Egotistical Orangutans - Lesson from Warren Baffet

[Logikos]

Warren Buffett, in his speech and later in his article in 1984 titled The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville, told his listeners to imagine all 215 Million Americans pair up and bet a dollar on the outcome of a coin toss. The one who calls the toss incorrectly is eliminated and pays his dollar to the one who is correct. The next day the winners pair off and play the same game with each other, each now betting $2. Losers are eliminated and that day's winner end up with $4. The game continues with a new toss at doubled stakes each day.

Ten days later, 220,000 people have called it right ten times in a row and won US$ 1,000.

Buffett writes –

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

After another ten days, there are 215 ‘survivors’ who have been right 20 times in a row and have each won US$ 1 million. By this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million.

…this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on “How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning.” Worse yet, they’ll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, “If it can’t be done, why are there 215 of us?”
By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise, the results would be much the same — 215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.

NB: In the days of get quick rich schemes, Stock Markets, Cryptocurrency, Betting Gurus, Forex; let's beware and ask ourselves ?' Are people winning by being lucky or they are geniuses / have found the Holy Grain; thus even we mere mortals can be taught and do what they might have done ?

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INFORMAL TRANSLATION:

Egotistical; excessively conceited or absorbed in oneself; self-centred. - ni kujiona / kujiamini kupita kiasi na orangutan ni hawa jamaa

View attachment 2597360

Hii story aliitoa mmoja wa magwiji wa kuwekeza katika Soko la Hisa Warren Buffet; akionyesha kwamba kwenye Soko la Hisa wale wanaobet kwenye kupanda na kushuka je wanaopatia ni sababu kuna kitu wanajua zaidi au inatokea tu katika wengi wanaokosa lazima kuna wachache watapatia...

Akatoa mfano wa kurusha sarafu watu wawili kila mmoja na dollar moja atakayeshinda anampa dollar mwenzake na yeye anatolewa kesho yake washindi wanashindana tena wawili wawili kwa mara mbili ya pesa; siku inayofuata hivyo hivyo baada ya siku kumi watu 220,000 walioshinda kila mmoja atakuwa na dollar 1,000; Hawa watu wataanza kujiona kwamba kuna kitu wanajua na ingawa huenda wasijikwaze sana ila kwenye matanuzi na mademu zao huenda wakaanza kujisifia...

Baada ya siku ishirini watu 215 watakuwa wameshinda dollar milioni moja kutoka kwenye dollar moja; watu hawa wataanza kuandika vitabu jinsi walivyotengeneza hizi pesa; wataanza kuita makongamano na kwa wale watakaosema ni bahati au ni ngumu kupatia shilingi ikirushwa mara 20 mfululizo watasema mbona sisi 215 tumeweza ?

Lakini msomi mmoja ambaye huenda amekerwa na kelele za hawa watu anaweza kusema mlichofanya nyie hata wangepewa masokwe 215 wangefanya kama mlivyofanya nyie.... 215 Egotistical Orangutans.....

Moral of the Story: Ingawa kuna wadau wameshinda mamilioni ya Sportspesa au Crypto au mwingine kupata sijioni milioni ngapi kwa siku kadhaa kwenye Forex - haimaanishi hilo jambo ni rahisi na kila mtu anaweza kuzipata (hata kitu kikiwa kigumu namna gani wakishiriki wengi lazima kuna wachache sana watashinda- though not for long)

 

[Mr simple M]

Mtu unajua kabisa lugha yetu apa Tanzania
Alafu unaleta vice versa

Jinga kabisa

 

[Logikos]

Mtu unajua kabisa lugha yetu apa Tanzania
Alafu unaleta vice versa

Jinga kabisa

Nina wasiwasi na uelewa wako; mawasiliano kati ya unachowaza na kukiandika.....

By the way ulitaka nitafsiri alichosema aliyesema wakati ninaweza kukitoa kama kilivyo ? (Au haujawahi kusikia kitu kinaitwa lost in translation). Kwa manufaa yako Lost in Translation ni (kupoteza maana iliyokusudiwa / uzito sababu ya tafsiri)

 

[Mr simple M]

Nina wasiwasi na uelewa wako; mawasiliano kati ya unachowaza na kukiandika.....

By the way ulitaka nitafsiri alichosema aliyesema wakati ninaweza kukitoa kama kilivyo ? (Au haujawahi kusikia kitu kinaitwa lost in translation) Kwa manufaa yako (kupoteza maana iliyokusudiwa / uzito sababu ya tafsiri)

Mkuu tusaidie kutafasiri ili tuelewe na
Kama hoja ni lost in meaning basi ungeweka article original na kisha ukaitafasiri kwa chini

Ili bandiko linufaishe wote?

Naomba kuwasilisha.

 

[Logikos]

Mkuu tusaidie kutafasiri ili tuelewe na
Kama hoja ni lost in meaning basi ungeweka article original na kisha ukaitafasiri kwa chini

Ili bandiko linufaishe wote?

Naomba kuwasilisha.

Egotistical; excessively conceited or absorbed in oneself; self-centred. - ni kujiona / kujiamini kupita kiasi na orangutan ni hawa jamaa

Hii story aliitoa mmoja wa magwiji wa kuwekeza katika Soko la Hisa Warren Buffet; akionyesha kwamba kwenye Soko la Hisa wale wanaobet kwenye kupanda na kushuka je wanaopatia ni sababu kuna kitu wanajua zaidi au inatokea tu katika wengi wanaokosa lazima kuna wachache watapatia...

Akatoa mfano wa kurusha sarafu watu wawili kila mmoja na dollar moja atakayeshinda anampa dollar mwenzake na yeye anatolewa kesho yake washindi wanashindana tena wawili wawili kwa mara mbili ya pesa; siku inayofuata hivyo hivyo baada ya siku kumi watu 220,000 walioshinda kila mmoja atakuwa na dollar 1,000; Hawa watu wataanza kujiona kwamba kuna kitu wanajua na ingawa huenda wasijikwaze sana ila kwenye matanuzi na mademu zao huenda wakaanza kujisifia...

Baada ya siku ishirini watu 215 watakuwa wameshinda dollar milioni moja kutoka kwenye dollar moja; watu hawa wataanza kuandika vitabu jinsi walivyotengeneza hizi pesa; wataanza kuita makongamano na kwa wale watakaosema ni bahati au ni ngumu kupatia shilingi ikirushwa mara 20 mfululizo watasema mbona sisi 215 tumeweza ?

Lakini msomi mmoja ambaye huenda amekerwa na kelele za hawa watu anaweza kusema mlichofanya nyie hata wangepewa masokwe 215 wangefanya kama mlivyofanya nyie.... 215 Egotistical Orangutans.....

Moral of the Story: Ingawa kuna wadau wameshinda mamilioni ya Sportspesa au Crypto au mwingine kupata sijioni milioni ngapi kwa siku kadhaa kwenye Forex - haimaanishi hilo jambo ni rahisi na kila mtu anaweza kuzipata (hata kitu kikiwa kigumu namna gani wakishiriki wengi lazima kuna wachache sana watashinda- though not for long)

 

[Mr simple M]

Egotistical; excessively conceited or absorbed in oneself; self-centred. - ni kujiona / kujiamini kupita kiasi na orangutan ni hawa jamaa

View attachment 2597360

Hii story aliitoa mmoja wa magwiji wa kuwekeza katika Soko la Hisa Warren Buffet; akionyesha kwamba kwenye Soko la Hisa wale wanaobet kwenye kupanda na kushuka je wanaopatia ni sababu kuna kitu wanajua zaidi au inatokea tu katika wengi wanaokosa lazima kuna wachache watapatia...

Akatoa mfano wa kurusha sarafu watu wawili kila mmoja na dollar moja atakayeshinda anampa dollar mwenzake na yeye anatolewa kesho yake washindi wanashindana tena wawili wawili kwa mara mbili ya pesa; siku inayofuata hivyo hivyo baada ya siku kumi watu 220,000 walioshinda kila mmoja atakuwa na dollar 1,000; Hawa watu wataanza kujiona kwamba kuna kitu wanajua na ingawa huenda wasijikwaze sana ila kwenye matanuzi na mademu zao huenda wakaanza kujisifia...

Baada ya siku ishirini watu 215 watakuwa wameshinda dollar milioni moja kutoka kwenye dollar moja; watu hawa wataanza kuandika vitabu jinsi walivyotengeneza hizi pesa; wataanza kuita makongamano na kwa wale watakaosema ni bahati au ni ngumu kupatia shilingi ikirushwa mara 20 mfululizo watasema mbona sisi 215 tumeweza ?

Lakini msomi mmoja ambaye huenda amekerwa na kelele za hawa watu anaweza kusema mlichofanya nyie hata wangepewa masokwe 215 wangefanya kama mlivyofanya nyie.... 215 Egotistical Orangutans.....

Moral of the Story: Ingawa kuna wadau wameshinda mamilioni ya Sportspesa au Crypto au mwingine kupata sijioni milioni ngapi kwa siku kadhaa kwenye Forex - haimaanishi hilo jambo ni rahisi na kila mtu anaweza kuzipata (hata kitu kikiwa kigumu namna gani wakishiriki wengi lazima kuna wachache sana watashinda- though not for long)

Ningekosa madini yote just because of language barrier

100% true kumekuwa na maelfu ya vitabu eti vinafundisha forex wakati kiuhalisia haona mjanja zaidi ya bahati tu

Ombi langu la mwisho kwako Mkuu Logikos uipandishe hiyo tafadhali ya kiswahi pale juu ya uzi mama

Vijana wanatapelia sana ati wafundishwe kupatia mara 215 zote.

 

[Mr simple M]

Egotistical; excessively conceited or absorbed in oneself; self-centred. - ni kujiona / kujiamini kupita kiasi na orangutan ni hawa jamaa

View attachment 2597360

Hii story aliitoa mmoja wa magwiji wa kuwekeza katika Soko la Hisa Warren Buffet; akionyesha kwamba kwenye Soko la Hisa wale wanaobet kwenye kupanda na kushuka je wanaopatia ni sababu kuna kitu wanajua zaidi au inatokea tu katika wengi wanaokosa lazima kuna wachache watapatia...

Akatoa mfano wa kurusha sarafu watu wawili kila mmoja na dollar moja atakayeshinda anampa dollar mwenzake na yeye anatolewa kesho yake washindi wanashindana tena wawili wawili kwa mara mbili ya pesa; siku inayofuata hivyo hivyo baada ya siku kumi watu 220,000 walioshinda kila mmoja atakuwa na dollar 1,000; Hawa watu wataanza kujiona kwamba kuna kitu wanajua na ingawa huenda wasijikwaze sana ila kwenye matanuzi na mademu zao huenda wakaanza kujisifia...

Baada ya siku ishirini watu 215 watakuwa wameshinda dollar milioni moja kutoka kwenye dollar moja; watu hawa wataanza kuandika vitabu jinsi walivyotengeneza hizi pesa; wataanza kuita makongamano na kwa wale watakaosema ni bahati au ni ngumu kupatia shilingi ikirushwa mara 20 mfululizo watasema mbona sisi 215 tumeweza ?

Lakini msomi mmoja ambaye huenda amekerwa na kelele za hawa watu anaweza kusema mlichofanya nyie hata wangepewa masokwe 215 wangefanya kama mlivyofanya nyie.... 215 Egotistical Orangutans.....

Moral of the Story: Ingawa kuna wadau wameshinda mamilioni ya Sportspesa au Crypto au mwingine kupata sijioni milioni ngapi kwa siku kadhaa kwenye Forex - haimaanishi hilo jambo ni rahisi na kila mtu anaweza kuzipata (hata kitu kikiwa kigumu namna gani wakishiriki wengi lazima kuna wachache sana watashinda- though not for long)

Ningekosa madini yote just because of language barrier

100% true kumekuwa na maelfu ya vitabu eti vinafundisha forex wakati kiuhalisia haona mjanja zaidi ya bahati tu

Ombi langu la mwisho kwako Mkuu Logikos uipandishe hiyo tafadhali ya kiswahi pale juu ya uzi mama

Vijana wanatapelia sana ati wafundishwe kupatia mara 215 zote.

 

[Logikos]

Warren Buffet aliendelea kusema; kwamba kama hao Orangutans wote watakaoshinda wapo sehemu moja tuseme Hifadhi ya Wanyama moja lazima tuanze kuhoji labda wanafundishwa mafunzo fulani, au chakula wanachokula au jambo lolote linawafanya wawe bora kuliko wenzao.... (Akimaanisha kwamba kwa wale wanaoshinda mara kwa mara huenda sio bahati ila kuna kitu wanajua kuliko wenzao)

Mimi nasema kama wote wanaoshinda wapo sehemu moja tu taanza kujiuliza labda wana-cheat yaani kuna mbinu wanatumia ambayo inawa-favor..., Sisemi kwamba haya mambo hayawezekani ila kwa wale wanaosema wanaweza kwa 80 - 90 Percent of the Time either wanatumia loop - holes ambazo wengine hatuna au inabidi tuwaangalia kwa makini; au siku yake ya kwenda Belly Up haijafika.....

Na ukimchunguza Buffet anaamini ukichukua Portfolio ambayo ume-diversify (sio kutegemea kampuni au industry chache) na kufanya hivyo long term (sio get rich quick scheme) na kutumia Compound Investing (yaani faida unayopata una-reinvest) nadhani in long term utafanikiwa