Uchaguzi Marekani

DEMOCRAT NA MBINU NYINGINE

Katika kuhakikisha hawazui timbwili na wafuasi/Sanders, viongozi wa Dem wamekuwa na harakati za kuhakikisha uchaguzi unafikia mwisho kesho

Wanatambua Sanders hatatangaza kuachia ngazi, ataendelea kwenda mkutano mkuu.

Hilo wanaliona ni tatizo kwani muda wa kuunganisha chama utakuwa mdogo

Katika viunga vya Washington imefikiriwa namna nyingine ya kumwekea shinikizo Sanders. Kwamba, hadi sasa Clinton ana upungufu wa wajumbe 25 kufikia 2383

Baada ya matokeo ya kesho atafikia namba kabla ya saa 3 za usiku Marekani, siku zinazofuata zitakuwa za 'endorsement' kwa Clinton

Hali ya duru kadhaa za wachambuzi inaeleza hali kama ifuatavyo

California ni Toss up kwamba yoyote anaweza kushinda kati ya 50.01-53%

New Jesrsey Clinton anaongoza na kwamba atashinda kati ya 55-60%

New Mexico nayo ni toss up, ingawa Clinton ana uwezekano mkubwa zaidi

Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Sanders atashinda kwa 60-70%

Hesabu,California wanaweza kugawana wajumbe,uwiano wa 225 na 230 kwa mshindi

New Jersey Clinton atakuwa na advantage ya wajumbe 18-20 dhidi ya Sanders

Montana, North and South Dakota kuna wajumbe 55 kwa ujumla.
Katika 70% Sanders, mgawanyo utakuwa 35 kwa 20 , Sanders akiwa na advantage

Wajumbe wa New Jesey peke yake watampa Clinton 2383.

Wakijumlishwa na maeneo ya Montana na Dakota, atakuwa na zaidi ya 2300,
California itampa 225, wakijumlishwa na 2300 ni 2550

Hii inaeleza kuwa, usiku wa kesho Super delegates 250 wakiamua kuahamia kwa Sanders bado Clinton atakuwa mgombea kwa namba ya 2300

Hapa ndipo vichwa vya wachambuzi vinauma, Sanders anatumaini nini?

Anatumaini bahati mbaya kutokea kwa Clinton!
Anataka umakamu wa Rais kupitia shinikizo?

Tusemezane

Update - 6/6/2016

Wajumbe wa kuchaguliwa

1. Hillary Clinton....1812
2. Bernie Sanders...1521

Wajumbe maalum

1. Hillary Clinton....548
2. Bernie Sanders...46

Jumla ya wajumbe - idadi inayotakiwa 2383

1. Hillary Clinton....2360 (pungufu kwa 23)
2. Bernie Sanders...1567 (pungufu kwa 816)

Mkuu Mag3 Clinton anaweza kupoteza California kwa 99% bado akawa nominee

Tayari anasubiri high profile endorsement kuanzia Jumatano, ikiwa ni ujumbe kwa Sanders kuwa muda umekwisha.

Tutaleta yanayojiri kona zote kesho in real time

Nguruvi3 said:

Mkuu Mag3 Clinton anaweza kupoteza California kwa 99% bado akawa nominee

Tayari anasubiri high profile endorsement kuanzia Jumatano, ikiwa ni ujumbe kwa Sanders kuwa muda umekwisha.

Tutaleta yanayojiri kona zote kesho in real time

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Mkuu Nguruvi3, watu wameshaanza kumchoka Bernie Sanders. Hapa iko article iliyotoka kwenye Washington Post.


This is the place where a policy-oriented Washington commentator like myself is supposed to offer Bernie Sanders supporters some sort of olive branch. For example, I could point out that he has highlighted some real issues. I am angry about money in politics, too. I believe that income inequality is a problem, too. I think the safety net needs strengthening, too. In other words, I am supposed to indicate that I get why Sanders has a movement.

But the truth is that Sanders does not deserve a movement, and his losing campaign does not deserve unusual deference and concessions. His tale about American oligarchy is simplistic, his policy proposals are shallow, his rejection of political reality is absurd, his self-righteousness and stubbornness are unbecoming. And, yes, he has lost. Here are some simple points worth repeating:

• Sanders’s path to the Democratic presidential nomination is essentially nonexistent. His only hope rests on convincing Democratic “superdelegates,” nearly all of whom back Hillary Clinton, to swing his way. They will not do that. It is incoherent for Sanders to ask them to do so, given that he has attacked superdelegates as non-democratic actors in the nominating process and that Clinton will almost certainly end the cycle with more votes and more pledged delegates. It is also staggeringly arrogant that Sanders would think that superdelegates, the Democratic “establishment” sorts that he has spent the whole campaign cartoonishly attacking as tools of Wall Street, would be open to his entreaties.

• It is politically reasonable for the superdelegates to stick with Clinton. The poll numbers Sanders cites to argue that he would be a stronger nominee do not reflect the impressions voters would have after the Republicans engaged in a sustained anti-Sanders assault — the sort of thing Clinton has endured for decades. Polling shows that Sanders does not, in fact, do unusually well among true independents and that many of these crucial swing voters have not formed an opinion of him.

• A Clinton nomination would be wholly legitimate. Sanders zealot Seth Abramson writes, “While not rigged, there is no question that the Democratic Party’s primary process — which uses superdelegates to create an appearance of pre-election electoral inevitability and closed primaries and onerous registration requirements to exclude many new, independent, and party-switching voters — has dramatically favored Mrs. Clinton.” This is nonsense, considering that Sanders has benefited from weird, anti-democratic quirks of the nominating process. FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers and found that “Clinton has been hurt at least as much by caucuses as Sanders has been hurt by closed primaries.”

So, enough with the reality-denial. Enough with the sanctimony. Enough with the attitude that only Sanders’s agenda counts. Enough with the dream that his movement is broader and more powerful than it has proved to be at the ballot box. Enough with the paranoid conspiracy theorizing, the lazy attacks on the “establishment,” the platitudes about the right to health care and the right to free college without realistic plans to realize them, the delegitimization of those who disagree, the scorning of practicality, the outrageous negativity about the state of the country and the simplistic narrative of evil 1 percenters who are to blame for everything that is wrong. Enough with the excuses for half-baked policy proposals (It is the direction, not the specifics, that matter!). Enough with the “political revolution.”


Berners can accept reality or sink deeper into delusion. Only one of these options would be good for them and good for the country.

Breaking News!

Democrats declare Hillary Clinton presumptive nominee. President Obama expected to endorse her anytime this week.

Jumla ya wajumbe - idadi inayotakiwa 2383

1. 
   
   
   • Hillary Clinton....2384 (zaidi kwa +1)
   • Bernie Sanders...1566 (pungufu kwa - 817)

HILLARY CLINTON AFIKIA MAGIC NUMBER 2383+

MAJIMBO 6 KATIKA UCHAGUZI LEO HII

Kama alivyosema Mkuu Mag3 CNN nao wametangaza Clinton kafikia namba 2383+ 1

Habari hizi zimekuja katika usiku wa kuamkia uchaguzi wa majimbo 6 siku ya Jumanne

Wafuatiliaji wa mjadala wameuliza, imekuwaje namba imefikiwa kabla ya kura kwa majimbo ya Montana, North and South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey na California?

Kumbuka idadi ya 2383 ni wajumbe wa kuchaguliwa na wajumbe wa Super Delegates

Katika idadi ya mwanzo ya Super delegates kuna kiasi kilichobakia ambacho hakikuchukua upande. Idadi kamili ya SD wanaoingia katika mkutano mkuu ni 15%

Kwa siku mbili wengi wanajiuliza nini kimetokea. Well, baadhi ya SD wamemuunga mkono Hillary kama walivyomuunga Sanders na kufikia 47.

Hawa ndio wamesukuma gurudumu la Hillary kufikia hapo lilipo.

Habari za Clinton kufikia namba hiyo zilijulikana kama wiki moja kwa kufuatilia wajumbe

Hata hivyo zimetangazwa leo ikiwa ni katika 'namna ya Sanders na vyombo vya habari'

Kutangazwa habari hizi ni kuwafanya wapiga kura wa Clinton wabweteke na pengine kutojitokeza. Hilo litasaidia Sanders kushinda maeneo mengi na hasa California

Ushindi wa Sanders California utajenga hoja yake ya kukubalika katika majimbo makubwa. Kwa idadi ya viti vinavyomchagua Rais wa Marekani , California ina viti vingi(electoral college).

Hivyo Sanders atajenga hoja kuwa inaonekana wazi kukubalika
Hapo ataendelea na hoja yake ya kwenda Philadephia.

Ingawa pia habari hizi zinaweza kumrudi kwa kukatisha tamaa wafuasi wake, ukitazama kwa undani Sanders alijua hilo na kulifanyia maandalizi mapema

Mikutano mingi amejenga wafuasi wake wakubali kuwa njia ni ngumu ila kuna namna moja, kwamba wakishinda California ngoma itakwenda mkutano mkuu

Wafuasi wa Sanders watapigana kuhakikisha hilo linatokea, wa Clinton watabweteka

Kwa mantiki hii, tunaweza kubashiri ifuatavyo

California: Mshindi atakuwa Sanders
New Jersy: Mshindi atakuwa Hillary Clinton

Dakota (south and North) : Sanders
Montana: Sanders atashinda
New Mexico: Clinton atashinda

Kwa matokeo hayo, ni unlikely Sanders anaweza kutangaza kuvunja kampeni.

Ingawa amefikiwa na Obama kwa simu, hakuna ajuaye nini maongezi yao

Kwa Clinton, endorsement ndizo zitaweza kumnyamazisha Sanders.

Tutaendelea

Nguruvi3 said:

Kwa mantiki hii, tunaweza kubashiri ifuatavyo

California: Mshindi atakuwa Sanders
New Jersy: Mshindi atakuwa Hillary Clinton

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Mkuu Nguruvi3, hapo kwa California naomba nitofautiane nawe kidogo; kwa mambo yalivyo nadhani bado Clinton anayo nafasi ya kushinda California ingawa ni kweli hata ikitokea hivyo Sanders bado atang'ang'ania hadi Philladelphia.

Tetesi zinasema kuwa huenda shinikizo la kumtaka Sanders ajitoe zikashika kasi kiasi cha kumlazimisha afanye hivyo ndani ya siku mbili kuanzia leo. Kama bado atakaidi itaonekana wazi kwamba lengo lake ni kukihujumu chama na hiyo itakuwa ni kama kutangaza vita dhidi ya Democrats.

Wasemaji wa ndani watamtaka amuunge mkono Clinton ili chama kiende Philladelphia kikiwa na umoja. Hawataki ya Carter na Kennedy yajirudie na hivyo kumpa nafasi mgombea wa Republicans Donald Trump kushinda uchaguzi.

Tusubiri tuone...

Zingine nyeti ni kwamba Sanders mpaka sasa ndiye kikwazo kwa Democrats kuanza aina ya kampeni ambayo haitakuwa na mfano wake katika historia ya siasa Marekani. Democrats wamejipanga vilivyo kuhakikisha Donald Trump wa Republicans haoni lango la Ikulu lakini hadi sasa wameshindwa kuanza kwa sababu ya Bernie Sanders.

Mag3 said:

Tetesi zinasema kuwa huenda shinikizo la kumtaka Sanders ajitoe zikashika kasi kiasi cha kumlazimisha afanye hivyo ndani ya siku mbili kuanzia leo. Kama bado atakaidi itaonekana wazi kwamba lengo lake ni kukihujumu chama na hiyo itakuwa ni kama kutangaza vita dhidi ya Democrats.

Wasemaji wa ndani watamtaka amuunge mkono Clinton ili chama kiende Philladelphia kikiwa na umoja. Hawataki ya Carter na Kennedy yajirudie na hivyo kumpa nafasi mgombea wa Republicans Donald Trump kushinda uchaguzi.

Tusubiri tuone...

Zingine nyeti ni kwamba Sanders mpaka sasa ndiye kikwazo kwa Democrats kuanza aina ya kampeni ambayo haitakuwa na mfano wake katika historia ya siasa Marekani. Democrats wamejipanga vilivyo kuhakikisha Donald Trump wa Republicans haoni lango la Ikulu lakini hadi sasa wameshindwa kuanza kwa sababu ya Bernie Sanders.

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Kitendo cha SD kupeleka hesabu haraka ilikuwa ni ujumbe kwa Sanders kuwa wakati umefika.

Inavyozungumzwa katika viunga vya Hill ni kuwa kuanzia jumatano habari itakuwa endorsement

JUMANNE 7

Matokeo
New Jersey Clinton ametangazwa mshindi
93% ya matokeo Clinton ana 63% Sanders 36

South Dakota
82% ya matokeo, Clinton 51% Sanders 47

North Dakota
Sander 65 Clinton 25

New Mexico
77, Clinton 53 Sanders 46

Hizi update zitabadilika kadri muda unavyosonga

Nguruvi3 said:

JUMANNE 7

Matokeo
New Jersey Clinton ametangazwa mshindi
80% ya matokeo Clinton ana 63% Sanders 36

South Dakota
57% ya matokeo, Clinton 52% Sanders 47

New Mexico
49 Clinton 52 Sanders 47

Hizi update zitabadilika kadri muda unavyosonga

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Update ya wajumbe muda huu nikiandika tarehe June 7, 2016;

Jumla ya wajumbe - idadi inayotakiwa 2383;

• Hillary Clinton......2616 (zaidi kwa +133)
• Bernie Sanders....1774 (pungufu kwa - 609)

Hillary Clinton ameshinda New Mexico
Usiku huu ana majimbo mawili, New Jersey na New Mexico

California kura zinafungwa katika dakika 4 zijazo.

Nguruvi3 said:

Hillary Clinton ameshinda New Mexico
Usiku huu ana majimbo mawili, New Jersey na New Mexico

California kura zinafungwa katika dakika 4 zijazo.

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Kura zimeanza kuhesabiwa California na mpaka sasa Clinton anaongoza ingawa ni asilimia ndogo sana imehesabiwa.

Mag3 said:

Kura zimeanza kuhesabiwa California na mpaka sasa Clinton anaongoza ingawa ni asilimia ndogo sana imehesabiwa.

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13% ya kura tofauti baina yao ni kura 150,000 in favor of Clinton

17% ya kura, Clinton anaongoza kwa tofauti ya kura 200,000

Tofauti kwa sasa ni kura 300,000. Hata hivyo nyingi ya kura hizi ni zile za njia za barua(mail). Bado kura zilizopigwa zikihesabiwa, kuna uwezekano wa Sanders kurudisha tofauti

Kwa Clinton kampeni, hizi ni habari njema kwasababu inaonyesha California itakuwa na ushindani wa karibu.

23% ya kura zilizohesabiwa tofauti ya kura ni 305,000

30% ya kura zilizohesabiwa, tofauti ni 300K Clinton

31% tofauti ya kura ni 400K

34% tofauti ya kura 396K

37% tofauti ni 400K in favor of Cinton

94% tofauti ni ile ile na Clinton ametangazwa mshindi

Hillary Clinton ameshinda South Dakota. Huu ni ushindi wa tatu katika usiku huu
South Dakota ilikuwa tegemeo la Sanders , kwa sasa ameshinda North Dakota.

California, fuatilia uzi 214 hapo juu

Obama ametoa statement akiwapongeza Sanders na Clinton.
Amempongeza Clinton kufikia namba 2383 na Sanders kwa kampeni iliyo energize Democrat

Atakutana na Sanders kwa maongezi Zaidi siku ya Alhamisi

WH inasema hii ni statement siyo endorsement. Hata hivyo kati kati ya mistari inajieleza

Kwa update the California fuatilia uzi 214

Nguruvi3 said:

Obama ametoa statement akiwapongeza Sanders na Clinton.
Amempongeza Clinton kufikia namba 2383 na Sanders kwa kampeni iliyo energize Democrat

Atakutana na Sanders kwa maongezi Zaidi siku ya Alhamisi

WH inasema hii ni statement siyo endorsement. Hata hivyo kati kati ya mistari inajieleza

Kwa update the California fuatilia uzi 214

Click to expand...

Huyu bernie kwa anachokifanya hastahili hata umakamu wamchinjie baharini tu achague abaki chamani akagombee useneta au asepe aangalie ustaarab mwingine. Ila US nazan wanataka kuandika historia nyingine hapo kwa mtu na mkewe kuwa prezidaa na mwanamke kua prezidaa

Nguruvi3 said:

Obama ametoa statement akiwapongeza Sanders na Clinton.
Amempongeza Clinton kufikia namba 2383 na Sanders kwa kampeni iliyo energize Democrat

Atakutana na Sanders kwa maongezi Zaidi siku ya Alhamisi

WH inasema hii ni statement siyo endorsement. Hata hivyo kati kati ya mistari inajieleza

Kwa update the California fuatilia uzi 214

Click to expand...

Update - DNC California primary presidential results 8/6/2016

Votes - 94.41% of Precincts Reporting

• Hillary Clinton......1,841,285 (56%)
• Bernie Sanders....1,416,742 (43%)

Total delegates - nationwide

• Hillary Clinton......2,755
• Bernie Sanders...1,852

Kama mnavyoona, Clinton kavuka inayoitwa threshold na mlango umefungwa...hakuna namna Sanders anaweza kufikisha idadi inayotakiwa.

CLINTON AFIKIA NAMBA
SANDERS AAHIDI KWENDA PHILL

Uhaguzi wa jana matokeo yamekuja tofauti na ilivyotarajiwa hasa upande wa Senata Sanders.

Lengo la Sanders ilikuwa kushinda California , jimbo kubwa kwa uchaguzi wa ndani na uchaguzi mkuu. Mantiki ikiwa kujenga hoja anakubalika na jimbo kubwa Marekani

Sanders alitegemea kushinda majimbo mengine kwa mtazamo wa Demography.

Matarajio ni California, North/South Dakota, New Mexico na Montana.
Alifahamu na wala haku kampeni New Jersey

Usiku wa jana alitarajiwa ''kutengeneza kesi'' kuwa kuelekea mwisho kampeni yake imepata nguvu na msukumo ,apewe fursa ya kudhihirisha hilo Convention Philadelphia. Haikuwa hivyo!

Sanders ameshinda majimbo mawili, North Dakota na Montana.
Clinton kashinda New Jersey, California, New Mexico, South Dakota , majimbo 4 kati ya 6

Clinton amemamliza kwa nguvu kubwa sana, California kapata wajumbe 257 , Sanders 188
NJ Clinton 73, Sanders 47, North Dakota 5 Clinton , Sanders 7, South Dakota 10 kwa wote, Montana Clinton 10 Sanders 11.

Uchaguzi ambao Sanders alipaswa kupunguza pengo, umeongeza pengo la wajumbe 91

Ni wazi hakuna njia. Popular vote Clinton kaongeza nusu milioni(tofauti), wajumbe n.k.

Katika hali iliyowashangaza Democrat, Sanders ameahidi kuendelea na uchaguzi wiki ijayo D.C

Kama mtakumbuka, tulisema kuwa matokeo ya jana yasingebadili msimamo wa Sanders

Tulisema hivyo kwasababu hesababu zilikuwa wazi hawezi kuwa mgombea.
Anatafuta sababu za kuendelea kubaki na jina la mgombea wa Democrat

Anasubiri matokeo ya FBI ili ajenge hoja ya kuenguliwa Clinton.
Ndio msingi wa kusema anaendelea na kisha kwenda Philadephia mkutano mkuu

Kwa kauli zake za jana na wafuasi wake kumzomea Clinton, Dem wamechukizwa
Pressure ya kumtaka aache kampeni inaongozeka kutoka pande zote

Tatizo linalojitokeza, kumshirikisha katika timu ya Clinton na jinsi alivyomshambulia
Timu ya Clinton haina furaha ya kumfanya mgombea mwenza

Sanders anatengeneza tatizo kubwa sana Democrat

Breaking News - President Obama endorses Clinton!

"Look, I know how hard this job can be. That's why I know Hillary will be so good at it," Obama said in a web video circulated by the Clinton campaign. "I have seen her judgment. I have seen her toughness."


Update - 9/6/2016

Wajumbe wa kuchaguliwa

1. Hillary Clinton....2203
2. Bernie Sanders...1828

Wajumbe maalum

1. Hillary Clinton....577
2. Bernie Sanders...48

Jumla ya wajumbe - idadi inayotakiwa 2383

1. Hillary Clinton....2780 (+397)
2. Bernie Sanders...1876 (- 507)

Na sasa kampeni hasa ndio inaanza rasmi Marekani...Clinton vs Trump.