IMF GDP Projections 2014 - 2021

Mekatilili

Mekatilili

JF-Expert Member
Oct 16, 2011
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Projecting the GDP of most African countries is about as easy as projecting what the weather will be 5 years from today. The authorities on these issues are Breton Woods institutions. Here is a preview of their projections to 2021. Let us have a reasoned debate on the region's measly figures and how we can improve our numbers. Only seasoned and reasoned out arguments will entertained.

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An optimistic view from the African Business Magazine: Why Africa Will Rule The 21st Century

Africa’s mean growth rate of 5.6% in the 2000s is more than double its rate of 2.2% in the 1990s and is higher than the global average. Given the similarities between the growth curves of India after 1990 and Africa today, “to maintain an average SSA growth rate equal to what India achieved on its growth trajectory, countries with per capita GDP below $10,000 should grow by 7.3% this decade, 8.6% in the 2020s, 10.5% in the 2030s and a remarkable 12.6% from 2040–49,” says the book. According to this scenario, in 2038, roughly 300m Nigerians will be enjoying an average per capita income of $10,000 and their GDP will have reached $3 trillion, similar to Germany today. By 2050, Kenya’ s GDP will reach $1 trillion, Ethiopia $1.5 trillion and Uganda $755bn. - See more at: Why Africa Will Rule The 21st Century
 
One point which I'm not sure if is correct is about predicting African economy. No one could've predict Ebola or Burundi Nkurunziza tactical power struggle. We don't even know what Trump will BRING to Africa or what will he TAKE out of Africa.

Back to the main topic there is nothing more EAC can do than good planning and hard work. For many years Southern Africa region has been beating East Africa on productivity. We don't innovate anything, we import too much, budget deficit is not in EAC favour. We don't use our raw material to create local jobs for ourselves, our raw material are creating jobs elsewhere. In Tanzania we are determined to change this, by focusing more on job creation using everything we've under the sun. From mineral to land to people to agriculture even the long coast line. If we masha up all those things, I'm pretty sure those numbers will start dialling upwards.
 
LightYagami said:
I still hope East Africa will be one united country one day
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No, most people including myself don't want that (even though its our best chance in becoming a world power in this century, while we still alive)

I do however wish us in the future to be united in purpose, so much so that it would be like we are one people, in sync and complimenting each othet ...
 
Kafrican said:
No, most people including myself don't want that (even though its our best chance in becoming a world power in this century, while we still alive)

I do however wish us in the future to be united in purpose, so much so that it would be like we are one people, in sync and complimenting each othet ...
Click to expand...
What is the reason made you say no for the union. I know Tanzania we've been very sceptical with this idea because of clause of the union. The list of what will lose is longer than what we'll gain.
 
Kafrican said:
No, most people including myself don't want that (even though its our best chance in becoming a world power in this century, while we still alive)

I do however wish us in the future to be united in purpose, so much so that it would be like we are one people, in sync and complimenting each othet ...
Click to expand...

I am with you on this. Strong independent nation states with policies that allow for well reasoned integration is the way to go.

The slow moving East African community is a grand example of how not to "do" integration.
 
Mekatilili said:
Projecting the GDP of most African countries is about as easy as projecting what the weather will be 5 years from today.
Click to expand...

I doubt if it is simple to predict weather for such a long time since that phenomenon is in the open system.
 
Mekatilili said:
I am with you on this. Strong independent nation states with policies that allow for well reasoned integration is the way to go.

The slow moving East African community is a grand example of how not to "do" integration.
Click to expand...

What is the main purpose of integration? Is it not because of comparative advantage?
 
Kafrican said:
No, most people including myself don't want that (even though its our best chance in becoming a world power in this century, while we still alive)

I do however wish us in the future to be united in purpose, so much so that it would be like we are one people, in sync and complimenting each othet ...
Click to expand...
This couldn't be further from the truth. Most people do want a federation, they just can't agree on the details: timeline of implementation and structure of the federation
 
Mekatilili said:
Projecting the GDP of most African countries is about as easy as projecting what the weather will be 5 years from today. The authorities on these issues are Breton Woods institutions. Here is a preview of their projections to 2021. Let us have a reasoned debate on the region's measly figures and how we can improve our numbers. Only seasoned and reasoned out arguments will entertained.

uOfDsu4.jpg
Click to expand...
I would like to see PPP projections for the same period
 
Mwanamayu said:
I doubt if it is simple to predict weather for such a long time since that phenomenon is in the open system.
Click to expand...

The entire phrase underscores the fact that it is hard to predict GDP. I think you missed the stylistic device.

Mwanamayu said:
What is the main purpose of integration? Is it not because of comparative advantage?
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Economic integration calls for the removal of barriers and comparative advantage stems from the removal of barriers. It is not the primary reason.
 
Wy is it that the gap between Kenya and TZ is getting bigger??? sai its $20Billion and by 2021 Kenya's economy will have $30Billion on Tanzania...I read so many articles saying that TZ is overtaking Kenya...What a joke!!!!:p:p:p
 
Mwanzi1 said:
What is the reason made you say no for the union. I know Tanzania we've been very sceptical with this idea because of clause of the union. The list of what will lose is longer than what we'll gain.
Click to expand...
A union is passed its bedtime.... we dont need to be held by a constitution to be united, it will be better if we are free to do anything as individual countries but we choose to be united.... we should unite in common things, education curriculum, bussiness laws, tourism regulation, we should have somekind or regional police like interpol that investigate regional crimes.... common things like that... we should also be economically integrated with free movement of people...... but at the end of the day, each country should be able to have its own priority and make its own decisions as independent country ...

my thinking is like this.... between two people who marry each other out of convinience and stay together together "because they are married and its their their responsibility"
and another two people who arent bounded by a piece of paper but stay together without bieng married because they love each other and nothing else.....
 
Nigeria will have GDP figures higher than several European nations by 2021.....however, when u visit Nigeria, you will be shocked to see that there is no development at all....they call it the Giant economy while it is the most useless country in Africa....Oil economies are very misleading....Angola, Sudan both have bigger GDp figures than Kenya but u cannot even compare these countries with mighty Kenya.... Kenya has way better infrastructure and modern looking cities....I pity my Africa
 
Kafrican said:
A union is passed its bedtime.... we dont need to be held by a constitution to be united, it will be better if we are free to do anything as individual countries but we choose to be united.... we should unite in common things, education curriculum, bussiness laws, tourism regulation, we should have somekind or regional police like interpol that investigate regional crimes.... common things like that... we should also be economically integrated with free movement of people...... but at the end of the day, each country should be able to have its own priority and make its own decisions as independent country ...

my thinking is like this.... between two people who marry each other out of convinience and stay together together "because they are married and its their their responsibility"
and another two people who arent bounded by a piece of paper but stay together without bieng married because they love each other and nothing else.....
Click to expand...
There is no such a thing as half marriage (nusu mkate), you either in or out. IN like EU or USA or OUT like South America. 90% of EU rules and regulations are decided in Brussels, same as US are all decided in DC. What you're suggesting will run aground when one or two or more members falls behind because they couldn't keep up with the pace of their peers eg. Greece, Spain, Portugal. If that situation arose you'll see other countries run for the cover protecting their interest. But if you're all working under the same rules, same law, you'll be on the same page and easy to regulate. The situation with Britain to go with brexit, because the original idea of EU was to trade and to stop fighting one another, but over the years Britain have found themselves losing their sovereignty bit by bit until they couldn't take it any more. On EAC we need to decide are we all in or out.
 
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