This Scientist
Explains Why Israels
Iron Dome
Is Overrated
MIDDLE EAST ISRAEL ARMS
Patrick Tucker // July 18, 2014
The Iron Dome may have more
than a few cracks.
Israels claims about the anti-
rocket shields effectiveness,
specifically that it is able to
intercept 90 percent of the
rockets that Hamas has sent into
Israel, are tantamount to fraud
according to MIT science,
technology and national security
expert Ted Postol.
In a paper submitted to the
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists,
obtained prior to publication by
Defense One, Postol explains at
length the 90 percent number is
fetched from thin air.
Congress appears to have
bought it, however. On Tuesday,
following the breakdown of
ceasefire negotiations between
Israel and Hamas, a Senate panel
voted for $351.9 million in Iron
Dome funding next year, nearly
double the amount that the
Defense Department originally
requested for the weapon
system, which is a joint project of
Raytheon and the Israeli defense
contactor Rafael.
We looked at it and went back
and forth, we talked to the
Pentagon as well as [officials]
from Israel, and we believe,
particularly at this moment in
time, that this is a justified
expenditure, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-
Ill said, at the time.
It turns out, however, that a
simple smartphone alert
messaging app, the so-called
Color Red app, is doing much
more to save lives in Israel than
Iron Dome. Color Red recently
partnered with Yo to better
deliver real-time warnings of
incoming rockets.
Iron Dome works by shooting
interceptor missiles at the Hamas
rockets in flight, using radar
tracking and guidance. That
guidance is not working properly
and sending Dome interceptors
to less than optimal engagement
points. But thats not the only
problem. The interceptors dont
hit the Hamas rockets directly so
much as detonate in the air very,
very close to them. The
detonation is triggered by the
interceptor rockets Laser Fuse, a
beam (represented in blue in the
graph) that detects the position
of the 10 to 20 pound Russian-
made GRADs that Hamas shoots
into Israel.
A diagram showing an Iron
Dome missile and its Laser Fuse
targeting mechanism. Via
Ted Postol
Postols calculations show that
when the speed of the GRAD
rockets varies too much outside
of 1200 meters per second,
variations that the Laser Fuse
cant detect, front-on
engagements become less likely.
In all, head-on collisions probably
account for only 20 percent of
interceptor on GRAD
engagements. Thats key because
those engagements are
necessary in order to destroy the
incoming ordinance. Near
misses, tail and side hits wont
do the trick, says Postol.
If the Iron Dome interceptor hits
the back-end of the target-
artillery rocket, all that will
happen is damage to the
expended rocket motor tube,
which is basically an empty pipe.
Damaging the back-end of the
target-artillery rocket essentially
has no effect on the outcome of
the engagement. The pieces of
the rocket will fall in the
defended area and the warhead
will almost certainly go on to the
ground to explode,
writes Postol.
His paper shows that given low
engagement rate, low warheard
destruction rate and issues of
missing data, the actual success
rate for the Dome falls much
closer to a miserable 5 percent.
As shown in the performan
guesstimate, if we assum
the engagement geometry
and 20 percent of the
engagements were front-o
then at that time we estima
the probability of destroyin
GRAD warhead might be
between 0.3 and 0.6. Thus,
all other engagements
affectively resulted in a zero
probability of intercept, the
the intercept rate would
be roughly
0.2 × (0.3 or 0.6) = 0.06
to 0.12
Or an intercept rate, define
as destruction of the artiller
rocket warhead of between
and 12 percent. Our best
estimate is that less than 20
percent of the engagement
we were able to get data o
were actually front-on, and
have no information about
actual miss distances and
whether the engagement
attempt geometries were
close to antiparallel. Thus, t
statement the intercept
performance of Iron Dome
appears to be probably five
percent or less.
If thats the case, and Iron Dome
really is junk, why have Israeli
casualties from rocket attacks
been so low in the current round
of volleys, with only one civilian
casualty on the Israeli side?
Postol credits Israels early
warning system, which gives
Israelis 10 seconds or so of time
to seek shelter before a rocket
blast. The actual warning time
can be longer.
It also means that that a lot more
rockets are hitting buildings in
Israel than the government is
acknowledging. The proof of
those collisions is out there, says
Postol, and it will reveal itself in
the future in form of increased
insurance claims for property
damage. If the Israeli
government were eager to show
the Domes effectiveness, they
could just release verifiable
insurance claim numbers and put
the issue to bed, says Postol. But
The Israelis have been unable to
provide any evidence of any
reduction in ground damage that
would surely have to accompany
the amazing success rates that
they have been claiming.
When asked if he believed that
the Israeli government is
deliberately perpetrating an act
of fraud against the American
people, he answered simply that
the facts on the ground do bear
out that interpretation of events.
Theyre taking advantage of the
predilection of Americans to
support them
Its ultimately
disrespectful to the American
people, he told Defense One.
If Postol is right, the Dome isnt
just an expensive canard of
smoke and mirrors, its also
undermining the very technology
thats keeping Israelis alive.
Warning systems like Color Red
cant work if the people of Israel
are putting their faith in
fantasy protection.
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