Rwanda's M23 gamble backfires

[SHERRIF ARPAIO]

M23 soldiers who surrendered to the ugandan army are pictured in the village of rugwerero about 500 km west of kampala
10 NOV 2013 08:51 AFP AFP
Rwanda, under intense international pressure over its alleged covert aid to M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, has maintained total silence since the group's defeat.
The March 23 Movement (M23) announced this week it was ending its 18-month insurgency after suffering a resounding rout at the hands of the Congolese army with key backing from a special UN intervention brigade.
The rebels are now under pressure to sign a formal peace deal on Monday in Uganda, to where most of its fighters have fled. Scores of wounded fighters have also fled to Rwanda.
UN experts have accused Uganda and in particular Rwanda of backing the rebels, and despite angry denials, officials in Kigali have been clearly anxious over the turn of events.
Rwanda's recent silence contrasts conspicuously with its threats of retaliation made just a couple of weeks earlier when shells allegedly fired by the DRC army hit its territory, raising fears that the conflict could widen.

"Rwanda overplayed its hand in the M23 gamble," said Kris Berwouts, an independent analyst on conflict and security in the Great Lakes region.
"The reaction of Rwanda's traditional partners went way beyond its [Rwanda's] worst fears ... it was absolutely clear that its future moves and actions would be looked upon with great suspicion," he said.
Analysts have largely attributed the M23's humiliating defeat to intense pressure applied by the UN Security Council and particularly the United States on Rwanda, ensuring that Kigali could not afford to bail out the rebels, whose military leader Sultani Makenga is under UN and US sanctions.
Rwanda "had no choice" but to stand down amid the latest fighting, another regional expert told Agence France-Presse.
Some figures in Kigali, analysts say, want to maintain a strategic presence in North Kivu—for both security and economic reasons—while others think it is no longer worth it.