Benki ya Dunia: Uchumi wa Tanzania unakua kwa kasi na Mfumuko wa Bei umeshuka kwa kasi

Benki ya Dunia: Uchumi wa Tanzania unakua kwa kasi na Mfumuko wa Bei umeshuka kwa kasi

Kobello said:
Okay,

inaonyesha kuwa huna na hujawahi kuleta data za Q2 2016.
Kwenye Uzi ule ni Mimi peke yangu ndiye niliyeweka excel data za NBS (in .PDF). Kwa hiyo nilijua kabisa huna na hujawahi kuona GDP data za Q2.

Kwa hiyo, ukisema uchumi umedorora/shrink/decline kwa kutumia hali unayoiona mitaani sitabisha kwa sababu Mimi sipo mitaani huko.

Ila ukisema based on data za NBS au bot, sitakubali kwa sababu maandishi yapo na data zipo na analysis mbalimbali zipo na zinaonyesha kuwa uchumi wa Tanzania unakua na upo stable.

Predictions/forecasts za GDP siyo kitu kipya na jinsi statistics na actuarial science inavyodevelop, siyo jambo LA kushangaa.

Kwa miaka kumi iliyopita IMF/WB hawakuwahi kufanya makosa +/- 10% actually +/- 5% ukiondoa 2013.

Tumia hali ya mitaani kwa sababu ukitumia data, I promise you that the likelihood of people like me - albeit needing to grow up - answering your puny comments is almost 100%.
Alamsiki.
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OK since march they havent released quarterly summaries nevertheless there are monthly reports kwa wale wenye kutaka summations zao wenyewe za quarterly; the data is there.

Going by July which is the last month of indicators released: http://www.bot.go.tz/Publications/MonthlyEconomicReviews/MER JULY 2016.pdf

From there utaona pattern ya fall on consumption, imports, prices and lower lending activities huo uchumi bado kweli utafikia annual targets growth. Nani alijua kutakua na slow down in lenging, falling prices etc. Mambo yote hayo yana implications zake na zote zinapoint uchumi unaopungua kasi.

Kama ulichangia kwenye ile thread ina maana ata link ulizopewa ukuzipitia usikariri elewa sasa hizo nazo ni data za mtaani tatizo hapo hii nchi imejengwa kwa nidhamu ya uoga hata kwenye taaluma nchi nyingine based on the evidence of those economic indicators wangemwambia mh. raisi it is not working, hizo data ni lazima wao kuziweka public kwa wakopaji wao na si wajinga upike data they can do their own audits vinginevyo ingekuwa their own free will ata wasinge publish; as for me kesho tena alamsiki.
 
boyfriendy said:
Unaongea kwa mlengo wa nje lakini haujui bomu lililopo ndani juu ya hiyo issue ya kuondoa hizo service charge watu wanahaha huko balaa usione wapo kimya hali tete
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Shed some light please, kuna nini ndani??
 
JERUSALEMU said:
Sasa tupo first quarter ya 2015/2016! Hiyo report kwa kiasi kikubwa inahusu Mwaka 2015.kimsingi tulikuwa tunafanya vizuri kuelekea mwishoni mwa Mwaka 2015 Lakini kuanzia March,2016 hali ya uchumi imeyumba sana na uwezekano wa kutulia Ni Mdogo sana.

Tatizo ninalo liona mimi ni kwamba vijana mnatumika vibaya matokeo yake hamfikiri hata kidogo! Uchumi unao kuwa unakuwa reflected katika maisha ya kila siku ya watu.Huwezi kusema uchumi unakuwa wakati watu wanakula mlo mmoja wameongezeka! Ujinga. Huwezi kusema uchumi umekuwa wakati watu wanao pikia kuni na mkaa wameongezeka. Huwezi kuniambia uchumi umeongezeka wakati watu hawana furaha sasa kuliko wakati mwingine wowote toka Nchi yetu tupate Uhuru.
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Wewe ndiyo unanifurahisha sana...yaani huo wakati uchumi ulipokuwa mzuri ndiyo milo ilikuwa mitatu then March ndiyo ikawa mmoja...mambo mengine yaacheni...kwanza prediction kwenye uchumi ni ngumu mno na hasa kama mfumo umevurugwa...economist wote wanaelewa numbers speak nothing kama hakuna subjectivity in it hasa pale ambapo equilibrium haipo...indicator za uchumi kuharibika au kutengamaa kwa intervention yeyote haipimwi siku hiyo hiyo ulipo intervene...tuache unazi...tuelekeze nguvu zetu kuujenga uchumi unao milikiwa na watu wengi...hakukuwa na uchumi wowote imara uliojengeka na sustainable tangu tulipo fanya SAP....pesa kama si zote za mauzo tulikula hakukuwa na re-investment wala transformation ya capital kwenye assets zozote...kama ni mkulima basi alikula mbegu na kama ni mfanyabiashara basi alikula mtaji...uchumi wetu kuanguka ulikuwa swala la muda tu....na sasa mgonjwa alipelekwa kwenye vipimo ndiyo anagundua utumbo wote umetobolewa na wadudu (mafisadi)
 
Kati ya BOT na WB nani anaweza kusema ukweli na watanzania tukaamini?
 
Eric Cartman said:
OK since march they havent released quarterly summaries nevertheless there are monthly reports kwa wale wenye kutaka summations zao wenyewe za quarterly; the data is there.

Going by July which is the last month of indicators released: http://www.bot.go.tz/Publications/MonthlyEconomicReviews/MER JULY 2016.pdf

From there utaona pattern ya fall on consumption, imports, prices and lower lending activities huo uchumi bado kweli utafikia annual targets growth. Nani alijua kutakua na slow down in lenging, falling prices etc. Mambo yote hayo yana implications zake na zote zinapoint uchumi unaopungua kasi.

Kama ulichangia kwenye ile thread ina maana ata link ulizopewa ukuzipitia usikariri elewa sasa hizo nazo ni data za mtaani tatizo hapo hii nchi imejengwa kwa nidhamu ya uoga hata kwenye taaluma nchi nyingine based on the evidence of those economic indicators wangemwambia mh. raisi it is not working, hizo data ni lazima wao kuziweka public kwa wakopaji wao na si wajinga upike data they can do their own audits vinginevyo ingekuwa their own free will ata wasinge publish; as for me kesho tena alamsiki.
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Eric Cartman said:
OK since march they havent released quarterly summaries nevertheless there are monthly reports kwa wale wenye kutaka summations zao wenyewe za quarterly; the data is there.

Going by July which is the last month of indicators released: http://www.bot.go.tz/Publications/MonthlyEconomicReviews/MER JULY 2016.pdf

From there utaona pattern ya fall on consumption, imports, prices and lower lending activities huo uchumi bado kweli utafikia annual targets growth. Nani alijua kutakua na slow down in lenging, falling prices etc. Mambo yote hayo yana implications zake na zote zinapoint uchumi unaopungua kasi.

Kama ulichangia kwenye ile thread ina maana ata link ulizopewa ukuzipitia usikariri elewa sasa hizo nazo ni data za mtaani tatizo hapo hii nchi imejengwa kwa nidhamu ya uoga hata kwenye taaluma nchi nyingine based on the evidence of those economic indicators wangemwambia mh. raisi it is not working, hizo data ni lazima wao kuziweka public kwa wakopaji wao na si wajinga upike data they can do their own audits vinginevyo ingekuwa their own free will ata wasinge publish; as for me kesho tena alamsiki.
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Sidhani kama kuna objective person anayebisha kuwa hayo hayajatoke. Na ilitwgemewa kabisa unapofanya wealth re-distribution lazima in a short run hiyo hali itokee. Itatisha tu kama kulikuwa hakuna plans na jinsi ya kufanya hizi transformation. Mimi nilitegemea kama taifa tungeuliza plan B ilikuwa ni ipi na tuanze kui discuss kama itatuokoa au la. Kinachonisikitisha ni watanzania kung'ang'ania it was better kuacha ku interven ili tusije haribu uchumi hapo ndipo napoona kizunguzungu...uchumi upi huo mnaoudai kuwa ulikuwepo? Labda niwaeleze tukwamba kwa muda wa miaka nane watumishi wa umma mshahara ulikuwa unapatikana kwa bahati nasibu na wala hakukuwa na consistency kwenye promotion, OC zilikuwa.hazipelekwi zaidi ya mpaka 3%, wakulima walikuwa hawajawahi pewa extension service wala kuhudumiwa hospitalini, shule zilikuwa hazina madawati wala madarasa n.k lakini kulikuwa na grouo la watu ambao safari zilikuwa haziishi, ofisi zilihamia mahotelini, ardhi ilipanda bei kupita mfano kisa pesa zimeshikiliwa na watu ambao wanauwezo wa kuspend any how....leo nitashangaa kusikia hicho ndicho wananchi wangependa kuendelea kukiona...kama hatutaki hicho kuendelea basi huwezi kuvuruga huo mfumo utegemee kuona uchumi upo imara hata huo mdogo wa wachache...swali; ili kurekebisha mlitaka Rais afanyeje?
 
Mimi kwa hisia nadhani tunao wachumi wetu ambao wamemshauri Rais na wanazo plan za kipi kifanyike ili kujenga uchumi imara...pesa zimekusanywa zote BOT wasipo zipeleka kwenye spending ambazo zitawaweka watu wengi kwenye mzunguko hapo ndipo itabidi tuamini wanatuhujumu na wameamua kutoa takwimu zao makusudi ili kumtisha kiongozi wetu alegeze kamba...Pamoja na kutoa takwimu watuambie sababu ilizopelekea takwimu kuwa hizo na plan ikuwa ipi kuhakikisha uchumi unaibuka tena kwa jibsi nyingine....waking'ang'ania ule mfumo wa zamani moja kwa moja mimi nita conclude wao niwafaidika wa huo mfumo ulio bomolewa.
 
Luharamula said:
Kati ya BOT na WB nani anaweza kusema ukweli na watanzania tukaamini?
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Kila moja anaweza kuwa na interest yake...inawezekana wote wakasema ukweli au uwongo kwa makusudio yao...
 
Huo uchumi ni wa benki ya dunia syo wetu kabisa.wetu bot inasema uko taabani sna.
 
Lizaboni tatizo umeandka kw kizungu na sie wengne wafuasi wa maDJ tutaelewa kweli..??

But ni nzuri sana hii na inatia moyo
 
Lizaboni said:
The overall macroeconomic performance remains strong with a high rate of growth and a low rate of inflation. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected at 7% for 2015. From the supply side, the main drivers of growth recently has been several fast growing sectors, such as construction, transport and financial services. Inflation has gradually declined over the past 30 months due to tight monetary policy and falling international energy and food prices. While inflation has slightly increased recently largely driven by increase in domestic food prices and possible lagged effects of sharp depreciation of the local currency during the first half of 2015, the level remains relatively low at 5.6% in February 2016.

The external sector of the economy improved following a declining current account deficit that stood at 8.1% of GDP in 2015. Export growth driven by regional trade in manufactured goods and reduced imports bill from cheaper imported oil contributed to this decline.

Although revenue performance in 2015/16 has been better than in the past few years, shortfall has been experienced in the first quarter of the FY driven largely by weak implementation of the new 2015 VAT Act. The new government is committed to 4.2% of GDP fiscal deficit target for 2015/16. The government faces additional expenditure needs, equivalent to 0.7% of GDP, coming from expenditures carried over from last FY, payment of government arrears to TANESCO, and additional fiscal space needed for provision of free basic education and expansion of higher education students’ loans program (new presidential initiatives).
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Miongoni mwa matokeo ya kukua kwa uchumi foreign exchange haikwepeki thaman ya tsh inashuka v/s usd kila siku na sasa ni 2180.8 nadhan kuna la kujifunza hapa na hiyo taarifa yako
 
Kobello said:
Okay,

inaonyesha kuwa huna na hujawahi kuleta data za Q2 2016.
Kwenye Uzi ule ni Mimi peke yangu ndiye niliyeweka excel data za NBS (in .PDF). Kwa hiyo nilijua kabisa huna na hujawahi kuona GDP data za Q2.

Kwa hiyo, ukisema uchumi umedorora/shrink/decline kwa kutumia hali unayoiona mitaani sitabisha kwa sababu Mimi sipo mitaani huko.

Ila ukisema based on data za NBS au bot, sitakubali kwa sababu maandishi yapo na data zipo na analysis mbalimbali zipo na zinaonyesha kuwa uchumi wa Tanzania unakua na upo stable.

Predictions/forecasts za GDP siyo kitu kipya na jinsi statistics na actuarial science inavyodevelop, siyo jambo LA kushangaa.

Kwa miaka kumi iliyopita IMF/WB hawakuwahi kufanya makosa +/- 10% actually +/- 5% ukiondoa 2013.

Tumia hali ya mitaani kwa sababu ukitumia data, I promise you that the likelihood of people like me - albeit needing to grow up - answering your puny comments is almost 100%.
Alamsiki.
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Tatizo kubwa ninaliona mimi na ndio ukweli ni kwamba data na situation ya wananchi ni vitu viwili tofauti.

Fact number one; Mapato ya serikali yamepanda

Fact number 2; Serikali ina pesa.
Fact number 3: Shughuli za kiuchumi zimedorora

Note: Fact number 3 ndio huleta positive results kwa wananchi kwa sababu mzunguko wa pes ndio uchumi wa mwananchi.

kumjaza Mtanzania takwimu huku anazidi kufukarika hii itaongeza chuki kwa serikali.

Mimi nasoma data na niko mtaani naona na najuwa hali ni mbaya sana, waulize hata wadada ambao wamejaaliwa kuzaliwa na uchumi wao asilia watakwambia hali halisi maisha ni magumu.

Hii ndio sababu kwa sasa ukiwaacha mashabiki wa watawala hakuna Mtanzania wa kawaida ambaye atakuelewa kumlisha takwimu huku yeye anazidi kuangamia.
 
Pamputi said:
Lizaboni tatizo umeandka kw kizungu na sie wengne wafuasi wa maDJ tutaelewa kweli..??

But ni nzuri sana hii na inatia moyo
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Ameandika au amecopy na kuja kupaste hapa? hii ni hasara kwa familia yako: naonekana wewe ndio haujasoma wala kuelewa alichokicopy Lizaboni from other source na kuja kupaste hapa.

Unajidharirisha bure.
 
Ame said:
Sidhani kama kuna objective person anayebisha kuwa hayo hayajatoke. Na ilitwgemewa kabisa unapofanya wealth re-distribution lazima in a short run hiyo hali itokee. Itatisha tu kama kulikuwa hakuna plans na jinsi ya kufanya hizi transformation. Mimi nilitegemea kama taifa tungeuliza plan B ilikuwa ni ipi na tuanze kui discuss kama itatuokoa au la. Kinachonisikitisha ni watanzania kung'ang'ania it was better kuacha ku interven ili tusije haribu uchumi hapo ndipo napoona kizunguzungu...uchumi upi huo mnaoudai kuwa ulikuwepo? Labda niwaeleze tukwamba kwa muda wa miaka nane watumishi wa umma mshahara ulikuwa unapatikana kwa bahati nasibu na wala hakukuwa na consistency kwenye promotion, OC zilikuwa.hazipelekwi zaidi ya mpaka 3%, wakulima walikuwa hawajawahi pewa extension service wala kuhudumiwa hospitalini, shule zilikuwa hazina madawati wala madarasa n.k lakini kulikuwa na grouo la watu ambao safari zilikuwa haziishi, ofisi zilihamia mahotelini, ardhi ilipanda bei kupita mfano kisa pesa zimeshikiliwa na watu ambao wanauwezo wa kuspend any how....leo nitashangaa kusikia hicho ndicho wananchi wangependa kuendelea kukiona...kama hatutaki hicho kuendelea basi huwezi kuvuruga huo mfumo utegemee kuona uchumi upo imara hata huo mdogo wa wachache...swali; ili kurekebisha mlitaka Rais afanyeje?
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At least umekuja na hoja nzuri, lakini katika Dunia hii iliyo jaa multiple solution tena ambazo well researched na kuwa implemented elsewhere, kwanini tusifuate hizo? Binafsi sikuona sababu ya kujinasibu kutoa elimu bure wakati dalili zilikuwa zinaonesha hadi asilimia 70 walikuwa na uwezo wa kulipa.Asilimia ndogo wasio weza kulipa wengi ni kwasababu hawaoni umuhimu wa elimu kwao.Hapa serikali imebeba mzigo usio wa lazima.

Kama huwapandishi wafanyakazi vyeo na mishahara, unajua nini kinafuata? Performance na hata creativity vitatoweka.Tukienda hivi kwa muda wa miaka mitano utashangaa hali ya ofisi za serikali, Magari na hata majengo itakuwa hoi bin taabani.

Hata sasa flow ya fedha kwenda kwenye Halmaahauri ni ndogo sana.shuleni hali Ni mbaya, kuna wasio weza kufanyisha mitihani ya kila mwezi fedha hawana.

Kuteua wakurugenzi wapya zaidi ya 150 wakati wale wa zamani umri Wa kustaafu bado sana ni kuongeza matumizi ya serikali bila sababu.Na ndio maana serikali imetumia bill 570 kwa mishahara badala ya bill 520 ya awali pamoja na kwamba watumishi hewa 17000 wameondolewa kwenye payroll
 
Ame said:
Tunao uchaguzi kuendelea na mafisadi wanaoshirikiana na mabeberu ili tuendelee kuwa watumwa milele au kuendelea kushikilia msimamo wa kusimamisha safari na kurudi kwenye drawing box to pick our pieces from where we fall...
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Yes but siyo kwa style hii ya muzee
 
Hiyo ripoti ilikuwa ya mwaka jana. Liz kacopy hata bila ku edit. Liz una diploma au digriii?
 
Ame said:
Sidhani kama kuna objective person anayebisha kuwa hayo hayajatoke. Na ilitwgemewa kabisa unapofanya wealth re-distribution lazima in a short run hiyo hali itokee. Itatisha tu kama kulikuwa hakuna plans na jinsi ya kufanya hizi transformation. Mimi nilitegemea kama taifa tungeuliza plan B ilikuwa ni ipi na tuanze kui discuss kama itatuokoa au la. Kinachonisikitisha ni watanzania kung'ang'ania it was better kuacha ku interven ili tusije haribu uchumi hapo ndipo napoona kizunguzungu...uchumi upi huo mnaoudai kuwa ulikuwepo? Labda niwaeleze tukwamba kwa muda wa miaka nane watumishi wa umma mshahara ulikuwa unapatikana kwa bahati nasibu na wala hakukuwa na consistency kwenye promotion, OC zilikuwa.hazipelekwi zaidi ya mpaka 3%, wakulima walikuwa hawajawahi pewa extension service wala kuhudumiwa hospitalini, shule zilikuwa hazina madawati wala madarasa n.k lakini kulikuwa na grouo la watu ambao safari zilikuwa haziishi, ofisi zilihamia mahotelini, ardhi ilipanda bei kupita mfano kisa pesa zimeshikiliwa na watu ambao wanauwezo wa kuspend any how....leo nitashangaa kusikia hicho ndicho wananchi wangependa kuendelea kukiona...kama hatutaki hicho kuendelea basi huwezi kuvuruga huo mfumo utegemee kuona uchumi upo imara hata huo mdogo wa wachache...swali; ili kurekebisha mlitaka Rais afanyeje?
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Unaposema shule zilikuwa hazina madarasa huo ni ukweli au unazi tu?. Hayo madarasa ya shule za kata hukuyaona?

Unaposema mishahara ilipatikana kwa bahati nasibu, una maana gani?, mbona mishahara ilipatikana hadi ya kuwalipa wafanyakazi hewa?.

Uchumi ni uchumi, unaposema hakukuwa na uchumi unazungumza kitu gani?, ina maana taarifa zote za watafiti waliokuwa wakisema uchumi unakuwa kwa takriban asilimia 7 walikuwa wanazungumza kitu ambacho hakikuwepo?

Ni hivi, serikali ya awamu hii imemess up big time kwenye maamuzi ya kiuchumi.

1) Imeondoa pesa za serikali kwenye mabenki ya biashara kwa shortnotice, benki hazijajiandaa ili kubadirisha lending mechanism zao za awali, matokeo yake wamesimamisha lending kwa muda. Pamoja na nia njema ya serikali, lakini ilitakiwa wakae na mabenki wazungumze win-win situation, kwamba serikali ipate gawio katika faida pindi mabenki yatakapotumia mapesa ya serikali kukopesha watu wengine, na pia utaratibu wa kutokuiumiza serikali pindi ikitaka kuzichukua hizo pesa.

2) Ishu ya VAT katika miamala ya fedha.
Kutokana na gharama za VAT kwenye miamala ya electronic sasa maisha ya watu yanakuwa magumu, watu wanatumia pesa nyingi kuservice huduma matokeo yake ile flow of " micro capital" inapungua, watu wanakuwa reluctant kufanya malipo kwa hizi huduma, watu wanakuwa reluctant kutuma pesa huko vijijini, watu masikini wanakuwa hata reluctant kuweka tudundulizo twao benki wanaamua kuweka pesa zao kwenye vibubu, hali inayopelekea hata mzunguuko wa pesa kupungua mtaani, haya mambo siyo rahisi kama unavyodhani
 
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