Meneja Wa Makampuni
JF-Expert Member
- Jul 7, 2020
- 6,327
- 8,243
The Unintended Side Effects of Sanctions on Russia
(Warning: Long but deeply revealing read on the soon to come monetary system consequences of this war)! ☺️
If you've been reading my posts here in Jamii forum, then you know that I have always had a contrarian view of this Russia Ukraine war since it began.
Yesterday I came across this "statement" from
Phil Seymour - President of the Association of European Leasing Companies.
This is what he had to say about their predicament vis-a-vis the said war and it's imposed "stiff" sanctions and their unintended consequences.
All over the word airlines don't own their own planes, they lease them.
The European Union has imposed sanctions on Russia and obliged European leasing companies to take back all leased aircraft from Russia by March 28th.
That's a total of 520 aircraft!
Now, here are some conundrums this will cause...
#1. Return of 520 aircraft!
How is this to be done? The Russians said if you refuse to lease them to us, get them back yourself! How can we get 520 crews to Russia when the airspace in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine is closed? We can't fly in!
#2. The handover
Once the handover has taken place in Russian airports, the planes will no longer be Russian. But a non-Russian plane is not allowed to fly in Russian airspace – the Russian airspace is blocked! We won't be able to fly out!
#3. Who initiates these lease terminations?
The leasing companies are the initiators of the termination of these leases. In the original calculation of the cost of fines in such a case, we will all be bankrupted at once. It's easier and cheaper to go bankrupt than to take back the planes.
#4. Due payments (how to pay?)
February is over and Russia has to pay the lease payments for the month. Russia is willing to pay but cannot pay because it is excluded from SWIFT. We ourselves have to pay fines because of the terminations, but in view of the lack of incoming payments from Russia we have no money for such payments!
#5. Where do we take the planes?
Even if we take back these planes, what are we going to do with them? We don't need them, nobody wants them and it's impossible to sell them!
#6. Airbus stands to lose out!
The Boeings of American leasing companies are not affected. If Europe takes the planes away from the Russians, the US will supply Russia with its Boeing planes and become the world's No. 1 airline, bankrupting both the European leasing company and Airbus.
Wow! What a dilemma! 😳
Vladimir Putin didn’t just invade the Ukraine on the 24th February, he officially ended the petrodollar system.
How?
Remember, Russians don’t do anything without a plan. They and China have been prepping for this moment for years and are now ready:
Russia has stated NATO expansion into Ukraine was a red line.
👉🏾 They knew their invasion of Ukraine would be inevitable and would have strategized that the US/West’s response would be SWIFT US dollar system exclusions and related sanctions.
👉🏾 It is reasonable to expect that Russia’s next step would have been to shut off oil and gas pipelines to Europe, as Russia has built up huge Yuan, Gold & commodity reserves for themselves to "weather" this storm.
👉🏾 This will cause massive price and supply disruptions (war level) to the western markets and monetary system. (Here in Tanzania and all over Africa the fuel pump price increase is already happening and this war has been blamed)
👉🏾 For years Russia and China have looked for ways to re-monetize gold and exit abuses of the SWIFT system as a geo-political tool against them, but their challenge was how to do it, how to exit, without the West declaring it an act of aggression or war against them?
Well, the ruse has "shown up" and the process is now there.
👉🏾 This Ukraine invasion just accomplished that end for them. And the West is doing it themselves.
👉🏾 Now, freed to declare themselves SWIFT system outcasts by the western govt hands, Russia can now say “we will turn oil pipelines back on, but not for dollars.” 🤔
👉🏾 Russia then declares that Europe or anyone that wants Russian oil (as 3rd largest global producer) or Russian/Ukrainian wheat (1/4 of worlds production) must pay in gold, or use the ruble-yuan gold backed payment system.
Tjoo! 😰
👉🏾 Their leverage as an oil producer (who cuts off supply) will cause almost immediate price shocks to the western world. A good part of the population could immediately be unable to heat their homes.
Mamamamama! Eh! 😱
👉🏾 Almost equal to the oil shock they’d cause is their ability to cause food shortages and price spikes through the disruption of wheat production.
👉🏾 Unmentioned in all this is China. Who has been silent & not condemned Russia.That means silent approval & cooperation.
Further...
👉🏾 China will act to soak up Russian production of oil and wheat to soften the blow to their “strategic partner”
👉🏾 This will again be through the Yuan-Ruble facility and at some point overtly stated gold backing of that system by Russia and China.
👉🏾 The West will of most certainly declare those last two bullets as acts of global aggression and direct threats to the “world monetary system” for which all known nations have been using these last 70+ years.
👉🏾 At this point the inevitable will happen, a clear fracture of the world’s monetary system into two competing East/West structures, circling back to the initial point that the 50 year global petrodollar system has just officially been ended by Putin.
Eish! 😔
Remember, all this is a musing, and please do your own research, but...
If the above analysis is indeed correct, then the threat to the Petrodollar system is no different to the time of Charles De Gaulle or Gaddafi, but on larger scale.
They can't remove Putin as easy as they did with previous leaders who challenged their fraudulent petrodollar monetary system.
In short, we may just see a true return to the days of the cold war and a fracture once more to that terrible East/West conundrum our forefathers of African independence had to deal with.
Frankly, if I had a choice, I would rather this war ended tomorrow, NATO agree to Russia's demands and we get back to our old eat of doing things for now.
But then, if there is one thing that always can be guaranteed to happen, it's change, and it seems we are on the brink of it!
🤔
(Warning: Long but deeply revealing read on the soon to come monetary system consequences of this war)! ☺️
If you've been reading my posts here in Jamii forum, then you know that I have always had a contrarian view of this Russia Ukraine war since it began.
Yesterday I came across this "statement" from
Phil Seymour - President of the Association of European Leasing Companies.
This is what he had to say about their predicament vis-a-vis the said war and it's imposed "stiff" sanctions and their unintended consequences.
All over the word airlines don't own their own planes, they lease them.
The European Union has imposed sanctions on Russia and obliged European leasing companies to take back all leased aircraft from Russia by March 28th.
That's a total of 520 aircraft!
Now, here are some conundrums this will cause...
#1. Return of 520 aircraft!
How is this to be done? The Russians said if you refuse to lease them to us, get them back yourself! How can we get 520 crews to Russia when the airspace in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine is closed? We can't fly in!
#2. The handover
Once the handover has taken place in Russian airports, the planes will no longer be Russian. But a non-Russian plane is not allowed to fly in Russian airspace – the Russian airspace is blocked! We won't be able to fly out!
#3. Who initiates these lease terminations?
The leasing companies are the initiators of the termination of these leases. In the original calculation of the cost of fines in such a case, we will all be bankrupted at once. It's easier and cheaper to go bankrupt than to take back the planes.
#4. Due payments (how to pay?)
February is over and Russia has to pay the lease payments for the month. Russia is willing to pay but cannot pay because it is excluded from SWIFT. We ourselves have to pay fines because of the terminations, but in view of the lack of incoming payments from Russia we have no money for such payments!
#5. Where do we take the planes?
Even if we take back these planes, what are we going to do with them? We don't need them, nobody wants them and it's impossible to sell them!
#6. Airbus stands to lose out!
The Boeings of American leasing companies are not affected. If Europe takes the planes away from the Russians, the US will supply Russia with its Boeing planes and become the world's No. 1 airline, bankrupting both the European leasing company and Airbus.
Wow! What a dilemma! 😳
Vladimir Putin didn’t just invade the Ukraine on the 24th February, he officially ended the petrodollar system.
How?
Remember, Russians don’t do anything without a plan. They and China have been prepping for this moment for years and are now ready:
Russia has stated NATO expansion into Ukraine was a red line.
👉🏾 They knew their invasion of Ukraine would be inevitable and would have strategized that the US/West’s response would be SWIFT US dollar system exclusions and related sanctions.
👉🏾 It is reasonable to expect that Russia’s next step would have been to shut off oil and gas pipelines to Europe, as Russia has built up huge Yuan, Gold & commodity reserves for themselves to "weather" this storm.
👉🏾 This will cause massive price and supply disruptions (war level) to the western markets and monetary system. (Here in Tanzania and all over Africa the fuel pump price increase is already happening and this war has been blamed)
👉🏾 For years Russia and China have looked for ways to re-monetize gold and exit abuses of the SWIFT system as a geo-political tool against them, but their challenge was how to do it, how to exit, without the West declaring it an act of aggression or war against them?
Well, the ruse has "shown up" and the process is now there.
👉🏾 This Ukraine invasion just accomplished that end for them. And the West is doing it themselves.
👉🏾 Now, freed to declare themselves SWIFT system outcasts by the western govt hands, Russia can now say “we will turn oil pipelines back on, but not for dollars.” 🤔
👉🏾 Russia then declares that Europe or anyone that wants Russian oil (as 3rd largest global producer) or Russian/Ukrainian wheat (1/4 of worlds production) must pay in gold, or use the ruble-yuan gold backed payment system.
Tjoo! 😰
👉🏾 Their leverage as an oil producer (who cuts off supply) will cause almost immediate price shocks to the western world. A good part of the population could immediately be unable to heat their homes.
Mamamamama! Eh! 😱
👉🏾 Almost equal to the oil shock they’d cause is their ability to cause food shortages and price spikes through the disruption of wheat production.
👉🏾 Unmentioned in all this is China. Who has been silent & not condemned Russia.That means silent approval & cooperation.
Further...
👉🏾 China will act to soak up Russian production of oil and wheat to soften the blow to their “strategic partner”
👉🏾 This will again be through the Yuan-Ruble facility and at some point overtly stated gold backing of that system by Russia and China.
👉🏾 The West will of most certainly declare those last two bullets as acts of global aggression and direct threats to the “world monetary system” for which all known nations have been using these last 70+ years.
👉🏾 At this point the inevitable will happen, a clear fracture of the world’s monetary system into two competing East/West structures, circling back to the initial point that the 50 year global petrodollar system has just officially been ended by Putin.
Eish! 😔
Remember, all this is a musing, and please do your own research, but...
If the above analysis is indeed correct, then the threat to the Petrodollar system is no different to the time of Charles De Gaulle or Gaddafi, but on larger scale.
They can't remove Putin as easy as they did with previous leaders who challenged their fraudulent petrodollar monetary system.
In short, we may just see a true return to the days of the cold war and a fracture once more to that terrible East/West conundrum our forefathers of African independence had to deal with.
Frankly, if I had a choice, I would rather this war ended tomorrow, NATO agree to Russia's demands and we get back to our old eat of doing things for now.
But then, if there is one thing that always can be guaranteed to happen, it's change, and it seems we are on the brink of it!
🤔
