Poll: Most Americans think Obama will win

[MaxShimba]

Who better understands American families, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Who would you rather lead us into war? Who’s a bigger liar? Are voters suspicious of Mormonism? And which candidate would win in a fistfight?

Yahoo! News and Esquire teamed up to commission pollster Gary Langer of Langer Research Associates to survey more than a thousand Americans about those topics (and many more) in the days following the political conventions. We asked questions most pollsters don’t—on religion, race, personal values, class, and personality—as well as the usual ones about voter preference. We will report our findings over the next few weeks, and the complete survey will be available on Yahoo! News, in the November issue of Esquire, and on Esquire.com's The Politics Blog.

This week, we begin with the basics:

Obama is up by 4 among likely voters.​

When we cross-tabulate those results with demographic information, we see familiar divides.

Those in the highest income brackets favor Romney.
The numbers change, though, when we ask all Americans to predict who they think is going to win:

57 percent would bet on Obama to win.​

Or, in a scenario straight from Ann Coulter’s imagination:

Obama would easily win a fistfight.
Click here for the full results of these survey questions, and check back next week for the latest findings.

METHODOLOGY

This Esquire/Yahoo! News Poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 7-10, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full sample, 4.5 points for registered voters and 5 points for likely voters. The survey was produced for Esquire/Yahoo! News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Interviewing Service of America of Van Nuys, CA

 

[MaxShimba]

Mittenites are flabbergasted, that side of Myth there is fear of imbecile

 

[The Boss]

Where is Nyaningabu?

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Where is Nyaningabu?

When is the election again?

 

[The Boss]

When is the election again?

U wanna bet?

50 us dollar

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

U wanna bet?

50 us dollar

I'm not a betting man and no betting man bet on Holyfield to whoop Tyson's ass either.

So just continue to get an orgasm based on fake opinion polls.

The only poll that counts is on Nov. 6.

 

[Yegomasika]

I'm not a betting man and no betting man bet on Holyfield to whoop Tyson's ass either.

So just continue to get an orgasm on fake opinion polls.

The only poll that counts is on Nov. 6.

Phwee!. Now you are talking!.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Phwee!. Now you are talking!.

I'm a realist.

I'm not gonna gloat or get depressed based on some opinion poll that I'm not even sure whether it actually happened or not.

Think about it, what proof is there to show they actually interviewed people?

Have you ever been polled by anybody? I haven't.

So, so much for these opinion polls. To me they aren't worth a hill of beans.

 

[Cynic]

METHODOLOGY

The survey was produced for Esquire/Yahoo! News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Interviewing Service of America of Van Nuys, CA

Hizi "checks and balances" zinahakikisha trustworthyness ya hizi surveys... Bongo tumezoea ''The survey was produced for REDET by REDET, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by REDET'', halafu wanatumia matokeo ya kuandaa mazingira ya kuiba kura.

 

[The Boss]

I'm a realist.

I'm not gonna gloat or get depressed based on some opinion poll that I'm not even sure whether it actually happened or not.

Think about it, what proof is there to show they actually interviewed people?

Have you ever been polled by anybody? I haven't.

So, so much for these opinion polls. To me they aren't worth a hill of beans.

Taasisi zinzo deal na polls
kama Gallup kwa mfano ni taasisi trustworthy
ziko kwenye hii kitu for years
na kila election zina aaminika sababu result ikitoka hazitofautiani sana

zina credibility

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Taasisi zinzo deal na polls
kama Gallup kwa mfano ni taasisi trustworthy
ziko kwenye hii kitu for years
na kila election zina aaminika sababu result ikitoka hazitofautiani sana

zina credibility

Kuna mengi sana yanakupita wewe. Hebu soma hii....

A story concerning the possible abuse of power by the White House or Obama campaign that was initially dismissed by liberal blogs appears to be proving otherwise. According to internal e-mails, obtained by the Daily Caller'sMatt Boyle, sent between senior Gallup Organization executives, senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod attempted to intimidate the well known polling firm, when numbers for President Obama were not particularly ideal.

When news broke that the Justice Department was filing a lawsuit against Gallup for overcharging their clients, there was suspicion that either the White House or the Obama campaign may have applied pressure to Gallup because of President Obama's less than great polling numbers from the organization.
According to the Daily Caller: (bolding is mine)

In April, Axelrod tweeted that a poll showing Mitt Romney with a 48-43 percent lead over Obama was "saddled with some methodological problems," directing his Twitter followers to read a National Journal story criticizing Gallup polls showing a Romney lead.
In that National Journal piece, Ron Brownstein wrote that the polls showing Romney leading the president had "a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012."
Internally, Gallup officials discussed via email how to respond Axelrod's accusations. One suggested that it "seems like a pretty good time for a blog response," and named a potential writer.
In response to that suggestion, another senior Gallup official wrote - in an email chain titled "Axelrod vs. Gallup" - that the White House "has asked" a senior Gallup staffer "to come over and explain our methodology too."
That Gallup official, the email continued, "has a plan that includes blogging and telling WH [the White House] he would love to have them come over here etc. This could be a very good moment for us to [show] our super rigorous methods compared to weak samples etc. …"
The writer named several news organizations with their own polling methodologies, all of which resulted in numbers more favorable to President Obama at the time.
In response to that email, a third senior Gallup official said he thought Axelrod's pressure "sounds a little like a Godfather situation."
"Imagine Axel[rod] with Brando's voice: '[Name redacted], I'd like you to come over and explain your methodology…You got a nice poll there….would be a shame if anything happened to it…'"
In a second email chain titled "slanderous link about Gallup methodology," another senior Gallup official noted that a Washington Examiner story on Axelrod's anti-Gallup tweet was "on [the] Drudge [Report] right now," before writing that the episode was "o politically motivated, it's laughable."
"As they say in b-ball: he's trying to work the refs," that official wrote to other senior Gallup staffers. "What a joke. Axel's had a bad week. He got in the middle of the Ann Romney thing. Then said the country is going in the wrong direction. (Oops!) Now he's swinging at us…."
​

I spoke with former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, now an Obama campaign sr. adviser, about whether the campaign interacted with the Gallup Organization regarding the polling company's methodology.
"I was the press secretary for two years. I know it was really smart not to get involved in discussing things around the justice department that I have no knowledge about," said Gibbs. "I have no knowledge of any discussions of anybody on the campaign side with Gallup," he went on to say later.

 

[Cynic]

Kuna mengi sana yanakupita wewe. Hebu soma hii....

Kweli. Nakumbuka kwenye mkesha wa uchaguzi mwaka ule Fox News walitoa survey yao inayoonyesha McCain yuko mbele kwa pts 6 wakati Gallup, Real Clear, etc. wakionyesha yuko nyuma kwa mbali. Organizations zinafuata methodologies tofauti tofauti (na ku'question' integrity ya methodology siyo kitu kigeni). Kwa uhakika zaidi ni vema kufuatilia polls ya organizations kadhaa au ''polls of polls'' .

 

[Kiranga]

I represent the rent is too damn high party.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Kweli. Nakumbuka kwenye mkesha wa uchaguzi mwaka ule Fox News walitoa survey yao inayoonyesha McCain yuko mbele kwa pts 6 wakati Gallup, Real Clear, etc. wakionyesha yuko nyuma kwa mbali. Organizations zinafuata methodologies tofauti tofauti (na ku'question' integrity ya methodology siyo kitu kigeni). Kwa uhakika zaidi ni vema kufuatilia polls ya organizations kadhaa au ''polls of polls'' .

Hapana. Kwa uhakika zaidi ni vema kusubiri polls za Nov. 6 ambazo ndizo za ukweli.

 

[Cynic]

Hapana. Kwa uhakika zaidi ni vema kusubiri polls za Nov. 6 ambazo ndizo za ukweli.

Sawa Nyani, lakini hapa si tulikuwa tunazungumzia 'opinion' polls (ili kujiandaa kwa polls za Nov. 6)?

 

[MNYISANZU]

I doubt or question the credibility of this organization!

 

[Mkereketwa_Huyu]

Samahani, hapa najiuliza bila kupata jibu. Not that I'm trying to be controversial, lahasha. Hivi, uchaguzi wa Marekani sisi watanzania unatuhusu nini? Haya mambo waachiwe wenyewe wapiga kura wa Marekani, wao ndiyo wanajuwa nani anawafaa. Sie twasubiri kifo cha CCM kunako 2015, Amen!

 

[Pakawa]

I'm not a betting man and no betting man bet on Holyfield to whoop Tyson's ass either.

So just continue to get an orgasm based on fake opinion polls.

The only poll that counts is on Nov. 6.

Jasusi Jasusi mkuu... usiukatae ukweli..Mimi na wewe tunaelewa Obama kama binadamu yeyote ana mapungufu lakini naamini yeye ni bora kuliko Mitt... Mitt most of the time hajui hata upepo wake unaelekea wapi? Anajaribu kuiga mambo mengi ambayo Obama Administration inafanya. Mimi nipo 110% sure Obama atashinda hata iweje.. Wamarekani sio wajinga... Uchumi sio kila kitu kwa America kuna mambo mengi yapo ambayo ukiangalia kwa undani Obama Administration wamejitahidi.. OBAMA ANAPIGA VITA MAPEBARI NUKTA.

 

[Bongolander]

Samahani, hapa najiuliza bila kupata jibu. Not that I'm trying to be controversial, lahasha. Hivi, uchaguzi wa Marekani sisi watanzania unatuhusu nini? Haya mambo waachiwe wenyewe wapiga kura wa Marekani, wao ndiyo wanajuwa nani anawafaa. Sie twasubiri kifo cha CCM kunako 2015, Amen!

Kuna watu hapa JF ni wamarekani kuliko wamarekani wenyewe, na wanaongea na 'authority' kama wao ndio wanaijua Marekani ndani nje. Kuna wengine wanafuatilia tu habari za uchaguzi kama wanavyofuatilia habari nyingine.

 

[MaxShimba]

Fox News poll: Obama leads Romney by 9


A new Fox News surveygives President Obama a 49%-40% lead over his Republican challenger, amid signs that Romney's favorable ratings are falling; last month, the same poll gave Obama only a 45%-41% lead.

The Fox poll emerged right after CNN announced a 52%-45% lead for Obama in its latest survey.




CAPTION

AP photos​