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Why Kibaki will win 2nd term

Discussion in 'Kenyan News and Politics' started by Mkenya, Nov 14, 2007.

  1. M

    Mkenya Member

    Nov 14, 2007
    Joined: Mar 22, 2007
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    Something interesting to share:

    Let me from the outset say that I believe in the Steadman polls. I said it
    during the referendum, when Kibaki was leading and even today. Having said that, these polls don't give the whole story and the reason is simple.

    In the USA, as I said here a while ago, a candidate has to win a majority of the 538 electoral college votes (270) to be declared president. He doesn't need to win the popular vote as is the case with Al Gore in 2000. He won the popular vote by 500,000 but a few days ago, he won an even bigger prize.

    IN Kenya, you need to win 25% of 5/8 of all the provinces alongside the popular vote.
    What has baffled ODM according to these Steadman polls is that Kibaki had 25% in 7/8 of all the provinces with the exclusion of Nyanza of course.

    Back to my prediction.
    This election will be VERY CLOSE NO MATTER WHO WINS.

    To begin with, I'll make three assumptions which will set the context in which
    the elections will be held;

    1. Kalonzo joins ODM. Kibaki's goose is cooked.....political goose that is. THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE AND WILL NOT HAPPEN.

    2. Kalonzo joins PNU. Whereas this is probable, it is not possible but were it
    to happen, Kibaki wins.

    3. Things remain the way they are. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

    So, what happens then?

    In 2002, the turnout was about 56%. There were 10 million registered voters and about 5.6 million valid votes cast.According to the ECK, there are 14.2 registered voters today. Assuming that there'll be a heavy turnout, let's say 70%, and further assuming that all votes will be valid, there'll be about 10 million votes for the three presidential candidates.
    Let me also say something else. Kenya's voting is tribal. IT is just true and my
    prediction will have some of this tribal nonsense because that is how we vote.

    ================================================== =======

    Here we go: I'll begin by giving a prediction of each candidates base and then
    work outwards.

    Raila Odinga has the LUOs, Kalonzo has the KAMBAS and Kibaki has GEMA.
    Raila will get about 1.5 million Luo votes.
    Kalonzo will get 850,000 Kamba votes.
    Kibaki will get 4.0 million GEMA votes but I'll be conservative and give him 3.5

    Out of a total of 10 million total votes, they amass 5.85 million votes from
    their tribesmen leaving 4.15 million votes. These are the votes that make Kibaki and Raila wear the fez and Kanzus while wooing voters. Don't get me wrong, I know there are also GEMA, Luo and Kamba Muslims too but do I say.

    Out of 4.15 million votes, other presidential candidates among them Muiru get
    0.15 million votes leaving exactly 4 million votes to be vied for.
    Even before dissolving parliament, Kibaki has 25% of the total votes in the bag.

    'Ain't that something?'

    The 4 million votes from places other than their own bases will go like this:

    Kalonzo will get 600,000.

    That leaves 3.4 million votes for Raila and Kibaki.

    IN other words, Raila and Kibaki are running for 3.4 million votes while at the
    same time;
    1. maintaining their stronghold votes and

    2. Turning out their kinsmen in droves to go vote.

    To use the latest steadman polls, I'll give Raila 53% of the total votes.
    Infact, I'll be generous and give him 60% of the non GEMA, non Luo and non Kamba votes.

    60% of 3.4 million votes is 2.0 million.

    Therefore, Raila gets a total of 3.5 million total votes. Remember, Kibaki had
    3.5 million votes in 2002 with that massive NARC coalition and Uhuru had about 1.6 million votes.

    Total valid votes cast: 10 million.

    Kalonzos total votes: 1.5 million
    Raila's total votes 3.5 million.
    Do the maths. Figures and facts don't lie.

    Kibaki gets 4.85 million votes.

    Five more years!!!!!!!!!!

    Mwai Kibaki:........................... 4.85million

    Raila Odinga: ..........................3.50million

    Kalonzo Musyoka....................1.5 million

    Others:......................................0.15 millon


    Total valid votes cast...............10 million


    And everyone will scream murder murder Kibaki has rigged and there's no way he was going to win.Now, I know ODM will come out screaming ati everyone is defecting to ODM but so what? Kenyans aren't fools. They know what Kibaki has done and this kitu is secret ballot.

    See you in 2008 January and please keep this prediction and remind me when the votes are out.
  2. M

    MzalendoHalisi JF-Expert Member

    Nov 14, 2007
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    Good prediction! Well hata mimi nadhani Kibaki will get a 2nd term!
    What is the basis of your prediction! Politics- things sometimes do change tough!
    In Tz we dont not have tribal bases as in Kenya- Kikwete got 80% fom all over Tz.
  3. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

    Nov 14, 2007
    Joined: Nov 14, 2006
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    According to your predictions, it seems that all 10 million registered voters will cast their votes of which I doubt.

    The big questions are:

    1) Why 50% only casted their votes in the last election?

    2) What choice did they have in mind?

    3) Will they be convinced this time around?
  4. K

    Kalamu JF-Expert Member

    Nov 15, 2007
    Joined: Nov 26, 2006
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    A simpler and more accurate version goes like this:

    Nyanza - Raila
    Western - Raila
    Rift Valley - Raila
    Nairobi - Raila
    Central - Kibaki
    Eastern - Stevo Musyoka
    Northeastern (arid country) - Raila
    Coast/Mombasa, nakadhalika - Raila

    There is no way Kibaki is going to win this election short of stealing it.
  5. B

    BroJay4 JF-Expert Member

    Nov 15, 2007
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    in this election i don't think Kenyans gonna vote for president based on tribalism and regionalism.i think people want a good president,who gonna bring changes in the country.Raila has a very big chance to win this election,lets wait.
  6. T

    TKK Member

    Nov 15, 2007
    Joined: Oct 31, 2007
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    I am with you entirely on this one. Kibaki will be golfng come Jan 2008 kama kawaida while all the rest will be left screaming "wolf!" wondering just how did the bugger make it?

    Tinga Tinga/ Hummer etc(including the latest version of the biggest car)....... just got yourself some more time to work up a serious campaign, but do I say..

    Stevie... well don't have words for you
  7. Kenyan-Tanzanian

    Kenyan-Tanzanian JF-Expert Member

    Nov 15, 2007
    Joined: Nov 7, 2006
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    I am glad that you are back after your noticeable absence in the recent past.

    First I must say that the nuanced Mathematics presented here is ok. It is a possibility that even me, a professed supporter of ODM and Raila, accepts. There is afterall a general consensus in Kenya that streotypically speaking, many of the guys who will vote from PNU come from an ethnic community with impressive monetary skills and by proxy mathematical minds.

    However, I just have a few brain-teasers for you and once more by proxy, to the rest of the invincible Mount Kenya base (read GEMA and its wapambes) you so strongly present above.

    1. When will some people recognize that the Referendum results worked out for ODM precisely because of your kind of Mathematics (with its proud elevation of the demographics of GEMA)? PNU and its think-tank are working with this we-are-the-numerical-superiors- kind of attitude yet this logic bore no fruits for Kibaki at all but shame in 2005. remember waking up on the day after the Referendum with a map of Kenya on title page of all the newspapers in Kenya showing all seven provinces saying "NO" and the tiny (GEMA) province at the centre of the country saying "YES"? When will GEMA discover that Kenya is not about who you are numerically but about how much kidogo kidogos can jaza a kibaba??

    2. Dear Mkenya, what you forgot to say in your passionate breakdown is that while Kibaki has (exaggerated) 3.5 Million from Gema, Raila has the solid backing of his tribes (highly lowered) 1.5 Million, 0.9 million of Luhyas (in Western and its diasporas in R. Valley (80% Western province)and 1.6 (coastals, and Greater Rift Valley ie Kalenjins, Masais) which all amount to 4.0 million votes generally?

    So the accurate figures stand like:

    a) Raila 4.1something Million votes
    b) Kibaki 3.9 Million votes (your 3.5 + 0.4 Million from others)

    Kalonzo with the others will hassle for the remaining 2 million votes of the total you predict as 10 million votes.

    Rest assured that Kibaki will be very lucky to even raise 25% in five provinces.

    Lets agree that the day of the GEMA group's numerical hegemony are over. Its what the Raila team are calling "The Kenyan Awakening" that started with the humiliating election defeat.

    3. Why do you reckon that even mainstream Kibaki-friendly media are detecting a deep-seated sense of insecurity when it comes to the thorny issues of Kibaki-friendly parties under PNU dissolving themselves and all running under Kibaki's PNU? Its simple: These guys and it includes GEMA stalwarts like Kiraitu and Karua are no fools. They know the reality of Kibaki going down is so stark that they wouldnt want to gamble with it. Therefore if he goes down with PNU, so they think, let them have their own parties that can somehow negotiate for kickbacks a la Kombo's Ford Kenya under a Raila presidency (2008-2012) and an ODM dominated parliament.

    4. Lets wait and see but the writing is on the wall, you can read it if you take time to reckon that its not just Kenyans from Central Kenya that are politically shrewd these days. Other Kenyans have learnt from the best, they have learnt from GEMA itself and mark you they never rejected the 2005 Draft Constitution, they rejected GEMA and completely undermined your kind of mathematics that is based on the mythical demographic might of GEMA. Nebuchadnezzer in State House, Nairobi is running scared and as sure as the US appears to already hint, there will be a new man leading us into the New Year and the New Kenya. We, the Kenyans who respect even the smallest tribe of 10000people like the Ogieks and what their 10000votes can do. We will be singing Hallelujah as we did in 2005 as many under Kibaki intoxication sit in a pensive mood and wonder what next: what next under Raila? What next under the Bomas Constitution?

    5. Kibaki has GEMA ( Gikuyu, Embu, Merus)
    Raila has all the Luo votes (2nd largest group in Kenya according to Referendum voter turn-out, boosted further by 80% of the third, fourth, sixth and seventh tribes in Kenya) These are: the Luhyas, the Kalenjins, the Maasais and the Somalis/Coastal Arabs respectively. The 5th largest (Kisiis r backing Kibaki but may split with Magara backing ODM. The other 5th largest tribe, the Kambas are backing their own Kalonzo. To be honest, besides the accurate Kikuyu estimate of 2.8 million Kikuyus but about 1.6 eligible voters. Their kins the Merus and Embus combined, add upto 0.8 million on the higher side. 3.6 is a very good figure to work with.

    6. Allow me the honor of submitting that it is a bit egocentric to assert that only the GEMA parts of Kenya will turn out to vote in large numbers. Just as it is also haughty to think that only the solid vote of one region ( read tribe) can deliver political victory to a President who has spent the recent months literally begging Kenyans outside GEMA to vote for him ati on the basis of his development which is only really felt in his homeground and by his people. Besides having the laudable Free Primary education crafted by ODM Secretary General, Prof. Anyang Nyongo while he was still a Minister of Economic Planning (2002-2005), what else does Kibaki have to show to the Rest of Kenya? I am sure you will say things mathematical like Stock Exchange, GDP growths and even table splendind World-Bank tested statistics that will convince many but not the cheeky ODM supporters who are going to come out of their hovels in Western, Rift Valley, Coast, North Eastern, Nyanza, Nairobi to participate in the forthcoming David-Goliath duel with the Mighty GEMA.

    7. In fact if you really believe in the Steadman Opinion Poll Reports, as you submit you do, then you would have noticed that they are also steadily shifting research tacts, tools and methodologies to keep up with the throbbing pace of Kenya's highest stake election ever. They are definitely aware that voters in Kenya today are also fast advancing in tandem with the amoebic politics of the country. Needless then to say that although, in yesteryears ,the crowds thundering Raila's praises would have looked as just voteless idlers passing time, the obviously politically-charged referendum voting pattern exploded this myth in 2005. GEMA came out with all its artillery, the peasants of Kenya came out with a convinced mind and decided that Raila is right and Kibaki is wrong. The result of which was an internationally publicized humiliating political defeat for Kibaki and GEMA. Nothing has changed much and the embers of that people-centred defeat against the uaghty and mighty GEMA still flicker in those voters hearts. ODM is simply fanning the embers back to life and that explains the bushfire nature of their popularity across the country, transregionally and inter-ethnically.

    8. As Kibaki and his wapambes golf away in 2008 and beyond, we will be building Kenya from below. Building it as the majority of Kenya want it to be build: on the basis of their views enshrined on the pages of ODM's election manifesto, THE BOMAS DRAFT CONSTITUTION. The dream of GEMA writing a thick book entitled, "THE GEMA ROYAL HOUSE AND ITS UNCIVILIZED DOMINIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY KINGDOM OF MT KENYA" will remain just what they are......dreams.....on the rolling golf fields of Muthaiga, Rironi and other Central Kenya leisure spaces.

    9. I write from a small village in Bungoma called Kamkuywa. Our leaders, Kombo and Ford-Kenya, openly tell Kenyans they are supporting Kibaki to the last man. On the ground, they know that the people are with Raila. To save their own political skin they have invented a new Luhya term "Hufwala esuti" It simply means "wearing a 3-piece suit". Vote for a Ford Kenya MP (trouser), a Ford Kenya Councillor (Coat) and an ODM president (shirt). I wouldnt not be surprised if this is the same gospel being preached by Shirikisho to the ODM friendly electorate of Coast province allegedly backing Kibaki.

    10.This is precisely why, Mkenya, in our country Mathematics doesnt really hold the power of prophecy but more unacademic thinking based on popular feelings on the widest possible breadth of the Kenyan ground may.
  8. T

    TKK Member

    Nov 21, 2007
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    Hi all...

    just a thought that the recent times have deviated from the well known "fact" that Kenyans vote along tribal lines...

    There have been great feelings of discontent among the various tribes with their leaders. Am convinced that while the former rule applies for most of the middle-aged and senior population, the younger generation has awoken to a new era on how to get rid of harmful political propaganda (I tell you after the promise of 500,000 jobs......... and we're still jobless to date! we acha tu..)

    But its just a thought....

    Here's some of the people's perception on Agwambo...


    From: McDouglas Owino [mailto: mcowino@gmail. com]
    Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 11:26 AM
    Subject: Luos Abroad Call Raila's Lies

    Wajaluo Wenzangu,
    It is time for right-thinking Luos to speak. It is very unfortunate
    that a
    great lie is being told that all Luos are Raila damu and will vote as a
    block for him. This is coupled with the other lie that all Kenyans
    support ODM. I can openly tell you that Raila has next to no support
    in Canada and in some Luo stronghold back home. On his over-publicised
    visits here, he only managed to meet a handful of his supporters.

    It is time we made some facts clear. For starters, not all Luos follow
    Raila like sheep. As we talk now, residents of my home constituency,
    Rarieda, are the envy of the entire Luo land. From the time they voted
    Honorable Raphael Tuju in, they have seen the kind of development that
    only dream about come to their door step. For too long now, Luos have
    cheated that the only Moses who will deliver them to Canaan is an
    The success of Tuju's effort have torn that Jaramogi mystic into
    shreds. It
    is now clear that other Luos can lead. However, instead of working with
    them, Raila wants to finish them. Tuju has been hands-on in the setting
    of the Rarieda water project. Courtesy of the Internet, Raila can no
    hoodwink the rest of us abroad. How can we dismiss the picture we saw
    Tuju in a construction worker's overalls supervising the construction
    the water pipes?

    For over 40 years, luos have blindly followed the Odinga clan, and what
    they have to show for it? Nothing but abject poverty at the grass
    roots. In
    the meantime, he has been raking money in.There is no question that
    is the richest Luo in the world.Yet his supporters in Luoland and
    are some of the poorest people in Kenya. In a very curious twist that
    Luos can enlighten us on, while the likes of Kenyatta and Moi were
    out goodies, plots and money to the needy, poor Luos see nothing wrong
    handing over their meager earnings to Raila, all in the hope that once
    is president, he will magically transform Luoland into the garegd od
    Yet it is well known that Odingas have not brought an iota of
    in Luoland. Just compare Luoland to their neighboring Kisiiland. While
    Kisiis have never even had a president, their hard work and development
    conscious leadership is well-displayed by their stone houses with
    Now, visit Luoland and all you see are the same grass-roofed old round
    that Speke and Grant found in the late 1800's! Yet Raila feels no shame
    when he drives around there in his Sh 15 Million Hummer Military
    for show.

    In his selfish quest fo the presidency, Raila has been telling blatant
    lies, hoping that he can develop a momentum that will usher him into
    high office before the people realise his lies. By then it will be too
    late. Raila is a clever manipulator who is working on Kenyan's
    of being attracted by the grass on the other side of the river, the
    and any idea from abroad, and sometimes mistakenly clamoring for change
    the heck of change. We are therefore calling out his lies now:

    1. Raila's hatred of Kikuyus is a ploy. All he is doing is working up
    politics of the 1960's on the mindless Luo masses, yet Kenyans have
    busy building barriers across tribes. If he hated Kikuyus that much,
    could he let his son marry a Kikuyu just the other day? As Kenyans we
    seen the kind of bloodshed that tribal conflicts can lead to. Think of
    Rwanda genocide, Somali clan wars and the continuing massacre in
    Darfur region. Is this the kind of leadership Kenyans want? No!

    2. Majimbo is a concept that has never worked anywhere in the world.
    this goes back to the Jaramogi politics of 1960. At that time the pros
    cons of Majimbo were debated fair and square, and majimbo lost.
    Balkanisation of any country has never worked and one needs not look
    anyfuther than the Balkan states themselves. In the Euphoria of
    breaking up
    the USSR, majimbos and countries were formed along tribal lines. In
    that three years, these breakway countries realised their mistake and
    together and formed the CIS union. Do we have to break apart, kill each
    other, then regret later? From an economic point of view,and the fact
    in a true majimbo system, each jimbo would be allocated developemnt
    based on their contribution to the national kitty, what does Luoland
    to offer except dwiddling fish supplies? Raila did not raise a voice
    Moi killed the sugar, cotton and rice farming by allowing tax-free
    in fact he
    selfishly benefited from it.
    Raila's socialist ideas are outdated: Cuban's can't wait for Fidel
    to die. North Korea is a dirt-poor country stuck in a time-warp. The
    purpose of creating majimbo is to provide Raila with a fiefdom to lord
    once he leaves the presidency (assuming he gets it) in 2017.

    3. Raila killed the Constitution reforms. By cleverly buddling some
    contentious issues with the main agenda, Raila was able to hoodwink
    people into voting against proposed constitution reforms during the
    referendum. By now, Kenyans would be reaping from the benefits of those
    reforms. Can he tell us why we need a figurehead president, if the
    Minister will end up doing what the current president is doing?

    4. Raila cannot deliver a new constitution in 100 days. Simple logic. A
    constitution reform needs two-thirds majority vote in parliamennt.
    There is
    now way he can gather that in 100 days knowing the hatred he is
    The law requires a referendum and that cannot be done in 100 days.

    5. Raila's fight against corruption is a lie. While on the surface it
    look like Raila is out to fight corruption, the truth is that he has
    eating from the same corruption plate. This is precisely why he cannot
    touch those he has eaten with. A case in point is the Kisumu Mollasses
    plant. He was given this plant by Moi as a present for delivering Luo's
    Kanu. Then he cleverly cheated Luos to raise money to buy the plant,
    that he put in his pocket, and then allocated only 5% shares to them.
    rest of the 95% shares and the money he collected he kept for himself.
    he was clean and above board, shares for the plant should have been
    in the open market for all Kenyans to buy. He should have mobilised the
    various Luo organisations and groups to buy blocks of shares so that
    the simplest sugar cane farmer would have had a portion of even one

    6. Raila is selling the country to foreigners. Just the other day Raila
    announced that investors would flood into Kenya when he comes into
    power.What he didn't tell us is that he has been cutting deals with
    foreigners to sell them Kenyan assets and institutions one he comes
    power.That has been a major reason for his numerous trips abroad. This
    cannot be allowed. While Kenyans have demostrated a hunger to invest in
    stock market, Raila is selling us back to our old Colonisers. How can
    allow this?

    7. Raila is very vengeful. Another lie. Reacting to talk of his
    revenge on Moi and Kikuyus, Raila has responded that he will not
    Yet, when he was chased out by women in Meru ( for some reason reason
    seems to bring out the wrath of women!), he was later quoted saying
    those regions that don't vote for him will cry come December 29th.
    begs the question, if Raila won, would he be the President of Kenya or
    Nyanza? We read in the bible that "Vengeance is mine, says the
    is certaily not God. We cannot have a president hell-bent on revenge.
    saw how Moi devastated non-Kalenjins (including Raila) when he came in
    the idea of revenge.

    8. Secret MOUs have been signed. This is an open secret. With pro-arab
    support ,Raila has signed on to transform Kenya into a Muslim state,
    something that would put Kenya at loggerheads with our western donors
    partners. This pact is in addition to the creation of a Jimbo la Pwani,
    where a 10-mile wide strip along the Kenyan coast would be ceded,
    again, to
    the Sultans of the gulf, whole will then appoint Balala as Sultan. This
    will will result in the rest of Kenya being a land locked country.
    would levied on anything that comes through the port of Mombasa,
    foodstuff. Kenya is predominantly Christian, but with freedom of
    for everybody. We do not need religious bigotry to lead us into
    chaos like those in Afghanistan (Taribans), and Sudan (Sharia law).

    9. It is do or die for Raila. Even if that means bloodshed. Just the
    day, the papers had the picture of Raila inspecting a guard of honor.
    when did a private person in Kenya have a private army? Is this not a
    signal for his intended take over of power by force? How can Kenyans
    one man to lead us into bloodshed? We lost our fathers, mothers,
    sisters and children in the Coup he led in 1982. We say, Not Again!

    10. Raila is a Liar and Cannot be trusted. Very true. He tells lies
    that the Common Mwananchi has no way to verify the truth. Sometimes
    this is
    a deft trap to get into a name-calling contest with Kibaki. Recently,
    has been trying to woo the Muslim Vote by harping on the extradited
    Kenyan-Somali terrorists. Yet he knows very well that Kenya has
    treaties with other countries (that is how "Miracle Babies" child slave
    trader Gilbert Deya will be brought back to Kenya to face the courts).
    any case, why should the Kenyan Tax payer spend money on the
    trials when this is not our war?

    The Bottom line: We need Raila to lead a strong opposition in
    but not as president.

    Please pass this message to all Luos and right-thinking Kenyans. Luos
    no longer afford to be alienated from the rest of Kenyans simply for
    selfish satisfaction of One Dangerous Man (ODM). We want to make it
    that not all Luos follow Raila senselessly like sheep.

    You can fool some people some time, but you cannot fool all the people
    the time-Bob Marley.

    McDouglas Owino
    Luos Against Raila Abroad (LARA)"

  9. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

    Nov 23, 2007
    Joined: Nov 14, 2006
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    Kenya storm over president lunch

    President Kibaki is running for a
    second five-year term

    How do you feel after lunch costing $15,000.00, VERY FULL INDEED.