...Mchambuzi, naomba urudie kusoma ulichokiandika, kama vile kaandika mtu mwingine. Utagundua kuwa, majibu yako kwenye hizo para mbili. Soma -between the lines- ya ulichokiandika.Ulikuwa na bado upo sahihi; cha kushangaza ni kwamba Ndullu ni mmoja wa wachumi wa hali ya juu kabisa kimataifa na ameandika mambo mazuri mengi sana miaka ya nyuma covering uchumi chini ya Nyerere hadi Mkapa lakini hatuoni akiyatekeleza kwa vitendo; Lipumba ambae ni mwenzake as World Class Economists toka IV League nae anasema mengi sana sasahivi on the root cause of the problem and how we can get out of it; Kinachoonekana ni kwamba walimu ni wazuri kwa maneno yao, sio matendo yao. Kuhusu washauri wa Rais katika masuala ya uchumi, ni dhahiri amezungukwa na wataalamu wengi sana, tatizo labda wanamwogopa na wanajitahidi kumweleza yale tu ambayo wanadhani atapenda kuyasikia wakati ukweli ni kwamba JK ni msikilizaji mzuri. Kama mnavyokumbuka enzi za iddi amin - true story - alitembelea siku moja Central Bank of Uganda ghafla after uchumi kuanza kuporomoka na kukutana na gavana, wakiwa kwenye corridor akauliza "Mr Gavana, tatizo ni nini"? Gavana akajibu, 'it is inflation your excellency', Amin akasimama na kuhamaki na kumwangalia usoni , "the problem is inflation?????, who is this inflation individual?" Gavana kuona hali ngumu na kwamba ni tatizo kumkosoa Rais, akamwonyeshea afisa mmoja aliekuwa karibu yao na kusema 'that's him sir'; iddi Amin akatoa amri - "Give him V.I.P treatment right away' meaning auliwe, walinzi wakatekeleza hayo.
...Majibu yamo kwenye hizi paragraph mbili.Ulikuwa na bado upo sahihi; cha kushangaza ni kwamba Ndullu ni mmoja wa wachumi wa hali ya juu kabisa kimataifa na ameandika mambo mazuri mengi sana miaka ya nyuma covering uchumi chini ya Nyerere hadi Mkapa lakini hatuoni akiyatekeleza kwa vitendo; Lipumba ambae ni mwenzake as World Class Economists toka IV League nae anasema mengi sana sasahivi on the root cause of the problem and how we can get out of it; Kinachoonekana ni kwamba walimu ni wazuri kwa maneno yao, sio matendo yao. Kuhusu washauri wa Rais katika masuala ya uchumi, ni dhahiri amezungukwa na wataalamu wengi sana, tatizo labda wanamwogopa na wanajitahidi kumweleza yale tu ambayo wanadhani atapenda kuyasikia wakati ukweli ni kwamba JK ni msikilizaji mzuri. Kama mnavyokumbuka enzi za iddi amin - true story - alitembelea siku moja Central Bank of Uganda ghafla after uchumi kuanza kuporomoka na kukutana na gavana, wakiwa kwenye corridor akauliza "Mr Gavana, tatizo ni nini"? Gavana akajibu, 'it is inflation your excellency', Amin akasimama na kuhamaki na kumwangalia usoni , "the problem is inflation?????, who is this inflation individual?" Gavana kuona hali ngumu na kwamba ni tatizo kumkosoa Rais, akamwonyeshea afisa mmoja aliekuwa karibu yao na kusema 'that's him sir'; iddi Amin akatoa amri - "Give him V.I.P treatment right away' meaning auliwe, walinzi wakatekeleza hayo.
...Ninavyoona, inflation hii inachochewa na mahitaji makubwa ya chakula; nchi jirani kama Kenya, Zambia, Malawi, n.k zimekuwa soko kubwa la nafaka yetu. Kukosekana kwa umeme mara kwa mara kumepelekea gharama za uzalishaji kupanda; kwakuwa mafuta yanatumika zaidi. Utegemezi wa manunuzi mengi toka nje, yenye kutumia dollar, huku shilingi ikishuka thamani kumechangia; bei za vitu vingi vitokavyo nje zimepanda.
...Ningependa kufahamu, Mkapa alikuwa anashauriwa na kina nani. Watanzania, au Wamarekani na Waingereza?
Sijakuelewa Dar si Lamu....
umedesa mada mahala hukiilewa unaleta hapa kutupa usumbufu
I am interested to know who are economic advisers of our President kwasababu watakuwa wanaishi labda nchi tofauti na hii tunayoishi. Nauliza hivi kwasababu economic advisers wa rais ndio wana sauti ya mwisho kwa rais na wao ndio wanatoa independent view ya ishu muhimu ambazo rais anapelekewa na waziri na gavana wake. Vile vile wao ndio wanatengeneza mbadala wa mapendekezo ya waziri au gavana wakiona ni bomu. Hivyo tujiulize washauri wa rais akina nani tutapata kujua tatizo liko wapi.
Ondokana na akili yako mbovu, mwenzio amekaa na akafanya uchambuzi wa maana na wenye akili wamemuelewa!! Uchambuzi wako MCHAMBUZI ni wa kitaalam na unawatia aibu NDULLU na MKULLO pamoja na vikaragosi vyao hapo BOT na Hazina[Mipango] ikiwaonesha kuwa hatua wanazochukua haziwezi kuwa suluhisho la kudumu la kuthibiti mfumuko wa bei na kuwa hatua walizochukua haziwasaidii wananchi waliowengi kuwapunguzia wamakali ya maisha kwani the majority of the population still survive in the non-monetized economy. Ningekushauri mchambuzi, upeleke uchambuzi wako ili ukachapishwe kwenye gazeti kama vile RAIA MWEMA au Mwananchi kama wanaweza ili wananchi wengi wapate kufaidika na uchambuzi huu. Humu janvini ni sisi wachache wenye umeme ndio tunapata fursa ya kusoma na hata hivyo siku nyingine umeme unakatika. Jitahidi uchapishe kwenye gazeti I am sure wabunge watafurahia uchambuzi wako!! Ingawaje natofautiana na wewe na hao watu unaowapendekeza kwa nafasi hizo za kumshauri Rais; unajua kuwa Lipumba alikuwa mshauri wa uchumi wa rais Mwinyi? Kuna wachumi wengi wazuri usiowafahamu ambao ni zaidi ya huyo Ndullu na Lipumba, je umewahi kumsikia mchumi anaitwa Delphine Rwegasira; huyu Kikwete anamfahamu kwani alikuwa mwalimu wao yeye na Kigoda lakini anaogopa kumtumia kwani hayumbiswi sio kama Ndullu!!!
Daima tumezoea kushambulia kwenye matokeo na si sababu, kwa mara hii tena ngoja niwaambie kuwa katika watu walio safi kwenye uendeshaji wa wizara zao ni mkullo na msaidizi wake ndullu.
yote tunayoongea kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu na pia mfumuko wa bei unasababishwa na vitu vingi lakini kikubwa si tatizo katika wizara ya fedha bali tatizo liko kwenye uzalishaji wa bidhaa na uwiano wa biashara
Naweka wazi kuwa watu mnaomshambulia ndullu au mkullo kwenye jambo la kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu bila ya kushambulia kuzorota kwa viwaza ya viwanda inayosababisha tatizo kubwa kwenye uchumi wetu hamumtendei haki na nasita kusema mna chuki binafsi
Tatizo letu tanzania hatuna viwanda vya kutosha kuzalisha bidha kwa matumizi ya ndani na mauzo ya nje hili ni tatizo linalosababisha kuyumba kwa uchumi wetu lakini wengi badala ya kushambulia wizara ya viwanda wanashambulia wizara ya fedha, je mna chuki binafsi au tatizo lenu liko wapi?
Daima tumezoea kushambulia kwenye matokeo na si sababu, kwa mara hii tena ngoja niwaambie kuwa katika watu walio safi kwenye uendeshaji wa wizara zao ni mkullo na msaidizi wake ndullu.
yote tunayoongea kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu na pia mfumuko wa bei unasababishwa na vitu vingi lakini kikubwa si tatizo katika wizara ya fedha bali tatizo liko kwenye uzalishaji wa bidhaa na uwiano wa biashara
Naweka wazi kuwa watu mnaomshambulia ndullu au mkullo kwenye jambo la kudondoka kwa uchumi wetu bila ya kushambulia kuzorota kwa viwaza ya viwanda inayosababisha tatizo kubwa kwenye uchumi wetu hamumtendei haki na nasita kusema mna chuki binafsi
Tatizo letu tanzania hatuna viwanda vya kutosha kuzalisha bidha kwa matumizi ya ndani na mauzo ya nje hili ni tatizo linalosababisha kuyumba kwa uchumi wetu lakini wengi badala ya kushambulia wizara ya viwanda wanashambulia wizara ya fedha, je mna chuki binafsi au tatizo lenu liko wapi?
Kama ulishakutana na Mkullo na ukampa ushauri BAK na Contena wakiwa mashahidi basi wewe lazima uko karibu na jikoni na huwezi kupata taabu kuwajua washauri wa uchumi wa Rais. Tatizo la mkweree ni kwamba anaogopa washauri wenye msimamo watamwambia kweli kuwa yeye ni part of the problem especially kwenye expenditure front hivyo ndio maana anawashauri vijana wadogo wanaomuogopa!! Mdondoaji, tatizo la revenue side of the equation sio size ya tax-base, kwasababu the monetized part of our economy is very small, in order to enhance what is being collected by TRA we should enhance methods to curb tax-avoidance which is rampant in the country!!
Mdondoaji, ni kweli kwamba nishati na mafuta vinachangia. Suala la nishati limeshazungumzwa sana na tatizo lake ni kwamba kwanza - ni tabia yetu CCM kujaribu kukwepa kumruhusu waziri fulani aibuke kuwa a hero na mradi fulani kwani itamtengenezea njia ya Urais, ndio maana miaka yote, mawaziri wote ambao system iliyopo haimtaki awe next president wanapewa wizara za kawaida sana - kwahiyo siasa zinatangulizwa kuliko maslahi ya taifa; pia katika miradi migongano ya kisera (mawaziri) na kiutendaji (makatibu wakuu) huwa wanagongana sana na mwisho wake miradi mingi kuwa shelved; vile vile mawaziri wengi wanapenda kuchangamkia miradi ya upesi upesi kwani hiyo inawapatia ten percent mapema wakiwa bado kwenye nyadhifa zao kuliko kusubiri miradi yenye milolongo mirefu, na matokeo yake ni Richmond, IPTL n.k.
Pia kuna taarifa kwamba kwa miaka mingi sana WorldBank iliamua at any cost to discourage development of any major project za umeme zilizokuwa cheaper than Gas before songosongo's project starts to pay back kwani IFC wana hela zao mle, ndio maana miradi mikubwa mikubwa kama Mchuchuma imakuwa inapigwa danadana; viongozi wetu wakiamua shinika wanaweza geuza hili but wengi they dont because ya mambo ambayo baadhi yake nimeyaelezea hapo tu; pale tu songo songo itakapoanza kuwarudishia IFC fedha zao ndipo tutaanza kuona miradi mikubwa ya umeme ikipewa ukipa umbele;
Kuhusu monetary policy and credit squeeze, hivi ni sekta gani zinapata the largest chunk of credit Tanzania? Ni mbili tu - construction and trade by very far; manufacturing na SMEs zipo way down the bottom;
Kuhusu kushauri gavana aachie inflation iendelee, this is problematic kwani it would eat up earnings za all factors of production namely wages, rent, interest, profits especially if margins zake zipo below the rate of inflation; pia malipo kama pension kwa wazee wetu wastaafu purchasing power yake would erode kwani hiz ni fixed amount for the rest of your life; nadhani point yako ni kwamba suala sio to arrest inflation bali to match it with the availability of goods in the circulation and thats where masuala ya umeme na uzalishaji yanakuja; but all in all, inflation rate that is above rewards of other factors of production, capital in particular is problematic; a desirable rate is that of single digits, and the lower the better;
Hakuna mtu anaeshambuliwa binafsi hapa, ila nafasi zao na kama umesoma vizuri maana ya uchumi uchwara, maana yake tuna uchumi worthless to the majority of Tanzanians na wanayoyafanya Mkullo na Ndullo in that context ni useless to the 70% of Tanzanians. Sasa kama suala ni viwanda na uzalishaji, what role do they play on that front kuelekeza uchumi huko? do you know the powers Mkullo has as the minister wa finance? Yeye ndie anasema wizara ya viwanda mwaka huu ipate 50% of the budget as long as he justifies it, na anaweza hata kushauri (mfano tu) iundwe wizara ya vichochoro ili kushughulikia tatizo la mbu kwenye nyasi...whatever it takes kusaidia uchumi wa nchi yetu; Pia ni vizuri tukaangalai records za Mkullo alipokuwa PPF ili tujue uwezo wake kamili kuongoza wizara kama ya fedha; vinginevyo kama nilivyosema hapo awali Ndullu ni mchumi mzuri, sijui kama he makes the best governor out of watanzania wengine, na sijui kama ufanisi wake mdogo ni kutokana na political interference, i dont know, but he is not doing the right thing at the moment;
Tunachoangalia hapa ni watu waliopewa dhamana ya kusimamia raslimali zetu, kama wanalega lega lazima wasemwe - sera zao sio pro - poor, na hivyo kupelekea uchumi wao kuwa uchwara, hakuna chuki binafsi katika hilo, it is obvious watabakia nafasi zao for the next 4 years, wajitahidi kupunguza uchwara wa uchumi;
Kama ulishakutana na Mkullo na ukampa ushauri BAK na Contena wakiwa mashahidi basi wewe lazima uko karibu na jikoni na huwezi kupata taabu kuwajua washauri wa uchumi wa Rais. Tatizo la mkweree ni kwamba anaogopa washauri wenye msimamo watamwambia kweli kuwa yeye ni part of the problem especially kwenye expenditure front hivyo ndio maana anawashauri vijana wadogo wanaomuogopa!! Mdondoaji, tatizo la revenue side of the equation sio size ya tax-base, kwasababu the monetized part of our economy is very small, in order to enhance what is being collected by TRA we should enhance methods to curb tax-avoidance which is rampant in the country!!
Mchambuzi,
Mkulo hakuwapo PPF bali alikuwapo NPF ambayo ilirun into bankruptcy kwa ufisadi hadi Mkapa alipokuja kuikoa kwa kuifuta na Mkapa kuisuka upya na kuwa NSSF.
Thanks for the input Mdondoaji. Wow, NPF went bankrupt chini ya Mkullo? How can such a fund go bankrupt? Na kama ni kweli, is that person fit to run our economy? does it explain why we are going bankrupt now? it is just a few questions that makes me wonder.
...Haswaaa. Na nimesoma huko chini, ushaweka wazi zaidi.Dar Si Lamu, nadhani nimekusoma; ulichonichanganya ni uliposema 'paragraph mbili', ilikuwa vigumu kwangu kufahamu zipi hizo hasa, lakini i think in the post i made two major points and i am assuming that it is the very two points that you are referring to kwamba ndizo zenye majibu.......
...Timu ya ushindi. Ila, alitia dosari kwa aliyoyafanya 2nd term yake.Mkapa alikuwa na washauri wazuri wa ndani na nje, mfano Dr. Kwaku ambae ni Mghana but seasoned economist wa World Bank; pia Hernandos Desoto, a prominent South America economist ambae aana kitabu kizuri sana nadhani by the name of 'the misery of capital; pia alikuwa na vichwa vizuri sana pale hazina - kina Doctor Kipokola na wengineo; BOT bado kulikuwa na watu wazuri sana; lakini pia mawaziri wake wa fedha, especially Dr. Kigoda and Professor Mbilinyi were very sober, hawakuteuliwa hivi hivi tu kuongoza wizara nyeti ya fedha; uteuzi wizara ya fedha haitakiwi uwe wa kisiasa au kiurafiki, pale panahitaji high level of professionalism;