Presidential Commission Report on Land Issues in Ngorongoro District

[Makumbele]

Date of Presentation: March 12, 2026

Executive Summary​

This report outlines the findings and recommendations of the Presidential Commission tasked with assessing ongoing land disputes and conservation challenges in the Ngorongoro District. The assessment focused on three primary protected areas: the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), the Pololeti Game Reserve, and the Lake Natron Game Controlled Area.

While the region has seen significant conservation success and booming tourism revenues (reaching 223 billion TZS by March 2025), severe challenges threaten the sustainability of its multiple land-use model, primarily driven by explosive population growth, human-wildlife conflict, and shrinking resources.

Key Findings by Area​

A. Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA)​

The NCA is a critical part of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, but its multiple land-use model is under severe strain due to the following factors:

• Population Boom: The human population has surged from roughly 8,000 in 1959 to 100,793 in 2022, with projections reaching 276,651 by 2050.
• Livestock and Settlement Expansion: By 2025, settlements reached 17,734. Livestock numbers grew from 261,723 in 1960 to over 715,000 in 2022.
• Grazing Land Deficit: In 2022, livestock required 56.4% of the total land area. By 2050, demand is projected to exceed the available land by more than 104%, making the current model unsustainable.
• Economic Decline: The per capita "Tropical Livestock Unit" is dropping, heavily impacting the pastoralist economy. It is projected to fall to 1.5 per person by 2050 (well below the minimum subsistence level of 8 cattle per person).
• Human-Wildlife Conflict & Ecological Threats: Some wildlife species (such as the roan antelope and giraffe) are declining. Conflicts have resulted in 77 human deaths between 2015 and 2025. Additionally, diseases such as anthrax and climate-induced invasive plant species are on the rise.

B. Pololeti Game Reserve​

Carved out of the former Loliondo Game Controlled Area in 2022 (1,502 sq km reserved, while 2,500 sq km was allocated to citizens). Key issues include:

• Citizen complaints regarding a lack of inclusion in the decision to upgrade the reserve's status, with demands to return the land for mixed use.
• Legal and administrative friction over the transfer of management from the Tanzania Wildlife Management Authority (TAWA) to the Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority (NCAA).
• Ongoing conflicts between wildlife and livestock in citizen-designated areas.

C. Lake Natron Game Controlled Area​

Spanning Ngorongoro, Monduli, and Longido districts.

• Citizens fear they will lose their land if the government upgrades the area to a Game Reserve.
• The area contains heavy infrastructure and relocated settlements (such as Jema Village, moved there in 2006 to decongest Ngorongoro).

D. Other Systemic Issues​

• Traditional Governance: Decisions made by local traditional leaders (e.g., the Maasai Malaigwanan) sometimes conflict with formal government regulations.
• NGO Interference: Certain Non-Governmental Organizations are noted to be at odds with the government, allegedly spreading propaganda against sustainable conservation efforts.

The Commission's Recommendations​

To ensure both sustainable conservation and improved livelihoods for the citizens, the Commission recommends the following:

1. Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA):

• Legal Review: Revise the Ngorongoro Conservation Area Act (Cap 284).
• Zoning: Non-conservation activities should be moved outside the NCA.
• Identification: Officially recognize residents and issue them certificates of residence to curb illegal invasions.
• Migration Framework: Establish a legal basis for sustainable migration.
• Invasive Species Control: Increase funding to execute the National Strategy for the Control of Invasive Species.

2. Pololeti Game Reserve:

• Citizen Support: Improve extension services, markets, and grazing conditions in the 2,500 sq km allocated to citizens.
• Management Reversal: Transfer management back to TAWA from the NCAA.
• Livestock Tracking: Brand all livestock within one year.
• Infrastructure: Construct a 223km tarmac road from Mto wa Mbu to Wasso to stimulate the local economy.

3. Lake Natron Game Controlled Area:

• Reassessment: Evaluate whether upgrading the area to a Game Reserve is still necessary.
• Policy Review: Review Government Notice No. 597 to remove grazing lands from conservation boundaries.

4. Management and Institutions:

• Traditional Leader Education: Educate traditional leaders to uphold customs without violating land and conservation laws.
• NGO Oversight: Evaluate NGOs operating in the area and take action against those that violate their registration requirements.
• Implementation Tracking: The Prime Minister's Office should oversee, coordinate, and evaluate the implementation of these recommendations.