Kenya Election 2007: Outcomes

Inavyoonekana ni kuwa kura ambazo zimethibitishwa (6.5 mil) ni 46% ya kura zilizopigwa. Ingawa Raila anaongoza kwa very clear margin, si rahisi kupredict mshindi bado kwa kutumia taarifa hizi pekee kwani kura zilizobaki ni nyingi zaidi. Labda walioko huko Kenya au wengine wenye taarifa watujulishe, hizo kura ambazo bado kuthibitishwa ni za watu wa maeneo gani, na odds zikoje za support ya Kibaki na Odinga huko. Tutajie bado eneo A, B, C, D, na ni stronghold ya Kibaki au Odinga , itasaidia kutafsiri hii trend vizuri.

Hili jambo la mchuano mkali tulijifunza kidogo Tz mwaka 1995. Tume ilianza kutoa matokeo zile sehemu zilizokuwa na nguvu zaidi ya upinzani wakati huo, Kilimanjaro, Pemba, Mara, Kigoma, Arusha, na Iringa, basi tukajua CCM ndio basi tena "tumeshawatema". Kumbe bwana! Walipoona hata Dar nayo pia wanaipoteza, wakavuruga matokeo na kutangaza marudio ya uchaguzi Dar. Kisha wakaanza kutoa matokeo ya sehemu nyingine, ikawa "goli juu ya goli", wakakomba viti vyote vilivyobaki (isipokuwa kimoja tu cha Dar)! Na huo ndio uchaguzi pekee ambako vyama vya upinzani kweli viliitingisha CCM bara, baada ya hapo wakawageuza kuwa kejeli!

Pongezi za pekee kwa mshkaji wangu "Ridikyulasi", ila kwa namna fulani amemuweka pabaya mwenzie wa Tz, "Masanja Mkandamizaji", kwani sasa wataanza "kumwangalia kwa makini"!

Tupeni basi odds za maeneo yaliobaki, nani mwenye nafasi ya ushindi au support kubwa?
 

Nafikiri hapa unasema wame back-up mind zao na kuona kuwa bila kuweka nguvu wamekwisha.

Hili likiwezekana ndio maendeleo lakini nafikiri T-K ametupatia shule moja hapo juu ukiisoma vizuri haina budi itumike Tanzania.

Misingi, Elimu ya kupiga kura ni muhimu katika kupata mafanikio.
 


SUMMARISED REASONS NZITO WHY THIS GENTLEMAN KIBAKI HAD TO GO.

1. KUKATAA KUPIGANA NA CORRUPTION NDAN YA SERIKALI YAKE HATA BAADA YA DIREKTA WA ANTI-CORRUPTION ALIYETOROKEA UINGEREZA KWA KUHOFIA MAISHA YAKE, JOHN GITHONGO KUTOA WAZI RIPTI ILIYOONYESHA MAWAZIRI WAKUTOKA HUKO KWAO CENTRAL PROVINCE WALIKUWA WANAIBA MABILLIONI YA DOLA KAMA NYAKATI ZA MOI TU. MTAJIONEA WENYEWE VILE RAILA ATAPAMBANA NA HAWA MAFISADI WA JADI NA HIVI MAJUZI.

2. KUKATA KATIBA MPYA AMBAYO WAKENYA WALIITAKA INAYOSEMA WAKENYA WANATAKA FEDERAL SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT AU DEVOLUTION OF POWER TO THE GRASS ROOTS. KENYANS WAMECHOKA NA SYSTEM YA MKOLONI ILIYOPO BADO MPAKA SASA KIKATIBA KENYA.

3. KUWAFUKUZA VIGOGO WA MAENEO/MAKABILA ZINGINE MBALI MMBALI TOKA KOTE NCHINI NA KUJISARAUNDI NA KABILA YAKE YA WAKIKUYU NA KUANDIKA WATU WA JAMII YAKE KWA 67% OF THE GOVERNMENT POSTS AU CIVIL SERVICE. MWENYEWE KAWAPTIA CHANCE NZURI AU MDA MWEMA WAFANYE KAMPEIN KABISA.

4. KUKOSA KUZURU NCHI MARA KWA MARA AJUE WANANCHI WANATAKA NINI HASA. YEYE KAISHI STATE HOUSE AKIJIDANGANYA ATI UCHUMI UKIMEA BASI WANANCHI WATAMPA KURA. BASI KINA RAILA WAKAMTANGULIA.

5. KENYANS WAMECHOKA NA UKABILA WA WAKIKUYU DHIDI YA MAKABILA MENGINE. KIBAKI IS A CASULATY OF THIS NATIONAL ATTITUDE THAT HAS UNITED ALL THE OTHER MAJOR TRIBES AGAINST THEM. NDIO MAANA RAILA AMESEMA LAZIMA TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION ITAUNDWA WATU WAWEKE NYOYO ZAO WAZI.



KWA MENGI: SOMA MADA ZANGU NILIZOWAKILISHA HAPA KWA MIEZI MIWILI ZILIZOPITA. NI NDEFU ZINGINE LAKINI NI ZA HAKIKA.
 
mwafrika wa kike said:
CCM itavunjika kutoka ndani na huu ni ukweli. Wasomi wengi sasa wanapanga mkakati wa nini kifanyike baada ya CCM kuporomoka maana hii inayokuja ni kali sana.
Click to expand...


MWK,
Hili liko wazi,,, tunatafuta tu mtabiri tu wa kusema ni lini hasa hili litatokea? kwa kuwa hakuna uwezekano wa CCM kutoka madarakani kama sio kwa njia ya kupasuka vipande... Nyerere alisema, na kila mtu anajua hili... utakuwa umetoa news,,, kama utasema exactly lini?

Sasa hivi kila mwanasiasa as mwanasiasa anaye-pratice siasa ni either yuko CCM au upinzani, lakini as you know wanasiasa wengi wako CCM... kwa hiyo Upinzani lazima uvune kutoka CCM ili upinzani kushinda!!!

Mbinu ni rahisi sana,,, kuwa na chama makini, chenye Dira, high level of Integrity, sustainable strategy! stable institution... then wanaCCM waliochoka watadandia tu!!! kwa sasa ni kupanga safu ya kupata Ubunge, I assure you majimbo marahisi ni ya mjini kama mkiweka watu wazuri na wajiandae mapema.... sio kusubiri 2009/10 ndio eti mnatafuta Mnyika,,, mnaanza kuulizana hivi mnyika umemaliza ile Master yako ati?
 


Thanks buddy; can you also give us sumarisd reasons why you think Raila or any of the other candidates will do better?
 


Asisahau huyo mkuu kwamba Kibaki pia alikuwa Opposition. Kaingia Serikalini kama Chifu wa Opposition. Sasa kama alileta maendeleo basi ndio Raila ataleta zaidi. wwww.raila07.com. Soma manifesto ya ODM kwa makini hapo. Ni ndefu lakini soma na utapata the agenda for change ambao ODM wako nayo. Tuombe uhai na tutajionea nalosema ni la hakika. ODM is not just about the generational revolution alone. ODM sasa ndio imejumulisha mateknokrats, wasomi, watafiti ( akiwemo yule aliyepata umaarufu kuzindua dawa ya kupunga AIDS KEMRON) aitwaye Davy Koech. Sasa PNU ilishindwa kazi jili haikuwa chama ilikuwa muungano wa vyama. Raila kaona hili mapema na akasistiza wote wanaotaka tiketi ya ODM lazima wahame toka chama walipo. Ngilu pekee ndiye alikubaliwa kubaki huko NARC ili amnyime Rais Kibaki nafasi ya kugombea kwa tikiti ya chama hicho huku mda ukididimia hadi Rais akafomu PNU ambayo imemletea aibu tupu.

The Forces of change that started with Raila's father marehemu Jaramogi Oginga Odinga kwa kuopposs sera mbovu na ukabila wa Kenyatta baba wa taifa leo zimeibuka na ushindi. Raila and the mainstream of his think tank, most who come from the Luo community, ni continuation ya kazi aliyoanza babake miaka ya sitini.

The man Raila Odinga is cut for big things na hata maadui zake wanakubali hiyo. Ndio maana kapata sapot toka kwa ANC na kwa akina Fidel Castro, Mumar Gadafi, German, India, South Korea, Nigeria na kwingineko ndani ya kikapu lake la campaign. The forces of neoliberalism and its elitist politics za kila kitu Nairobi have been checked today by the forces of Social Democracy that seek to instal the mwananchi au tumuitavyo huku "wanjiku" as the centre of political power.

What is happening in Kenya is a culmination of the search for political alternatives towards the Kenyan future started by people like Odinga's father, JM Kariuki, Raila, akina Matiba na wengine wengi tuu.

ushindi wa Raila is a victory of the African people against the Big Man and One Party Tyranny or hostage of watu kama akina Kibaki na vyama kama PNU/KANU. It is a major vitory for Democracy in Africa and a statement to the rest of the regimes in EAC and elsewhere on the force of the vote, especially when it is united by a good coalition that is tranethnic, inter-regional and inclusive


LONG LIVE ODM, LONG LIVE RAILA AND LONG LIVE THE AFRICAN VOTER!
 
CCM itapasuka vipande....

Even the sun will be extinguished due to pure entropy and lack of fuel to support the nuclear fusion - 10 billion years from now or so- .

Tuambie kuna mkakati gani wa kuiondoa CCM kesho 2010?
 
Mwendapole said:
Thanks buddy; can you also give us sumarisd reasons why you think Raila or any of the other candidates will do better?
Click to expand...

Ushindi wa Raila sio wakushangiliwa kupindukia na upinzani Tanzania. Pamoja na kuwa watanzania wanaelekea kupata hamasa kwamba kumbe upinzani unaweza kushinda lakini sifa ya upinzani ni zaidi ya ushindi. Ni utekelezaji wa ahadi wa namna tofauti na vyama vilivyopita. Raila ameahidi katiba ndani ya miezi sita. Akishindwa CCM watapata cha kupinga mfano wa Kenya 2010. Raila ameahidi serikali ya majimbo. Katika nchi yenye ukabila kama kenya akitekeleza vibaya sera hii inaweza kuwa sababu ya migawanyiko ya kijamii. Na kama hili ikitokea CHADEMA watakuwa na wakati mgumu wa kuuza sera ya majimbo. Lakini kumbe mazingira ya kisiasa na kijamii ni tofauti katika nchi hizi mbili. Sera ya majimbo ya CHADEMA inauwezo wa kufanya kazi vizuri zaidi katika mazingira ya Tanzania. Raila ameahidi kupiga vita ufisadi. Akishindwa vita hivyo, CCM inaweza kutumia hoja hiyo kuwashambulia CHADEMA kwamba hata mkipewa nyinyi bado hamtaweza kuondoa ufisadi kama ilivyokuwa kwa ODM. ODM imeshinda kwa nguvu ya vijana na ahadi kwa vijana pia za ajira nk; hapa nchini CHADEMA nayo inaelekea kusukumwa kwa nguvu ya vijana. Kama ODM ikishindwa kutimiza matakwa ya vijana si ajabu na Tanzania napo CHADEMA ikapata vizuizi. Lakini yote kwa yote, wanawake na vijana tuna kila sababu ya kushangilia ushindi wa ODM.

Asha
 

Kweli Kabisa Kilitime,

Hili kwa sasa linafanyika na nashukuru sana vijana waliojitolea hapa kama Zitto, Mnyika na Kitila ambao kila leo wanajaribu kupata vijana zaidi wa kujiunga nao kabla ya kufikia mwaka 2010.

Hali ya upinzani inatia moyo na matokeo yataonekana. Lakini pia inabidi kwanza ccm wazuiwe kuiba pesa benki kuu na kuzitumia kuua upinzani kama alivyofanya Kikwete kwa msaada wa Mkapa mwaka 2005. Unajua pesa ni mambo yote. Hawa kina Mnyika wanaweza kufanya mengi lakini bila kuwa na pesa za kutosha yote ni bure.

CCM wao wanatumia mabilioni ya serikali tena kutoka benki kuu au hazina kwa namna nyingine kuiba - huu ni mchezo aliutumia sana Moi kabla hajazibitiwa. Hata Raila ametumia mapesa kibao na watu wengi sana hapa marekani wamechangia kampeni yake.

Taratibu tu mambo yatafanikiwa kwani hata hao wananchi waliopokea vitenge na kofia za Rostam Azizi na wakaipigia kura ccm mwaka 2005 nao watabadilika tu kadri muda unavyokwenda. Sera za ccm za kudidimiza elimu (waalimu wa miezi miwili training) zitafeli tu kwani technolojia itafumbua watanzania inshalah.

Tanzania ni yetu wote na tusaidiane kuitoa ccm madarakani la sivyo kuna siku tutaamka tukute nchi inakaliwa na wazungu wa Barikck na buzwagi yao ambayo imewapa kila right ya kuchukua sehemu yoyote ya Tanzania kwa miaka 50 ijayo.
 
Pundit said:
CCM itapasuka vipande....

Even the sun will be extinguished due to pure entropy and lack of fuel to support the nuclear fusion - 10 billion years from now or so- .

Tuambie kuna mkakati gani wa kuiondoa CCM kesho 2010?
Click to expand...

So far ni wewe na mimi kufanya something about it na wala sio kusubiria kina zitto wakifanya kazi peke yao na kuwataka waseme hapa mikakati yao ya ushindi.
 

Kigeugeu:
Kwa kuongezea aliyoyaweka hapo chini Tanzanian-Kenyani.

Pamoja na kwamba Kibaki is a gentleman, lakini aliwafanya waKenya kuwa kama watu wasiokuwa na akili. Hebu wewe fikiria haya:
Kanu was bootedout in last election, only for its MP to be incorporated in the GNU after the referundum. Why? Kwani waKenya walipokataa hicho chama na wabunge wake hawakujua kuwa wasiwe ktk serikali?

2. Kuwarudisha tena Mwiraria na Murungi bila hata ya shutuma zilizowakabili kuchunguzwa kufanywa - why?

3. Narc Kenya, Narc or PNU? Tena bila ya maelezo ya maana. why? It made mockery the whole idea of having a political party whose policies are obscure. People saw beyond the curtain.

4. Tabia ya kutoa zawadi wakati wa chaguzi, tena zawadi za kipuuzi - creation of new districts. People new the real meaning of that.

5. Too much detached (hands-off) approach to governance - some would say this was a terrible weakness that allowed crooks to reign havock. Recall the Artul brothers aibu.

Otherwise, Kibaki is a great guy, who allowed unprecedented freedom; ingawaje akina Michuki hawatasahaulika na The Standard uvamizi.
 
K-T,

Sasa wewe mkuu utapata nafasi gani Kwa Raila? Na kama ukipata nafasi je bado utakuwa rafiki yetu sisi Watz? Je utakuwa JF au utalala mbele na kutusuhau?
 
Mwendapole said:
Thanks buddy; can you also give us sumarisd reasons why you think Raila or any of the other candidates will do better?
Click to expand...

Mwenda Pole hello,

Karibu sana. Naomba usome mada nilizowakilisha hapa JF for the past 2 months. Nilitoa reasons zangu nyingi tu na arguments za kihistoria why kama msomi niliwezakubashiri Raila na ODM watashinda kwa margin kubwa tuu na tena watatengeza serikali itakayofanya mengi sana Kenya. Zisome halafu baada ya kura tutafanya post-elections analysis pamoja.

The very fact that there is a new multi-ethnic government which is popular in all four corners of Kenya is 50% of the development that Raila's win will bring is 50% change. The remaining 50%, 30% yake will come from major political and economical structural adjustments that will follow beginning next year under an ODM governmen and ODM dominated bunge. Wananchi here will do the rest 20%. The government does not bring development. This is a post-colonial myth that was peddled for so long by akina KANU and even PNU. The government only creates a climate for development and the hardworking Africans of that country will always bring development of their choice to their homes and soceities.

When the government is reduced from being a baba na mama wa taifa and become a servant/facilitator of a people's development then such a people can always dictate to that government and not vice-versa.

Mzalendo, mimi ni mwalimu tu. Nitarejea darasani for chalk and talk but wanafunzi watafurahi kuona kwamba mambo tunayowafunza chuo kikuu kwenye darasa za politics na history sio tuu theory ila practice ndio muhimu zaidi. Tuko pamoja siku zote. A teacher must always say the truth hata kama si nzuri. Sikumpenda Raila kama mtu binafsi kama nimoendavyo Kibaki lakini nilisikia sana sauti za watu wengi kote niendako nchini kukagua miradi za chuo. Tuko pamoja waheshimiwa, leo na hata kesho.


Haya naomba turejee kwa results jameni....nisubilini naja nazo jili wameanza kutangaza tena.
 

Asante K-T,

kweli kabisa nguvu ya upinzani imekuwa kubwa na Kibaki alifanya usaliti na wananchi wamemwazibu yeye na mawaziri karibu wote wa serikali yake.

Raila ni inspirational na inabidi wapenda mageuzi wote wafurahie pale itakapotangazwa kuwa ameshinda.

BTW, tupatie updates basi maana tukiona kimya tunaanza kuongea mengine ili ku-keep this thread going wakati tukisubiria toka kwako.

Kuna swali hapa liliulizwa kuwa % ngapi ya kura za central zimeshahesabiwa so far?
 

Mkuu, watu wanataka mabadiliko. Kama umesikiliza BBC mama mmoja wa kijijini amehojiwa na alisema hivi: "siku hizi sisi tumeshajua, unamchagua mtu miaka mitano akileta maslaha tunamtoa tunaweka mwingine. Mtoto akililia uwembe, mpe akijikata shauri yake. Odinga amelilia urais, sisi tunampa, akishindwa 2012 tunamfukuza:. Huyu ni mama wa kijiji huko Kisumu, doing a professor's analysis. Ndio nasema hawa wenzetu inapokuja kwenye mambo ya siasa wametuzidi, tukubali tu kujifunza kwao. Kwa hiyo mzee swala la u-gentlema hapa hakuna, kama ni gentleman sana kama alivyosema Nyerere wakanywe naye chai.
 
If you ask me, politician are politicians, whatever colour they come up with. Kibaki naye aliingia ikulu na ahadi lukuki kama JK, wengi wakamuamini na hata WaTz tukaona kumbe upinzani unaweza kuchukua madaraka; where is the Kibaki who walked into the presidency limping but surrounded by Kenyans applause and hopes? they are all liars, until such time when we elect people who are not money-hungry ; who are God-fearing... sooon Kenyans will sing a different song , that is, if and when Raila takes office
 


Mzee hii hotuba inawafaa watz, sio kwa wakenya. Kwa wakenya hizo ni ngonjera and I dont think if Kenya can take a lecture on democracy from a Tanzanian, I doubt it very much. Kosa tulilofanya na ambalo tunaendelea kulifanya ni kufikiri tutaleta mabadiliko kwa kubadilisha matawi (Mwinyi then Ben then JK), tunahitaji kung'oa mti (CCM). Sasa ndio maana ya demokrasia, maanake urais ni miaka 5 then tunakutathmini kama wananchi wanaona umepwaya wanakutimua, haya mambo ya kusema sio vizuri kubadilisha rais in five years, then why should we have these elections in the first place? I like your comments Mwendapole on this esteemed JF, but this one was a very bad lecture indeed!
 

Yep, a bad one but you seem to get the point bro. Kwa mfano wako wa Tz, umesogeza point yangu a step further..
Kama kikomo ni miaka kumi; raisi anaingia madarakani, anaweka mikakati ya miaka kumi, halfway through anabadilishwa, unafikiri yeye kama raisi ana hasara au ni sisi walalahoi ndo tunabeba gharama za mabadiliko? hata sasa Jk anaboronga lakini bado siamini kama kumtoa baada ya term yake ya kwanza ni dawa..afterall tukimuweka mwingine naye tatatumia miaka yake mitano ya kwanza kujipanga, kununua suti mpya, kujitambulisha nje na ndani na kulipa fadhila. Tukubaliane kuwa Ben alifanya kazi katika kipindi chake cha pili, sasa tukubadili kila miaka mitano kwangu sio dawa..give em the full two terms and see, or, opt for another and spend another five years of whinning
 

Mkuu
Wakenya wako sawa historia inaonyesha kuwa viongozi wa Kiafrika huwa wanaficha makucha kipindi cha kwanza.Ni JK tu aliyetoa kucha kipindi cha kwanza.

Kipindi cha lala salama huwa wanafanya kweli.

Nakumbuka Mwaka 2006, Rafiki yangu pale Nairobi alisema wameteseka sana na KANU hivyo watahakikisha Kibaki hapati tena muhula mwingine hili asije kuzoea na kuwasumbua.

Sasa wamefanya hivyo.
 

Raisi anapochaguliwa na wananchi anapewa miaka 5 ya kutuongoza. Kwanini awe na program ya miaka 10? ina maana anachukulia for granted kwamba ataongoza kwa miaka 10? Hapa ndipo waTZ tunapotofautiana na ndugu zetu waKenya. Kama baada ya miaka 5 raisi hana kitu cha kuonesha wananchi ili wampe miaka mitano mingine hana budi kutolewa.
 
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