Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

Independent-Mind · Apr 1, 2015

Am so astonished with such kind of poor analysis..... It sounds crazy comparing Kenyan politics with our own...

I thank you for the courage of posting your thread. But for your information Zitto is totally nothing in our politics....
He is very much closer to his political death!!

Only the clueless people out there will support your inferior theory!!

KAKA JP OMUGA,kwenye hiyo Red jaribu kuwa mhalisia kidogo usilete unazi katika vitu vya msingi.Only a fool will underestimate Zitto in Tanzanian Politics

respect wa boda · Apr 1, 2015

Mbona unaanza na kuchimba biti watu hapa??

Kuwakwako member toka mwaka 2007 kinatusaidia nini sisi hapa? Jenga hoja yako bila kutoa vitisho utaeleweka tu, huna haja ya kutengeneza baunsa kwa vitisho vyako hapa... alalaaaaah..!!!! Ukiongea hoja yenye mantiki itajadiliwa hoja, ukiandika upuuzi hapa utajadiriwa upuuzi wako..!! hatuna haja ya kujua umejiunga lini Jf. Na huu ndio uzuri na changamoto ya Jf ya sasa.!!

Back to the topic.

Eti unasema Chadema pekee wana kura 2ml?? Na Zitto pekee ana kura 1.5ml...!!! We jamaa kunasehemu umeamkia kweli si bure.. Hivi Unajua idadi ya wanachama wa Chadema nchi nzima?? Yaani kwa hoja yako unataka kusema kuna watu zaidi ya Milioni moja nukta tano, wameondoka na Zitto kwenda Act?? Jitafakari upya kaka..!!! Hii ni 2015 wala si 2010,2005 or 2000/1995...!!!

Binafsi mimi sina tatizo na Zitto, nunamuunga mkono tangu zamani, ila ninakuhakikishia pindi akisimama Zitto kugombea Urais Sambamba na Mgombea yeyote wa Chadema/UKAWA, Zitto aisahau kura yangu. Kumuunga kwangu mkono Zitto ni ktk Ubunge Yaah namuhitaji Bungeni kwaajili ya kuongeza nguvu ya upinzani Bungeni maana naye anajitanabaisha kwamba ni mpinzani. Yes hili nitalipigania kwa nguvu zangu zote hata kwa maombi.

Halafu tambua, ujanja wa Kenyatta Uhuru ndio uliopelekea yeye kuungana na Ruto pale Kenya. Kabila la Ruto ndilo lililompa u-Vice President pale Kenya na si vinginevyo..!!!

Kenyatta baada ya kutambua nguvu za kabila lake na nguvu za Kabila la William Ruto ndio akaamua kuomba kuungana, maana kwa siasa za ukabila za Kenya Kenyatta asingepata chochote kwenye uchaguzi ule ,zaidi angemtengenezea njia rahisi ya kuingia ikulu bwana Odinga. Sisi hapa Tanzania hatuna siasa za ukabila ile sema siasa za Udini zinaanza kutuvamia taratibu bila kujijua (kilaaniwe chama kilichopo madarakani) Lakini hata tukija kwenye hizo siasa za udini UKAWA imekuwa tumaini la Wananchi kwasababu ya hizo siasa za udini, (Sote tunatambua namna ccm walivyovivumisha vyama viwili Cdm na Cuf) Na hapa ndipo ninapikushangaa unapodai ati ni heri kwa Chadema kuomba kuungana na Zitto kuliko kuomba kuungana na Lipumba (Cuf) nadhani mkuu umeamua kufuraisha baraza hapa.!!!

Hivi Lipumba kwa siasa zetu hapa Tanzania hana impact yoyote isipkuwa Zitto..!!!! Jamani hata kama tunawajenga watu kwa malango wa nyuma tijitafakari maana tunaweza kuwa tunawabomoa kwa mlango na lengo lilelile tulilokuwa tunadhani tunawajenga.

Khaaaaaaaa....!!!!!

BACK TANGANYIKA

mkonozi · Apr 1, 2015

respect wa boda said:
Mbona unaanza na kuchimba biti watu hapa??

Kuwakwako member toka mwaka 2007 kinatusaidia nini sisi hapa? Jenga hoja yako bila kutoa vitisho utaeleweka tu, huna haja ya kutengeneza baunsa kwa vitisho vyako hapa... alalaaaaah..!!!! Ukiongea hoja yenye mantiki itajadiliwa hoja, ukiandika upuuzi hapa utajadiriwa upuuzi wako..!! hatuna haja ya kujua umejiunga lini Jf. Na huu ndio uzuri na changamoto ya Jf ya sasa.!!

Back to the topic.

Eti unasema Chadema pekee wana kura 2ml?? Na Zitto pekee ana kura 1.5ml...!!! We jamaa kunasehemu umeamkia kweli si bure.. Hivi Unajua idadi ya wanachama wa Chadema nchi nzima?? Yaani kwa hoja yako unataka kusema kuna watu zaidi ya Milioni moja nukta tano, wameondoka na Zitto kwenda Act?? Jitafakari upya kaka..!!! Hii ni 2015 wala si 2010,2005 or 2000/1995...!!!

Binafsi mimi sina tatizo na Zitto, nunamuunga mkono tangu zamani, ila ninakuhakikishia pindi akisimama Zitto kugombea Urais Sambamba na Mgombea yeyote wa Chadema/UKAWA, Zitto aisahau kura yangu. Kumuunga kwangu mkono Zitto ni ktk Ubunge Yaah namuhitaji Bungeni kwaajili ya kuongeza nguvu ya upinzani Bungeni maana naye anajitanabaisha kwamba ni mpinzani. Yes hili nitalipigania kwa nguvu zangu zote hata kwa maombi.

Halafu tambua, ujanja wa Kenyatta Uhuru ndio uliopelekea yeye kuungana na Ruto pale Kenya. Kabila la Ruto ndilo lililompa u-Vice President pale Kenya na si vinginevyo..!!!

Kenyatta baada ya kutambua nguvu za kabila lake na nguvu za Kabila la William Ruto ndio akaamua kuomba kuungana, maana kwa siasa za ukabila za Kenya Kenyatta asingepata chochote kwenye uchaguzi ule ,zaidi angemtengenezea njia rahisi ya kuingia ikulu bwana Odinga. Sisi hapa Tanzania hatuna siasa za ukabila ile sema siasa za Udini zinaanza kutuvamia taratibu bila kujijua (kilaaniwe chama kilichopo madarakani) Lakini hata tukija kwenye hizo siasa za udini UKAWA imekuwa tumaini la Wananchi kwasababu ya hizo siasa za udini, (Sote tunatambua namna ccm walivyovivumisha vyama viwili Cdm na Cuf) Na hapa ndipo ninapikushangaa unapodai ati ni heri kwa Chadema kuomba kuungana na Zitto kuliko kuomba kuungana na Lipumba (Cuf) nadhani mkuu umeamua kufuraisha baraza hapa.!!!

Hivi Lipumba kwa siasa zetu hapa Tanzania hana impact yoyote isipkuwa Zitto..!!!! Jamani hata kama tunawajenga watu kwa malango wa nyuma tijitafakari maana tunaweza kuwa tunawabomoa kwa mlango na lengo lilelile tulilokuwa tunadhani tunawajenga.

Khaaaaaaaa....!!!!!

BACK TANGANYIKA

Lipumba hana mvuto wa kisiasa. Ameshagombea miaka yote hiyo na hakuna lolote. Halafu ilishasemwa kwamba cuf ni ccm b. Sasa nisichoelewa hata mimi ni kwanini cuf wamegeuka wasafi sasa hivi mbele ya macho ya chadema.

Simple · Apr 1, 2015

ukara said:
Why should we believe on what you are telling us?

You don,t have to believe anything ndugu. Believe in yourself

Simple · Apr 1, 2015

Jp Omuga said:
Am so astonished with what kind of a poor analysis this is..... It sounds crazy comparing Kenyan politics with our own...

I thank you for the courage of posting your thread. But for your information Zitto is totally nothing in our politics....
He is very much closer to his political death!! If you are his die-hard supporter you better look for a replacement...

Anyway you are free to exercise your legal rights to freedom of speech. But be as it may; only the clueless people out there will support your inferior theory!!

I still find alot of similarities among the two countries, there is nothing crazy looking at the trend from your neighbor. Zitto is no longer relevant for chadema, but in TZ politics especially the coming election, he is still very relevant. I am a die hard supporter of Tanzania and democracy.

I am not seeking for anybody's support for anything, I am looking for other sober analyst who can analyze much better than what i think ili nijifunze.

RELAX YOUR MIND AND ALLOW DISCUSSIONS TO EDUCATE YOURSELF EVEN MORE.

Steph Curry · Apr 1, 2015

Simple said:
I still find alot of similarities among the two countries, there is nothing crazy looking at the trend from your neighbor. Zitto is no longer relevant for chadema, but in TZ politics especially the coming election, he is still very relevant. I am a die hard supporter of Tanzania and democracy.

I am not seeking for anybody's support for anything, I am looking for other sober analyst who can analyze much better than what i think ili nijifunze.

RELAX YOUR MIND AND ALLOW DISCUSSIONS TO EDUCATE YOURSELF EVEN MORE.

Kujiridhisha na hiyo red mark hapo juzi niliamua kupita kijiweni kwa madereva bodaboda kupiga nao story mbili tatu baada ya kumaliza shughuli zangu. Nikawagusia hilo swala la Zitto na ACT, nilichojibiwa na wale jamaa kilinipa matumaini kwamba pamoja na serekasi zote hizi bado wapiga kura muhimu wa mwaka huu (vijana) bado wako na UKAWA regardless ni nani atasimamishwa kwenye ile post ya Urais..

After saying that hata unaweza ukaendelea na serekasi zako...

Malinyingi · Apr 1, 2015

tindo said:
Kwa jinsi ulivyomalizia uzi wako wewe mleta mada unaonekana kama unajishuku hivi. Hiyo mifano unayotolea kuhusu Kenya sidhani kama ungeitolea kwenye upande wa maendeleo.

Ni hivi hapa naona kama umekuja kuandaa watu kisaikolojia kwamba Ukawa watashindwa na unalazimisha sababu iwe ni Zitto.

Kama kweli unachokisema ni hicho mbona hao CHADEMA hawakushinda urais 2010 wakati Zitto akiwa bado cdm?

Umeweka na idadi kabisa ya wapiga kura kwa mujibu wa mtazamo wako, lakini ukiangalia ni kama vile mada yako inalazimisha kwamba bila Zitto basi Ukawa hawawezi kushinda urais!!

Hivi ni nani unaweza kumdaganya tena kwa hisia za kwamba bila Zitto CHADEMA hakuna. Wote wanaomini mtazamo wako wanatoka ccm na kwao ni faraja bila uhalisia.

Naomba nikupe mfano mrahisi wa karibuni, hivi majuzi kumefanyika uchaguzi wa serekali za mitaa, ukiachia mbali zoezi kuendeshwa kwa hila na mapungufu mengi, CHADEMA wamezoa viti vingi sana bila mchango wowote wa Zitto.

Sasa nashangaa unalazimisha data za mwaka 2010 unaacha za hivi karibuni kabisa na madhara yake kwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao.

Kama ni kweli usemacho nilitarajia uchaguzi huu uliopita miezi michache ndio ingekuwa sehemu ya wewe kujengea hoja na sio mwaka 2010 ambapo hata aina ya matokeo yalipatikana kwa vitisho na ugomvi mkubwa.

Kama unataka kumtetea Zitto wewe mtetee kwa njia nyingine na sio zaidi ya hapo.

Mkuu kuna utofauti mkubwa sana kati ya Chaguzi za serikali za mtaa na uchaguzi mkuu. Kwakuzingatia kwa maamuzi ya kufukuzwa Zito yamekuja baadua ya kumfukuza/kujiondoa. Kwa sasa kumbuka Zito anasimama kwa Nguvu mpya na Chama kipya chenye sura ya ujana, ambayo ndio gharama kubwa itakayo lipia chadema

New City · Apr 1, 2015

Larusai Mux said:
Good analysis ila umekosea ulivyompa zzk 1.5 ml votes!..bila kujua washangiliagi wengi unaowaona upande wa zzk ni wapambe wa ccm,pia umesahau kuweka idadi ya kura ya either toka 2010 chadema imeloose au imegain and ccm,cuf nccr too!..,pia hujaweza kutoa makadirio ya kura za 2015 za ukawa as organization zaid ya kudili na chadema tu!,
Umetumia sana qualitative methods dhani quantitative methods,imeipa ccm 4mil permanent votes bila kuchek kwa makin tofauti matokeo ya 2005,2010 ili upate time treand series analysis nzuri kwa 2015!.
Ni vyema pia ukaweka maanani kwa factors muhimu zilizo na zinazobadilika km
1.techology eg simu,na mawasiliano effects kwa voters to ccm vs ukawa
2.Ages and deaths effects kwa voters to ccm vs ukawa
3.political situations to voters to ccm vs ukaw
4.nk,nk,nk

Logic

Una akili sana bro, gooder kama sio better analysis, hao wengine naona povu tu na ushabiki ndio umewajaa bila ya hoja thabiti

Independent-Mind · Apr 1, 2015

Mkuu Mtoa mada leo umewakamata Bavicha,wamezoea Blaa blaa tu na kupiga kelele za ushabiki,leo yanahitajika maelezo ya msingi yenye kuleta sensible analysis wamekimbia waliopo wanaishia tu ooh ACT wewe,Juha etc,Bavicha at their best.

MTENDAHAKI · Apr 1, 2015

Watu8 said:
Swali jepesi tu kwako...

Je Zitto ana kigezo cha umri kumruhusu kuwa mgombea Urais 2015?

Hivi umri wa makamu wa Rais nao ni 40?Inabidi niitafute katiba ya zamani tena sikusoma hapa!

UMBWE1 · Apr 1, 2015

Independent-Mind said:
Mleta Mada natofautiana na kufanana na wewe hivi:
1.Sidhani kama ACT au Zitto kama ulivoamua kusema kwamba atashinda urais 2015,sijaona uhalisia hapa kwa sababu Zitto by any means hawezi kuwa amefikisha umri wa kugombania urais by October,Lakini pia kwa yeyote atakayegombea uchanga wa chama unahusika moja kwa moja kutokupata ushindi kwa ACT.Lakini Mtazamo wangu ni huu;
2.ACT inaweza kushinda uchaguzi 2020:
a)Kumbuka Chadema imepata Pigo kubwa sana kuondoka kwa Zitto(wapo watakaokataa lakini ni uhuru wao),hivyo Chadema kwa sasa inatumia mgongo wa UKAWA kuonekana kama bado iko strong as before.
b)Baada ya uchaguzi mkuu(ambao naipa CCM asilimia kubwa ya kushinda),hakutakuwa na kitu kinaitwa UKAWA nakuunga mkono kama ulivosema hata origination yake haikuwa kwa ajili ya uchaguzi bali katiba,kutokana na hilo Basi tutaruri kulekule kwenye vyama tofauti kama ilivyokuwa awali,thn hapo ndipo udhaifu wa Chadema utakapoanza kuonekana wazi(kumbuka Zitto alisema kuna wabunge Zaidi ya 10 kutoka Chadema watajiunga na ACT sidhani kama hakuna ukweli juu ya hili therefore Chadema itakuwa taaban na ACT itakuwa on the rise ukizingatia walivojipanga and without forgetting the 'Zitto factor'
3.Anayesema ACT bado sana sio mhalisia,kumbuka imewachukua Chadema only 5 years kutoka wabunge 4 hadi 46(sina uhakika sana na hiyo figure) so the same thing can happen to ACT.Kumbuka Tanzania kuna vyama vya siasa 22 lakini katika uchaguzi wa serikali za mitaa za mwaka huu overall results za NEC imeiweka ACT nafasi ya 5,hiyo ni kabla hata ya kuzinduliwa rasmi.
4.ACT inaonekana kuja kitofauti zaidi katika kutangaza sera zao na kuwafikia wananchi: Kumbuka tuko katika Internet and Social media awareness generation,Kwa haraka haraka tu toka uzinduzi wao nimegundua ACT wametambua umuhimu wa ICT and Social Media Platforms katika kujijenga.Kuna mchangiaji alisema "Kitaenda wapi chama cha Facebook hiki?",Hakika hajajua nguvu ya Facebook katika Prosperity sio tu ya Chama cha siasa lakini hata Kibiashara.Labda huenda anaitumia FB kwa ku-upload Photos only.Utafiti Rasmi ulionyesha kwamba kitu kimoja kilichochangia Barack Obama kushinda ni jinsi walivyojitangaza kupitia Social Media platforms Including Facebook na kuwafikia vijana wengi(Kumbuka Vijana wa sasa its all about Internet).

Watu wa ACT mnajua kuandika mngekuwa waaminifu kama mnavyooangaika kupangilia maandishi YENU tungefika mbali

ligati · Apr 1, 2015

Simple said:
Kawe,Ubungo,Iringa mjini,Rukwa na mengineyo

Haya bwana kwahiyo hao wengine wa chadema ikiwemo Slaa mwenyewe hakufanya campaign huko? Halafu bado haujajibu swali langu kwanini kwenye jimbo lake la zamani (Kigoma Kaskazini) Chadema walishindwa uraisi ? au ndio hakufanya campaign huko

UMBWE1 · Apr 1, 2015

Hivi nani kawadanganya zitto ananguvu sana Kigoma? mbona mnajitekenya na kucheka wenyewe.Ni rahic zitto kugombea ubunge twitter au facebook na kushinda kuliko kuwa mshindi wa pili kwenye jimbo la kigoma mjini.UKAWA hawamuitaji kabisa zitto wakimuunganisha watampa kibuli.alafu Kitila,na zitto na mwigamba acheni kutujazia thread na majina yenu fake mkifanya analysisi zisizo za kweli,mjipange muache siasa za chuki

PLEASE · Apr 1, 2015

Simple said:
Ndugu Tindo,

By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu

mkuu uchaguzi wa serikali za mtaa ulihusu nchi nzima, na ukawa walijitahidi kuweka wagombea karibu nchi nzima achilia mbali michezo waliocheza chama tawala kuwaengua wagombea wao, huwezi dharau uchaguzi uliohusu nchi nzima na ukawa kufanya vizuri kwa sababu tu ya kumtetea na kumjenga zitto, by the way rutto unaemlinganisha zitto ni presedential material

alafu sijui unajua kuwa zitto 2010 hakuipigia kampeni cdm kigoma badala yake aliwasaidia kufulila na wenzake

mtamlinganisha sana mtu wenu na wanasiasa wa africa lakini haitasaidia, zitto anatakiwa ajirekebishe atazeeka vibaya, we ona mambo yote aliyokuwa anayapiga vita cdm ndio kwanza yeye ndio kayafanya huko act, katiba imerebishwa ndani ya siku saba kwa sababu ya zitto

mrema na zitto nani alikuwa maarufu?

PLEASE · Apr 1, 2015

Simple said:
RUZUKU za kampeni siku zote uleta matatizo kwenye Upinzani Tanzania. Hizo ndo tamaa ninazozizungumzia mimi.

mkuu kwa hiyo una maanisha zitto akiingizwa ukawa awe running mate wa lipumba/slaa kama ulivyoaema huko nyuma ruzuku za kampeni hazitaleta matatizo

KIBARAone · Apr 1, 2015

HAYO ni yako. Ukawa iko IMARA

BUBERWA D. · Apr 1, 2015

Zanzibar-ASP said:
Poor analysis and calculation.
Why?
1/Zitto Kabwe was never been a costant factor for winning of CCM or CHADEMA in any presidental race, so it is not right to compare with Willium Ruto.

2/CHADEMA is more powerful and Popular than any Individual part member of CHADEMA. That why CHADEMA fired Kaborou, Zitto ets and still remained stable and popular.

3/CHADEMA in Kigoma was there before Zitto Kabwe, and still more popular than Zitto Kabwe, now and before. To prove that go to 2010 General Election results.

4/UKAWA is collition agenda from different Parties not a single person that why it hits the nation in every angle.

kakingereza ka iddamin dada

PLEASE · Apr 1, 2015

stanlthecreator said:
Nice analysis,nakubaliana na wewe kuhusu mtazamo wa watanzania wengi kwa sasa,wanaangalia sana mgombea gani kuliko chama hii ni tofauti na 2010.Kwa mantiki hii kura laki 2 kama ulizoandika hapo za ACT zinaweza kuwa zaid (mayb even million) japo sina data za population za kigoma na tabora bt Zito popularity inaweza kuchange upepo wa upinzani na kuongeza kula za ACT.

act watamsimamisha nani? mkumbo? zitto hana vigezo kulingana na katiba

TEKNOLOJIA · Apr 1, 2015

Independent-Mind said:
Mkuu Mtoa mada leo umewakamata Bavicha,wamezoea Blaa blaa tu na kupiga kelele za ushabiki,leo yanahitajika maelezo ya msingi yenye kuleta sensible analysis wamekimbia waliopo wanaishia tu ooh ACT wewe,Juha etc,Bavicha at their best.

Hamna kitu hapo,hata mbumbumbu wa mwisho darasani atagundua emptiness katika analysis ya jamaa.hivi hiyo idadi ya wafuasi milioni 1.5 ya Zitto aliipata wapi?atupe source ya hiyo data zake.
Pia amechemsha kulinganisha siasa za Kenya na za Tanzania, zipo tofauti kabisa.turufu pekee ya Zitto ni kwa Waislamu lakini pia hana lake kwasababu hana historia ya kuwapigania Waislamu.Vijana nao hawana imani sana na Zitto, walimkubali kipindi kile,now it's no more.

ukara · Apr 1, 2015

Simple said:
You don,t have to believe anything ndugu. Believe in yourself

As per what is written as title of your topic which reads: Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election is where I am asking you to substantiate your statement.

Again and again Why should we believe on what you are telling us?

Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

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