Is UKAWA following Kenya’s Rainbow Coalition footsteps?

[RUCCI]

Opposition party leaders who on Sunday signed the Memorandum of Understanding to work together on how to dislodge CCM from power right from the grassroots level come 2015 General Election.

After winning controversially the two elections under the multiparty system, former Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi came to believe he was indeed, the professor of politics.

While in his own country Moi's popularity plunged, outside Kenya, he was heralded. In Tanzania, for instance, he became the darling of CCM, and was once welcomed to lecture the ruling party on how not to lose an election.

As Kenya was approaching the 2002 General Election, the Moi regime was increasingly being tainted by corruption allegations-forcing donors to suspend aid and budget support.

A group of Asian businessmen was in bed with some top Kanu officials, looting the country via dubious deals-including the Goldenberg scandal-authored by one Kamlesh Pattni.

Donors suspended aid in 1990s, forcing Moi to rely in domestic revenues to implement public projects.

Kenya's economic and social development went downhill, plunging the country into a state of hopelessness between 1992 and 2002.

Moi remained on top, playing his political gambles as usual.

During the 1990s, his regime rallied political wheeler dealers as investors, who in return donated millions of shillings looted from the economy, to ‘Mutukufu Moi' and Kanu during fundraisers –"harambees".

To ensure his regime remained in power, Mr Moi also rallied security agencies including the spy bureau, which was known as Special Branch, manned by a most feared man-James Kanyotu. There was also the ruthless police, whose core mission was to deal with the opposition.

In 1990s crime surged dramatically in Kenya, especially in Nairobi, hence the moniker, ‘Nairobbery', because the police and other security agencies were more concerned with protecting the president and his allies at the expense of all other Kenyans.

When Moi sensed that despite the brutal force he applied against his opponents, the Opposition continued to grow, he decided to poach Mr Raila Odinga to his Kanu regime.

He first appointed Odinga a Cabinet minister, before making him the secretary general of the ruling party-in an open voting system-whereby Joseph Kamotho, the then secretary general was eased out.

He also promised Odinga he would be his successor through the 2002 polls, but when the time came, he was ditched when the professor of politics chose a young politician, Uhuru Kenyatta, as Kanu's presidential candidate.

Of course, for those who understand what Jomo Kenyatta did to Moi especially in his political career, the decision to ‘ordain' Uhuru was a payback to the Kenyatta family.

But, Moi's move was also the beginning of the end of an era of his brutal leadership, because for the first time, strong allies like Prof George Saitoti and Odinga defected to the Opposition-forming a rainbow coalition-that eventually roped in Mwai Kibaki.

For the first time, the professor of politics was cornered in July, 2002-five months before the election date.

The opposition leaders, for the first time, formed an alliance to remove Kanu from power-followed by the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed publicly under the political umbrella of Rainbow Coalition.

The rest, as they say, is history. In a word, the fall of Kanu in Kenya was caused by Moi himself.

Whatever happened in Kenya was not just an accident, but a political blunder that always occurs in those countries where the ruling party has ruled for so long, to the extent of believing that it can still win any election at any cost.

Tanzania scenario

In Tanzania, the ruling party has been in power for five decades-and still determined to rule for many years to come.

In Africa, CCM is credited for being one of the few independence parties that are still in power, for in essence, it is not detachable from Tanganyika's Tanu and Zanzibar's the Afro Shiraz Party (ASP). The amalgamation Tanu and ASP 1977 gave birth to CCM.

But, as Tanzania approaches the 2015 General Election as well as the planned referendum for the proposed constitution, there is a clear writing on the wall-if CCM doesn't change the way it operates its politics, it could also go the Kanu way.

While the Tanzania's political environment differ from that of Kenya, there are still some similarities. First, like the Moi regime, the Tanzania government is under pressure from donors and the Opposition to fight grand corruption.

On Sunday, four opposition parties publicly signed the MoU to field a single candidate at all levels during the December local government elections and the October 2015 General Election.

Just like Kenya's rainbow coalition born out of disagreement over how Moi handled the nomination process for his successor, in Tanzania, the opposition coalition, Defenders of People's Constitution (known in its Kiswahili acronym, Ukawa) was an outcome of the Opposition's displeasure over what was seen as CCM's hijack of the constitution making process.

Some political analysts predict that President Kikwete's biggest challenge will come during the candidate nomination process for his party's march-to-Ikulu flag bearer, scheduled in May, 2015.

"How he (Kikwete) handles the nomination process will break or make CCM of the future," says one of those touted as an aspirant for Ikulu via the ruling party.

Already, there is sharp division within the ruling party, caused mainly by the Kikwete succession politics. So far, Former Prime minister Edward Lowassa, Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda and Foreign Affairs Minister Benard Membe are given the highest chance of winning the race to state house within the ruling party.

But, still, the CCM presidential candidate could still come out of three high rated politicians according to insiders within the ruling party who didn't want to be named.

Unhealed rift after Richmond saga

The Richmond saga, which finally led to the resignation of Prime Minister Lowassa and two other cabinet ministers, continue to haunt the ruling party.

While there is a group within the ruling party, which wants to use Richmond as a political card to frustrate Mr Lowassa's Ikulu ambitions, what transpired after the 2010 polls complicates the situation.

Mr Lowassa still maintains that he resigned on the principle of political accountability, but denies any wrongdoing during the process to award Texas-based firm, Richmond LLC, $179 million power supply tender, in early 2006.

After the 2010 General Election, CCM launched a special operation to get rid of all allegedly corrupt politicians, in which Mr Lowassa, Mr Rostam Aziz, Mr Andrew Chenge and others were targeted.

They were given an ultimatum to resign, but only Mr Aziz did while the rest ignored the call.

But, the operation, which was being pushed by CCM's former secretary general, Mr Wilson Mukama, and the party's publicity secretary, Mr Nape Nnauye, died a natural death.

Mr Chenge has since become a hero thanks to his role in the process to make the new constitution, and his radar case vanished into thin air-after UK's Serious Fraud Office dropped all the charges.

The Richmond saga, which was inherited by Dowans Tanzania Ltd, moved from a local to global court, to protest the suspension of the power contract done by Tanzania Electric Supply Company Ltd (Tanesco).

What transpired? The government was defeated at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), and was ordered to pay over $100 million cost-a move that met strong opposition from Dr Harrison Mwakyembe, Mr Samuel Sitta and some activists.

Despite the protests, the government has finally paid Dowans quietly-ending nearly eight years of Richmond saga.

The Dowans plants, which the Dr Mwakyembe team said Tanesco shouldn't buy at the cost of $52 million, were sold to another US-based company, Symbion Power.

After the dramatic acquisition of the Dowans plants, Symbion entered into power purchase agreement with Tanesco-and the US firm has since been supplying electricity to the state-owned power utility.

The acquisition was first touted by US former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, before President Obama endorsed the deal in July, last year, when he officially launched the Dowans plants at Tanesco headquarters.

Whichever way you look at it, the rift caused by Richmond is still here to haunt the ruling party ahead of the 2015 polls.

Donor's reaction

Recently, the donor community-EU countries and Japan-suspended their budget support amounting to Sh1 trillion ($660million) because of controversial Independent Power Tanzania Limited (IPTL) $250 million escrow account.

The US, which has been financing power projects in Tanzania through millennium challenge account, has also delayed the signing of $700 million pact, pending the investigation into the IPTL saga. The funding pact was supposed to have been signed in September, this year, but was delayed, according to people involved in this project.
It is certain that the move by donors to suspend support will hamper government's implementation of the 2014/15 Budget.

"The message the donors are sending to the government is: whether you are with us or with corrupt deals…choices will have to be made to save the country," opposition MP David Kafulila who took the IPTL case to Parliament said.

One of the men accused of working very close to the Moi regime to execute controversial deals in 1990s, is now in Tanzania, boasting openly that he is well-connected to various top leaders in the ruling party.

He is the author and finisher of the IPTL saga, which has put government as well as the ruling party in a corner.

The government, was in June, this year, forced to order two agencies, Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) and Controller and Auditor General (CAG) to investigate the IPTL scandal.

According to reliable sources within the PCCB, the IPTL change of ownership, which finally led to the withdrawal of escrow billions at the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), was dubiously done.

PCCB completed its forensic investigation in September, this year, and is now planning criminal charges against all officials who were implicated in the IPTL deal. "Evidentially and materially, we have confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt that we have a strong case in the IPTL saga," one senior PCCB officials told The Citizen recently.

CAG, despite promising to submit its investigation report to the Parliament in September, is still struggling to compile its final audit report. The Public Account Committee (PAC), a parliamentary watchdog responsible for overseeing public accounts, has given CAG up to October 31, this year to submit its report.

Last week, while in London, Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda told the BBC radio that the donors' move to suspend budget support was unfair, because it was taken even before the investigation report on the IPTL scandal was completed.

Constitution change

One of the key issues that will test the credibility of the ruling party as well as the political capability of Ukawa will be the referendum, planned for April, next year.

While CCM, which from the beginning, had no agenda to change the constitution, has so far managed to outsmart the Opposition and will be campaigning for the "Yes" camp, its opponents have united to campaign for "No" camp.

Any outcome of the referenda campaign would, to a great extent, set the pace and the tone, for the 2015 General Election.

For instance, if CCM and the government successfully campaign for the "Yes" camp and win fairly, that would give Africa's oldest ruling party, a political mileage against its opponents ahead of 2015 polls.

But, should the "No" camp win, Tanzanians would witness what happened in Kenya, during the Mwai Kibaki regime, when the opponents of the proposed constitution campaigned under the Orange camp, while the pro-government camp were under the Banana camp.

The Orange camp won, setting the political pace for the 2007 General Election, which many believe the then ruling coalition under Kibaki lost-triggering the post-election violence.

In Tanzania, if Judge Joseph Warioba, for instance, decide to campaign against the "Yes" camp as he has pledged, it would be a big blow to the ruling party. For the first time in CCM history, Tanzanians would witness, one of its high profile leaders, going against the stand of his party and the government.

The "No" camp, driven by Ukawa, says the proposed constitution is nothing but a replica of the 1977 Law, because it has left out by almost 70 per cent, all recommendations by the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC).

The "Yes" camp led by President Kikwete believes the proposed constitution would be the best for the country-and CCM plans campaign rigorously to ensure it is endorsed.

Judging by the tone and vigour of CCM's top leaders, it is obvious that losing the referendum isn't welcome at all-and the party is ready to campaign rigorously to secure majority vote.

Source:The Citizen

http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Is...40392/2501802/-/item/0/-/6f4i05z/-/index.html