Jenerali Ulimwengu: I predict a constitutional crisis ahead!

Malafyale · Jan 6, 2014

omujubi said:
Ukimuondoa mwandishi wa makala Jenerali Ulimwengu na baadhi yetu wachache sana, Watanzania wengi wengine wapo wanaamini kitu ambacho hikijawahi kutokea katika historia ya siasa za dunia, nacho ni chama kilicho madarakani kwa 'mbinu' kukubali kuleta katiba mpya inayoweza kuleta haki na usawa. Kitu hiki ni kigumu!

"Tata" tunahitaji jambo hili tujadili kwa kina sana,lkn vijana hapa wao ni kujadili kuhusu Zitto na CHADEMA tu na kusahau mustakabali wao!Wala vijana hapa baadhi yao hawajui katiba bora ndiyo mkombozi wetu!

CCM hawawezi kubali serikali 3 wala katiba itakayo tishia uhai wao wa kushinda uchaguzi!Hizi za akina JK ni mbwembwe tu kutuhadaa sisi!Bunge litaikataa rasimu ya Mzee Warioba na JK ataturuka kw akauli kuwa hawezi ingilia maamuzi halali ya mhimili mwingine wa dola(Bunge)

Mark my words "omulangira"

William J. Malecela · Jan 6, 2014

BAK said:
Lame duck chief, squabbling courtiers; I predict a constitutional crisis ahead

By Jenerali Ulimwengu
THE EAST AFRICAN

Posted Saturday, January 4 2014 at 12:42

This year dawns with many people unsure of how it may end and how they may fare, either as individuals or as members of recognisable groups. There are just too many questions left unanswered from last year and the years before it for anyone to claim they have peered into the crystal ball.

This may not amount to anything to write home about, for who has ever been able to foretell Nostradamus apart what the future holds? Of course, people will surmise, guesstimate, postulate and conjecture. All these suppose incomplete, or absent, scientific givens for divining the future.

Yet we can all be certain, almost, that if it rises it shall set, and if its born it shall die. That the river will not flow uphill, and that if the village dogs start crowing and the cats take to barking, there is something very seriously wrong.

For the time being, however, we do not have to deal with the more surreal and the outlandish because we have enough material to play with that is more mundane than that, more down to earth.

Take the proposed new constitution, for instance. No magical realism there. The chair of the constitutional review commission, Joseph Warioba, said the other day that the proposed three-tier government came from the views collected during the public hearing conducted by his team; he and his commission were not inventing anything new.

Still, certain people in his own party incline to the view that notwithstanding the views expressed by the public, Warioba should have been able to craft a proposal that rejected the idea of three governments within the Union.

I have failed to make head or tail of the arguments advanced by ruling party in this area, and I admit bafflement.

So, when the constituent assembly is convened, I expect the ruling party, which will be in a sizeable majority, to shoot this proposal down. If this happens, it will open up a new Pandoras Box that may lead to an impasse and a possible constitutional crisis.

President Jakaya Kikwete said the other day and its the law that if there is no agreement on a new constitution, the 1977 Constitution will remain in force. That is to say, after all the expense in money, time and emotions, the nation will be told, very simply, hey, guys, too bad it didnt work, so we go back to our old ways... until the next time!

Of course, there are better ways to provoke the ire of the populace, but this one could be a true shocker. Even a lame-duck presidency should shudder to think of such an eventuality, which would make people feel they have been had.

Lame duck, did I say? Next year, we have presidential elections and the current incumbent is literally accounted for; he cannot run, and this has meant that his wannabe successors have been jostling across the land, preening themselves and doing a very poor job of masking their presidential ambitions.

And all along, they have been exhibiting the very bankruptcy of the political system that allows their mediocrity to even be considered for high office, let alone the highest office in the land.

They started in churches and mosques, where they have been doing their best to bribe God with contributions to this or that charitable cause. But I suspect the Great Wizard has not been listening, or if he has, he is not impressed.

For, it seems to me that our next chief will be determined by boda-boda riders, who seem to have become a popular constituency with these 😛residentials, who tell the ill-disciplined bikers that they will be a priority in the coming administration.

In all this, Kikwete looks pretty much a spectator, the quintessential lame duck whose mantle his squabbling juniors would happily tear from his back were the rules to be more relaxed than they already are. Which means, in turn, that when it comes to finally determining the countrys constitution, the duck could be even lamer.

Thats only from my crystal ball, so kindly ignore it, and have a Happy New Year!
Jenerali Ulimwengu is chairman of the board of the Raia Mwema newspaper and an advocate of the High Court in Dar es Salaam. E-mail: ulimwengu@jenerali.com

- Alikuwa Mkuu wa Wilaya wa CCM alifanya nini cha tofauti na wanaopinga sasa?, Alikuwa msaidizi wa Mkapa akiwa Rais alisaidia kubadilisha nini zaidi ya hawa anaowapinga sas? Baada ya CCM kumtema kwenye kamati yake ya kampeni za Urais wa pili wa Makapa ndio akabadilika na kuanza kuitukana CCM kwa maana ya kwamba wakimpa tena mlo atabadilika tena na kuanza kuisifia CCM kama alivyokuwa zamani,

- Kamati ya Usalama ya Bunge wakati wa Utawala wa Mkapa iliamua kwamba huyu sio Raia wa hapa na arudishwe kwao, lakini Mkapa akaweza urafiki wake na huyu mtu mbele zaidi na kukataa maamuzi ya kamati ya bunge na haya ndio matokeo yake, imagine mbongo aende Rwanda aandike article kama hii Kagame atamfanya nini?

- Katiba mpya inaandikwa na Wa-Tanzania wote sio kundi lako la Serikali Tatu tu, halafu kwa ujanja sana anajaribu kuamua kwamba Rais ajaye ni yule aliyekutana na maboda boda juzi kinondoni, kumbe ndio waliomlipa kuandika hii kitu huzuni sana hili taifa!! Ameanza siku nyingi kutabiri mabaya kwa Taifa na bado haachi tu pamoja na kwamba hayatokei, kaka rudi kwenu tuwachie Taifa letu sisi ni watu wa amani always no matter what we weill stay the same, nenda uwasaidie Chadema huko wanataka kuuana na hela za Rostam na Mkono, marafiki zako!!

Le Mutuz

MwanaCBE · Jan 6, 2014

East African Eagle said:
Ningeshangaa sana kama huyu generali Ulimwengu ambaye ana asili ya WanyaRwanda a-predict mema kwa Tanzania! Ameshika peni "Made in Rwanda" anapotumia kuandika alichoandika.

Katiba yoyote unapotengeneza iliyopo haifi hadi hiyo unayotengeneza mchakato wake unapokamilika ndicho Raisi alichomaanisha.Simple and clear.Kama wananchi au bunge halijaikubali hiyo Rasmu ina maana hiyo katiba mpya bado haijakamilika hivyo hiyo ya zamani inaendelea hadi hiyo mpya iwe tayari.

Mwandishi mzoefu kama yeye kushindwa kuelewa Raisi kasemaje ni aibu kwake na kwa taaluma yake.Au aliandika hii makala hii akiwa chakari bar manaake kwa pombe hajambo.

Andishi lako linaonesha una chuki zako binafsi dhidi ya Ulimwengu.

Haiwezekani madai ya wananchi ya muda mrefu kuhusu katiba mpya yavurugwe na wadhaifu wengi ambao ni wengi bungeni na watakuwa wengi kwenye bunge la katiba alafu mtu asiseme kwa kukuogopa wewe kumbatiza uraia wa kufikirika.

Ni wazi mchakato huu wa kudai katiba mpya umerigharimu taifa mambo mengi sasa haiwezekani hatua za mwisho ukwamishwe kwa sababu dhaifu zilizojaa ubinafsi wa watu kutaka tu madaraka.

Rais kama kiongozi mkuu wa nchi kauli zake zinapaswa kuonesha dhamira ya dhati kusimamia katiba inayotakiwa na wananchi ipatikane tena kwa wakati bila kuleta mizengwe ya kuichelewesha.

Asante Ulimwengu kwa andishi lako.

BAK · Jan 6, 2014

Usishangae wakaanza kumtafutia visa tena kwamba huyu si Mtanzania blah blah blah. Watu wenye mawazo yaliyotulia kama huyu na hawapindishi ukweli Serikali hii dhalimu inawachukia sana.

For, it seems to me that our next chief will be determined by boda-boda riders, who seem to have become a popular constituency with these 😛residentials, who tell the ill-disciplined bikers that they will be a priority in the coming administration.

Dingswayo said:
Kudos for Jenerali. He doesn't mince words. He says like it is

Uliza_Bei · Jan 6, 2014

Hatugombani na katiba mpya inatupatia rais ajaye...amini usiamini!!!!

Kajunjumele BA · Jan 6, 2014

Ndugu yangu East African Eagle...naomba nitoafautiane nawe kwani kimsingi hapa una attack personality na kuacha hoja ya msingi but his comment was very focussed kwamba President was not expected to come with that remark ...Rais alitakiwa Kuwa Optimistic na ku encourage kufikiwa kwa malengo na maridhiano ya Katiba Mpya na si kuonesha "negativity" and mind you hilo alilolisema Mheshimiwa Rais "as by the way" ndo ukawa msimamo wa siri wa CCM licha ya kwamba wananchi watakataa na kama alivyo tabiri GENERALI na hakika hawatakubali tena kufa kikondoo....watapambania Haki yao.

Kiuhalisia mtu akicheza na hili la Katiba Mungu atunusuru hapa hapata kalika wala kushikika watu wako kimya ila wamechoka wansubiri kipenga cha mwisho tu ndo wa ingie uwanjani.Ni vema viongozi walipime na kulizingatia hili wanapofikiria kutaka kucheza sentakalawe zao.

Kwa hoja kama zilivyotolewa na Ulimwengu hakuna cha Urwanda ,Uhutu au Utusi wa Mtu that is crystal clear and I bet the remak by Honourable President was a sleep of the tongue

BAK · Jan 6, 2014

Ahsante sana Mkuu Kanjunjumele BA nilidhani Kikwete atajitahidi kufanya kila awezalo ili Watanzania tumkumbuke kwa kusimamia zoezi hili na kuhakikisha kwamba katiba itakayopatikana ni ile ambayo itakubaliwa na Watanzania walio wengi na kuwa tayari kutumika 2015, lakini hiyo kauli yake hapo juu imenipa wasiwasi mkubwa kama ni usanii mwingine mkubwa ambao mabilioni ya pesa za walipa kodi zimetumika na masaa chungu nzima ya Watanzania wengi walioamua kushiriki katika zoezi la kuipata katiba mpya. MACCM hawaitaki kabisa katiba mpya maana wanajua fika ndio itakuwa mwisho wa uhai wao. Sasa nahisi kwamba uchaguzi ujao wa 2015 utafanyika kwa kutumia katiba ambayo imepitwa na wakati na kwa kiasi kikubwa bado ya chama kimoja.

Kajunjumele BA said:
Ndugu yangu East African Eagle...naomba nitoafautiane na yeye hapa una attack personality but his comment was very focussed that infact the President was not expected to come with that remark ...Rais alitakiwa Kuwa Optimistic na ku encourage kufikiwa kwa malengo na maridhiano ya Katiba Mpya na si kuonesha "negativity" and mind you hilo alilolisema as by the way ndiyo msimamo wa siri wa CCM licha ya kwamba wananchi watakataa na kama alivyo tabiri ulimwengu na hakika hawatakubali tena kufa kikondoo....watapambania Haki yao.

Hapa hakuna cha Urwanda ,Uhutu au Utusi wa Mtu that is crystal clear and i bet that the remak by Honourable President was a sleep of the tongue

Kajunjumele BA · Jan 6, 2014

Lemutuzi mimi katika hoja yako ya tatu na tofautiana na wewe kwani ukisoma between lines Generali Ulimwengu hajawabeba hao watumia Bodaboda katika kuusaka Urais toka mwanzo wa makala yake amewaponda kabisa ametumia utaalamu wa lugha kwa kufanya expression in a sarcatic way ambapo ukisoma kwa juujuu na haraka unaweza ukakosa mantiki na kutafsiri vingine lakini ukisoma kwa undani zaidi utagundua kwamba anawabeza hivyo haja hongwa kwani wange mhonga asinge wabeza hebu cheki haya maelezo halafu uniambaie; hii makala imekaa kifalsafa zaidi na kwakweli is not an assetion of any fact but a clear explanation of the opinion or thought

For, it seems to me that our next chief will be determined by boda-boda riders, who seem to have become a popular constituency with these "😛residentials," who tell the ill-disciplined bikers that they will be a priority in the coming administratio

jerrytz · Jan 6, 2014

East African Eagle said:
Ningeshangaa sana kama huyu generali Ulimwengu ambaye ana asili ya WanyaRwanda a-predict mema kwa Tanzania! Ameshika peni "Made in Rwanda" anapotumia kuandika alichoandika.

Katiba yoyote unapotengeneza iliyopo haifi hadi hiyo unayotengeneza mchakato wake unapokamilika ndicho Raisi alichomaanisha.Simple and clear.Kama wananchi au bunge halijaikubali hiyo Rasmu ina maana hiyo katiba mpya bado haijakamilika hivyo hiyo ya zamani inaendelea hadi hiyo mpya iwe tayari.

Mwandishi mzoefu kama yeye kushindwa kuelewa Raisi kasemaje ni aibu kwake na kwa taaluma yake.Au aliandika hii makala hii akiwa chakari bar manaake kwa pombe hajambo.

tatizo si Generali Ulimwengu tatizo ni wewe kutoelewa alichoandika. Embu rudia hiyo sentensi na uielewe......

Baba Joseph17 · Jan 6, 2014

Nimevutiwa na hiki kipande;
They started in churches and mosques, where they have been doing their best to bribe God with contributions to this or that charitable cause. But I suspect the Great Wizard has not been listening, or if he has, he is not impressed.

Baba Joseph17 · Jan 6, 2014

Acha ukaburu wako ninyi si ndo mliemwandama eti ni Mtusi mkataka kumwondoa nchini kisa mlipata fununu kuwa anataka kugombea Urais
Kama ni serikali 3 hata baba yako alizitaka na zikamgharimu na kuondolewa katika cheo chake cha PM. Muulize ilikuwaje wakataka serikali ya Tanganyika irudi? G55 hata mwenyekiti wako wa chama wa sasa naye alikuwa analishabikia.
Rais wa bodaboda ni mwanachama na kiongozi huko CCm, we mwandame tu utashangaa mkesha wa mwaka2014/2015 akakualika ukale nyama.

W. J. Malecela said:
- Alikuwa Mkuu wa Wilaya wa CCM alifanya nini cha tofauti na wanaopinga sasa?, Alikuwa msaidizi wa Mkapa akiwa Rais alisaidia kubadilisha nini zaidi ya hawa anaowapinga sas? Baada ya CCM kumtema kwenye kamati yake ya kampeni za Urais wa pili wa Makapa ndio akabadilika na kuanza kuitukana CCM kwa maana ya kwamba wakimpa tena mlo atabadilika tena na kuanza kuisifia CCM kama alivyokuwa zamani,

- Kamati ya Usalama ya Bunge wakati wa Utawala wa Mkapa iliamua kwamba huyu sio Raia wa hapa na arudishwe kwao, lakini Mkapa akaweza urafiki wake na huyu mtu mbele zaidi na kukataa maamuzi ya kamati ya bunge na haya ndio matokeo yake, imagine mbongo aende Rwanda aandike article kama hii Kagame atamfanya nini?

- Katiba mpya inaandikwa na Wa-Tanzania wote sio kundi lako la Serikali Tatu tu, halafu kwa ujanja sana anajaribu kuamua kwamba Rais ajaye ni yule aliyekutana na maboda boda juzi kinondoni, kumbe ndio waliomlipa kuandika hii kitu huzuni sana hili taifa!! Ameanza siku nyingi kutabiri mabaya kwa Taifa na bado haachi tu pamoja na kwamba hayatokei, kaka rudi kwenu tuwachie Taifa letu sisi ni watu wa amani always no matter what we weill stay the same, nenda uwasaidie Chadema huko wanataka kuuana na hela za Rostam na Mkono, marafiki zako!!

Le Mutuz

East African Eagle · Jan 6, 2014

Halfcaste said:
Naona povu kweli kweli pole sana imekuingia. Jenerali Twaha Ulimwengu ni mzaliwa was Muleba Kamachumu wala sio Mnyarwanda kama unavodai. Wazazi wake wana asili ya Manyema-lakini walikulia Uhayani Huwa Mara zote hakosei. He is a nationalist.

Kama ambavyo wakimbizi haramu hupenda kuficha majina yao halisi ndivyo ilivyo kwa generali Ulimwengu.Wakimbizi wengi haramu wana majina wanayotumia wazi mitaani, majumbani n.k yale yenyewe huwa wanayaacha kwenye vyeti. Jina lake halisi la Generali ulimwengu ni TWAHA NKUNDABATWALE.Hili hataki kabisa kulitumia iwe kuandikia makala na kadhalika akijua watamjua.Anang`ang`ania hilo kujificha.

Hivi aliyesema Ulimwengu ni raia wa Tanzania ni nani? Iko haja uhamiaji wamfuatilie upya kabisa wa-revisit his immigration status.Kama kuna aliyehongwa au akatengeneza document feki ashughulikiwe hata kama alistaafu serikalini.
Immigration msituzengue chimbueni barabara uraia wa huyu mtu TWAHA NKUNDABATWALE kwa jina la kujificha Generali ulimwengu analosingizia eti walimpa kiutani shule wakati anasoma na yeye kalikubali kalikomalia kuwa ndio lafaa kuwa kichaka cha kujifichia.

simplemind · Jan 6, 2014

Shoot down the 3 govt. propasals and you will have to shoot down a good many angry youth in the streets of Zanzibar. This time around the revolution will be televised.

kalukamise · Jan 6, 2014

kwa mbaaaaali i can see the crisis. I can not see how chama tawala will allow serikali 3. wako tayari hata kutumia vitu vyenye ncha kali, we ngoja tu

East African Eagle · Jan 6, 2014

simplemind said:
Shoot down the 3 govt. propasals and you will have to shoot down a good many angry youth in the streets of Zanzibar. This time around the revolution will be televised.

rwandese online!! Kikwete ongeza spidi ya tokomeza wahamiaji haramu please!

Thegame · Jan 6, 2014

Ivonya-Ngia said:
Ndugu East African Eagle

Kuna utofauti gani kati ya ulichoandika wewe na alichoandika Jenerali? Tena yeye amekuonyesha kuwa ni zaidi ya maneno tu ya Rais Kikwete, hiyo ni sheria. Ama kwa kuwa Jenerali ameandika kwa kiingereza na wewe umeandika kwa kiswahili?

Umeumbiwa ubongo kwa ajili ya kutafakari, fanya hivyo. Kauli ya Rais Kikwete mwenyewe haikuwa tu kutanabaisha kuwa mchakato ukishindwa tutabaki tulipo, msome kwa makini kauli yake na utaona kuwa anaonya. Onyo lake ni kuwa si vema kama taifa kutumia muda wetu na gharama kubwa kuanzisha mchakato ambao utashindwa na kubaki palepale. Ni aibu na hasara. Ndiyo maana uliona akijikita kuwaonya wajumbe wa bunge la katiba kutanguliza maslahi ya taifa mbele ili tuwe na mustakabali mwema wa taifa jipya lenye maono na mwelekeo mpya.

Ni aibu kwa mtu yeyote aliyestaarabika kujenga hoja kwa kutumia kichaka cha ubaguzi. Naamini nami sasa utanipa utaifa wenye nasaba na taifa lingine, karibu sana.

Please learn to argue, do not shout!

Labda na wewe huja muelewa,
Should we accept a constitution of which we do not agree just because of costs and time spent??
Logic ya Raisi Kikwete ni simple tu, tuwe na katiba ambayo contents zake wananchi wanakubaliana nazo!
Na kama wananchi hawakubaliani na contents hizo basi ni bora kuitumia katiba iliyopo kuliko kuipitisha tu katiba mpya ambayo wananchi haikubali, eti ipitishwe tu Kwasababu tumetumia gharama kubwa na muda wa kutosha.

MwanaCBE · Jan 6, 2014

Kajunjumele BA said:
Ndugu yangu East African Eagle...naomba nitoafautiane nawe kwani kimsingi hapa una attack personality na kuacha hoja ya msingi but his comment was very focussed kwamba President was not expected to come with that remark ...Rais alitakiwa Kuwa Optimistic na ku encourage kufikiwa kwa malengo na maridhiano ya Katiba Mpya na si kuonesha "negativity" and mind you hilo alilolisema Mheshimiwa Rais "as by the way" ndo ukawa msimamo wa siri wa CCM licha ya kwamba wananchi watakataa na kama alivyo tabiri GENERALI na hakika hawatakubali tena kufa kikondoo....watapambania Haki yao.

Kiuhalisia mtu akicheza na hili la Katiba Mungu atunusuru hapa hapata kalika wala kushikika watu wako kimya ila wamechoka wansubiri kipenga cha mwisho tu ndo wa ingie uwanjani.Ni vema viongozi walipime na kulizingatia hili wanapofikiria kutaka kucheza sentakalawe zao.

Kwa hoja kama zilivyotolewa na Ulimwengu hakuna cha Urwanda ,Uhutu au Utusi wa Mtu that is crystal clear and I bet the remak by Honourable President was a sleep of the tongue

Pokea LIKE huko ulipo ndugu.

MwanaCBE · Jan 6, 2014

W. J. Malecela said:
- Alikuwa Mkuu wa Wilaya wa CCM alifanya nini cha tofauti na wanaopinga sasa?, Alikuwa msaidizi wa Mkapa akiwa Rais alisaidia kubadilisha nini zaidi ya hawa anaowapinga sas? Baada ya CCM kumtema kwenye kamati yake ya kampeni za Urais wa pili wa Makapa ndio akabadilika na kuanza kuitukana CCM kwa maana ya kwamba wakimpa tena mlo atabadilika tena na kuanza kuisifia CCM kama alivyokuwa zamani,

- Kamati ya Usalama ya Bunge wakati wa Utawala wa Mkapa iliamua kwamba huyu sio Raia wa hapa na arudishwe kwao, lakini Mkapa akaweza urafiki wake na huyu mtu mbele zaidi na kukataa maamuzi ya kamati ya bunge na haya ndio matokeo yake, imagine mbongo aende Rwanda aandike article kama hii Kagame atamfanya nini?

- Katiba mpya inaandikwa na Wa-Tanzania wote sio kundi lako la Serikali Tatu tu, halafu kwa ujanja sana anajaribu kuamua kwamba Rais ajaye ni yule aliyekutana na maboda boda juzi kinondoni, kumbe ndio waliomlipa kuandika hii kitu huzuni sana hili taifa!! Ameanza siku nyingi kutabiri mabaya kwa Taifa na bado haachi tu pamoja na kwamba hayatokei, kaka rudi kwenu tuwachie Taifa letu sisi ni watu wa amani always no matter what we weill stay the same, nenda uwasaidie Chadema huko wanataka kuuana na hela za Rostam na Mkono, marafiki zako!!

Le Mutuz

Hoja zako kama za mtoto wa std 4. Baba zima unaandika utoto, sasa sijui wewe mwenyewe unahisi umeandika vya maana!!?

Shame on you..!!!

Thegame · Jan 6, 2014

Malafyale said:
CUF wanataka Muungano wa Mkataba
CHADEMA wanataka serikali 3
NCCR wanataka serikali 3
TLP haijulikani
CCM walio wengi wanataka serikali 2

Ndugu yangu, malafyale mwenzangu, tunapolichukua suala la katiba kwa kuzingatia misimamo ya vyama vyetu tutakuwa tuna jichimbia kaburi wenyewe!
Na huu ni ujinga ambao wana siasa wanatupandikizia watz? Tunataka katiba ya wananchi wa vyama vyote waikubali wenyewe! La sivyo kila chama kipya kikishinda uchaguzi wataleta hoja ya kutengeneza katiba mpya Kwasababu tu iliyopo ilikuwa ya itikadi ya chama fulani!
Usiikubali katiba Kwasababu ya maoni ya Mbowe, au Slaa, au Kikwete, au Nape! au Lipimba au Mbatia!
Fikiria mwenyewe kulingana na uhitaji wa taifa letu na si uhitaji wa vyama vyetu!
Naona vijana wengi wameshikiwa ufahamu wao na viongozi hao pamoja na vyama vyao, huo ni ujinga, badilikeni

sikajiji · Jan 6, 2014

BAK said:
Lame duck chief, squabbling courtiers; I predict a constitutional crisis ahead

By Jenerali Ulimwengu
THE EAST AFRICAN

Posted Saturday, January 4 2014 at 12:42

This year dawns with many people unsure of how it may end and how they may fare, either as individuals or as members of recognisable groups. There are just too many questions left unanswered from last year and the years before it for anyone to claim they have peered into the crystal ball.

This may not amount to anything to write home about, for who has ever been able to foretell Nostradamus apart what the future holds? Of course, people will surmise, guesstimate, postulate and conjecture. All these suppose incomplete, or absent, scientific givens for divining the future.

Yet we can all be certain, almost, that if it rises it shall set, and if its born it shall die. That the river will not flow uphill, and that if the village dogs start crowing and the cats take to barking, there is something very seriously wrong.

For the time being, however, we do not have to deal with the more surreal and the outlandish because we have enough material to play with that is more mundane than that, more down to earth.

Take the proposed new constitution, for instance. No magical realism there. The chair of the constitutional review commission, Joseph Warioba, said the other day that the proposed three-tier government came from the views collected during the public hearing conducted by his team; he and his commission were not inventing anything new.

Still, certain people in his own party incline to the view that notwithstanding the views expressed by the public, Warioba should have been able to craft a proposal that rejected the idea of three governments within the Union.

I have failed to make head or tail of the arguments advanced by ruling party in this area, and I admit bafflement.

So, when the constituent assembly is convened, I expect the ruling party, which will be in a sizeable majority, to shoot this proposal down. If this happens, it will open up a new Pandoras Box that may lead to an impasse and a possible constitutional crisis.

President Jakaya Kikwete said the other day and its the law that if there is no agreement on a new constitution, the 1977 Constitution will remain in force. That is to say, after all the expense in money, time and emotions, the nation will be told, very simply, hey, guys, too bad it didnt work, so we go back to our old ways... until the next time!

Of course, there are better ways to provoke the ire of the populace, but this one could be a true shocker. Even a lame-duck presidency should shudder to think of such an eventuality, which would make people feel they have been had.

Lame duck, did I say? Next year, we have presidential elections and the current incumbent is literally accounted for; he cannot run, and this has meant that his wannabe successors have been jostling across the land, preening themselves and doing a very poor job of masking their presidential ambitions.

And all along, they have been exhibiting the very bankruptcy of the political system that allows their mediocrity to even be considered for high office, let alone the highest office in the land.

They started in churches and mosques, where they have been doing their best to bribe God with contributions to this or that charitable cause. But I suspect the Great Wizard has not been listening, or if he has, he is not impressed.

For, it seems to me that our next chief will be determined by boda-boda riders, who seem to have become a popular constituency with these 😛residentials, who tell the ill-disciplined bikers that they will be a priority in the coming administration.

In all this, Kikwete looks pretty much a spectator, the quintessential lame duck whose mantle his squabbling juniors would happily tear from his back were the rules to be more relaxed than they already are. Which means, in turn, that when it comes to finally determining the countrys constitution, the duck could be even lamer.

Thats only from my crystal ball, so kindly ignore it, and have a Happy New Year!
Jenerali Ulimwengu is chairman of the board of the Raia Mwema newspaper and an advocate of the High Court in Dar es Salaam. E-mail: ulimwengu@jenerali.com

Jenerali Ulimwengu: I predict a constitutional crisis ahead!

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