Sammuel999
JF-Expert Member
- Jun 1, 2016
- 3,481
- 2,344
To think it started while Raila was at 28% now Raila is at 47% while Uhuru is at 46%
According to Bloomberg, voter turnout will be the deciding factor...
Kenya has 19.8mn registered voters
Each polling station countrywide will have only 700 voters
The race for Kenya’s presidency between incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga has tightened less than three weeks before election day in East Africa’s largest economy, though polls show both candidates lack the support to avoid a second-round vote.
Odinga, a former prime minister, is backed by 47 percent of voters while Kenyatta is at 46 percent, according to a poll by Infotrak released Sunday. A separate survey by Ipsos showed Kenyatta at 47 percent and Odinga with 43 percent, up one point from a May survey. A candidate needs 50 percent plus one vote and support from 25 of Kenya’s 47 counties to be declared the winner.
"The outcome will depend on voters’ turnout, which side gets more people out on voting day,” Ipsos researcher Tom Wolf said. “If the opposition can do that they can flip this and they can win."
Kenyatta, 55, is seeking a second term against 72-year old Odinga. Kenyan elections have heightened investor concerns because of unrest that engulfed the nation in three of the past five national votes. Odinga, who has failed in three previous presidential bids, has warned he will not concede defeat if vote is not credible and fair.
Kenya is in the throes of a drought that’s spanned three harvests and cut farm output, leading to shortages of foods including the staple corn, sugar and milk. That’s driven the inflation rate to the highest level in five years, squeezing families in an economy where almost half of the population survives on less than $2 a day.
About 40 percent of those polled expressed confidence in Kenyatta while 39 percent said were confident in Odinga, according to Ipsos. About 61 percent said Kenya is headed in the wrong direction and 44 percent support the ruling Jubilee party over the opposition National Super Alliance, which got 42 percent support, Ipsos said.
Kenyatta’s chances of winning in the first round has declined to 49 percent from 62 percent in May, according Emma Gordon, senior analyst at the Bath, England-based risk consultancy.
The race is “too close to call accurately” and avoiding a second ballot has become more difficult, Gordon said. The government’s "mishandling" of corn shortages may boost the opposition by swinging undecided voters from Kenyatta, Gordon said.
"Kenyatta’s chances of securing a first-round victory has dramatically fallen over the last months due to a series of scandals and missteps during the campaign," Gordon said in emailed responses. "It does show that Kenyatta has not had a successful campaign."
The Infotrak poll shows support for the main parties -- the ruling Jubilee party and National Super Alliance -- tied at 45 percent, while 49 percent of those surveyed said the nation is headed in the wrong direction compared with 47 percent who said Kenya is on the right track.
Ule mtu wa Kipindupindu skuizi aliambiwa apunguze maringo!!
Sent using Jamii Forums mobile app
According to Bloomberg, voter turnout will be the deciding factor...
Kenya has 19.8mn registered voters
Each polling station countrywide will have only 700 voters
The race for Kenya’s presidency between incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga has tightened less than three weeks before election day in East Africa’s largest economy, though polls show both candidates lack the support to avoid a second-round vote.
Odinga, a former prime minister, is backed by 47 percent of voters while Kenyatta is at 46 percent, according to a poll by Infotrak released Sunday. A separate survey by Ipsos showed Kenyatta at 47 percent and Odinga with 43 percent, up one point from a May survey. A candidate needs 50 percent plus one vote and support from 25 of Kenya’s 47 counties to be declared the winner.
"The outcome will depend on voters’ turnout, which side gets more people out on voting day,” Ipsos researcher Tom Wolf said. “If the opposition can do that they can flip this and they can win."
Kenyatta, 55, is seeking a second term against 72-year old Odinga. Kenyan elections have heightened investor concerns because of unrest that engulfed the nation in three of the past five national votes. Odinga, who has failed in three previous presidential bids, has warned he will not concede defeat if vote is not credible and fair.
Kenya is in the throes of a drought that’s spanned three harvests and cut farm output, leading to shortages of foods including the staple corn, sugar and milk. That’s driven the inflation rate to the highest level in five years, squeezing families in an economy where almost half of the population survives on less than $2 a day.
About 40 percent of those polled expressed confidence in Kenyatta while 39 percent said were confident in Odinga, according to Ipsos. About 61 percent said Kenya is headed in the wrong direction and 44 percent support the ruling Jubilee party over the opposition National Super Alliance, which got 42 percent support, Ipsos said.
Kenyatta’s chances of winning in the first round has declined to 49 percent from 62 percent in May, according Emma Gordon, senior analyst at the Bath, England-based risk consultancy.
The race is “too close to call accurately” and avoiding a second ballot has become more difficult, Gordon said. The government’s "mishandling" of corn shortages may boost the opposition by swinging undecided voters from Kenyatta, Gordon said.
"Kenyatta’s chances of securing a first-round victory has dramatically fallen over the last months due to a series of scandals and missteps during the campaign," Gordon said in emailed responses. "It does show that Kenyatta has not had a successful campaign."
The Infotrak poll shows support for the main parties -- the ruling Jubilee party and National Super Alliance -- tied at 45 percent, while 49 percent of those surveyed said the nation is headed in the wrong direction compared with 47 percent who said Kenya is on the right track.
Ule mtu wa Kipindupindu skuizi aliambiwa apunguze maringo!!
Sent using Jamii Forums mobile app
