It's official: Russia is heading into recession

The Russian government said the economy will contract by 0.8% in 2015. The country revised its 2015 budget based on a lower value for the ruble and oil trading at $80 per barrel, compared to its previous assumption that oil will be trading at $100 barrel next year.

The economic contraction could get worse, given that even these assumptions are already more optimistic than current levels. On Tuesday, Brent crude oil was trading at $71, while the value of its currency had fallen further.

The government has a more "pessimistic" scenario if oil prices trade at $60 per barrel, in which case the Russian economy would fall by 3.5-4%.

Russia's economy is facing a downward spiral because of low oil prices -- half of the government's revenue comes from oil and gas exports -- and Western sanctions.

A weak currency sends prices of imported goods higher, hurting consumers.

Economic sanctions imposed over the crisis in Ukraine have triggered huge capital outflows -- estimated at $125 billion this year. As much as $80 billion could flow out of Russia in 2015, according to new official forecasts.


Oil price drop costing Russia billions

Inflation in 2014 is expected to hit 9.7%, as opposed to an earlier forecast of 7.5%, and around 9% in 2015, the finance ministry said.

The central bank has already been forced to jack up interest rates several times this year, raising the cost of borrowing for firms and consumers.
And the government might have to increase its social welfare payments and pensions due to higher inflation -- putting even more pressure on the country's finances.

Russian officials signaled they might need to tap reserve funds for as much as much as 500 billion rubles ($9.3 billion).

Source:http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/02/new...html?sr=fbmoney120214russiarecession1230story

[h=1]Ouch! Cheap oil is squeezing these countries[/h] [h=2]These countries are counting on oil exports – and high prices. Oil in the mid-$60s is already below the break-even point for many.[/h]

Saudi Arabia ndo mhusika wa hii saga

Russia ni kama tanzania tu, wanategemea rasilimali!! Tofauti yetu na russia wao wanajua kuzitumia rasilimali zao sisi holaa. Na nchi haiwezi kuwa na uchumi wa uhakika kwa kutegemea rasilimali za MUNGU ina maana bila MUNGU kuweka zile vitu pale Russia ingekuwa kama ukraine tu.

andybird314 said:

Saudi Arabia ndo mhusika wa hii saga

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Saudia anahusika vipi wakati wanamake loss??

Nilidhani wako industrialized...

Sexer said:

Russia ni kama tanzania tu, wanategemea rasilimali!! Tofauti yetu na russia wao wanajua kuzitumia rasilimali zao sisi holaa. Na nchi haiwezi kuwa na uchumi wa uhakika kwa kutegemea rasilimali za MUNGU ina maana bila MUNGU kuweka zile vitu pale Russia ingekuwa kama ukraine tu.

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nyumba kubwa said:

Nilidhani wako industrialized...

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Mnasahau Russia ana viwanda vingi na technolojia kubwa kubwa..sio kweli kwamba anategemea Natural resources pekee...lakini pia habari hii ni ya kijinga imetungwa na watu wa CNN kwasababu zao wenyewe ni upuuzi tu...

marekani anataka warusi wasarende hajui watu waliopitia ujamaa ni wagumu sana. kadri anavyowabana ndivyo wanazidi kusupport viongozi wao.

Somoche said:

Mnasahau Russia ana viwanda vingi na technolojia kubwa kubwa..sio kweli kwamba anategemea Natural resources pekee...lakini pia habari hii ni ya kijinga imetungwa na watu wa CNN kwasababu zao wenyewe ni upuuzi tu...

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half of the government's revenue comes from oil and gas exports

Russia bei ya mafuta kushuka imemuathiri. Vikwazo navyo kwa mbali vinakita.

Ila sasa hivi kuna wimbi la recession mpya linakuja, kuanzia China huko. Leo nimesikia Australia, nchi ambayo uchumi wake ulikuwa haujaguswa kabisa na matatizo ya uchumi ya dunia, inaanza kuingia katika contraction kutokana na madini yake kukosa soko huko China. Hivyo uchumi wa China kushuka utakuwa na domino effect kubwa mpaka the Aussies will feel it.

Hapo sawa ...maana definition ya resource dependent country ni nchi ambayo more than 40 percent ya export earnings inatokana na natural resources...(according to my memory...nilisoma mahali)

Ndo maana na sie TZ tumo japo madini yana mchango mdogo sana kwenye GDP (less than 3 percent)

Sexer said:

half of the government's revenue comes from oil and gas exports

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Bulldog said:

Saudia anahusika vipi wakati wanamake loss??

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Mwanzoni mwa miaka ya 90 wakati wa vita baridi,marekani alikula deal na saud arabia aongeze uzalishaji mafuta na hivyo kuflood the market bei ikaporomoka,kwakua soviet union ilitegemea mafuta kama chanzo kikubwa cha mapato,uchumi wa soviet union ukaanguka na ikashindwa kusustain cost za kuendesha nchi na hatimae ikameguka.
hiyo ndo siri kwanini marekani ni chanda na pete na saud.
safari hii tena saud alimwambia russia aache kumsaidia assad ili wampindue na kuweka utawala wa vibaraka wao na akamhakikishia russia ataendelea na base yake ya navy pale syria hata kama akiondolewa assad.
putin akagoma.
punde tena russia kakorofishana na marekani juu ya ukraine.
ndo likapikwa zengwe la saud kushusha bei ya mafuta hadi waiporomoshe russia na pia iran

Bulldog said:

Saudia anahusika vipi wakati wanamake loss??

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Saud wanapata loss lakini ndo ivo,wana wana foreign currency reserve kubwa sana itawachukua hata mwaka kabla hawajaanza kuhisi joto.
wazalishaji marekani nao kule texac wamezima mitambo kwani wao wanatumia technology ya fracking kuchimba mafuta na ni expensive kiasi cha dola 60-80 kuchimba kwa pipa moja hivyo haiwalipi tena.
pia hata canada wako katika hatihati

Ni ngumu kushindana na West,wale Saudis cartel ni America tupu na ndio wanazidisha supply sasa ili kukomoa,na ukichanganya na tech mpya kuchimbua shale gas,Canadian oil,Bakken belt North Dakota ambako wanasema kuna oil kuliko Saudi Arabia na magari mengi siku hizi yanakupa high mileage per gallon almost 40MPG,anyway oil business ni cartel tupu imeshikwa na Americans na ndio wanaamua price ielekee wapi wengine ni theater tuu,Venezuela has largest oil reserve in the world lakini bei anapangiwa na bwana mkubwa Wall street,Putin hana ujanja atauza tuu oil future contract kwa bei ya hasara to survive...Banksters ndio wanatawala dunia sio mwenye resources.

Elungata said:

Mwanzoni mwa miaka ya 90 wakati wa vita baridi,marekani alikula deal na saud arabia aongeze uzalishaji mafuta na hivyo kuflood the market bei ikaporomoka,kwakua soviet union ilitegemea mafuta kama chanzo kikubwa cha mapato,uchumi wa soviet union ukaanguka na ikashindwa kusustain cost za kuendesha nchi na hatimae ikameguka.
hiyo ndo siri kwanini marekani ni chanda na pete na saud.
safari hii tena saud alimwambia russia aache kumsaidia assad ili wampindue na kuweka utawala wa vibaraka wao na akamhakikishia russia ataendelea na base yake ya navy pale syria hata kama akiondolewa assad.
putin akagoma.
punde tena russia kakorofishana na marekani juu ya ukraine.
ndo likapikwa zengwe la saud kushusha bei ya mafuta hadi waiporomoshe russia na pia iran

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na hili dili iliitwa SAUDI ARABIA MONEY LAUNDERING AFFAIR

Elungata said:

Mwanzoni mwa miaka ya 90 wakati wa vita baridi,marekani alikula deal na saud arabia aongeze uzalishaji mafuta na hivyo kuflood the market bei ikaporomoka,kwakua soviet union ilitegemea mafuta kama chanzo kikubwa cha mapato,uchumi wa soviet union ukaanguka na ikashindwa kusustain cost za kuendesha nchi na hatimae ikameguka.
hiyo ndo siri kwanini marekani ni chanda na pete na saud.
safari hii tena saud alimwambia russia aache kumsaidia assad ili wampindue na kuweka utawala wa vibaraka wao na akamhakikishia russia ataendelea na base yake ya navy pale syria hata kama akiondolewa assad.
putin akagoma.
punde tena russia kakorofishana na marekani juu ya ukraine.
ndo likapikwa zengwe la saud kushusha bei ya mafuta hadi waiporomoshe russia na pia iran

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Yep...nafikiri Putin alisahau hii issue,lets see kama biashara yake ya Kalashnikov ak 47 itamuokoa.

Koba said:

Ni ngumu kushindana na West,wale Saudis cartel ni America tupu na ndio wanazidisha supply sasa ili kukomoa,na ukichanganya na tech mpya kuchimbua shale gas,Canadian oil,Bakken belt North Dakota ambako wanasema kuna oil kuliko Saudi Arabia na magari mengi siku hizi yanakupa high mileage per gallon almost 40MPG,anyway oil business ni cartel tupu imeshikwa na Americans na ndio wanaamua price ielekee wapi wengine ni theater tuu,Venezuela has largest oil reserve in the world lakini bei anapangiwa na bwana mkubwa Wall street,Putin hana ujanja atauza tuu oil future contract kwa bei ya hasara to survive...Banksters ndio wanatawala dunia sio mwenye resources.

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Venezuela walipoona hali inakua siyo,hawajatumia karibu reserve yao yote ya foreign currency kununua tani kadhaa za dhahabu kama tahadhari mambo yakiwa tight wauze na kupata pesa za kurun serikali,matokeo yake bei ya dhahabu nayo imestuck,haipandi mzigo umewadodea.

Elungata said:

Venezuela walipoona hali inakua siyo,hawajatumia karibu reserve yao yote ya foreign currency kununua tani kadhaa za dhahabu kama tahadhari mambo yakiwa tight wauze na kupata pesa za kurun serikali,matokeo yake bei ya dhahabu nayo imestuck,haipandi mzigo umewadodea.

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Dunia uwanja wa fujo...
Yani kuna watu ndio wanaoamua nani atoke nani aangamie...

Ndio maana nchi zinazochipukia zimeamua kuwa na umoja wao BRICS...

ili power isiwe centralized na kuwa abused na wachache...

China loosens debt terms for Venezuela
China has loosened repayment terms on the nearly US$ 50 billion in loans it has granted Venezuela since 2007. Analysts say Beijing’s flexibility may buy Maduro more time. Beijing’s largess may appear irrational given economic policies in Venezuela that do not appear sustainable, says Barbara Kotschwar of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “On the other hand,” Ms. Kotschwar said, “they are so invested in Venezuela’s oil industry that they may have calculated that a political crisis would have a negative impact on their return on investment or on Venezuela’s repayment of loans.” China has scrapped the requirement that Venezuela ship at least 330,000 barrels of oil a day as payment for its existing loans. The reduced shipments of Venezuelan crude to China reflect the surplus in international oil markets as well as the Chinese economy’s slower growth, but they also amount to a mutually beneficial arrangement. Venezuela can divert more of its oil to cash customers, instead of using it for debt repayment. China, meanwhile, can play the long game, helping stabilize the Venezuelan economy while keeping the door open to an important market for its oil-services, drilling, mining, appliances and construction companies(The Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News & Video - Wall Street Journal - Wsj.com /articles/china-loosens- debt-terms-for-venezuela- 1416858616)

Sexer said:

Russia ni kama tanzania tu, wanategemea rasilimali!! Tofauti yetu na russia wao wanajua kuzitumia rasilimali zao sisi holaa. Na nchi haiwezi kuwa na uchumi wa uhakika kwa kutegemea rasilimali za MUNGU ina maana bila MUNGU kuweka zile vitu pale Russia ingekuwa kama ukraine tu.

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Niambie ni nchi gani haitegemei rasilimali? hivi unajua watu ni rasilimali pia