Yesha
Senior Member
- Jan 28, 2026
- 138
- 64
Zimbabwe is heading into the 2026/27 agricultural season with a major climate risk hanging over one of the country's most important economic sectors.
The Meteorological Services Department says the coming season is likely to be influenced by El Niño, with below-normal rainfall expected across much of Zimbabwe from October to December 2026 and again from January to March 2027. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected during the first three months of the season.
For Zimbabwe, this is more than a weather story.
Agriculture is deeply connected to household incomes, food supplies, employment, manufacturing and exports.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs describes agriculture as the backbone of Zimbabwe's economy. Government figures say the sector provides livelihoods for about 70% of the population, supplies roughly 60% of industrial raw materials and accounts for about 45% of exports.
Using Zimbabwe's current population of roughly 16 million, the 70% figure translates to approximately 11 million people whose livelihoods are linked to agriculture.
That does not mean 11 million people will necessarily lose their livelihoods if rainfall is poor. Rather, it shows the scale of the population exposed to disruption in the agricultural economy.
There are also around 1.5 million smallholder farming households identified as a major target of Zimbabwe's agricultural development programmes.
With the 2022 census putting the average household size at four people, those households alone represent roughly 6 million people.
During the 2023/24 El Niño drought, agricultural output contracted sharply. FAO estimates that the sector contracted by 18.1% in 2024, largely because of the drought, before rebounding strongly in 2025.
The 2024 drought also left millions of Zimbabweans facing food insecurity. An analysis of the previous El Niño drought reported that more than 7 million people were left without enough food at the height of the crisis.
The impact extends beyond farmers.
A poor harvest can mean less maize and other food available locally, greater reliance on imports, pressure on food prices and lower incomes for people working throughout the agricultural value chain.
Livestock farmers are also exposed. During the previous drought, livestock losses and deteriorating grazing conditions placed additional pressure on rural households.
The importance of agriculture does not stop at the farm gate.
Government estimates that around 60% of industrial raw materials come from agriculture. This creates a chain linking rainfall to farmers, food processors, manufacturers, transporters, traders and consumers.
So when agricultural production falls, the shock can move through the wider economy.
That is why the 2026/27 rainfall outlook is being treated by government as a national economic and food-security issue rather than simply a farming problem.
The measures include:
Government's 2026 plans include expanding irrigation, with the broader target of increasing functional irrigable land to 350,000 hectares by 2030. The 2026 Budget allocated ZiG823.8 million towards irrigation development.
The Ministry says there were about 233,000 hectares of irrigated agricultural land available for cropping as of early 2026.
Government is also encouraging farmers in the drier Natural Regions III, IV and V to increase production of traditional grains such as sorghum and millet, which are generally better suited to dry conditions than maize.
It is also promoting drought-tolerant and early-maturing varieties through programmes such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa.
More recently, Government said it would tighten the distribution of agricultural inputs, prioritising farmers who have completed land preparation ahead of the 2026/27 season.
Climate change is altering the conditions under which agriculture operates, while El Niño can add another major shock on top of that longer-term trend.
The MSD's current outlook itself warns of warmer temperatures alongside poor and erratic rainfall.
That makes irrigation, water harvesting, drought-resistant crops, livestock management, climate information and early warning increasingly important.
The question for Zimbabwe is therefore not only whether the rains will come.
It is whether an economy in which about 11 million people's livelihoods are linked to agriculture can continue to withstand increasingly frequent and severe climate shocks.
The Meteorological Services Department says the coming season is likely to be influenced by El Niño, with below-normal rainfall expected across much of Zimbabwe from October to December 2026 and again from January to March 2027. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected during the first three months of the season.
For Zimbabwe, this is more than a weather story.
Agriculture is deeply connected to household incomes, food supplies, employment, manufacturing and exports.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs describes agriculture as the backbone of Zimbabwe's economy. Government figures say the sector provides livelihoods for about 70% of the population, supplies roughly 60% of industrial raw materials and accounts for about 45% of exports.
Using Zimbabwe's current population of roughly 16 million, the 70% figure translates to approximately 11 million people whose livelihoods are linked to agriculture.
That does not mean 11 million people will necessarily lose their livelihoods if rainfall is poor. Rather, it shows the scale of the population exposed to disruption in the agricultural economy.
There are also around 1.5 million smallholder farming households identified as a major target of Zimbabwe's agricultural development programmes.
With the 2022 census putting the average household size at four people, those households alone represent roughly 6 million people.
The warning signs are already familiar
Zimbabwe has experienced the economic consequences of drought before.During the 2023/24 El Niño drought, agricultural output contracted sharply. FAO estimates that the sector contracted by 18.1% in 2024, largely because of the drought, before rebounding strongly in 2025.
The 2024 drought also left millions of Zimbabweans facing food insecurity. An analysis of the previous El Niño drought reported that more than 7 million people were left without enough food at the height of the crisis.
The impact extends beyond farmers.
A poor harvest can mean less maize and other food available locally, greater reliance on imports, pressure on food prices and lower incomes for people working throughout the agricultural value chain.
Livestock farmers are also exposed. During the previous drought, livestock losses and deteriorating grazing conditions placed additional pressure on rural households.
Agriculture is also an industrial story
The importance of agriculture does not stop at the farm gate.
Government estimates that around 60% of industrial raw materials come from agriculture. This creates a chain linking rainfall to farmers, food processors, manufacturers, transporters, traders and consumers.
So when agricultural production falls, the shock can move through the wider economy.
That is why the 2026/27 rainfall outlook is being treated by government as a national economic and food-security issue rather than simply a farming problem.
What is Government doing?
The Government has already announced a six-pillar response to the expected El Niño conditions.The measures include:
- Strengthening strategic grain reserves
- Expanding climate-smart agriculture
- Increasing agricultural financing
- Protecting livestock from drought
- Preparing for food imports if necessary
- Strengthening early-warning systems and coordination.
Government's 2026 plans include expanding irrigation, with the broader target of increasing functional irrigable land to 350,000 hectares by 2030. The 2026 Budget allocated ZiG823.8 million towards irrigation development.
The Ministry says there were about 233,000 hectares of irrigated agricultural land available for cropping as of early 2026.
Government is also encouraging farmers in the drier Natural Regions III, IV and V to increase production of traditional grains such as sorghum and millet, which are generally better suited to dry conditions than maize.
It is also promoting drought-tolerant and early-maturing varieties through programmes such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa.
More recently, Government said it would tighten the distribution of agricultural inputs, prioritising farmers who have completed land preparation ahead of the 2026/27 season.
But the bigger question is resilience
Zimbabwe's challenge is becoming increasingly difficult to frame as simply “wait for the rains”.Climate change is altering the conditions under which agriculture operates, while El Niño can add another major shock on top of that longer-term trend.
The MSD's current outlook itself warns of warmer temperatures alongside poor and erratic rainfall.
That makes irrigation, water harvesting, drought-resistant crops, livestock management, climate information and early warning increasingly important.
The question for Zimbabwe is therefore not only whether the rains will come.
It is whether an economy in which about 11 million people's livelihoods are linked to agriculture can continue to withstand increasingly frequent and severe climate shocks.
