Yatakayojiri 2016 katika sekta ya Milki (real estate), Bei za pango kushuka

[DarProperty Tz]

Karibu 2016, mwaka huu tutarajie kushuhudia mabadiliko makubwa kwenye sekta ya milki (real estate). Baada ya kuikaribisha serikali ya awamu ya tano ya Jamuhuri ya Muungano ya Tanzania chini ya Raisi Dr John Magufuli. Raisi mpya, serikali mpya na mipango mipya.
Utabiri huu ukwa kiwango kikubwa unasukumwa na maamuzi na mipango ya serikali mpya. Ufuatao ni utabiri wa yatakayojiri mwaka 2016.
1. Kushuka kwa riba ya mikopo ya nyumba.
2. Kuongezeka kwa miradi ya nyumba za bei nafuu.
3. Kupungua kwa wapangaji wa nyumba za makazi na biashara.
4. Kushuka kwa bei ya majengo ya biashara.
5. Kushuka kwa bei ya kuuza na kupangisha nyumba za makazi.
6. Kutovumilika kwa wadanganyifu katika sekta ya milki (real estate)
7. Kushuka kwa bei ya vifaa vya ardhi

Welcome 2016, the year 2016 will largely witness many changes in the real estate industry. As we have just ushered in the fifth government of United Republic of Tanzania. New President, new government, new plans. After a mere 100 days in the office for the new government, the Tanzanians have started to witness a different feel of things around. Dr. John Magufuli the fifth President of the united republic of Tanzania has taken the region by surprise on his austerity measures. His actions have inspired the most famous hashtag in the social media, [HASHTAG]#WhatWouldMagufuliDo[/HASHTAG], not only in Tanzania but across the globe. The man declared war against the corrupted and the lazy individuals. My predictions for the trends in the 2016 will so much be influenced by the decision and plans of this new government. The Prediction will focus on seven (7) areas of the industry.

Prediction one. Low interest rates on mortgages. In year 2015 we could not witness a decline in the interest rates due to excessive government spending on things like the new constitution referendum, the general election and the speedy completion of some projects by the government to fulfill their promises to the voters before seeking for another term. In 2016, many people are pessimistic after the recently introduction of TSA (Treasury Single Account). What is TSA? Single Treasury Account (TSA) is a public accounting system under which all Government revenue, receipts and income are collected into one single account. The TSA is maintained by the Central Bank of Tanzania.
The essence of TSA is to ensure accountability of Government revenue. The maintenance of a Treasury Single Account will help to ensure proper cash management by eliminating idle funds usually left with various commercial banks.
All Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies are required to remit their revenue collections to this account through the individual commercial banks who act as collection agents. The cash collected by these banks will have to be remitted to the Consolidated Revenue Accounts with the Bank of Tanzania at the end of each banking day. The Pessimists argue that the commercial banks will be affected immensely because of the huge drop in their deposits and perhaps the interest rates on the deposit will soar and therefore an increase in the interest rates, moreover, they will have to re-strategize their workforce by retrenching the back office staffs and hire more sales/marketing executive to secure more deposits.

My prediction is, there will be a fall in the mortgage lending rates with the introduction of TSA. How? With the TSA the government will stop borrowing some for its own money from the commercial banks through the issuance of Treasury bill/bonds, because of poor government revenue collection, the government was always a desperate borrower therefore borrowed at a high interest rate, these rates become the benchmark for lending in the commercial banks and inter banks’ lending. With good liquidity, the government through the central bank will be the lender of last resort setting a much lower benchmark when lending the commercial banks. The government will also regain its grip on effective realization of its monetary policy therefore lowering the interest rates to ease finance accessibility to the public.

Prediction two: More low cost housing schemes: In the past seven years, the private real estate developers had ignored the low and middle income group by concentrating on the development of luxury housing units for the upper and higher income group. This upper market now seems glutted, for the year 2016, there will be at least six new low cost housing schemes of around 1200 units in total to be launched in Dar es Salaam between March and December, with the going price of TZS 65 million to TZS 120 million to fill in the available huge demand gap.

Prediction three. Low Occupancy rate. The year 2016 will experience low occupancy rate in both commercial and residential units, but mostly on the commercial side of it. The commercial side seem glutted with too much available spaces chasing a very small effective demand, the situation is worsened by the recent huge fall of oil prices in the world market, forcing oil companies to reduce their budgets significantly, meaning, closing some of their operations, therefore abandoned the rented spaces both commercial and residential spaces for their workforce.

Prediction four. Low prices on commercial spaces. With low occupancy rate as per the prediction three, automatically the prices will be forced to head south. Backed by simple economics law which states that, the increase in supply of quantity demand while other things are held constant will cause a drop of price.

Prediction five. Low prices on residential rental and sell prices. The overly supply of the dwelling units and the decreasing demands especially for the upper market will notice a small price fall in both rental and selling prices. A small portion of the low end of the market is experiencing the opposite of this, the rental prices have hiked significantly in places such as Mbagala, Temeke and the places around, Example a single room that was rented for TZS.20,000/= per month is now going for TZS. 50,000/= per month, a big thank you for the “Bomoa Bomoa” Victims who are scrambling for the units.

Prediction six. Low tolerance on real estate quacks. For many years, people have been complaining about the ill behaviors of some individuals who pose as estate agents, doing a lot bad and tainting this much needed services. For the year 2016, the government has already done a draft of the bill, the real estate agency Act 2015, to be passed anytime soon. In the proposed Act, there will be a need for real estate agents and land brokers to register themselves with the registrar, have some minimum qualification to practice. Only licensed brokers and estate agents will be allowed to practice. After a long cry by the citizenry the assent of the bill is expected to improve the market environment and the government is expected to be sclerous to all the wrongdoers.

Prediction seven. Low cost on construction material. The buyers of the construction materials might see a good portion of the budget been saved, firstly, the fifth government, in its campaign rallies, before being elected promised voters to lower taxes on the construction materials to improve their housing and their wellbeing in general, therefore it is the show time now let us see it walk the talk, secondly, the increase in supply, the recently inauguration of a cement factory in Mtwara is seeing as positive contributor the consumers, the entrant firm will not only provide variety to consumers but am certain there will be some easiness on prices somehow somewhere, thirdly the oil prices, the recent decrease of oil prices will muchly affect the cost of production for the cement and other construction material manufacturers in their logistics bill therefore perhaps passing the relief to their ultimate consumers.

By: Babu Masanja
babumikael@gmail.com
17 Feb 2016

 

[Qs Yu]

Following....closely

 

[Mchimbaji]

Napinga kushuka Kwa bei ya Pango,
Kujengaa no Gharama

 

[Mkwamishaji]

Kushuka kwa riba za mikopo ndo kitu pekee kitacho boost real estate industry na kuongeza idadi ya home owners

 

[Mtangoo]

Kwa nini vishuke. Weka uchambuzi wako tuone kama unashawishi

 

[mohamedmasud]

Mwaka huu hakuna nafuu yoyote itakayotokea hata hizo kodi za pango hazitashuka kutokana na Madalali uchwara labda serkali ijenge nyumba za kupangisha,awamu hii ya tano iko kwenye mlima mrefu sana matatizo yapo kila kona hata saruji,Nondo na mabati havita shuka bei

 

[mama D]

DarProperty Tz nimeanza kukuelewa☺☺

 

[Fundisi Muhapa]

DarProperty Tz nimeanza kukuelewa

Uko api wewe?

 

[Sakasaka Mao]

Napinga kushuka Kwa bei ya Pango,
Kujengaa no Gharama

Mchimbaji, uli-comment ukiwa kwenye bodaboda ukitetemeshwa na kurushwarushwa?...'kujengaa no Gharama'.. Ndo kitu gani hicho? Non sense!

 

[KASHOROBANA]

Karibu 2016, mwaka huu tutarajie kushuhudia mabadiliko makubwa kwenye sekta ya milki (real estate). Baada ya kuikaribisha serikali ya awamu ya tano ya Jamuhuri ya Muungano ya Tanzania chini ya Raisi Dr John Magufuli. Raisi mpya, serikali mpya na mipango mipya.
Utabiri huu ukwa kiwango kikubwa unasukumwa na maamuzi na mipango ya serikali mpya. Ufuatao ni utabiri wa yatakayojiri mwaka 2016.
1. Kushuka kwa riba ya mikopo ya nyumba.
2. Kuongezeka kwa miradi ya nyumba za bei nafuu.
3. Kupungua kwa wapangaji wa nyumba za makazi na biashara.
4. Kushuka kwa bei ya majengo ya biashara.
5. Kushuka kwa bei ya kuuza na kupangisha nyumba za makazi.
6. Kutovumilika kwa wadanganyifu katika sekta ya milki (real estate)
7. Kushuka kwa bei ya vifaa vya ardhi

nadhani mpaka oct 16 hii umeshaumbuka sana na kwa kuwa umekubuhu kwa unafiki hoja zako umejifanya kama haukuandika weee.. ona hii
..riba za mikopo zimepanda na ata taasisi nyingine km CRDB mkurugenzi wake alikiri hali nonmbaya ata akaacha kukopesha
...miradi ya nyumba bado kizunguzungu kwani lukuvi anawalaumu kuwa nyumba zao ni expensive sana.
...bei kwa wapangaj haijapungua kwa both biashara. nyumba. kwan alternatively ni labda kurudi vijijini kwan nyumba bei bado juu.
Inshort hacha mbwembwe na ghiriba zako maji taka

 

[DarProperty Tz]

Kushuka kwa riba za mikopo ndo kitu pekee kitacho boost real estate industry na kuongeza idadi ya home owners

Unalolisema lina ukweli lakini litatengeneza the negative effect huko mbeleni, yaani, kama interest rates zikishuka watu wengi wataweza kumudu kununua nyumba, hili lisipoenda sanjari na ongezeko la idadi ya nyumba tutafikia sehemu idadi ya nyumba haitatosha maihitaji hivyo kupandisha bei za nyumba, real estate is a cyclic business, no permanent solution,no permanent losers neither gainers.