The 2013 Kenya General Election Time Bomb

[DonBen]

President Jakaya Kikwete must be looking at his northern neighbour Kenya with a lot of apprehension. JK was among a group of world leaders who came to Kenya to preach peace and reconcilliation following Kenya's bungled presidential elections in 2007 and the weeks of post elections violence that followed.

In approximately 180 days (6 months),Kenya will go for general elections the promises to be the biggest in the country's history.

While a majority of Kenyan voters are illiterate they will still have to contend with six ballot papers to vote for Women Representative, Ward Representative, Member of Parliament, Governor, Senator and President in accordance with the provisions of the current constitution. At current count, the presidential ballot paper alone will be a booklet since at current count 25 candidates nominated by their parties to run for president. In some constituencies, as much as 40 candidates are expected to run. It will be a logistical nightmare by all accounts considering the voter register is expected to tip 20 million or more voters.

With only six months to go, the Independent Electrolotal and Boundaries Commission is yet to create a new electronic voters register and have already bungled the process of procuring Biometric Voter Registration kits. Civic education has yet to be conducted and even parliament is yet to pass electoral laws as per the timetable of the new constitution.

The last election in 2007 was followed by the worst violence in the country's post colonial history and that election was marred mostly due to a compromised voter register.

The current IEBC politicised and dysfunctional, and it can hardly be termed as independent because of persistent intereference and vested political interests at all levels of the commission.

Despite of this worrying trend of events, most Kenyans still do not picture the disaster that is waiting to happen ahead.

Recently, the Chief Mediator of the Coalition Governemnt blew the whistle and called for speedy implementation of electoral reforms as well as those in the police and other relevant sectors. But as it were, the executive seemed to be more preoccupied with sabotaging the cases at the ICC rather than implementation of reforms. The key figures inside and outside the coalition have in all intents and purposes launched their political campaigns.

WHO WILL SAVE KENYANS IF NOT KENYANS THEMSELVES?

 

[Ab-Titchaz]

President Jakaya Kikwete must be looking at his northern neighbour Kenya with a lot of apprehension. JK was among a group of world leaders who came to Kenya to preach peace and reconcilliation following Kenya's bungled presidential elections in 2007 and the weeks of post elections violence that followed.

In approximately 180 days (6 months),Kenya will go for general elections the promises to be the biggest in the country's history.

While a majority of Kenyan voters are illiterate they will still have to contend with six ballot papers to vote for Women Representative, Ward Representative, Member of Parliament, Governor, Senator and President in accordance with the provisions of the current constitution. At current count, the presidential ballot paper alone will be a booklet since at current count 25 candidates nominated by their parties to run for president. In some constituencies, as much as 40 candidates are expected to run. It will be a logistical nightmare by all accounts considering the voter register is expected to tip 20 million or more voters.

With only six months to go, the Independent Electrolotal and Boundaries Commission is yet to create a new electronic voters register and have already bungled the process of procuring Biometric Voter Registration kits. Civic education has yet to be conducted and even parliament is yet to pass electoral laws as per the timetable of the new constitution.

The last election in 2007 was followed by the worst violence in the country's post colonial history and that election was marred mostly due to a compromised voter register.

The current IEBC politicised and dysfunctional, and it can hardly be termed as independent because of persistent intereference and vested political interests at all levels of the commission.

Despite of this worrying trend of events, most Kenyans still do not picture the disaster that is waiting to happen ahead.

Recently, the Chief Mediator of the Coalition Governemnt blew the whistle and called for speedy implementation of electoral reforms as well as those in the police and other relevant sectors. But as it were, the executive seemed to be more preoccupied with sabotaging the cases at the ICC rather than implementation of reforms. The key figures inside and outside the coalition have in all intents and purposes launched their political campaigns.

WHO WILL SAVE KENYANS IF NOT KENYANS THEMSELVES?

DonBen,

karibu sana Jamiiforums where we dare talk openly.

The scenario above does not augur well for the Republic maana time is of the essence.

Have they factored in the millions of votes in the diaspora?

 

[DzeFF]

President Jakaya Kikwete must be looking at his northern neighbour Kenya with a lot of apprehension. JK was among a group of world leaders who came to Kenya to preach peace and reconcilliation following Kenya's bungled presidential elections in 2007 and the weeks of post elections violence that followed.
In approximately 180 days (6 months),Kenya will go for general elections the promises to be the biggest in the country's history.
While a majority of Kenyan voters are illiterate they will still have to contend with six ballot papers to vote for Women Representative, Ward Representative, Member of Parliament, Governor, Senator and President in accordance with the provisions of the current constitution. At current count, the presidential ballot paper alone will be a booklet since at current count 25 candidates nominated by their parties to run for president. In some constituencies, as much as 40 candidates are expected to run. It will be a logistical nightmare by all accounts considering the voter register is expected to tip 20 million or more voters.
With only six months to go, the Independent Electrolotal and Boundaries Commission is yet to create a new electronic voters register and have already bungled the process of procuring Biometric Voter Registration kits. Civic education has yet to be conducted and even parliament is yet to pass electoral laws as per the timetable of the new constitution.
The last election in 2007 was followed by the worst violence in the country's post colonial history and that election was marred mostly due to a compromised voter register.
The current IEBC politicised and dysfunctional, and it can hardly be termed as independent because of persistent intereference and vested political interests at all levels of the commission.
Despite of this worrying trend of events, most Kenyans still do not picture the disaster that is waiting to happen ahead.
Recently, the Chief Mediator of the Coalition Governemnt blew the whistle and called for speedy implementation of electoral reforms as well as those in the police and other relevant sectors. But as it were, the executive seemed to be more preoccupied with sabotaging the cases at the ICC rather than implementation of reforms. The key figures inside and outside the coalition have in all intents and purposes launched their political campaigns.
WHO WILL SAVE KENYANS IF NOT KENYANS THEMSELVES?

guess what? Kenyans do not need to be saved by anyone. We learnt from the past experiences and we ain't ready to do it again. For those who are expecting some tribal violence sort of drama, we're very sorry. We're not fools yo knw!

 

[Tram Almasi]

President Jakaya Kikwete must be looking at his northern neighbour Kenya with a lot of apprehension. JK was among a group of world leaders who came to Kenya to preach peace and reconcilliation following Kenya's bungled presidential elections in 2007 and the weeks of post elections violence that followed.

In approximately 180 days (6 months),Kenya will go for general elections the promises to be the biggest in the country's history.

While a majority of Kenyan voters are illiterate they will still have to contend with six ballot papers to vote for Women Representative, Ward Representative, Member of Parliament, Governor, Senator and President in accordance with the provisions of the current constitution. At current count, the presidential ballot paper alone will be a booklet since at current count 25 candidates nominated by their parties to run for president. In some constituencies, as much as 40 candidates are expected to run. It will be a logistical nightmare by all accounts considering the voter register is expected to tip 20 million or more voters.

With only six months to go, the Independent Electrolotal and Boundaries Commission is yet to create a new electronic voters register and have already bungled the process of procuring Biometric Voter Registration kits. Civic education has yet to be conducted and even parliament is yet to pass electoral laws as per the timetable of the new constitution.

The last election in 2007 was followed by the worst violence in the country's post colonial history and that election was marred mostly due to a compromised voter register.

The current IEBC politicised and dysfunctional, and it can hardly be termed as independent because of persistent intereference and vested political interests at all levels of the commission.

Despite of this worrying trend of events, most Kenyans still do not picture the disaster that is waiting to happen ahead.

Recently, the Chief Mediator of the Coalition Governemnt blew the whistle and called for speedy implementation of electoral reforms as well as those in the police and other relevant sectors. But as it were, the executive seemed to be more preoccupied with sabotaging the cases at the ICC rather than implementation of reforms. The key figures inside and outside the coalition have in all intents and purposes launched their political campaigns.

WHO WILL SAVE KENYANS IF NOT KENYANS THEMSELVES?

During the 2007 violence i happened to be in Kenya(Mombasa in particular). I was staying at a hotel near Casablanca Club. Then violence erupted, live ammunitions were used to disperse demonstrators it was a typical battle ground. cars,petrol stations were burnt. A friend of mine ended up having a diarrhoea! Damn, i dont want to experience that again in my life. Never ever! Kenyans should go for peace! Kutokana na niliyoyaona,nadiriki kusema 'tuisaidie kenya iwe na uchaguzi wa amani''.

 

[Kabaridi]

I know that this time violence will not be a recipie trust me, just because it happened once and on a large scale makes prophets of doom trying to take out the fact kenya is on a prosperous path.

 

[chash]

Tana violence has nothing to do with elections, however Kenya government should be wary of tribal leaders who may want to instigate violence in their areas as a way of getting rid of people who are likely not to vote for them. Sad to note that many who were displaced from their homes were not able to return and that is why there are IDP's. Those now occupying the IDP homes and farms should be the key suspects of PEV and should be held accountable for what chased out the original owners in the first place.

 

[DonBen]

	Clashes bode ill for March elections
	Government inaction criticised
	Jobless youths join armed groups
	Land grievances date back decades

MOMBASA, 14 September 2012 (IRIN) - Recent deadly clashes in Kenya stem from widespread economic frustration, chronic impunity and the ambitions of politicians seeking office, according to analysts and activists.

As the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay noted, the timing of the latest clashes on the coast is alarming.

"In Kenya, the recent inter-communal violence in the Tana River District, during which dozens were killed, including a large number of children and women, is a grim reminder of the 2007-08 events," she said earlier this week, referring to the killings and displacement [ ] that followed the country's last presidential poll.

"I call on the government to create an independent and impartial investigation and to increase vigilance across the country in view of the March 2013 [presidential, parliamentary, gubernatorial, and senatorial] elections," she said.

Hussein Khalid, executive director of MUHURI, a human rights organization based on the Kenyan coast, said: "The latest flare-up between the Pokomos, who are typically farmers, and Orma pastoralists has shattered the fragile peace-building campaigns [launched in 2008] and signalled more trouble ahead."

"The fighting… also confirms the long-held fears that a cache of deadly weapons are in the wrong hands in the region," he told IRIN.

For Hussein Dado, a retired diplomat and gubernatorial candidate who lives in Tana River District, "the guns are not the problem and seizing them will not end these conflicts. The key issues must be addressed. They can take the guns but these people will be left with machetes," he said. Much of the killing in this area was done with non-firearms such as clubs, spears and machetes.

"These killings are planned and executed by people who are known but they have not been arrested. They are never intercepted when information is given to authorities that they are planning to attack, hence all these killings," he said.

For the daily Star newspaper, the violence in Tana River and other parts of the country "is the result of government failure, pure and simple. The inertia and dithering by key security organs in responding to the situations lends credence to the charge that the government is complicit in the bloody chaos."

In a 13 September statement, Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged Kenyan authorities to reverse their habitual inaction and to "investigate and prosecute those responsible for violence in the Coast Region".

"Police and local administration in Tana River failed to respond to reports from residents over the past six months that violence could be imminent," the statement said.

Politicians to blame?

HRW said it believed four politicians "who hoped to win seats in next year's elections" and who, it said, incited violence in order to displace their supporters' opponents' were behind the clashes. One member of parliament (MP) has been arrested for incitement in relation to the killings.

"It can't be ignored that some politicians fan violence so as to mess with voting patterns in some cases so that the outcome favours them in the long run," said Josphat Mwatela, Principal Professor at Mombasa Polytechnic.

"Politicians come up with empty promises such as job provision and creation whenever an electioneering year is near, only for them to disappear or underperform, thus sowing a seed of hatred and hopelessness among the electorate, of whom a majority happen to be youths," he explained.

"Many youths have become extremely desperate to an extent of even being brainwashed to join terror gangs, thus posing a major security threat to not only the coastal region but entire country at large," said Mwatela.

According to Hussein Wario, a resident of the coastal town of Malindi, "youths are ready to join [the Somalia-based insurgency] Al-Shabab or any other militia group. Hundreds have already joined these groups and are available for hire to fight; their threat is serious."

In late August, the assassination in Mombasa of a radical Muslim cleric with alleged links to Al-Qaeda sparked three days of riots, during which hand grenades were thrown at police vehicles on two occasions.

The perception by the Coast Province's indigenous population that the government has sidelined them for decades, handing over their land to cronies and failing to deliver jobs or development, has led to the creation of a separatist movement, the recently unbanned Mombasa Revolutionary Council (MRC).

"Our people have declared a battle against further marginalization, we have resolved that the coast is not part of Kenya; no election will be held here. We must use the sword to get justice," declared a civil servant from the coastal Kwale County.

"A squatter in your own land"

Sheikh Juma Ngao, a renowned Islamic cleric and chairman of the Kenya Muslim National Advisory Council (KMNAC), told IRIN that "groups such as the MRC, who have more or less vowed to disrupt the election process in the coastal region have their ideologies deeply based on injustices surrounding land ownership and marginalization. Being called a squatter in your own land, for example, can be the worst thing to ever happen to anybody since that's the beginning of oppression."

Since independence, elites in Nairobi have doled out parcels of designated "government land" on the coast to cronies on the basis of loyalty or ethnicity, often illegally. Indigenous populations living on such land in the belief they had customary rights to it were regarded as squatters.

Independent researcher Paul Goldsmith said such injustices included the "disproportionate allocation of land there to non-indigenous people amidst high poverty levels in a region which earns the country the highest revenue from tourism."

"The MRC is not armed but could easily become so in the future," Goldsmith warned in a November 2011 report.

According to Abdirizak Arale, a lecturer at Moi University's Department of Environment Studies, large tracts of coastal land are now in the hands of foreign companies for rice and sugarcane production.

"Communities in Tana Delta and Malindi have lost more than 600,000 hectares of land which have been seized without their consent; they have been displaced [and] not compensated just to pave way for [the] change of land use and ownership, to grow sugar, rice and for mining. This is a key factor to the bitterness and the conflicts in Tana Delta," he said.

The Isiolo case

Projects launched in the name of economic development elsewhere in Kenya have also been blamed for generating instability. The transformation of Isiolo from a relative backwater into a "resort city" has worsened conflict between rival communities there.

"Pastoralists have been deprived of land, armed to fight each other and portrayed as violent. Title deeds have been issued to investors," according to Cosmas Ekuam, who works with Voice of the Pastoralists, an NGO.

"The community in Isiolo is seeking to be involved in this resort city project, [but] their land has been taken without their consent. They have suffered mostly as a result of this projected resort city, dozens have been killed and displaced. Is this development? asked Godana Doyo, a lawyer with the Northern Legal Aid Resource Centre.

The discovery of oil in northern Kenya "is a divine intervention from God. We have been blessed with the most expensive resources after decades of being denied support by the state and perceived as a liability," said Hussein Sasura, the MP for Saku constituency in Marsabit, north of Isiolo.

"Greed and corruption must be prevented to avoid [a resource] curse. The chances of an armed uprising from the communities in areas where these minerals have been discovered are high," he added.

Suspicions over Lamu port project

Many in the coastal region are also suspicious about a multi-billion dollar project to build a regional transportation hub, tourist resort and east Africa's largest free port in Lamu County, one of the poorest in Kenya.

The MRC-supporting civil servant said outsiders were "putting up Lamu Port for their own benefit, to import goods and employ their kin, nothing more".

This perception is shared by a coalition of local organizations grouped under the banner of Save Lamu, which on its website expressed particular concern over the secrecy and lack of local consultation with regard to the development project.

"Individuals with access to the plans have been scurrying to obtain land at the proposed development sites while locals remain internally displaced without any title deeds," it said, noting that only 10-20 percent of land in the county is owned by locals.

"The government has proved its disregard for the rights of the local communities by tearing through farms in Kililana area in January 2012 to prepare for the port launching site without informing, compensating, or relocating those affected," it added.

Here's another view. Not very comforting for Kenyans

Analysis: Kenya's deadly mix of frustration, politics and impunity

 

[Ab-Titchaz]

I know that this time violence will not be a recipie trust me, just because it happened once and on a large scale makes prophets of doom trying to take out the fact kenya is on a prosperous path.

Mkuu,

its not really about prophets of doom but more about what we see on the ground. Look at DonBen posting
above and you will see where the anxiety comes from.

Kisha tie that to the fact that the IEBC is not ready or is there an invisible hand controlling
this crucial body...just like during Kivuitu's times?

Swadaktaa.

 

[Kabaridi]

Mkuu,

its not really about prophets of doom but more about what we see on the ground. Look at DonBen posting
above and you will see where the anxiety comes from.

Kisha tie that to the fact that the IEBC is not ready or is there an invisible hand controlling
this crucial body...just like during Kivuitu's times?

Swadaktaa.

Kongole,

Now too many innocent and helpless people are suffering and every one including Executive and the Office of the PM have left the situation amorphous. Media houses and not forgetting free-wheeling propaganda mills will find this opportunity ripe to misconstrue and fire any news on the air that they so wish without disdain. These injustices have been there all along since independence and it is still a mystery why at this point now the aggrieved (of land, and past injustices...etc) have resorted to pursue their own forms acquiring justice even if it means "bloodletting" I should or we should not tie that fact to IEBC, because lives of ordinary citizens should not be caught in the crossfire. If politicians want to compete through 'cut-throat' mechanisms they should wait and stake each other after the election period and avoid taking innocent and helpless populations (without even legal representation) hostage of their wild schemes. Apparently we have politicians who have assumed office that are too proud even to accept they don't possess leadership and/or even reform credentials.

Some of those leaders have just inherited wealth from their influential fathers who were once politicians and having done so think they are fit to become leaders, YES NDUGU!!! (UHURU RAILA name them..... and the list goes on and on and on). Kenya has reached a time where the term leadership must be redefined and rephrased. We seem to have inherited it from colonial legacy. This is the cancer that is eating Kenya. That is the truth and once we successful overcome this, Kenya will be a second 'paradise' I mean literally.

Tana violence has nothing to do with elections, however Kenya government should be wary of tribal leaders who may want to instigate violence in their areas as a way of getting rid of people who are likely not to vote for them. Sad to note that many who were displaced from their homes were not able to return and that is why there are IDP's. Those now occupying the IDP homes and farms should be the key suspects of PEV and should be held accountable for what chased out the original owners in the first place.

Tana violence has everything to do with elections. How do people who have lived all their lives as peasants and some nomads all off a sudden inexplicably start killing themselves. Read what I have answered a JF forummer here https://www.jamiiforums.com/kenyan-news/313121-double-standards-that-go-around.html#post4638002

 

[DonBen]

Mkuu,

its not really about prophets of doom but more about what we see on the ground. Look at DonBen posting
above and you will see where the anxiety comes from.

Kisha tie that to the fact that the IEBC is not ready or is there an invisible hand controlling
this crucial body...just like during Kivuitu's times?

Swadaktaa.

The most critical being lack of political goodwill in the implementation of electoral reforms as well as police reforms.

 

[chash]

guess what? Kenyans do not need to be saved by anyone. We learnt from the past experiences and we ain't ready to do it again. For those who are expecting some tribal violence sort of drama, we're very sorry. We're not fools yo knw!

Hiyo tana nini? you learnt nothing.

 

[nngu007]

Alhamisi, Septemba 06, 2012 07:32 Na Chrysostom Rweyemamu


UCHAGUZI Mkuu nchini Kenya utafanyika Machi 4 mwakani (2013). Bado takriban miezi sita tu wananchi wa Kenya waamue nani atamrithi Rais wa sasa, Mwai Kibaki. Hali ya sasa ni tofauti kabisa na hali ilivyokuwa mwaka 2006, mwaka mmoja kabla ya Uchaguzi Mkuu uliofanyika Desemba 2007 na kuleta balaa kubwa nchini Kenya.

Balaa hili ni kwa maana ya vurugu na mapigano makali ya wenyewe kwa wenyewe yaliyotokea baada ya kutangazwa kwa matokeo ya uchaguzi na kusababisha watu zaidi ya 1,000 kuuawa, mamia ya watu kukosa makazi baada ya nyumba zao kuchomwa moto; na maelfu kwa maelfu kuwa wakimbizi.


Ndiyo, mwaka mmoja kabla ya uchaguzi, yaani mwaka 2006, wanasiasa waliokuwa wanataka kuwania urais nchini kenya tayari walikuwa wanapigana vikumbo na kuwasha moto mkali wa kisiasa nchini humo kama ilivyo sasa.


Rais wa sasa, Mwai Kibaki, aliyedaiwa kuwa ‘alibaka' demokrasia na kulazimisha kubakia Ikulu baada ya Uchaguzi Mkuu uliopita, alikuwa akilalamikiwa sana wakati huo kwa kushindwa kudhibiti nafasi yake ya urais, na alikuwa anapewa nafasi ndogo ya kushinda wakati huo.


Mwandishi wa makala haya (pichani) ambaye alitembelea Kisumu na Nairobi mwaka mmoja kabla ya Uchaguzi Mkuu wa mwaka 2007, anatathmini hali ya kisiasa ilivyokuwa wakati huo, na jinsi Wakenya walivyokuwa wanachambua mustakabali wa nchi yao na mambo ambayo yangetokea kama Rais Kibaki angeamua kugombea urais tena, kitu ambacho kilitokea.


Kwa kweli kila Mkenya alikuwa anaushangaa utitiri wa watu waliokuwa wamejitokeza mapema sana kuwania urais katika Uchaguzi Mkuu ambao ulifanyika Desemba 27 mwaka 2007. Rais Mstaafu wa Kenya, Daniel arap Moi, alikuwa miongoni mwa wale waliokuwa wanaushangaa utitiri huo.


"Wanasiasa wanahusika kwa kuigawa nchi ya Kenya vipande vipande kwa kuhubiri ukabila. Wanazungukazunguka wakijidai kuwa hiyo ndiyo demokrasia, kumbe wao wanawinda maslahi yao ambayo hayataisaidia nchi.


"Katika chama cha KANU, Mwenyekiti wake Uhuru Kenyatta anapata upinzani kutoka kwa Katibu Mkuu wa chama hicho, William Ruto, ambaye naye pia anataka kugombea urais.


"Chama kilichoiasi KANU, Liberal Demoratic Party (LDP) ambacho kinaongozwa na Raila Odinga kina wawaniaji urais wengi, akiwamo Raila mwenyewe, Kalonzyo Musyoka, Najib Balala na Musalia Mudavadi.


"Rais Mwai Kibaki atagombea kupitia chama cha Narc - Kenya baada ya Umoja uliounda Narc na kuiondoa KANU madarakani kusambaratika.


"Mwenyekiti wa Ford Kenya, Musikari Kombo, ingawa bado yumo ndani ya umoja wa Narc, ambao ndio unatawala nchi, naye ameamua kuwania urais," alisema Moi kwa masikitiko makubwa mwaka mmoja kabla ya Uchaguzi Mkuu wa 2007, na kuongeza:


"Hali hii haitaisaidia Kenya, na hasa ikizingatiwa kwamba wote hawa kila mmoja ana ajenda binafsi iliyojikita katika ukabila ili kufikia malengo yake binafsi. Hali hii itaivunja nchi na kuiacha vipande vipande."


Haya yalikuwa matamshi ya kwanza ya Mzee Moi kuhusu hali ya siasa ya Kenya na mwelekeo wake tangu chama chake cha KANU kilipoondolewa madarakani na Umoja wa Narc uliomweka madarakani Rais Kibaki mwaka 2002.


Narc nayo ilikuja kusambaratika na Kibaki kuwania urais kupitia chama kipya kingine cha wakati huo cha National Party of Unity – NPU - ambacho ndicho chama kinachogawana madaraka kwa sasa na ODM ya Waziri Mkuu Raila Odinga nchini Kenya.


Inasemekana Moi wakati huo alikuwa akikwepa sana kutoa matamshi yoyote kuhusu Serikali ya Kibaki kwa madai kuwa "Kibaki alikuwa anahitaji muda kuweka misingi mizuri ya utawala bora".


Moi hakuwa peke yake katika kuonyesha wasiwasi wa utiriri wa wawaniaji urais. Mwandishi Mashuhuri nchini Kenya wakati huo, Mutuma Mathiu, katika kuonyesha wasiwasi wake kuhusu hali ya kisiasa alisema:


"Jinsi mambo yanavyokwenda nchini Kenya, kila kiumbe kinachovuta hewa, na hasa wanasiasa, kitaingia katika kinyang'anyiro cha kuwania urais ifikapo Desemba mwaka huu (2007).


"Musikari Kombo, Najib Balala, Raila Odinga, William Ruto na mkururo wa wanasiasa wengine tayari wamekwisha kutamka kuingia kwenye kinyang'anyiro cha kuwania urais.


"Haitashangaza kuwa ifikapo Desemba 2007, hata wale ambao tayari wamekufa watafufuka kwa kuogopa kuachwa nyuma kwenye kinyang'anyiro hiki.


"Sasa itakapofika wakati wenyewe hasa ndipo kitakuwa kivumbi. Pengine itakuwa zamu ya mbuzi, ng'ombe, mbwa na paka ambao nao wataonyesha nia ya kuchukua nafasi aliyoikalia Rais Kibaki," alisema Mathiu kwa kejeli, na kuongeza:


"Kwa maoni yangu, uwaniaji huu wa urais mwaka mmoja kabla ya kufanyika kwa Uchaguzi Mkuu ni dalili za wazi kuwa viongozi wetu ni wabinafsi na wapenda madaraka. Hawawajali wananchi na maendeleo ya Kenya kwa ujumla wake, bali ni wabinafsi, wanaojiangalia wao wenyewe tu. Siasa za Kenya sasa ni pori la vurugu na mkanganyiko wa uongo wa kisiasa."


Ni kweli Kenya ilikuwa tayari imemegeka vipande vipande, vyote vikijikita katika misingi ya kikabila. Waluo wa Nyanza walikuwa hawasikii chochote, walikuwa wanataka kumsikia Raila Odinga tu, basi.


Waluhya magharibi mwa Kenya walikuwa wanamwangalia mtu wao Musalia Mudavadi, japo kulikuwa na Mluhya mwingine, Musikari Kombo, wa chama cha Ford Kenya.


Wakikuyu, kabila la Rais Kibaki, hao ndio kabisa inadaiwa kuwa damu yao inanuka Ukikuyu tu, na hii inaelezwa kuwa inajionyesha waziwazi; kwamba Wakikuyu wanaamini kuwa wao ndio wenye haki ya kuitawala Kenya kisiasa na kiuchumi!


Waluo na Waluhya ni majirani, na hawajawahi kuungana kwa nia ya kupeleka urais magharibi mwa Kenya. Sasa inakaribia miaka 49 tangu Kenya ipate Uhuru Desemba 1963, Waluo na Waluhya wamekuwa na sauti kubwa katika kuamua nani awe mpangaji wa Ikulu - ama kwa uamuzi wa moja kwa moja au wa chini chini.


Katika Uchaguzi Mkuu wa 2002, Waluo na Waluhya waliupigia Umoja wa Narc kura na kumwezesha Kibaki kunyakua madaraka. Baada ya kuingia madarakani, Kibaki alimteua Mluhya, Kijana Wamalwa (sasa ni marehemu), kuwa Makamu wa Rais, na kumwacha pembeni Raila Odinga.


Hii ilikuwa kinyume cha makubaliano ya awali kati yake (Kibaki) na Raila kwamba nafasi hiyo ingekuwa ya Raila hasa baada ya kumsaidia sana Kibaki kuukwaa urais.


Baada ya kifo cha Wamalwa, Kibaki alimteua Mluhya tena, Moody Awori, kushika nafasi ya Makamu wa Rais, hatua ambayo iliendelea kumuudhi sana Raila.


Kuna uvumi kuwa Mudavadi na Raila walijaribu kutafuta fomula ya kuunganisha makabila haya mawili (Waluo na Waluhya) ili kujihakikishia kura nyingi katika Uchaguzi Mkuu uliofanyika mwaka 2007. (Wawili hawa sasa wamesambaratika na kila mmoja anamwinda mwenzake kisiasa).


Hatua hii ilikuwa na nia ya kufifisha nguvu za kabila kubwa la Wakikuyu linalokaa katikati mwa Kenya, na watu wa Bonde la Ufa (Rift Valley) ambako Mzee Moi alikuwa anadaiwa kuwa na ushawishi mkubwa.


Raila, Mudavadi na Musyoka ambaye anatoka katika kabila la Wakamba, wakiungwa mkono na watu wa pwani mwa Kenya ambako anatoka Balala waliweza kumshinda Rais Kibaki Novemba 21, 2005 kwa kutumia Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) wakati wa kura za maoni ya Katiba mpya. Huu ulikuwa mchuano kati ya Chungwa na Ndizi ambao ulimwacha Rais Kibaki njia panda kisiasa.


Kwa upande mwingine, Rais Mstaafu Moi alikuwa anapenda mwaka 2007 Uhuru Kenyatta ashinde urais baada ya juhudi zake kupitia kilichoitwa Mradi wa Uhuru (Uhuru Project) kushindwa vibaya mwaka 2002, na kuufanya Umoja wa Narc kunyakua madaraka, hali iliyosababisha chama chake cha KANU kuwa chama cha upinzani kwa mara ya kwanza tangu Kenya ipate Uhuru (Desemba mwaka 1963).


Lakini kwa hali ya kisiasa ilivyokuwa, hii isingewezekana. Maji yalikuwa marefu sana kwa Mzee Moi. Ni kweli wakati huo alikuwa na ushawishi mkubwa kisiasa nyumbani kwake katika Bonde la Ufa ambao sasa umefifia sana. Hivyo asingeweza kumuuza Uhuru Kenyatta kwa Waluhya, Waluo, Wakamba (anakotoka Musyoka) na sehemu za pwani mwa Kenya.


Uhuru ni Mkikuyu, na makabila mengine nchini Kenya hayawaamini kabisa Wakikuyu kwa sababu ya kuhodhi siasa na biashara za nchi hiyo kupitia migongo ya makabila mengine. Watu wa Pwani wanakwenda mbali zaidi kwa kusema kuwa "heri kula na Mluo kuliko kula au kuwa karibu na Mkikuyu"!


Tetesi zilizokuwa zinavuma wakati huo mingoni mwa makabila yanayoishi katika majimbo ya uchaguzi pwani mwa Kenya zilikuwa zinasema kuwa miongoni mwa watu waliojitokeza kugombea urais, Musyoka ndiye walikuwa wanapenda awe Rais, na Raila awe Waziri Mkuu baada ya Katiba kubadilishwa.


Watu wa pwani hawakuwa peke yao kwa hili. Walikuwapo baadhi ya Wakenya sehemu nyingine za nchi ambao walipenda kuona hali inakuwa hivyo baada ya Uchaguzi Mkuu ili kumfanya Raila asiendelee kutingisha nchi kisiasa.


Katika makubaliano na Kibaki kabla Raila hajajiunga na Umoja wa Narc, yaani kabla ya Uchaguzi Mkuu wa mwaka 2002, Raila alipaswa awe Waziri Mkuu.


Baada ya Rais Kibaki kuingia Ikulu (kama ilivyoelezwa hapo juu), alimpiga teke Raila baada ya washauri wa Kibaki, na hasa kutoka katika kabila lake, kufanikiwa kumshawishi kufanya hivyo.


Inasemekana kuwa ni watu hawa hawa waliomshawishi na kumshinikiza Rais Kibaki agombee tena urais mwaka 2007 kwa madai kuwa "nchi haiwezi kuchukuliwa na Mluo"!


Tangu Rais Kibaki alipomweka pembeni, Raila aliupa tabu sana uongozi wake hadi Uchaguzi Mkuu wa 2007 ulipofanyika. Alikuwa mwiba mkali, na ni mtu aliyekuwa anaogopwa sana na Kibaki mwenyewe na mawaziri wake wengi.


Kwa bahati mbaya sana kitu kimoja kilikuwa dhahiri nchini Kenya, nacho ni kwamba siasa zilikuwa zimejikita, na hadi leo hii zimejikita kwenye ukabila hasa hasa. Wanasiasa wengi wanahubiri demokrasia wakidai kuwa lengo ni kuwakwamua wanyonge wa Kenya kutokana na lindi la umasikini, lakini moyoni wamesheheni ukabila na ajenda binafsi za kuwanufaisha wao na watu wa karibu yao.


Mbali na ukabila, jambo ambalo Wakenya wengi lilikuwa linawakera wakati huo ni jinsi Rais Kibaki alivyokuwa ameshindwa kudhibiti nafasi yake ya urais kabla ya Uchaguzi Mkuu wa 2007, kwa maana ya kushindwa kuwadhibiti mawaziri na maofisa wake waandamizi kiasi kwamba walikuwa wanafanya mambo jinsi walivyokuwa wakiona; na mke wake, Lucy Kibaki, alikuwa akiingilia masuala ya Serikali wakati yeye si sehemu ya Baraza la Mawaziri.


Aidha, Wakenya wengi hawakuwa wanawaamini wanasiasa wakati huo ambako ufisadi ulikuwa umeongezeka, na Serikali kuonyesha kushindwa kufanya chochote cha maana kuzuia baa hili.


Ilifikia hatua wananchi wengi jijini Nairobi na mjini Kisumu walikuwa wakisema wazi kuwa Rais Kibaki endapo angeamua kusimama kugombea tena urais angejiaibisha mwenyewe, na hasa baada ya ‘kuvurunda' sana tangu achaguliwe kuwa Rais mwaka 2002, na kwamba ishara za nyakati hazikuwa upande wake.


Walisema kuwa na hii ingekuwa mbaya zaidi kama angesimama kupambana na Raila Odinga ambaye wakati huo alikuwa na nguvu (bado ana nguvu hadi sasa) na ushawishi mkubwa kisiasa nchini Kenya.


Walisema kama ingetokea hivyo, mambo mawili yangetokea; ama Kibaki angelazimika kukubali kushindwa na kuondoka Ikulu; au kutumia vyombo vya dola kuiba kura ili aonekane ameshinda, kitu ambacho kingetikisa nchi.


Na kweli hii ilitokea. Nchi si tu ilitikisika, bali pia iliwaka moto. Huu ulikuwa moto wa nyika wakati wa kiangazi ambao uliangamiza maelfu ya watu!


Sasa mwaka kesho Rais Kibaki hatakuwapo, kwa maana kuwa hatagombea kwa kuwa Katiba haimruhusu. Kuna kila dalili kuwa Waziri Mkuu Raila Odinga atagombea urais wa Kenya. Je, ‘atawasulubu' wapinzani wake wa sasa, wakiwamo vijana wa dot com, kama alivyomfanya Rais Kibaki?


Je, kwa siasa za Kenya zilivyo, baada ya Uchaguzi Mkuu ujao, historia ya mwaka jana itajirudia, ambayo ilichagizwa na ukabila? Sisi yetu macho.

 

[nngu007]

Sisi tuna bahati... lakini tunalala MILANGO hakuna hatulindi AMANI yetu... Sasa Umoja wa Mataifa wanaweza kuruhusu tukawa viinchi kama South

SUDAN? Hakuna kiongozi yoyote wa Chama Tawala anaweza kutuunganisha... Na haitatokea TENA...

 

[Hoshea]

Mwandishi naona unataka balaa ngoja waisome hiyo thread yako, unalo ndugu

 

[Geza Ulole]

The wave of killings or attempts to kill in Kenya is at unprecedented levels though some may argue each elections since Moi era have been culminated with violence; the current disorders are posing strong fears among the people of Kenya and neighbors 5 years down the aftermath of PEV. Take the Tana delta tribal killings and fires break outs at boarding schools dormitories being attacked by arsonists are all meant to provoke the victims and causing a sort of civil unrest a sign of what is to come, if the current situation is not contained immediately. I do ask my neighbors to please maintain vigilance and abstain from any sort of revenge or vendetta since the wounds of 2007 have not healed proper and whether these acts of violence are from within or outside (Al-Shabaabs); repay them with love.

All the best our Northern neighbors

​

For More stories http://www.nation.co.ke/News/School...14/-/view/printVersion/-/5vlru9z/-/index.html

 

[Mekatilili]

You could not be more on poing Geza, I have been following what is happening in Kenya and I am very concerned! I am very glad that your country is still in a lull and nothing seems to change dramatically. Just look at what these strange Kenyans are doing in their country it is really scary and unlike what is happening in the rest of EA and more specifically your peaceful country!

Just look at all this dangerous killing fields that they have been constructing for slaying millions in March! I was blind to this but am now glad that you have opened my eyes.

 

[Mekatilili]

These strange Kenyans are also building new airport terminal in Nairobi to escape through once the violence in March begins! Can you believe them Geza Ulole? Here is the proof, I found these pictures on the internet and I can not believe the international community is allowing them to do this in Nairobi!

 

[bzar]

These strange Kenyans are also building new airport terminal in Nairobi to escape through once the violence in March begins! Can you believe them Geza Ulole? Here is the proof, I found these pictures on the internet and I can not believe the international community is allowing them to do this in Nairobi!

Hehehe I like this very much.

 

[Geza Ulole]

mekatili, acha kuwa excited na road towards exclusion kama Jirongo alivyosema hata sisi tunajenga hizo kuna DART project, flyover project at mst junctions in Dar, and Dar Ring project , Kigamboni bridge na JNIA iko kwenye prosses ya kuwa expanded! The fun thing is nyie huwa mna ethnocentric view mkidhani that only happens on ur background! FYI hata Uganda, Rwanda and the whole Africa wana project kama hizo! So nothing special! M-solve mambo yenu ya ukabila na si kelel nyingii

 

[kshaka]

These strange Kenyans are also building new airport terminal in Nairobi to escape through once the violence in March begins! Can you believe them Geza Ulole? Here is the proof, I found these pictures on the internet and I can not believe the international community is allowing them to do this in Nairobi!

:lol: brilliant!