Ndugu Tindo,
By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu:
Ukawa watashindwa kwa sababu hizi:
- zitto
-kutokupata wapiga kura wapya🙁new voters)
-Tamaa za viongozi wa Ukawa
UKAWA hawatashindwa sababu ya CCM:
Ndugu Tindo,
By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu:
Ukawa watashindwa kwa sababu hizi:
- zitto
-kutokupata wapiga kura wapya🙁new voters)
-Tamaa za viongozi wa Ukawa
UKAWA hawatashindwa sababu ya CCM:
Kweli wewe ni simple, unakataa chaguzi za serikali kama sio factor? Wakati hii ndio working force ya GE? Halafu unasema UKAWA haina wapiga kura wapya? Kwa kigezo kipi? Serikali za mitaa ya 2009 na ya 2014 ikoje? Waliopigia kura UKAWA sio wapya? Na tamaa za viongozi wa UKAWA zinahusiana vipi na uchaguzi? Kama hamuna critical analysis bora mkae kimya.
I have doubts with point number 2 and 3.
Its impossible to challenge Mbowe at Chadema, nobody will dare to do it,,not Lissu not Mnyika. They have seen and learnt what happens when you do it: Lets be honest there:Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema,period:
Popularity of Chadema in Kigoma has been after their people.( Kaborou and Zitto). You can see already why ACT is gaining popularity there,,sababu they support their own.
Follow closely political history of Ruto and that of Zitto, similarities are clearly there🙁 Political Confidence)
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.
Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.
As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.
Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.
After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.
Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.
UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.
Lets look at 2010 election numbers:
Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:
5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000
From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.
CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.
If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.
My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters
CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million
This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:
Simple It is too low. The biggest problem you have, is to believe in Zitto only.
Political populality of Zitto continued to go down as far as Zitto dissociated from CHADEMA. CHADEMA now is the Best political platform in Tanzania mainland as the same as CUF in Zanzibar. Even Zitto knew that.
Zitto is nothing to UKAWA thus why UKAWA doesnot pay any political attention to him. In short Zitto has lost the regitimacy before the General Election, he doesnot sure which constituency he will win when he will compete in this year General election. He desperates.
You must be naive enough to compare Kenya's political environment to Tanzania's one. Kenya's politics is inherently based on tribalism and regionalism,that's where Ruto's political force originated, Zitto?I can't say the same about him.
UKAWA SIO CHAMA CHA SIASA: ( Umoja wa KAtiba ya Wananchi),,lengo lao ni kupinga katiba pendekezwa,,sio kumtoa CCM madarakani:
RUZUKU za kampeni siku zote uleta matatizo kwenye Upinzani Tanzania. Hizo ndo tamaa ninazozizungumzia mimi.
Tatizo Chadema hawapendi kusikia wasiopenda kuyasikia hasa yenye ukweli kuhusu mwenendo wa mbio zao za magogoni. Zitto kabla ya Escrow si Zitto baada ya Escrow. October mtachoma mahindi kwa tochi
Nielimishe niondoe ujinga wangu ndugu: UKAWA ni nini? Kwanini iliundwa?
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.
Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.
As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.
Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.
After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.
Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.
UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.
Lets look at 2010 election numbers:
Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:
5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000
From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.
CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.
If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.
My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters
CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million
This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:
Tatizo Chadema hawapendi kusikia wasiopenda kuyasikia hasa yenye ukweli kuhusu mwenendo wa mbio zao za magogoni. Zitto kabla ya Escrow si Zitto baada ya Escrow. October mtachoma mahindi kwa tochi
Kuna sheria ya matumizi ya statistics imepitishwa juzi.........Matumizi ya data zisizo rasmi ni makosa ya jinai(lazima ziwe zimepitishwa na TBS). Ukipatikana na hatia utakwenda segerea kwa 2 years.Mimi ni mfuasi wa Tanzania: Muumini wa haki na demokrasia. Tafadhari fanya analysis yako iliyo deep ili nijifunze kutoka kwako.
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.
Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.
As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.
Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.
After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.
Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.
UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.
Lets look at 2010 election numbers:
Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:
5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000
From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.
CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.
If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.
My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters
CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million
This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007: