Naona watu hii kitu wanaichukulia masihara, but trust me, it's not.
Tukumbuke ingawaje both Russia na US wapo Syria lakini hawapo ndani ya direct confrontation.
US yupo kuwasaidia Waasi wanaotaka kumuondoa Asad madarakani na Russia yupo Syria kuhakikisha Waasi wanaotumiwa na US hawamuondoi Assad madarakani.
Hapo juu pia ni sababu kwanini Iran yupo Syria!
Lakini hili la sasa ni tofauti. Wakati hapo kabla ni Waasi ndio walikuwa wanafanya direct confrontation kwa Assad na hivyo ku-face direct confrontation from Russia; kinachoshadadiwa hivi sasa ni Assad ku-face confrontation directly from US.
Shambulio la moja kwa moja la US kwa Syria ina maana ni shambulio la moja kwa moja la US dhidi ya majeshi ya Russia ya Iran yaliyopo Syria!
Hadi hapo, kwa kuanzia tunapata equation:
US vs Syria + Russia.
Kwavile US hawezi kupata UN support kutokana na Veto ya Russia and of course, China; hakuna shaka kimbelembele namba moja kujiunga hapo atakuwa UK.
Kuingia kwa UK kutafuatiwa mapema sana na France. The equation becomes:
US + UK + France vs Syria + Russia.
Ikifika hapo; hapatakuwa na namna bali Iran kulazimika kuendeleza alipoishia! The equation becomes:
US + UK + France vs Syria + Russia + Iran.
Kufikia hapo; kuna kimbelembele mwingine nae atataka aingie! Kimbelembele huyu mashabiki wake wanamuita "Taifa la Mungu" a.k.a Israel.
Hata hivyo, wenye shoo yao watamwambia "Dogo tulia"
Kwa upande mwingine; Russia atalazimika kusogeza majeshi yake jirani na lango la NATO. Kufikia hayo, bila shaka atatumia base zake zilizopo Belarus na kwa sasa uhusiano wa Russia na Belarus ni mzuri!
Ni muhimu sana kwa Russia kuwa Belarus kuzuia uwezekano wa NATO kuingia Russia.
That said, endapo Russia atafanikiwa kusogeza majeshi yake Belarus ina maana atakuwa jirani kabisa na Poland ambalo ni lango kuu la kuingilia NATO.
Aidha, Poland hajapata kumuamin Russia hata siku moja! In short, Russia ni Poland's greatest enemy.
To cut a long story short, hii tunayoishabikia ikitokea inaweza kusababisha mataifa mengi kuingia!