Ethiopia, please join the East African Community

[msemakweli]

Some say it is an inevitable eventuality.
But what's taking them so long?

Quick stats about Ethiopia:
Size: 1,104,300 km2
Population:87 million
GDP (PPP): $132 billion
Quick stats about the EAC (Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi combined)
Size: 1,820,664 km2
Population:154 million
GDP (PPP): $298 billion

In my opinion, Somalia and South Sudan need to take a chill pill and stabilize before they can even start thinking of joining the EAC. The security of East Africans should not be compromised thanks to some leaders' cravings for power or delusions of grandeur. But Ethiopia! It beats me why we haven't yet begged them to join us!

Recent news that the Republic of Somalia and newly independent South Sudan have applied to join the East African Community (EAC) has elicited uncharacteristically heated debate on the hitherto rather sedate and lacklustre dialogue on the region's economic and political integration process.

Predictably, reactions include a rehash of conventional anti-integration rhetoric about the potential threat of increased insecurity, cross border crime and terrorism. The most virulent pessimists -often associated with Tanzanian – predict a cataclysmic trajectory of regional instability and possible war. The more sober observers see increased trade volumes, market expansion and free movement.

These positives will be facilitated by a resurgence of regional mega-infrastructure deals including the recent launch of a US$26 billion port, oil pipeline, rail, highway and fibre-optic regional infrastructure deal (LAPSSET) inaugurated by the presidents of Kenya and South Sudan and Ethiopia's Prime minister.

Game-changing scenarios

The most interesting and more optimistic analysis is rendered by veteran Ugandan journalist Charles Onyango-Obbo who cites three potentially game-changing scenarios in the region's geopolitics: One is the likely shift of the region's ‘centre of power' from traditional states (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania) northwards as Ethiopia, the region's military and economic hegemon, eventually joins the EAC.

Ethiopia's entry, it is argued, is just a matter of time considering the country's military engagement in Somalia and its new ‘look south' policy evidenced by the infrastructure and energy deals with Kenya as well as security and development pacts with South Sudan and possibly Uganda.

Second, a major stumbling block to a more comprehensive deepening of regional integration in Africa (and the EAC more specifically) is its infrastructure deficit. This perception seems to be the motivating factor for those arguing for the scaling down of EAC integration to the three ‘parent' states (Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania).

Conversely, the expected and eventual stabilization of Somalia and the rapid progress of the Lamu Port, South Sudan, Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor will undoubtedly intensify the pace, depth and geographic expansion of the EAC. Additionally, the presence of a large, commercially successful and highly diversified entrepreneurial Somali community in Kenya and Ethiopia, with established links with major trading posts in the region, will catapult already existing relations to a new level.

Perhaps most importantly, the politics and policies of integration will significantly shift from purely economic objectives to security imperatives. The East and Horn of Africa region is comprised from a group of states whose peace and security dynamics are so intertwined that they cannot be resolved independently of each other. The intricate nature, spread, impact and intensity of the myriad conflicts ranging from the great lakes, Uganda-Sudan-Central Africa Republic triangle as well as the Horn of Africa, exemplify this.

The heavy military presence of Uganda, Burundi (and latterly Kenya) and perennial Ethiopian incursions into Somalia demonstrate how nations in the region are responding to perceived common security threats and cooperating as a security block, despite the lack of a common Peace and Security Policy. The recent spike in military spending associated with the frontline states' intervention in the Somali conflict underscores the increased importance in regional security. But the security focus in regional cooperation is not new – the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has long transformed from a drought and disaster response initiative into a fully-fledged peace and security entity.

Towards a Regional Security Community

Peace and security is emerging as the most pressing concern in the region and may be the driver of the future direction of integration. This is happening despite, or perhaps precisely because of, the flurry of activity in oil drilling and press reports regarding new energy resource discoveries in the region. While proponents predict an economic boom, detractors already foresee negative scenarios of potential regional conflict over resources.

No wonder then that the EAC is scrambling to catch up by fast-tracking the development of a Peace and Security Policy. According to its Deputy Secretary General responsible for political integration Beatrice Kiraso, the draft protocol on peace and security would need to go beyond traditional security concerns and address new security threats including cyber-crime, human trafficking, terrorism and yes, piracy.

However, such a significant document that binds states towards mutual defence and the ceding of significant sovereignty powers to a supra-national entity is causing jitters in traditional laggard Tanzania. This doesn't however mean that a regional bloc need necessarily be either an economic, security or even social community. These imperatives are not mutually exclusive as has been erroneously argued elsewhere, but are indeed often jointly necessary and mutually reinforcing.

All these rapid developments pose significant potential challenges if the region is not prepared politically, socially and economically. For starters, Tanzania's alleged intransigence may lead to it being further isolated in the inevitable jostling for influence and power with new players moving in. Tanzania's dual membership in the South African Development Cooperation (SADC) regional bloc is also likely to diminish its influence in EAC decision-making. It's likely that Tanzania will have to make a choice whether to fully embrace the EAC or adopt a partial position such as the UK has done in EU.

For Somalia and South Sudan, membership in the EAC with a new security infrastructure will have mutually beneficial results in helping stabilize their fragile internal politics. The security umbrella provided by a revamped and stronger EAC may act as a deterrent against Khartoum's aggressive stance towards Juba, while neutralising Eritrea's meddlesome policy towards Somalia. Ethiopia would benefit significantly though access to a large regional market and will likely reap peace dividends in the resolution of long-running separatist tendencies in the Oromia and Ogaden regions in the south. As the largest and predictably the fastest growing regional economy, Ethiopia would be the regional hegemon, reaping unprecedented geopolitical gains (and responsibilities) such as Nigeria enjoys within ECOWAS.

Peer pressure

By enhancing trade links, increased investment, access to regional education institutions, civil society interaction, political will and a common market, the post-conflict societies will have a better chance at faster and more sustainable transitions towards stability and development under a new security umbrella offering assurances against potential internal insurrections. Similarly, peer pressure akin to the NEPAD peer review mechanism would lead to the fostering of a democratic political culture through election monitoring, political party exchanges, civic education and neighbourly pressure towards accountable governance and civic responsibility.

Granted, these goals could be a long time coming. The EAC still suffers from significant institutional weakness, lack of political will and the absence of a shared common vision for its future integration. In light of the potential gains, this is the time to seize the immense opportunities offered by strong economic indicators, the discovery of new energy resources, a positive investment climate, entry of new global actors such as China, and a real chance to resolve the Somali conflict and advance nation building in South Sudan. Anything less, would be to squander a rare opportunity for the region to forge a new social, economic, political and civic architecture for the general well-being and welfare of all its peoples.

Source:africanarguments

 

[Jamaa_Mbishi]

Ni kweli.

 

[MSHERWAMPAMBA]

But... what can they put on the table? or what do they have in common with us?and the same question applies to Sudan too.Guys i would like to have your perspective on this issue that matters to all of us.M/Mpamba/peace!

 

[msemakweli]

But... what can they put on the table? or what do they have in common with us?and the same question applies to Sudan too.Guys i would like to have your perspective on this issue that matters to all of us.M/Mpamba/peace!

For starters, a bigger market that would make the EAC more attractive to investors.
They would also help dilute the Kenya-TZ rivalry for dominance.

 

[East African Eagle]

Hiki kitakuwa kilio cha Wakenya wanachopitia wawakilishi wao ndani ya jamiiforums na kwenye magazeti ili ku-lobby kutaka Ethiopia ijiunge EAC ili iwasaidie kuwapiga Alshabab Kwa sababu ndio waliwaoweza walipoivamia Ethiopia kigaidi.
Sidhani kama hicho ni kilio cha other members wa EAC hasa Tanzania.

EAC wanahitaji CONGO DRC ijiunge EAC kuliko Ethiopia!!! Congo Drc ndiko kuna soko kubwa na mali za uhakika.

Hilo la Ethiopia ni kilio cha wakenya!!

 

[msemakweli]

Hiki kitakuwa kilio cha Wakenya wanachopitia wawakilishi wao ndani ya jamiiforums na kwenye magazeti ili ku-lobby kutaka Ethiopia ijiunge EAC ili iwasaidie kuwapiga Alshabab Kwa sababu ndio waliwaoweza walipoivamia Ethiopia kigaidi.
Sidhani kama hicho ni kilio cha other members wa EAC hasa Tanzania.

EAC wanahitaji CONGO DRC ijiunge EAC kuliko Ethiopia!!! Congo Drc ndiko kuna soko kubwa na mali za uhakika.

Hilo la Ethiopia ni kilio cha wakenya!!

Hamna mkuu East African Eagle
Ukiangalia geography ya Africa DRC iko central afrika na siyo East Africa. Wako kwenye economic community of central african states (ECCAS). East Africa ni ETHIOPIA, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia na EAC ya sasa.
Besides, mimi kama mTZ nasupport sana hili suala. Tusilifikirie kwa angle ya wenzetu wana benefit nini ila kwa sisi Tanzania tunabenefit nini. Wewe ungekuwa mfanyabiashara ungelimind sana hilo soko la watu million 87.
Uhaba wa rasilimali Ethiopia umepelekea nchi hiyo kuendeleza sekta zake hasa kilimo na utalii. Tunaweza tukacomplement each other! Ethiopia leo hii inajengwa hata KEnya wanaona aibu. Mji wa Addis Ababa una barabara za kisasa na kipekee kwa hapa EA. Kuna mradi wa kuzalisha 10000MW za umeme (grand renaissance dam). We huoni kama tatizo la umeme hapa EA litamalizika kama tukishirikiana na wenzetu?

 

[Kibona]

Binafsi naona Tanzania tutafute status kama ya UK ktk Umoja wa ulaya. Huyo Obbo ktk uchambuzi wake huwa anaoverlook sana mambo. Mfano anavyoiongelea Ethiopia anaona iko karibu mno kujiunga na EAC kisa eti kwasababu inaproject ya kutumia Lamu port na inashiriki kikamilifu ktk masuala ya usalama ktk somalia. Huyu mwandishi ameoverlook sana, kwanza Ethiopia imeanza kufikiria kutumia Lamu port kwasababu imekuwa landlocked na uhusiano na Eritrea ni mbovu, Djibout ni option nyingine na wako bize kujenga reli kwenda Djibout, sasa kwa mtu yeyote rational ni kuwa na alternative zaidi ya moja maana Djibout ni nchi isiyoaminika, iko influenced sana na mataifa ya nje ni rahisi Ethiopia kuwa victim.
Sasa kuhusu ushiriki wake ktk Somalia, kila mtu anajua historia ya Ethiopia na Somalia, Ethiopia imejihusisha ktk masuala ya somalia kabla hata mambo ya jumuiya hayajajitokeza hivyo mtu hawezi kusema ushiriki wa Ethiopia ni dalili kuwa wanafikiria kujiunga na EAC.
Halafu kwa mtu yeyote anayeifahamu vizuri Ethiopia hawezi kufikiri habari ya kujiunga EAC karibuni maana mfumo wa uchumi wa Ethiopia ni tofauti kabisa na mifumo ya chumi za EAC, role ya serikali ktk Ethiopia ni kubwa mno na si kazi rahisi kwa Ethiopia kukubali hizo protocols za EAC kama watu wanavyofikiria. Ethiopia ina model kama ya China lakini Ethiopia imekaza zaidi. Kwa kifupi Ethiopia inataka zaidi bilateral ties na EAC ili iweze kuaccess soko lakini si kuingia ktk jumuiya. Mwisho watz tujue kuwa maamuzi ya kuingia ktk jumuiya na kukubali au kukataa protocols ndani ya jumuiya yanatakiwa kufanywa kwa kuangalia pande zote sio faida za kiuchumi tu, ingekuwa hamna maslahi mengine zaidi ya uchumi basi dunia ingekuwa imeshaungana.

 

[IAfrika]

EAC Treaty haina kanuni za kutosha uzito unaoletwa na watu milioni 87. Maamuzi ya EAC Summit hufanywa na consensus, hii inamaanisha nchi ndogo ndani ya EAC kama Burundi iko na kura kiwango sawa na nchi kubwa kama Ethiopia. Sidhani kama Kenya na Tanzania itawakubalia kwa sababu Ethiopia haitakubali kuingia bila kuuliza special privileges. Ili Ethiopia waingie EA, itawabidi wangoje hadi katiba ya EA federation itakapopatikana, hiyo peke ndio ina uwezo wa kulinda haki za nchi kubwa na nchi ndogo ndani ya ushirikiano. Halafu kama ilivyo semwa Ethiopia iko na mtindo wake wa kufanya vitu, tamaduni zake, lugha na mfumo wake wa elimu hii inamaanisha italeta ushawishi wake EAC, ukiangalia idadi ya watu (87m), EAC yote itakuwa imemezwa hapo. Kama ni Kuingia, basi Ethiopia waingie pamoja na DRC (watu milioni 77) ilikuhakikisha usawa (equilibrium) kati ya Kaskazini na Kusini mwa Africa katika huu muungano. Kwa hayo machache ninaunga mkono kuongezeka kwa nchi za EAC kaskazini, kusini, mashariki na hata magharibi. Ahsante kwa conversatinally stimulating post.

 

[Yule-Msee]

Itakuwa vyema ikiwa Ethiopia yaweza join EAC lakini lazima tuelewe kuwa their socioeconomic makeup yao iko tofauti sana na ya wengine. Inchi ambayo itaweza kujifaidisha ni DRC, wakiingia EAC, mizozo kato yao na Rwanda na Uganda itakuwa kitu cha historia

 

[Prof]

For starters, a bigger market that would make the EAC more attractive to investors.
They would also help dilute the Kenya-TZ rivalry for dominance.

without TZ, the EAC becomes less meaningful and useless. desperation and frustration should not drag us to hell, by possiblizing the impossible. by letting Ethipia into EAC, will be serious mistake like committing a suicide

 

[Prof]

Hamna mkuu East African Eagle
Ukiangalia geography ya Africa DRC iko central afrika na siyo East Africa. Wako kwenye economic community of central african states (ECCAS). East Africa ni ETHIOPIA, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia na EAC ya sasa.
Besides, mimi kama mTZ nasupport sana hili suala. Tusilifikirie kwa angle ya wenzetu wana benefit nini ila kwa sisi Tanzania tunabenefit nini. Wewe ungekuwa mfanyabiashara ungelimind sana hilo soko la watu million 87.
Uhaba wa rasilimali Ethiopia umepelekea nchi hiyo kuendeleza sekta zake hasa kilimo na utalii. Tunaweza tukacomplement each other! Ethiopia leo hii inajengwa hata KEnya wanaona aibu. Mji wa Addis Ababa una barabara za kisasa na kipekee kwa hapa EA. Kuna mradi wa kuzalisha 10000MW za umeme (grand renaissance dam). We huoni kama tatizo la umeme hapa EA litamalizika kama tukishirikiana na wenzetu?

I see, mkuu take a time na peruzi kidogo kuhusu ethipia.

Nchi za Africa Mashariki zina almost 2% benefit if Ethiopia will join EA-Community. hii inatokana na nchi hiyo kutokuwa na rasilimali za kutosha (Natural resources). almost 20 percent ya Ardhi ya Ethipia ndo hulimika tu. Ethipia haina madini kama dhahabu, almasi wala rubby kama nchi za EAC zilivyo. Uchumi wa Ethiopia unategemea secta 2 muhimu, Utalii na Air lines (Aviation industry). kila mwaka wa-Ethiopia mamia kwa maelfu wanaikimbia nchi yao ili kutafuta ahueni ya maisha katika nchi za kigeni. Nafikiri ni nchi inayoongoza kwa kuproduce Economic Refugee katika Africa.

unaongelea kuhusu soko kwenye population ya watu 87, lakini bila hata ya kuwa member wa EAC, still we can do business with them. kinachotupunza, sisi kama watz, ukitoamo Bakhressa, sijawahi kuona mkulima akienda kutafuta masoko ya mahindi zimbabwe, ethiopia wala Somalia. wengi tunataka tukilima tukamwuuzie Bakhressa ili naye aje kutuuzia unga, kutoka kwenye mahindi yetu wenyewe tuliyomwuuzia.

Tuna vyanzo vingi vya kuzalisha umeme mpaka kusaza, lakini tumekosa proper management kwenye natural resource zetu ili zilete tija kwa Taifa na Maendeleo kwa Ujumla.

Neither Ethiopia nor Southern Sudan are credible member to join EAC, since we dont share common History, let them remain what they are....

 

[msemakweli]

I see, mkuu take a time na peruzi kidogo kuhusu ethipia.

Nchi za Africa Mashariki zina almost 2% benefit if Ethiopia will join EA-Community. hii inatokana na nchi hiyo kutokuwa na rasilimali za kutosha (Natural resources). almost 20 percent ya Ardhi ya Ethipia ndo hulimika tu. Ethipia haina madini kama dhahabu, almasi wala rubby kama nchi za EAC zilivyo. Uchumi wa Ethiopia unategemea secta 2 muhimu, Utalii na Air lines (Aviation industry). kila mwaka wa-Ethiopia mamia kwa maelfu wanaikimbia nchi yao ili kutafuta ahueni ya maisha katika nchi za kigeni. Nafikiri ni nchi inayoongoza kwa kuproduce Economic Refugee katika Africa.

unaongelea kuhusu soko kwenye population ya watu 87, lakini bila hata ya kuwa member wa EAC, still we can do business with them. kinachotupunza, sisi kama watz, ukitoamo Bakhressa, sijawahi kuona mkulima akienda kutafuta masoko ya mahindi zimbabwe, ethiopia wala Somalia. wengi tunataka tukilima tukamwuuzie Bakhressa ili naye aje kutuuzia unga, kutoka kwenye mahindi yetu wenyewe tuliyomwuuzia.

Tuna vyanzo vingi vya kuzalisha umeme mpaka kusaza, lakini tumekosa proper management kwenye natural resource zetu ili zilete tija kwa Taifa na Maendeleo kwa Ujumla.

Neither Ethiopia nor Southern Sudan are credible member to join EAC, since we dont share common History, let them remain what they are....

Sio kweli.....Ethioipia pia inaongoza katika kuexport kahawa (coffee). sector yao ya kilimo iko juu pia. Nilisoma mahali eti Ethiopia is Africa's most developed non resource-rich country. I think that is a good thing. Na watakapojiunga EAC sio fully, tunaunda federal state (kama marekani) na siyo unitary state.
Na EAC itagain more than 2%, fikiri in terms of umeme na pia trade volumes. Kumbuka kuwa Ethiopia ni one of the fastest growing economies in the world! iliwahi hata kurankiwa mbele ya Kenya!

 

[CattleRustler]

But... what can they put on the table? or what do they have in common with us?and the same question applies to Sudan too.Guys i would like to have your perspective on this issue that matters to all of us.M/Mpamba/peace!

Are you serious you don't know what they can put on the table. I got four letter word for you. Girls, Girls, Girls

 

[nyumba kubwa]

Naomba unifafanulie uchumi waEtiopia unafanana nini na China ki mfumo? to me this is news...and I want to learn...

Binafsi naona Tanzania tutafute status kama ya UK ktk Umoja wa ulaya. Huyo Obbo ktk uchambuzi wake huwa anaoverlook sana mambo. Mfano anavyoiongelea Ethiopia anaona iko karibu mno kujiunga na EAC kisa eti kwasababu inaproject ya kutumia Lamu port na inashiriki kikamilifu ktk masuala ya usalama ktk somalia. Huyu mwandishi ameoverlook sana, kwanza Ethiopia imeanza kufikiria kutumia Lamu port kwasababu imekuwa landlocked na uhusiano na Eritrea ni mbovu, Djibout ni option nyingine na wako bize kujenga reli kwenda Djibout, sasa kwa mtu yeyote rational ni kuwa na alternative zaidi ya moja maana Djibout ni nchi isiyoaminika, iko influenced sana na mataifa ya nje ni rahisi Ethiopia kuwa victim.
Sasa kuhusu ushiriki wake ktk Somalia, kila mtu anajua historia ya Ethiopia na Somalia, Ethiopia imejihusisha ktk masuala ya somalia kabla hata mambo ya jumuiya hayajajitokeza hivyo mtu hawezi kusema ushiriki wa Ethiopia ni dalili kuwa wanafikiria kujiunga na EAC.
Halafu kwa mtu yeyote anayeifahamu vizuri Ethiopia hawezi kufikiri habari ya kujiunga EAC karibuni maana mfumo wa uchumi wa Ethiopia ni tofauti kabisa na mifumo ya chumi za EAC, role ya serikali ktk Ethiopia ni kubwa mno na si kazi rahisi kwa Ethiopia kukubali hizo protocols za EAC kama watu wanavyofikiria. Ethiopia ina model kama ya China lakini Ethiopia imekaza zaidi. Kwa kifupi Ethiopia inataka zaidi bilateral ties na EAC ili iweze kuaccess soko lakini si kuingia ktk jumuiya. Mwisho watz tujue kuwa maamuzi ya kuingia ktk jumuiya na kukubali au kukataa protocols ndani ya jumuiya yanatakiwa kufanywa kwa kuangalia pande zote sio faida za kiuchumi tu, ingekuwa hamna maslahi mengine zaidi ya uchumi basi dunia ingekuwa imeshaungana.

 

[nyumba kubwa]

At most tunaweza shirikiana kiuchumi tu...utaunda federation na authoritarian state?

Sio kweli.....Ethioipia pia inaongoza katika kuexport kahawa (coffee). sector yao ya kilimo iko juu pia. Nilisoma mahali eti Ethiopia is Africa's largest non resource-rich country. I think that is a good thing. Na watakapojiunga EAC sio fully, tunaunda federal state (kama marekani) na siyo unitary state.
Na EAC itagain more than 2%, fikiri in terms of umeme na pia trade volumes. Kumbuka kuwa Ethiopia ni one of the fastest growing economies in the world! iliwahi hata kurankiwa mbele ya Kenya!

 

[Kibona]

Naomba unifafanulie uchumi waEtiopia unafanana nini na China ki mfumo? to me this is news...and I want to learn...

Anyway sitaweza kueleza kila kitu kwa undani hapa, lakini nikutajie vitu vichache ambavyo utaweza kunielewa argument yangu:
Nilisema involvement ya serikali ktk uchumi wa Ethiopia ni kubwa sana kulinganisha na mataifa mengi ya Afrika kwa maana kuwa kwanza ktk mfumo wake wa fedha hauko huru Ethiopia benki huwa hazikopeshi moja kwa moja mikopo kwa wananchi ktk baadhi ya sector e.g real estate kama ilivyo kwa nchi za EAC hela ya benki za binafsi ambayo inataka kukopeshwa inapelekwa benki kuu halafu serikali ndiyo itasimamia mahitaji ya mwananchi husika, utaratibu huu wachina waliutumia sana miaka ya 1990 kurudi nyuma,
Kitu kingine thamani ya Birr ya Ethiopia inakuwa fixed na benki kuu, halafu hakuna maduka ya kubadilisha pesa ya binafsi ni mpaka benki na ukiwa Ethiopia unaruhusiwa kuuza sarafu za kigeni kama Euro, Dollar n.k ili upate Birr lakini huruhusiwi kuuza Birr ili upate Euro, Dollar n.k lakini pia ukiwa unataka kusafiri huruhusiwi kubeba cash ya sarafu za kigeni. Kwa maana nyingine ni kuwa wanalazimisha mtu atumie pesa ktk Ethiopia. Huu utaratibu walikuwa wanatumia pia china ila baada ya uchumi wao kuimarika sana wamelegeza baadhi ya mambo lakini bado wanafix thamani ya Yuan yao.
Halafu serikali ya china ilicapitalize ktk soko kubwa la ndani hivyo ilidhibiti flow ya bidhaa zinazotengenezwa nje huku ikipunguza gharama za uzalishaji hasa ktk Nishati na labour kwa upande mishahara na marupurupu na ili kufanikisha hilo serikali ya china mpaka leo hairuhusu vyama vya wafanyakazi, imeunda chama cha wafanyakazi kinachoongozwa na serikali. Ethiopia nayo inafanya hayo hayo Ethiopia labour ni cheap mishahara ni midogo ukilinganisha na nchi za EAC lakini na vitu pia ni bei chini kidogo (price ceilings ndio mpango Ethiopia), Ethiopia inarestrict sana bidhaa kutoka nje tofauti na majirani zake ila inahamasisha sana viwanda na ukiangalia kwasasa viwanda vya Ethiopia vimezidi kuimarika na kupata nguvu. Mwisho kwa ujumla ni kwamba ktk China na Ethiopia kuna serious intervention of the government ktk uchumi, kwahiyo si rahisi kudhani kuwa Ethiopia itajiunga EAC karibuni maana itatakiwa kumatch na protocols za EAC ambazo zinataka serikali zihamasishe free market economy miongoni mwa wanachama.

 

[Kibona]

Sio kweli.....Ethioipia pia inaongoza katika kuexport kahawa (coffee). sector yao ya kilimo iko juu pia. Nilisoma mahali eti Ethiopia is Africa's largest non resource-rich country. I think that is a good thing. Na watakapojiunga EAC sio fully, tunaunda federal state (kama marekani) na siyo unitary state.
Na EAC itagain more than 2%, fikiri in terms of umeme na pia trade volumes. Kumbuka kuwa Ethiopia ni one of the fastest growing economies in the world! iliwahi hata kurankiwa mbele ya Kenya!

Mie binafsi naziona faida za kiuchumi Ethiopia ikijiunga na EAC ila sioni hata kidogo kama Ethiopia inaweza kufikiri hivyo, lakini hata wakiamua kujiunga basi naona dalili za hata jumuiya kuvunjika maana najiuliza kama nchi kama Rwanda na Burundi zimewezesha kitu kama CoW (willing) na CoU (Unwilling), Ethiopia si ndio itakuja kujenga block ya kuvunja jumuiya kabisa, maana tutafika mahali tujadili ni Kalenda gani tutumie rasmi, Ethiopian Kalender au Gregorian Kalender!

 

[nyumba kubwa]

Thanks...ingawa bado nina maswali...hao investors inakuwaje wanakuwa attracted na nchi ambayo uchumi hauko liberalized? ambayo serikali ela yake haiachwi ku float kwenye soko?

Kuna mahali nilisoma kuwa Ethiopia ni moja kati ya nchi chache za Africa zenye higher bargaining capital (if I remember the term) when it comes to aid...mwandishi alikuwa na maana wana uwezo mkubwa wa kunegoptiate autonomy na matumizi ela ya donor kuliko nchi nyingi za Africa including Tz...wakati ni authoritarian state...na hii ndio imewafanya wasonge...yani wao hawaamuliwi...Ila hawaku mention kuwa ina mfumo kama wa China ingawa hiyo kazi ilikuwa juu ya China in Africa....

Maana jiulize Tz ingeamua kuwa na mfumo kama wa Ethiopia what would have happened...yani ana kibezi kwa wafadhili ambacho nchi nyingi hazina...ntasoma tena nijue sababu alizotoa huyu jamaa...

Ila kwa kumbukumbu yangu aliyeandika hili hakugusia capacity ya wa Ethiopia...mimi nadhani wa Ethiopia ni watu wenye akili sana...wametapakaa kote duniani and they are doing real well kwenye masomo ya calculations kama uchumi and the like....

Sasa huwezi dai autonomy when you can't formulate your own plan and execute successifully...ndio maana tunaletewa tu MKUKUTA...siju MKRABITA unakuta program moja ina apply nchi zote kuanzia Africa Asia hadi Latin...na zote zina feli

Anyway sitaweza kueleza kila kitu kwa undani hapa, lakini nikutajie vitu vichache ambavyo utaweza kunielewa argument yangu:
Nilisema involvement ya serikali ktk uchumi wa Ethiopia ni kubwa sana kulinganisha na mataifa mengi ya Afrika kwa maana kuwa kwanza ktk mfumo wake wa fedha hauko huru Ethiopia benki huwa hazikopeshi moja kwa moja mikopo kwa wananchi ktk baadhi ya sector e.g real estate kama ilivyo kwa nchi za EAC hela ya benki za binafsi ambayo inataka kukopeshwa inapelekwa benki kuu halafu serikali ndiyo itasimamia mahitaji ya mwananchi husika, utaratibu huu wachina waliutumia sana miaka ya 1990 kurudi nyuma,
Kitu kingine thamani ya Birr ya Ethiopia inakuwa fixed na benki kuu, halafu hakuna maduka ya kubadilisha pesa ya binafsi ni mpaka benki na ukiwa Ethiopia unaruhusiwa kuuza sarafu za kigeni kama Euro, Dollar n.k ili upate Birr lakini huruhusiwi kuuza Birr ili upate Euro, Dollar n.k lakini pia ukiwa unataka kusafiri huruhusiwi kubeba cash ya sarafu za kigeni. Kwa maana nyingine ni kuwa wanalazimisha mtu atumie pesa ktk Ethiopia. Huu utaratibu walikuwa wanatumia pia china ila baada ya uchumi wao kuimarika sana wamelegeza baadhi ya mambo lakini bado wanafix thamani ya Yuan yao.
Halafu serikali ya china ilicapitalize ktk soko kubwa la ndani hivyo ilidhibiti flow ya bidhaa zinazotengenezwa nje huku ikipunguza gharama za uzalishaji hasa ktk Nishati na labour kwa upande mishahara na marupurupu na ili kufanikisha hilo serikali ya china mpaka leo hairuhusu vyama vya wafanyakazi, imeunda chama cha wafanyakazi kinachoongozwa na serikali. Ethiopia nayo inafanya hayo hayo Ethiopia labour ni cheap mishahara ni midogo ukilinganisha na nchi za EAC lakini na vitu pia ni bei chini kidogo (price ceilings ndio mpango Ethiopia), Ethiopia inarestrict sana bidhaa kutoka nje tofauti na majirani zake ila inahamasisha sana viwanda na ukiangalia kwasasa viwanda vya Ethiopia vimezidi kuimarika na kupata nguvu. Mwisho kwa ujumla ni kwamba ktk China na Ethiopia kuna serious intervention of the government ktk uchumi, kwahiyo si rahisi kudhani kuwa Ethiopia itajiunga EAC karibuni maana itatakiwa kumatch na protocols za EAC ambazo zinataka serikali zihamasishe free market economy miongoni mwa wanachama.

 

[Kibona]

Thanks...ingawa bado nina maswali...hao investors inakuwaje wanakuwa attracted na nchi ambayo uchumi hauko liberalized? ambayo serikali ela yake haiachwi ku float kwenye soko?

Kuna mahali nilisoma kuwa Ethiopia ni moja kati ya nchi chache za Africa zenye higher bargaining capital (if I remember the term) when it comes to aid...mwandishi alikuwa na maana wana uwezo mkubwa wa kunegoptiate autonomy na matumizi ela ya donor kuliko nchi nyingi za Africa including Tz...wakati ni authoritarian state...na hii ndio imewafanya wasonge...yani wao hawaamuliwi...Ila hawaku mention kuwa ina mfumo kama wa China ingawa hiyo kazi ilikuwa juu ya China in Africa....

Maana jiulize Tz ingeamua kuwa na mfumo kama wa Ethiopia what would have happened...yani ana kibezi kwa wafadhili ambacho nchi nyingi hazina...ntasoma tena nijue sababu alizotoa huyu jamaa...

Ila kwa kumbukumbu yangu aliyeandika hili hakugusia capacity ya wa Ethiopia...mimi nadhani wa Ethiopia ni watu wenye akili sana...wametapakaa kote duniani and they are doing real well kwenye masomo ya calculations kama uchumi and the like....

Sasa huwezi dai autonomy when you can't formulate your own plan and execute successifully...ndio maana tunaletewa tu MKUKUTA...siju MKRABITA unakuta program moja ina apply nchi zote kuanzia Africa Asia hadi Latin...na zote zina feli

Unajua mkuu dunia kwa sasa inaendeshwa na Multinational companies sasa haya yanaangalia ni wapi watakapo invest watamake profit na kucreate competitive advantage. Sasa mara nyingi bargaining power ya nchi hutegemea na ilicho nacho, ukiangalia kwanini makampuni mengi duniani yanakimbilia China, ni kwasababu kuna soko kubwa la ndani yaani watu zaidi ya 1.3 Billion, lakini pia cheap labour na nishati ni cheap kwahiyo hata kama kuna kero zingine mfano sheria zinabana sana kuliko kwingine lakini hayo makampuni yanaona bora yaende china maana at the end of the day watatengeneza profit zaidi. Sasa kwa Afrika hizo features za china zinaonekana Ethiopia walichokuwa wanakikosa ni Nishati lakini wakikamilisha hiyo project yao ya umeme wa Nile basi utaona kuwa kasi ya uwekezaji ktk viwanda hasa vya nguo utashoot sana maana wanalo soko kubwa zaidi Afrika ukiondoa Nigeria lakini pia production costs zitakuwa chini kulinganisha na mataifa mengine ya kiafrika.
Kwa upande wa nchi yetu Tanzania and the likes tumekosa utawala wenye committment, maana sio kwamba watu hawajui kuwa ili uipaishe Tanzania kiuchumi unatakiwa ufanye nini, bali tatizo ni kuwa viongozi hawataki kusimamia vizuri nchi kwasababu wanajua wakisimamia vizuri hata nafasi ya kuiba itakuwa hamna. Hivi mkuu inahitajika kujua economics na accounting kuweza kuona madhara ya kuwa na umeme unaokatikakatika na unaouzwa kwa bei ya juu? Je unadhani uongozi unaohujumu shirika la reli ili magari yao makubwa yapate tenda za kusafirisha mizigo ni kwasababu haujui calculations? Sie tunaweza tusiige model ya Ethiopia na china lakini tunaweza kupiga hatua kubwa kwa kuimarisha demokrasia na kufanya mambo yafanyike kwa uwazi na watu wawajibike kwa utendaji mbovu basi.

 

[msemakweli]

Are you serious you don't know what they can put on the table. I got four letter word for you. Girls, Girls, Girls

Hahahahahahahahaaaaa! You had to say it. Some of us were just quietly thinking about it!