Utaipata hapa (http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000296087/Tanzania.pdf;jsessionid=3552D04F62DC88E5F322825033141DA9.srv-loc-dbr-com): Key strengths Broad political stability. President Kikwete and his ruling CCM party will remain the dominant political force. No significant threat to political stability is expected even if internal divisions are likely to grow in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Robust economic growth. Expected at around 7% in 2012 and 2013, real GDP growth could rise even more afterwards if large projects take off in the gas sector. A sustained improvement in growth in the agricultural sector would be required to drive Tanzanias development forward; ongoing commercial investment into the sector makes it possible. Poor energy and transport infrastructure will keep growth below potential but public investments in these two sectors are increasing. The importance of mining in the economy is growing currently driven by gold production, expected to be overtaken by hydrocarbons by 2015-16. The shilling is expected to remain fairly stable as inflation moderates and monetary policy stays tight. Key weaknesses Increased external debt. External debt has risen in USD terms, as the government continues to borrow to finance a large fiscal deficit and an ambitious development programme - mostly from multilateral lenders. The external debt ratio to exports is high and has significantly increased. The ratio of debt to GDP, in contrast, is fairly low at 37% of GDP. High fiscal deficit. Fiscal discipline has slipped in recent years. The deficit is forecast at 6.3% of GDP in 2012/13. Curtailing recurrent spending and expanding the domestic revenue base, partly by scaling back tax exemptions, may lead to a reduction of the deficit in 2014/15. Large current account deficit. The current account deficit is very large, forecast at around 10.5% of GDP in 2012-2013, and FDI coverage is low. The trade deficit is high and may widen again in 2013 as import growth picks up on the back of strong demand for capital goods. External accounts are vulnerable to drought: since Tanzania remains dependent on hydroelectric power, low water levels drive an increase in fuel imports, which typically make up around 20%-30% of total imports. High inflation. Inflation remains in double-digits (forecast to average 15.3% in 2012), although after increasing sharply in the latter half of 2011 (largely driven by food and fuel prices), it has moderated since the start of 2012 and may continue to decline in 2013. Nahisi hata katika hizo strength mbili zilizo tajwa kuna moja ambayo imeanza kucheza.