubwa he has an eye for detail and he knows his trade, Hivyo alipopelekewa report ya huu Mradi ni kuwa hakutaka apewe briefing, alijifungia for a whole weekend akasoma detailed reports za feasibility studies, na financial proposals na bila kusahau recommendations from previous administration kuwa kampuni ya CHINA RAIL MATERIALS (CRM) wapewee tenda hiyo.
Tukumbuke kuwa Mheshimiwa anafahamu vizuri tulivyopigwa kwenye mradi wa Utanuzi wa Bandari ya Dar, Ujenzi wa bmba la gesi toka Mtwara na bila kusahau another elephant project ya Bandari ya Bagamoyo. Hivyo alipoona CRM's price for the new railway was "hugely inflated," in addition, the SGR project was hastily delivered to CRM without proper tendering, na kwenye notes zake Mr Infrastructure aliandika kwa the whole thing stinks kwasababu it there was inadequate "front end design" and/or feasibility study before the Chinese were awarded the contract on top of irregularity and side stepping 2004 PPA and its amendments....
MAJIBU YA CHINA RAILS MATERIALS kwa MR INFRASTRUCTURE:
WAPIGA DILI
ROLE YA WANASIASA
LIST YA VIONGOZI WANAOPINGA HUU MRADI
ROLE YA TREASURY NA PLANNING
BUNGE OVERSIGHTS
WHO IS WHO
BEIJING PRESSURE
TURKISH DEIGHT
THE ROTHSCHILDS QUESTION
