Great power politics and future of middle east

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Nilikuwa naangalia habari leo mchana, na nikashangazwa sana na kauli ya Katibu wa Marekani Bwana John Kelly aliposema mazungumzo ya amani yasipofanikiwa Syria basi nchi wataigawa nusu kwa nusu.

Nimejiuliza maswali mengi sana na majibu yanakuja mengi sana kichwani.
Hivi kwanini mataifa makubwa yaamue maisha ya watu wa Syria na kutaka hadi kuigawa nchi yao?
Hivi hawaogopi kuitengeneza North Korea na Irani ya pili?
Kwasababu mwaka 1950-53 baada ya Marekani na washiriki wake kushindwa kuitawala Korea wakaamua kuigawa na wote matokeo tumeyaona.

Tena mwaka 1980-1988 Marekani na Sadam walivamia Iran lakini mwishowe badala ya kuizorotesha Iran: Iran ikawa na mabavu mara mbili ya ilivyokuwa.
Na baada ya kuondolewa vikwazo basi Irani itakuwa na mkono mrefu sana Mashariki ya kati na kwingineko.

Sasa Marekani haogopi kabisa juu ya kuifanya Syria iwe kichwa cha mwendawzimu baada ya kutangaza kutaka kuigawa?
Ni dhahiri kabisa Assad hawezi kukubali taifa lake ligawanywe na wapewe Magaidi ambao Marekani anawaita Moderates.

Hivi leo na Warusi, China na Iran waamue kuwapa silaha nyingi migambo wa Kurdish, Hezbollah and Hamas kuna kupona kweli kwa mataifa kama Uturuki, Saudi Arabia, Israel na Ulaya?

Sasa na wimbi hili la wakimbizi si kutakuwa na Migambo wengi sana kutoka Hezbollah, Kurdish militia, Syria na Iran.
Tanzania tumeshajinea madhara ya wimbi la wakimbizi na hili halihitaji kusemwa.


CC: Dotworld , kahtaan , Bukyanagandi , Elungata , Masunga Jr. , kui ,

 

[Hoshea]

Aisee. Me hii kitu naitazama kama movie vile. Mambo yanaji unfold yenyewe, sasa wakimbizi wa kiarabu wanabaguliwa Ulaya.
Mimi nahisi hawa watu watatwangana vita moja kuu, wakimbizi mapandikizi watasaidia kuangushwa kwa tawala babe za sasa US na wenzake. Alafu wakija kuamka kutoka kwenye vita yao, Afrika tuwe tumeshaweka mambo na mikakati yetu poa hakuna tena kima kutuingilia na kuleta fyoko fyoko.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Aisee. Me hii kitu naitazama kama movie vile. Mambo yanaji unfold yenyewe, sasa wakimbizi wa kiarabu wanabaguliwa Ulaya.
Mimi nahisi hawa watu watatwangana vita moja kuu, wakimbizi mapandikizi watasaidia kuangushwa kwa tawala babe za sasa US na wenzake. Alafu wakija kuamka kutoka kwenye vita yao, Afrika tuwe tumeshaweka mambo na mikakati yetu poa hakuna tena kima kutuingilia na kuleta fyoko fyoko.

Mimi nadhani Modus Operandi ya vita baina ya Mrusi na Marekani ni Proxy bado,
Kunaweza kuwa na vita kubwa lakini katika mataifa ya Midde East pekee.
Taifa kama Iran, Isreal, Saudia Arabia , Lebanon , Turkey na Syria yatahusika sana na ndiyo yataumia kwa moja kwa moja.

Silaha kubwa ambayo itatumiwa katika vita hii ni Ugaidi,
Na hiki ndicho kitakuwa kisingizio ambacho Marekani na Urusi watakimbilia; kwamba hawappigani wao ila wanapigana na Ugaidi hivyo vita ya moja kwa moja kwa wakubwa hawa bado sana.

 

[kui]

Waigawe tena?!!, may be he was trying to use a diplomatic language, for something different!

Their foreign policy seems like it's messed up, if their main concern is to protect America and its allies, and they're doing that by invading countries governed by the so called Dictators and those which are safe heaven for terrorists, naona wanachemsha. Cos it's hard to control and manage the rise of ISIS and the like, which's the outcome from those invasions. Na sasa their involvement with Syria isn't looking good at all. They needed a plan B.

Lakini sijui kama watataka anything to do with war anymore after this mess,...and there was Iraq, and there was Vietnam. Inaonekana wamejifunza somo.
This's part of Obama’s last state of the union speech regarding their Great Powerness around the world where he also mentioned Syria...

"We also can’t try to take over and rebuild every country that falls into crisis. That’s not leadership; that’s a recipe for quagmire, spilling American blood and treasure that ultimately weakens us. It’s the lesson of Vietnam, of Iraq — and we should have learned it by now...

Fortunately, there is a smarter approach, a patient and disciplined strategy that uses every element of our national power...but on issues of global concern, we will mobilize the world to work with us, and make sure other countries pull their own weight. That’s our approach to conflicts like Syria, where we’re partnering with local forces and leading international efforts to help that broken society pursue a lasting peace."

 

[stormryder]

Nilikuwa naangalia habari leo mchana, na nikashangazwa sana na kauli ya Katibu wa Marekani Bwana John Kelly aliposema mazungumzo ya amani yasipofanikiwa Syria basi nchi wataigawa nusu kwa nusu.

Nimejiuliza maswali mengi sana na majibu yanakuja mengi sana kichwani.
Hivi kwanini mataifa makubwa yaamue maisha ya watu wa Syria na kutaka hadi kuigawa nchi yao?
Hivi hawaogopi kuitengeneza North Korea na Irani ya pili?
Kwasababu mwaka 1950-53 baada ya Marekani na washiriki wake kushindwa kuitawala Korea wakaamua kuigawa na wote matokeo tumeyaona.

Tena mwaka 1980-1988 Marekani na Sadam walivamia Iran lakini mwishowe badala ya kuizorotesha Iran: Iran ikawa na mabavu mara mbili ya ilivyokuwa.
Na baada ya kuondolewa vikwazo basi Irani itakuwa na mkono mrefu sana Mashariki ya kati na kwingineko.

Sasa Marekani haogopi kabisa juu ya kuifanya Syria iwe kichwa cha mwendawzimu baada ya kutangaza kutaka kuigawa?
Ni dhahiri kabisa Assad hawezi kukubali taifa lake ligawanywe na wapewe Magaidi ambao Marekani anawaita Moderates.

Hivi leo na Warusi, China na Iran waamue kuwapa silaha nyingi migambo wa Kurdish, Hezbollah and Hamas kuna kupona kweli kwa mataifa kama Uturuki, Saudi Arabia, Israel na Ulaya?

Sasa na wimbi hili la wakimbizi si kutakuwa na Migambo wengi sana kutoka Hezbollah, Kurdish militia, Syria na Iran.
Tanzania tumeshajinea madhara ya wimbi la wakimbizi na hili halihitaji kusemwa.


CC: Dotworld , kahtaan , Bukyanagandi , Elungata , Masunga Jr. , kui ,

Israel, Saudia na Uturuki, Jordan ila Syria haitakuwa Syria baada ya Vita.

 

[stormryder]

Tangu mwanzo wa vita ilikuwa ni kuigawa Syria nadhani lengi kuu ni kueendelea kwaweka watu wamashariku kulingana na milengo ya Kidini na bila shaka lilikuwa lengo la marekani kwenda Iraqi kuaanda siku hizi tunazo ziona ili kupata Ardhi mpy
Tafakari kuwepo na taifa la wakurd linalopakaana na Iran na Mshirika wa marekani kuwepo na Wassuni wenye nguvu walioizunguaka iran ya Washia...... Bila shaka marekani inawakusanya wajinga wakiislam kwa sasa ni kundi la kisha kwa ajili kuishambulia Iran kwa gharama ya Uhai wao na hahadi ya wassuni kuwa na Nguvu.

 

[stormryder]

Aisee. Me hii kitu naitazama kama movie vile. Mambo yanaji unfold yenyewe, sasa wakimbizi wa kiarabu wanabaguliwa Ulaya.
Mimi nahisi hawa watu watatwangana vita moja kuu, wakimbizi mapandikizi watasaidia kuangushwa kwa tawala babe za sasa US na wenzake. Alafu wakija kuamka kutoka kwenye vita yao, Afrika tuwe tumeshaweka mambo na mikakati yetu poa hakuna tena kima kutuingilia na kuleta fyoko fyoko.

Kinachotokea Syria was pre planned na hii ni vita inayoweza kudumu kwa Zaidi ya miaka mingine miwili, Hali ya kuchumi ya Syria lazima itakuwa mbaya na hata Askari wapo waliojitolea na hata wasiolipwa mishahara yao kwa muda kitambo, na uchumi wa Urusi ni mdogo sana kutumia 100Mil$ itakuwa ni upotevu wa fedha mkubwa, kwa hiyo Western leader wanaingaalia Russia inavojiingiza kwenye Mgogoro wa Kifedha na ili kuifanya vita iwe ya muda.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Israel, Saudia na Uturuki, Jordan ila Syria haitakuwa Syria baada ya Vita.

Its true because Syria will be a theatre of War; but my concern is the rise of State sponsored terrorism.

Taking into considerations the geographical proximity between Turkey and Syria, it makes me ask how will they deal with that?

But still, anything could happen; unlike Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt and the likes. Syria have drawn the direct interest of great nations like China and Russia.
Its not easy as we think

 

[stormryder]

Its true because Syria will be a theatre of War; but my concern is the rise of State sponsored terrorism.

Taking into considerations the geographical proximity between Turkey and Syria, it makes me ask how will they deal with that?

But still, anything could happen; unlike Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt and the likes. Syria have drawn the direct interest of great nations like China and Russia.
Its not easy as we think

To make things right for Turkey in future The Sunnis must border them, but for Kurds can't say exactly, USA has to make up something with Turks, All of these Options are good news for Israel to whom her sphere of influence in ME grow a lot more.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

To make things right for Turkey in future The Sunnis must border them, but for Kurds can't say exactly, USA has to make up something with Turks, All of these Options are good news for Israel to whom her sphere of influence in ME grow a lot more.

For that purpose you mean Northern Syria has to be controlled by the Wahabis and the likes?
And how will the Turks deal with the Kurds in Northern Syria?

 

[Nkuba25]

Mkuu Malcolm

Mimi naliona hili swala kwa namna tofauti kidogo.

Ulishawahi kujiuliza ni nani au ni taifa gani haswa aliye threat kwa marekani. Watu wengi wameshindwa kupata jibu.

Taifa lililo threat kubwa sana kwa marekani ni European Union. Kwa nini nasema hivyo:

Kwanza yakupasa utambue kwamba marekani hatapenda kuona kuna taifa au mataifa yanafanya mpango Wa kuja kuwa na uchumi zaidi yake.

Umoja wa Ulaya unaundwa na mataifa yenye uchumi wenye nguvu sana. Huu umoja ukiendelea kuwa na nguvu, marekani hatasikilizwa tena na wala hiyo UN kwao itakuwa haina nguvu.

Turudi kwenye mada.

Hili swala la wakimbizi wengi kukimbili ulaya litapelekea ulaya kuwa paala si salama kabisa na hawa waarabu wanaweza wakawa wanalipua mabomu kama wafanyavyo middle east.

Biashara kubwa zitaamishwa kwa hofu ya usalama. Masoko ya hisa hayatafanya vizuri kwa sababu ya usalama. Na ikifika hiyo hatu Eurozone lazima isambaratike. Sasa hapo lengo litakuwa limetimia.

Kwa mfano, Benki ya US iitwayo Goldman Sachs iliisaidia serikali ya ugiriki uficha kihasi halisi cha deni lake (national debt) ili iweze Ku qualify kupata mikopo kotoka EU Central Bank. Marekani alikuwa anajua mwisho wataishia wapi. Greece imekuja kusumbua sana Eurozone kutokana na hilo deni lakini Goldman Sachs hakuna hatua aliyochukuliwa.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Mkuu Malcolm

Mimi naliona hili swala kwa namna tofauti kidogo.

Ulishawahi kujiuliza ni nani au ni taifa gani haswa aliye threat kwa marekani. Watu wengi wameshindwa kupata jibu.

Taifa lililo threat kubwa sana kwa marekani ni European Union. Kwa nini nasema hivyo:

Kwanza yakupasa utambue kwamba marekani hatapenda kuona kuna taifa au mataifa yanafanya mpango Wa kuja kuwa na uchumi zaidi yake.

Umoja wa Ulaya unaundwa na mataifa yenye uchumi wenye nguvu sana. Huu umoja ukiendelea kuwa na nguvu, marekani hatasikilizwa tena na wala hiyo UN kwao itakuwa haina nguvu.

Turudi kwenye mada.

Hili swala la wakimbizi wengi kukimbili ulaya litapelekea ulaya kuwa paala si salama kabisa na hawa waarabu wanaweza wakawa wanalipua mabomu kama wafanyavyo middle east.

Biashara kubwa zitaamishwa kwa hofu ya usalama. Masoko ya hisa hayatafanya vizuri kwa sababu ya usalama. Na ikifika hiyo hatu Eurozone lazima isambaratike. Sasa hapo lengo litakuwa limetimia.

Kwa mfano, Benki ya US iitwayo Goldman Sachs iliisaidia serikali ya ugiriki uficha kihasi halisi cha deni lake (national debt) ili iweze Ku qualify kupata mikopo kotoka EU Central Bank. Marekani alikuwa anajua mwisho wataishia wapi. Greece umekuja kusumbua sana Eurozone kutokana na hilo deni lakini Goldman Sachs hakuna hatua aliyochukuliwa.

Mkuu wewe unaulewa mkubwa sana,
A United Europe is a force not to Reckon with.
America can never stand a chance against a United Europe.
Simply no nation can.

 

[Nkuba25]

Mkuu wewe unaulewa mkubwa sana,
A United Europe is a force not to Reckon with.
America can never stand a chance against a United Europe.
Simply no nation can.

Mkuu Malcom

Hapa chini ni confession aliyoifanya General Philip Breedlove, Ambaye ni Commandant wa NATO. Ameitoa wiki hii ya 1 March 2016 kwa US Senate Committee ya mambo ya Ulinzi. Hii ina maana mzozo sasa unaamia Europe.


In front of the Senate Armed Services Committee this week, top NATO General Philip Breedlove accused Moscow of siding with the Syrian President and deliberately fueling the displacement of Syrians.

“Together, Russia and the Assad regime are deliberately weaponizing migration in an attempt to overwhelm European structures and break European resolve,” Breedlove told the committee.

Insisting that the influx of migrants to Europe benefited Moscow, Breedlove noted that foreign militants who have been fighting in Syria are now returning back home, where they might use their battlefield skills.

Breedlove added that the alleged strategy was used by both Russian and Syrian presidents to create a distraction for the western countries that have been busy tackling the crisis and did not notice its root cause: “Indiscriminate weapons used by both Bashar al-Assad, and the non-precision use of weapons by the Russian forces.”

 

[nankumene]

Mkuu wewe unaulewa mkubwa sana,
A United Europe is a force not to Reckon with.
America can never stand a chance against a United Europe.
Simply no nation can.

ni kweli kabisa,sema tu daily USA wanaiaminisha dunia kwamba Russia ni threat kwa maerica kitu ambachosikweli,kwa sababu there is no way russiacan invade US or its major ally na pili russia ki economic yuko weak so hawez kuplay economic warfare na US,Sasa hapa marekani wanatambua kwamb adui si yule mwenye silaha nyingi au nuclear or what bali kwa dunia ya leo adui wa marekani ni yule anaeweza kumshinda kiuchumi na hapa bila shaka EU ukijumlisha uchumi wao wa nchi zote 28 nafkir wanaizidi kidg marekani,nafikir hata wazungu wameusoma huu mchezo wa marekani sema sasa kinachonitia shaka bwana hawa wamarekani wanajua sana kuchanga karata zao..yaan hawafanyi move bila kuwa na plani b na c,yaan wanaonaga mbali sana,,naona hata sasa uchumi wa china una mauzauza kibao yasioeleweka na yote hii wadau wanadai ni mchezo wa marekani kuleta panic kwe masoko

 

[nankumene]

Kinachotokea Syria was pre planned na hii ni vita inayoweza kudumu kwa Zaidi ya miaka mingine miwili, Hali ya kuchumi ya Syria lazima itakuwa mbaya na hata Askari wapo waliojitolea na hata wasiolipwa mishahara yao kwa muda kitambo, na uchumi wa Urusi ni mdogo sana kutumia 100Mil$ itakuwa ni upotevu wa fedha mkubwa, kwa hiyo Western leader wanaingaalia Russia inavojiingiza kwenye Mgogoro wa Kifedha na ili kuifanya vita iwe ya muda.

naionea huruma russia ambayo inashindwa ku learn from mistakes,amejiingiza syria akidhan anaweza wamaliza wapinzan wa assad faster na kurestore order chini ya assad lakini kkiukweli ile vita inaweza endelea muda mrefu sana na kuzidi kuumiza uchumi wa urusi ambao tayari unasuasua,naona hii inataka kufanana na ile invasion ya ussr afghanstan ambayo ilichangia sana ussr kucollapse,srma sasa ingawa putin asingweza shuhudia ally wao wa muda mrefu akitimuliwa pale syria so ilikua lazima amsupport

 

[nankumene]

Tangu mwanzo wa vita ilikuwa ni kuigawa Syria nadhani lengi kuu ni kueendelea kwaweka watu wamashariku kulingana na milengo ya Kidini na bila shaka lilikuwa lengo la marekani kwenda Iraqi kuaanda siku hizi tunazo ziona ili kupata Ardhi mpy
Tafakari kuwepo na taifa la wakurd linalopakaana na Iran na Mshirika wa marekani kuwepo na Wassuni wenye nguvu walioizunguaka iran ya Washia...... Bila shaka marekani inawakusanya wajinga wakiislam kwa sasa ni kundi la kisha kwa ajili kuishambulia Iran kwa gharama ya Uhai wao na hahadi ya wassuni kuwa na Nguvu.

pamoja na hilo uliloliongea mkuupia kuna issue ya gas pipe lines za qatar walizokuwa wanataka wapitishie iraq syria turkey then ziingie ulaya wakati marekani akisapoti hii russia nao walikua walijua tuu hii inataka kuua soko laolagas europe,iran nao walikua wanatak pipe yaowapitishie root hihio iende ulaya sasa hapa mtu alie katikati ya vyote hivi ni syria na alipoombwa na endorgan alikataa ndomana turkey na saudi wakamuundia zengwe...daah ila mkuu kimsingi kuna mambo complex sn pale naona kmnchi inaenda either kugawanyika au kutotawalika..watu wanata kucreate frozen conflict pale

 

[Nkuba25]

naionea huruma russia ambayo inashindwa ku learn from mistakes,amejiingiza syria akidhan anaweza wamaliza wapinzan wa assad faster na kurestore order chini ya assad lakini kkiukweli ile vita inaweza endelea muda mrefu sana na kuzidi kuumiza uchumi wa urusi ambao tayari unasuasua,naona hii inataka kufanana na ile invasion ya ussr afghanstan ambayo ilichangia sana ussr kucollapse,srma sasa ingawa putin asingweza shuhudia ally wao wa muda mrefu akitimuliwa pale syria so ilikua lazima amsupport

Mkuu nankumene

Russians wana stockpiles za silaha za muda mrefu ambazo ilikuwa wanaenda kuziteketeza kama wasingezitumia huko Syria.

Tofautisha na USA ambao wao kila siku wako vitani tu kwa hiyo inawalazimu kutengeneza silaha kila siku. Russia ametoka kupigana miaka 20 iliyopita, kwa hiyo silaha zilikuwa idle tu.

Pia kwa Russians, wamefanya vita ya Syria kama sehemu ya training kwao.

 

[nankumene]

Mkuu nankumene

Russians wana stockpiles za silaha za muda mrefu ambazo ilikuwa wanaenda kuziteketeza kama wasingezitumia huko Syria.

Tofautisha na USA ambao wao kila siku wako vitani tu kwa hiyo inawalazimu kutengeneza silaha kila siku. Russia ametoka kupigana miaka 20 iliyopita, kwa hiyo silaha zilikuwa idle tu.

Pia kwa Russians, wamefanya vita ya Syria kama sehemu ya training kwao.

mkuu vita si silaha tu,kuna gharama ya kuiweka ndege moja angani kwa kila lisaa inayoruka,kuna gharama za reconnaissance na kuhudumia base yake iliopo pale latakia...pia kuhusu us marekani nafkiri haimcost kiivyo sana kumbuka yeye ana coalition ya nchi km 34 hivi so pia wao hutumia ndege zao pia....lakini pia kumbuka hi coalition ya nchi hizo zote karibu wote wananunua missiles toka marekani hukohuko na jamaa mwaka jana wameuza idadi kubwa ya silaha kuliko 2014 sababu ikiwa ni vita ya yemen,syria na iraq so hapa anapiga bussines ya nguvu tu,pia kumbuka saudi arabia na turkey wana inginia kutuma ground troops kwa mwamvuli wa hiocoalition yao hapa itawabidi russia kuongeza ulinzi wa haliya juu kuulinda facilities zake,,pia russia walituma air defence ya kisasa kabisa s-400 na ndege za kisasa kabisa za su-34 na tanks...huwez neglect gharama inayotumika hapa kiongozu

 

[mohamedidrisa789]

mkuu vita si silaha tu,kuna gharama ya kuiweka ndege moja angani kwa kila lisaa inayoruka,kuna gharama za reconnaissance na kuhudumia base yake iliopo pale latakia...pia kuhusu us marekani nafkiri haimcost kiivyo sana kumbuka yeye ana coalition ya nchi km 34 hivi so pia wao hutumia ndege zao pia....lakini pia kumbuka hi coalition ya nchi hizo zote karibu wote wananunua missiles toka marekani hukohuko na jamaa mwaka jana wameuza idadi kubwa ya silaha kuliko 2014 sababu ikiwa ni vita ya yemen,syria na iraq so hapa anapiga bussines ya nguvu tu,pia kumbuka saudi arabia na turkey wana inginia kutuma ground troops kwa mwamvuli wa hiocoalition yao hapa itawabidi russia kuongeza ulinzi wa haliya juu kuulinda facilities zake,,pia russia walituma air defence ya kisasa kabisa s-400 na ndege za kisasa kabisa za su-34 na tanks...huwez neglect gharama inayotumika hapa kiongozu

mkuu donesk

mkuu vita si silaha tu,kuna gharama ya kuiweka ndege moja angani kwa kila lisaa inayoruka,kuna gharama za reconnaissance na kuhudumia base yake iliopo pale latakia...pia kuhusu us marekani nafkiri haimcost kiivyo sana kumbuka yeye ana coalition ya nchi km 34 hivi so pia wao hutumia ndege zao pia....lakini pia kumbuka hi coalition ya nchi hizo zote karibu wote wananunua missiles toka marekani hukohuko na jamaa mwaka jana wameuza idadi kubwa ya silaha kuliko 2014 sababu ikiwa ni vita ya yemen,syria na iraq so hapa anapiga bussines ya nguvu tu,pia kumbuka saudi arabia na turkey wana inginia kutuma ground troops kwa mwamvuli wa hiocoalition yao hapa itawabidi russia kuongeza ulinzi wa haliya juu kuulinda facilities zake,,pia russia walituma air defence ya kisasa kabisa s-400 na ndege za kisasa kabisa za su-34 na tanks...huwez neglect gharama inayotumika hapa kiongozu

mkuu donesk na luhask walipewa silaa na wanajeshi mpak jeshi la ukraine likapotez sehem kibao.na bado misaada ya vyakula kila siku vinapelekw donesk na luhask.sasa iyo pesa yote unajua inatoka wapi mkuu

 

[mohamedidrisa789]

urusi ni nchi ya kwanz dunian kw kuw na natural resources nying kuliko nchi yoyote dunian.ndo maan unaon silaa za urusi ni nzuri lakin bei rahisi,ni kw sababu material mengi wanapata saw na bure