Tanzania yatabiriwa machafuko

[kkenzki]

Peace in our time? Scientist makes bold prediction that war is on the wane and will halve over next 40 years University of Oslo research suggests number of countries at war will fall from one in six to one in 12 Higher education, lower infant mortality and lower population growth are reasons why the world can expect a more peaceful future

Current conflicts in Libya, Tajikistan, Syria, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Iraq will probably be over

The risk of conflict will be greatest in India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania

By LEON WATSON
PUBLISHED: 13:58 GMT, 23 November 2012 | UPDATED: 17:10 GMT, 23 November 2012

It may be difficult to believe, but according to research published next month a world without war may be getting nearer.

Futurologists from the University of Oslo in Norway and the Peace Research Institute Oslo have predicted that global conflict will
halve in the next 40 years.

Their study claims the combination of higher education, lower infant mortality, smaller youth cohorts, and lower population growth are a few of the reasons why the world can expect a more peaceful future.

World at war: Soldiers who support Guinea-Bissau's breakaway military leaders known as The Junta fire at a position held by Senegalese soldiers

Conflict zone: Palestinians burn a U.S. flag near the United Nations office in Gaza City earlier this month. The on-going tension in the region will die down by 2050, research suggests Professor Håvard Hegre predicts conflict will be on the wane by 2050.

Here's how the war map will change That will mean in the next five years the current conflicts in Libya, Tajikistan, Syria, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Iraq will probably be over, the research suggests.

As the risk of war decreases worldwide, by 2017 it will be greatest in India, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Uganda and Burma.

And by 2050, as the number of countries at war falls from one in six to one in 12, the risk of conflict will be greatest in India,
Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

Israeli ceasefire under threat after troops shoot dead Palestinian man as shocking images emerge of children celebrating with guns
Analysis of a bomb blast: Investigators search for clues amid the carnage after suicide attack claims four lives at U.S.

Afghanistan base
The conclusions were made by Håvard Hegre, a professor in the university's department of political science, who has devised a statistical model in collaboration with Oslo's Peace Research Institute.

The model, it is claimed, is capable of telling us what is likely to happen in the future.

'The number of conflicts is falling,' said Professor Hegre. 'We expect this fall to continue. We predict a steady fall in the number of conflicts in the next 40 years.

'Conflicts that involve a high degree of violence, such as Syria, are becoming increasingly rare.

'We put a lot of work into developing statistical methods that enable us, with a reasonable degree of certainty, to predict conflicts in the future.

'A conflict is defined as a conflict between governments and political organisations that use violence and in which at least 25 people die. This means that the model does not cover either tribal wars or solo terrorists like Anders Behring Breivik.

'In the 1700s it was normal to go to war to expand your country's territory. This strategy has passed its sell by date. But, demands for democracy may be suppressed with violence and result in more violence in the short term. As in Libya.'

His research has found there has been a decrease in armed conflicts and the number of people killed since World War II and this
trend will continue.

'War has become less acceptable, just like duelling, torture and the death penalty.'

Infant mortality, calculated by the UN up to 2050, is one of the key factors in Professor Hegre's model.

'Countries with a high infant mortality rate have a high probability of conflict. Infant mortality is now decreasing everywhere.'
The UN has also estimated population structure up to 2050. The population is expected to grow, but at a slower pace than
today, and the proportion of young people will decrease in most countries, with the exception of countries in Africa.

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna has extrapolated the level of education up to 2050.

The simulation model is also based on the last 40 years' history of conflicts, of all countries and their neighbours in the
world, oil resources and ethnicity. The conflict data were collated by the Uppsala University

'Economic changes in society have resulted in both education and human capital becoming important. A complex economy makes political violence less attractive.

Kurdish soldiers patrol the mountainous Iraq-Turkey border region where conflict has raged Nigeria is one of the countries where the
risk of war will be greatest in 2050. Here Nigerian soldiers march towards protestors during a demonstration against spiraling fuel prices in Lagos earlier this year

Risk of war: An armed man waves his rifle as buildings and cars are engulfed in flames after being set on fire inside the US consulate compound in Benghazi, Libya, last month

'It has become too expensive to kill people. Modern society is dependent on economic development. It is too expensive to use
violence to destroy this network. It has also become harder to take financial capital by force.

'It is easy to move capital across national borders. Therefore, a cynical leader will be less likely to choose violence as a strategy.'

It is hard to discern the most important reason why the future will be more peaceful, but some studies suggest that education is the crucial factor.

'Education may be a fundamental causal explanation, but this is difficult to show with our methods. Demographers believe that more education leads to fewer children. There are fewer mouths to feed.'

Another explanation is the UN's peacekeeping operations. The world has become better at employing means of preventing states using violence.

'The UN operations in Bosnia and Somalia failed. But the UN's operations have been more successful since 2000. Of course, the UN cannot prevent conflicts, but fewer die and the intensity is lower when they intervene.'

Drawing to an end?
Anti-government fighters celebrate the fall of Sirte in Syria in October last year

Tension continues: An unidentified U.S. soldier stands in front of the blast-shattered Khobar Towers building in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia Prof Hegre used data from 1970 to 2000 to check whether or not the conflict model works as intended. He wanted to see if the model could predict the actual conflicts between 2001 and 2009

'For 2009 we estimated that the likelihood of a conflict was more than 50 per cent in 20 countries. 16 of these countries ended
up in a real conflict. We missed by four countries.'

The simulation programme, which for statistical reasons must be run 18,000 times, was programmed by Joakim Karlsen, a research fellow at Østfold University College.

But changes had to be made as the on-going instability in the Middle East impacted the model.

'Prior to the Arabian spring, we expected 5 per cent of the countries in the world to be involved in a conflict in 2050. This percentage has now risen to 7 per cent.

'The conflicts in the Middle East weaken the clear correlation between socio-economic development and the absence of civil war.
The conflicts in Syria and Libya show that we also have to include democratisation processes in the model.

'To achieve this, we are now working on projecting democratic systems of government and regime changes,' explains Prof Hegre.
The study is due to be published in the periodical International Studies Quarterly next month.

 

[Dr Amri Mabewa]

if you think twice you will see the possibility of war in the mentioned african countries.in nigeria it is obvious north and south, in ethiopia hardly does the ruling side accept democracy.in tanzania i dont expect ccm to leave state house in peacefull environment

 

[gfsonwin]

watanzania hawako na moyo huo wa kuua ndugu zao ili watawale. mtabashiri kwa kutumia mizimu yote ila hayo Mungu hwez kuruhusu

 

[MNYISANZU]

CCM MUST GO even through violence.

 

[MNYISANZU]

watanzania hawako na moyo huo wa kuua ndugu zao ili watawale. mtabashiri kwa kutumia mizimu yote ila hayo Mungu hwez kuruhusu

Kwangu mimi wana CCM sio binadamu bali ni ALIEN MONSTER. Kwa hiyo kuwaua wana CCM ni jambo la heri kwa sababu itakuwa ni sehemu ya ukombozi wa mnyonge.

 

[gfsonwin]

Kwangu mimi wana CCM sio binadamu bali ni ALIEN MONSTER. Kwa hiyo kuwaua wana CCM ni jambo la heri kwa sababu itakuwa ni sehemu ya ukombozi wa mnyonge.

bahati mbaya sana wanaccm wengine ni wanyonge kuliko unavofikiri na mauti yao haiwez kuleta neema kwenye nchi kama congo hadi leo wanapigana ama rwanda unategemea nini??

fikiria njia nzuri zaid kuliko njia iletayo madhara kwa wengine.

 

[Kongosho]

hata Shehe Yahya alijiinua kwa kutabiri, but where, wata-perish kama watabiri wa awali na Tz itasonga

 

[Shomari]

wapumbavu tu ndio wanaopika maneno kama haya, hawatutakii mema hao!

 

[Leak]

Hakuna kitu kama hicho huu ni utabiri fake! That will not happen!

 

[kichomiz]

Shenzi sana.

 

[Lukolo]

Hakuna kitu hapo, hadi 2050 hatuwezi kuwa na sera hizo hizo za CCM ambazo zinachochea machafuko. Kama wangekadiria 2017 kama walivyoikadiria Uganda na nyinginezo ningeogopa, lakini kama ni hiyo 2050, basi Tanzania haimo katika hiyo orodha ya nchi za kuingia vitani.

Tutakuwa tayari tuna mabadiliko mengi sana ya kisera na kiutawala by then. Hata kama CCM itakuwa bado ipo madarakani, bado itakuwa imebadilika sana kiutawala. You can imagine kama hivi sasa tu inatekeleza sera za CHADEMA, ina maana kadri miaka inavyokwenda tutakuwa na utendaji uliotukuka kutoka vyama vyote.

 

[kkenzki]

Ata naamini ni mtazamo wa mtu tu kwani bdo cjaona ki2 cha kunish2ka mpaka ikanipelekea kuamini ivo ila lately aya maswala ya kuingilia conflicts za majirani izi zitztupereka pabaya

 

[zenmoster]

conflicts will only arise if ccm dont accept defeat...for peace to be in place ccm must accept defeat in the 2015 national elections

 

[JERUSALEMU]

mkisha kuwa na gass na mafuta basi tegemea wachonganishi kutoka hukohuko majuu watatugombanisha ili wao wafaidi rasilimali yetu hiyo kiulaini. angalia KONGO DRC, SUDAN, NIGERIA, UARABUNI hali ndio hiyohiyo.sasa unategemea nini kama hata uzalishaji haujaanza tayari watu wamejilimbikizia mabilioni huko USWISS fedha za mafuta unadhani tutaendelea kuwa wajinga tuwatazame tuu wakitanua na mali yetu wote! haiwezekani.na ndio maana wanao ona mbali wanategemea hilo litokee.

 

[Zamaulid]

watanzania hawako na moyo huo wa kuua ndugu zao ili watawale. mtabashiri kwa kutumia mizimu yote ila hayo Mungu hwez kuruhusu

afadhari wewe inaonekana umeisoma,ilikuwa inasemaje!!!!

 

[vutakamba]

Watanzania tuna tatizo kubwa la kudanganywa na watawala kwa maslahi yao kuwa Tanzania ni kisiwa cha amani, huku watawala wakikiuka misingi ya amani kwa kutokuwa na usawa ktk matumizi na mgawanyo wa raslimali za nchi.

Tujue kuwa hatuko ktk kisiwa cha peke yetu ila tuko ktk dunia hii hii na yale yanayotokea ktk nchi zingine tujue kuna siku pia yatatokea hapa kwetu. Kwani hakuna zawadi ya pekee tuliyompa mwenyezi Mungu yasitokee.

Katika nchi za kiafrika tatizo kubwa ni kuwa utawala unakuwa chini ya mfumo mmoja kwa miaka mingi kama ilivyo nchi yetu na watawala wanakuwa wameshaweka imani na misingi ya kuwafanya waendelee kuwepo madarakani kulinda maslahi na maovu yao ambayo wanakuwa tayari wameyafanya ktk kipindi chote hicho. Wanakuwa wamejenga hofu mioyoni mwao kuwa utawala mwingine ukiingia ambao uko nje ya mfumo wao watapelekwa mbele ya sheria.

Hofu hii ndiyo inayofanya watawala waweke resistance hata kama wamekataliwa na wananchi, kwa kutumia vyombo vya dola ambavyo wanaamini ni mali yao. ku terolize na ku suppress wananchi ili waendelee kutawala. Matokeo yake ni vita kwa kuwa kipindi cha mabadiliko kinakuwa tayari kimeshafika. Na hakuna dola iliyowahi shinda nguvu ya umma.

Tuliona yaliyotokea Kenya ni kwa sababu wakikuyu ambao ni matajiri wengi waliopata utajiri wao kwa ufisadi wa raslimali za nchi, walimwambia Kibaki usikubali Raila aingie Ikulu maana angewapeleka kwenye mkondo wa sheria. Kibaki alichakachua matokeo ya kura na haraka haraka akatangazwa mshindi na kutawazwa haraka. Matokeo yake ilikuwa ni vita.

Hivyo Tanzania tusijione tuko salama kwa kuwa watawala wetu chini ya CCM ambayo imekuwa madarakani kwa muda mrefu tayari wana hofu, na hofu hiyo ndiyo itakayo tuletea machafuko ktk nchi. Hebu tujiulize ni lini CCM itakubali kuwa imeshindwa kihalali?. Si rahisi kama unavyofikiri. Vinginevyo isingekuwa inahangaika kuchakachua kura kwa kuficha karatasi za kura kwenye maboksi ya biskiti, thermos, hot pot na kuwatumia polisi na usalama wa Taifa.

 

[Fanto]

Washindwe na walegee.Kwa kuwa tahadhari imetolewa ni jukumu la Watanzania wenyewe ambao ni sisi kuwa makini zaidi ili hali hii isitokee. Zipo dalili chache zinazoashiria uvunjifu wa amani. Ni jukumu letu kama nchi kuzikemea na kuzikataa kwa nguvu zetu zote kama taifa. Moja ya kiashiria kikubwa cha uvunjifu wa amani yetu ni wanasiasa waliofilisika sera na kukimbilia kuwagawa wananchi katika misingi ya dini, ukabila, itikadi za kisiasa na hata maeneo wanayotoka. Hawa ni wa kuwakataa kupitia masanduku ya kura. Mungu ibariki Tanzania.

 

[Mvuni]

watanzania hawako na moyo huo wa kuua ndugu zao ili watawale. mtabashiri kwa kutumia mizimu yote ila hayo Mungu hwez kuruhusu

Wewe unaishi nchi gani? hata ukiwa marekani ni lazima utakuwa unajuwa yanayojiri TZ. Kwaani MWANGOSI aliuawa kwa ajili gani? yaliyo tokea ARUSHA umesahau? Je, ya kule ZANZIBAR wakati wa utawala wa awamu ya tatu, nayo pia umesahau? ndugu, mauaji ni mauaji bila kujali idadi ya watu walio uwawa... walioko madarakani sasa wako tayari kuuwa bila shaka yeyote...

 

[Kiby]

Tanzania police alikuwa akipiga risasi ya moto anaandika maelezo ya jinsi ilivyomlazimu kutumia hiyo silaha ya moto. Leo hii kila kukicha ni police kuwapiga risas watu na anayefanya hivyo hupandishwa cheo. Kwa dalili hizi unafikiri tunaelekea wapi? Kuna watu wanaoota kuwa Tz ni nchi ya kipekee sana wanayoishi malaika na kwamba watu wa nchi za machafuko hawakuumbwa kama wa-Tz, tusijidanganye hivyo hata kidogo. Tabaka linalojengwa sasa la mabwana na watwana halitawaache mvuke salama.
.

 

[Lunyungu]

Wewe unaishi nchi gani? hata ukiwa marekani ni lazima utakuwa unajuwa yanayojiri TZ. Kwaani MWANGOSI aliuawa kwa ajili gani? yaliyo tokea ARUSHA umesahau? Je, ya kule ZANZIBAR wakati wa utawala wa awamu ya tatu, nayo pia umesahau? ndugu, mauaji ni mauaji bila kujali idadi ya watu walio uwawa... walioko madarakani sasa wako tayari kuuwa bila shaka yeyote...

Tanzania mauaji kila siku ne nenda North Mara ujionee mauaji na manyanyaso na hata Jana au juzi wamejua watu huko Mbezi