Makubwa: Vikizama watakwenda wapi?

Mzee Mwanakijiji

Platinum Member
Mar 10, 2006

Tanzania: Zanzibar And Mafia to Disappear in 100 Years?

The Citizen

Scientists believe that the islands of Zanzibar and Mafia are likely to disappear under water by 2100 due to a rise in sea level triggered by global warming.

The islands off the Tanzania Mainland coast could be submerged in the ocean following a catastrophic rise in the sea level caused by the meting of polar ice.

Scientists revealed this startling information in Arusha during the official launch of the International Year of Planet Earth for Africa and a conference that followed.

They said the scenario was "very possible" because there were known cases of islands in the country which had since disappeared or were in danger of being submerged.

This means that Tanzania could be among countries that would be hardest hot by climate change, a phenomenon associated with global warming due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases.

Islands known to have been submerged include Maziwi, near Pangani in Tanga Region, and Fungu la Nyani, on the Rufiji River estuary.

Other gravely threatened sites are Ras Nungwi, at the northern tip of Zanzibar island, which has lost almost 100 metres of its beach to sea water, and Bongoyo and Mbudya islands near Dar es Salaam.

Mr Eric Mugurusi, the director of Environment Division in the Vice-President's Office, says Tanzania has already started to feel the impact of climate change, and gave the example of the melting of the snowcap on Mt Kilimanjaro.

The experts meeting in Arusha were of the opinion that only "bold measures" could save Zanzibar and Mafia islands, which are among the leading tourist sites in the country.

"This period is not a long time at all especially for people who care much about the future of their grandchildren.

That would depend on how we address global warming and climate change," warned one of them.

Increased emissions of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides, have been blamed as being the major causes of global warming.

Many local experts said they were concerned about predictions that Zanzibar and Mafia islands could disappear in a 100 years' time, but said they were not entirely surprised.

Experts from the Zanzibar-based Institute of Marine Sciences of the University of Dar es Salaam said the rising sea level posed grave danger to the economy of Zanzibar and coastal areas on the mainland.

"Our concern is not what would happen in 2100, but the gradual rise of sea level taking place now," said a marine scientist who cited tourism, fisheries and mariculture as the economic sectors that would suffer most.

Mariculture such as seaweed farming is an important economic activity with a production of over 7,000 tonnes per year.

The impact of sea level rise will be big because more that 25 per cent of Tanzania's population is found along the coast.

It could not be established if the Maziwi and other islands which have disappeared were inhabited in the past.

The Government stopped setting up settlements in the Bongoyo and Mbudya islands in the early 1990s, but they remain leading tourist attractions.

Mr Mugurusi said evidence showing that the icecap on Mt Kilimanjaro was receding was enough indication that climate change was impacting on the country's natural resource base.

Scientists say the icecap volume on Africa's highest mountain has dropped by 80 per cent in the last 100 years; from 12.1 square kilometres in 1901 to only 2.2 square kilometres in 2000.

The loss, he said quoting experts, was most disturbing from 1970.

Some scientists have predicted that the mountain may lose all its ice in 20 years' time given the rate at which it is depreciating.

Mr Carlos Mbuta, a senior environmental management officer with the National Environment Management Council has, however, that there were other factors behind the sea level rise.

He said NEMC had studied the situation on Bongoyo and Mbudya islands between 1988 to 2000 and found that their sizes had been reduced largely by strong wave action.

On the Mt Kilimanjaro glaciers, the official explained that research carried out for 15 years by a German scientist indicated that out of every 1,000 tonnes of water from the mountain, 400 tonnes originated directly from the ice caps and the rest from the forest belt.

My Twisted Take:

Labda ikifika miaka kama 90 kuanzia sasa hivi basi muungano tunaweza kuuvunja kiurahisi tu. I don't know.
Hata walio huko UK nao wakae mkao wa kutengeneza boti zao, kwani kasheshe la UK kuzama lipo ndani ya miaka 100 tokea miaka hii...
While to say Unguja, Pemba and Mafia will dissappear in a 100 year will be a gross exaggeration (Zanzibar has a vast area over 50m in elevation, some reaching just over 125m), I do understand the concern and appreciate the effort.What I neither understand nor appreciate is the low level of information in the article.I could even go futher as say the article actually misinforms the reader.

Unless the author is implying the sea will rise some 125m in the 100 next years (see topographical map of Unguja, I couldn't get one of Pemba sorry my Pemba peepz), in which case not only Zanzibar, but also Dar-es-salaam and much of the coastal mainland, as well as all low lying coastal cities such as New York, will face the same predicament.


"The experts meeting in Arusha were of the opinion that only "bold measures" could save Zanzibar and Mafia islands, which are among the leading tourist sites in the country."

distorts the truth and makes the problem appear localized than it is.That if only some bold measures (localized? what bold measures? by whom?) could be taken then this problem could go away.The writer not only failed to educate the masses on the global nature of this problem, that the rise on the sea level is a global issue threatening Zanzibar as well as Vanuatu and Nauru but also exhibited either gross unfamiliarity or unpardonable ignorance in failing to even raising awareness about such central topics of the issue such as the greenhouse effect, ChloroFluoroCarbons, the depletion of the ozone layer and other high school level favorites.

Topographical Map of Unguja
if the waters can submerge Zanzibar , the possibility is, The rising waters will be able to affect the coastal towns as well, i am afraid that
some parts of daressalam,tanga, will probably be under water. if that is the case then the current daressalaam city centre will submerge, isn't it?
if the waters can submerge Zanzibar , the possibility is, The rising waters will be able to affect the coastal towns as well, i am afraid that
some parts of daressalam,tanga, will probably be under water. if that is the case then the current daressalaam city centre will submerge, isn't it?


The devil is in the details, one Global Warming NGO has the following projection (highest projection 60cm by 2100). Not to downplay the effects of the rise of the sea level but you will see apart from the people living at the beach, tghis will hardly have the effect of sinking Dar, or Zanzibar for that matter as 60cm is just over half a metre.



Expanded record of sea level rise since 1880 with comparison to records from individual geologically stable sites and the satellite record of the last decade.This figure shows sea level rise from 1950 to 2000 and projections of possible scenarios through 2100. The historical record is the same as shown at right and is based on an average of 23 long duration tide gauge records from geologically stable sites, see Image:Recent Sea Level Rise.png for details.

The projections are adapted from Figure 11.1 of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a). These results are based climate model simulations of the IS92a ("business as usual") scenario for greenhouse gas emissions. The models used include direct forcing from greenhouse gas emissions and partially offsetting cooling from man-made sulfate emissions, but do not include other indirect aerosol effects. Further details on the models are available in IPCC tables 11.13 and 9.1.

The results of the IPCC report were modified slightly by adjusting the records so that they overlap in the year 2000 and match the instrumental record at that time. The gray bar at 2100 indicates the full range of uncertainty associated with the sea level projections after accounting for the limits of the uncertainty in the most extreme models.


Map of regions potentially vulnerable to sea level rise.Analogy to past climate states, suggests that a warming of ~3°C, such as is anticipated by 2100, would be sufficient to cause 4-6 m of sea level rise (Overpeck et al. 2006). However, such changes may take a millennium to be fully realized.

Research published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report appears to indicate that glacial outflow has increased beyond model expectations (Alley et al. 2005). Similarly, recent studies suggest that Antarctica may be losing mass while the models had predicted near neutral mass balance or even slight gains due to increased snow fall (Velicogna and Wahr 2006). The full implications of these results are not yet understood, but it suggests that sea level rise may be at the high end or above the IPCC projections shown here.
ndiyo hayo ya kuifanya habari isiyo habari kuwa habari...

Walichoandika siyo habari (article haina umakini, haina information mpya, ina mislead), licha ya hivyo siyo lazima kila wakati uandike "habari" in the sense ya new information , unaweza kuandika feature article, wame squander karatasi wino na muda wa watu kwa kushindwa hata ku stress issues zinazojulikana nilizitaja hapo juu.
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