Geza Ulole
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 31, 2009
- 59,203
- 79,433
Dear JF Esteem members,
It has to be understood that i cherish the beauty of fundamental right to freedom of expression that JF has offered and spearhead on her site, likewise i am astonished at the respect that JF has gained to the public, being the platform that so far the mainstream media cannot afford to ignore or not to refer; meaning JF has come a long way and the discussion conducted in this platform have a great contribution in changing the dynamics of our welfare as a nation and the region at large as far as constructive criticism is concerned. The status this forum has gained from the public and even the current Government has to be safeguarded whereas the momentum be maintained throughout years to come since we need this mouthpiece to impact our Nation welfare especially at crucial moments like the phase that we are right now i.e. on transition to exploit the massive hydrocarbons (with gas already proven) resources ever discovered in this country.
In this discussion, i used Zitto as a reference out of my belief that his views count more and have weight be controversial or beneficial though on so doing i will also answer other JF members' views. It has to be well known that i have been a good follower of Zitto Kabwe (Kigoma North MP) courage; a force to reckon with on matters that are of huge importance to the welfare of our Nation. At the same time i have a disregard on matters that are of a less importance to our collective welfare, the recent Zitto and the co vs Saanane saga being one of them. Since to me, there has not been a better and more accomplished champion to push the economic agenda better than Hon. Zitto so far on our natural resources and our energy crisis. If there is anything that gives me a reason to consider Zitto as a leader is his persistence to deal with "how best" our resources can be exploited, i respect him for that and it is obvious his efforts are a big plus to his ambitions later on to people who are good at analyzing our National affairs.
Whereas that is not to be said so on his political wrangles versus his fellow leaders that so far prove to cost chances to realize his political dreams direly, as have lacked public appeal out of having no elements of reasonable tactics and strategies. Moreover they have missed a right timing to an extent of portraying or rewarding him a "power hunger individual title" seeking to topple the leadership in his party. A status that we all know neglects Patience the most delicious ingredient in handling his own and party's affairs call them "his own cooking" and unquestionably and most disturbing to politics followers lack of having a sense of decency to fellow leaders he once claimed to be inspirational to him. All that precisely coming from a man that majority of us believe has a bright future ahead of him though at the moment is seriously misguided by those surround him be advisers or friends.
Life and political experiences from the likes of Gordon Brown and Jacob Zuma (JZ) ascend to power and their performance at the helm; tell us a naturally born leader has nothing to do with creating or instigating a force within a one common force that holds and binds together a party he stands for, to brush aside the leadership that has groomed his own-self-hood to be who he is now for a main solely purpose i.e. to take the mantle of reign but a charisma to appeal to his supporters and the foes.
On 27th of this month we had a demonstration from our fellow citizens of Mtwara and Lindi regions and among the many grievances they wanted to be addressed; was a halt of a Mtwara-Dar pipeline construction regardless of the significance this project has to the welfare of this nation was their demand. Unfortunately a sizable number of leaders have come out open to support this particular demand without looking on the merits of such a call, Zitto being one of them. I specifically focus on Zitto out the fact i read the stand he issued personally and out of respect i have towards him and because i strong believe he takes criticism and i congratulate him for that. And also out of the fact that i personally associate myself with his good will for this Nation on effective use of our resources. Just like any other patriotic citizen will want, though i should state it clearly we don't know each other apart from me being a recipient of his views and ideas as a leader with affinity to media and an MP who makes better use of media to avail his views and ideas open to the his followers and hence allows them to be digested by public, i thank him for that.
Political pundits will agree with a general reality that an exposure to media is a plus and an asset as politics go with visibility though comes with risks at times; i for one feel that has to be a necessity to anybody with political ambitions. Unfortunately we have all along had leaders that we only know of their ideas and views while already in power irregardless of their merits AND NOT before they ascend to power a reason why many leadership decisions carried out end up costing us so much, a main reason why we are this behind! AND THIS has to change...a leader or anyone with ambitions for a higher office should be mandated to reveal openly his his/her views and ideas before so as to give him/her a chance to be aware if right or wrong and offer a room for correction.
NO grudges what's so ever against him as a person apart from the culture we are accustomed to as JF members; one of them being the right to accept, explain to, respond to and most IMPORTANT; be shaped to be a better person by criticism. Hon. Zitto supports this particular cause out of his assumptions that Dar is "believed" and NOT proven to have reserves of her own therefore no pipeline is needed to connect those two deplorable regions (with huge confirmed huge resources) to a rich Dar that over 60% of our GDP depends on. It is wrong for one's argument to be on assumptions basis and not on confirmed reserved especially on matters of serious economic consequences especially if decisions are to be carried out based on speculations that often are intangible oversights. Their implications can only be pegged to economic sabotage that will last for so many years of lost opportunity.
One has to ask how will Mtwara and Lindi exploit over 40 TCf of natural gas? And if they can, how long will that take for these two regions with low population densities and consumption power to be in that position? And how far will the World have moved by then to render our deposit insignificant? What will be the economic prospects of doing that? Will this approach have any sustainable outputs? Will all this make any economic sense as far as sustainable development is concerned? Apart from Zitto, there are those that support this same notion based on assumptions that power has to be generated in Mtwara and transmitted via a grid to Dar (550 km away) other regions regardless of the fact that of Power distribution infrastructure exists already. Technically, the flow of energy can be reversed (i.e. between generating source and user end) but if a need arises, so far. Much of the current flow is set up to originate from Dar going to the rest of the country. Though the physical infrastructure needs minor upgrade and maintenance to take more current, costs less and apart from limiting the revenue avenue for this gas, executing this demand will frustrate and reduce the exploitation of those huge commercial viable reserves into one and only option i.e. power production, discouraging attainment of full economic potentials of that gas.
Having a second Power transmission grid is a good idea BUT that will make more sense if the need for a second power grid exists and so far the proposed East African Power Pool interconnection will meet that demand. However, if it were my position to device the best way to use the gas i would support to be used to run vehicles and machines i.e. condensed natural gas (CNG) and urea production among others with electricity generation to a lesser extent since the several substitutes exist. Huge Geothermal and Wind potentials that lay idle could be used to generate electricity. Unfortunately these two sources are not proper researched hence nonviable and continue to remain unexploited. Until then, electrical power production remains the best viable option and together with other gas uses e.g. for vehicles, petrochemical industries and domestic uses necessitate a pipeline from the source to where the market is. Dar alone, consumes over 500,000 tons of charcoal out of 1 mio. tons consumed each year across the country for home heating a devastating amount considering charcoal comes from cutting trees and gas supply to Dar can easily substitute that considerably (cut to half), at an affordable price and environmental friendly means.
Pipeline construction to Dar become a necessity considering the serious power woes that we have had for over two decades that have been so detrimental to our economic gains likewise slowing down efforts to attain our VISION 2025, and the underlying fact that most of thermal power generators are located in or in the outskirt of Dar so as to reduce power supply loss and cost during transmission considering huge power will have to be transmitted to Dar to meet the city's needs. Therefore it is IMPORTANT that the natural gas discovered should be diligently exploited as a catalyst to spur our prospects and realize our vision. Why so? If there is one single thing that can change our economic viability from a single to double digit yearly growth, then that has to be reliable and affordable energy availability since most of our production depends on. Be it for farm produce storage or drying or manufacturing plants, reliable and affordable power availability has been a "thorn in our flesh" as far as our economic growth prospects have to be put in mind.
There is no doubt from the future economical insight, Mtwara and Lindi have potentials to be the pillar engines of our economic growth, specific from the moment the resources are fully exploited BUT THAT has to do with how smart and swift are the efforts to monetize those huge reserves. Whether Dar has her own resources or not, Mtwara and Lindi will need this most populous commercial city in the region to buy their resources AND reducing these ample potentials of that gas to only be electricity power production will not do any favor to Mtwara and Lindi and our economy at large as a Nation, considering that there are numerous factories that needs gas in its raw material form and not electricity for their production e.g. for plastic related products. Moreover those huge reserves will lose out a precious business opportunity if that pipeline is to be halted upon a confirmation of other resources in the exploration plots that are along the Dar coast (though i don't believe quantities will rival the existing in the South) as they will be rendered less viable and will only be much needed for export and that will only happen when an LNG is in place circa 10 years from now.
The prospects would have been different if Mtwara and Lindi were manufacturing power houses on themselves but the Songas 18 MW gave us a hint on how that will be economical nonviable if we take the stand that no natural gas should go out of Mtwara. Even in 50 years to come, these two regions plus Dar will not be in a position to exploit the over 40 TCf of gas so far proven leave alone the electricity produced from those huge amounts. Therefore, the natural gas economic viability has to embrace the diversification of its use.
There are those of you that might ask why not opening the plants in Mtwara and Lindi and not transporting the gas. For that rationale to be implemented, we have to factor in the cost of constructing all those factories where no demand exist, no skilled labor exist and the cost of transporting those ready made goods to cities with populations with spending muscles a scenario our Economy at infancy cannot afford. That's why market theories tell us, the best Economic approaches are those that make use of a ready market and not those dictated meaning forcefully creating Dar industries in Mtwara and Lindi the Middle east are doing that but considering the strategic location they are and at a cost also the World recession taught us refer the merits of Burj Khalfan and Palm Jumeirah.
Mtwara and Lindi will definitely be Dar on their own right but over time and we will be so wrong to push our Government to allocate her meager resources to create Dar there. Since for continuity, that has to come from a private sector just as it happened in Dar and the rest of the cities that host factories that need this gas so bad. It has to be understood Mtwara will have an upper-hand on attractive investment opportunities and that is why we see the likes of Dangote cement are emerging fast there and with a right infrastructure and sound policies i.e. modern port, LNG refinery, production of plastic other synthetic and logistic industries will be established but over time and will be sustainable if will be as a result of market's supply and demand. I am more convinced to advise the disgruntled citizens of these two regions to fight for better hydrocarbons numerations to their Municipal Governments, Petroleum Engineering and logistic universities of the size of UDOM in their backyard but that has to exclude the apathy and selfish rhetoric that clearly seek to insist on gas being theirs and deserves not to go anywhere even where the gas is commercial needed most to serve best our economy as a Nation.
I strongly believe our economy will grow over 10% if we have access to reliable and affordable power BUT that will have to do much with the agreements and contracts we sign and approve and for this matter i can't entirely denounce those demonstrations though it was important to be specific on what i supported and what i did not support. Therefore i highly recommend the locals' fight to be informed on matters concerning gas discovered as directly affect them and i passionately believe their involvement is vital in instituting TRANSPARENCY and instilling resource management DISCIPLINE a cry of the whole Nation, and the key sought after to realize the fully potentials of those reserves and many other. Moreover, public participation from the on-start of contracts negotiation to the implementation of the gas exploitation projects to what are the benefits to the locals and the general public should remain to be a collectively paramount request for our harmony co-existence as a nation. This has to go further to be the standard to every natural resources including wildlife for the benefit of our nation as far as GOOD GOVERNANCE is concerned.
It has to be understood that i cherish the beauty of fundamental right to freedom of expression that JF has offered and spearhead on her site, likewise i am astonished at the respect that JF has gained to the public, being the platform that so far the mainstream media cannot afford to ignore or not to refer; meaning JF has come a long way and the discussion conducted in this platform have a great contribution in changing the dynamics of our welfare as a nation and the region at large as far as constructive criticism is concerned. The status this forum has gained from the public and even the current Government has to be safeguarded whereas the momentum be maintained throughout years to come since we need this mouthpiece to impact our Nation welfare especially at crucial moments like the phase that we are right now i.e. on transition to exploit the massive hydrocarbons (with gas already proven) resources ever discovered in this country.
In this discussion, i used Zitto as a reference out of my belief that his views count more and have weight be controversial or beneficial though on so doing i will also answer other JF members' views. It has to be well known that i have been a good follower of Zitto Kabwe (Kigoma North MP) courage; a force to reckon with on matters that are of huge importance to the welfare of our Nation. At the same time i have a disregard on matters that are of a less importance to our collective welfare, the recent Zitto and the co vs Saanane saga being one of them. Since to me, there has not been a better and more accomplished champion to push the economic agenda better than Hon. Zitto so far on our natural resources and our energy crisis. If there is anything that gives me a reason to consider Zitto as a leader is his persistence to deal with "how best" our resources can be exploited, i respect him for that and it is obvious his efforts are a big plus to his ambitions later on to people who are good at analyzing our National affairs.
Whereas that is not to be said so on his political wrangles versus his fellow leaders that so far prove to cost chances to realize his political dreams direly, as have lacked public appeal out of having no elements of reasonable tactics and strategies. Moreover they have missed a right timing to an extent of portraying or rewarding him a "power hunger individual title" seeking to topple the leadership in his party. A status that we all know neglects Patience the most delicious ingredient in handling his own and party's affairs call them "his own cooking" and unquestionably and most disturbing to politics followers lack of having a sense of decency to fellow leaders he once claimed to be inspirational to him. All that precisely coming from a man that majority of us believe has a bright future ahead of him though at the moment is seriously misguided by those surround him be advisers or friends.
Life and political experiences from the likes of Gordon Brown and Jacob Zuma (JZ) ascend to power and their performance at the helm; tell us a naturally born leader has nothing to do with creating or instigating a force within a one common force that holds and binds together a party he stands for, to brush aside the leadership that has groomed his own-self-hood to be who he is now for a main solely purpose i.e. to take the mantle of reign but a charisma to appeal to his supporters and the foes.
On 27th of this month we had a demonstration from our fellow citizens of Mtwara and Lindi regions and among the many grievances they wanted to be addressed; was a halt of a Mtwara-Dar pipeline construction regardless of the significance this project has to the welfare of this nation was their demand. Unfortunately a sizable number of leaders have come out open to support this particular demand without looking on the merits of such a call, Zitto being one of them. I specifically focus on Zitto out the fact i read the stand he issued personally and out of respect i have towards him and because i strong believe he takes criticism and i congratulate him for that. And also out of the fact that i personally associate myself with his good will for this Nation on effective use of our resources. Just like any other patriotic citizen will want, though i should state it clearly we don't know each other apart from me being a recipient of his views and ideas as a leader with affinity to media and an MP who makes better use of media to avail his views and ideas open to the his followers and hence allows them to be digested by public, i thank him for that.
Political pundits will agree with a general reality that an exposure to media is a plus and an asset as politics go with visibility though comes with risks at times; i for one feel that has to be a necessity to anybody with political ambitions. Unfortunately we have all along had leaders that we only know of their ideas and views while already in power irregardless of their merits AND NOT before they ascend to power a reason why many leadership decisions carried out end up costing us so much, a main reason why we are this behind! AND THIS has to change...a leader or anyone with ambitions for a higher office should be mandated to reveal openly his his/her views and ideas before so as to give him/her a chance to be aware if right or wrong and offer a room for correction.
NO grudges what's so ever against him as a person apart from the culture we are accustomed to as JF members; one of them being the right to accept, explain to, respond to and most IMPORTANT; be shaped to be a better person by criticism. Hon. Zitto supports this particular cause out of his assumptions that Dar is "believed" and NOT proven to have reserves of her own therefore no pipeline is needed to connect those two deplorable regions (with huge confirmed huge resources) to a rich Dar that over 60% of our GDP depends on. It is wrong for one's argument to be on assumptions basis and not on confirmed reserved especially on matters of serious economic consequences especially if decisions are to be carried out based on speculations that often are intangible oversights. Their implications can only be pegged to economic sabotage that will last for so many years of lost opportunity.
One has to ask how will Mtwara and Lindi exploit over 40 TCf of natural gas? And if they can, how long will that take for these two regions with low population densities and consumption power to be in that position? And how far will the World have moved by then to render our deposit insignificant? What will be the economic prospects of doing that? Will this approach have any sustainable outputs? Will all this make any economic sense as far as sustainable development is concerned? Apart from Zitto, there are those that support this same notion based on assumptions that power has to be generated in Mtwara and transmitted via a grid to Dar (550 km away) other regions regardless of the fact that of Power distribution infrastructure exists already. Technically, the flow of energy can be reversed (i.e. between generating source and user end) but if a need arises, so far. Much of the current flow is set up to originate from Dar going to the rest of the country. Though the physical infrastructure needs minor upgrade and maintenance to take more current, costs less and apart from limiting the revenue avenue for this gas, executing this demand will frustrate and reduce the exploitation of those huge commercial viable reserves into one and only option i.e. power production, discouraging attainment of full economic potentials of that gas.
Having a second Power transmission grid is a good idea BUT that will make more sense if the need for a second power grid exists and so far the proposed East African Power Pool interconnection will meet that demand. However, if it were my position to device the best way to use the gas i would support to be used to run vehicles and machines i.e. condensed natural gas (CNG) and urea production among others with electricity generation to a lesser extent since the several substitutes exist. Huge Geothermal and Wind potentials that lay idle could be used to generate electricity. Unfortunately these two sources are not proper researched hence nonviable and continue to remain unexploited. Until then, electrical power production remains the best viable option and together with other gas uses e.g. for vehicles, petrochemical industries and domestic uses necessitate a pipeline from the source to where the market is. Dar alone, consumes over 500,000 tons of charcoal out of 1 mio. tons consumed each year across the country for home heating a devastating amount considering charcoal comes from cutting trees and gas supply to Dar can easily substitute that considerably (cut to half), at an affordable price and environmental friendly means.
Pipeline construction to Dar become a necessity considering the serious power woes that we have had for over two decades that have been so detrimental to our economic gains likewise slowing down efforts to attain our VISION 2025, and the underlying fact that most of thermal power generators are located in or in the outskirt of Dar so as to reduce power supply loss and cost during transmission considering huge power will have to be transmitted to Dar to meet the city's needs. Therefore it is IMPORTANT that the natural gas discovered should be diligently exploited as a catalyst to spur our prospects and realize our vision. Why so? If there is one single thing that can change our economic viability from a single to double digit yearly growth, then that has to be reliable and affordable energy availability since most of our production depends on. Be it for farm produce storage or drying or manufacturing plants, reliable and affordable power availability has been a "thorn in our flesh" as far as our economic growth prospects have to be put in mind.
There is no doubt from the future economical insight, Mtwara and Lindi have potentials to be the pillar engines of our economic growth, specific from the moment the resources are fully exploited BUT THAT has to do with how smart and swift are the efforts to monetize those huge reserves. Whether Dar has her own resources or not, Mtwara and Lindi will need this most populous commercial city in the region to buy their resources AND reducing these ample potentials of that gas to only be electricity power production will not do any favor to Mtwara and Lindi and our economy at large as a Nation, considering that there are numerous factories that needs gas in its raw material form and not electricity for their production e.g. for plastic related products. Moreover those huge reserves will lose out a precious business opportunity if that pipeline is to be halted upon a confirmation of other resources in the exploration plots that are along the Dar coast (though i don't believe quantities will rival the existing in the South) as they will be rendered less viable and will only be much needed for export and that will only happen when an LNG is in place circa 10 years from now.
The prospects would have been different if Mtwara and Lindi were manufacturing power houses on themselves but the Songas 18 MW gave us a hint on how that will be economical nonviable if we take the stand that no natural gas should go out of Mtwara. Even in 50 years to come, these two regions plus Dar will not be in a position to exploit the over 40 TCf of gas so far proven leave alone the electricity produced from those huge amounts. Therefore, the natural gas economic viability has to embrace the diversification of its use.
There are those of you that might ask why not opening the plants in Mtwara and Lindi and not transporting the gas. For that rationale to be implemented, we have to factor in the cost of constructing all those factories where no demand exist, no skilled labor exist and the cost of transporting those ready made goods to cities with populations with spending muscles a scenario our Economy at infancy cannot afford. That's why market theories tell us, the best Economic approaches are those that make use of a ready market and not those dictated meaning forcefully creating Dar industries in Mtwara and Lindi the Middle east are doing that but considering the strategic location they are and at a cost also the World recession taught us refer the merits of Burj Khalfan and Palm Jumeirah.
Mtwara and Lindi will definitely be Dar on their own right but over time and we will be so wrong to push our Government to allocate her meager resources to create Dar there. Since for continuity, that has to come from a private sector just as it happened in Dar and the rest of the cities that host factories that need this gas so bad. It has to be understood Mtwara will have an upper-hand on attractive investment opportunities and that is why we see the likes of Dangote cement are emerging fast there and with a right infrastructure and sound policies i.e. modern port, LNG refinery, production of plastic other synthetic and logistic industries will be established but over time and will be sustainable if will be as a result of market's supply and demand. I am more convinced to advise the disgruntled citizens of these two regions to fight for better hydrocarbons numerations to their Municipal Governments, Petroleum Engineering and logistic universities of the size of UDOM in their backyard but that has to exclude the apathy and selfish rhetoric that clearly seek to insist on gas being theirs and deserves not to go anywhere even where the gas is commercial needed most to serve best our economy as a Nation.
I strongly believe our economy will grow over 10% if we have access to reliable and affordable power BUT that will have to do much with the agreements and contracts we sign and approve and for this matter i can't entirely denounce those demonstrations though it was important to be specific on what i supported and what i did not support. Therefore i highly recommend the locals' fight to be informed on matters concerning gas discovered as directly affect them and i passionately believe their involvement is vital in instituting TRANSPARENCY and instilling resource management DISCIPLINE a cry of the whole Nation, and the key sought after to realize the fully potentials of those reserves and many other. Moreover, public participation from the on-start of contracts negotiation to the implementation of the gas exploitation projects to what are the benefits to the locals and the general public should remain to be a collectively paramount request for our harmony co-existence as a nation. This has to go further to be the standard to every natural resources including wildlife for the benefit of our nation as far as GOOD GOVERNANCE is concerned.
