Currency crises: Are we heading the Russian way?

Hili jina la professor limekuwa ni balaa!!
Professor wa IFM! Chuo cha mjini! Professor gani mkuu. Wameamua kujiita, ngoja tuone kama kweli wanastahili.
mkuu namaanisha Professor Beno Ndulu anaayehudumu pale BOT. maana kama pesa yetu inashuka thamani yeye anatakiwa kushauri na kuchukua action pale anapoweza. huwezi kutenganisha kushuka kwa thamani ya hela na Gavana wa central bank.
 

Well, but the value of our shilling against USD was depreciating even before donors decided to postpone disbursing aid (According to Mwigulu, they have actually resumed disbursing aid. So, the moratorium was too short to have any serious effect?). That is our currency was depreciating even when we had something to "fill in the gap". No?
 
Friend, our shilling was only gradually depreciating - the shilling had depreciated by around 60 shillings or around 3.7% which can be explained by economic fundamental D I.e. current account deficit and inflation differential.


The MoF did not lie but mislead the public. The funds disbursed were from last year budget. This was later clarified by the donors.
 

I am not exactly sure that I understand what you are saying. Are you saying donors are now working on 2013/14 budget i.e last year budget? Who exactly did the clarification?
 
Leo Dollar imeshafikia 1805 kutoka 1600 ilipokuwa miezi kama 3 nyuma.

Ni shida
Poleni sana wa TZ wenzangu!hiki ni kitu kikubwa sana kinachotokea kwa kawaida governor wa BOT angengekwisha waita press na kuelezea pia kutoa tamko nini kama benki kuu ku combert hii hali,lakini hawa jamaa hawajali so long as wako bussy kushibisha matumbo yao na familia zao,mungu ibariki TZ
 
I am not exactly sure that I understand what you are saying. Are you saying donors are now working on 2013/14 budget i.e last year budget? Who exactly did the clarification?
Yes some funds for the previous budget were yet to be disbursed.
 

But, BoT has been partcipating in the IFEM and selling USD almost everyday.is that not intervation you are talking about??
 
Yes some funds for the previous budget were yet to be disbursed.

So, they postponed disbursing funds/GBS for 2014/15 (due to escrow scandal) but continued to clear unmet commitments from 2013/2014? Is that how it works? Who is implementing 2013/14 budget now? Weird. Btw, who exactly from the donor community did the clarification you are referring to?
 
Cv ya wazir wa fedha yule mama tunaijua what do you expect???? mtu amesoma vyuo vya kuunga unga kama vya kule bugurun kwa mnyaman mnategema ataelewa mambo ya depreciation!!!

Kikwete enjoys working with the mediocre, there is no fit and proper requirements.
 
Nope. What you need to understand is that Tanzania monetary policy targets money supply and therefore selling a small amount of dollars is a way of.mopping up excess liquidity. They use othet avenues too like t bills and repo.
 

Its a fact that USD is appreciating against all major currencies in the word. The US economy is doing very well by now, thats why we cant observe the impact oil prices.This is not only in Tanzania but all over
 
Its a fact that USD is appreciating against all major currencies in the word. The US economy is doing very well by now, thats why we cant observe the impact oil prices.This is not only in Tanzania but all over
My friend no one is complaining about simply depreciation. The issue is the pace of depreciation . There is no justification under normal economic fundamentals for the shilling to depreciate by 12 percent on an annual basis and 6 percent since the start of the year. The main reason as stated earlier is the withholding of donor support.
 

Mi nadhani hizi ndizo uzi ambazo Mh.Naibu Mwigulu Nchemba anatakiwa unatakiwa uje uzitolee majibu na sio zile za kukanusha kupotea angani na helkopta kwa masaa sita.

Nitashangaa sana kama hoja ile ulijitokeza haraka sana kuitolea ufafanuzi lakini hii ya kuhusu uchumi wa nchi yetu utakaa kimya!
 
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You speak about the speed of depreciation,have you done any analysis on other major currencies, how about Malawi and Zambia? Donor withholding has never been a factor, We have enough reserves and even recently we got ENCB from china 300 USD, so donor fund is not a big deal
 
I have done my research more than you have. When I compare Tanzania with other EA currencies it is because the structure of the economies are similar. Even during yhe 2011 crises all three central banks acted simultaneously.

Malawi for your information and please go do your research are extremely dependent on donor aid and when the donors suspended aid inflation went of the roof and t bills were at double digit levels. The interbank market had no offers (if you know anything about trading).

Zambia have their own problems; it was the negative sentiment created by the previous president tax policies.

Where is the 300m? If they have enough reserves why dont they use it? Reserves are used in times of crises or mishavior of the exchange rate like in the case of kenya and Uganda.
 

Escrow effect!! How?
 
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